PDA

View Full Version : Are the young starting pitchers starting to wear down?



Vottomatic
08-05-2012, 08:37 PM
A concern for me.

I've advocated letting Redmond and/or Hoover take a few starts and give a Cueto, Bailey and Leake a short break.

But discuss.

Joseph
08-05-2012, 09:47 PM
I'm not so much worried that they ARE, but moreso that they WILL.

As old school romantic as it would be for the staff to go the whole season, I don't know that its logical to the short or long term success of the team for only 5 starters to last that long considering the youth of a couple of the guys.

Tony Cloninger
08-05-2012, 10:13 PM
They are not even at 150 innings yet. If they are going to wear down at that....how are they going to ever get ready for trying to pitch 200. Which I think you should expect your top 3 starters at least to do....eventually.

steig
08-05-2012, 10:25 PM
I'm concerned that Bailey is going to break down. He has not made it through a complete season without problems and I'm concerned he will have issues soon. I also think Bailey may be the biggest key to the post season. In the cold october air I want pitchers with decent fastballs in the rotation rather than junk ball pitchers.

Always Red
08-05-2012, 10:39 PM
I'm concerned that Bailey is going to break down. He has not made it through a complete season without problems and I'm concerned he will have issues soon. I also think Bailey may be the biggest key to the post season. In the cold october air I want pitchers with decent fastballs in the rotation rather than junk ball pitchers.

He threw 202 innings in 2009, when you add AAA to MLB. 132 in 2010, and 162 last year, shut down both years due to shoulder fatigue/whatever.

I am more concerned with Leake, who is slighter and threw 167 last year. he should be shut down a bit before 200 innings, if you believe in the Verducci Effect.

Hoover would be a nice guy to have in September to give Leake and maybe Homer a breather.

Latos had 185, then 195 in the last two years, and Arroyo and Cueto (170+ innings from 2008-2010) should be fine, given their innings thrown in past.

reds44
08-05-2012, 11:02 PM
I just don't think Bailey and Leake are as good as there numbers were, say, 2 weeks ago. They were due for a regression. Nothing to do with innings, IMO.

WVRedsFan
08-05-2012, 11:41 PM
I just don't think Bailey and Leake are as good as there numbers were, say, 2 weeks ago. They were due for a regression. Nothing to do with innings, IMO.

I agree. Both are time bombs, ready to explode at any time.

REDREAD
08-06-2012, 01:59 AM
I agree. Both are time bombs, ready to explode at any time.

Not sure they are timebombs, but they are inconsistent.
They'll give us a mix of up and downs throughout the rest of the season.

DGullett35
08-06-2012, 06:57 AM
I dont think they're wearing down. Once they get closer to 200 innings that could be the case but we're a ways from that still. Bailey has been better on the road all season. I have confidence he'll get it together for his next start. He seemslike a guy that has to watch his mechanics meticuously and he may be off track a little bit right now. Leake on the other hand has been up and down all year and I think the norm for him going forward is 6 innings and 3 or 4er which at this point ill take every time out from him. Cueto is still pitching great and Latos is getting better as the season goes forward. Also Bronson has been pretty goood too when we needed it most. I think as long as those 3 continue to pitch good that we can afford to have the inconsistent starts of Leake and Bailey. The good thing is that when one of those 2 are on they can be outright nasty. Its not like they are horrible every time out.

Vottomatic
08-06-2012, 08:28 AM
Either Welsh or Brantley made comments yesterday in the postgame about how pitchers can't wait to pitch early in the season and how 5 days can't go fast enough. By middle of the season, they're thinking has 5 days already passed and geez, I have to pitch again. But then they said, come late August they tend to get their second wind and their arms come back.

I know I didn't dream them saying it, and I hope it's true. Just can't remember which one said it.......I'm thinking Welsh.

dman
08-06-2012, 09:23 AM
The inconsistency of Bailey and Leake is what concerns me more than the possibility of them wearing down. Homer Bailey is the equivalent to our pitching staff as what Drew Stubbs is to our position players. When he's on, he's dead on, but when things turn south, finding a way out of their funk seems to take forever,and I'm worried that Homer is headed towards a funk.

Mike Leake being a soft tosser is bound to catch up with him.

LoganBuck
08-06-2012, 02:50 PM
Just thinking outloud here.

I could see a roster shakeup coming for the Cubs double header a week from Saturday. They have publicly been hinting that Redmond would get that start. I would suggest that as long as he pitches a credible game. That they leave him up and skip Homer and then Leake for at least a rotation turn after that. Option Redmond after taking the third start, before September 1. Bring him back up when he is eligible after September 1.

traderumor
08-06-2012, 03:22 PM
Right now, its all about consecutive starts at GAB for both of them, who have dramatic home/road splits this season. Leake pitched OK Saturday, three of the four runs he gave up were flukey. That was encouraging. Homer did well to keep it at 4 runs as long as he did, just not missing bats yesterday.

MikeS21
08-06-2012, 03:35 PM
Another issue for Homer was the weather. When it is damp and humid like it was during Sunday's game, he may not have gotten the best grip on his pitches.

Homer typically is better after the AS break than before.

Tom Servo
08-06-2012, 03:36 PM
Reds starter Homer Bailey (9-7) had one of those days. Bailey lasted 4 2/3 innings and allowed four runs (all earned), on nine hits. Bailey in his last two starts is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA, after going 4-0 with a 1.43 ERA in his five previous starts.

I dont think it was anything physical, Bailey said. I dont feel tired at all, I feel good. Just execution of pitches, thats all it was.

corkedbat
08-06-2012, 08:44 PM
I am startinng to worry a but, not so much for now, but moreso about three of for weeks down the road. I'd feel a lot better if Walt had been able to talk the Baby Bears into Corcino or Cingrani instead of Hamilton in the reported deal for Garza and DeJesus.

CrackerJack
08-07-2012, 12:57 AM
Hasn't the long relief been fairly well rested for a while now? Shouldn't Dusty be thinking about saving his young pitchers at any opportunity, at this point, that he can? I suppose the other side of it is, he likely doesn't get a lot of opportunities when they're constantly in so many close games, and his best hitter is out for a month.

At least Homer is saying he feels good, but I can't help but to think someone is going to implode as he and Leake, I believe, start to go well past their innings totals soon.

Tom Servo
08-07-2012, 01:10 AM
Hasn't the long relief been fairly well rested for a while now? Shouldn't Dusty be thinking about saving his young pitchers at any opportunity, at this point, that he can? I suppose the other side of it is, he likely doesn't get a lot of opportunities when they're constantly in so many close games, and his best hitter is out for a month.

At least Homer is saying he feels good, but I can't help but to think someone is going to implode as he and Leake, I believe, start to go well past their innings totals soon.
I don't think it should be limited to the young starters. I generally like Dusty, but I think sometimes he's too stubborn about wanting a certain amount of innings from his starter regardless of if the guy is pitching well or not. I'm content with going to the bullpen a bit more in those situations, especially when we've had guys like Simon, LeCure, and even Ondrusek in the past go more than a week without an appearance.

vic715
08-07-2012, 01:15 AM
If there is a decent starter out there that can be had on a waiver deal then I'm all for it.Garza, Beckett or whoever but do it.