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View Full Version : Should the Reds look to extend Chapman after this season?



BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2012, 08:08 AM
His contract details according to Cotts:


6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
2.034 yrs service after this year (if he stays on 24-man roster entire year)


-$16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20).

-10: $1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M, 13:$2M, 14:$3M, 15:$5M player option

-Chapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series.

-If Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible (he will not qualify).

-If Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible (he will qualify).

So through 2012, of the $30.25M he signed for, he will have been paid out $4M in salary (10: $1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M), and $6M in signing bonuses ($1.5M at signing and $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010, 2011, 2012) Ė totaling $10M.

The Reds still owe him $15.25M in guaranteed money ($10.25M in bonuses from 2013-2020) and $5M for salaries in 2013 and 2014 ($2M, $3M). The Reds only really have him locked up for two more years as he has a player option in 2015 ($5M). If he plays through 2015, the Reds still owe him $20.25M plus the $3M bonus for becoming arb-eligble after 2013.

So the question is, should the Reds look to extend him after 2012?

Letís assume at the end of 2012, he maintains his dominance as a closer and all we know is he has potential to be a starter or continue being a dominant closer. With all that said, since we really only control him through 2014 (two more years) would it make sense to extend him, say through 2017, giving us a guarantee of keeping him at least three more years? And what would it take?







http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=109

Vottomatic
08-03-2012, 08:13 AM
No. I'd wait until the end of 2014. There's always a chance he blows his arm/shoulder/etc. out.

kaldaniels
08-03-2012, 08:14 AM
His contract confuses me, but I thought we control him longer than thru 2014?

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2012, 08:16 AM
I did too, Kal, and then I saw that 2015 "player option" on Cotts.

mdccclxix
08-03-2012, 08:17 AM
What does arbitration mean in this case? It's not the same as arb 1, arb 2 and arb 3 that most players go through is it?

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2012, 08:19 AM
If this were a regular situation, he wouldn't be arb-eligible until 2014 (yr 1) then 2015 (yr 2) and then 2016 (yr 3) and then be a FA in 2017.

However, the 2015 player option tells me otherwise. Maybe I have it wrong.

redsmetz
08-03-2012, 08:20 AM
What does arbitration mean in this case? It's not the same as arb 1, arb 2 and arb 3 that most players go through is it?

It's an unusual clause & would guess that virtually no one else has it. I would think that it would mean that his salary would be determined by an arbitrator, presumably with the arbitrator picking between his figure or our's. If this is the case, this would be the time to consider extending him, tying him into a differently structured contract.

hebroncougar
08-03-2012, 08:23 AM
Doesn't he have to accumulate 6 years of service time to be a free agent like everyone else? Otherwise, its arbitration?

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mdccclxix
08-03-2012, 08:24 AM
When he's arb eligible after 2013, he'll get his 3 million as a bonus and then they'll have to determine his salary via arbiter, which could be a lot of money by then if he's a great starter or closer. So 2014 is already looking like he'll make 6-10 million. Rather than go to arbitration, Walt will definitely get something done by then, hopefully with multiple years added on.

This next offseason will be difficult to gauge since he's not a starter yet. Chapman's agents may recommend he wait to see what his next role/value will look like.

mdccclxix
08-03-2012, 08:27 AM
Doesn't he have to accumulate 6 years of service time to be a free agent like everyone else? Otherwise, its arbitration?

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It's a fair point.

PuffyPig
08-03-2012, 08:27 AM
Doesn't he have to accumulate 6 years of service time to be a free agent like everyone else? Otherwise, its arbitration?

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That is correct.

If he declines his "player option" he doesn't become a FA, it's just that he's arbitration eligible.

mdccclxix
08-03-2012, 08:31 AM
Depending on the payroll, having Chapman at 2 million next year still allows a closer to be signed while they try him as a starter. That said, they could do a 3 year extension that starts in 2015 for 8, 9, 10 million per? I think fans would love that.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2012, 08:33 AM
That is correct.

If he declines his "player option" he doesn't become a FA, it's just that he's arbitration eligible.

Thanks for clearing that up. I wasn't sure and I feel much better now.

mdccclxix
08-03-2012, 08:33 AM
That is correct.

If he declines his "player option" he doesn't become a FA, it's just that he's arbitration eligible.

aha, that changes things! I think the Reds and Chapman can wait to see if he can start before making the next move. I wouldn't mind a proactive extension, but do have a little concern about the shoulder last offseason and his ability to handle a starters workload, not to mention years of throwing 100 mph.

I(heart)Freel
08-03-2012, 08:48 AM
I think it would be bad business to negotiate with a player after a potentially history-book year. They have the time. Wait to see how he does as a starter, then go to the table.

Benihana
08-03-2012, 10:36 AM
I would absolutely not think about extending him at this time.

See what happens next year and the year after: Is he a starter or a closer? Does his arm hold up?

I'd think about extending Latos or Leake this offseason long before I'd consider Chapman.

oregonred
08-03-2012, 10:46 AM
Reds control Chapman through 2016. It may cost a fortune in 2015 and 2016 arbitration, but he is under club control.

Would focus extension discussions on Latos and Bailey first. Maybe they can buy a bit low on Latos to extend him out another 2 years into 2017.

kaldaniels
08-03-2012, 10:47 AM
I would just add to anyone jumping on here...

This thread was started with the premise that Chap was only controlled thru 2014, which is not correct.

redsfandan
08-03-2012, 12:30 PM
I would just add to anyone jumping on here...

This thread was started with the premise that Chap was only controlled thru 2014, which is not correct.

The Reds might not own his rights only through 2014 but I doubt it's through 2016. That would mean that the Reds signed an international free agent and got his rights for 7 years. That doesn't sound right.


Reds control Chapman through 2016. It may cost a fortune in 2015 and 2016 arbitration, but he is under club control.

Would focus extension discussions on Latos and Bailey first. Maybe they can buy a bit low on Latos to extend him out another 2 years into 2017.

11larkin11
08-03-2012, 12:35 PM
Depending on the payroll, having Chapman at 2 million next year still allows a closer to be signed while they try him as a starter. That said, they could do a 3 year extension that starts in 2015 for 8, 9, 10 million per? I think fans would love that.

I think next year's closer, if Chapman finally, hopefully, goes to the rotation, will be either Madson or Broxton. Neither are signed for next year, but Madson sounded like he'd be up for coming back, and if we go far, I'm sure Broxton would love to play for a winner.

toledodan
08-03-2012, 01:34 PM
i would stay away from signing him any longer until we change him to a starter.

kaldaniels
08-03-2012, 02:22 PM
The Reds might not own his rights only through 2014 but I doubt it's through 2016. That would mean that the Reds signed an international free agent and got his rights for 7 years. That doesn't sound right.

Simple question to the board then, if Chap stays in the bigs, how long do the Reds control him through?

mth123
08-03-2012, 07:33 PM
Simple question to the board then, if Chap stays in the bigs, how long do the Reds control him through?

Through 2016 assuming he stays in the majors. If he goes down for a couple months, through 2017.

mdccclxix
08-03-2012, 07:53 PM
Through 2016 assuming he stays in the majors. If he goes down for a couple months, through 2017.

Sounds like a plan!

redsfandan
08-03-2012, 08:12 PM
Through 2016 assuming he stays in the majors. If he goes down for a couple months, through 2017.

Well, if he's ever going to be a starting pitcher that would be a good excuse for him to get a couple months in the minors. Make sure there's someone to take over as closer and then get Chapman some minor league starts sometime next year and then he can take Arroyo's spot in 2014.

DGullett35
08-04-2012, 03:23 PM
I think next year's closer, if Chapman finally, hopefully, goes to the rotation, will be either Madson or Broxton. Neither are signed for next year, but Madson sounded like he'd be up for coming back, and if we go far, I'm sure Broxton would love to play for a winner.

I really hope that we can sign Broxton for a couple years considering we gave up 2 pretty decent pitching prospect to get him. I would hate for him to just be a rental. Hopefully he does value playing on a winning ballclub because most likely he will have a great shot to be next years closer with Chappy starting(hopefully) and Madson wanting to come back. Madson would most likely be the set-up man because as we all know it will take a year for him to be back to his old self following Tommy John. JJ Hoover could have a say in how all this turns out too. Maybe the front office has plans for him being in the back end of this bullpen as the future unfolds.

camisadelgolf
08-04-2012, 03:49 PM
The Reds' control Chapman's rights through at least the end of the 2016 season. If Chapman is optioned to the minors, there's the potential that he could be controlled even longer, but it's really doubtful that would happen.

Blitz Dorsey
08-04-2012, 06:40 PM
Damn, I didn't know the 6th year was a player option. Damn, damn, damn. And damn.

EDIT: Wait, now I'm confused. When exactly can Chapman become a free agent?

camisadelgolf
08-04-2012, 06:43 PM
Damn, I didn't know the 6th year was a player option. Damn, damn, damn. And damn.

EDIT: Wait, now I'm confused. When exactly can Chapman become a free agent?
At the soonest, Chapman can become a free agent after the 2016 season. Even if he refuses the player option, the Reds can offer him arbitration and retain control of him.

Blitz Dorsey
08-04-2012, 06:44 PM
The Reds' control Chapman's rights through at least the end of the 2016 season. If Chapman is optioned to the minors, there's the potential that he could be controlled even longer, but it's really doubtful that would happen.

Thank you. This is great news.

So, to answer the question in the thread title: No, the Reds should wait to extend Chapman.

redsfandan
08-04-2012, 09:24 PM
Decisions on extensions for Bailey and Arroyo probably need to be made first.

kaldaniels
08-04-2012, 09:25 PM
Decisions on extensions for Bailey and Arroyo probably need to be made first.

There is no decision on Arroyo. Bye bye after next year.

Now if someone will take him and he's agreeable to it....

CrackerJack
08-04-2012, 11:19 PM
The Reds' Aroldis Chapman's stats over his last 19 games: 0 runs, 39 Ks, 3 walks, 8 hits in 18 1-3 innings; 17 saves in 17 chances.

Sick!