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View Full Version : The Cardinals should be 20 games above .500



RBA
07-22-2012, 03:12 PM
Says Wainwright

"I feel the team we have this year is better than almost every team we’ve played — by a long stretch."


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/wainwright-says-cards-are-championship-caliber/article_70e7b27f-628b-50b9-8f6b-00d834ac9502.html

:laugh:

The Operator
07-22-2012, 03:14 PM
Gotta love it.

Unless they fix their gas can bullpen, they won't be running away from anyone any time soon.

kaldaniels
07-22-2012, 03:16 PM
At one point in the last two years I really gave Wainwright some credit on here for seemingly being a decent guy.

Nope, he's a Cardinal.

Tom Servo
07-22-2012, 03:23 PM
Sad Bill Cosby - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5pCsFw3OsU)

HokieRed
07-22-2012, 03:24 PM
Implicit criticism of the mgr. for not being TLR?

Big Klu
07-22-2012, 03:51 PM
Gotta love it.

Unless they fix their gas can bullpen, they won't be running away from anyone any time soon.

Well, maybe the Cubs and Astros.

Vottomatic
07-22-2012, 04:55 PM
Cardinal fans, players, managers, coaches, management, owners need to be cut some slack because it's just part of their makeup to say stupid stuff.

Tommyjohn25
07-22-2012, 04:56 PM
At one point in the last two years I really gave Wainwright some credit on here for seemingly being a decent guy.

Nope, he's a Cardinal.

Same here. Oh well.

edabbs44
07-22-2012, 04:59 PM
Is there anything wrong with what he said? He is trying to wake his team up.

Don't think it was all that bad.

Screwball
07-22-2012, 05:20 PM
Is there anything wrong with what he said?

Aside from being flat wrong, no, I guess not.

Tommyjohn25
07-22-2012, 05:25 PM
IMO when a player gives that generic "we are/were the better team" comment, it's nothing but excuses because you aren't ready to admit your teams shortcomings. Which doesn't surprise me coming from the team, but the player does surprise a bit.

DGullett35
07-22-2012, 05:27 PM
If they had a pen and could stay healthy they probably would be 20 games over. Maybe hes calling out Matheny. Probably not but just a guess

kaldaniels
07-22-2012, 05:29 PM
Is there anything wrong with what he said? He is trying to wake his team up.

Don't think it was all that bad.

It was the "by a long stretch" bit that is laughable. If Wainwright said "we can compete with" or even "we believe we are good as", I could totally get behind that.

However Edd, he said he thinks the Cardinals are better than most teams by a long stretch....that's not too much?

edabbs44
07-22-2012, 06:06 PM
It was the "by a long stretch" bit that is laughable. If Wainwright said "we can compete with" or even "we believe we are good as", I could totally get behind that.

However Edd, he said he thinks the Cardinals are better than most teams by a long stretch....that's not too much?

Too much? Maybe. I know I don't agree with it, but is it completely off the wall? They have the best offense in the NL (even while dealing with injuries) and are getting some damn good starting pitching.

Their team is solid. I don't watch them all the time, but to be honest I'm worried more about them that Pitt the way it currently stands.

OldXOhio
07-22-2012, 06:53 PM
At one point in the last two years I really gave Wainwright some credit on here for seemingly being a decent guy.

Nope, he's a Cardinal.

So he's a bad guy bc he thinks his team is the best in the league?

nate
07-22-2012, 06:57 PM
I don't see anything wrong with what he said. Based on run differential, the Cards should have a much better record. As nice as it is to see them in 3rd, I'm more worried about them than the Pirates.

_Sir_Charles_
07-22-2012, 07:00 PM
Is there anything wrong with what he said? He is trying to wake his team up.

Don't think it was all that bad.

I certainly didn't see anything bad about with what he said. You always want your players to think they've got the best team. You want them to feel that they should always win. I think it's pretty clear that they're underperforming when you consider their run differential. That run differential was boosted quite significantly by playing bad teams with bad pitching in the first quarter of the season. They had a +75 run differential by MAY 9th!!! Since then it's more in line with their true nature....+11.

But all that being said, I disagree with him obviously. They'll finish considerably out of it IMO.

Always Red
07-22-2012, 07:20 PM
No problem with what Wainwright said at all; both Phillips and Arroyo have said roughly the same in years past.

As others here have said, I think he's indicting his own team more than anything else. It's a vet thing to say, and he's a leader on that team.

VR
07-22-2012, 07:23 PM
I don't see anything wrong with what he said. Based on run differential, the Cards should have a much better record. As nice as it is to see them in 3rd, I'm more worried about them than the Pirates.

He's 100% right, which makes it all the sweeter. :-)

Their overall hitting is ridiculous. They've had starters pitch WAY above their heads.....and yet they are scuffling around .500.


Sweet, sweet nectar.

Blitz Dorsey
07-22-2012, 07:35 PM
I thought for sure this thread was going to be about "run differential."

Also, what's amazing is the Reds are actually approaching 20 games over .500.

Scrap Irony
07-22-2012, 07:40 PM
I don't see anything wrong with what he said. Based on run differential, the Cards should have a much better record. As nice as it is to see them in 3rd, I'm more worried about them than the Pirates.

I'd agree with you except:

1) The Redbird starting staff has five guys right now who project to be near league average one way or another. None of them are currently aces. (Garcia and Wainwright due to injury recovery, the others due to the back of their career baseball cards. Lohse and Lynn have overachieved to this point; expectations are that they'll underachieve the rest of the way. Kelly, Westbrook, Wainwright, and Garcia are all giving up more hits than IP, but two of them have OPS+ well above average. They should take a hit there. The other two are, as stated earlier, injury recoveries. You just don't know what to expect from them. Too, even if they're good, they're going to be babied.

2) The Cardinal bullpen has only two above average arms. The others are well below average. Any close game will end up with a huge advantage to the opposing team. With starters expected to regress, the pen becomes more important. If the pen's already a gas can, it's likely to remain at least as bad-- or get even worse-- in the season's dog days.

3) The offense has largely played above its head. Allen Craig isn't this good. Same Neck Tats and Schumaker. You could normally say that seasons equal out as the season progresses, but, really, there isn't a Cardinal who's had a poor offensive season aside from Descalo. Everyone else has hit as the league average-ish or better level up to this point. Expect their offense to take a slight hit just on averages working out.

4) They're old and have injury histories. Berkman, Furcal, Freese, and Beltran are all injury-prone. Holliday missed significant time last season. Furcal, Beltran, and Molina have all been ridden hard up until now-- perhaps they don't break down. But Beltran's missed major time five of the past six seasons. Furcal has had one full season in his last five as well. Molina's a catcher and most catchers tend to tail off as they play a ton of innings. Molina's playing a ton of innings.

5) Their schedule going forward is tough. Much tougher, in fact, than either Cincinnati's or Pittsburgh's. They've got 37 second-half games against either first or second-place teams in their respective divisions. They have to play Washington two series, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh three each, and LA two. They also have a series against San Francisco, another against the Phillies, and one with the Mets. In short, it's a long row to hoe.

jojo
07-22-2012, 07:59 PM
Pythag says the Cards should be like 16 over so Wainright really isn't talking crazy talk about their record. Whether one believes its a house of Cards or not is another matter....

klw
07-22-2012, 08:23 PM
ESPN's Pythag has the Cards as an expected 18 over 500 coming into today's win.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

Caveat Emperor
07-22-2012, 08:28 PM
Implicit criticism of the mgr. for not being TLR?

Ding ding.

Slyder
07-22-2012, 08:34 PM
Says Wainwright

"I feel the team we have this year is better than almost every team we’ve played — by a long stretch."


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/wainwright-says-cards-are-championship-caliber/article_70e7b27f-628b-50b9-8f6b-00d834ac9502.html

:laugh:

Its good to see the crap hasn't stopped since LaRussa is gone. :lol:

Tom Servo
07-22-2012, 08:37 PM
The Cardinals have 11 games where they have scored over 10 runs. In 20 games they have scored between 6 and 9 runs. In their other 63 games, they have scored 5 runs or less. In 37 of those 63 games, they've scored 3 runs or less. They have been shut out in 6 of those games.


There offense is real good, but I think the pythag can be skewered. I believe in pythag a lot, but I don't see the Cardinals as a 55-39 team no matter what it says.

_Sir_Charles_
07-23-2012, 07:20 PM
Pythag says the Cards should be like 16 over so Wainright really isn't talking crazy talk about their record. Whether one believes its a house of Cards or not is another matter....

This is one of those times I just don't buy into Pythag. The cards feasted on horrible pitching early on. Check out their record against teams with winning records (36-24 against losing teams / 14-21 against winning ones). If a game is remotely close, they lose it. But when they win, they blow out the opponent. They feasted on us when Latos was going bad at the start of the season (and a few other starters who started off poorly). Their offense, while good, was nowhere close to being able to sustain that first month start that they had. Since that first month, they're like +10 or +15 runs. I'm sorry...Pythag is just wrong here.

fearofpopvol1
07-25-2012, 02:49 AM
If we were to buy into the Cards pythag, they would be the best team in baseball as of today. I just don't see that. But with that said, I do think they are better than their record for sure.

The good news is that the Cards August looks to be tough.

MikeThierry
07-26-2012, 12:12 PM
I think Waino was just trying to show confidence in his team. What else is he supposed to say? I also don't feel he's too far off. The Cards are the best offensive team in the NL and suprisingly have the 3rd best starter ERA in baseball. They certainly should be better than their record shows. I don't know about 20 games better though.

The Cards are starting to figure out some things in the bullpen and they've been better as of late so I could see them making a push in the next two months.


The Redbird starting staff has five guys right now who project to be near league average one way or another. None of them are currently aces. (Garcia and Wainwright due to injury recovery, the others due to the back of their career baseball cards. Lohse and Lynn have overachieved to this point; expectations are that they'll underachieve the rest of the way. Kelly, Westbrook, Wainwright, and Garcia are all giving up more hits than IP, but two of them have OPS+ well above average. They should take a hit there. The other two are, as stated earlier, injury recoveries. You just don't know what to expect from them. Too, even if they're good, they're going to be babied.


I know many people here still think Lohse is league average but he hasn't been league average for the past two years. You say he's overachieved (just like many said he did last year) but I'm willing to bet he's actually figured out how to pitch once he worked with a competent pitching coach in St. Louis. Ever since his freak injury two years ago, he's been one of the most reliable pitchers for the Cards. He's also in a contract year this year so I expect him to remain a good pitcher. There's also a reason why Lance Lynn was taken in the first round. He's a damn good pitcher. You can think he's over achieved all you want but he has legit stuff with a very good fastball. Westbrook is actually now using his slider more instead of relying just on his sinker. That's why he's been pretty good this year and has gone 2-2 with a 3 ERA in the past 28 days.

Garcia has been injured most of the year so I don't know why he is in this conversation. Joe Kelly is just a year removed from AA ball so it's silly to think that you or I know anything of what he can be at the major league level. Certainly, he was not on the radar as far as the top prospects go but at the same time, I love his stuff. His fastball is averaging a surprising 93.8 MPH. I never knew he had that kind of FB speed. He needs to cut down on his walks but at the same time, he's been effective since he's been here.

MikeThierry
07-26-2012, 12:25 PM
The other thing...Allen Craig IS this good. He's hit at every level and did what he is doing this year last year. He's a legit middle of the order bat. The intelligent thing to do is just accept it instead of trying to rack your brain as to how Craig is doing it. He would be starting on most teams if not all teams in baseball.

PuffyPig
07-26-2012, 12:30 PM
II know many people here still think Lohse is league average but he hasn't been league average for the past two years. You say he's overachieved (just like many said he did last year) but I'm willing to bet he's actually figured out how to pitch once he worked with a competent pitching coach in St. Louis.

Lohse in the last two years has an xFIP in the low 4's, which is league average.
He's getting all the luck that wainwright isn't.

But the Cards are a contender. I still fear tham quite a bit more than the Pirates.

I expect both the Reds and the Cards to make the playoffs.

reds44
07-26-2012, 12:35 PM
The other thing...Allen Craig IS this good. He's hit at every level and did what he is doing this year last year. He's a legit middle of the order bat. The intelligent thing to do is just accept it instead of trying to rack your brain as to how Craig is doing it. He would be starting on most teams if not all teams in baseball.
So Allen Craig is going to spend the rest of his career playing everyday and being a.950 OPS bat?

I'm going to say no.

Benihana
07-26-2012, 12:53 PM
Another reason why the Reds need to improve themselves this week through trade(s). Don't be fooled- the Cardinals could be a sleeping giant and the Pirates are being aggressive according to reports.

MikeThierry
07-26-2012, 01:23 PM
Lohse in the last two years has an xFIP in the low 4's, which is league average.
He's getting all the luck that wainwright isn't.

But the Cards are a contender. I still fear tham quite a bit more than the Pirates.

I expect both the Reds and the Cards to make the playoffs.

Ok... you can keep looking at the xFIP numbers all you want (which I think is a deceptive stat to begin with ) but Lohse still gives the Cardinals quality start after quality start and gives them a heck of a chance to win. You can keep believing he's been lucky for the past two years now if that makes you sleep better at night. I'll believe that he's actually a quality pitcher and gives the teams he plays for a chance to win.



So Allen Craig is going to spend the rest of his career playing everyday and being a.950 OPS bat?

I'm going to say no.

No, but I feel he can average around a .875- .900 OPS for his career. That would still make him a top flight hitter that would be starting on pretty much all teams.


Another reason why the Reds need to improve themselves this week through trade(s). Don't be fooled- the Cardinals could be a sleeping giant and the Pirates are being aggressive according to reports.

It looks like the Cards have figured things in the bullpen. I'm intrigued that they brought up one of their top prospets from AA, Trevor Rosenthal. From what I've seen, he has nasty nasty stuff. Browning has stabalized the left handers in the bullpen. The Cards have had one of the top bullpens in July along with having the best starting rotation in the same time. I'm more confident every day that they can at least grab one of the WC spots.

As pointed out though, the Reds have a ridiculously easy schedule so I still give the Reds the division.

That said, I'm looking at the Reds schedule and it might not be as easy as the numbers would suggest. The Reds play the Mets 3 times, the Phillies 7 times, Cardinals 6 times, D-Backs 3 times, Pirates 6 more times. While some of those teams are technically under .500, I think they could give teams trouble. Do you really think the Phillies are going to be push overs? You also play the Doyers.

PuffyPig
07-26-2012, 01:40 PM
Ok... you can keep looking at the xFIP numbers all you want (which I think is a deceptive stat to begin with ) but Lohse still gives the Cardinals quality start after quality start and gives them a heck of a chance to win. You can keep believing he's been lucky for the past two years now if that makes you sleep better at night. I'll believe that he's actually a quality pitcher and gives the teams he plays for a chance to win.



I guess then that your position is that Lohse has finally become the pitcher who has learned to control BABIP?

Do you expect that he'll continue having a .260's BAPIP in the future like he's enjoyed over 2001 and 2012?

He might, but so might any other pitcher going forward. But that would be simply random.

MikeThierry
07-26-2012, 02:14 PM
I guess then that your position is that Lohse has finally become the pitcher who has learned to control BABIP?

Do you expect that he'll continue having a .260's BAPIP in the future like he's enjoyed over 2001 and 2012?

He might, but so might any other pitcher going forward. But that would be simply random.

The big thing I have noticed him watching most of his starts is he's had pin point accuracy with his pitches, even more so than when he first got here a couple of years ago. I think pitchers can control their BABIP to a certain extent if they pitch in locations where they get hitters to ground out in specific areas and where the defense is positioned. The random ball will go through the infield and that's to be expected. I feel though that you don't give enough credit to pitchers ability to control some ground balls.

The other thing is that you can "expect" him to regress because of some pie in the sky idea of "luck" but he hasn't. He is what he is this year. Until he proves that his "luck" has changed, I'm going to continue being on the Lohse bandwaggon. Again, you can believe all you want that he isn't worth a hill of beans because of some arbitrary stat that is flawed to begin with. He's still going to get a decent sized contract at the end of the year because GM's know what he has accomplished since coming back from injury and won't be afraid of signing him due to expectations that he's going to all of a sudden get "unlucky".

reds44
07-26-2012, 02:34 PM
No, but I feel he can average around a .875- .900 OPS for his career. That would still make him a top flight hitter that would be starting on pretty much all teams.

So if Allen Craig is currently OPSing .950 and you of all people don't even think he can OPS .950, then no he's not this good.