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Kc61
07-29-2012, 10:35 AM
Reds went 9-1, won 9 in a row including consecutive sweeps of Brewers and Astros, now 60-40, 31-18 home, 29-22 road, tied with Yanks and Nats for best record in MLB. Last season after 100 games, Reds were 49-51, so improvement of 11 games. Reds lead Pirates by 2 in Central, lead Cards by 6.5. Reds RS/RA is +65, third best in NL with Cards at +96, Nats at +81. Last season after 100 games, Reds were +35. Expected Standings as per ESPN (based on RS/RA) is 58-42, so Reds outperforming. All this with Votto still on DL, Redmond down after short stay, Xavier Paul with Reds. Despite blistering pace, Reds picked up 1 game on Bucs in this stretch.

Offense - Reds with .252 (9th in NL) BA/.317 (tied 8th-10th NL) OBP/ .419 (4th in NL) SLG/ .736 (4th in NL) OPS slash line. Each category improved from .249/.315/.415/.730 last time. Last season after 100 games the team OPS was .730, so higher this year. Difference from last season - SLG is now higher (.419 to .402), OBP is now lower (.317 from.328), BA is now lower (.252 from .258).

Last season these offensive percentage stats were on the decline. This season they have improved of late.

Reds have scored 425 runs, 9th most in NL, close behind Phils and Nats. Reds wOBA is .317, up from .315 last time. wRC+ is 95, up from 94. WAR on offensive side is 5th in NL at 16.5. BABIP is .294, ninth best in NL. Reds with 111 homers, fourth most in NL.

Reds OPS v. righties is .722 (8th in NL). Reds OPS v. lefties is .774 (3rd in NL). Last season after 100 games Reds OPS v. righties was .709, vs. lefties was .816. So improvement v. righties, decline v. lefties so far.

Some individual OPS comps based on last season's 100 game thread. Votto now 1.069 v. .917 last season at this stage. Bruce now .803 v .847 last year. Phillips .794 v. .744 last year after 100 games. Rolen .653 v. .676 last year.

Frazier now with .283/.340/.535/.875. Ludwick now with .252/.323/.528/.850.Over past thirty days, Ludwick at .985 OPS, Frazier at .916 OPS. Stubbs now at .682, almost up to last year's .686. Last 30 days, tablesetters Cozart and Stubbs at .279 and .263 OBP, respectively. Last 30 days Bruce at .709 OPS.

Pitching - 3.27 team ERA (2nd in NL). 3.38 v. lefty hitting (5th in NL). 3.18 v. righty hitting (3rd in NL). 3.17 away (2nd in NL). 3.38 home (6th in NL). 3.58 starting (5th in NL). 2.54 relief (1st in NL).

Overall team ERA has improved since last report from 3.31 to 3.27. Starting ERA improved from 3.62 to 3.58. Relief improved from 2.60 to 2.54. Last season after 100 games team ERA was 4.06 and improving. Starting was 4.51, fourteenth in NL, now 3.58 today. Pen was 3.20 now 2.54.

Reds BAA is .217, best in NL. Reds pitchers with 306 Ks and 116 BBs. K/BB rate of 2.91 trails only the Phils in NL.

Using SIERA pitching stat, Reds are fourth best in NL with 3.67. Using xFIP Reds are fifth in NL with 3.77. Using FIP Reds are 4th at 3.68.

Cueto now 13-5, 2.39 ERA, 106 Ks, 34 BBs, 1.21 WHIP, 139.1 innings. Chapman now 4-4, 1.45 ERA, 94 Ks, 14 BBs, .72 WHIP, 49.2 innings.

Bailey now 9-6 with 3.53 ERA. Over last 30 days, Bailey 4-0, 1.43 ERA, 37.2 IP/31 base hits, 34 Ks, 8 BBs, 1.04 WHIP.

Some bullpen numbers over last 30 days. Arredondo 6.14 ERA, 2.18 WHIP. Ondrusek 3.38 ERA, 1.69 WHIP. Marshall, 2.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP. Bray (ony 2.2 innings) 3.38 ERA, 2.63 WHIP.

Fielding - Reds UZR rating is 0.00 ninth best in NL. Tops is Braves at 25.6. Last year, after 100 games, Reds UZR rating was 31.1 best in NL. Reds with 53 errors, identical to last year after 100 games, tied for NL best mark, includes four error outing at Houston (in win), Reds had only 46 errors last report. Reds tied for NL lead at .986 FPCT, 7th in DER (mlb.com) and fourth lowest stolen base percentage against them .659. Hanigan finally got first passed ball of season.

nate
07-29-2012, 10:52 AM
Nice breakdown, KC. That takes a lot of work.

High five!

Kc61
07-29-2012, 11:02 AM
Nice breakdown, KC. That takes a lot of work.

High five!

Thank you. I regret that I am not able to report a larger NL Central lead, which the Reds deserve.

cincrazy
07-29-2012, 11:55 AM
You do a great job with this KC. If Redszone were a baseball team, you'd be on my list of "untouchables" at the trade deadline :)

George Foster
07-29-2012, 06:33 PM
thank you for all your hard work...you keep us in the loop!

SidneySlicker
07-29-2012, 09:46 PM
Ditto. Kudo's on all the work, it is greatly appreciated!

wheels
07-29-2012, 10:31 PM
Kc is Redszone's Rudy Stein.

Scrap Irony
07-29-2012, 11:19 PM
My wife looked over my shoulder as I was reading the opening post of this thread. (Perhaps because I was making those odd "huh" and "wow" sounds that are a part of a daily Redszone visit.)

She said, "What are you reading? Advanced math?"

That made me fell really smart.

Heh.

Kc61
07-29-2012, 11:36 PM
All the nice comments are appreciated very much.

kaldaniels
07-29-2012, 11:37 PM
Thanks for the update!

kaldaniels
07-29-2012, 11:40 PM
9th best UZR in the NL warrants some discussion if you ask me.

gilpdawg
07-30-2012, 02:41 AM
9th best UZR in the NL warrants some discussion if you ask me.

I'm beginning to think UZR is full of crap. I have a hard time with a metric that says Stubbs isn't good defensively. Same goes for FRAA.

757690
07-30-2012, 03:10 AM
now 60-40

At this point, the only stat worth caring about. (Although I still love this thread, don't stop, lol)

WildcatFan
07-30-2012, 09:44 AM
I'm beginning to think UZR is full of crap. I have a hard time with a metric that says Stubbs isn't good defensively. Same goes for FRAA.

I agree wholeheartedly. UZR/150 also has Bruce at a negative UZR the last two seasons after an 18.4 in 2009. Phillips is also consistently too low. I know I don't have a scout's eye, but I also know he makes plays that only about 4 middle infielders in baseball can make.

Kc61
07-30-2012, 10:48 AM
9th best UZR in the NL warrants some discussion if you ask me.

Ludwick has a -3.4 UZR.
Frazier at third -1.4; Rolen at third -1.5
Bruce -2.6
Stubbs -1.3
Valdez and Cairo are negative as well, except Cairo is positive at first base.

The positives are Phillips 5.2, Cozart 3.9, Votto 3.4.

Heisey is slightly positive when you average in the various positions he plays.

I guess they don't do UZR for catchers or pitchers.

Wouldn't have expected the outfield to be so low, seems kind of odd, but whatever.

redssince75
07-30-2012, 12:30 PM
Fielding - Reds UZR rating is 0.00 ninth best in NL. Last year, after 100 games, Reds UZR rating was 31.1 best in NL. Reds with 53 errors, identical to last year after 100 games

To add to the comments on UZR, i have no idea how it is calculated, but any defensive metric that changes so wildly when errors are identical, would make no sense to me.

Scrap Irony
07-30-2012, 01:12 PM
You have to take UZR over about a three-year period. Used in 100-game samples, it's not all that reliable. If you take the Red defense over a three-year period, it's well above average.

dougdirt
07-30-2012, 01:14 PM
You have to take UZR over about a three-year period. Used in 100-game samples, it's not all that reliable. If you take the Red defense over a three-year period, it's well above average.

Of course the problem with that though, is that defensive ability changes in a three year period of time. Use UZR as a guide, but it isn't more than that.

Scrap Irony
07-30-2012, 03:30 PM
Use UZR as a guide, but it isn't more than that.

I'd argue that all stats are guides and nothing more if we're focusing on predictive measures.

But, as to past performance, yeah, it's the closest we've got to unbiased analysis. Until something better comes along (that the common man can see), it's the tops.

It's crude, but effective. (Kind of like using a rock on a nail. Since there's no hammer, it's the best tool we have.)

dougdirt
07-30-2012, 03:35 PM
I'd argue that all stats are guides and nothing more if we're focusing on predictive measures.

But, as to past performance, yeah, it's the closest we've got to unbiased analysis. Until something better comes along (that the common man can see), it's the tops.

It's crude, but effective. (Kind of like using a rock on a nail. Since there's no hammer, it's the best tool we have.)

I prefer BIS +/- over UZR.

Scrap Irony
07-30-2012, 04:05 PM
I prefer BIS +/- over UZR.

Why?