PDA

View Full Version : Stubbs' recent surge



Blitz Dorsey
07-31-2012, 10:57 AM
Anyone else think Stubbs' play the last two weeks has made the Reds gunshy on pulling the trigger on a deal for a leadoff hitter/centerfielder? I sure do.

I hope this is Drew actually turning the corner and not some mirage. If it's the latter, the Reds will regret standing pat at the deadline.

cincrazy
07-31-2012, 11:10 AM
Anyone else think Stubbs' play the last two weeks has made the Reds gunshy on pulling the trigger on a deal for a leadoff hitter/centerfielder? I sure do.

I hope this is Drew actually turning the corner and not some mirage. If it's the latter, the Reds will regret standing pat at the deadline.

Quite frankly, I think a few different things come into play here.

Firstly, he'd been so bad, he was due for some kind of correction.

And secondly, we've been facing awful pitching, and a ton of lefties, in ballparks favorable to hitters. GABP, Crawford Boxes in Houston, Coors... not taking away from his recent hot streak, he's done a great job. But I wouldn't expect this to be the new norm for Stubbs. Let's see how he does in the Pirates series against good pitching.

Blitz Dorsey
07-31-2012, 11:13 AM
Yeah, that's why I'm concerned this is a complete mirage. Not saying we should have overpaid for Victorino (he's headed to the Dodgers) but there has to be some type of improvement that could have been made. Hey, there's still some time.

cincrazy
07-31-2012, 11:15 AM
Yeah, that's why I'm concerned this is a complete mirage. Not saying we should have overpaid for Victorino (he's headed to the Dodgers) but there has to be some type of improvement that could have been made. Hey, there's still some time.

Agreed. And I think Walt understands this. Problem is, teams aren't cooperating much. Luckily for us, this leadoff problem is only a short term problem, until Hamilton is ready. Worst-case scenario we can shift BP to leadoff the remainder of this year, move Ludwick to cleanup, Stubbs or Cozart down in the order, and fix this problem in-house.

Blitz Dorsey
07-31-2012, 11:17 AM
Someone pointed out that even with Stubbs' recent surge, he's still only batting .230/.300 in July. My goodness I hope they don't make any kind of decision/non-decision based on the last two weeks of Drew Stubbs' play against crappy pitching in hitter's ballparks.

Homer Bailey
07-31-2012, 11:41 AM
Someone pointed out that even with Stubbs' recent surge, he's still only batting .230/.300 in July. My goodness I hope they don't make any kind of decision/non-decision based on the last two weeks of Drew Stubbs' play against crappy pitching in hitter's ballparks.

OPS:

May: .709
June: .844
July: .750

Selective end points, yes, but he has recovered from his horrific start, and he's still been very BABIP unlucky.

The biggest key improvement we've seen from Stubbs this year is that his power appears to be much closer to his 2010 numbers than his 2012. I would trade that for more contact and more walks, but Stubbs has a .704 OPS on the year. He's not nearly the problem that people make him out to be, and he's on pace to be about a 2 win player, or about league average.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 11:54 AM
Anyone else think Stubbs' play the last two weeks has made the Reds gunshy on pulling the trigger on a deal for a leadoff hitter/centerfielder? I sure do.

I hope this is Drew actually turning the corner and not some mirage. If it's the latter, the Reds will regret standing pat at the deadline.

Let's just say I think it's easier for them to spin that they don't a starter/bigger impact player than just a bench guy.

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 12:05 PM
And secondly, we've been facing awful pitching, and a ton of lefties, in ballparks favorable to hitters. GABP, Crawford Boxes in Houston, Coors... not taking away from his recent hot streak, he's done a great job. But I wouldn't expect this to be the new norm for Stubbs. Let's see how he does in the Pirates series against good pitching.

This is a good point.. but on the other hand, all the Reds hitters faced the same pitchers, and Drew had the best week of them all.

I think Drew is kind of like a "Bruce light".. he will go on hot streaks that can carry the team.. I don't recall the exact stats, but he really caught fire towards the end of 2010 which also helped the Reds win the division.

Guys like Stubbs are hard to cut bait on. When he's cold, it's frustrating. But when he's hot, he's an incredibile cataylst. Honestly, if the Reds stand pat, I won't be upset. I'm not sure a CF with no power but a better OBP is that much of an upgrade.. To make the math easier, let's say the season is half over.. the CF is projected to get 300 more plate appearances.. Well, a .050 OBP seems huge, but it's only getting on base 15 more times over 81 games... Drew's power/speed seems to make him score more frequently when he does get on base .. No way to concretely "prove" that but I don't think it's a slam dunk that an OBP upgrade at CF (especially at the expense of slugging) automatically translates to significantly more runs.. Then there's cost.. is it worth giving up A level prospects to score a marginal incremental amount of runs over the rest of the season? (Possibly no addtional runs)

I'm not saying Drew will stay hot, but he's adequate.
As far as the playoffs go.. we will face better pitching, but even good pitchers make mistakes.. Drew can hit mistake pitches out of the park.. A slap hitting CF with no power (hypothetical player) can't really do that.

Benihana
07-31-2012, 12:06 PM
I want to keep Stubbs as part of a platoon. That's why I want DeJesus.

In the offseason, we can reevaluate.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-31-2012, 12:16 PM
I think the timing of Stubbs hot streak at the end of July isn't a coincidence. He had to be feeling his spot as the starting CF - and possibly on the roster entirely - getting awful hot after his below-mediocre play until two weeks ago. Heck, he's even been more aggressive on the basepaths; last night he stole second on the first pitch after his infield hit.

My fear is that after the July 31 pressure is off, Stubbs lapses back into his stubborn, content and ineffective ways.

cincrazy
07-31-2012, 12:19 PM
I think the timing of Stubbs hot streak at the end of July isn't a coincidence. He had to be feeling his spot as the starting CF - and possibly on the roster entirely - getting awful hot after his below-mediocre play until two weeks ago. Heck, he's even been more aggressive on the basepaths; last night he stole second on the first pitch after his infield hit.

My fear is that after the July 31 pressure is off, Stubbs lapses back into his stubborn, content and ineffective ways.

I don't necessarily agree with you here. I think the pressure's been on Stubbs all year. He knows, and has known for quite some time, his spot is up for grabs. He knows nobody is happy with the year he had last year. I just think he is what he is. Which, don't get me wrong, I'm not a diehard Stubbs hater. I think he has a place on this roster. But he shouldn't be starting against RH pitching.

wheels
07-31-2012, 12:42 PM
He turns into Juan Castro against righties. Putrid isn't a strong enough word.

toledodan
07-31-2012, 12:51 PM
all good points. i really want drew to be the player we all think he can be. i just don't know if he will ever be that player. he has just good enough upside to keep him in there but bad enough to hurt the team. bruce is almost the same player but gives you more power numbers. i hope we don't regret not making a move.

Vottomatic
07-31-2012, 01:06 PM
According to baseball-reference.com, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=stubbdr01&year=Career&t=b

.....Stubbs splits on first half and second half for his career:
First Half: .236 average, .309 OBP, .385 SLG, .695 OPS
Second Half: .263, .335 OBP, .431 SLG, .766 OPS