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View Full Version : Nick Travieso to make first pro start Sunday, July 22nd



OnBaseMachine
07-20-2012, 03:53 PM
According to his own twitter:

Live BP felt amazing today! Looking forward to my first start Sunday! #Reds #FF #DD #GOE

https://twitter.com/NTravieso21

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 04:06 PM
I love how the starting pitching depth is spaced in the Red farm system.

They have Corcino, Suluran, Lotzkar, and Cingrani nearly ready now. At least one of them should make the jump successfully to AAA and would replace Arroyo after the 2013 season.
Over the next couple seasons, as Leake, Bailey, and Latos become more expensive, at least one of the others would likely replace the most expensive/ least productive of the major league trio. Quezada and Rogers provide intriguing but low ceiling depth should there be struggles or injuries over the next couple seasons. (An added bonus-- Red brass will likely be patient with high upside young arms, allowing them to show their true major league colors.) Then, as free agency/ big raises in arbitration loom, Stephenson and Tavieso are scheduled to be ready.

Assuming health, it's the perfect storm for keeping costs down and still having an effective rotation.

If you can't have blue chip hurlers at every level every year, this is a nice fall-back option.

The Rage
07-20-2012, 04:32 PM
Lotzkar isn't close to being ready and Sulbaran should move to the pen. The main 2 Reds pitching prospects are Cingrani and Corcino who both have questions and may end up as pen arms. Lotzkar is the only guy that has the complete tools to be a starter right now. But with his past injury history and struggles in AA, he is a 2 years off at least.

The next best pitching prospect who profiles as a starter is Mr.Stephenson down in rookie ball. Explains why the Reds drafted another arm.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 04:50 PM
Lotzkar, Corcino, Sulburan, and Cingrani will have been either exposed as pretenders or learned enough to continue to dominate opposing minor leaguers by the end of 2013. (And that's conservative with at least two of them.)

Arroyo will be a free agent at the end of the 2013 season. Bailey, Leake, and Latos will be free agents in 2016 and arbitration eligible in 2013.

That's six possible starting prospects/ candidates (with Chapman and Hoover, if they wish) to fill somewhere between one and four spots in the major league rotation in 2014.

That's an enviable situation to be in.

After that shakes out, you've got a couple guys with stuff and production enough to be considered for depth-- sixth or seventh starters, if you will. They should be ready a year or two after the aforementioned battle royale works out.

Then, at the end of 2015, you've got Stephenson and perhaps Travieso as free agent insurance.

Benihana
07-20-2012, 04:51 PM
Lotzkar isn't close to being ready and Sulbaran should move to the pen. The main 2 Reds pitching prospects are Cingrani and Corcino who both have questions and may end up as pen arms. Lotzkar is the only guy that has the complete tools to be a starter right now. But with his past injury history and struggles in AA, he is a 2 years off at least.

The next best pitching prospect who profiles as a starter is Mr.Stephenson down in rookie ball. Explains why the Reds drafted another arm.

Agree on all fronts, except I think you may be a little harsh on Corcino and Cingrani:

Lotzkar still needs at least 2 more years in minor league development (during which he needs to stay healthy).
Sulbaran should probably move to the 'pen.
Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson, and Travieso are likely the Reds best pitching prospects in that order (although Lotzkar currently sits at #5 and could vault up the charts if/when he finds his control).
Stephenson and Travieso are both probably 3-4 years away from big league consideration.
Corcino and especially Cingrani could wind up in the 'pen, but at this point they both look like two pretty good starting pitching prospects that could be ready as soon as late next season or definitely OD 2014.

The Rage
07-20-2012, 04:54 PM
Agree on all fronts, except I think you may be a little harsh on Corcino and Cingrani:

Lotzkar still needs at least 2 more years in minor league development (during which he needs to stay healthy).
Sulbaran should probably move to the 'pen.
Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson, and Travieso are likely the Reds best pitching prospects in that order (although Lotzkar currently sits at #5 and could vault up the charts if/when he finds his control).
Stephenson and Travieso are both probably 3-4 years away from big league consideration.
Corcino and especially Cingrani could wind up in the 'pen, but at this point they both look like two pretty good starting pitching prospects that could be ready as soon as late next season or definitely OD 2014.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I am not saying Corcino or Cingrani are pen bound for sure, but they do have the questions. Stephenson is the only guy that doesn't have those questions. We just hope he can stay healthy. Getting another good arm in there to increase talent was necessary. Hopefully by this time next year, the Reds can load up on bats.

Vottomatic
07-20-2012, 05:33 PM
I'd like to see them move Hoover back to starting at Louisville. It would increase his value, either for the future with the Reds or in trade for need.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 06:24 PM
Hoover may be needed in the second half of the season.

I would stretch him out next season if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training (though I'm guessing he will).

mth123
07-20-2012, 07:29 PM
Nobody thinks Villareal could be a back end of the rotation guy? I get kind of an Elizardo vibe about him, but I think he at least should get a look and be in the conversation.

Hoover is a reliever. Its where his value lies and probably would be better out of Cincy. He'd be a guy I'd be offering around to try to get a bat.

dougdirt
07-20-2012, 07:35 PM
Nobody thinks Villareal could be a back end of the rotation guy? I get kind of an Elizardo vibe about him, but I think he at least should get a look and be in the conversation.

Hoover is a reliever. Its where his value lies and probably would be better out of Cincy. He'd be a guy I'd be offering around to try to get a bat.

I think Villarreal is a back end guy and I would say he is more than Elizardo was. Better stuff. Control isn't quite as good, but it is still pretty good. Villarreal has two above average pitches to his name.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 07:55 PM
Hoover is a reliever. Its where his value lies and probably would be better out of Cincy. He'd be a guy I'd be offering around to try to get a bat.

Hoover's minor league starting numbers are more than solid. His last season as a full-time starter, as a 22-year-old in A+ and AA, he went 14-7 with a 3.29 ERA with more IP than hits allowed (153.1 - 141). He also had an 8.9 K/9 that season. The only reason he was moved to the pen was because Atlanta had a ton of young starters.

While he's not an ace, he'd be more than adequate as a MOR guy for a few years.

As a bullpen arm, he's a shut-down back-end guy. He's toying with AAA hitters so far this season.

There's absolutely no reason to deal a cheap, effective reliever with above average stuff unless you're receiving a guy that's well above average. Far better to deal the more expensive Arredondo.

mth123
07-20-2012, 08:11 PM
Hoover's minor league starting numbers are more than solid. His last season as a full-time starter, as a 22-year-old in A+ and AA, he went 14-7 with a 3.29 ERA with more IP than hits allowed (153.1 - 141). He also had an 8.9 K/9 that season. The only reason he was moved to the pen was because Atlanta had a ton of young starters.

While he's not an ace, he'd be more than adequate as a MOR guy for a few years.

As a bullpen arm, he's a shut-down back-end guy. He's toying with AAA hitters so far this season.

There's absolutely no reason to deal a cheap, effective reliever with above average stuff unless you're receiving a guy that's well above average. Far better to deal the more expensive Arredondo.

What would you get for Arredondo? A rebuilding team wants more years of control. A contender isn't giving a bat. A team with a bat to offer is after a piece for the future. I'd rather deal Hoover than Cingrani, Corcino, H-Rod, Didi or Hamilton. They don't want Ondrusek or Arredondo. A contender might take those guys, but would only offer fringe prospects IMO.

Hoover is a fly ball machine. He looks an awful lot like Sam Lecure to me. Lecure as a 22 Y/O in A+ 3.43 ERA, with 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. The Braves knew what they were doing when they moved him to the pen. He went from a fringe AAAA starting prospect to a pretty good back of the bullpen prospect. I doubt he'd draw much interest as a starter.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 08:28 PM
A fly ball machine? You're judging Hoover on the 18 IP in the majors?

Really?

Wow.

dougdirt
07-20-2012, 08:33 PM
A fly ball machine? You're judging Hoover on the 18 IP in the majors?

Really?

Wow.

To be fair, Hoover has been a rather big fly ball pitcher in the minors too. His GB rate from 2010-2012 is 35.6%. Translate that to the Majors and he would rank him 20th in the Majors this season in terms of highest non-groundball rate among the 211 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 10:18 PM
Where does it rank in minor league baseball? In the Southern League? In AAA/ International League?

(I'd look but can't find where you're getting ground ball rates from.)

dougdirt
07-20-2012, 10:26 PM
Where does it rank in minor league baseball? In the Southern League? In AAA/ International League?

(I'd look but can't find where you're getting ground ball rates from.)

I don't know where it ranks, but it will be near the bottom. That simply is a poor rate. You aren't really going to be able to look up how far down it is because firstinning.com doesn't have a leaderboard that is sortable all that far down.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 10:35 PM
I'll do the research-- that's part of the fun.

It'll take a few hours, though.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 11:15 PM
Hoover's overall professional GB rate-- including the 18 IP with Cincinnati this year-- is around 38%. (He's had a ton of really small IP lines from various leagues making this a lot harder than it should be. His three longest stints in one place are, not so coincidentally, the places where he's shown the highest GB rates-- at 47%, 42%, and 31%. The 31% GB rate came from only 81 IP though.)

That's about even with the following major league starters:
Bruce Chen
Johan Santana
Colby Lewis
Phil Hughes
Mike Minor
Jake Peavy
Matt Cain
Ian Kennedy
Hector Noesi
Max Scherzer
Wei-Yin Chen
Jered Weaver
Ubaldo Jimenez
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Moore
Dan Haren
Jason Vargas
Tommy Milone
Jeremy Hellickson
Aaron Harang
James McDonald
Josh Beckett
Justin Verlander

and the following closers:
Rafael Soriano
Rafael Betancourt
Ernesto Fireri
Addison Reed
Tyler Clippard
Kenley Jansen
Carlos Marmol
Jose Valverde
Frank Francisco
Joel Hanrahan
Alfredo Alceves
Aroldis Chapman

Dan
07-22-2012, 07:11 AM
There's something about Travieso that makes me think he's going to fly through the organization. He strikes me as having a VERY good head on his shoulders - competitive bulldog to the Nth degree, but understanding that there are a lot of things he needs to learn and willing to learn them. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Reds uniform before he turns 21.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2012, 07:42 AM
I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Reds uniform before he turns 21.

I would. 20 is very, very young, especially for a pitcher. Nothing against Travieso, of course.

Dan
07-22-2012, 09:00 AM
I would. 20 is very, very young, especially for a pitcher. Nothing against Travieso, of course.

I may have been mistaken. I thought he was still 17 which would have given him three full years in the minors before he turned 21. But his birthday is in January. So I will revise and say he'll make his debut before his 22ND birthday.

bellhead
07-22-2012, 11:56 AM
I'd say 23...

That way he could throw 180 innings his first year.

membengal
07-22-2012, 02:25 PM
Like with Stephenson, I am thrilled with what's in line ahead of Travieso, and look forward to the club NOT having to rush him.

The Rage
07-22-2012, 02:52 PM
I think a pitcher should be promoted when they are ready, doesn't really matter the age.

You get guys like Kershaw and Cain........then you have the Jason Schmidts.

redsmetz
07-22-2012, 04:02 PM
So just out of curiousity, did Travieso actually make his debut?

dougdirt
07-22-2012, 04:05 PM
So just out of curiousity, did Travieso actually make his debut?

Not yet. They don't begin until 10pm out in Arizona.

Vottomatic
07-22-2012, 10:28 PM
Travieso so far - 1 IP, 0 hits, 0 walks, 1 K.

Vottomatic
07-22-2012, 10:28 PM
Travieso so far - 1 IP, 0 hits, 0 walks, 1 K.

.....and looks like that's it for him. Box score shows Wandy Peralta in to pitch the second inning for the AZL Reds.

Edit: More detail. His 3 outs he recorded were 2 ground outs and a K.

Blitz Dorsey
07-23-2012, 03:59 PM
Anyone else concerned about Travieso's inability to go deep into games?

Kidding. Nice first start for the kid. For some reason, I didn't like the pick when it was first announced (probably because of BS Mock Drafts from people like Keith Law who projected Tanner Rahier would be a first-round, but didn't have Travieso listed as a first-rounder). However, since about 10 minutes after the pick was announced until now, I absolutely love it. Nice find to get a power arm with good mechanics and a quality arsenal of pitches with the No. 14 pick.

medford
07-23-2012, 04:16 PM
Anyone else concerned about Travieso's inability to go deep into games?

Kidding. Nice first start for the kid. For some reason, I didn't like the pick when it was first announced (probably because of BS Mock Drafts from people like Keith Law who projected Tanner Rahier would be a first-round, but didn't have Travieso listed as a first-rounder). However, since about 10 minutes after the pick was announced until now, I absolutely love it. Nice find to get a power arm with good mechanics and a quality arsenal of pitches with the No. 14 pick.

I agree with this, though I'll admit 99.9999% of my baseball draft knowledge comes from what people say and quote on this site, so I wasn't upset so much as I was "well nobody mentioned him", however after reading up on him, I came away very impressed.

Now, let the Reds fan in me dream a little dream and imagine that both Travieso and Stephenson become all that and a bag of chips. They sure would arrive in the majors just as Latos and Cueto hit free agency (unless the Reds extend them prior to free agency) and as Homer and Leake are getting expensive. After years of struggling to produce middle to top of the rotation starting pitchers from the draft, up thru the minors and into the ML rotation, it sure would be nice to have 2 more in that vein to replace the handful the Reds have today. Throw in the starting arms in AA right now and the Reds are going to have some real solid trading chips or replacements in the pipeline. The potential (some would suspectial) cost savings in middle to top of rotation arms these guys could be in the majors in 4-6 seasons could really help balance out Joey's large contract in terms of team payroll and the limitations Cincy faces in the current market places compared to teams like the Yankees, Red Sox & Cubs.

The ducks certainly seem to be aligning themselves both at the majors and in the minors for a long, extended 10+ season run.

texasdave
07-23-2012, 04:41 PM
keithlaw Reds RHP Nick Travieso 90-92 in his first pro inning.

RedlegJake
07-23-2012, 05:05 PM
Kudos for Travieso. Also on the pitching in the future, besides the pitchers in the system between now and 2016, remember the drafts between now and then, too and the bonus picks we'll be lined up to get as well. The Reds should get 2 maybe 3 extra picks in the next 4 or 5 years in the bonus pool. All together that's a lot of good first rounders. Some will be pitchers, maybe college arms that would move fast enough to be in the mix by 2016 anyway. I'd hope they aggressively follow a trade for prospects philosophy when they have someone in line to replace them. Not just to do it, of course, but if Stephenson is obviously ready and Bailey is going to be a FA, then make a deadline deal and keep the system loaded. Done intelligently, a small market team can keep itself rolling but it has to develop players.