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membengal
08-02-2012, 12:50 PM
Best record in baseball as of the moment. Bottom line, to date, this season has been awesome.

Having said that, what are/remain your causes of concern as the last two months begin to unfold?

Here's mine...as freaky good as the starting pitching has been, I worry/am concerned about what will happen as Cueto/Bailey/Leake in particular explode past career innings highs over the next month or so. Will they be as effective as they have been the first four months? Or will some fatigue/wear set in? If it does, we really don't have much to draw on to backfill.

Having said that, I thought that might be where the Broxton pick-up was shrewd. It moves everyone back an inning, and REALLY, in theory, can help to shorten games and perhaps give some help should some of the staring pitcher arms tire.

Thoughts on that? Other concerns anyone might have?

jhu1321
08-02-2012, 12:53 PM
1. Starters wearing down.
2. DatDude having lingering injuries.

Benihana
08-02-2012, 12:55 PM
SP is the big concern. Ironically, the only guy I am very confident can maintain or improve on his season-to-date performance is Latos.

I also worry about what may happen if Ludwick and Frazier come back to Earth.

membengal
08-02-2012, 12:57 PM
SP is the big concern. Ironically, the only guy I am very confident can maintain or improve on his season-to-date performance is Latos.

I also worry about what may happen if Ludwick and Frazier come back to Earth.

On that last point, I am hoping Votto comes back in full Votto mode, and that would help cover any regression from those two.

Vottomatic
08-02-2012, 01:00 PM
I was thinking about the starting pitching, and I thought maybe they should bring Redmond up to spot start for each of Leake, Bailey, and Cueto. Give each of them a start off and sub in Redmond. Maybe do it a couple of times.

BUT.......if Redmond stinks or struggles, nix the whole idea. LOL.

wolfboy
08-02-2012, 01:20 PM
A few quick thoughts -

1. Regression - bullpen edition: Arredondo, Ondrusek, Simon, and Broxton have all outperformed their FIP by a decent amount. I hope it keeps up, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Fortunately, we have some wiggle room with the guys we have in AAA.

2. Regression - rotation edition: Not as big of a concern here, but is Homer due for a correction? What about Cueto?

3. Regression - position players: Is Ryan Ludwick for real? What about Todd Frazier? When Votto returns, is his .398 BABIP sustainable?

4. Injuries: When is this not a concern? High inning totals for the starters, questions about whether Votto and Phillips will be at 100%, whether Masset returns in full form, and the ever looming threat of injuries we haven't seen.

5. The back end of the bullpen: I worry about Dusty's use of the back of the bullpen. Broxton < Chapman. Broxton < Marshall. Marshall ≠ LOOGY. Marshall ≠ unreliable in high leverage situations.

6. The bench: I feel safe in saying that Xavier Paul's BABIP is not sustainable. The bench may be our biggest weakness.

7. The Cardinals i.e., Pythagoras Smilin' 2012 edition: you can't count them out just yet.

8. The Pirates: For God's sake just melt down already!!

lidspinner
08-02-2012, 01:44 PM
starting pitching is my only area of concern as far as fatigue goes.....I have almost never seen a pitcher go through an entire season and NOT experience a dead arm period towards the end of the season....it might only last for a few starts but it still usually happens....I just hope that it doesnt happen in the midst of our run towards the Central....A little cushion would be nice come end of the August so our starters can skip a few starts here and there.....I think our Bull Pen will be fine....If Nick comes back and takes a few weeks to get up to speed then he will give some guys a much needed rest, not to mention having Broxton back there will help keep everyone fresh and should help to push Marshall, Arredondo and Logan pitch a little harder for their spots...

If our starters can give us 5 good innings then I see no reason that our pen cannot keep us in games for 3-4 innings for 4-5 games per week....with that said, that will also help keep our starters a little rested....

my next area of concern is our lack of a true leadoff hitter....I am concerned that once Stubbs goes cold again and Cozart continues his normal pace, I think our top will be below average once the playoffs get here....we cannot rely on the middle and bottom each and every night...we need the top to get on base any which way they can....then let he middle do their job....this is a big area of concern and an area where we MUST look at in the winter.

outside of those 2 things, which is 2 major areas, but outside of them I think we stand a great chance at making a solid run at a Pennant.....I just do not see many other teams that I dont think we cant beat....I also dont see any teams that I know we can beat like last year where I knew we could not beat the Phils, this year I think we can go toe to toe with any team in the National league, including the Nationals sans Strasburgh....looks like he will be out come playoff time so we look like we should be in great shape as long as we can find a way to beat those pesky Pirates.

cincrazy
08-02-2012, 01:55 PM
A few quick thoughts -

1. Regression - bullpen edition: Arredondo, Ondrusek, Simon, and Broxton have all outperformed their FIP by a decent amount. I hope it keeps up, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Fortunately, we have some wiggle room with the guys we have in AAA.

2. Regression - rotation edition: Not as big of a concern here, but is Homer due for a correction? What about Cueto?

3. Regression - position players: Is Ryan Ludwick for real? What about Todd Frazier? When Votto returns, is his .398 BABIP sustainable?

4. Injuries: When is this not a concern? High inning totals for the starters, questions about whether Votto and Phillips will be at 100%, whether Masset returns in full form, and the ever looming threat of injuries we haven't seen.

5. The back end of the bullpen: I worry about Dusty's use of the back of the bullpen. Broxton < Chapman. Broxton < Marshall. Marshall ≠ LOOGY. Marshall ≠ unreliable in high leverage situations.

6. The bench: I feel safe in saying that Xavier Paul's BABIP is not sustainable. The bench may be our biggest weakness.

7. The Cardinals i.e., Pythagoras Smilin' 2012 edition: you can't count them out just yet.8. The Pirates: For God's sake just melt down already!!



Check out the Cards remaining schedule compared to our's. I agree, we can't count them out yet. But they're going to need to play near-perfect baseball to catch us.

wolfboy
08-02-2012, 02:00 PM
Check out the Cards remaining schedule compared to our's. I agree, we can't count them out yet. But they're going to need to play near-perfect baseball to catch us.

I agree. It would take an improbable run, and (hopefully) they used that up last year.

MWM
08-02-2012, 02:02 PM
Now that they didn't trade away Billy Hamilton at the deadline, my biggest concern is Votto coming back before he's fully ready to handle the grind. I guess I'm just one of those that doesn't trust the Reds' medical staff. If the Reds lose a few games with Phillips out, I fear he himself would push to come back before he should. They've won without him, but let's be honest, they have no chance to maintain close to this pace without a healthy Votto.

medford
08-02-2012, 02:03 PM
the Reds have an off day on the 13th of August. They then play 6 games in 5 days due to a saturday day-night double header vs the Cubbies. They then play sunday vs the cubbies then 4 straight at philly, a weekend somewhere and perhaps 1 more series b/f their next off day.

Sounds like a perfect time to send Logan down (does he still have options left?) for 10 days, get Redmond a start vs the the cubbies, then got to a 6 man staff if the bullpen holds up over this stretch until Logan's 10 days have passed and he can be recalled.

Scrap Irony
08-02-2012, 02:11 PM
1. Starting pitching.
Over the past three games, it's been bad, though the team has won two of those games. Most are in uncharted waters, in terms of IP. Fortunately, I look for Cueto to remain pretty much where he's been for almost two years now and for Latos to blossom into that TOR guy the Reds traded for. That should at least keep the Reds above water heading into the home stretch.

2. A sudden bout of wildness from Aroldis Chapman may doom the season. And, make no mistake, he could very well get hit with the control yips.

3. Ludwick and Frazier returning to earth before Votto and Phillips return from injury. Rolen discovering he really can't cheat Father Time.

4. Bruce continuing to struggle for the rest of the year. His defense, once a staple, has become poor. So has his base running. He now offers very little when he's not hitting. When he's on, however, he's an MVP. Sigh.

5. Leadoff/ CF-- I simply don't trust Stubbs to do anything. Over the season, he's been a serious drag on the team. Hopefully, he's figured something out.

HokieRed
08-02-2012, 02:11 PM
Number of innings on the starters' arms, as I've been saying for several weeks. I'd like to have seen a starter acquired, and I suppose we got something of one in Redmond, but I do like Jocketty's backup approach--getting Broxton, cutting down even a good start to 6 innings, leaving still a combination of decent relief arms (Arredondo, LeCure, Simon, Ondrusek) to work even if the starter goes no more than 4 or 5.

Benihana
08-02-2012, 03:22 PM
Not to be a downer, but look at the last four games:

Leake can't make it out of the 2nd inning.
Bailey blows a 6 run lead in the 3rd inning.
Arroyo was getting lit up last night, and now Cueto gives up 4 ER in his first 4 IP.

And this is all to a very light hitting San Diego lineup. Color me very concerned about our SP holding up.

Tom Servo
08-02-2012, 03:33 PM
Not to be a downer, but look at the last four games:

Leake can't make it out of the 2nd inning.
Bailey blows a 6 run lead in the 3rd inning.
Arroyo was getting lit up last night, and now Cueto gives up 4 ER in his first 4 IP.

And this is all to a very light hitting San Diego lineup. Color me very concerned about our SP holding up.
I don't disagree with your point about the SP, but I don't know that I'd calling San Diego's lineup "very light hitting". Look at their numbers post All-Star break.

http://i.imgur.com/QuLBb.png

There's certainly some explosiveness there.

Benihana
08-02-2012, 03:38 PM
I don't disagree with your point about the SP, but I don't know that I'd calling San Diego's lineup "very light hitting". Look at their numbers post All-Star break.

http://i.imgur.com/QuLBb.png

There's certainly some explosiveness there.

Maybe, but look at the players. Headley, Quentin and maybe Alonso are the only (healthy) players that can really bring thunder. Everyone else is sort of meh.

traderumor
08-02-2012, 03:41 PM
I don't disagree with your point about the SP, but I don't know that I'd calling San Diego's lineup "very light hitting". Look at their numbers post All-Star break.

http://i.imgur.com/QuLBb.png

There's certainly some explosiveness there.In twitter language, their offense is trending, and being in GABP for a 4 game set has certainly revealed one area that they are developing fast---or in a hot streak. They are a good example of "it all comes down to when you play a team." If we hold on today, it is a testament to our offense and the bullpen to take 3 of 4 in this set.

_Sir_Charles_
08-02-2012, 06:51 PM
In twitter language, their offense is trending, and being in GABP for a 4 game set has certainly revealed one area that they are developing fast---or in a hot streak. They are a good example of "it all comes down to when you play a team." If we hold on today, it is a testament to our offense and the bullpen to take 3 of 4 in this set.

Yep. Overall, the Padres are pretty "meh"....but this was their first winning month in a year or so IIRC. They were playing VERY well. It kinda coincided with the callup of Grandal. He came up and the offense started clicking.

traderumor
08-02-2012, 06:53 PM
Yep. Overall, the Padres are pretty "meh"....but this was their first winning month in a year or so IIRC. They were playing VERY well. It kinda coincided with the callup of Grandal. He came up and the offense started clicking.
But now they don't have any pitching...winning at this game is hard.

PuffyPig
08-02-2012, 07:20 PM
I don't disagree with your point about the SP, but I don't know that I'd calling San Diego's lineup "very light hitting". Look at their numbers post All-Star break.

http://i.imgur.com/QuLBb.png

There's certainly some explosiveness there.

Since the all star game, we are 2nd in RS, the Pads are 4th. The Cards are 5th. This (conveniently) includes todays games.

I didn't do a RS per game because it didn't suit my puposes.