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reds44
07-31-2012, 03:28 PM
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: #Reds get Broxton.

cincyinco
07-31-2012, 03:34 PM
Nice.. But.. Why?

reds1869
07-31-2012, 03:34 PM
Very nice if true.

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 03:35 PM
Assuming no other moves, who from the pen goes?

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 03:37 PM
3.5 walks per 9 innings.
6.3 strikeouts per 9 innings.

That is not what a good reliever looks like.

MikeThierry
07-31-2012, 03:37 PM
Are you guys trying to create the most dominant bullpen in the last 20 years? This is overkill, lol. Great move on the Reds part.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 03:39 PM
3.5 walks per 9 innings.
6.3 strikeouts per 9 innings.

That is not what a good reliever looks like.

His velocity has recently been returning, Doug. Remember he's coming off surgery. Those K numbers will be higher by the end of the year IMHO.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 03:43 PM
He's not worth a top prospect like Gregorius lt alone Hamilton. He's worth Ondrusek. It all depends on what we gave up. Who around here pegged a RH reliever as a top need?

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 03:44 PM
His velocity has recently been returning, Doug. Remember he's coming off surgery. Those K numbers will be higher by the end of the year IMHO.

April/May he has 7 walks/12 strikeouts in 19.2 innings.
June/July he has 7 walks/13 strikeouts in 16 innings.

I guess it is up, but it still isn't good. And his WHIP in June/July is 1.56. That isn't a guy you should be going after to try and improve your bullpen.

Benihana
07-31-2012, 03:44 PM
Reds gave up Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for the right handed reliever.

cinreds21
07-31-2012, 03:45 PM
Todd Redmond is with the Reds right now.

marcshoe
07-31-2012, 03:46 PM
It would be nice if the price was Redmond, who was pulled back from his start in Louisville today. Likely to be a bit more, though.

rotnoid
07-31-2012, 03:46 PM
This just feels like a move that leads into another move. But time is winding down. I just don't get it.

cinreds21
07-31-2012, 03:46 PM
Subaran!

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 03:47 PM
Reds gave up Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for the right handed reliever.
I do think Broxton can be better than Gary Majewski.

cinreds21
07-31-2012, 03:47 PM
I repeat, JC Sulbaran traded to the Royals for Broxton.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 03:47 PM
Ew.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 03:48 PM
April/May he has 7 walks/12 strikeouts in 19.2 innings.
June/July he has 7 walks/13 strikeouts in 16 innings.

I guess it is up, but it still isn't good. And his WHIP in June/July is 1.56. That isn't a guy you should be going after to try and improve your bullpen.

Since when do we use WHIP to measure pitchers? Doug, I know you wouldn't ordinarily use that measure if it didn't suit your case.

Vottomatic
07-31-2012, 03:48 PM
I like it.

It's not all about K's.

Dude has a 56.6% groundball rate. That kicks butt when you're pitching in GABP.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 03:50 PM
This just feels like a move that leads into another move. But time is winding down. I just don't get it.

Bowden did say a half hour ago that Broxton would allow the Reds to trade a reliever as part of the Span package. So maybe that's the endgame here.

VR
07-31-2012, 03:50 PM
What his OBP? Can he lead off?

SirFelixCat
07-31-2012, 03:50 PM
Meh on who we got and what we gave up.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 03:52 PM
1.50 WHIP over the last 3 years, with a K/9 that is Ondrusk-esque.

Meh. Good deal for KC.

And this isn't "hand-wringing" either. Simply an opinion.

Vottomatic
07-31-2012, 03:53 PM
More stats from baseball-reference.com:

Broxton has his best HR/9 at 0.3 of his career. Actually it ties his 2008 season.
Also, his BB/9 is the lowest it's been in 3 years at 3.5. It was 3.4 in 2009, his best season.

Dude might be on the comeback. Love that groundball rate in GABP.

Blitz Dorsey
07-31-2012, 03:53 PM
If it's Sulbaran-for-Broxton straight up, I like the deal. Sulbaran has several pitchers ahead of him on the Reds' top prospects list (Corcino, Stephenson, Cingrani, Travieso, Lotzkar).

Kc61
07-31-2012, 03:55 PM
I think this trade is all about Aroldis.

My guess is Walt doesn't like all the heavy usage.

Broxton has 23 saves, he can close games. He will back up Chappy at closer and set up as well.

Reds pen from the right side was weaker than left side. (Still is, even with the new addition.)

757690
07-31-2012, 03:56 PM
The one thing that always helps in the post season... Relief pitching.

757690
07-31-2012, 03:57 PM
Sulbran for Broxton a much fairer trade than Cox for Mujeica.

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 03:57 PM
I repeat, JC Sulbaran traded to the Royals for Broxton.
Thanks for the info, 21.

cinreds21
07-31-2012, 04:01 PM
"a couple of minor league players for Broxton"

cinreds21
07-31-2012, 04:02 PM
DONNIE JOSEPH

RedlegJake
07-31-2012, 04:09 PM
Broxton has been a 2 way street all season. Sometimes lights out, other games he is plain awful. Some games he can't find the strike zone if you widened it by 2X. Other games he gets 3 grounders and its over.

Sulbaran isn't too bad but if Joseph is included I think its way overpay.

WildcatFan
07-31-2012, 04:09 PM
DONNIE JOSEPH

Closer of the future Donnie Joseph? That seems unreasonable.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 04:13 PM
Walt overpays once again.

Anyone else you want to add, Walt?

Wow.

redsfan30
07-31-2012, 04:13 PM
With Kansas City in Cleveland, is there any chance Broxton is in uniform and ready to go tonight?

MikeS21
07-31-2012, 04:15 PM
Closer of the future Donnie Joseph? That seems unreasonable.
??? Not sure I'd ever call Donnie Joseph the "closer of the future" unless he suddenly develops a 97 mph fastball.

_Sir_Charles_
07-31-2012, 04:17 PM
I think this trade is all about Aroldis.

My guess is Walt doesn't like all the heavy usage.

Broxton has 23 saves, he can close games. He will back up Chappy at closer and set up as well.

Reds pen from the right side was weaker than left side. (Still is, even with the new addition.)

As soon as I saw this deal, THIS is what I thought. Not thrilled with including Joseph in the trade, but it's not that big of a deal. Neither prospects were going to see time with Cincy anytime soon IMO.

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:17 PM
Walt overpays once again.

Anyone else you want to add, Walt?

Wow.

He gave value to get value for Latos. Other than that I'm not sure what history of "overpaying" you are talking about? Zach Stewart? Looking like we sold high there.

HokieRed
07-31-2012, 04:19 PM
As soon as I saw this deal, THIS is what I thought.

It's also about the rotation. Another righty to the pen leaves LeCure free to go to the rotation if we need him. With no other acquisition, the choice would be between LeCure and Redmond (possibly Villareal). I'd guess they prefer the more experienced LeCure. We're going to need some starts from somebody other than our current 5 to get to the end of this thing.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2012, 04:22 PM
Kevin Goldstein:

Amazing trade for Royals. I might rather have Donnie Joseph than Broxton in the big leagues right now.

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein

Blitz Dorsey
07-31-2012, 04:22 PM
Crap. I knew Sulbaran straight up was too good to be true. Hate to lose Donnie Joseph. Best left-handed relief pitcher in our sytem.

WildcatFan
07-31-2012, 04:24 PM
??? Not sure I'd ever call Donnie Joseph the "closer of the future" unless he suddenly develops a 97 mph fastball.

??? He's closed at every level since he's been drafted.

You don't need a 97 mph fastball when your K/9 has been over 9 since you were drafted.

Chapman's spoiling you.

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 04:25 PM
Kevin Goldstein:

Amazing trade for Royals. I might rather have Donnie Joseph than Broxton in the big leagues right now.

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein

There's good reasons that baseball writers don't usually end up getting GM jobs and this tweet is one of them.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:26 PM
There's good reasons that baseball writers don't usually end up getting GM jobs and this tweet is one of them.

There are plenty of guys out there who are now working for MLB teams who did things incredibly similar to what KG does right now.

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 04:27 PM
There are plenty of guys out there who are now working for MLB teams who did things incredibly similar to what KG does right now.

Are they GMs?

Benihana
07-31-2012, 04:27 PM
Montgomery Inn and Skyline stock are up big in after-market trading

JaxRed
07-31-2012, 04:28 PM
Wonder if Donnie goes to KC and not AAA

Plus Plus
07-31-2012, 04:28 PM
??? He's closed at every level since he's been drafted.

You don't need a 97 mph fastball when your K/9 has been over 9 since you were drafted.

Chapman's spoiling you.

Just for context, Joseph has 5 saves this year in 18 appearances in AAA. 13 in 26 at AA earlier this year, and 8 in 57 in 2011 in AA.

He has closed, but he hasn't necessarily been used as a closer, per se.

11larkin11
07-31-2012, 04:28 PM
Reds fans find out we traded for a reliever:

OMG Why did we trade for a reliiver? We have so many relievers already!

Find out DJ is in trade:

OMG why are we trading away good bullpen arms???

hebroncougar
07-31-2012, 04:28 PM
Montgomery Inn and Skyline stock are up big in after-market trading

:lol:

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 04:29 PM
Wonder if Donnie goes to KC and not AAA

By the sounds of it he's already good enough to be their(KC) closer.

RedsManRick
07-31-2012, 04:29 PM
W T F

Brutus
07-31-2012, 04:30 PM
He gave value to get value for Latos. Other than that I'm not sure what history of "overpaying" you are talking about? Zach Stewart? Looking like we sold high there.

Does the hand-wringing surprise you?

The thing is, I imagine most of the same people that complain of overpaying would be complaining if they didn't make the trades at all.

I mean, how upset would people be right now if they had not traded for Latos, Marshall and Broxton and head into the deadline no better?

Superdude
07-31-2012, 04:31 PM
Walt sure doesn't bargain hunt well. I'll hold out hope that he sees Broxton getting stronger down the stretch I guess.

kaldaniels
07-31-2012, 04:31 PM
Props to our own Doug for once again bringing up Zach Stewart for Rolen in a tweet from Fay.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 04:32 PM
This system is not packed with LH pitching prospects. I can't believe Walt thinks that 2 mos of Big Brox is worth both of these guys.

redsfan30
07-31-2012, 04:32 PM
Redszone apparently hates this trade.

With this knowledge you can now safely book Broxton to an All Star level second half helping cement our playoff spot.

:laugh:

WildcatFan
07-31-2012, 04:32 PM
Just for context, Joseph has 5 saves this year in 18 appearances in AAA. 13 in 26 at AA earlier this year, and 8 in 57 in 2011 in AA.

He has closed, but he hasn't necessarily been used as a closer, per se.

Thanks, but I was still under the impression he'd been pegged at least as closer potential since AA. Seems like he had the right peripherals anyway.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:32 PM
Props to our own Doug for once again bringing up Zach Stewart for Rolen in a tweet from Fay.

And I still stand by the fact that we overpaid. We were literally the only team who wanted Rolen and that he would accept a trade to. And we gave up our #1 pitching prospect, plus a Major Leaguer and a minor league reliever who had some value.

muddie
07-31-2012, 04:32 PM
I hate to see DJ headed out of the Cincy organization, I really do. I liked he and Freeman a lot. If DJ ends up on K.C.'s major league roster...good for him.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 04:34 PM
Does the hand-wringing surprise you?

The thing is, I imagine most of the same people that complain of overpaying would be complaining if they didn't make the trades at all.

I mean, how upset would people be right now if they had not traded for Latos, Marshall and Broxton and head into the deadline no better?

"Hand-wringing". More hyperbole. Go back and read threads. I was okay with Pierre or standing pat.

Carry on.

Team Clark
07-31-2012, 04:35 PM
Just a guess... wondering if Masset isn't going to be ready sooner than later. I heard he was progressing but they always say that. Can't risk losing these tight games.

If there's a brawl, Broxton has to be first out of the dugout. LOL

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:36 PM
Just a guess... wondering if Masset isn't going to be ready sooner than later. I heard he was progressing but they always say that. Can't risk losing these tight games.

If there's a brawl, Broxton has to be first out of the dugout. LOL

He will also be the last one to reach the brawl. Unless it is at a buffet.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 04:36 PM
"Hand-wringing". More hyperbole. Go back and read threads. I was okay with Pierre or standing pat.

Carry on.

It's not hyperbole and if you have a problem with me, you should take it private. You've been coming at me quite a few times since last week. Clearly you're still upset.

So if you have a problem, you know where the PM function is located.

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:37 PM
And I still stand by the fact that we overpaid. We were literally the only team who wanted Rolen and that he would accept a trade to. And we gave up our #1 pitching prospect, plus a Major Leaguer and a minor league reliever who had some value.

You certainly have an extreme level of confidence in your opinions. I'll give you that.

RedsManRick
07-31-2012, 04:37 PM
It would be one thing to trade those two for two months of the 2009 Broxton. But the guy they just acquired is comparable to another Arredondo.

Cyclone792
07-31-2012, 04:37 PM
Broxton's HR/9 should play well at GABP, and that should help the bullpen even more. Hopefully he's deemed healthy and might get a bounce back in that K/9. One other thing, this move also signifies that the Reds might be waving the white flag on Masset and Bray this year.

I'm not too worried about what the Reds gave up. They kept their upper level prospects in the system, especially Hamilton, so the system is still fine.

I'm disappointed they couldn't find some more offense, but at the same time I'm not sure what the asking prices were. As MWM alluded to in the other thread, I'd rather keep Hamilton. If other teams zoned in on Billy then maybe it's best Walt didn't pull that trigger.

All in all, I'm fine with the deal so long as Broxton's fully healthy.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:38 PM
You certainly have an extreme level of confidence in your opinions. I'll give you that.

Why have one if you don't believe in it? I don't just make some opinion off the cusp with no rhyme or reason for it. I form the opinion based on what I believe.

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:38 PM
"Hand-wringing". More hyperbole. Go back and read threads. I was okay with Pierre or standing pat.

Carry on.



Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg
Walt overpays once again.

Anyone else you want to add, Walt?

Wow.

I actually believe the hyperbole belongs to you. But that is just my opinion.

Carry on.

mdccclxix
07-31-2012, 04:39 PM
I like it. Load up on guys that have been there. Plus, if a starter goes down it leaves an option for Chapman to the rotation.

WildcatFan
07-31-2012, 04:40 PM
If there's a brawl, Broxton has to be first out of the dugout. LOL

He may be first out of the dugout, but he'll still be the last one there.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:40 PM
I like it. Load up on guys that have been there. Plus, if a starter goes down it leaves an option for Chapman to the rotation.

No it doesn't. Chapman is not starting this year for the Reds. They could lose 3 starters and it wouldn't happen.

jojo
07-31-2012, 04:40 PM
I like it.

It's not all about K's.

Dude has a 56.6% groundball rate. That kicks butt when you're pitching in GABP.

If it's sustainable.....

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:40 PM
Why have one if you don't believe in it? I don't just make some opinion off the cusp with no rhyme or reason for it. I form the opinion based on what I believe.

Sometimes people look at things they've said and done and say "wow, maybe I wasn't right about that". It is technically possible.

Just sayin'

crazybob60
07-31-2012, 04:41 PM
Well.....at least we got some NLDS and NLCS experience out of the this deal. I am still very torn on how I feel about this trade.

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 04:41 PM
I like it. Load up on guys that have been there. Plus, if a starter goes down it leaves an option for Chapman to the rotation.

Yeah it give the Reds more pitching dept and adds another closer option.I like games being over when the Reds lead after 7.

mdccclxix
07-31-2012, 04:41 PM
No it doesn't. Chapman is not starting this year for the Reds. They could lose 3 starters and it wouldn't happen.

I believe it does.

reds44
07-31-2012, 04:41 PM
I believe it does.
No it doesn't. Doug is right on, and I don't even hate the trade.

crazybob60
07-31-2012, 04:41 PM
He may be first out of the dugout, but he'll still be the last one there.

unless there is a hamburger on the field. Ok, I will stop with these jokes, I just couldn't help myself.

mdccclxix
07-31-2012, 04:42 PM
Yeah it give the Reds more pitching dept and adds another closer option.I like games being over when the Reds lead after 7.

We may see Dusty get a shorter leash as well, which should help.

Puffy
07-31-2012, 04:42 PM
And I still stand by the fact that we overpaid. We were literally the only team who wanted Rolen and that he would accept a trade to. And we gave up our #1 pitching prospect, plus a Major Leaguer and a minor league reliever who had some value.

The fact that you still won't admit you were wrong says more about you than it does about the trade, IMO.

mdccclxix
07-31-2012, 04:43 PM
No it doesn't. Doug is right on, and I don't even hate the trade.

I think we'll all be glad if we don't have to find out.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 04:44 PM
It's not hyperbole and if you have a problem with me, you should take it private. You've been coming at me quite a few times since last week. Clearly you're still upset.

So if you have a problem, you know where the PM function is located.


You responded to a post by pedro that was responding to me.

As for the other thing, I'm not sure what you are talking about. We had a difference in opinion on Ondrusek in a gamethread. If that is me "coming at you", I'm sorry, but this just may be an example of the hyperbole I just mentioned. If I'm wrong please, post links to the few times I have come at you in the last week.

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 04:45 PM
Chapman/Marshal/Broxton plus others = 1990 BP?

bucksfan2
07-31-2012, 04:45 PM
I like it. Add depth to the pen and allows Chapman to get some rest. The Reds bot Broxton for two minor league relievers. Remember Zack Cy Stewart, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, etc? Guys are a dime a dozen.

NC Reds
07-31-2012, 04:45 PM
I was hoping Donnie Joseph would replace Bill Bray on the roster soon. I'm in the "overpaid" camp on this one.

mdccclxix
07-31-2012, 04:45 PM
That Goldstein quote was not even in the context of the Reds, it was just pure vacuum sealed puffery. He's an outsider free to say what he wants.

traderumor
07-31-2012, 04:46 PM
Ondrusek is shaky, Massett is probably not being counted on for pitching any meaningful innings this year, Simon has been a pleasant surprise but is certainly not someone I was ever counting on for late innings. He is an upgrade to Ondrusek, Simon, Bray, and Arredondo for a couple of prospects.

The head scratcher I see right now is Casey Megehee for Chad Qualls :confused:

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:46 PM
Sometimes people look at things they've said and done and say "wow, maybe I wasn't right about that". It is technically possible.

Just sayin'

Sure. I just don't think I was incorrect here.

And yes, I have been wrong before, in case anyone was going to ask.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 04:46 PM
You responded to a post by pedro that was responding to me.

As for the other thing, I'm not sure what you are talking about. We had a difference in opinion on Ondrusek in a gamethread. If that is me "coming at you", I'm sorry, but this just may be an example of the hyperbole I just mentioned. If I'm wrong please, post links to the few times I have come at you in the last week.

I'm not getting into it on here. I've said what I've said and stated my position. Your posts have been acknowledged by others to come across as doing what you're accusing me and others of. Just consider that.

reds44
07-31-2012, 04:47 PM
Sure. I just don't think I was incorrect here.

And yes, I have been wrong before, in case anyone was going to ask.
You said he'd win a Cy Young in Toronto. You were wrong.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:48 PM
Ondrusek is shaky, Massett is probably not being counted on for pitching any meaningful innings this year, Simon has been a pleasant surprise but is certainly not someone I was ever counting on for late innings. He is an upgrade to Ondrusek, Simon, Bray, and Arredondo for a couple of prospects.

The head scratcher I see right now is Casey Megehee for Chad Qualls :confused:

He might be an incredibly small upgrade to Ondrusek and a hurt Bray. I would take Simon and Arredondo over him without thinking about it though. JJ hoover for that matter too.

IslandRed
07-31-2012, 04:48 PM
My quick opinion: 1) Possibly an overpay, and 2) I don't particularly care. I don't think Joseph is destined to be an elite major-league closer or setup guy, and I can't remember the last time a team seriously regretted trading a 24-year-old minor-league future middle reliever. I'm sure it's happened, but the odds are in the Reds' favor here.

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 04:48 PM
And yes, I have been wrong before, in case anyone was going to ask.
You don't have any posts in the 'I was wrong about...' thread. :p

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 04:48 PM
I actually believe the hyperbole belongs to you. But that is just my opinion.

Carry on.


Meh, it was my initial reaction to the trade. Carry on doing what you do.

jojo
07-31-2012, 04:48 PM
W T F

Its a bit of a puzzlator but its a bullpen fiesta.

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:48 PM
Sure. I just don't think I was incorrect here.

And yes, I have been wrong before, in case anyone was going to ask.

Welcome to the club.

I try to be wrong at least twice a day.

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 04:49 PM
Hurry up and merge the ORG and Sundeck, give the mods the night off and lets see who's left standing tomorrow!!!

Brutus
07-31-2012, 04:49 PM
Sure. I just don't think I was incorrect here.

And yes, I have been wrong before, in case anyone was going to ask.

No matter how mediocre Stewart continues to be, you don't think you may have been incorrect?

The Reds weren't even sure Stewart would cut it as a starter. Just because you thought he would be a future Cy Young candidate doesn't mean the Reds shared your optimism. It could just be that the Reds weren't as high on him, and if that's the case, he's done nothing to really make that seem silly. At what point do you concede that Stewart has not lived up to your expectations, and maybe the Reds didn't overpay because your expectations were way too high?

wolfboy
07-31-2012, 04:49 PM
Welcome to the club.

I try to be wrong at least twice a day.

before I get to work. My wife might say I'm not very good at that.

kaldaniels
07-31-2012, 04:49 PM
And I still stand by the fact that we overpaid. We were literally the only team who wanted Rolen and that he would accept a trade to. And we gave up our #1 pitching prospect, plus a Major Leaguer and a minor league reliever who had some value.

Just bustin chops.

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:49 PM
As for the trade? I like it. It was just a couple of weeks ago where it was seeming like the BP was wearing thin. This helps now IMO.

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 04:50 PM
And I still stand by the fact that we overpaid. We were literally the only team who wanted Rolen and that he would accept a trade to. And we gave up our #1 pitching prospect, plus a Major Leaguer and a minor league reliever who had some value.

Wow.
You thought that Stewart was our #1 prospect. Obviously the Reds thought differently.

The only guy that ended up having value was EdE as a DH.
Stewart might eventually make something out of himself, but it's not looking good now

You've never said what a "Fair price" for Rolen would've been..

wolfboy
07-31-2012, 04:50 PM
As for the trade? I like it. It was just a couple of weeks ago where it was seeming like the BP was wearing thin. This helps now IMO.

I'm happy to wait and see. I have more questions about Broxton than regrets about Sulbaran and Joseph.

crazybob60
07-31-2012, 04:51 PM
I am just curious....was I the only person who didn't get any work today done?

Puffy
07-31-2012, 04:51 PM
Welcome to the club.

I try to be wrong at least twice a day.

You do realize you are wrong more in one day than Raisor has been in his life, right?

Plus, he invented the lava lamp.

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 04:51 PM
I'm happy to wait and see. I have more questions about Broxton than regrets about Sulbaran and Joseph.
This is my stance as well.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 04:51 PM
As for the trade? I like it. It was just a couple of weeks ago where it was seeming like the BP was wearing thin. This helps now IMO.

I'm not crazy about Joseph leaving, but I think Broxton is an upgrade. And call me crazy, but people have been extremely agitated over the number of high-leverage innings given to Ondrusek. Well, I can't fathom people wouldn't rather have Broxton being given those innings.

Problem solved.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:51 PM
You don't have any posts in the 'I was wrong about...' thread. :p

Fixed that one for you.

wolfboy
07-31-2012, 04:52 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120731/SPT04/307310024/Report-Reds-acquire-Broxton?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Reds


The other is likely Donnie Joseph, a 2-year-old left-hander, who was a combined 8-3 with a 1.72 at Double-A and 68 Ks, 17 BBs in 52.1 innings at Triple-A Louisville.

This has to violate some kind of child labor law.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 04:52 PM
I like it. Add depth to the pen and allows Chapman to get some rest. The Reds bot Broxton for two minor league relievers. Remember Zack Cy Stewart, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, etc? Guys are a dime a dozen.

Let's just hope Donnie Joseph doesn't become this decade's BJ Ryan

Danny Serafini
07-31-2012, 04:53 PM
I am just curious....was I the only person who didn't get any work today done?

Between this and the Olympics, I have not been very productive today.

pedro
07-31-2012, 04:54 PM
You do realize you are wrong more in one day than Raisor has been in his life, right?

Plus, he invented the lava lamp.

and he doesn't even have to wear pants to run rings around my wrongness.

Not that I've ever seen that happen...

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:54 PM
No matter how mediocre Stewart continues to be, you don't think you may have been incorrect?

The Reds weren't even sure Stewart would cut it as a starter. Just because you thought he would be a future Cy Young candidate doesn't mean the Reds shared your optimism. It could just be that the Reds weren't as high on him, and if that's the case, he's done nothing to really make that seem silly. At what point do you concede that Stewart has not lived up to your expectations, and maybe the Reds didn't overpay because your expectations were way too high?

No. I don't think anything that Stewart has done since then has anything to do with the trade.

I was wrong about what Stewart would be. A lot of people were. Our own scouts/his managers/his coaches too.

Doesn't matter. Scott Rolen was demanding a trade to a midwest team and the Blue Jays said they would make it happen. The Reds were the only team at the time who even had room for a third baseman. We were literally the only suitors for him.

wolfboy
07-31-2012, 04:54 PM
Let's just hope Donnie Joseph doesn't become this decade's BJ Ryan

Ten BJ Ryans wouldn't have cured the Reds' futility during the 2000s, but one Juan Guzman almost got them to the playoffs.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:55 PM
You said he'd win a Cy Young in Toronto. You were wrong.

I was. Doesn't mean we didn't overpay.

jojo
07-31-2012, 04:55 PM
Wow.
You thought that Stewart was our #1 prospect. Obviously the Reds thought differently.

The only guy that ended up having value was EdE as a DH.
Stewart might eventually make something out of himself, but it's not looking good now

You've never said what a "Fair price" for Rolen would've been..

Anyone who thought EE would sign a contract for close to $30M after that trade can call scoreboard IMHO.

vaticanplum
07-31-2012, 04:56 PM
I think that resting Chapman in the short-term is probably an enormous factor in this deal -- maybe the biggest factor. I am ok with that. That is the kind of thing the club is probably keeping a close eye on, the details of which we're not necessarily aware of.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 04:56 PM
That Goldstein quote was not even in the context of the Reds, it was just pure vacuum sealed puffery. He's an outsider free to say what he wants.

Well here is some more then Jonathan Mayo said the exact same thing.

bucksfan2
07-31-2012, 04:57 PM
Let's just hope Donnie Joseph doesn't become this decade's BJ Ryan

What happens if he is? If you run a good minor league organizatoin you should be able to produce minor league arms year in year out.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:58 PM
Wow.
You thought that Stewart was our #1 prospect. Obviously the Reds thought differently.

The only guy that ended up having value was EdE as a DH.
Stewart might eventually make something out of himself, but it's not looking good now

You've never said what a "Fair price" for Rolen would've been..

No, I said Stewart was our #1 pitching prospect. And he was. At the time we hadn't signed Leake or Boxberger and our other pitching prospects were: Travis Wood, Matt Maloney and well, a a few of guys who had some talent but terrible production.

jojo
07-31-2012, 04:58 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120731/SPT04/307310024/Report-Reds-acquire-Broxton?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Reds



This has to violate some kind of child labor law.

But if he was dominican, he'd be like 32 in American years. Unfortunately he was born in Texas so this joke sadly must wither on the vine.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 04:59 PM
No. I don't think anything that Stewart has done since then has anything to do with the trade.

I was wrong about what Stewart would be. A lot of people were. Our own scouts/his managers/his coaches too.

Doesn't matter. Scott Rolen was demanding a trade to a midwest team and the Blue Jays said they would make it happen. The Reds were the only team at the time who even had room for a third baseman. We were literally the only suitors for him.

How can you overpay if you don't believe what you're giving up will ever amount to anything?

The Reds as an organization were not convinced of Stewart. They said it. Other analysts said it. Sure, perhaps a few scouts and a few teammates liked him. Doesn't mean the whole organization shared that sentiment.

Trades are ultimately about what you give to get. Sure, perception and leverage play a role, but if you're going to argue that results don't matter, then you've created a situation where someone can never be wrong.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 04:59 PM
What happens if he is? If you run a good minor league organizatoin you should be able to produce minor league arms year in year out.

And we have. But we decided to trade for an arm instead of just calling up one of the few we had in the minors who were flat out dominating.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 05:00 PM
What happens if he is? If you run a good minor league organizatoin you should be able to produce minor league arms year in year out.

This organization produces decent LH relievers about once every ten yrs: Rob Murphy, BJ Ryan and now Chappy

The Snow Chief
07-31-2012, 05:01 PM
Any word on whether KC picks up any of the salary?

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:02 PM
Trades are ultimately about what you give to get. Sure, perception and leverage play a role, but if you're going to argue that results don't matter, then you've created a situation where someone can never be wrong.

No, you can be wrong. If the Nationals trade Bryce Harper tomorrow for Daniel Corcino, they are wrong. Even if Corcino goes on and wins 150 games for them in his career and Bryce Harper turns into Jeff Francouer. Yes, that was an incredible reach to make my point, but what I am saying is that just because a trade works out doesn't make it a good trade and just because a trade doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad one. It is about the thought process behind them and I just don't see a way where the Reds didn't overpay for Scott Rolen given the only reason that he was available for a trade in the first place was because he was demanding his way out to a team in the Midwest and the Reds were literally the only team who had anything resembling an opening at third base at the time.

westofyou
07-31-2012, 05:03 PM
Scott Rolen introduced a culture to this team that was lacking for most of the decade, it was called being a "baseball player"

It's craft that I believe has rubbed off on some of our Reds on the field today.

It's an intangible, and it's priceless and unmeasured.

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 05:04 PM
He might be an incredibly small upgrade to Ondrusek and a hurt Bray. I would take Simon and Arredondo over him without thinking about it though. JJ hoover for that matter too.

Broxton is a pretty huge upgrade to this year's version of Bray (who has been hurt/useless all year.. not bashing Bray, but he's not added anything to the team).

I really don't think the Reds gave up anything that significant.
So, Joseph might've been a future LH reliever in a couple years.. that's something replacable.

If Broxton can keep throwing groundballs, he'll be useful. He doesn't have to be a K machine if he can keep the walks down. No guarantee Broxton will make an impact, but I like the risk vs reward of this.

I'm glad we didn't empty the farm for Garza + DeJesus as rumored...

traderumor
07-31-2012, 05:05 PM
And we have. But we decided to trade for an arm instead of just calling up one of the few we had in the minors who were flat out dominating.Dominating the minors and dropping a debuting reliever into the middle of a pennant race is not exactly a plug and play situation.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:07 PM
Dominating the minors and dropping a debuting reliever into the middle of a pennant race is not exactly a plug and play situation.

Walking 3.5 per 9 and striking out just 6.3 per 9 and dropping him into late innings in your bullpen isn't exactly what I would call an ideal situation either.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:08 PM
No, you can be wrong. If the Nationals trade Bryce Harper tomorrow for Daniel Corcino, they are wrong. Even if Corcino goes on and wins 150 games for them in his career and Bryce Harper turns into Jeff Francouer. Yes, that was an incredible reach to make my point, but what I am saying is that just because a trade works out doesn't make it a good trade and just because a trade doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad one. It is about the thought process behind them and I just don't see a way where the Reds didn't overpay for Scott Rolen given the only reason that he was available for a trade in the first place was because he was demanding his way out to a team in the Midwest and the Reds were literally the only team who had anything resembling an opening at third base at the time.

You just made my point for me.

If they trade Harper for Corcino and the results subsequently have no impact on whether the deal is "right or wrong," then you just proved my point... you're making it to where someone can argue something is overpaying just because you say so and can never be wrong. That's basically admitting to my point: that you're suggesting a subjective opinion about value at the time of the trade is the only thing that matters and it doesn't matter how many metrics, scouting reports or advanced intuition an organization might have, if you don't like a trade you can call it wrong with no accountability.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:09 PM
I strongly disagree Brutus. I am done with it though. I have explained my beliefs on it far too many times already and they aren't changing. You can disagree with them all you want.

RedsBaron
07-31-2012, 05:10 PM
Scott Rolen introduced a culture to this team that was lacking for most of the decade, it was called being a "baseball player"

It's craft that I believe has rubbed off on some of our Reds on the field today.

It's an intangible, and it's priceless and unmeasured.

Without Scott Rolen the Reds do not win the 2010 NL Central.
I questioned the acquisition of Rolen at the time it was made. I was wrong.

Puffy
07-31-2012, 05:11 PM
Without Scott Rolen the Reds do not win the 2010 NL Central.
I questioned the acquisition of Rolen at the time it was made. I was wrong.

Excuse me Sir - I believe the "I was Wrong" thread is calling you on the phone right now.......

;)

traderumor
07-31-2012, 05:11 PM
Walking 3.5 per 9 and striking out just 6.3 per 9 and dropping him into late innings in your bullpen isn't exactly what I would call an ideal situation either.Good D behind him. Who knows, he may turn out to be a gas can, but I think he comes for a modest cost. It seems you default to any prospect in a deal that has performed above average is too high of an opportunity cost when the Reds deal them.

He is an upgrade to four current guys in what has been a high-performing bullpen. It should bolster the pen.

mdccclxix
07-31-2012, 05:12 PM
Rolen since Votto went down:

.324/.415/.618/1.032

since ASB

.348 /.426/.565/.991

he's not done yet

Team Clark
07-31-2012, 05:12 PM
Scott Rolen introduced a culture to this team that was lacking for most of the decade, it was called being a "baseball player"

It's craft that I believe has rubbed off on some of our Reds on the field today.

It's an intangible, and it's priceless and unmeasured.

Candidate for Post of the Year! :thumbup:

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 05:13 PM
No, I said Stewart was our #1 pitching prospect. And he was. At the time we hadn't signed Leake or Boxberger and our other pitching prospects were: Travis Wood, Matt Maloney and well, a a few of guys who had some talent but terrible production.

ok, you thought he was the #1 pitching prospect. That was unintentional misquote.

IMO, it doesn't matter what you ranked Stewart in the Reds farm system. He hasn't amounted to anything yet, and prospects are dim.
The year he was traded, wasn't he moved to the bullpen by the Reds? Doesn't that kind of indicate they didn't have a lot of faith in him as a starter?
Stewart racked up some gaudy numbers as a minor league reliever and climbed the chain fast.. Seems like a perfect case of selling high.. Gaudy numbers, highly rated yet the Reds so far have correctly guessed that he's not a ML pitcher.

You keep saying that Toronto had no choice to trade Rolen anywhere but Cincy. Well, if Cincy lowballed Toronto.. they simply ask Rolen where his second choice is.. or just keep him for the duration of the contract.
The word was that Dempster would only accept a trade to LA.. well, LA wasn't willing to ante up and the Cubs found another suitor.. Things change.
No reason for Toronto to trade Rolen and take on EdE's contract without getting a decent prospect back.. The Toronto GM seems pretty competent.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:14 PM
Good D behind him. Who knows, he may turn out to be a gas can, but I think he comes for a modest cost. It seems you default to any prospect in a deal that has performed above average is too high of an opportunity cost when the Reds deal them.

He is an upgrade to four current guys in what has been a high-performing bullpen. It should bolster the pen.

I absolutely loved the Mat Latos deal from day 1. Still do. Those guys all performed very well.

I don't mind trading prospects. I just don't like trading them for things we don't need and I don't think that Broxton is something we needed when we had guys like Joseph and Hoover sitting in AAA (more Hoover than Joseph).

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 05:14 PM
Scott Rolen introduced a culture to this team that was lacking for most of the decade, it was called being a "baseball player"

It's craft that I believe has rubbed off on some of our Reds on the field today.

It's an intangible, and it's priceless and unmeasured.

The Reds had been terrible for many years before the trade.That stopped the day it happened.

Superdude
07-31-2012, 05:15 PM
The goods news is that maybe this cuts back the high leverage innings of 5.22xFIP Ondrusek.

757690
07-31-2012, 05:15 PM
Reds wanted a veteran reliever for the playoff run and hopefully the playoffs. Thats why they went with Broxton over Joseph/Hoover.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:16 PM
I strongly disagree Brutus. I am done with it though. I have explained my beliefs on it far too many times already and they aren't changing. You can disagree with them all you want.

Well, Doug, if your position is that a subjective opinion at the time of the trade is right or wrong and results never will matter after the fact, I can honestly say there's nothing left to debate anyhow. You basically have left no wiggle room to criticize.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:16 PM
Well, Doug, if your position is that a subjective opinion at the time of the trade is right or wrong and results never will matter after the fact, I can honestly say there's nothing left to debate anyhow. You basically have left no wiggle room to criticize.

Trades are made with the information you have at the time. If we knew what would happen afterwards no one would ever make a bad or good trade. They would all be perfect trades for both sides. But it doesn't work that way.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:17 PM
Reds wanted a veteran reliever for the playoff run and hopefully the playoffs. Thats why they went with Broxton over Joseph/Hoover.

I agree.

I just don't think they should have. At least over Hoover. Joseph has his own set of walk issues in AAA he needs to work on.

Larkin Fan
07-31-2012, 05:18 PM
Scott Rolen introduced a culture to this team that was lacking for most of the decade, it was called being a "baseball player"

It's craft that I believe has rubbed off on some of our Reds on the field today.

It's an intangible, and it's priceless and unmeasured.

Couldn't agree more. The Reds became a better team that day and many of our players became better players due to his example and leadership. You can't place a value on something like that.

traderumor
07-31-2012, 05:19 PM
I absolutely loved the Mat Latos deal from day 1. Still do. Those guys all performed very well.

I don't mind trading prospects. I just don't like trading them for things we don't need and I don't think that Broxton is something we needed when we had guys like Joseph and Hoover sitting in AAA (more Hoover than Joseph).Hoover scared me when he was in there. Didn't seem to have command. Joseph is unknown to me, to be honest, but he seems to be the key guy in the deal just based on the numbers. It just seems you overestimate the job a young guy will do at the major league level. Its a pretty big bump, esp. in August of a pennant race.

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 05:19 PM
what I am saying is that just because a trade works out doesn't make it a good trade and just because a trade doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad one. .

By that logic, no one ever loses a trade.
In every trade, both GMs are making what they feel is a logical move based on the incomplete info they have.
People use this logic to say that the Reds didn't lose the Josh Hamilton-Volquez trade.. It really makes no sense. The actual results say that the Reds overwhelmingly lost that trade.

Likewise, the actual results say the Reds won the Rolen trade hands down.

Let's say hypothetically that the Reds had 10 pitching prospects that you ranked higher than Zach Stewart at the time.. Would the trade be ok then?
I am asking this because you are clinging to the "#1 pitching prospect" label as a justification.. Seems to me that if Stewart is the best pitching prospect, the Reds farm system is weak, and trades should be explored as a way to inject talent into the organization.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:22 PM
Hoover scared me when he was in there. Didn't seem to have command. Joseph is unknown to me, to be honest, but he seems to be the key guy in the deal just based on the numbers. It just seems you overestimate the job a young guy will do at the major league level. Its a pretty big bump, esp. in August of a pennant race.

JJ Hoover pitched pretty well for the Reds earlier this year. Maybe he scared you. Broxton scares me. I will take the guy who can record his own outs.

jojo
07-31-2012, 05:22 PM
The Reds have designated Andrew Brackman for assignment, Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (on Twitter). In related moves, the Reds acquired Jonathan Broxton, placed Bill Bray on the disabled list, and called up Todd Redmond.

traderumor
07-31-2012, 05:25 PM
JJ Hoover pitched pretty well for the Reds earlier this year. Maybe he scared you. Broxton scares me. I will take the guy who can record his own outs.I guess it was that he looked like a middle reliever to me at this stage of his career. He may develop into more than that, but claiming he is suited for a back-end job today? Not seeing it.

powersackers
07-31-2012, 05:28 PM
Any concern that Broxton pitched in only 6 games the entire month of July.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:30 PM
I guess it was that he looked like a middle reliever to me at this stage of his career. He may develop into more than that, but claiming he is suited for a back-end job today? Not seeing it.

I wouldn't put him at the back end of the bullpen. Of course I wouldn't put Broxton there either and I guess that is the difference. Broxton to me profiles as a guy who should be pitching in the 6th inning. If the best asset you have is that you allow a lot of groundballs, you aren't a back end of the bullpen guy.

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 05:31 PM
Trades are made with the information you have at the time. If we knew what would happen afterwards no one would ever make a bad or good trade. They would all be perfect trades for both sides. But it doesn't work that way.

And Walt's information said that Zack Stewart was not a ML pitcher, so that makes it a good trade. (No way to prove it otherwise, right?).

At what point can you concede that you overrated Zach Stewart? I'm not trying to rub it in your face, but if you still insist that he was an overpay based on how you rated Zach... At what point does actual performance prove that "information at the time" was inaccuate? 2015? 2020?

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:32 PM
And Walt's information said that Zack Stewart was not a ML pitcher, so that makes it a good trade. (No way to prove it otherwise, right?).

At what point can you concede that you overrated Zach Stewart? I'm not trying to rub it in your face, but if you still insist that he was an overpay based on how you rated Zach... At what point does actual performance prove that "information at the time" was inaccuate? 2015? 2020?

I have already said I overrated Stewart. It doesn't matter that my information at the time was inaccurate, it was the information plenty of people in the Reds organization believed as well.

jojo
07-31-2012, 05:33 PM
By that logic, no one ever loses a trade.
In every trade, both GMs are making what they feel is a logical move based on the incomplete info they have.
People use this logic to say that the Reds didn't lose the Josh Hamilton-Volquez trade.. It really makes no sense. The actual results say that the Reds overwhelmingly lost that trade.

Likewise, the actual results say the Reds won the Rolen trade hands down.

The point is that results-based analysis is a flawed approach to evaluating decisions because stuff happens and stuff confuses the issue. In other words, good decisions can turn out poorly. Likewise, bad decisions can turn out spades. But simply viewing a trade through hindsight would lead to a wrong conclusion concerning the decision making process. The proper way to evaluate a trade is by evaluating the decision making process that led to the trade.

I agree with Doug 100% on his stance about evaluating decisions. That said, based upon evaluating what was known at the time, I reached a different conclusion about the trade than he did.

Concerning the Volquez trade, based upon what we knew at the time, I thought both teams were taking a risk to address needs but that the Reds were assuming much greater risk by swapping a position player for an arm. In hindsight it's perfectly obvious that Volquez was enigmatic and Hamilton wasn't going to relapse and his body wasn't going to break down before July and the trade looks like one of the dumber decisions ever. But the reality was that it was a tougher decision than results suggest.

Griffey012
07-31-2012, 05:34 PM
Not too concerned about what we gave up. We have traded a bundle of relief prospects over the last few years and so far none have amounted to anything to sweat about...at all.

Superdude
07-31-2012, 05:34 PM
By that logic, no one ever loses a trade.
In every trade, both GMs are making what they feel is a logical move based on the incomplete info they have.
People use this logic to say that the Reds didn't lose the Josh Hamilton-Volquez trade.. It really makes no sense. The actual results say that the Reds overwhelmingly lost that trade.

Likewise, the actual results say the Reds won the Rolen trade hands down.


I think there's both sides to this. GM's win and lose trades all the time, but that doesn't necessarily reflect the quality of the decision. We lost big on the Hamilton trade, but the risk of him getting caught with drugs doesn't retroactively disappear just because he's stayed clean for five years. Trading him made sense at the time.

But you also have to tip your cap when hidden talent is noticed by scouts or coaches, Jose Bautista for example. Zach Stewart may very well have been a situation where the Reds scouts didn't see the guy amounting to as much as everyone said he would.

757690
07-31-2012, 05:37 PM
I wouldn't put him at the back end of the bullpen. Of course I wouldn't put Broxton there either and I guess that is the difference. Broxton to me profiles as a guy who should be pitching in the 6th inning. If the best asset you have is that you allow a lot of groundballs, you aren't a back end of the bullpen guy.

Lots of great closers weren't high K guys:

Quiz
Sutter
D. Smith
Franco
Shaw

Just off the top of my head.

GB's lead to DP's which are better for a reliever in a rough spot.

Superdude
07-31-2012, 05:38 PM
Lots of great closers weren't high K guys:

Quiz
Sutter
D. Smith
Franco
Shaw

Just off the top of my head.

GB's lead to DP's which are better for a reliever in a rough spot.

GB's also lead to hits and runs. I'd rather my late inning reliever not be in tough spots so much.

westofyou
07-31-2012, 05:40 PM
Lots of great closers weren't high K guys:

Quiz
Sutter
D. Smith
Franco
Shaw

Just off the top of my head.

GB's lead to DP's which are better for a reliever in a rough spot.

Unsure who said this but... a pitcher was once asked what was his best pitch and he replied, "The one that makes the guy ground out to Cox." (Billy Cox 3rd baseman)

757690
07-31-2012, 05:41 PM
GB's also lead to hits and runs. I'd rather my late inning reliever not be in tough spots so much.

Isn't that why you have them, for high leverage spots?

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 05:42 PM
The point is that results-based analysis is a flawed approach to evaluating decisions because stuff happens and stuff confuses the issue. .

Some people called the Hamilton trade a bad one on the day it happened.
Some said the Reds made out like bandits getting Volquez.
Both were using information at the time... Seems like a contradictory way to judge trades, and very subject to people's opinions/prejudicies.

Trades and player projections are an inexact science.. It's not as if we can input information into a computer and get some kind of score to guarantee a good trade (other than a freak injury)..

You probably had the Toronto GM loving Stewart, while the Reds were kind of meh on him.. That's how trades happen. In that case, one person has to be wrong.

In the long haul, the GM's primary job is to increase the talent base of the organization.. Even with some bad luck, most good GMs succeed in doing this. Bad GMs , even when given a lot of money, tend to see the team's win differential, W-L record, etc decline over time.
If you can't judge GMs on results.. I am not sure how you can judge them, because every trade can be rationalized as good "at the time".

DanO thought signing Milton was a good idea at the time. Many on Redszone disagreed, but he thought it was a good move..

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:42 PM
Trades are made with the information you have at the time. If we knew what would happen afterwards no one would ever make a bad or good trade. They would all be perfect trades for both sides. But it doesn't work that way.

Absolutely. But the Reds had a different opinion than you did about Stewart with the information they had at the time of the trade. That information led them to believe Stewart was not the commodity you believed.

Just because you (and I mean this as a general statement applying to anyone, really) might perceive Stewart's value to be one thing, doesn't mean an organization shares the same perception.

Trades are made with the information you have at the time. I wholeheartedly agree. But the information the Reds have and the opinions they believe are not always what you or I perceive. So for anyone to say a trade is wrong based on your perception of value is a fallacy to begin with.

757690
07-31-2012, 05:42 PM
From Sheldon:



Dusty Baker on Broxton:

“He’s a guy that closed in L.A. and was a closer because [Joakim] Soria got injured in Kansas City,” Baker said. “Here’s a guy that can setup. On days Chapman goes two or three days in a row, he can close. It gives us some more strength and a power arm in the bullpen.

westofyou
07-31-2012, 05:42 PM
Any concern that Broxton pitched in only 6 games the entire month of July.

Not when your team was 6-21

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 05:42 PM
Lots of great closers weren't high K guys:

Quiz
Sutter
D. Smith
Franco
Shaw

Just off the top of my head.

GB's lead to DP's which are better for a reliever in a rough spot.

Can't say that I disagree but tell that to the baBIP folks. I guarantee the baBIP number is higher than the BA after strike three

Vottomatic
07-31-2012, 05:43 PM
I wouldn't put him at the back end of the bullpen. Of course I wouldn't put Broxton there either and I guess that is the difference. Broxton to me profiles as a guy who should be pitching in the 6th inning. If the best asset you have is that you allow a lot of groundballs, you aren't a back end of the bullpen guy.

57% (56.6%) groundball rate plays well in GABP. And his HR/9 is tied to his career low in a season mainly because he doesn't give up many flyballs.


This is exactly the kind of reliever you need in GABP.

Caveat Emperor
07-31-2012, 05:44 PM
Indifferent about this move. Doesn't really improve the club tremendously, but they also didn't really give up much in the way of real value.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 05:44 PM
Not when your team was 6-21

Unless there was a physical reason then I'd say it's a positive. We need a well rested guy in that pen

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:45 PM
Oh joy, we might use a guy who walks a bunch of guys and can't strike guys out as a set up man and closer. Watch out NL. Watch. Out.

muddie
07-31-2012, 05:48 PM
Still waiting to see where Joseph ends up in the KC org.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 05:50 PM
Absolutely. But the Reds had a different opinion than you did about Stewart with the information they had at the time of the trade. That information led them to believe Stewart was not the commodity you believed.

Just because you (and I mean this as a general statement applying to anyone, really) might perceive Stewart's value to be one thing, doesn't mean an organization shares the same perception.

Trades are made with the information you have at the time. I wholeheartedly agree. But the information the Reds have and the opinions they believe are not always what you or I perceive. So for anyone to say a trade is wrong based on your perception of value is a fallacy to begin with.

So say we trade Votto for Donnie Joseph. What would your perception of that value be and tell me why you are wrong for having that perception. You perceive what you perceive, wrong or not that is your opinion your entitled to. Why all the hubbub because someone states their opinion? And make no mistake what kicked this thing off was folks overreacting to how someone felt about the deal.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:50 PM
Oh joy, we might use a guy who walks a bunch of guys and can't strike guys out as a set up man and closer. Watch out NL. Watch. Out.

"Walks a bunch of guys."

His walk rate is exactly Major League average for relief pitchers, Doug. Major League average and his walk rate are both 3.53 per nine innings.

And his career K-Rate is in the double digits. Clearly he can strike guys out. Whether he will continue to do so is an unsettled question.

RedlegJake
07-31-2012, 05:51 PM
Any word on whether KC picks up any of the salary?

Hahahahaha! I'm sorry but KC and "picking up part of the salary" is funny...this is the cheapest organization in baseball - I assure you if they had to pick up the salary - even a dime of it - they would not have made the trade! Dick Glass purchasing the Royals was a Carl Lindner "civic duty" type of thing only he is ten times worse than Lindner not understanding what baseball is about or how to run a sports franchise. Not a clue. KC will lose its franchise or Glass will die and the team will get a new owner before they ever become a serious competitor again. Even with the first pick every year forever.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 05:51 PM
I'm not getting into it on here. I've said what I've said and stated my position. Your posts have been acknowledged by others to come across as doing what you're accusing me and others of. Just consider that.


Ok, I apologize in advance to the board, but I have to respond to this.

What "posts"? What "others"? You are all over the place with this.

For the record, I haven't accused anyone of anything.

I don’t agree with the trade. It’s that simple. Doesn’t mean I think I know more than Walt. Doesn’t mean I think the “sky is falling”. Doesn’t mean I’m “hand-wringing” or “freaking out”. I just don’t agree and think we overpaid. No biggie. Also, I think Ondrusek could have been replaced by Hoover and Bray by Joseph. I’ve been beating that drum for a while now. I think that would have been a better alternative than going after Broxton. You don’t agree? Fine. I’m not mocking your opinion. I’m not belittling you with hyperbole.

There’s another thread where we’ve been discussing the future of the board and IMO this is one of the problems with it. We have too many posters that feel they have to moderate threads with what they think is appropriate and what is not appropriate. Do we want groupthink? Do we want an echo where everyone parrots the same thoughts? Is that what you want? Does an initial reaction to a trade - that I’ll admit had a little emotion in it (in real-time, like a game thread) warrant the overly critical response? Can’t you just disagree and keep it from being personal?

So in summary, so what if I don't like the trade? Why the personal shots at people? Why the passive aggressiveness? The ORG is better than that.

Again, I apologize to the board for carrying this any further and it will be the last I post on this subject again.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:52 PM
Why all the hubbub because someone states their opinon?

Can I ask you the same question?

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 05:52 PM
"Walks a bunch of guys."

His walk rate is exactly Major League average for relief pitchers, Doug. Major League average and his walk rate are both 3.53 per nine innings.

And his career K-Rate is in the double digits. Clearly he can strike guys out. Whether he will continue to do so is an unsettled question.

He clearly COULD strike guys out. His strikeout rate is less than half of what it used to be.

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 05:53 PM
Dick Glass
I don't think that's his actually name, but I don't disagree. :lol:

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 05:54 PM
Can I ask you the same question?

Those of you who want answers why some of us think it's an overpay need to answer the question, that is where things kicked off. I left my opinion for future reference and then all of a sudden I/we was freaking out to hear some tell it and basically forcing us to back up our opinion.

jojo
07-31-2012, 05:54 PM
57% (56.6%) groundball rate plays well in GABP. And his HR/9 is tied to his career low in a season mainly because he doesn't give up many flyballs.


This is exactly the kind of reliever you need in GABP.

It's begging the question that he can continue to do those things going forward.

RedlegJake
07-31-2012, 05:55 PM
I don't think that's his actually name, but I don't disagree. :lol:

david, dick - with him it's the same difference

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:56 PM
Ok, I apologize in advance to the board, but I have to respond to this.

What "posts"? What "others"? You are all over the place with this.

For the record, I haven't accused anyone of anything.

I donít agree with the trade. Itís that simple. Doesnít mean I think I know more than Walt. Doesnít mean I think the ďsky is fallingĒ. Doesnít mean Iím ďhand-wringingĒ or ďfreaking outĒ. I just donít agree and think we overpaid. No biggie. Also, I think Ondrusek could have been replaced by Hoover and Bray by Joseph. Iíve been beating that drum for a while now. I think that would have been a better alternative than going after Broxton. You donít agree? Fine. Iím not mocking your opinion. Iím not belittling you with hyperbole.

Thereís another thread where weíve been discussing the future of the board and IMO this is one of the problems with it. We have too many posters that feel they have to moderate threads with what they think is appropriate and what is not appropriate. Do we want groupthink? Do we want an echo where everyone parrots the same thoughts? Is that what you want? Does an initial reaction to a trade - that Iíll admit had a little emotion in it (in real-time, like a game thread) warrant the overly critical response? Canít you just disagree and keep it from being personal?

So in summary, so what if I don't like the trade? Why the personal shots at people? Why the passive aggressiveness? The ORG is better than that.

Again, I apologize to the board for carrying this any further and it will be the last I post on this subject again.

Like I said, if you have a problem, take it up privately and I'll discuss it. This is the second time I've stated that.

Please ask yourself your own questions and take it up with me privately when you have an answer, if you want to discuss it.

redssince75
07-31-2012, 05:58 PM
Somebody works fast on wiki.

Jonathan Roy Broxton[1] (born June 16, 1984) is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds of Major League Baseball.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 05:58 PM
Those of you who want answers why some of us think it's an overpay need to answer the question, that is where things kicked off. I left my opinion for future reference and then all of a sudden I/we was freaking out to hear some tell it and basically forcing us to back up our opinion.

No one is forcing you to do anything. But I honestly don't get what points you're making. This is a place for discussion, after all. If you have an opinion, don't you expect that some will disagree and say as much?

SirFelixCat
07-31-2012, 05:59 PM
My quick opinion: 1) Possibly an overpay, and 2) I don't particularly care. I don't think Joseph is destined to be an elite major-league closer or setup guy, and I can't remember the last time a team seriously regretted trading a 24-year-old minor-league future middle reliever. I'm sure it's happened, but the odds are in the Reds' favor here.

This, this, and this. The "zOMG overpay" is pretty funny, tbh.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 06:00 PM
He clearly COULD strike guys out. His strikeout rate is less than half of what it used to be.

Yes it is. And he's also coming off surgery and many reports have stated his velocity has been slowly returning. You showed yourself that his strikeout rate has gotten better as the year has gone on.

So what's to say he won't wind up pitching better as his arm strength continues to return? After all, he has a track record that is better than most. At one time, he was (arguably) the best reliever in the game. I doubt he'll get back to that point, but if he gets back to even a fraction of what he once was, he'd be quite the asset.

Virginia Beach Reds
07-31-2012, 06:02 PM
I like it. Add depth to the pen and allows Chapman to get some rest. The Reds bot Broxton for two minor league relievers. Remember Zack Cy Stewart, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, etc? Guys are a dime a dozen.

Good post. This board almost went down in flames the day when Cy Young Zach Stewart was traded for Rolen. Jocketty had to do something. Appears the market for a bat was too high. I'm OK with that. Maybe we will still get that bat in Overbay to bolster the bench and fill in at 1st. Strengthening the pen is what you do when you have young, unproven starters and want to lockdown the last 3-4 innings.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 06:03 PM
Like I said, if you have a problem, take it up privately and I'll discuss it. This is the second time I've stated that.

Please ask yourself your own questions and take it up with me privately when you have an answer, if you want to discuss it.

I have nothing to say to you that can't be shared with the board.

I figured this would be your response and am glad the board could see it.


Last post on this I promise.

As for Broxton, his K rate has gone from 13.5 to 10.5 to 7.1 to 6.3. To go along with a 1.50 WHIP the past 111 innings, this is somewhat concerning. Hopefully he gets his act together coming back to the NL.

SidneySlicker
07-31-2012, 06:04 PM
Don't really have a problem with the trade. Fact is despite how the pen has thrown this year
they are relatively untested when it comes to the playoffs and we just added a player who's thrown
in the playoffs in three different seasons. Is broxton a great upgrade statistically over what the Reds have? Maybe not, but as they say you can't buy experience. Or maybe you can.

OldXOhio
07-31-2012, 06:06 PM
nm

RedlegJake
07-31-2012, 06:07 PM
I think its an overpay because I've seen Broxton pitch this season - he isn't that good fellas. Really, his best stuff was in his Dodger years. The old smoking fastball is gone. He throws a "heavy" (sinking) fastball now that does get groundballs, but his control is spotty at best. It's very Arredondo like. That 3.53 average isn't level - like averaged out 3 and half per nine. It's very much 3 or 4 in a row on off nights and then a good night. So you have good Jonathan and bad Jonathan and you never know which one you'll get. Consistency is the big issue. I'd say 2 out of 3 times he'll get the job done easy and then he'll scare the daylights out of you but still get it done and then he'll just barf all over himself the next time. He still does have a flash of that old fire once in a while when he reaches for it but it comes at a price -overthrowing - and he's as likely to get hammered as strike a guy out. He hasn't been horrible at all, just inconsistent enough to be unreliable. Is he getting stronger? Didn't seem so to me but then I don't see him every game either. I watch maybe half as many Royals as Reds games. I don't hate the trade but losing 2 prospects for 2 months of Broxton seems an overpay to me. Now, if he gets a big out or two in the playoffs I'll love it and it will be worth every game Donnie Joseph ever pitches for Kansas City.

jojo
07-31-2012, 06:07 PM
Sorry if this was already discussed, I'm late to the game, but what is the deal with this...

Awesome, Votto can protect Votto! Oh crap. Votto will have to be split up though....

Brutus
07-31-2012, 06:07 PM
I have nothing to say to you that can't be shared with the board.

I figured this would be your response and am glad the board could see it.


Last post on this I promise.

As for Broxton, his K rate has gone from 13.5 to 10.5 to 7.1 to 6.3. To go along with a 1.50 WHIP the past 111 innings, this is somewhat concerning. Hopefully he gets his act together coming back to the NL.

You're trying to make this a personal issue. Why should that be shared with the board? You're glad the board could see that I'm trying to keep from this becoming a public urinating match? That's strange, to say the least.

Anyhow, I guess I'll put the ignore function to use. Have a good day.

SirFelixCat
07-31-2012, 06:09 PM
The goods news is that maybe this cuts back the high leverage innings of 5.22xFIP Ondrusek.

Oof. I had no idea it was that bad. Patrick Bateman, I was wrong. wow.

SidneySlicker
07-31-2012, 06:10 PM
Don't really have a problem with the trade. Fact is despite how the pen has thrown this year they are relatively untested when it comes to the playoffs and we just added a player who's thrown in the playoffs in three different seasons. Is broxton a great upgrade statistically over what the Reds have? Maybe not, but as they say you can't buy experience. Or maybe you can.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 06:11 PM
No one is forcing you to do anything. But I honestly don't get what points you're making. This is a place for discussion, after all. If you have an opinion, don't you expect that some will disagree and say as much?

Feel free to disagree with how I feel. I obviously had a higher grade on these guys than many in the ORG do. Perhaps those who appreciate these guys more are frequent flyers in the Minors, those who don't think much of them don't frequent it. Might explain some things.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 06:13 PM
Why all the fuss about his K rate? After seeing guys like Ondrusek and Arredondo walk over 5 per nine, I want a guy with Brox' stats. Don't you ever watch a game against a weak hitting team like the Pads and tell yourself "the only way we can lose this game is if the bullpen starts walking people?" I think that all the time. I don't care if my set up man strikes out the side. I just don't want free passes

Scrap Irony
07-31-2012, 06:13 PM
DP

Scrap Irony
07-31-2012, 06:13 PM
I strongly disagree Brutus. I am done with it though. I have explained my beliefs on it far too many times already and they aren't changing. You can disagree with them all you want.

Let me explain why many people have a hard time with your logic here, doug.

When Bill DeWitt dealt Frank Robinson, he called Robbie "an old 30" and referenced three years of declining numbers, fewer stolen bases, higher Ks, less walks. He was still very productive, but it looked liked his best days-- those of a 1.000 OPS monster-- were behind him. Most experts agreed that Robinson, though still a very productive player, wasn't what he used to be.

He was offered Dick Baldschun, a 29-year-old relief ace, similar to Ryan Madson or Gene Garber. Most guys around the league liked his ability to eat up innings. He'd already had two seasons above 1.7 WAR in his career, and, though coming off a poor statistical season, was considered among most experts to be one of the better relief pitchers in the game.

Not only did they receive Baldschun, they also grabbed a 21-year-old OF who had just gone .301/ .380/ .523/ .902 in AAA PCL, Dick Simpson. This wasn't the PCL of today's hyper-inflated offensive numbers. Simpson was 50 points ahead of his nearest Seattle Angel teammate. The league average OPS was .705. Simpson, the seventh youngest player in the league, was just behind Lee May on the PCL OPS leaderboard, two of only three guys 23 or under that were there. Simpson was, at the time, one of the top prospects in the game.

And on top of that, the Reds received Milt Pappas. an All-Star pitcher with a three-year WAR average of 3.0 who had just turned 26. By almost all accounts, Pappas was in the process of turning into an ace. His three-year average ERA+ was a 122. He was also a winner, having amassed 110 wins in his nine-year Baltimore career to that point.

The deal for Robinson would be akin, in pure WAR numbers, to dealing Matt Holliday for Matt Cain, Sean Marshall, and Wil Myers.

According to your logic, it's a deal is not only good, but great. After all, many in baseball thought Robinson too high-strung, hypersensitive. A rumor around the league was that he had a major problem with Vada Pinson, another huge star in the Red lineup putting up comparable numbers. (Robinson's 1965 WAR was lower than Pinson's, 6.2 - 6.0.) He was also speaking his mind more and more-- a huge problem in the city of Cincinnati at the time.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2012, 06:14 PM
Broxton is a decent pickup on the cheap. He's not a great closer, but he should provide value, if only by taking some of the burden off Marshall and Chapman. He's been kind of a gas can in KC -- he rarely has a clean, 1-2-3 inning. But as an option in the 7th inning, I think he'll be fine.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 06:19 PM
Feel free to disagree with how I feel. I obviously had a higher grade on these guys than many in the ORG do. Perhaps those who appreciate these guys more are frequent flyers in the Minors, those who don't think much of them don't frequent it. Might explain some things.

I'm sure every poster has his or her reason(s) for not posting in a forum and I imagine no two reasons are completely identical. And in my own case, it's not that I don't follow, it's that I know most of these guys will never cut it at the Major League level, and some of the ones who will, won't ever suit up for the Reds. As such, that's personally why I don't invest a lot of time participating in the discussions down there.

I do think it's way easier to fall in love with prospects because people can deal in ceilings rather than watch where they're actually walking. There is a certain level of imagination allowed when talking about prospects because there's always the notion they'll develop and live up to whatever perception a person has of them. I think that happens a lot when these guys are traded, even though a lot of neutral prospect rankings don't match the same sort of value for the players that is seen on the minor league forum.

To each his own. There's nothing wrong, certainly, with appreciation. But the appreciation can also be a detriment at times if someone invests a lot of hope for a prospect that might not match the actual odds of success.

George Foster
07-31-2012, 06:19 PM
Indifferent about this move. Doesn't really improve the club tremendously, but they also didn't really give up much in the way of real value.


+1...!

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 06:19 PM
Scrap, I am not going to even comment on that. I wasn't around then, I don't know if that is how most of that went down or anything like that. So I can't compare it to my thinking on other deals.

Captain Hook
07-31-2012, 06:27 PM
Let me explain why many people have a hard time with your logic here, doug.

When Bill DeWitt dealt Frank Robinson, he called Robbie "an old 30" and referenced three years of declining numbers, fewer stolen bases, higher Ks, less walks. He was still very productive, but it looked liked his best days-- those of a 1.000 OPS monster-- were behind him. Most experts agreed that Robinson, though still a very productive player, wasn't what he used to be.

He was offered Dick Baldschun, a 29-year-old relief ace, similar to Ryan Madson or Gene Garber. Most guys around the league liked his ability to eat up innings. He'd already had two seasons above 1.7 WAR in his career, and, though coming off a poor statistical season, was considered among most experts to be one of the better relief pitchers in the game.

Not only did they receive Baldschun, they also grabbed a 21-year-old OF who had just gone .301/ .380/ .523/ .902 in AAA PCL, Dick Simpson. This wasn't the PCL of today's hyper-inflated offensive numbers. Simpson was 50 points ahead of his nearest Seattle Angel teammate. The league average OPS was .705. Simpson, the seventh youngest player in the league, was just behind Lee May on the PCL OPS leaderboard, two of only three guys 23 or under that were there. Simpson was, at the time, one of the top prospects in the game.

And on top of that, the Reds received Milt Pappas. an All-Star pitcher with a three-year WAR average of 3.0 who had just turned 26. By almost all accounts, Pappas was in the process of turning into an ace. His three-year average ERA+ was a 122. He was also a winner, having amassed 110 wins in his nine-year Baltimore career to that point.

The deal for Robinson would be akin, in pure WAR numbers, to dealing Matt Holliday for Matt Cain, Sean Marshall, and Wil Myers.

According to your logic, it's a deal is not only good, but great. After all, many in baseball thought Robinson too high-strung, hypersensitive. A rumor around the league was that he had a major problem with Vada Pinson, another huge star in the Red lineup putting up comparable numbers. (Robinson's 1965 WAR was lower than Pinson's, 6.2 - 6.0.) He was also speaking his mind more and more-- a huge problem in the city of Cincinnati at the time.

I hear about this trade all the time but never really knew all the pieces and their value at the time.Thanks for posting it!!!

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 06:28 PM
Why all the fuss about his K rate? After seeing guys like Ondrusek and Arredondo walk over 5 per nine, I want a guy with Brox' stats. Don't you ever watch a game against a weak hitting team like the Pads and tell yourself "the only way we can lose this game is if the bullpen starts walking people?" I think that all the time. I don't care if my set up man strikes out the side. I just don't want free passes

Because pitchers who don't strike guys out tend to give up hits. When you couple that with a guy who isn't exactly able to throw strikes, he is now giving up hits and walks. That isn't good.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 06:35 PM
I'm sure every poster has his or her reason(s) for not posting in a forum and I imagine no two reasons are completely identical. And in my own case, it's not that I don't follow, it's that I know most of these guys will never cut it at the Major League level, and some of the ones who will, won't ever suit up for the Reds. As such, that's personally why I don't invest a lot of time participating in the discussions down there.

I do think it's way easier to fall in love with prospects because people can deal in ceilings rather than watch where they're actually walking. There is a certain level of imagination allowed when talking about prospects because there's always the notion they'll develop and live up to whatever perception a person has of them. I think that happens a lot when these guys are traded, even though a lot of neutral prospect rankings don't match the same sort of value for the players that is seen on the minor league forum.

To each his own. There's nothing wrong, certainly, with appreciation. But the appreciation can also be a detriment at times if someone invests a lot of hope for a prospect that might not match the actual odds of success.

Fine you drew me in. But what about when they do? If you don't grumble now how can you justify grumbling in hindsight?

edabbs44
07-31-2012, 06:36 PM
I think its an overpay because I've seen Broxton pitch this season - he isn't that good fellas. Really, his best stuff was in his Dodger years. The old smoking fastball is gone. He throws a "heavy" (sinking) fastball now that does get groundballs, but his control is spotty at best. It's very Arredondo like. That 3.53 average isn't level - like averaged out 3 and half per nine. It's very much 3 or 4 in a row on off nights and then a good night. So you have good Jonathan and bad Jonathan and you never know which one you'll get. Consistency is the big issue. I'd say 2 out of 3 times he'll get the job done easy and then he'll scare the daylights out of you but still get it done and then he'll just barf all over himself the next time. He still does have a flash of that old fire once in a while when he reaches for it but it comes at a price -overthrowing - and he's as likely to get hammered as strike a guy out. He hasn't been horrible at all, just inconsistent enough to be unreliable. Is he getting stronger? Didn't seem so to me but then I don't see him every game either. I watch maybe half as many Royals as Reds games. I don't hate the trade but losing 2 prospects for 2 months of Broxton seems an overpay to me. Now, if he gets a big out or two in the playoffs I'll love it and it will be worth every game Donnie Joseph ever pitches for Kansas City.

Brox has walked more than 1 in an appearance this season three times and allowed more than one earned run twice. Are you sure you are talking about the same guy? I don't see the same crazy bouts of wildness or "barfing" all over himself that you have seen this season.

Screwball
07-31-2012, 06:40 PM
Do players still receive the same performance boost in switching from the American League to the National League that they used to? I.e., is it reasonable to expect Brox's numbers to improve simply because he's now facing NL lineups rather than superior AL hitting?

BTW, honest questions. I don't have a preconceived answer.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2012, 06:40 PM
I think its an overpay because I've seen Broxton pitch this season - he isn't that good fellas. Really, his best stuff was in his Dodger years. The old smoking fastball is gone. He throws a "heavy" (sinking) fastball now that does get groundballs, but his control is spotty at best. It's very Arredondo like. That 3.53 average isn't level - like averaged out 3 and half per nine. It's very much 3 or 4 in a row on off nights and then a good night. So you have good Jonathan and bad Jonathan and you never know which one you'll get. Consistency is the big issue. I'd say 2 out of 3 times he'll get the job done easy and then he'll scare the daylights out of you but still get it done and then he'll just barf all over himself the next time. He still does have a flash of that old fire once in a while when he reaches for it but it comes at a price -overthrowing - and he's as likely to get hammered as strike a guy out. He hasn't been horrible at all, just inconsistent enough to be unreliable. Is he getting stronger? Didn't seem so to me but then I don't see him every game either. I watch maybe half as many Royals as Reds games. I don't hate the trade but losing 2 prospects for 2 months of Broxton seems an overpay to me. Now, if he gets a big out or two in the playoffs I'll love it and it will be worth every game Donnie Joseph ever pitches for Kansas City.

This description kind of resembles Coco.

edabbs44
07-31-2012, 06:41 PM
I am down with this trade. Upgrading the pen is always welcome and I am done with the days of getting fired up because they dealt a lottery ticket type reliever. This team is different now. This is a move that a winning ball club makes. I know we don't have a lot of experience with these kind of trades, but we should get used to it.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 06:41 PM
Fine you drew me in. But what about when they do? If you don't grumble now how can you justify grumbling in hindsight?

I am just over 30 years old. It took half my life -- from the time I was 15 to the time I was 30 -- to see the Reds back in the playoffs.

Personally, I hate that kind of a drought. So if the Reds are in a position to own the league's best record and the offense is that they keep overpaying to give themselves a shot at a World Series, I personally would rather not grumble at all. I'm not saying there aren't prospects I like, nor have the Reds not parted with a few guys I didn't want to see them part with, but I like the guys they're getting back and as such, they're in a position to make noise in the postseason. Instead of grumbling, I'll find the nearest rooftop to shout, 'hallelujah.'

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 06:43 PM
Do players still receive the same performance boost in switching from the American League to the National League that they used to? I.e., is it reasonable to expect Brox's numbers to improve simply because he's now facing NL lineups rather than superior AL hitting?

BTW, honest questions. I don't have a preconceived answer.

I don't know the answer, but I imagine there should be some slight improvement. There of course is no DH here. As a reliever he will not face the pitcher too often, but generally a DH>Pinch Hitter.

Vottomatic
07-31-2012, 06:44 PM
All this fascination with K's astounds me. Got a name for you: Johnny Cueto

Broxton may not K people like he used to. But he induces groundballs. So does Cueto. Cueto leads the NL in least HR/9 (last time I checked). Broxton doesn't give up HR's much either.

There's more than one way to get an out. After a K, I prefer a groundball.

Sea Ray
07-31-2012, 06:45 PM
Because pitchers who don't strike guys out tend to give up hits. When you couple that with a guy who isn't exactly able to throw strikes, he is now giving up hits and walks. That isn't good.

I understand where you're coming from but I don't see a guy who's "giving up walks". He walked two in the month of July and hasn't walked more than two in any outting this year.

I'm not expecting the pre shoulder woes Brox but I do think he's an upgrade over any RH pitcher we have in our pen now.

That said, I do think we overpaid for him

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 06:46 PM
All this fascination with K's astounds me. Got a name for you: Johnny Cueto

Broxton may not K people like he used to. But he induces groundballs. So does Cueto. Cueto leads the NL in HR/9 (last time I checked). Broxton doesn't give up HR's much either.

There's more than one way to get an out. After a K, I prefer a groundball.

Johnny Cueto walks HALF as many people as Broxton. He also strikes out more guys than Broxton.

Groundballs are good. But they are incredibly inferior in terms of value to a pitcher than walks and strikeouts.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 06:51 PM
I understand where you're coming from but I don't see a guy who's "giving up walks". He walked two in the month of July and hasn't walked more than two in any outting this year.

I'm not expecting the pre shoulder woes Brox but I do think he's an upgrade over any RH pitcher we have in our pen now.

That said, I do think we overpaid for him

He walks 3.5 hitters per 9 innings this year. That isn't really good. It isn't terrible, but it isn't good.

As a reliever, he probably shouldn't have more than 2 walks in any game this year. As for July, sure, he has walked 2. He has also only struck out 2. He has all of 5 innings in July.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2012, 06:52 PM
I am just over 30 years old. It took half my life -- from the time I was 15 to the time I was 30 -- to see the Reds back in the playoffs.

Personally, I hate that kind of a drought. So if the Reds are in a position to own the league's best record and the offense is that they keep overpaying to give themselves a shot at a World Series, I personally would rather not grumble at all. I'm not saying there aren't prospects I like, nor have the Reds not parted with a few guys I didn't want to see them part with, but I like the guys they're getting back and as such, they're in a position to make noise in the postseason. Instead of grumbling, I'll find the nearest rooftop to shout, 'hallelujah.'

I think part of the reason I am less than thrilled about the deal is because we didn't get what we needed yet we dealt off 2 of arguably our top 10 prospects for a guy who has any sizable question marks. Now don't get me wrong I felt like we could use a high leverage RHRP but golly they couldn't even acquire a decent LH bat for the bench? I'm sure Miami would have parted with Gregg Dobbs for a little bit of nothing, they gave up Hanley for less than what we gave for Broxton. Just annoyed that this went down like this.

Let me stress the word annoyed not angry or on the bridge.

Roy Tucker
07-31-2012, 06:54 PM
I like to think I know a lot about baseball, but I've come around to the opinion that the GMs and teams involved know more about the players than I do.

I've got my opinions and all, but talent going out in trades is like thinking about in-the-past girlfriends. Their potential seemed endless at the time, but then when I see them on Facebook now, I think I ended up making the right decision.

I won't say Broxton will be lights-out, but he'll be better than Ondrusek. And if Walt's scouts say he's getting stronger, then I'm willing to see what he's got before I pass judgement.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 06:59 PM
I think part of the reason I am less than thrilled about the deal is because we didn't get what we needed yet we dealt off 2 of arguably our top 10 prospects for a guy who has any sizable question marks. Now don't get me wrong I felt like we could use a high leverage RHRP but golly they couldn't even acquire a decent LH bat for the bench? I'm sure Miami would have parted with Gregg Dobbs for a little bit of nothing, they gave up Hanley for less than what we gave for Broxton. Just annoyed that this went down like this.

I don't think much of Sulbaran, personally. Joseph is very talented but still something of an enigma. That said, I've always felt guys like Joseph and Boxberger are highly replaceable. You can find quality 2-pitch pitchers with good velocity and a plus second pitch to be a highly-effective reliever, so I'll never stress the loss of guys like that.

Heck, look at the Reds' pen this year. Guys like Arredondo, Simon, Hoover all came pretty cheap. Masset was not necessarily a throw-in, but he was a spare part included in a deal for an aging outfielder.

Hanley's deal was a different situation. The Marlins were eager to get rid of him because of his baggage. While the Reds gave up more for Broxton than Hanley, the Cardinals also surrendered one of their best prospects for a lesser reliever than Broxton.

I am disappointed the Reds didn't address the leadoff situation. While I'm not necessarily outright adamant about replacing Stubbs, it's the only sensible place to upgrade and find a high-OBP guy at the top of the order. Span would have made a ton of sense for many different reasons. Nonetheless, what's done is done. I like this better than doing nothing, even if doing nothing wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world.

corkedbat
07-31-2012, 07:03 PM
I'm hoping Broxton slides in as the RH 8th inning guy alongside Marshall from the left side and all the remaining relievers move down a notch. I think that can improve the pen in itself. I think that it also gives Dusty another option when Aroldis has had to go two or three days in a row and there's a save opportunity.

jojo
07-31-2012, 07:03 PM
Do players still receive the same performance boost in switching from the American League to the National League that they used to? I.e., is it reasonable to expect Brox's numbers to improve simply because he's now facing NL lineups rather than superior AL hitting?

BTW, honest questions. I don't have a preconceived answer.

Broxton likely won't get to face many pitchers.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 07:04 PM
I don't think much of Sulbaran, personally. Joseph is very talented but still something of an enigma. That said, I've always felt guys like Joseph and Boxberger are highly replaceable. You can find quality 2-pitch pitchers with good velocity and a plus second pitch to be a highly-effective reliever, so I'll never stress the loss of guys like that.
.

So why trade two guys who fit that profile - Sulbaran (95 MPH FB and a plus curve) and Joseph (93 MPH FB and a plus slider) - for one of those guys? Because he used to be really good? Because he has MLB experience?

corkedbat
07-31-2012, 07:06 PM
I liked Joseph and he might have had a nice future in the Reds pen, but for all we know, the same may be true for Tony Cingrani. The bullpen often has a way of taking care of itself.

RedsBaron
07-31-2012, 07:08 PM
Excuse me Sir - I believe the "I was Wrong" thread is calling you on the phone right now.......

;)

If I start posting all the things I have been wrong about that thread will explode. :laugh:

Screwball
07-31-2012, 07:11 PM
Broxton likely won't get to face many pitchers.

Oh really? Thanks, I hadn't realized that.

My point was that it seems hitters 1-8 are generally better in an AL lineup than its NL counterpart. Maybe that's true, maybe it isn't. I was wondering if anybody had the answer to that, not whether Broxton would be facing pitchers or not.

corkedbat
07-31-2012, 07:11 PM
I liked Joseph and he might have had a nice future in the Reds pen, but for all we know, the same may be true for Tony Cingrani too. The bullpen often has a way of taking care of itself.

Always Red
07-31-2012, 07:12 PM
dougdirt, I give you credit for standing by your locker after the game, and answering all the questions and giving explanations on your thinking.

hat tip to you, sir :beerme:

Like so many others have said, I think Broxton adds some depth to what is fast becoming a shaky 6th and 7th inning bullpen. He's certainly not the pitcher he used to be, at this point. He is recovering from injury, and if Walt's scouts think he has a chance to continue to improve, well I think that's why he is here.

As for Sulbaran and Joseph- I'm sure they are talented pitchers, but minor league relievers really are a dime a dozen. Look who's in the Reds bullpen right now, and where they came from- only Ondrusek and LeCure came up through the system.

You can always find relief pitching- especially long and middle relievers.

This really is a minor move.

pedro
07-31-2012, 07:13 PM
The great run the Reds starters had the last 2 weeks has allowed many of us to forget how shaky the BP seemed in the run up to the AS Game. I think adding depth to the BP is a good thing. Whether or not Broxton is the quality depth we're looking for remains to be seen...

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 07:15 PM
As for Sulbaran and Joseph- I'm sure they are talented pitchers, but minor league relievers really are a dime a dozen. Look who's in the Reds bullpen right now, and where they came from- only Ondrusek and LeCure came up through the system.

You can always find relief pitching- especially long and middle relievers.

This really is a minor move.

At the same time, I see a pitcher who profiles like Broxton as a dime a dozen. And they are. Sure, I guess he could be improving or something, but the numbers haven't really shown that yet.

Vottomatic
07-31-2012, 07:15 PM
Johnny Cueto walks HALF as many people as Broxton. He also strikes out more guys than Broxton.

Groundballs are good. But they are incredibly inferior in terms of value to a pitcher than walks and strikeouts.

Well, actually that's not true. I just happened to already have 2 tabs of baseball -reference.com open and have both of them side by side.

K/9 - 2012
Cueto - 6.8
Broxton - 6.3
Ondrusek - 5.9
Arredondo - 9.9
Chapman - 17.0
Simon - 8.0
Bray - 7.3 (small sample - 2012)
Lecure - 8.9

BB/9 - 2012
Cueto - 2.2
Broxton - 3.5
Ondrusek - 5.0
Arredondo - 5.3
Chapman - 2.5
Bray - 14.5 (small sample)
Lecure - 4.5
Simon - 3.5

On baseball-reference.com, according to his 2012 game log with KC.
Broxton has pitched in 35 games.
He pitched 1 inning in 33 games.
He pitched .2 inning in 1 game and 2 innings in another game.

In 35 games, he walked zero batter in 24 of those games.
In 11 games, he walked 1 batter in 8 of those.
in 3 others, he walked 2 batters. Blew 2 games when he walked 2.
Took 2 losses due to giving up untimely hits but no walks.

I think this idea that he walks everyone is pretty much proven wrong by the fact he didn't issue a walk in 24 of his 35 appearances. And compared to the rest of our bullpen, other than Chapman, he's tied with Simon for the next lowest BB/9 and everyone else is worse.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 07:16 PM
So why trade two guys who fit that profile - Sulbaran (95 MPH FB and a plus curve) and Joseph (93 MPH FB and a plus slider) - for one of those guys? Because he used to be really good? Because he has MLB experience?

Because he's still pretty good. It remains to be seen if he'll be anywhere near as good as he once was, but he's better than Arredondo, Simon and Ondrusek and would help the Reds with high-leverage innings. While he's not throwing, currently, as hard as he once was nor is he missing as many bats, he's helping his cause by throwing a heavy fastball and keeping the ball down. If the velocity continues to improve as reports suggest, then he absolutely will be worth the payment.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 07:17 PM
Brutus, I will take Addedondo and Simon over Broxton. Counting on him to "keep" gaining velocity isn't something I am paying for. Maybe Walt was.

Brutus
07-31-2012, 07:22 PM
Brutus, I will take Addedondo and Simon over Broxton. Counting on him to "keep" gaining velocity isn't something I am paying for. Maybe Walt was.

Even in his only season below 10 K/9, Broxton is still throwing almost a full MPH faster than Simon. Simon's career K/9 is the same as Broxton's 2012. And we all know Broxton has been a better pitcher his entire career than Simon.

Arredondo is certainly missing more bats, but he's also "walking a bunch of guys" to quote you. You complained about Broxton's 3.5 BB/9 but Arredondo is walking 5.27 guys per nine and also giving up considerably more fly balls. Broxton's FIP is actually as good as Simon's right now and a lot better than Arredondo. And that's only assuming Broxton is doing only what he's doing this year and doesn't revert back more closely to his career talent level. I think it's fair to suggest he'll continue to regress a little bit back to his past, even if he'll never be the total dominating force he once was.

Broxton, even now, throws 95. That's faster than every reliever this year the Reds have (sans Superman).

Benihana
07-31-2012, 07:30 PM
Broxton has 13 postseason appearances. How many pitchers on the current Reds staff have anywhere close to that? That's not something to be discounted.

Remember how shocked and unprepared the Reds were last time they made the playoffs?

CrackerJack
07-31-2012, 07:40 PM
If Broxton provides stability the rest of the year in place of Dodo and Ondrusek and Bray, I'm all for it - not sure I care if they gave up DJ and Subaran. It's about realizing you have one of the best teams in baseball right now.

If you can't get more offense, better take care of those 1-2 run leads when your starter is gassed, when this offense gives you its usual 2-4 runs, and that's likely what they're going to get offensively, if that, in the post season, i'm guessing, as well.

I'm hoping guys like DiDi, Hamilton etc.., can provide some bench depth in Sept.

Gallen5862
07-31-2012, 07:43 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton
By Tim Dierkes [July 31 at 2:28pm CST]

Broxton, 28, has bounced back this year to post a 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 innings, although his peripheral stats aren't great with a 6.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He has posted a career-best 56.6% groundball rate, a large part in why he's allowed just one home run. Broxton is throwing 95 miles per hour again and has racked up 23 saves, though I'm guessing he'll join Sean Marshall in setting up Aroldis Chapman. Broxton is on a one-year deal and has $1.4MM remaining in base salary.

Joseph, 24, has a 1.72 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and one home run allowed in 52 1/3 relief innings across Double and Triple-A this year. Baseball America ranked him 27th among Reds prospects prior to the season, suggesting at the time he could become a power reliever in the bigs if able to improve his mechanics.

Sulbaran, 22, has a 4.04 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 1.46 HR/9 in 104 2/3 innings as a starter at Double-A this year. Baseball America ranked him 12th among Reds prospects prior to the season, praising his stuff but expressing concern with his maturity and secondarypitches. They saw his future as a potential No. 3 starter at that time.

Kc61
07-31-2012, 07:45 PM
Broxton has 13 postseason appearances. How many pitchers on the current Reds staff have anywhere close to that? That's not something to be discounted.

Remember how shocked and unprepared the Reds were last time they made the playoffs?

Broxton also has 23 saves. He can handle the ninth inning. Some folks don't believe it is a special skill to pitch the ninth effectively, but I do.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 07:49 PM
Broxton also has 23 saves. He can handle the ninth inning. Some folks don't believe it is a special skill to pitch the ninth effectively, but I do.

I believe there are more guys out there who can handle the 9th, at least mentally, than can't. I think it is more rare to find a good reliever who can't close over a long haul than to find a good reliever who can. Maybe I am crazy, I just don't believe there are 20-30% of relievers out there who are just so much stronger mentally than the other 70-80%.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 07:53 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton
By Tim Dierkes [July 31 at 2:28pm CST]

Broxton, 28, has bounced back this year to post a 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 innings, although his peripheral stats aren't great with a 6.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He has posted a career-best 56.6% groundball rate, a large part in why he's allowed just one home run. Broxton is throwing 95 miles per hour again and has racked up 23 saves, though I'm guessing he'll join Sean Marshall in setting up Aroldis Chapman. Broxton is on a one-year deal and has $1.4MM remaining in base salary.

Joseph, 24, has a 1.72 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and one home run allowed in 52 1/3 relief innings across Double and Triple-A this year. Baseball America ranked him 27th among Reds prospects prior to the season, suggesting at the time he could become a power reliever in the bigs if able to improve his mechanics.

Sulbaran, 22, has a 4.04 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 1.46 HR/9 in 104 2/3 innings as a starter at Double-A this year. Baseball America ranked him 12th among Reds prospects prior to the season, praising his stuff but expressing concern with his maturity and secondarypitches. They saw his future as a potential No. 3 starter at that time.

Tim posted this before BA released updated scouting reports on the two guys (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2012/2613823.html):

Sulbaran isn't a typical 30th-round pick, as he signed for $500,000 out of high school in 2008 and pitched for the Dutch national team at the World Baseball Classic before making his pro debut in 2009. He had some of the best pure stuff in the Reds system, showing a fastball that features good sink at times and runs up to 95 mph at others and flashing a plus curveball and changeup. Sulbaran has some crossfire in his delivery and struggles to maintain the consistency of his pitches and his command. But he's still just 22, and if he figures it all out, he could be a No. 3 starter down the road.

Like the girl with the curl, when Joseph is good, he's been very good. But when he's been bad, he's been very bad. This has been a good year for Joseph, as he rediscovered the feel for his slider by stopping a tendency to fly open too soon in his delivery. He has two plus pitches: a 92-95 mph fastball and a slider. He will likely never have plus command because his delivery features significant effort including a head-whip, but his stuff is good enough that if he has even average control, he should be able to get big league hitters out. At worst Joseph should be a useful lefty reliever, but his stuff is good enough to get righthanders out as well. He profiles as a solid set-up man.

The current reports paint a little different picture than the outdated info Tim posted.

REDREAD
07-31-2012, 08:00 PM
Brutus, I will take Addedondo and Simon over Broxton. Counting on him to "keep" gaining velocity isn't something I am paying for. Maybe Walt was.

Simon might be as good (or better) than Broxton for the rest of the seasion.
That's a solid point.

Arendondo.. I really have no confidence in him. He has the tools and is dominating at time, but not consistent enough to be a reliable set up man.

I guess I feel that even if Simon is slightly better than Broxton, it's always good to add more pitching depth. Bray was headed to the DL. So the question is: Are we better off now with Broxton or Redmond? I think most will agree that Broxton is better.

Sulbran or Joseph might turn out to be quality ML pitchers. However, they aren't ready now. Even if they eventually reach their ceilings (#3 starter and setup man), I guess I really won't be upset.

I see this move as part of the domino effect from losing Masset, Madson, and Bray.. Logan has been scary this year as well.. I'm glad Walt shored up the pen.. Could Broxton end up stinking up the place? Possible, but I think he will contribute.

757690
07-31-2012, 08:00 PM
So why trade two guys who fit that profile - Sulbaran (95 MPH FB and a plus curve) and Joseph (93 MPH FB and a plus slider) - for one of those guys? Because he used to be really good? Because he has MLB experience?

Actually, those are exactly the reasons why the Reds traded for him. They wanted a veteran with experience closing. They have plenty of young, inexperienced pitchers who might be as good as Broxton, but they wanted a someone whose been there before. When trying to win a division and go deep into the playoffs, that's a smart move, IMO.

dougdirt
07-31-2012, 08:07 PM
I will say this.... Bryan Price has sure earned his paycheck this year. Hopefully he keeps that going with Broxton. I just wish that I didn't have to have that thought when acquiring a guy who is supposed to improve our bullpen.

membengal
07-31-2012, 08:09 PM
I'm hoping Broxton slides in as the RH 8th inning guy alongside Marshall from the left side and all the remaining relievers move down a notch. I think that can improve the pen in itself. I think that it also gives Dusty another option when Aroldis has had to go two or three days in a row and there's a save opportunity.

Yup. Don't mind it. Also happen to think that Broxton may be a little more, um, focused, coming from a KC team in its usual state of disrepair, to a team in a pennant chase. And with that alone, I suspect his numbers will tick up. I also think fitting into a pen with Chapman at the back, will also help to reinvigorate him.

Scrap Irony
07-31-2012, 08:12 PM
He's better than Bray, the guy he replaces.

He's better than Ondrusek, the man whose role he takes over.

He's an upgrade.

I wanted more, but Jocketty at least improved the team.

membengal
07-31-2012, 08:13 PM
He's better than Bray, the guy he replaces.

He's better than Ondrusek, the man whose role he takes over.

He's an upgrade.

All this.

jojo
07-31-2012, 08:13 PM
Oh really? Thanks, I hadn't realized that.

My point was that it seems hitters 1-8 are generally better in an AL lineup than its NL counterpart. Maybe that's true, maybe it isn't. I was wondering if anybody had the answer to that, not whether Broxton would be facing pitchers or not.

Again, the difference won't be as great as for a starting pitcher because Broxton won't likely get to face pitchers.

Tom Servo
07-31-2012, 08:15 PM
Somehow, without even throwing a pitch or putting on a Reds jersey yet, I'm starting to come around on Broxton. :thumbup:

RedsManRick
07-31-2012, 08:25 PM
Ten BJ Ryans wouldn't have cured the Reds' futility during the 2000s, but one Juan Guzman almost got them to the playoffs.

If only Broxton were a very good starter instead of a mediocre reliever.