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Mario-Rijo
07-24-2012, 02:45 PM
Is Cueto gonna run out of steam or worse?

ESPN Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=60F6I120724)


Working Overtime

Conversely, if you're looking for reasons to worry, here are eight arms that Work Factor indicates have faced far too many deep counts and may well run out of gas sooner rather than later. Additionally, all of them have an overall P/IP well over 15.5, many dramatically so, which typically signals a pitcher who may tend to work harder than his peers to get through the same number of opposing hitters.


Johnny Cueto has been phenomenal and is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA since June 6. However, he also has thrown over 110 pitches in five of his past nine starts with his low total being 106 in that stretch. Take a look at his career ERA splits by month and you'll notice a disturbing trend:

April: 3.63; May: 2.98; June: 2.96; July: 3.82; August: 4.20; September: 4.61.

By working way too hard consistently throughout the season, there typically ends up being little left in Cueto's tank as the schedule runs out of dates.

dougdirt
07-24-2012, 02:49 PM
I am not saying skip him, but it would be nice to see him limited to 100 pitches per start for the next month or so.

RedsManRick
07-24-2012, 02:55 PM
I agree with Doug. We should be taking advantage of opportunities to keep him fresh, especially in situations where the team has a large lead in the middle innings.

I'd also be keeping an eye on his velocity/control. If either seems to dip for consecutive starts, I'd look at giving him an extra day of rest or even consider skipping a start.

Obviously we have to get to the playoffs first, but I don't want to go in with a burned out Game 1 starter.

redsfan30
07-24-2012, 02:56 PM
Was this the first offseason Johnny has skipped winter ball or the second?

Degenerate39
07-24-2012, 02:56 PM
Was this the first offseason Johnny has skipped winter ball or the second?

I think 2nd

RedlegJake
07-24-2012, 02:57 PM
I've been advocating getting starts for Todd Redmond for just this reason. Keeping the record going for the 5 man staff is silly if it means wearing them out buy October - not just Cueto but all the starters. Adding an extra day of rest and lowering their end innings pitched is a good goal. Maybe skipping each one turn on a rotating basis or something to that effect pr just guys that have a large innings load to date.

PuffyPig
07-24-2012, 02:59 PM
I've been advocating getting starts for Todd Redmond for just this reason. Keeping the record going for the 5 man staff is silly if it means wearing them out buy October - not just Cueto but all the starters. Adding an extra day of rest and lowering their end innings pitched is a good goal. Maybe skipping each one turn on a rotating basis or something to that effect pr just guys that have a large innings load to date.


We have an off day Thursday, so everyone will get an extra day of rest.

RedlegJake
07-24-2012, 03:15 PM
We have an off day Thursday, so everyone will get an extra day of rest.

Yeah Puffy - 1 day. I think they need more than that. Nothing wrong with planning in extra days and seeing hat Redmond's got. Of course you plan a game where he has the best chance to succeed. And maybe wait til Joey's back

Kc61
07-24-2012, 03:22 PM
Yeah Puffy - 1 day. I think they need more than that. Nothing wrong with planning in extra days and seeing hat Redmond's got. Of course you plan a game where he has the best chance to succeed. And maybe wait til Joey's back

Hopefully Latos' ankle is ok. If he gets pushed back, some guys may not get the extra day.

WildcatFan
07-24-2012, 03:24 PM
It will be crucial to monitor all five starters over this next stretch of 17 straight gamedays. Johnny will be at approximately 153 innings after 115 games (career high 185), Bailey will be around 132 (career high 162), and Leake will be at around 122 (career high 175). Figure each of those guys gets about 10 more starts each in the regular season, and I am a little worried about the playoffs from there (don't worry, I knocked on wood).

I'm OK with letting Arroyo, Latos, and even Leake run their course, but with the arm histories of both Cueto and Bailey, I think you have to skip at least two starts the rest of the way. In a perfect world, that will be after the Central crown is off and clinched, but there's a very good chance we'll have a race on our hands. I don't envy Dusty and Walt.

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2012, 03:26 PM
Hey, guys, why are you worried? If any manager knows how to take care of pitchers, it's Dusty.

RedlegJake
07-24-2012, 03:27 PM
I still think Redmond is going to starting a few games before long. Of course, if Latos ankle is sore and he has to miss a start that's foregone, but too many guys are going to log a lot of innings unless they insert an extra starter in spots.

dougdirt
07-24-2012, 03:27 PM
It will be crucial to monitor all five starters over this next stretch of 17 straight gamedays. Johnny will be at approximately 153 innings after 115 games (career high 185), Bailey will be around 132 (career high 162), and Leake will be at around 122 (career high 175). Figure each of those guys gets about 10 more starts each in the regular season, and I am a little worried about the playoffs from there (don't worry, I knocked on wood).

I'm OK with letting Arroyo, Latos, and even Leake run their course, but with the arm histories of both Cueto and Bailey, I think you have to skip at least two starts the rest of the way. In a perfect world, that will be after the Central crown is off and clinched, but there's a very good chance we'll have a race on our hands. I don't envy Dusty and Walt.

Homer Bailey has a high of 203 in 2009.

WildcatFan
07-24-2012, 03:29 PM
Homer Bailey has a high of 203 in 2009.

You're right; I missed 2009 (203).

WildcatFan
07-24-2012, 03:33 PM
Homer Bailey has a high of 203 in 2009.

He did have those shoulder issues last season, though, which may not create problems, but I wanted to point it out anyway.