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View Full Version : Where to draw the line



elfmanvt07
07-18-2012, 07:06 PM
Ryan Ludwick.

From his signing through the first month or two of the season, he was pretty dreadful. However, as of late, he's been swinging the bat with a little more authority and is now hitting .236 .310 .495 with an OPS+ of 110.

Numerically, at what point do we call the Ryan Ludwick experiment a success?

RedlegJake
07-18-2012, 07:14 PM
The Petco thing really got under Ryan's skin. He's said as much in interviews. And he said it is only in the past month or so he really feels he has let go of all the changes he'd made that ruined him. Hopefully that's true and the Ludwick of the past month is the real deal going forward. I think Ludwick is a good player but I'd like a LH player to platoon on occasion. Maybe Paul can fill that role.

corkedbat
07-18-2012, 08:51 PM
The Petco thing really got under Ryan's skin. He's said as much in interviews. And he said it is only in the past month or so he really feels he has let go of all the changes he'd made that ruined him. Hopefully that's true and the Ludwick of the past month is the real deal going forward. I think Ludwick is a good player but I'd like a LH player to platoon on occasion. Maybe Paul can fill that role.

I was one who wanted to give Ludwick a shot over the winter when I became apparent they weren't going to add an impact bat. I didn't expect him to reprise his 35 HR season with the cards, but I was hoping the going from Petco to the GAB would lead to somewhat of a resurgence. I'll admit that I had almost given up on him after April and the first couple fof months, but he has been everything I was hoping for since mid-May.

dsmith421
07-18-2012, 08:53 PM
He's been better than expected but he's still got an OBP of .310. The lack of on-base skills up and down the lineup (Votto excluded) is a huge problem. I have no problem with Ludwick on the roster and as a contributor but they've got to add OBP even if it means moving him to a bench role, in my opinion.

WVRedsFan
07-18-2012, 10:36 PM
He's been better than expected but he's still got an OBP of .310. The lack of on-base skills up and down the lineup (Votto excluded) is a huge problem. I have no problem with Ludwick on the roster and as a contributor but they've got to add OBP even if it means moving him to a bench role, in my opinion.

And yet, he is OBPing 30 points higher than Stubbs and Cozart. And they at the top of the order. And he's right on Jay's heels.

Kc61
07-18-2012, 10:47 PM
Against right handed pitching (assuming tonight's game not included):

Ludwick - .298 OBP, .230 BA.

Cozart - .285 OBP, .237 BA.

Stubbs - .281 OBP, .203 BA.

Rolen - .270 OBP, .193 BA.

Any team starting these four guys against RHP, in a National League lineup with the pitcher hitting, is going to have trouble many nights.

Ludwick's power has been a plus, he's played good defense, but I wouldn't agree that the experiment is a success. Agree with dsmith's post.

corkedbat
07-18-2012, 11:20 PM
nm

corkedbat
07-18-2012, 11:20 PM
Against right handed pitching (assuming tonight's game not included):

Ludwick - .298 OBP, .230 BA.

Cozart - .285 OBP, .237 BA.

Stubbs - .281 OBP, .203 BA.

Rolen - .270 OBP, .193 BA.

Any team starting these four guys against RHP, in a National League lineup with the pitcher hitting, is going to have trouble many nights.

Ludwick's power has been a plus, he's played good defense, but I wouldn't agree that the experiment is a success. Agree with dsmith's post.

This is why I'd try to replace Cairo with one of Dexter Fowler, Dennard Span or Ben Revere to split time with Stubbs in CF AND replace a reliever with Mark Kotsay, Adam Lind or Russell Branyan.

Kc61
07-18-2012, 11:46 PM
This is why I'd try to replace Cairo with one of Dexter Fowler, Dennard Span or Ben Revere to split time with Stubbs in CF AND replace a reliever with Mark Kotsay, Adam Lind or Russell Branyan.

I doubt the Reds will go with 11 pitchers. If they add two hitters, I think Cairo will go along with one of the current outfielders other than Bruce.

WVRedsFan
07-19-2012, 12:13 AM
I doubt the Reds will go with 11 pitchers. If they add two hitters, I think Cairo will go along with one of the current outfielders other than Bruce.

Branyan? OK.

Dusty won't stand for getting rid of Cairo.

Brutus
07-19-2012, 12:25 AM
Against right handed pitching (assuming tonight's game not included):

Ludwick - .298 OBP, .230 BA.

Cozart - .285 OBP, .237 BA.

Stubbs - .281 OBP, .203 BA.

Rolen - .270 OBP, .193 BA.

Any team starting these four guys against RHP, in a National League lineup with the pitcher hitting, is going to have trouble many nights.

Ludwick's power has been a plus, he's played good defense, but I wouldn't agree that the experiment is a success. Agree with dsmith's post.

You keep using this refrain about RHP/LHP splits over and over in every thread, but Ludwick's career OPS against RHP is better than against LHP. He has always hit RHP better than left. It's likely this number is nothing more than an anomaly.

vic715
07-19-2012, 12:32 AM
This is why I'd try to replace Cairo with one of Dexter Fowler, Dennard Span or Ben Revere to split time with Stubbs in CF AND replace a reliever with Mark Kotsay, Adam Lind or Russell Branyan.

If they can get Fowler and I wish they could then he won't be splitting time with anyone.He won't come cheap either.

Kc61
07-19-2012, 12:48 AM
You keep using this refrain about RHP/LHP splits over and over in every thread, but Ludwick's career OPS against RHP is better than against LHP. He has always hit RHP better than left. It's likely this number is nothing more than an anomaly.

I won't personalize my response, I'll leave that tone to you.

But the facts are that Ludwick hasn't hit well against RHP in the OBP and BA areas for over 800 (overall) plate appearances, almost 600 of which were against RHP, over two years. Any good career numbers in these areas date back to 2010.

Last season Ludwick had a .297 OBP against RHP. This season it is .298.
Last season Ludwick had a .228 BA against RHP. This season it is .230.

In both the 2011 and 2012 (to date) seasons his OBP/BA numbers against lefties were better than these numbers against RHP.

Yes, it is possible he will suddenly revert to his 2010 form. And yes, he does have good power and has played good defense.

But I agree with those who think Ludwick might be more valuable platooning. And I wouldn't rule out LF as an area for improvement.

klw
07-19-2012, 09:11 AM
We draw the line here no farther.
Picard and Sheldon - the line must be drawn here - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGHorPRWx8I)

Sorry, continue discussion. Ludwick had very low BABIP early in the year. That has been recovering. Looks to me that he has earned the LF and 4 spot. Frees Heisey up to be used as the 4th OF and PH- roles he seems to thrive in. If this continues it will allow BP to move back to leadoff when Votto returns. Ludwick spoke before the season of his approach being distorted by playing in San Diego. Hopefully his improvement/ rejuvination and clutch hits continue.

jhu1321
07-19-2012, 09:18 AM
If they can get Fowler and I wish they could then he won't be splitting time with anyone.He won't come cheap either.

I don't think Span or Revere would be splitting time either.

Brutus
07-19-2012, 04:35 PM
I won't personalize my response, I'll leave that tone to you.

But the facts are that Ludwick hasn't hit well against RHP in the OBP and BA areas for over 800 (overall) plate appearances, almost 600 of which were against RHP, over two years. Any good career numbers in these areas date back to 2010.

Last season Ludwick had a .297 OBP against RHP. This season it is .298.
Last season Ludwick had a .228 BA against RHP. This season it is .230.

In both the 2011 and 2012 (to date) seasons his OBP/BA numbers against lefties were better than these numbers against RHP.

Yes, it is possible he will suddenly revert to his 2010 form. And yes, he does have good power and has played good defense.

But I agree with those who think Ludwick might be more valuable platooning. And I wouldn't rule out LF as an area for improvement.

The facts are there's nothing magical about a sample of 600 PAs against RHP other than it serves to cherry-pick a narrative that doesn't otherwise exist if one looks at the big picture.

Kc61
07-19-2012, 05:32 PM
The facts are there's nothing magical about a sample of 600 PAs against RHP other than it serves to cherry-pick a narrative that doesn't otherwise exist if one looks at the big picture.

Cherry picking? Nah.

Just looking at all of last year. And all of this year. Ludwick's OBP and BA against righties have been subpar; and worse than the same measures against lefties.

As I said before, his earlier years were better against RHP. If you prefer to rely on career stats as influenced by more historical numbers, be my guest.

Concentrating on the team right now, I'm focused on more current data, in this case the trend over the past two seasons.

To each his own.

Tom Servo
07-19-2012, 05:52 PM
I already consider the Ludwick signing a success.

RedlegJake
07-19-2012, 05:52 PM
I think Lud's been valuable but not above replacement valuable - speaking in "getting another player by trade" terms rather than statistical "replacement value". Either someone LH to platoon or a better full time player. He's certainly hitting better but he's still not the cat's meow.