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View Full Version : Who legitimately scares you in the NL?



edabbs44
07-27-2012, 11:13 PM
A pet peeve of mine is that I continue to see the same complaints. Dusty's lineups. Dusty's bullpen choices. Cozart. Stubbs. Leadoff and cleanup hitters. Lack of lefty hitters, especially on the bench. And that these are all critical type deficiencies, the kinds that will absolutely sink this team in October.

Let's take a look at the NL contenders and some of their soft spots.

Washington: Team OBP is .001 better than Cincy's. Leadoff OBP is sub .300. OPS vs RHP is .014 better than Cincy. ERA is best in NL, slightly better than Cincy. They may lose Strasburg

Atlanta: ERA is 3.98, way off the pace. Scoring runs but OPS is slightly worse than Cincy's.

Pitt: Team OPS is .030 less than Cincy, same vs RHP. They are one spot better than Cincy in leadoff OBP, which is nothing to brag about and now have a rookie hitting there, fresh out of the minors. Pitching has been good, but still behind the Reds.

St. Louis: Biggest difference in Cincy's favor is the bullpen is about 1.60 runs behind in ERA. They do give me reason to pause as they have talent, especially at the dish.

SF: Strong pitching. Cincy has .030 edge in OPS, both overall and vs RHP. 11th in leadoff OBP. #5 hitter has a .701 OPS.

LA: Fading. 15th in the NL in OPS, .055 off Cincy's number. .688 OPS vs RHP. Right behind Cincy in ERA. We will see if Hanley makes a difference.

Now things can obviously change and I would love to see Cincy add some talent to the roster. Would be a solid boost. But even if things stayed as is, do we think that they wouldn't be one of the top choices to go to the WS, if not the top choice? Who is materially stronger than them top to bottom?

Looking around I see a lot of the same warts across the league. If Cincy ends up getting taken out by Washington, for example, are we going to blame it on Cozart/Stubbs even though the Nats have Steve Lombardozzi leading off for them?

Cozart, Stubbs, Dusty's lineups, etc. don't seem to be having the detrimental effect that many act like they are having. The team, overall, is quality and is playing great right now. That's what counts.

So the question is...who do you think the Reds are chasing? Who is the team that they have to better themselves to get in front of?

savafan
07-27-2012, 11:19 PM
I feel you can never count out St. Louis. They somehow always seem to find a way to make a strong late season push.

edabbs44
07-27-2012, 11:20 PM
I feel you can never count out St. Louis. They somehow always seem to find a way to make a strong late season push.

Agreed, their bullpen has been leaky but the other pieces are there. Especially with the lineup. The 5 game cushion is definitely nice.

fearofpopvol1
07-27-2012, 11:20 PM
If the Nats keep Strasburg around, I'd be scared of them in a short series. San Francisco, because of their pitching, could be scary, especially at home. Pirates still remain a threat because of their ability to come back in games. And St. Louis has some big bats, but their August will make or break them I believe.

Tom Servo
07-27-2012, 11:21 PM
The Cardinals offense. And the Nationals because they steamrolled over us earlier in the year. I still don't think they're amazing or anything though. They are very good though.

That's it, really. I think we match up well with any NL teams.

edabbs44
07-27-2012, 11:24 PM
If the Nats keep Strasburg around, I'd be scared of them in a short series. San Francisco, because of their pitching, could be scary, especially at home. Pirates still remain a threat because of their ability to come back in games. And St. Louis has some big bats, but their August will make or break them I believe.

That's kind of my point. The Nats and SF are likely saying the same thing about us. Base upon the first hundredish games, Reds pitching is right at the top of the league.

And no one has Aroldis.

Kc61
07-27-2012, 11:31 PM
The new wild card system makes it imperative to win the division. Otherwise, one game playoff.

So the only teams the Reds need to think about are the Pirates and the Cards. They both are serious competition and either one could edge the Reds out.

So I am concerned only about them.

CySeymour
07-27-2012, 11:31 PM
I still feel the Cards have a huge win streak in them and will make a push for the playoffs.

RedlegJake
07-27-2012, 11:41 PM
I kinda feel like the Cards and Pirates may be making their big push right now - with Votto out and all - yet the Reds are out playing them. Both Cards and Pirates are winning at an almost unsustainable rate yet the Reds are keeping pace or gaining ground. It's almost who gives first situation.

dougdirt
07-27-2012, 11:42 PM
Injuries scare me. Otherwise, I feel confident we can hang with any team in the NL.

_Sir_Charles_
07-27-2012, 11:42 PM
Who legitimately scares you in the NL?

This guy.

http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sp/v/mlb/players_l/20090404/8369.jpg

He's just so freaky looking. Scares the crap out of me. Right up there with Willie McGee. His mug could give you nightmares.

11larkin11
07-27-2012, 11:43 PM
The new wild card system makes it imperative to win the division. Otherwise, one game playoff.

So the only teams the Reds need to think about are the Pirates and the Cards. They both are serious competition and either one could edge the Reds out.

So I am concerned only about them.

I agree, but I wouldn't say that't the only teams to worry about. The difference between the 1 and 2 seed is HUGE now. Not only do you get homefield advantage, but you get to face a WC team who just used their ace.

dougdirt
07-27-2012, 11:46 PM
I agree, but I wouldn't say that't the only teams to worry about. The difference between the 1 and 2 seed is HUGE now. Not only do you get homefield advantage, but you get to face a WC team who just used their ace.

They might not have used their ace.

George Foster
07-27-2012, 11:47 PM
I don't want to play the Dodgers or Pirates (wildcard winner) in the 1st round. Time zone thing with the Dodgers and the Pirates will have that mojo thing going...20 years since the playoffs. Most casual fans will be pulling for them and the media as well.

When we make the playoffs...notice I said when, I want to play the Nats in the First round. Why? 1) same time zone, easy travel. 2) I think we would have the advantage with our 2010 experience...the Nats will have the "deer in the headlights look." Like we did in 2010.

RedsManRick
07-27-2012, 11:49 PM
SF and Washington both have rotations that scare me. The Cardinals offense, if healthy, scares me. The Dodgers, if Hanley starts hitting, scare me. But year, point taken.

nate
07-27-2012, 11:51 PM
I think the Nationals are very close to the Reds in terms of run scoring and run prevention.

fearofpopvol1
07-27-2012, 11:52 PM
That's kind of my point. The Nats and SF are likely saying the same thing about us. Base upon the first hundredish games, Reds pitching is right at the top of the league.

And no one has Aroldis.

If the Reds had home field advantage against the Giants, I'd like the Reds. If the Giants have it, I like the Giants. I think the Reds would struggle against the Nationals, but could beat them without Strasburg. Maybe.

WVRedsFan
07-27-2012, 11:53 PM
Obviously Pittsburgh and St Louis because the Bucs are charmed and the Cards are the Cards.

WVRedsFan
07-27-2012, 11:56 PM
SF and Washington both have rotations that scare me. The Cardinals offense, if healthy, scares me. The Dodgers, if Hanley starts hitting, scare me. But year, point taken.With a team that depends on pitching an one who has trouble scoring runs (if not by the HR), I want nothing to do with a team with a good staff and TNT would be the Giants and Nats.

But it's is a litte premature. We're on a roll, but there's a lot of season left.

DGullett35
07-28-2012, 12:03 AM
Honestly I could care less about Washington, Atlanta, LA, SF, or the other teams that have a chance outside the Central Division. The Pirates and Cards scare me and its because we still have a few games left vs. each. The last week of the season may be huge and us being on the road for those 6 games scares me. The way things are going it will be hard to have even a 6 game lead. Im with some others on this board and that 1999 still haunts me losing 2 of 3 to the Brew Crew.

MikeS21
07-28-2012, 12:08 AM
I kinda feel like the Cards and Pirates may be making their big push right now - with Votto out and all - yet the Reds are out playing them. Both Cards and Pirates are winning at an almost unsustainable rate yet the Reds are keeping pace or gaining ground. It's almost who gives first situation.
Yes, I agree that the Cards and Pirates are winning at an almost unsustainable rate. But they probably are saying the same about the Reds right now.

Right now, if you take the three top teams in each division, over the last ten games, the NL Central's three top teams are a combined 24-6. That's unreal and no other division comes close.

At some point the Reds are going to need some help from other teams in beating back those two clubs.

DGullett35
07-28-2012, 12:10 AM
The Reds are going to need some help but the Pirates are playing just as an easy of schedule as us right now. When they opened the second half losing 2 of 3 to the Brewers I thought they were starting to fall off. Man have they proved me wrong.

PuffyPig
07-28-2012, 01:02 AM
The Reds are tied with the second best record in the majors, 1 game behind the Yankees......

corkedbat
07-28-2012, 01:12 AM
Dusty

DGullett35
07-28-2012, 01:15 AM
An injury to anyone in the starting rotation and Chappy in addition to the Cards and Buccos.

DGullett35
07-28-2012, 01:24 AM
Dusty

Makes me laugh that Dusty still gets the hate despite his team being the hottest in baseball right now. He deserves alot of credit esp. with Votto being out. He keeps these guys on their toes and prepared for every game. I wish he wasnt so quiet about strategy and things he does during games. If he wasn't maybe some people wouldnt question him as much as they do. Look at tonights game. In the 5th or 6th inning Pomeranz was up with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He was only going to pitch one more inning and the Rox had not had one rally to speak of till then. What does Tracy do? He lets Pomeranz hit. I just thought man better them than us. Dusty would have been criticized for the rest of the season for that. I dont even think Pomeranz made it through the next inning. Even Welsh had something to say about it. Sorry for the rant and I wasn't calling you out corkedbat. It just amazes me that Dusty hardly gets any credit even when this team is playing out there shoes with the best player in the NL on the DL. So I guess my point is that Dusty does not legitimately scare me:)

corkedbat
07-28-2012, 02:06 AM
Makes me laugh that Dusty still gets the hate despite his team being the hottest in baseball right now. He deserves alot of credit esp. with Votto being out. He keeps these guys on their toes and prepared for every game. I wish he wasnt so quiet about strategy and things he does during games. If he wasn't maybe some people wouldnt question him as much as they do. Look at tonights game. In the 5th or 6th inning Pomeranz was up with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He was only going to pitch one more inning and the Rox had not had one rally to speak of till then. What does Tracy do? He lets Pomeranz hit. I just thought man better them than us. Dusty would have been criticized for the rest of the season for that. I dont even think Pomeranz made it through the next inning. Even Welsh had something to say about it. Sorry for the rant and I wasn't calling you out corkedbat. It just amazes me that Dusty hardly gets any credit even when this team is playing out there shoes with the best player in the NL on the DL. So I guess my point is that Dusty does not legitimately scare me:)

I'm consistent. :)

reds44
07-28-2012, 02:54 AM
The offense going into a gigantic funk.

vic715
07-28-2012, 03:31 AM
St Louis is still the threat especially if Berkman can stay in the lineup.I still think the Pirates will fade.Walt not finding a leadoff bat before Tuesday scares me more than anything though.

mth123
07-28-2012, 03:37 AM
I think the Nationals are very close to the Reds in terms of run scoring and run prevention.

Agreed up to this point. Something to consider in Wash. So far the Nationals haven't really had their best team on the field. They started the year with Harper in the minors and Morse on the DL. They lost Zimmerman shortly after the season started. By the time those guys were back, Werth was out and has been. Come August, they'll have all those guys out there playing together. I'd suspect we'll see a better offense than what their stats show to date. Drew Storen has returned recently and provided a significant upgrade to the pen. The Strasburg factor is pretty huge, but Gio, Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson is pretty formidable in a short series. The Reds pitchers match-up pretty well, but I think the Nats have a better team of position players and I'd guess they'll make an acquisition or two.

The Cardinals concern me as well. It looks like they are about to get their position players back and all on the field at once. If so, I'd think they could package an Alan Craig and Shelby Miller and get just about anyone they want to fix their pitching without creating a huge hole on the major league roster.

That is what concerns me the most about the Reds. Yes they've been without Votto for a couple weeks and played well, but when comparing them statistically to the opposition, I think it may be a false sense of security. Those opposing teams accumulated those stats with lesser groups than what they'll be throwing out there down the stretch. The Pirates added an impact Rookie with Marte and added Wandy. The Cards are getting the position players back. The Nats as well. The Giants just filled their hole at 2B. The Dodgers just added Han-Ram and now have Kemp and Ethier healthy and producing (which is something they didn't have for a huge part of the season) and will have Ted Lilly back in mid-August. Without a deal, the Reds don't have any help coming as compared with what they've had all year. There isn't a Werth or Berkman coming off a long DL stretch. There isn't a Marte or Harper coming from AAA. The opponents have upraded in comparison to what they've used all season to accumulate the stats they have. The Reds need to upgrade a weak area or two as well. CF and the top of the order is really where it needs to be. Acquire a CF who can get on base, move Phillips to the two hole with Ludwick 4th and Cozart down to 7th or 8th and the team will be much improved IMO since it should make their bread and butter player that much more of an impact guy. If so, I think they can go deep in the post season. Maybe they can anyway. I predicted 92 wins from this team as is before the season started. Its the reason I want an upgrade. They have a real chance. I want them to maximze those chances.

lidspinner
07-28-2012, 04:18 AM
Pirates....simple and easy...they have pitching and offense and a MVP type player who can take over a game in Andrew M. We have the exact same thing so since they march up so well with us I see them as a team I fear.

CrackerJack
07-28-2012, 04:19 AM
As for winning the division, the Card have the offense, Reds have the pitching, Pitt has both, but they don't have a Votto or Chapman or Cueto.

Degenerate39
07-28-2012, 08:38 AM
As for winning the division, the Card have the offense, Reds have the pitching, Pitt has both, but they don't have a Votto or Chapman or Cueto.

"We have a McCutchen"- Pirates

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2012, 08:46 AM
The Reds do. As I said yesterday and will reiterate it today the Reds are now 19 games over .500 and also 19 games over vs. sub .500 teams. Which means they are merely .500 themselves against teams over .500.

berryluther
07-28-2012, 08:55 AM
Once October rolls around I feel we are the team to beat in the NL. The Nats will be loosing Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman due to inning limits. That is their number 1 and number 3 starters. I think this team has develped confidence against the SF pitchers and I truly expect Pitt to fade away in August.

hebroncougar
07-28-2012, 09:02 AM
The Reds do. As I said yesterday and will reiterate it today the Reds are now 19 games over .500 and also 19 games over vs. sub .500 teams. Which means they are merely .500 themselves against teams over .500.

And if that trend continues, they run away with the division. If they play .500 ball against the pirates and cards, they win easy.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

edabbs44
07-28-2012, 09:19 AM
The Reds do. As I said yesterday and will reiterate it today the Reds are now 19 games over .500 and also 19 games over vs. sub .500 teams. Which means they are merely .500 themselves against teams over .500.

Again, kind of solidifying my point. Cincy is virtually tied for 2nd in the NL in record vs teams .500 and above. There are only 3 teams in the NL with winning records in that situation.

bucksfan2
07-28-2012, 09:34 AM
Who scares me? It all depends on how a series falls.

The Giants really don't scare me especially if the Reds have home field advantage. They have the pitching but their offense is pretty blah. If Cain is on the mound for game one at home I think the Giants have an advantage.

I will lump the Pirates and Cards in the same catagory. I don't know if they can sustain their success going forward. I still am waiting for the Pirates to hit a rough patch and I don't know if Berkman, Beltran, and Furcal will stay healthy enough to pace that offense the rest of the season.

The team that really would scare me would be the Dodgers. The stuid way MLB set up the wild card, giving that team the first games at home over the better team will hurt the #1 seeded team. Playing the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium with Kershaw on the mound for game 1 would be tough. Especially with Kemp, Either, and Hanley in the middle of the order.

I always fear the Braves. They have decent pitcing, decent offense, and two hammers at the end of the game.

I don't know what to think of the Nats. Are they this good? And will they continue to be this good when Strasberg is shelved.

savafan
07-28-2012, 06:49 PM
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19676351/rangers-dodgers-braves-indians--cardinals-in-mix-for-shields

If the experts on James Shields are right, and I'm wrong, and he winds up going to the Cardinals, then that would increase my fear of that team.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2012, 07:04 PM
And if that trend continues, they run away with the division. If they play .500 ball against the pirates and cards, they win easy.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

Fair enough but still I think of the Contenders the Reds have one of if not the biggest flaws. The Cards Pen, the Reds lack of OBP% & LHH hitting & the Braves starters are pretty big issues. But I think the Cards will straighten out their pen, the Braves seem dead set on getting a starter so that just leaves the Reds.

edabbs44
07-28-2012, 07:11 PM
Fair enough but still I think of the Contenders the Reds have one of if not the biggest flaws. The Cards Pen, the Reds lack of OBP% & LHH hitting & the Braves starters are pretty big issues. But I think the Cards will straighten out their pen, the Braves seem dead set on getting a starter so that just leaves the Reds.

Pitt has a team OBP of .299 and a team OPS of .695 vs RHP, both way below Cincy.

edabbs44
07-28-2012, 07:14 PM
Fair enough but still I think of the Contenders the Reds have one of if not the biggest flaws. The Cards Pen, the Reds lack of OBP% & LHH hitting & the Braves starters are pretty big issues. But I think the Cards will straighten out their pen, the Braves seem dead set on getting a starter so that just leaves the Reds.

SF is also in similar to rougher shape in those areas compared to Cincy.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2012, 07:17 PM
Pitt has a team OBP of .299 and a team OPS of .695 vs RHP, both way below Cincy.

I've never been too concerned about Pittsburgh but they have improved, they will hang around and cause us some problems w/ regards to winning the division. Marte is sure to give them a nice boost. In the end I think we could take them though, their starters as I have said are beatable. It's most of the other teams that concern me.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2012, 07:18 PM
SF is also in similar to rougher shape in those areas compared to Cincy.

Arguably superior pitching, they also have an edge in experience. And for whatever reason their hacktastic ways seems to work for them. Probably because they are better than us at making contact.

RedlegJake
07-28-2012, 07:32 PM
SF - they arguably have better pitching 1-2-3-4 if Lincecum is back to his old form. Cain-Lincecum-Bumgartner-Zito > Cueto-Bailey-Latos-Leake
Plus I like their offense and they've added Scutaro - they're better balanced than the Reds, the one edge the Reds have is the bullpen.
Who has home field could be a huge deal in a series with the Giants. I think home field could be huge though for every team in the league because I don't see any team including the Reds as dominant to any other team this year.

Ghosts of 1990
07-28-2012, 11:03 PM
San Fran or Los Angeles I want no part of.

Washington is young. A year or two away. They'll be in the playoffs. They'll get bounced despite possibly entering with the best record. I don't think we match up that poorly with them.

Pittsburgh or St. Louis are no worry. Neither is Atlanta.

AmarilloRed
07-28-2012, 11:58 PM
The Pirates. I just think they're going to stay hot all year, make the playoffs, possibly even go to the World Series.I think if anyone knocks us out of the playoff hunt or beats us in the playoffs, it'll end up being the Pirates.

Phhhl
07-29-2012, 02:25 AM
Washington scares me most. They almost seem to have "run into" the best record in the NL. Plus, they probably have the best manager in the NL in Davey Johnson. Their inexperience doesn't deter me at all. Make no doubt about it. They are the team to beat going into the postseason. This year.