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View Full Version : Great thread in the sun deck about innings limit



lidspinner
07-26-2012, 10:41 PM
Hats off to ironman from the SD.....I will copy his post here and let you all take a look and give some opinions......it's a good problem to have.....but it's still a problem IMO. What say you all? the below is all copy and pasted from SD....poster is ironman92


Ok folks....off day but I've been hard at it.

Our starting pitchers have been amazing. The Reds have not had 3 starters over 185 inn since 1992. This year all 5 are on pace for 197+

Ok...here's where I'm going. We win the central and are in the playoffs!

Let's set our rotation with 1. Cueto, 2. Arroyo, 3. Homer, 4. Latos

Divisional series.....we win in 4 games (Cueto, Arroyo, Homer, Latos)....yippee

NLCS....we win a tough series in 6! Dusty Baker...shut me up! Lol (Cueto, Arroyo, Homer, Latos, Cueto, Arroyo)

World Series....we win in 6 or 7 games (Homer, Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Homer, Cueto)

Everything is reasonable and an average prediction providing we continue this play.

Still with me? Here we go.

Johnny Cueto is our 26 year old ace and we all assume and want him to be for several more years...but he has never pitched over 185 innings....he only threw 156 last year.....he has 13 regular season starts left and 6 in the playoffs...using his average in those starts he would lead us to a title and throw 254 innings.

Homer Bailey....looking great and only 26 years old....including rehabs and season Homer has never pitched nearly this much due to injuries and last year was his high with around 170...but he is on pace for 205 inn at end of regular season.....including our postseason heroics he ends the year at 231 inn.

Mat Latos...only 24! Mat did throw 184 at age 22, and threw 194 at age 23...he's on pace for 197 and with the World Series participation he'd end at 217.

Mike Leake you ask? We'd rather him over Bronson or Latos....ok He's been on an innings limit and last year was shut down at 167.....so his pace this year of 198 fits perfectly for the 24 year old. Put him in the mix and he's looking at 225.

Bronson....old man crafty is on pace for 198 and the Series would end him around 230.

So....

Recommended Inn/projected

Cueto 215-220/254
Homer 205/231
Latos 215/197 or 217
Leake 200/200 or 225
Arroyo Doesn't matter/Doesn't matter

So for a complete postseason run are clear ace and right now our #2 will exceed a sensible innings limit by 35 and 25 inn and if Leake is mixed in he will go about 25 over.

Latos and Arroyo have no innings issues....but arguably our top 3 do and Leake was shut down on the spot last year and Cueto is irreplaceable. Homer has came so far but never going over 170 and needing 231 for a championship?

What's everyone think?

I AM COMPLETELY FOR ALL OF THOSE GUYS GREATLY EXCEEDING AS I HAVE PROJECTED...WITH NO EXCEPTIONS.

1990 didn't happen again real soon did it?

camisadelgolf
07-26-2012, 11:26 PM
It's a great point though. Could you imagine Sam LeCure getting a game 7 start? No offense to LeCure--I really like him in his current role--but that'd be quite a decline in expected production from the 5 starters.

gilpdawg
07-27-2012, 12:05 AM
Flags fly forever.

OesterPoster
07-27-2012, 08:05 AM
Flags fly forever.

Yep. Would Cubs fans care that Dusty supposedly ruined Prior and Wood had they won that Series? Heck no.

Also, I think the stress on arms during the postseason is overstated. Starters tend to get an extra few days between starts, depending on the schedule. And I think we're crazy if we think someone doesn't miss some starts with dead arm in August or September. Hopefully Redmond or Corcino or Villareal can fill in for a few starts.

PuffyPig
07-27-2012, 09:17 AM
I think that adding an extra 30 innings on to a pitchers total after the season is a world of difference to adding an extra 30 innings on to a pitchers total during the season.

HotCorner
07-27-2012, 09:41 AM
Homer threw 202 IP in 2009 (113 CIN | 89 LOU) so he has broken the 200 IP barrier.

RedsMan3203
07-27-2012, 09:56 AM
Hopefully they'll be able to put the foot on the throat come late Aug and early Sept.... Give the work horses some extra rest at the end of the season and still keep them sharp....

We are all in for the long haul and as long as there are games to be won.... They'll be pitching.....

lidspinner
07-27-2012, 12:07 PM
I would love to see some stats from other teams that have been in this same boat....I get the point that flags fly forever, but I am not so much worried about that as much as I am worried that the dead arm will come into play right as we are getting to the playoffs....that is the case scenario that I am worried about.....I would tend to think that adrenaline and just the fact that these guys are professionals would take over in the playoffs but lets hope dead arms are not an issue with at least 3 guys....thats really all we need. we need 3 strong pitchers going strong come playoff time....

Big Klu
07-27-2012, 12:16 PM
Tom Glavine once said that any pitcher in the postseason who tells you that his arm doesn't hurt is lying to you.

Degenerate39
07-27-2012, 12:46 PM
When September comes around could they go with a six man rotation?

savafan
07-27-2012, 01:41 PM
I think it's interesting that John Fay wrote on this very topic in today's paper

OesterPoster
07-27-2012, 02:28 PM
I think it's interesting that John Fay wrote on this very topic in today's paper

So you think John Fay has a mole in the Sun Deck? :D

savafan
07-27-2012, 02:33 PM
So you think John Fay has a mole in the Sun Deck? :D

Maybe he reads Redszone? Maybe he's a poster on the Sun Deck, LOL :lol:

lidspinner
07-27-2012, 02:40 PM
Maybe Fay is Ironman92????

kaldaniels
07-27-2012, 02:43 PM
I can't see Arroyo being the #2 starter in the playoffs.

Scrap Irony
07-27-2012, 02:50 PM
You have to pitch them. There's not another alternative at this point.

If Cincinnati opens up a 10-game lead, I'd guess a couple AAA guys (Redmond, maybe Villareal) would come up and take a couple starts from Cueto, Leake, maybe Bailey or Latos. (Not Arroyo.)

But they need to open up that lead first.

dougdirt
07-27-2012, 02:51 PM
I can't see Arroyo being the #2 starter in the playoffs.

Nor would the Reds unless he just goes on some sort of terrific run.