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New Fever
07-23-2012, 05:58 PM
The Reds Top 10 has undergone so much upheaval that I put four 2012 draftees on our updated version. Seven of the 10 players below are products of the last two drafts. Other players I considered included lefthanders Amir Garrett and Donnie Joseph, righthanders Pedro Diaz and J.C. Sulbaran and second baseman Ryan Wright.

1. Billy Hamilton, ss
May have to move off shortstop but his speed will wreak havoc anywhere.
2. Robert Stephenson, rhp
Has hit upper 90s en route to Pioneer League lead in strikeouts.
3. Tony Cingrani, lhp
Unhittable since moving from bullpen to rotation after signing as 2011 third-rounder.
4. Daniel Corcino, rhp
Continues to draw Johnny Cueto comparisons while having solid Double-A year at age 21.
5. Nick Travieso, rhp
The 14th overall pick in June has a power fastball/slider combination.
6. Didi Gregorius, ss
Overshadowed by Hamilton, he's athletic and has a better chance to stick at short.
7. Kyle Lotzkar, rhp
Finally healthy, he has reworked his delivery and regained his stuff.
8. Jesse Winker, of
Hit .337/.472/.429 in first 29 games after signing as 2012 sandwich pick.
9. Tanner Rahier, 3b
A second-rounder in June, he has a promising bat and plenty of intensity.
10. Jeff Gelalich, of
Broke out this spring at UCLA, went in sandwich round, has all-around tools.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2613765.html

dougdirt
07-23-2012, 06:03 PM
It is worth noting that the list above is from Jim Callis, while JJ Cooper does the actual Reds list. Of course Callis does kind of getting the say if he thinks JJ is off on someone with his list.

Kc61
07-23-2012, 06:04 PM
Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Great list.

Benihana
07-23-2012, 06:13 PM
Interesting observations ranked in terms of importance:

1. No Henry Rodriguez, even under those also considered
2. He ranks Stephenson, Cingrani, Corcino. I rank them the inverse. Either way is justifiable, but those three are clearly in a class of their own.
3. Lutz, Y-Rod, Barnhart and LaMarre rank behind others getting consideration including Diaz, Garrett, Sulbaran and Wright.

All things considered, it's hard to argue with his list, other than the curious omission of Henry Rodriguez. As always, BA puts a high premium on recent draftees and (like me) draft pedigree.

Kc61
07-23-2012, 06:19 PM
Maybe I'm just forgetful today, but who is Diaz?

dougdirt
07-23-2012, 06:22 PM
Maybe I'm just forgetful today, but who is Diaz?

Good armed 19 year old in Arizona right now.



ERA IP H HR BB IBB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
4.22 21.1 23 1 4 0 24 1.7 10.1 6.0

Kc61
07-23-2012, 06:26 PM
Good armed 19 year old in Arizona right now.



ERA IP H HR BB IBB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
4.22 21.1 23 1 4 0 24 1.7 10.1 6.0


Thank you. Nice K rate.

Benihana
07-23-2012, 06:27 PM
Funnily enough, not a C or CF in the bunch. Quite odd considering Buckley and the Reds system's history.

dougdirt
07-23-2012, 06:32 PM
Thank you. Nice K rate.

I am more impressed by the walk rate.... not often, even at the low levels, do you see that kind of walk rate from a young pitcher, much less one with real stuff.



Funnily enough, not a C or CF in the bunch. Quite odd considering Buckley and the Reds system's history.
I think Hamilton probably qualifies as a CF in most peoples eyes.

Benihana
07-23-2012, 06:45 PM
I think Hamilton probably qualifies as a CF in most peoples eyes.

Touche

Vottomatic
07-23-2012, 08:58 PM
It's a small sample, but it is for Winker and Gelalich too. So I'd consider the Brean kid.

mth123
07-23-2012, 09:04 PM
4 Guys from the most recent draft. I know it was a good draft, but IMO, that is an indication of a weak system.

jaydeebee21
07-23-2012, 09:11 PM
4 Guys from the most recent draft. I know it was a good draft, but IMO, that is an indication of a weak system.

Or a system that has had Mesoraco, Cozart, Frazier, Alonso, Grandal and Boxberger all graduate from the system this year

Vottomatic
07-24-2012, 12:32 AM
Or a system that has had Mesoraco, Cozart, Frazier, Alonso, Grandal and Boxberger all graduate from the system this year

A good argument. Look at all the players drafted/signed by the Reds either playing for the Reds or other teams. And it's not like we're talking 10 years ago.

Leake, Bailey, Cueto
Lecure, Ondrusek, Chapman
Votto, Cozart, Frazier, Stubbs, Heisey, Bruce, Hanigan, Mesoraco
Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger, T. Wood

This also accounts to why so many positions are blocked at the major league level too.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2012, 04:07 AM
4 Guys from the most recent draft. I know it was a good draft, but IMO, that is an indication of a weak system.

Agreed. I love this draft. Maybe my favorite one in several years. But it seems a bit premature to rate all of those rookies this high.

redsof72
07-24-2012, 09:10 PM
Pedro Diaz is a guy you will be hearing more and more about. 19 years old, throws in the mid-90s.

Henry Rodriguez...not the kind of player who is gonna be on the prospect lists. He is mostly a one-tool player. I am not selling him short as a hitter because he is one of the better pure hitters in the org but he has always been a below average defensive player with (despite good stolen base numbers some years) average major league speed. He might improve enough defensively to be ok at third base if he hits enough. When you hear Ortegon say he has really improved defensively, that's coach speak for "he's much better than he was." He does not have great instincts for the game, will make some mental mistakes.

Everyone has their own opinion and who knows how things will turn out, but I would put it this way with Henry...I am thinking back to the days when people told me I was crazy when I compared Dave Sappelt to the former International League batting champion, Norris Hopper.

Benihana
07-25-2012, 11:39 AM
Pedro Diaz is a guy you will be hearing more and more about. 19 years old, throws in the mid-90s.

Henry Rodriguez...not the kind of player who is gonna be on the prospect lists. He is mostly a one-tool player. I am not selling him short as a hitter because he is one of the better pure hitters in the org but he has always been a below average defensive player with (despite good stolen base numbers some years) average major league speed. He might improve enough defensively to be ok at third base if he hits enough. When you hear Ortegon say he has really improved defensively, that's coach speak for "he's much better than he was." He does not have great instincts for the game, will make some mental mistakes.

Everyone has their own opinion and who knows how things will turn out, but I would put it this way with Henry...I am thinking back to the days when people told me I was crazy when I compared Dave Sappelt to the former International League batting champion, Norris Hopper.

I would think he could at least be a utility guy/pinch-hitter at the major league level, no? Probably a more valuable bench player than someone like Soto who can only play 1B and is a worse hitter (but does have more power).

I think of H-Rod as a switch-hitting Edwin Encarnacion with maybe slightly less power: similar numbers, similar defensive questions, similar attitude issues. Is that wrong?

FWIW I always agreed on Sappelt and never thought of him as a starting caliber OF. I see LaMarre kind of the same way- maybe more similar to Chris Heisey. Good 4th OF, not a starter on a championship team.

dougdirt
07-25-2012, 12:27 PM
I think of H-Rod as a switch-hitting Edwin Encarnacion with maybe slightly less power: similar numbers, similar defensive questions, similar attitude issues. Is that wrong?


I think it is very wrong. Edwin had a lot more power than H-Rod will ever have. Not really the same kind of defensive questions. Edwin had strong defensive tools, but his arm slot was a problem that he struggled to correct. H-Rod doesn't really have good defensive tools, though they aren't bad. His problem has been a lack of effort in the past, or a lack of concentration.

Benihana
07-25-2012, 01:01 PM
I think it is very wrong. Edwin had a lot more power than H-Rod will ever have.

Encarnacion in his 20 year old season: 11 HR, .433 SLG
Rodriguez in his 20 year old season: 14 HR, .463 SLG

Encarnacion in his 21 year old season: 13 HR, .443 SLG
Rodriguez in his 21 year old season: 13 HR, .469 SLG

Encarnacion career minor league OPS (through age 24 season): .800 OPS
Rodriguez career minor league OPS (through age 22 season): .800 OPS

I acknowledged that EdE may have slightly more power, but the facts show it's pretty hard to say "he had a lot more power as a prospect than H-Rod will ever have."


His problem has been a lack of effort in the past, or a lack of concentration.

That sounds like EdE to me.

dougdirt
07-25-2012, 01:10 PM
Encarnacion HR his 20 year old season: 11
Rodriguez HR in his 20 year old season: 14

Encarnacion HR in his 21 year old season: 13
Rodriguez HR in his 21 year old season: 13

Encarnacion SLG in the minors: .455
Rodriguez SLG in the minors: .442

I acknowledged that EdE may have slightly more power, but the facts show it's hard to say "he had a lot more power as a prospect than H-Rod will ever have."



That sounds like EdE to me.

Power potential, it wasn't close. Edwin had legit home run power. Rodriguez has pull down the line home run power.

Edwin didn't have a lack of concentration problem. He had an execution problem. He was like Billy Hamilton, he threw sidearmed too often and it led to throws that sailed. Rodriguez has/had a concentration problem where he simply didn't seem to be trying, wouldn't get his glove down all the way. Big difference.

Benihana
07-25-2012, 01:18 PM
Power potential, it wasn't close. Edwin had legit home run power. Rodriguez has pull down the line home run power.

Edwin didn't have a lack of concentration problem. He had an execution problem. He was like Billy Hamilton, he threw sidearmed too often and it led to throws that sailed. Rodriguez has/had a concentration problem where he simply didn't seem to be trying, wouldn't get his glove down all the way. Big difference.

I don't think you have showed anything to say the comp was "very wrong."

Sure there are some differences in the players, but I still think that's the closest comp out of anyone who's come out of the Reds system in the last 10-15 years.

You're the one who loves to bring up numbers when defending your arguments, so please, defend them.

Remember your vehemently arguing that any idiot could see that there was no comparison between Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin when they were coming up as prospects just because you retroactively looked at the numbers (disregarding any scouting reports or people who actually saw them play)? How are you taking the exact opposite angle now (ie the numbers don't matter, I know what I see)?

dougdirt
07-25-2012, 01:25 PM
I don't think you have showed anything to say the comp was "very wrong."

Sure there are some differences in the players, but I still think that's the closest comp out of anyone who's come out of the Reds system in the last 10-15 years.

You're the one who loves to bring up numbers when defending your arguments, so please, defend them.

I did defend them. Edwin had 30 HR potential. Rodriguez doesn't. Edwin had execution problems with his strong defensive tools. Rodriguez doesn't have strong defensive tools.

They aren't really similar. Edwin was a Top 100 prospect for a reason. Rodriguez, even after hitting .317 in the US from rookie ball to AAA hasn't been able to sniff a Reds Top 10 placement.

dougdirt
07-25-2012, 01:27 PM
Remember your vehemently arguing that any idiot could see that there was no comparison between Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin when they were coming up as prospects just because you retroactively looked at the numbers (disregarding any scouting reports or people who actually saw them play)? How are you taking the exact opposite angle now?

Well, for starters because any scouting reports brought up said the two were similar. But when you looked at the production, it wasn't really close. Which meant Larkin was the easy choice between the two. One guy had the tools AND the skills. One guy had the tools. It isn't an exact opposite angle.

Benihana
07-25-2012, 01:33 PM
Well, for starters because any scouting reports brought up said the two were similar. But when you looked at the production, it wasn't really close. Which meant Larkin was the easy choice between the two. One guy had the tools AND the skills. One guy had the tools. It isn't an exact opposite angle.

When two guys profile pretty similarly, and their minor league numbers are pretty similar, they tend to perform pretty similarly at the major league level.

Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are a great example of this. Heisey had similar or better numbers as Stubbs at every step along the minor league ladder. Yet you praised Stubbs because of your own "scouting instincts", because he had the pedigree.

Well guess what? After three years in the majors, Heisey has similar or better numbers than Stubbs even still.

I would argue that up to this point, Henry Rodriguez has profiled pretty similarly to Edwin Encarnacion, and has put up very similar numbers:
They are both young 3B from the Dominican Republic who hit AA at 21 and AAA at 22. They both have good hit tools, moderate power, average speed, questionable defense and attitude. They've put up almost identical numbers leading up to their age 22 seasons.

Now I'm not guaranteeing Rodriguez will have the same career as Encarncion (especially with what EdE has done this season), but I don't think it is a ridiculous comp either- especially if Rodriguez is given a similar opportunity (which his attitude and Frazier's presence may prevent).

dougdirt
07-25-2012, 01:40 PM
When two guys profile pretty similarly, and their minor league numbers are pretty similar, they tend to perform pretty similarly at the major league level.

Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are a great example of this. Heisey had similar or better numbers as Stubbs at every step along the minor league ladder. Yet you praised Stubbs because of your own "scouting instincts", because he had the pedigree.

Well guess what? After three years in the majors, Heisey has similar or better numbers than Stubbs even still.

I would argue that up to this point, Henry Rodriguez has profiled pretty similarly to Edwin Encarnacion, and has put up very similar numbers. I'm not guaranteeing he'll have the same career as him (especially with what EdE has done this season), but I don't think it is a ridiculous comp either- especially if Rodriguez is given a similar opportunity (which his attitude and Frazier's presence may prevent).

Stubbs has started every day, Heisey has had most of his starts picked for him against pitchers he profiled well against. Stubbs has stronger defense. I didn't praise Stubbs, I simply thought he was going to be better than others did because I saw that he had power potential that others (on the board) didn't.

Numbers aren't profiles. They are production.

We are just going to disagree with it.

Benihana
07-25-2012, 01:40 PM
not sure why this double posted- I think Redszone has a fever

redsof72
07-25-2012, 03:51 PM
HRod and EE, really very different kind of players. First of all, Henry is listed at 5'10", 150 lbs. That is a badly outdated weight, but he is more of a Nick Punto type physical build where EE is listed at 6'2", 230 lbs. Edwin a more athletically gifted where Henry is just a hitting machine right now.

It will be interesting to see what role Henry evolves into. The main point I was making earlier that maybe I got away from a bit was then most of the guys who rank prospects like toolsy, athletic players and guys like Henry usually don't get a lot of attention because they would appear at face value to be somewhat limited (though again, players like this sometimes become better big leaguers than anyone expected). Henry is a short player with limited athleticsm, below average range, average speed, average arm at second base but will probably have to play third, below average instincts, WHO HAS KNOCKED THE COVER OFF THE BALL. Those kind don't get a lot of love from the prospect rankers.

Henry is an extremely confident player who believes he belongs in the big leagues and I would bet right now he is 100 percent sure that he could hit .300 in the big leagues today. Sappelt was the same way.

I have not been as big a fan of Henry as others but I am not blind to the fact that until he gets to a level where someone proves he can't keep hitting like he has, you give him the benefit of the doubt.

In terms of make-up, pretty much the polar opposite of a Frazier type. Frazier is a great "team first" guy who will find a way to beat you. Henry is going to have to let his bat carry him in terms of value. He will need a Latin mentor on the big league club when he gets there who will get on his case when he doesn't hustle or falls asleep on defense but he can be salvaged in those areas.

redsof72
07-25-2012, 03:51 PM
HRod and EE, really very different kind of players. First of all, Henry is listed at 5'10", 150 lbs. That is a badly outdated weight, but he is more of a Nick Punto type physical build where EE is listed at 6'2", 230 lbs. Edwin a more athletically gifted where Henry is just a hitting machine right now.

It will be interesting to see what role Henry evolves into. The main point I was making earlier that maybe I got away from a bit was then most of the guys who rank prospects like toolsy, athletic players and guys like Henry usually don't get a lot of attention because they would appear at face value to be somewhat limited (though again, players like this sometimes become better big leaguers than anyone expected). Henry is a short player with limited athleticsm, below average range, average speed, average arm at second base but will probably have to play third, below average instincts, WHO HAS KNOCKED THE COVER OFF THE BALL. Those kind don't get a lot of love from the prospect rankers.

Henry is an extremely confident player who believes he belongs in the big leagues and I would bet right now he is 100 percent sure that he could hit .300 in the big leagues today. Sappelt was the same way.

I have not been as big a fan of Henry as others but I am not blind to the fact that until he gets to a level where someone proves he can't keep hitting like he has, you give him the benefit of the doubt.

In terms of make-up, pretty much the polar opposite of a Frazier type. Frazier is a great "team first" guy who will find a way to beat you. Henry is going to have to let his bat carry him in terms of value. He will need a Latin mentor on the big league club when he gets there who will get on his case when he doesn't hustle or falls asleep on defense but he can be salvaged in those areas.

mace
07-25-2012, 05:16 PM
Henry is a short player with limited athleticsm, below average range, average speed, average arm at second base but will probably have to play third, below average instincts, WHO HAS KNOCKED THE COVER OFF THE BALL. Those kind don't get a lot of love from the prospect rankers.



The guy he somehow calls to mind--the high-end, most wildly optimistic model, admittedly--is Bill Madlock. They're similar in size, age placement in the minors, speed, hitting performance and position (both second and third base). Maybe even in disposition, although I'm not fully informed on Madlock in that regard.

RedlegJake
07-25-2012, 06:04 PM
The guy he somehow calls to mind--the high-end, most wildly optimistic model, admittedly--is Bill Madlock. They're similar in size, age placement in the minors, speed, hitting performance and position (both second and third base). Maybe even in disposition, although I'm not fully informed on Madlock in that regard.

Actually Mad Dog isn't a bad comp, imo. Madlock was a bit bigger if I remember correctly but not much and had 10-15 homer power, mostly line pull power, but he hit to all fields and was mostly a gap line drive hitter, rarely struck out, he could make contact no matter who pitched. Fastball, curve, knuckleball didn't matter Bill could make contact. Excellent bad ball hitter, too. He didn't like to walk and though he'd take a walk he didn't walk all that often because he'd hit a pitch outside but close - and get hits doing it. Fiery temper and competitor like Rose. If HRod became 1/2 the hitter Madlock was I'd be very, very happy.

HRod needs to strike out a bit less and walk a bit more but his power numbers and everything else are very close. Of course you're talking minor league numbers to major league numbers. The K and BB numbers are not that far off either. I'm not talking a huge improvement. But shifting production to the majors IS a huge thing. But yes, his minors numbers and Madlocks major league numbers are very similar...

Now I'm not saying HRod is going to become Madlock - I see it as a wildly optimistic ceiling while his floor is like a skyscraper below that

Kc61
07-25-2012, 06:39 PM
What makes Rodriguez interesting is that he sounds like a very good fit for the Reds bench. Switch hitter, superior hitting skills, even if he lacks power and is only a passable fielder.

I could easily see him in the Cairo spot, second and third base backup who pinch hits and plays occasionally. Then, depending on how he does, maybe he gets a larger role.

I expect Frazier at third full time next year, but HRod on the bench sounds good to me.

mace
07-25-2012, 07:14 PM
HRod needs to strike out a bit less and walk a bit more but his power numbers and everything else are very close. Of course you're talking minor league numbers to major league numbers. The K and BB numbers are not that far off either. I'm not talking a huge improvement. But shifting production to the majors IS a huge thing. But yes, his minors numbers and Madlocks major league numbers are very similar...


Actually, I was quoting minors to minors. I didn't take Madlock's major-league career into account--just comparing their ages and production at the minor-league level. It's very close. Rodriguez has actually hit for a higher average as a minor-leaguer, and of course Madlock ultimately made his reputation as a high-average guy--a four-time batting champion.

I suspect that their size was more comparable, as well, in their development years. Baseball Reference lists Madlock at 5-11, 180 as a major-leaguer. H-Rod is reported at 5-10, 150, but as 72 pointed out, he has gotten quite a bit stockier in the last couple years. Their body types seem very similar.

Good scouting report on Madlock.

RedlegJake
07-25-2012, 07:37 PM
Actually, I was quoting minors to minors. ...I suspect that their size was more comparable, as well, in their development years. Baseball Reference lists Madlock at 5-11, 180 as a major-leaguer. H-Rod is reported at 5-10, 150, but as 72 pointed out, he has gotten quite a bit stockier in the last couple years. Their body types seem very similar.

I was working from memory but I thought Bill was 6' even and about 190.
Funny how you remember guys bigger in your memory - I checked HRod's numbers in FanGraphs but used memory for Mad dog's. He was one of my favorite non-Reds as a Marine because of his attitude. The guy just never seemed to strike out - I remember specifically watching a game where a young
Rawly Eastwick tried to pitch him outside on a full count, a non-intentional intentional kind of walk and Bill just reached out - the ball was a fastball 5 or 6" outside and flicked it into right for a hit knocking in a run. He got traded a lot though because of that temper. Kind of a corrosive personality.

Vottomatic
07-25-2012, 09:49 PM
Bill Madlock was a very, very, very good hitter.