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View Full Version : When do we start talking about re-signing Ludwick



Blitz Dorsey
08-01-2012, 08:36 PM
Right now, I suppose.

:beerme:

This guy was the best bargain signing of the offseason at one-year, $2.5 million. I say he needs a two-year deal in the $11 million range to stay through 2014. Let's do it.

kaldaniels
08-01-2012, 08:39 PM
Gotta figure the mutual option is moot.

Scrap Irony
08-01-2012, 08:39 PM
He'll likely be looking for some serious dough if this continues.

It'll be his last chance at a big payday, and he may look to cash in.

Benihana
08-01-2012, 08:40 PM
If he wants major cash, I'd let him get it somewhere else and trade for Upton or a lefty-hitting LF.

kaldaniels
08-01-2012, 09:14 PM
And Fay just tweeted he doesn't think Ludwick would decline the option.

Oh my.

Tom Servo
08-01-2012, 09:22 PM
And Fay just tweeted he doesn't think Ludwick would decline the option.

Oh my.
I wouldn't be too surprised. Ludwick has said numerous times how happy he is to be playing for the Reds.

GADawg
08-01-2012, 09:36 PM
a month in and I for one was ready to throw him out with the bath water....I really like the guy and his attitude(alot of Jonny Gomes with more production) and I hope he can keep producing but I wouldn't invest a ton in him until I'd exhausted all other options

kaldaniels
08-01-2012, 09:37 PM
I wouldn't be too surprised. Ludwick has said numerous times how happy he is to be playing for the Reds.

I think something could be worked out, but I bet he respectfully declines the option.

Virginia Beach Reds
08-01-2012, 09:39 PM
I just heard him say in an interview that he loves Cincinnati, he grew up pulling for this team. I'm really glad he is playing so well after a rocky start. I always cheer for players who are from the area, and that appear to love the team as much as I do.

camisadelgolf
08-01-2012, 09:53 PM
A lot of people should be eating crow based on some of the things that were said in the thread's about Ludwick. By the way . . .

Bruce's OPS: .829
Ludwick's OPS: .868

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2012, 10:07 PM
I was meh on the signing, but I have to give credit where credit is due.

Great signing by Walt. A+. I'm not sure he could have signed a better FA with the resources he has at his disposal.

camisadelgolf
08-01-2012, 10:29 PM
Trading away Edinson Volquez helped give the Reds the flexibility to make the signing happen.

Brutus
08-01-2012, 10:33 PM
A lot of people should be eating crow based on some of the things that were said in the thread's about Ludwick. By the way . . .

Bruce's OPS: .829
Ludwick's OPS: .868

That's so 6 PM, camisa. He's now up to .884.

Benihana
08-01-2012, 10:51 PM
I was meh on the signing, but I have to give credit where credit is due.

Great signing by Walt. A+. I'm not sure he could have signed a better FA with the resources he has at his disposal.

Agreed. I wanted Beltran but now Im obviously quite happy with Ludwick. Well done Walt

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2012, 10:57 PM
It's not so much that I was against Ludwick, I just didn't think he was a big enough upgrade. But I'm happy to have been proven wrong. I hope he continues hitting like a beast.

Props to RedsManRick though. I remember him being one of the few who was a fan of the Ludwick signing from the beginning.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2012, 11:00 PM
Really liked the signing at the time, but even I'll admit that Ludwick has exceeded my best expectations thus far.

Brutus
08-01-2012, 11:03 PM
I liked the signing as a flier. I thought it could turn out to be a good one. But I was thinking he might win the job and stay above water with a .750-.775 OPS. He's knocking on the door of .900 now. Amazing.

mdccclxix
08-02-2012, 10:29 AM
The switch has flipped on LHP for Ludwick:

.286/.383/.629/1.011

Prior to this he was in the .750 OPS range I believe. He was part of the funky reverse split platoon with Heisey. Turns out the one who figured out LHP while continuing his career rates vs RHP was the one to win the job.

The best thing about Ludwick's ability is he can hit RHP with authority and higher consistency than many/most other players.

Is GABP the Petco Park of washed up sluggers? Can't be too far off. In that sense, perhaps finding a Gomes or Ludwick type isn't too hard. On the other hand, let's not take it for granted, a la Laynce Nix. Ludwick has good defense, good character, and apparently a good bat for GABP.

To answer the thread topic question: I don't resign him during the season. I wait it out and try to keep him on the current deal. If he wants more money, I consider going to 8 per for 2013 and 2014, but I don't know if the money is there for that.

hebroncougar
08-02-2012, 10:35 AM
It was about the day I mentioned on here the Reds should kick him to the curb he started hitting. One of my finer moments. :D That being said, he's hitting very well now, and seems to enjoy playing for the Reds a lot. I'd be all for a 2 year $12-15 million dollar deal. I looked up his contract last night, and he's got a lot of escalator clauses for PA's. You'd think he might gripe about sitting a couple times a week, as it's costing him money. But not a peep.

redsfan30
08-02-2012, 10:37 AM
He has an outside shot at 30 homers and 100 RBI.

I liked the signing at the time but never in my wildest dreams would I have bet he would have a chance at producing like that.

REDREAD
08-02-2012, 10:38 AM
It's gotten to the point that you EXPECT Ludwick to get the RBI every time he comes up with a guy on base. :laugh: Incredible game by him last night.

He might end up leading the team in RBI. (not that RBI is the greatest stat in the world, but that would be a huge surprise/accomplishment)

Chip R
08-02-2012, 10:38 AM
May. ;)

Sea Ray
08-02-2012, 10:51 AM
The big difference in Ludwick now and "then" is that he stopped swinging at balls in the dirt. Early in the year he was swinging at most every breaking ball in the dirt and pitchers rarely had to throw him a strike. I could ditto this with the recent play of Stubbs. I guess in MLB terms he's now "seeing the ball" better

Homer Bailey
08-02-2012, 10:53 AM
I said something along the lines of the fact that his numbers would change in GABP, but he as a player would not change. I also said I did think he would be decent bounce back candidate, but in no way could I have seen this coming. He's been really fun to watch, and a life saver these three weeks with Votto out.

Sea Ray
08-02-2012, 10:56 AM
Interesting that his numbers right now are very similar to Carlos Beltran's. Look it up.

Beltran has him in OPS .891 to .888

cumberlandreds
08-02-2012, 10:58 AM
GABP is a perfect ball park for him to hit. He should sign at somewhat of discount. Atfer playing in Petco for a year I think he knows this is a near perfect place for him and I believe the Reds can get him a very discounted rate.

Kc61
08-02-2012, 11:21 AM
Ludwick is out of the lineup today. He tends to rest one game in each series. I also have a vague memory hearing that Ludwick has had some nagging injuries.

He's not an old player, he doesn't need to take days off so there may be something to the injury thing. Otherwise, it would seem odd to rest him on days like today.

If anyone has more information, please post. Thanks.

redsfan30
08-02-2012, 11:40 AM
On Reds Live last night Dusty said he wants to give him regular rest to make sure he stays fresh.

And if it results in this kind of production, I am all for it.

CySeymour
08-02-2012, 11:43 AM
On Reds Live last night Dusty said he wants to give him regular rest to make sure he stays fresh.

And if it results in this kind of production, I am all for it.

That may be, but the team is without its top two players. Ludwick should not be sitting right now.

Patrick Bateman
08-02-2012, 11:49 AM
Ya I think everyone was wrong about Ludwick to varying degrees.

I always felt that no matter what, he was at best a complimentary player, and that it would be logical to get a LF platoon partner and limit Ludwick's exposure.

At some point he just decided that wasnt necessary.

WVRedsFan
08-02-2012, 11:52 AM
I just heard him say in an interview that he loves Cincinnati, he grew up pulling for this team. I'm really glad he is playing so well after a rocky start. I always cheer for players who are from the area, and that appear to love the team as much as I do.Hmmm. He was born in Florida. He grew up in Las Vegas and lives in Texas.

Regardless, he was the big booper that the lineup needed in the outfield. Whatever he does from now on is gravy. He's worth the option and more if the Reds can afford it.

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 11:58 AM
If you are going to rest him, better today than the Pirates series (I hope he starts all 3 games)

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 11:59 AM
Hmmm. He was born in Florida. He grew up in Las Vegas and lives in Texas.

Regardless, he was the big booper that the lineup needed in the outfield. Whatever he does from now on is gravy. He's worth the option and more if the Reds can afford it.

http://www.foxsportsohio.com/02/15/12/Ludwick-excited-to-play-for-his-favorite/landing_reds.html?blockID=666870

medford
08-02-2012, 12:04 PM
Lets look at this thru another organization's eyes (at least their fans, if not their GM) Ryan Ludwick is a guy who once had a career year, then backed off a bit, went to San Diego and struggled big time, struggled even more in Pittsburgh for half a season then all of a sudden spent a season in the hitting friendly environment known as Great American Ball Park and put up numbers similar to his 1 career year (assuming he keeps this up of course). Oh, and he'll also turn 35 midway thru next season.

Would you as a fan of another team really be excited to have your organization commit money to a guy like that long term?

I love what Ryan has done for this club, I've gone from a hopeful skeptic, to a big time skeptic, back to a hopeful skeptic, to a "hey he may have really turned the corner" to now a "wouldn't it be great if he can keep this up the rest of the way" He's shown since May that what he's doing now isn't a fluke, it wouldn't surprise me to see him continue his power pace the rest of the season and into next year. But if I was a fan of another organization, I'd remain a skeptic if my club was going to spend big money on him next season.

The reds will offer to pick up the option, perhaps even extend him out to a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd season. I could even see Ryan turning down the option for next season in hopes that he could pick up a 2 year deal w/ an offer for a 3rd if the Reds don't offer that dealt his offseason. Its possible he could make more than $5 mil next year w/ another club, but I doubt he'll find any offers for significantly more money than that and anything longer than 2 years w/ an option for a 3rd season this offseason. His age works against him, and his time spent scuffling in San Diego and Pittsburgh work against him in that regard.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Walt offer him a 2 year, $12 mil deal with $5 option for a 3rd season and a similar buyout as he's looking at this offseason. If Walt does, I don't think that's an offer Ryan can afford to turn down, I'd be surprised if he saw anything signicantly better on the open market. If he turns down his option, I think its because the Reds were unwiling to extend his deal beyond next season.

Benihana
08-02-2012, 12:16 PM
Lets look at this thru another organization's eyes (at least their fans, if not their GM) Ryan Ludwick is a guy who once had a career year, then backed off a bit, went to San Diego and struggled big time, struggled even more in Pittsburgh for half a season then all of a sudden spent a season in the hitting friendly environment known as Great American Ball Park and put up numbers similar to his 1 career year (assuming he keeps this up of course). Oh, and he'll also turn 35 midway thru next season.

Would you as a fan of another team really be excited to have your organization commit money to a guy like that long term?

I love what Ryan has done for this club, I've gone from a hopeful skeptic, to a big time skeptic, back to a hopeful skeptic, to a "hey he may have really turned the corner" to now a "wouldn't it be great if he can keep this up the rest of the way" He's shown since May that what he's doing now isn't a fluke, it wouldn't surprise me to see him continue his power pace the rest of the season and into next year. But if I was a fan of another organization, I'd remain a skeptic if my club was going to spend big money on him next season.

The reds will offer to pick up the option, perhaps even extend him out to a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd season. I could even see Ryan turning down the option for next season in hopes that he could pick up a 2 year deal w/ an offer for a 3rd if the Reds don't offer that dealt his offseason. Its possible he could make more than $5 mil next year w/ another club, but I doubt he'll find any offers for significantly more money than that and anything longer than 2 years w/ an option for a 3rd season this offseason. His age works against him, and his time spent scuffling in San Diego and Pittsburgh work against him in that regard.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Walt offer him a 2 year, $12 mil deal with $5 option for a 3rd season and a similar buyout as he's looking at this offseason. If Walt does, I don't think that's an offer Ryan can afford to turn down, I'd be surprised if he saw anything signicantly better on the open market. If he turns down his option, I think its because the Reds were unwiling to extend his deal beyond next season.

Totally agree. If he declines the option, I wouldn't give him more than 2/$10MM. If he turns that down, let him look elsewhere, he may just wind up crawling back to the Reds for even less.

By 2015, hopefully one of Lutz/Y-Rod/Winker/Waldrop/Gelalich will be ready to take over LF duties. We will need to commit that money to re-signing some of the pitchers who will be eligible for FA.

If Ludwick gets more than that on the open market, let him leave and trade for Justin Upton. Hold back Hamilton and Stephenson, and let them choose any three players from the system plus Heisey. Consider adding/subbing Frazier into the deal if H-Rod looks like he can handle 3B full-time and AZ is willing to pay some of Upton's salary. I'm sure they'd like one of Cozart/DiDi given Drew is gone in the offseason.

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 12:21 PM
Totally agree. If he declines the option, I wouldn't give him more than 2/$10MM. If he turns that down, let him look elsewhere, he may just wind up crawling back to the Reds for even less.

By 2015, hopefully one of Lutz/Y-Rod/Winker/Waldrop/Gelalich will be ready to take over LF duties. We will need to commit that money to re-signing some of the pitchers who will be eligible for FA.

If Ludwick gets more than that on the open market, let him leave and trade for Justin Upton. Hold back Hamilton and Stephenson, and let them choose any three players from the system plus Heisey. Consider adding/subbing Frazier into the deal if H-Rod looks like he can handle 3B full-time and AZ is willing to pay some of Upton's salary. I'm sure they'd like one of Cozart/DiDi given Drew is gone in the offseason.

I wouldn't assume it is quite so simple to get Upton.

westofyou
08-02-2012, 12:22 PM
When do "we" start talking about his contract?

When the season is over and all the data is complete and the thrill of the past week has tempered?

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 12:33 PM
When do "we" start talking about his contract?

When the season is over and all the data is complete and the thrill of the past week has tempered?

Sounds like the prudent thing to do, but for all intended purposes I'd wager he's basically an unrestricted FA come seasons end. I wouldn't totally set things on the back burner.

Sea Ray
08-02-2012, 12:34 PM
If you are going to rest him, better today than the Pirates series (I hope he starts all 3 games)

Rest him when he cools off or after Votto or BP come back. Resting him today is nuts

Benihana
08-02-2012, 12:37 PM
I wouldn't assume it is quite so simple to get Upton.

Of course it's not. That's why I'd offer them a couple packages (note that all of this would take place this offseason only if Ludwick signed elsewhere after turning down his option and/or a 2 year $10MM deal):

PACKAGE A- would involve AZ kicking in some cash (maybe ~$5M or so with Upton)
Chris Heisey
Todd Frazier
DiDi Gregorius
Their choice of any prospect in the system not named Hamilton or Stephenson*

PACKAGE B
Chris Heisey
Zack Cozart
Henry Rodriguez
Their choice of any prospect in the system not named Hamilton or Stephenson*

PACKAGE C
Chris Heisey
Homer Bailey or Mike Leake (their choice)
Henry Rodriguez

*Neither prospect package includes 2012 draftees who can't be dealt this offseason.

Only offer Package A if the Reds are confident H-Rod can assume everyday 3B duties.

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 12:39 PM
Rest him when he cools off or after Votto or BP come back. Resting him today is nuts

Hard to have a civil discussion when your point of view is called nuts.

We've got our ace on the mound vs an inferior opponent (as compared to Pitt).

If he needs some rest, I'd rather it be today then when the Reds play the second place Pirates. It could work out, it could not...it's baseball.

I understand the thought that you don't want to cool off a hot bat and want it in today's game, but I will respectfully disagree.

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 12:42 PM
Of course it's not. That's why I'd offer them a couple packages (note that all of this would take place this offseason only if Ludwick signed elsewhere after turning down his option and/or a 2 year $10MM deal):

PACKAGE A- would involve AZ kicking in some cash (maybe ~$5M or so with Upton)
Chris Heisey
Todd Frazier
DiDi Gregorius
Their choice of any prospect in the system not named Hamilton or Stephenson*

PACKAGE B
Chris Heisey
Zack Cozart
Henry Rodriguez
Their choice of any prospect in the system not named Hamilton or Stephenson*

PACKAGE C
Chris Heisey
Homer Bailey or Mike Leake (their choice)
Henry Rodriguez

*Neither prospect package includes 2012 draftees who can't be dealt this offseason.

Only offer Package A if the Reds are confident H-Rod can assume everyday 3B duties.

If you go into the offseason with the plan being to let Ludwick walk and just trading for Upton, you are asking for trouble. Perhaps there is more to your plan than written.

Homer Bailey
08-02-2012, 12:43 PM
Of course it's not. That's why I'd offer them a couple packages (note that all of this would take place this offseason only if Ludwick signed elsewhere after turning down his option and/or a 2 year $10MM deal):

PACKAGE A- would involve AZ kicking in some cash (maybe ~$5M or so with Upton)
Chris Heisey
Todd Frazier
DiDi Gregorius
Their choice of any prospect in the system not named Hamilton or Stephenson*

PACKAGE B
Chris Heisey
Zack Cozart
Henry Rodriguez
Their choice of any prospect in the system not named Hamilton or Stephenson*

PACKAGE C
Chris Heisey
Homer Bailey or Mike Leake (their choice)
Henry Rodriguez

*Neither prospect package includes 2012 draftees who can't be dealt this offseason.

Only offer Package A if the Reds are confident H-Rod can assume everyday 3B duties.

Dialtone...

Sea Ray
08-02-2012, 12:51 PM
Hard to have a civil discussion when your point of view is called nuts.

We've got our ace on the mound vs an inferior opponent (as compared to Pitt).

If he needs some rest, I'd rather it be today then when the Reds play the second place Pirates. It could work out, it could not...it's baseball.

I understand the thought that you don't want to cool off a hot bat and want it in today's game, but I will respectfully disagree.

Don't take "nuts" so personally. I actually had Dusty's opinion in mind. Maybe he'll have a big pinch hit and we'll all be happy tonight!

Benihana
08-02-2012, 01:10 PM
If you go into the offseason with the plan being to let Ludwick walk and just trading for Upton, you are asking for trouble. Perhaps there is more to your plan than written.

See my earlier post.

First choice: They exercise the mutual $5MM option.
Second choice: Offer him a 2 year $10MM deal.
Third choice: Let him walk and trade for Upton.

Benihana
08-02-2012, 01:19 PM
Dialtone...

I don't think so. They want a SS and/or 3B. Frazier is arguably ROY at 3B. Cozart or DiDi gives you one of the better young, major league ready SS in the game. Plus in addition they get a top 100 pitching prospect (Corcino or Cingrani) or another prospect they really like. The third package gives them their #2/3 starter, and rumor has it they were ready to deal Upton for Garza. Bailey has outperformed Garza this year and doesn't have the same salary or current health issues. Plus, of course, there would be other pieces in that deal as well (ie Heisey and H-Rod).

Homer Bailey
08-02-2012, 01:27 PM
I don't think so. They want a SS and/or 3B. Frazier is arguably ROY at 3B. Cozart or DiDi gives you one of the better young, major league ready SS in the game. Plus in addition they get a top 100 pitching prospect (Corcino or Cingrani) or another prospect they really like. The third package gives them their #2 starter, and rumor has it they were ready to deal Upton for Garza. Bailey has outperformed Garza this year and doesn't have the same salary or current health issues.

I don't think an Upton deal gets done without Hamilton. Not to mention, the Reds will need the D'Backs to throw in a decent amount of change to make the dollars even come close to working, which is going to cost more prospects.

Benihana
08-02-2012, 01:36 PM
I don't think an Upton deal gets done without Hamilton. Not to mention, the Reds will need the D'Backs to throw in a decent amount of change to make the dollars even come close to working, which is going to cost more prospects.

Not sure the Reds will need the money if they don't sign Ludwick and they include someone like Bailey, who is due to make a chunk of change next year. Maybe they will, but who knows.

If the D-backs require Hamilton, I probably take a pass- much like the Reds did with Garza and Johnson at the deadline. I doubt a higher rated prospect gets moved for Upton though. It's pretty rare to see a Top 25 prospect get traded these days (see the trading deadline for evidence).

The Rangers weren't trading Profar or Olt. The Dodgers weren't trading Lee. etc.

LoganBuck
08-02-2012, 02:04 PM
Trading away Edinson Volquez helped give the Reds the flexibility to make the signing happen.

Ahhhhhhhhh.....you can't talk about Payflex. That isn't allowed, I am sure of it. Check the unwritten board rules. No mentions of Neftali Perez signings is another.

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 03:12 PM
See my earlier post.

First choice: They exercise the mutual $5MM option.
Second choice: Offer him a 2 year $10MM deal.
Third choice: Let him walk and trade for Upton.

I just think there is a good chance that is an 0 for 3 proposition. Unless you wanted to bump that 10 MM up a bit...is 10 MM your max?

Benihana
08-02-2012, 03:17 PM
I just think there is a good chance that is an 0 for 3 proposition. Unless you wanted to bump that 10 MM up a bit...is 10 MM your max?

For me with Ludwick, yes.

If he could get much more than that from someone else, I'd wish him well. I'd be surprised, but then again, you can find a team to do something stupid every year.

Ludwick clearly has to be in a hitters' park to be effective, and Colorado's OF is full. He's also 34 years old. I love what he's done for the Reds this year, and hope that he would stay (maybe even take less to stay) given his stated affection for the city and the club. But I would not give him more of a commitment than a 2 year, $10MM deal. I think there may be better bargains (including lefthanded options) to be had elsewhere, even if we can't trade for Justin Upton.

medford
08-02-2012, 03:23 PM
as I stated above, I might go 2 years, 12 mil, I think he'd get similar offers, but nothing significantly greater on the FA market.

kaldaniels
08-02-2012, 03:26 PM
as I stated above, I might go 2 years, 12 mil, I think he'd get similar offers, but nothing significantly greater on the FA market.

I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

camisadelgolf
08-02-2012, 03:30 PM
Ahhhhhhhhh.....you can't talk about Payflex. That isn't allowed, I am sure of it. Check the unwritten board rules. No mentions of Neftali Perez signings is another.
http://memecreator.net/the-most-interesting-man-in-the-world/showimage.php/4423/i-don't-always-play-by-the-rules-that-is-all..jpg

Benihana
08-02-2012, 03:33 PM
I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

Remember, you're paying for a 34 year old player who hasn't OPS'd above .800 since 2008.

2 years, $10MM- not a penny more for me. There are better places to commit $21MM, including the current RF on the Diamondbacks and the Yankees.

Sea Ray
08-02-2012, 04:25 PM
I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

He's not even an everyday player yet. He's not worth those kinds of bucks. We can re-visit this at the end of the year but as of right now, you offer him the $5mill option and that's it. He needs the Reds and GABP as much as the Reds need him...maybe more so

Brutus
08-02-2012, 04:30 PM
He's not even an everyday player yet. He's not worth those kinds of bucks. We can re-visit this at the end of the year but as of right now, you offer him the $5mill option and that's it. He needs the Reds and GABP as much as the Reds need him...maybe more so

He's an everyday player in the sense that he's outright won the LF job. He just plays a little less than many starters only because Dusty is committed to keeping him fresh. But he's basically an everyday player in spirit.

Blitz Dorsey
08-03-2012, 10:58 AM
When do "we" start talking about his contract?

When the season is over and all the data is complete and the thrill of the past week has tempered?

Incorrect (at least if this thread is any indication).

RedsManRick
08-03-2012, 11:27 AM
I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

Let's be careful here. When you're a low-mid revenue team, there's almost always more risk in signing a guy who who turns out to not produce up to his contract than there is in losing a guy you could have had at a discount.

With the former, you lose any opportunity to remedy the problem. With the latter, you've missed on "buy low" opportunity -- but there are still others.

If a guy is a unique talent who cannot otherwise be replaced, you take that risk on the multi-year deal. Otherwise, let's err conservative.

jojo
08-03-2012, 11:38 AM
When do you start talking? When the dust settles unless the Reds have some reason to think he's a substantially different player now than he was in the offseason. I doubt they do.

kaldaniels
08-03-2012, 11:39 AM
Let's be careful here. When you're a low-mid revenue team, there's almost always more risk in signing a guy who who turns out to not produce up to his contract than there is in losing a guy you could have had at a discount.

With the former, you lose any opportunity to remedy the problem. With the latter, you've missed on "buy low" opportunity -- but there are still others.

If a guy is a unique talent who cannot otherwise be replaced, you take that risk on the multi-year deal. Otherwise, let's err conservative.

Ideally Ryan accepts the 5 MM option and we all go on from there. But if he finishes this year at his season long pace set so far, that's doubtful.

But for me, it all comes down to what the talent evaluators and medical staff in the club see. If this .850 plus OPS and 25 HR pace (and that's with his lack of playing time) season are for real, I'd be inclined to roll the dice. What other options are there in LF for the next season or two? I don't see much on the horizon.

I agree two years at 14 MM brings risk, but the fact that no better options are
looking this club in the face would allow me to not lose sleep if they made that deal.

oregonred
08-03-2012, 11:39 AM
With the GABP reputation, finding veteran bats with OPS pop like the Ludwick's of the world (Randa's, Hattebergs, etc.) shouldn't really ever be a huge challenge. Ground ball pitchers, Ludwick type stop gaps...

No one could have foreseen a .888 OPS into August (Ryan would be #13 in the NL if qualified - looks to be about 25-30AB's short) and a guy carrying the offense into the stretch run, so we might as well sit back and enjoy this run of good fortune.

Best bet is Walt negotiates a 2 yr/10M type deal in the offseason - assuming the mutual option is not picked up by Ludwick. Don't think Ludwick wants to go anywhere and he's a Walt kind of guy. Upton is a pipe dream, Reds are simply not in a position to pick up another 10M+ contract given the extensions to BP and Votto. Not with Hamilton in the wings and Ludwick as an option through 2013.

kaldaniels
08-03-2012, 11:45 AM
With the GABP reputation, finding veteran bats with OPS pop like the Ludwick's of the world (Randa's, Hattebergs, etc.) shouldn't really ever be a huge challenge. Ground ball pitchers, Ludwick type stop gaps...

No one could have foreseen a .888 OPS into August (Ryan would be #13 in the NL if qualified - looks to be about 25-30AB's short) and a guy carrying the offense into the stretch run, so we might as well sit back and enjoy this run of good fortune.

Best bet is Walt negotiates a 2 yr/10M type deal in the offseason - assuming the mutual option is not picked up by Ludwick. Don't think Ludwick wants to go anywhere and he's a Walt kind of guy. Upton is a pipe dream, Reds are simply not in a position to pick up another 10M+ contract given the extensions to BP and Votto. Not with Hamilton in the wings and Ludwick as an option through 2013.

If there is someone targeted that the Reds can get cheaply and is a fair bet to produce, I agree. However I am perhaps jaded by the fact that they acquired Gomes to do the same thing and they ran him out in LF for so long. It just might be harder to find a replacement for Ludwick than it seems.

You like the 2yr/10M deal. I'd be ok with 2yr/14M. Like I mentioned earlier I don't think any of us are too far off with our numbers.

oregonred
08-03-2012, 11:48 AM
I'd let the season play out and see what happens. Gomes was a fine stop gap for a short period of time.

REDREAD
08-03-2012, 02:46 PM
I agree that Ludwick has some risk, but I think the market has changed quite a bit.

It used to be that above average OF grew on trees.. It was easy to pick up a Michael Tucker, etc..

There seems to be somewhat of a scarcity of decent OF now.. Many good teams were looking for upgrades in that area. I am concerned that if Ludwick walks, finding a decent replacement (without giving up the farm) is going to be difficult.

IMO, it would be worth slightly overpaying Ludwick to avoid trading one of our top 3 prospects to get a replacement. I'm not saying sign him at any price, but it's something to be consider. I'm guessing any quality FA OF are going to be in high demand this winter.

PickOff
08-13-2012, 06:14 PM
I've got to bump this up and Ludwick mad props. I did not expect this type of production. A few NL stats to chew on (minimum of 250 at bats to include Kemp):

- 3rd to Ryan Braun and Kemp in HR per at bat at 14.3. Fielder was tops last year at 15.0 and Pujols the year before at 14.
- 8th in Slugging at .555
- 1st in RBIs per at bat at .209
- 1st in ISO
- 17th in wRC+
- 5th in Clutch (Fangraphs - by the way the Reds are 3rd clutchiest behind the Mets and Pirates - Bruce and Cozart the only negative clutch)
- 8 out of 9 LF with a -9.4 UZR/150 (Heisey at positive 4.8 FYI)

So anyway, color me impressed. Defense is sub par, but if he can put up 70% of these numbers the Reds should definitely re-sign this 34 year old to a 2 year deal. And I never thought I would say that.

Blitz Dorsey
08-13-2012, 06:30 PM
With the GABP reputation, finding veteran bats with OPS pop like the Ludwick's of the world (Randa's, Hattebergs, etc.) shouldn't really ever be a huge challenge. Ground ball pitchers, Ludwick type stop gaps...

No one could have foreseen a .888 OPS into August (Ryan would be #13 in the NL if qualified - looks to be about 25-30AB's short) and a guy carrying the offense into the stretch run, so we might as well sit back and enjoy this run of good fortune.

Best bet is Walt negotiates a 2 yr/10M type deal in the offseason - assuming the mutual option is not picked up by Ludwick. Don't think Ludwick wants to go anywhere and he's a Walt kind of guy. Upton is a pipe dream, Reds are simply not in a position to pick up another 10M+ contract given the extensions to BP and Votto. Not with Hamilton in the wings and Ludwick as an option through 2013.

I agree with all of this except I think it will take a bit more than 2-years/$10 million. I said 2-years/$11 million in the original post, but Ludwick's value has gone up even more since then. I bet it will take at least $6 mil per year to get him to re-sign (2-years/$12 million). And frankly, he'd be worth it. Who else are we going to get? And before we write this season off as "lucky" or "fortunate" let's not forget this is a guy that had an incredible season in St. Louis (and one other really good year). He's no one-hit wonder. And $6 mil per year over 2 years is hardly a big risk. (I know you weren't saying it was; I'm just throwing that out there.)

Vottomatic
08-13-2012, 07:46 PM
Where's the thread titled "When do we start talking about reacquiring Gomes?" :D