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View Full Version : Aroldis or Kimbrel?



Brutus
08-02-2012, 05:35 PM
Probably, without hesitation, the two most dominant relievers in the game today. So if you tried removing any bias from the equation, as a neutral GM, who would you rather have? Age and contract status can obviously be taken into consideration.


Player IP ERA WHIP K K/9 BB BB/9 HR HR/9 GB/FB OPS FIP

Kimbrel 40.0 1.35 0.65 67 15.08 10 2.25 2 0.45 1.76 0.350 1.26
Chapman 51.2 1.39 0.72 96 16.72 14 2.44 3 0.52 0.97 0.427 1.11


I think I'd take Aroldis, but man is it ever close.

Homer Bailey
08-02-2012, 05:43 PM
Those OPS numbers literally made me laugh out loud.

edabbs44
08-02-2012, 05:54 PM
Aroldis in a landslide due to the starter potential.

Brutus
08-02-2012, 06:02 PM
Those OPS numbers literally made me laugh out loud.

They are quite obscene.

RedlegJake
08-02-2012, 06:37 PM
Aroldis in a landslide due to the starter potential.

Me too.

dougdirt
08-02-2012, 06:43 PM
For solely as a closer, I would take Kimbrel, barely. Given that the two are both insanely dominant, give me the guy who gets a lot more groundballs when guys do manage to put the ball in play.

Overall though, Chapman still could wind up starting at some point in the future and that makes him incredibly more valuable.

Vottomatic
08-02-2012, 07:56 PM
I don't know why, but your opening post is stretched far across my screen in weird fashion.

dougdirt
08-02-2012, 08:33 PM
I don't know why, but your opening post is stretched far across my screen in weird fashion.

When you use the code tag, it doesn't abide by the normal "return to the next line" thing. It just stretches and stretches unless you modify it yourself.

buckeyenut
08-02-2012, 09:04 PM
Only thing I would want to do is look at Kimbrel's distribution. Aroldis gave up everything for the year in the span of 5 games or something like that. I think that would lean me slightly towards him, but man, either one is great to have.

Superdude
08-02-2012, 09:40 PM
The batter can guess correctly on a fastball nine times out of ten against Chapman and he's still struck out a historic, unfathomable amount. For that, he gets my vote.

dougdirt
08-02-2012, 10:27 PM
The batter can guess correctly on a fastball nine times out of ten against Chapman and he's still struck out a historic, unfathomable amount. For that, he gets my vote.

Craig Kimbrel has a more valuable fastball....

Here is the reliever Top 10 in fastball by value per 100 fastballs thrown:



Name wFB/C
Craig Kimbrel 2.64
Robbie Ross 2.52
Pedro Strop 2.52
Ernesto Frieri 2.14
Darren Oliver 2.14
Sean Burnett 2.11
Mark Lowe 2.00
Aroldis Chapman 1.97
Rafael Soriano 1.95
Brian Duensing 1.91

Brutus
08-02-2012, 10:35 PM
Craig Kimbrel has a more valuable fastball....

Here is the reliever Top 10 in fastball by value per 100 fastballs thrown:



Name wFB/C
Craig Kimbrel 2.64
Robbie Ross 2.52
Pedro Strop 2.52
Ernesto Frieri 2.14
Darren Oliver 2.14
Sean Burnett 2.11
Mark Lowe 2.00
Aroldis Chapman 1.97
Rafael Soriano 1.95
Brian Duensing 1.91


I think that is, in a way, part of superdude's point. After all, the effectiveness of Chapman's fastball is going to be somewhat subdued simply because rarely will a hitter ever be taken by surprise when thrown a fastball. As he said, nine times out of 10, you can correctly guess when it's coming. That is going to naturally make it less of an effective pitch to some degree.

If they started utilizing a third pitch for Chapman and/or better mixed up his pitches, I imagine you'd see his fastball second-to-none on that list.

Superdude
08-03-2012, 12:14 AM
Craig Kimbrel has a more valuable fastball....

Here is the reliever Top 10 in fastball by value per 100 fastballs thrown:



Name wFB/C
Craig Kimbrel 2.64
Robbie Ross 2.52
Pedro Strop 2.52
Ernesto Frieri 2.14
Darren Oliver 2.14
Sean Burnett 2.11
Mark Lowe 2.00
Aroldis Chapman 1.97
Rafael Soriano 1.95
Brian Duensing 1.91


So Kimbrel has a definitively better fastball and breaking pitch, but has inferior numbers? These newfangled statistics just never add up to me.

dougdirt
08-03-2012, 12:43 AM
So Kimbrel has a definitively better fastball and breaking pitch, but has inferior numbers? These newfangled statistics just never add up to me.

Kimbrel has a better ERA, better WHIP and a better walk rate. Lower strikeout rate, higher groundball rate, lower HR rate.

cincrazy
08-03-2012, 12:52 AM
I don't think that Kimbrel has hit a slump like Chapman did in June. But when both are at their absolute best, as dominant as both of them are... I would give Chapman the edge. When he's on top of his game, he's as unhittable as anyone I've ever seen.

cincrazy
08-03-2012, 12:53 AM
With that being said... he's more prone to falling in love with his fastball, and occasional bursts of wildness.

Superdude
08-03-2012, 01:31 AM
Kimbrel has a better ERA, better WHIP and a better walk rate. Lower strikeout rate, higher groundball rate, lower HR rate.

We can split hairs about who's a better pitcher, but at the very least, Chapman has been Kimbrel's equal this season. What does it mean to say Kimbrel's pitches are more valuable if his overall numbers don't indicate that? Doesn't that call into question the validity of the stat?

757690
08-03-2012, 01:42 AM
Kimbrel's a better, more polished pitcher at this stage. But that speaks volumes about Chapman's talent. He's still learning how to pitch, and is neck and neck with the best reliever in baseball. It's hard to imagine how good he could be once he becomes as polished as Kimbrel.

dougdirt
08-03-2012, 08:09 AM
We can split hairs about who's a better pitcher, but at the very least, Chapman has been Kimbrel's equal this season. What does it mean to say Kimbrel's pitches are more valuable if his overall numbers don't indicate that? Doesn't that call into question the validity of the stat?

It is all theoretical. The pitch values are based on linear weights. They aren't perfect. Right now, using the linear weights model, there are three relievers who have clearly separated themselves from the group in terms of their pitches values:
Craig Kimbrell
Fernando Rodney
Aroldis Chapman

They are between 17.6 and 17.9. The two guys that round out the Top 5 re at 12.0 and 13.6.

I would say that this model is doing a pretty good job.

fearofpopvol1
08-03-2012, 02:33 PM
Kimbrel has a better ERA, better WHIP and a better walk rate. Lower strikeout rate, higher groundball rate, lower HR rate.

And a lower WAR number. Over a half win lower.

dougdirt
08-03-2012, 02:40 PM
And a lower WAR number. Over a half win lower.

I imagine Chapman having 25% more innings has to do with that.

reds44
08-03-2012, 02:44 PM
Chapman has a 2.4 BB/9 this year. The only reliever lower than that is Marshall. The only starters lower than that are Cueto and Leake. He doesn't have bursts of wildness, at least not this year.

cincrazy
08-03-2012, 04:00 PM
Chapman has a 2.4 BB/9 this year. The only reliever lower than that is Marshall. The only starters lower than that are Cueto and Leake. He doesn't have bursts of wildness, at least not this year.

I wasn't talking about his performance as a whole this year. Clearly overall his walk rate has been great. But when he started to struggle in June he really had trouble locating his slider, and even his fastball, and when he was throwing them for strikes they were right down the can. As I said, when he's on (and he has been for most of this year) he's absolutely unhittable.

Superdude
08-03-2012, 04:16 PM
It is all theoretical. The pitch values are based on linear weights. They aren't perfect. Right now, using the linear weights model, there are three relievers who have clearly separated themselves from the group in terms of their pitches values:
Craig Kimbrell
Fernando Rodney
Aroldis Chapman

They are between 17.6 and 17.9. The two guys that round out the Top 5 re at 12.0 and 13.6.

I would say that this model is doing a pretty good job.

I'm not overly familiar with this stat, so I'm just curious. Chapman has a wFB/C of 2.03 and a wSL/C of 1.91. Kimbrel has a wFB/C of 2.64 and a wCB/C of 3.35. I'm assuming those are significant differences considering the stat falls within a very small range. Doesn't it seem odd these two pitchers have essentially identical numbers despite the disparity in pitch value? Does the stat require a larger sample? Should we expect regression out of Chapman?

fearofpopvol1
08-03-2012, 10:45 PM
I imagine Chapman having 25% more innings has to do with that.

No guarantees that Kimbrel's WAR will go up more than half a win once he catches up.

Vottomatic
08-03-2012, 10:53 PM
Chapman now has 98 K's in 52.2 IP.