View Full Version : If nothing done at deadline, these moves can be made.

07-27-2012, 11:21 AM
-Ondrusek to AAA (off 25)……..Hoover to Reds (on 25)
This makes too much sense as Hoover and Ondrusek are both RHP’s and Hoover is simply a better pitcher. Ondrusek stays on 40 and can be kept there, but there’s no point in keeping he and Jordan Smith both on the 40. I’ll get to that later.

-Bray DFA’d (off 25 & 40)……..Joseph to Reds (added to 25 & 40). Sidenote: Joseph will need to be added to 40 by next Rule V.
Bray was solid in ’10 and ’11, so this one is up to the Reds to decide if it is time to part ways. I just have a feeling the time is near.

-When Votto is off DL (back on 25)…………….Cairo DFA’d (off 25 & 40)………(Navarro added to 40 for Sept. call-up/possible playoff roster).

This one is a tough one for me. I’m not sure it happens. Cairo is a strong clubhouse presence and this might mess with team chemistry, which is fine right now (team winning). The practical move would be to release Cairo, but these ARE human beings so I’m not sure it will happen. If not, Xavier Paul can simply be sent back down to AAA-LOU when Votto comes off the DL. Does Paul have options? If not, it might make the decision to let Cairo go a little easier.

Expendables from the 40 (between now and the next Rule V):

-As mentioned above, Bray and Cairo (for Joseph and Navarro).

-Mike Costanzo – with Xavier Paul’s LH bat and HRod now healthy and close, no need for Costanzo.
-Jordan Smith – poor man’s Ondrusek is redundant and not even getting it done in AAA.
-Andrew Brackman – Reclamation project should be over soon.
-Chris Valaika – HRod also makes him expendable.
-Kris Negron – Janish gone, but Gregorius makes him expendable.
-Denis Phipps – been in the system a long, long time (’04 signing) and OPS’ing .609 in AAA. Was his 2011 just an aberration????

Possibly removed from the 40 (between end of season and the next Rule V):

-Scott Rolen – will play out the season, but will not be with the Reds in 2013.
-Miguel Cairo – even if kept down the stretch, will be gone by the offseason, opening up another spot on 40.
-Ryan Ludwick – will he be brought back? Based on the Reds history with these types of decisions (Gomes, Cairo, etc., etc.), I bet so.
-Ryan Madson – currently not on the 40 (60-DL). Will he be re-signed? Hopefully so.
-Nick Massett – like Madson, not currently on 40 (60-day DL), but unlike Madson is signed for next year. Unless his injury is career-threatening, he’ll be back.
-Wilson Valdez – mini-Cairo is arb eligible with 4.096 yrs service time heading into 2013. Does Gregorius take his spot or will Didi need regular AB’s in AAA?
-Xavier Paul – low risk, potential high reward scrap heap pick-up. So far I think he deserves a chance. His AAA numbers are nice (of course, so were Larson’s).
-Todd Redmond – insurance in case a starter goes down. Not sure how many options he has remaining. That would be a factor.

Players added to 40 (between now and Rule V):

-As mentioned above, Joseph and Navarro (for Bray and Cairo).

-Billy Hamilton – doesn’t have to be added even this offseason, but if the Reds want to see him for a Sept call-up, will need to be added sooner.
-Tony Cingrani – same as Hamilton, but less likely to see Sept call-up.
-Daniel Corcino - will need to be added to 40 in offseason at the latest (Rule V).
-Juan Carlos Sulbaran – Signed in ’08, but is only in his 4th year playing. I think (not sure) he’ll need added this offseason (Rule V).

Others I think are eligible for the next Rule V:

-Brian Pearl – was having solid year in high-A Bakersfield, but is struggling in Pensacola (AA). 10.4 career K/9, 2.8 career BB/9.
-Curtis Partch – reports are that he’s cranking up the FB into the mid 90’s. Pitching well in Pensacola (AA). 6.8 career K/9, 3.3 career BB/9.
-Mark Serrano – old-timer (will be 27 in Sept.) pitching very well in Pensacola (AA). 8.8 career K/9, 2.8 career BB/9
-Travis Mattair – Great glove 3rd base prospect and former 2nd round pick by PHI (’07) who took a year off to play hoops for Boise St. in 2010. Still only 23, having career year in high A. Always had glove, need to develop bat. Is he product of PCL?
-Juan Duran - ranked #12 in pre-season by RedsZone (#16 BP, #19 Sickels)
-Theo Bowe – having career year in high-A Bakersfield. 50 SB’s between Dayton and Bakersfield and 2nd fastest guy in the system behind you-know-who.
-Yorman Rodriguez – ranked #7 in pre-season by RedsZone (#11 BP, #9 Sickels), Rebounding in low A Dayton after horrendous start in Bakerfield.
-Tim Crabbe - ranked #21 in pre-season by RedsZone (#14 Sickels).
-Drew Hayes - ranked #35 in pre-season by RedsZone.
-Chris Manno - ranked #37 in pre-season by RedsZone.
-Josh Ravin – 7th year in the Reds system.

07-27-2012, 12:02 PM
i don't think the reds will make any moves trade wise. i hope i'm wrong, but have no faith they will. as for cairo or valdez, thats a tough choice. neither offer alot to the team but dusty likes his vets. it xavier paul is hitting there is no way he should be sent down once votto gets back. if the team makes a move for a lead off hitter i'm fine with any of the above 3 being let go. with paul being a lefty i would be more willing to keep him around.

07-27-2012, 12:13 PM
I think this was a great post. I have trouble finding anything that doesn't make sense.

07-27-2012, 12:32 PM
Those that you suggest be added to the 40 man roster early shouldn't be added until it's necessary. If they're making the club out of spring training or are going to be added later in the 2013 season, then you worry about where to make the space. Plus, why start their clocks prematurely? That would be poor roster management, IMO. Just no need to do that early.

You may see some of these guys moved by trade at some point to garner something for the work we've put in (Bray, as one example). That seems logical to me, although
that doesn't seem to happen often in Jockety's playbook very often.

Certainly a number of these players will be off the team when the season concludes, even if they're brought back. I'm guessing we'll have amble 40 man roster room as we approach the Rule 5 draft.

07-27-2012, 12:37 PM
Unless Ondrusek or Bray are traded, I think they will stay with the big club this year because of their experience. Hoover and Joseph September call ups.

I can live with that so long as Logan and Bray are used as pure middle relievers or Bray as a LOOGY. Ondrusek at this point shouldn't be pitching late in games. And I doubt they are here in 2013.

Cairo has no real role on this team. With Frazier, first and third are adequately protected. Valdez handles second and short. Cairo is simply a righty pinch hitter, which is not needed. He's had a good career, maybe he stays, but there's no real role there.

Have to also wonder about Heisey. A left handed hitter or switcher would make a lot more sense in his role. If Ludwick and Stubbs stay, Chris doesn't really compliment them very well IMO.

07-27-2012, 12:42 PM
I would love to just see Dusty stop using Ondrusek as his primary RH setup guy... Excluding Bray, he's been the least effective pitcher on the staff.

But yeah, all that makes sense, save perhaps for the DFA Bray idea. He's been very effective when healthy. He's thrown 7 innings this year and won't be up for much of a raise in his final arb year. It would be a waste of an asset to just give him his walking papers. If the club wants to clear a spot for Joseph, they could probably get something for him a trade -- if just a C prospect.

Scrap Irony
07-27-2012, 12:55 PM
Because relief arms seem to be so in-demand, I'd dangle Ondrusek, Bray, Massett (if/ when healthy), Joseph, Hoover, LeCure, and Arredondo to see what I could get. Once two are dealt away, close up shop. I'm guessing the Reds could get quite a decent haul for at least two of those guys.

They could at least make an interesting three-way deal.

07-27-2012, 01:02 PM
I don't DFA Bray or Cairo they both have value in this league at this juncture. I think Bray should go down to AAA to get some innings under his belt. Cairo could be dealt for a player of his ilk from the left side like Dobbs of Miami, maybe send them Jordan Smith as sweetener.

Mike Costanzo should have been off that 40 along time ago, he is one of the worst hitters I've ever seen. Add Navarro right away there.

As for the offseason stuff, I'm just not looking that far ahead yet but I appreciate the effort on your part.

07-27-2012, 01:07 PM
Have to also wonder about Heisey. A left handed hitter or switcher would make a lot more sense in his role.

I wonder if Xavier Paul does well from here on out if that will force their hand with Heisey, especially if, as you said, Ludwick is re-signed. Of course, if he continues to struggle, Stubbs may be the out man out.

I have a good feeling Paul will OPS higher than Heisey and put up solid D in the OF. I think it will end up being a really good pick-up.

07-27-2012, 01:09 PM
Nice job on that post BuckeyeRedleg.

07-27-2012, 06:03 PM
If some of those young guys don't have to go on the 40-man, then don't do it.

07-27-2012, 06:27 PM
Corcino, Sulbaran, Joseph, Christiani and Yorman will have to be added. Manno isn't eligible yet.