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rgslone
08-02-2012, 09:26 AM
Is our starting pitching beginning to tire? No five starters I can remember have pitched this much without interruption. Over their last starts, most of the staff have not pitched up to their norm this year. So, I'm a little worried. My question for all of you is: First, is there any reason for worry on this issue; and second, what can the Reds do to nurse the staff through the entire season at near peak performance (e.g., intermittent rest)?

Captain13
08-02-2012, 09:41 AM
I don't think there is too much to worry about. The rotation went basically two turns where they were all awesome, now we have had a couple of poor starts...it balances out. If the Reds can keep winning at the current pace, they may be able to use a 6th starter in September to give everyone an extra couple of days rest (one or two fewer starts), but if there is a race I believe the Reds MUST use the five best guys available.

Jefferson24
08-02-2012, 09:42 AM
I have convinced myself that it was just a few bad outings. Give everyone another start before we get to concerned. There is a chance they might show some wear by the end of the season though.

We will be looking at some uncharted waters as far as innings go by the end of the season but I don't think the guys have hit that wall yet. Maybe if the lead we have opens up a bit we can start skipping a start for some of them and get a little more rest before the playoffs.

joshua
08-02-2012, 10:01 AM
Its amazing that outside Cueto’s blister, the rotation has been insanely healthy. I’m hoping it has more to do with Price fixing some mechanics than it does luck. But being that healthy could mean a lot of fatigue, and add that up to plenty of complete game and lengthy starts, I'd expect relievers to start coming into games earlier than they normally would. I'm very worried about the rest of this season and especially next season as these inning counts continue to go up.

Projected innings pitched (previous high)

Cueto: 206.3 (174 2008)
Arroyo: 195.3 (240.2 2006)
Latos: 196.3 (194.1 2011)
Bailey: 192.0 (132.0 2011)
Leake: 179.7 (167.2 2011)

Needless to say, I'm very worried about Cueto and Bailey next year.

Biff Pocoroba
08-02-2012, 10:15 AM
It's obviously something to keep an eye on, but at this point, I'm not too alarmed. While our guys have been doing great, Cueto is the only one who can be expected to dominate most every time he takes the mound.

jfleur87
08-02-2012, 10:20 AM
If what has happened the last 3 days, more specifically Monday and Tuesday, happens against the Pirates, I will start to become concerned. But something about this Padre team, and the slew of former Reds, seems to knock around our pitching. Outside of them, I can't remember the rotation really having any issues. Cueto could go a long way in alleviating some concern if he pitches a gem today. This bullpen needs to be fresh going into the Pirates series.

webbbj
08-02-2012, 10:28 AM
Id see how they do one more time around the rotation.

Career highs for IP per starter

Cueto: 185 in 2010. (was probably ready to go to 220+ last year if not for the injury). Not too worried.

Latos: 194 in 2011. (on pace for 198, should be G2G and getting stronger)

Bailey: 131 in 2011, 132 in 2010) (on pace for 204. He concerns me the most. Hes taking a big jump in IP and has never gone a full season. Id watch him carefully\each start)

Leake: 167 in 2011. (on pace for 185. Never been injured and for his career his splits per month have been pretty consistent, except for one outlier in August)

Arroyo: G2G for any # of innings. Hes always been better in the second half than the first half. If that trend continues he will have his best season ever. Jst hope he keeps it up)

So, basically for me Bailey is the guy to really keep an eye on.

Jdattilo
08-02-2012, 11:21 AM
I believe without looking it up that Homer pitched between 30 and 40 innings in the minors in 2011. That should help alleviate some concern.

Trajinous
08-02-2012, 11:30 AM
Question about Bailey's innings, didn't he pitch in the minors and were those innings calculated in the previous year category?

The pitcher's aren't running out of gas. They had an historic month of pitching which looks bad when they pitcher average or have a bad outing.

smixsell
08-02-2012, 11:49 AM
Not too concerned about starters fatigue here. I think we will be fine.

BungleBengals
08-02-2012, 12:33 PM
Agreed. We were spoiled with our starters have complete games before the All star break and after we had them going in to the 7th or 8th on a daily basis. No it seems that if they only make it to the 6th inning, they had a bad outing.

But with the way our bullpen has been pitching, why not save some innings for our starters for the postseason?

jback76
08-02-2012, 12:57 PM
Not too concerned about starters fatigue here. I think we will be fine.

Agree I'm not concerned about fatigue. But I don't know about them being fine they might just come back to pitching like they have in years past.

Maker_84
08-02-2012, 01:01 PM
Not worrying too much now but if they all struggle with another start count me as worried

Moosie52
08-02-2012, 01:15 PM
We will be looking at some uncharted waters as far as innings go by the end of the season but I don't think the guys have hit that wall yet.

Thank you for not saying "unchartered".

smixsell
08-02-2012, 02:05 PM
Agree I'm not concerned about fatigue. But I don't know about them being fine they might just come back to pitching like they have in years past.

Agreed. I meant fine as far as fatigue. I also have concern about a drop in form, and the always present possiblity for injuries.

However, I don't think that they are in too much danger of returning to what they were in years past, as most have made significant and very real changes in their craft (such as Homer being in better shape physically and using his new splitter much more effectively, Johnny's new ball hiding and change up concealing "el Tiante" delivery and new found AWESOME pickoff move, etc.)

They may not be as good as they've been recently for the rest of the season, but I doubt it will be due to overuse, (especially with out now reinforced bullpen) and I REALLY doubt it will be to them regressing to their performance style/level of past seasons.

RedsFanInBama
08-02-2012, 05:10 PM
FWIW, Homer threw 147.2 innings in 2008. Obviously that's been a little while.

Kingspoint
08-02-2012, 05:43 PM
Is our starting pitching beginning to tire? No five starters I can remember have pitched this much without interruption. Over their last starts, most of the staff have not pitched up to their norm this year. So, I'm a little worried. My question for all of you is: First, is there any reason for worry on this issue; and second, what can the Reds do to nurse the staff through the entire season at near peak performance (e.g., intermittent rest)?The Brewers' Staff last season....it's why they won the Division.

Wolf, Gallardo and Markum each had 33 starts.

Greinke and Narveson had 28 starts.

That left seven starts for Estrada.

Those ERA's of the top five, in order, were:

3.69
3.52
3.54
3.83
4.45

Narveson's was 4.08.


As you said, it's just an adjustment period for them.

Keep in mind how young our pitchers are, too. Other than Arroyo, they're all 26 or under. They are going to have bumps.

Kingspoint
08-02-2012, 05:48 PM
This isn't just about the Starters, but the entire pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.259!

That's the entire staff. What we would have killed to have had just two starters with WHIP's that good in the past?

We just aren't putting runners on base. With NL best fielding percentage, we just aren't letting runners score. If you don't get on, and you're not given extra assistance around the bases, it's not physically possible to score. Thus, we've given up only 3.68 runs per game, 2nd only to the Nats' 3.58.

Interestingly, our pitching staff is the 2nd youngest in the NL at 27.1 to the Nats' 27.0.

Kingspoint
08-02-2012, 05:59 PM
When you count innings, you must count all innings pitched...minor league, playoffs, international competition, fall leagues, College, Spring Training, etc....because the REDS do.

rgslone
08-03-2012, 02:34 PM
Well, after reading the posts on here I feel better about the chances of our starters' ability to go all the way. The projected innings, as some have pointed out, don't look to be as much as I was assuming.

Still, I'd sure like to have that guy at AAA who has great stuff (and just lacks a little refinement) who could possible come up for a few starts and be successful for a while (i.e., until major league hitters start figuring out how to capitalize on his deficiencies). Nevertheless, I'm certainly more appreciative now of the trade for Redmond. He looks like the best option in Louisville to serve as a back-up plan - although I guess the Reds may go with LeCure as a starter before Redmond anyway.