PDA

View Full Version : Cairo



Col_ IN Reds fan
08-10-2012, 09:55 AM
Surely to God the Reds have someone in the minors that is a better hitter than this guy.

RedFanAlways1966
08-10-2012, 10:16 AM
Makes me think of the Jamie Ramsey/Twitter thread. If you performed that poorly at your job, shouldn't you be relieved of your duties?

How long must this continue? This guy cannot hit and is an out machine. If he was a great fielding catcher (think of LaRussa's comment about Molina), then OK. He is a utility guy and (do not curse me) a pinch hitter.

Why? Are his clubhouse presence/leadership so important that it creates intangible wins that make up for all the outs? I am befuddled and sick-n-tired of it. He is not the only bad guy right now, but good god... what gives, Walt and Dusty?

Kc61
08-10-2012, 10:39 AM
The moment of truth for Cairo is when Votto comes back. We'll see if the Reds DL or cut Miggy at that time. If they cut XMan and keep Cairo there will be a one long thread around here.

Dan
08-10-2012, 11:04 AM
The moment of truth for Cairo is when Votto comes back. We'll see if the Reds DL or cut Miggy at that time. If they cut XMan and keep Cairo there will be a one long thread around here.

One? You've been around here long enough to know there will be a lot more than one. :D

vic715
08-10-2012, 01:15 PM
Trust me Dusty will fight to keep Cairo when Votto comes back.I'm hoping that they fix that bench before Sept 1 and have both he and Valdez out of here by then and I don't care who they replace them with.Won't happen though.

OnBaseMachine
08-10-2012, 01:30 PM
Wilson Valdez also has a .491 OPS. Reds have two players on the bench providing absolutely no value.

RedsManRick
08-10-2012, 01:36 PM
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but Cairo has a .174 BABIP in just over PA.

In 2010 he hit .290/.353/.410 (.320 BABIP). In 2011 he hit .265/.330/.412 (.279 BABIP). Unless somebody has a scouting report indicating otherwise, he did not suddenly lose the ability to hit. He's simply has had a stretch of bad performance/ bad luck that we should not expect to continue.

Cairo plays good defense at 3 positions and is well respected in the clubhouse. It is unlikely that either Didi Gregorious or Henry Rodriguez become the hitter Cairo already is. Don't get me wrong, Cairo is no stud. But trying to assess what a guy is likely to do moving forward based on his last 100 PA is always a bad idea.

Wilson Valdez, by contrast, is just a different shade of Paul Janish. He's not experiencing a slump, this is just what he is and he does virtually nothing to help this club.

Tom Servo
08-10-2012, 01:43 PM
I think Valdez is fine for what he is. A bunter, a fielder, and occasional spot starter. I don't get why Dusty gives him semi-regular starts.

Vottomatic
08-10-2012, 01:44 PM
I think Dusty is hoping someone else gets injured about the time Votto comes back so he doesn't have to give Cairo the news he's been cut.

It wouldn't surprise me that those who love Cairo are counting the days until the rosters enlarge in September so they can keep him around.

757690
08-10-2012, 01:47 PM
Every team needs backup infielders. Rarely can they hit well. If they can fill in defensively when needed, they are useful. Any hits they get are gravy.

Big Klu
08-10-2012, 01:49 PM
I think Valdez is fine for what he is. A bunter, a fielder, and occasional spot starter. I don't get why Dusty gives him semi-regular starts.

The only reason Valdez has seen a decent amount of PT lately is injury. Otherwise he would still be buried on the bench. He has seen significantly less action than he did in Philadelphia the last two years.

Johnny Footstool
08-10-2012, 01:51 PM
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but Cairo has a .174 BABIP in just over PA.

In 2010 he hit .290/.353/.410 (.320 BABIP). In 2011 he hit .265/.330/.412 (.279 BABIP). Unless somebody has a scouting report indicating otherwise, he did not suddenly lose the ability to hit. He's simply has had a stretch of bad performance/ bad luck that we should not expect to continue.


Isn't Cairo at that age when players can and do suddenly lose the ability to hit?

Big Klu
08-10-2012, 02:00 PM
Every team needs backup infielders. Rarely can they hit well. If they can fill in defensively when needed, they are useful. Any hits they get are gravy.

If they could hit well, they would be starting infielders.

Next year, I would not be surprised to see Didi Gregorius in The Valdez/Janish role of backup middle INF. He makes league minimum, and he would provide a left-handed bat for the bench. LH-hitting SS's are rarer than LH-hitting C's.

LoganBuck
08-10-2012, 02:04 PM
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but Cairo has a .174 BABIP in just over PA.

In 2010 he hit .290/.353/.410 (.320 BABIP). In 2011 he hit .265/.330/.412 (.279 BABIP). Unless somebody has a scouting report indicating otherwise, he did not suddenly lose the ability to hit. He's simply has had a stretch of bad performance/ bad luck that we should not expect to continue.

Cairo plays good defense at 3 positions and is well respected in the clubhouse. It is unlikely that either Didi Gregorious or Henry Rodriguez become the hitter Cairo already is. Don't get me wrong, Cairo is no stud. But trying to assess what a guy is likely to do moving forward based on his last 100 PA is always a bad idea.

Wilson Valdez, by contrast, is just a different shade of Paul Janish. He's not experiencing a slump, this is just what he is and he does virtually nothing to help this club.

But to be fair. You could say that Cairo has just reverted back to what he has been all but four years of his long career, a guy who can't hit. The sample size that says that he is just a marginal bench guy who has fallen off the cliff, due to age, screams look at me. He has 2 walks in 108 plate appearances that suggest that pitchers aren't afraid of him putting the ball in play. He isn't striking out really either, I think it is fair to say that he just isn't hitting the ball hard. His line drive % is down and his infield popup % is way up.

I see a gritty older player with the ability to handle a bat, that can't create the bat speed necessary to be a big league asset.

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2012, 02:26 PM
I think Cairo is not hitting because he has lost the ability to hit. He's 98 years old. It happens. Bat speed looks real slow, and has no power. I don't think he's a regression to .750 OPS waiting to happen.

I also think he has minimal defensive value at this point. Seeing him live for multiple games, he looked compeltely laughable at 2nd base and 1st base. I think he handles 3rd base okay, but that doesn't really matter on this team when we have two guys that do it better.

I'm a Cairo fan, but he's done, and needs to go when Votto comes back. I'd love to keep him as a coach, or if willing to accept an assignment to the minors for 15 days, he can come back in September.

PuffyPig
08-10-2012, 02:30 PM
Every team needs backup infielders. Rarely can they hit well. If they can fill in defensively when needed, they are useful. Any hits they get are gravy.

Cairo is not a back up middle infielder, Valdez is.

A back up at 3B and 1B needs to hit.

Frazier entered the year as the back up 1B and 3B. That's what you want as a back up in those postions, although he's hit much better than anyone expected.

RedsManRick
08-10-2012, 02:44 PM
But to be fair. You could say that Cairo has just reverted back to what he has been all but four years of his long career, a guy who can't hit. The sample size that says that he is just a marginal bench guy who has fallen off the cliff, due to age, screams look at me. He has 2 walks in 108 plate appearances that suggest that pitchers aren't afraid of him putting the ball in play. He isn't striking out really either, I think it is fair to say that he just isn't hitting the ball hard. His line drive % is down and his infield popup % is way up.

I see a gritty older player with the ability to handle a bat, that can't create the bat speed necessary to be a big league asset.

So he has two walks. He's literally a few pitches away from having the number his career rate would suggest is normal. 2 walks in 108 PA instead of the expected 6 is squarely within reasonable variance (having nothing to do with skill).

Yeah, his LD% is down and his PU% is up. Again, I don't deny that he's not hit well at all. I'm arguing that a guy hitting poorly over 108 PA tells us basically nothing about his ability to it.

If he has truly lost the bat speed needed to be effective, I'm all for a switch. But all those ugly stats don't make a 108 PA sample any valid. At this point, any judgment of his ability to hit relative what we've observed the past few seasons has to be a scouting based decision. I'm very skeptical of amateur scouting observations made in support of a conclusion that seems to have been drawn based on what a small sample of stats suggests. Observation bias is extremely powerful.

And perhaps more to the point, even if he's reverted to his career numbers, what are the odds that Rodriguez or Gregorius hits .264/.314/.360 in the majors right now? If we had the next Todd Frazier raking in AAA, I wouldn't think twice about bring him up. But to ditch Cairo for somebody who, if he makes the leap, is still likely to be an inferior to the player who Cairo was last year and comparable to what we're likely to get from Cairo moving forward just seems silly.

Mike Costanzo was hitting .280/.369/.461 in AAA. Henry Rodriguez is hitting .256/.281.361. Chris Valaika is hitting .230/.263/.368.

Again, I'm all for improving the squad. I just don't want to see change for change's sake. As much as I complain about Dusty making poor decisions on weird small samples, I credit Jocketty for being pretty good at taking the longer view than most of us have the patience for.

So while we can argue whether or not Cairo has lost it, the reality of the situation is "no, we don't have anybody in the minors who is a better alternative than this guy."

LoganBuck
08-10-2012, 02:58 PM
So he has two walks. He's literally a few pitches away from having the number his career rate would suggest is normal. 2 walks in 108 PA instead of the expected 6 is squarely within reasonable variance (having nothing to do with skill).

Yeah, his LD% is down and his PU% is up. Again, I don't deny that he's not hit well at all. I'm arguing that a guy hitting poorly over 108 PA tells us basically nothing about his ability to it.

If he has truly lost the bat speed needed to be effective, I'm all for a switch. But all those ugly stats don't make a 108 PA sample any valid. At this point, any judgment of his ability to hit relative what we've observed the past few seasons has to be a scouting based decision. I'm very skeptical of amateur scouting observations made in support of a conclusion that seems to have been drawn based on what a small sample of stats suggests. Observation bias is extremely powerful.

And perhaps more to the point, even if he's reverted to his career numbers, what are the odds that Rodriguez or Gregorius hits .264/.314/.360 in the majors right now? If we had the next Todd Frazier raking in AAA, I wouldn't think twice about bring him up. But to ditch Cairo for somebody who, if he makes the leap, is still likely to be an inferior to the player who Cairo was last year and comparable to what we're likely to get from Cairo moving forward just seems silly.

Mike Costanzo was hitting .280/.369/.461 in AAA. Henry Rodriguez is hitting .256/.281.361. Chris Valaika is hitting .230/.263/.368.

Again, I'm all for improving the squad. I just don't want to see change for change's sake. As much as I complain about Dusty making poor decisions on weird small samples, I credit Jocketty for being pretty good at taking the longer view than most of us have the patience for.

So while we can argue whether or not Cairo has lost it, the reality of the situation is "no, we don't have anybody in the minors who is a better alternative than this guy."

I agree, with what you are saying about potential replacements. My point is that we have two guys, if you take my view of Cairo, and our shared opinion of Valdez, that can't hit. Understanding that Valdez is a glove guy. The bench needs to be upgraded, if this team is to make the playoffs, and do anything once it gets there. The very thought that Yuniesky Betancourt would be an upgrade to this team should send chills through the heart of every Reds fan.

RedsManRick
08-10-2012, 04:20 PM
I agree, with what you are saying about potential replacements. My point is that we have two guys, if you take my view of Cairo, and our shared opinion of Valdez, that can't hit. Understanding that Valdez is a glove guy. The bench needs to be upgraded, if this team is to make the playoffs, and do anything once it gets there. The very thought that Yuniesky Betancourt would be an upgrade to this team should send chills through the heart of every Reds fan.

If I took your view regarding Cairo, I'd agree with you. I don't. I do agree that we need an upgrade over Valdez. The Reds have an infield of 3 gold glovers and a SS who is league average at worst. We have no need for a utility defensive replacement.

If there was a guy out there who represents a real upgrade, I'm game. But Yuni only comes close to that if you think Cairo's 108 PA this year are truly indicative of his ability to hit.

fearofpopvol1
08-10-2012, 06:44 PM
Wilson Valdez also has a .491 OPS. Reds have two players on the bench providing absolutely no value.

Valdez can play any spot on the field outside of catcher. He runs decently and he can put down a bunt. I honestly have no problem with him on the roster as he serves a purpose. However, I do think Dusty gives him too many starts.

Cairo on the other hand has been dismal this year. I was a big fan the last 2 years, but he doesn't seem to have it this year. I would cut him when Votto comes back.

757690
08-10-2012, 06:58 PM
Cairo is not a back up middle infielder, Valdez is.

A back up at 3B and 1B needs to hit.

Frazier entered the year as the back up 1B and 3B. That's what you want as a back up in those postions, although he's hit much better than anyone expected.

Cairo plays second, Frazier doesn't. That came in handy when Phillips was injured, but not enough to to be DL'd. That happened twice this season. A team usually has two backup middle infielders.

CesarGeronimo
08-10-2012, 07:08 PM
I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but Cairo has a .174 BABIP in just over PA.

In 2010 he hit .290/.353/.410 (.320 BABIP). In 2011 he hit .265/.330/.412 (.279 BABIP). Unless somebody has a scouting report indicating otherwise, he did not suddenly lose the ability to hit. He's simply has had a stretch of bad performance/ bad luck that we should not expect to continue.




It seems like it's time to say Bye-ro.

But actually, I think you are right that moving forward, Cairo is likely to bounce back to close to the hitter he has been the past couple of year. After all, it wasn't long ago that many of us were ready to give up completely on Scott Rolen. He looked so bad at the plate and his numbers were abysmal. But lately (at least when he's been able to play), he's looked like he may still be a valuable hitter and player.

IslandRed
08-10-2012, 07:18 PM
Cairo plays second, Frazier doesn't. That came in handy when Phillips was injured, but not enough to to be DL'd. That happened twice this season. A team usually has two backup middle infielders.

Maybe if they're carrying only eleven pitchers, but if a team's carrying twelve pitchers (which is most teams) in the NL, they don't really have room. The typical bench would be:

2 - outfielders (with one being able to play CF)
1 - primarily corner infielder
1 - primarily middle infielder
1 - catcher

I agree with the general consensus of the thread, though -- Frazier/Cairo is the true redundancy when Votto comes back. Has been most of the season, really, but we didn't have a lot of alternatives for bench bats. Xavier Paul might be the guy who keeps that spot now.

camisadelgolf
08-10-2012, 07:20 PM
There are a million reasons why Miguel Cairo is on the team, and none of them have to do with his ability to hit a baseball at this point. What he brings to the team is immeasurable right now.

LoganBuck
08-10-2012, 08:00 PM
There are a million reasons why Miguel Cairo is on the team, and none of them have to do with his ability to NOT hit a baseball at this point. What he brings to the team is measurable right now.

Fixed. His -1.6 WAR clearly shows he is not helping win actual baseball games.

camisadelgolf
08-10-2012, 08:40 PM
Fixed. His -1.6 WAR clearly shows he is not helping win actual baseball games.
The theory is that he helps the performance of everyone else on the team.

Raisor
08-10-2012, 08:53 PM
The theory is that he helps the performance of everyone else on the team.

then make him a coach.

Roy Tucker
08-10-2012, 09:58 PM
then make him a coach.

I agree. Cairo is a great guy and I think he'll make an excellent coach or manager. He is certainly worth keeping in the organization. I very much want him to do well. I like the guy.

But he is also 38 years old and, you can BABIP all you want, but I think there is a reason why he is racking up outs like there is no tomorrow. He doesn't square the ball, he doesn't hit with any oomph, he has no walks, and he is very good at 16 hoppers to an infielder. I think he's lost that slim edge that it takes to hit the nuclear MLB pitching that exists in this post-steroid era.

On he other hand, his veteran presence I'm sure is an asset and he helps the younger guys through stretches like the current one. Him getting cut would probably be a body blow.

If the Reds had a no-brainer replacement down on the farm, I'd say DFA him. But the pickings are slim. Between now and the end of the month when the roster expands will be a critical time to get through. He's getting a lot of PT and I think he's over-exposed. If the Reds can get through this time, I think September will be the time to cut back on his PT and use him judiciously and more effectively.

mth123
08-10-2012, 10:54 PM
The easy answer would seem to be to DL him when Votto gets back, let him stay with the team and then activate him on September 1. The Reds could still use him on the play-off roster if they wish.

Of course, they may need to DL Rolen instead.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 12:17 AM
then make him a coach.
I'd love that, but I think he'd rather be a player than a coach. And seeing as how teams would be willing to make offers for him as a player, I doubt the feasibility of that happening.

Tony Cloninger
08-11-2012, 12:25 AM
I'd love that, but I think he'd rather be a player than a coach. And seeing as how teams would be willing to make offers for him as a player, I doubt the feasibility of that happening.

IF Ken Griffey Sr. could be moved out of his roster spot for Chris Hammond in 1990....then Cairo can most certainly do the same. You talk like he's got the dead sea scrolls in hos back pocket and he has some sort of magical chemistry powers.

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 12:52 AM
The theory is that he helps the performance of everyone else on the team.

There is no way he is providing enough "value" in that sort to be worth the production he has offered. He has been measurably bad, and maybe there is some bullcrap stuff in his favour that people speculate about, but I'm sure the people that replace him aren't such awful people that the rest of the team will suffer with their existence on the 25 man roster.

757690
08-11-2012, 01:00 AM
There is no way he is providing enough "value" in that sort to be worth the production he has offered. He has been measurably bad, and maybe there is some bullcrap stuff in his favour that people speculate about, but I'm sure the people that replace him aren't such awful people that the rest of the team will suffer with their existence on the 25 man roster.

If he were to be replaced right now with a similar glove that OPS'd .750 instead of Cairo's absurd .387, it would likely result in additional 4 runs over the rest of the season, less than half a win. If he was replaced the whole season by that player, it would be around 10 runs or one win.

I don't think it's crazy talk to assume that his clubhouse presence is worth at least that much.

When it comes to the 25th man, give me a good glove guy with a strong clubhouse presence every time. That's where his value lies.

powersackers
08-11-2012, 01:01 AM
There is value in bringing DiDi or HRod up to get them experience. But we're less than a month from roster expansion and if Cairo sniffs the field in September I would be surprised.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 03:23 AM
There is no way he is providing enough "value" in that sort to be worth the production he has offered. He has been measurably bad, and maybe there is some bullcrap stuff in his favour that people speculate about, but I'm sure the people that replace him aren't such awful people that the rest of the team will suffer with their existence on the 25 man roster.
Do you have data to back up that claim?

VR
08-11-2012, 03:34 AM
Turns out, he sucks.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 03:43 AM
IF Ken Griffey Sr. could be moved out of his roster spot for Chris Hammond in 1990....then Cairo can most certainly do the same. You talk like he's got the dead sea scrolls in hos back pocket and he has some sort of magical chemistry powers.
Being a baseball player involves more than what you do on the field. You have to exercise. You have to eat well. You have to travel. You have to handle the media. You have to build trust with teammates. You have to make countless adjustments. Maybe he helps with those things. Maybe he steals signs. Supposedly he's a gym rat, which sets a precedent. He's bilingual. He's supposedly an expert at recognizing when pitchers are tipping their pitches.

I didn't mean to intend that he has 'magical chemistry powers'. The truth is we don't know what he brings to the team besides his production. Has he been playing well lately? No. I won't even try to argue that (although I don't think he's as bad as his production shows). Does he help the team overall? Maybe, maybe not.

I'm not saying the Reds should or shouldn't release him. I'm saying the reasons he's on the team aren't because he's such a good baseball player. It's because of everything else that he supposedly brings. We can't measure it. But what I do know is that the Reds are in first place, and there's a possibility that he helped them get there by doing more than what can be measured. We're dealing with real life baseball players--not video game baseball players.

AtomicDumpling
08-11-2012, 04:31 AM
Cairo definitely has some value on the Reds or he wouldn't be there, but a GM with the skills of Walt Jocketty should be able to find a player that is even better to upgrade the roster.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 06:13 AM
Yeah, I'm sure ownership would love that conversation. Enjoy the dramatization.

Walt Jocketty: Hey, Bob. I gotta ask for something.
Bob Castellini: This better not be about money again.
WJ: Um . . .
BC: Okay, okay. Whataya got?
WJ: Miguel Cairo isn't hitting. We need an upgrade.
BC: Wow. He's been with us a while now. How will it affect the team?
WJ: Well, of course they'll be very sad to see him go. They'll miss his leadership and experience. It will help create a clubhouse of paranoia and uncertainty. It might even be a distraction. But it sends the message that they need to perform or else they'll be next on the chopping block.
BC: Okay, cool. But wasn't it your idea to extend him?
WJ: Well, yeah. We needed his experience and leadership. But unfortunately, he just stopped hitting.
BC: Oh, I see. So you want me to pay for your mistake again. Remember Willy Taveras? hahahaha
WJ: *nervous laughter*
BC: Or maybe I should say "Aaron Miles".
WJ: *sweating* So anyway, his replacement would only cost about $145,000.
BC: Oh, is that all? Okay, cool. How much better will that make us?
WJ: If everything goes much better than expected, about 1 win. Cairo hasn't even played in half the games this year, so it's not like it'd make a huge difference. And we're second-to-last in the waiver line, so all the players worth trading for won't be obtainable.
BC: Okay, so who are you replacing him with?
WJ: Well, we were thinking either Henry Rodriguez or Chris Valaika.
BC: What about the experience and leadership you needed from Cairo? Will one of those guys give you that?
WJ: Well, no. But if you don't mind spending more money, we could call up Willie Harris again.
BC: Uh, right . . . we're still in first, right?
WJ: Yup. By a few games.
BC: So you want me to pay $145,000 to replace a guy whose contract you extended?
WJ: Yup.
BC: And the team will be distraught over it?
WJ: Right.
BC: And you don't have a significant upgrade available?
WJ: Exactly.
BC: And it might not even make us better?
WJ: You got it.
BC: But you told me before the season that you could win with the budget I so graciously gave you.
WJ: Well, every little bit counts.
BC: Yeah, it counts against the pocket book, too. Get out of here, jackass.

LoganBuck
08-11-2012, 08:26 AM
Yeah, I'm sure ownership would love that conversation. Enjoy the dramatization.

Walt Jocketty: Hey, Bob. I gotta ask for something.
Bob Castellini: This better not be about money again.
WJ: Um . . .
BC: Okay, okay. Whataya got?
WJ: Miguel Cairo isn't hitting. We need an upgrade.
BC: Wow. He's been with us a while now. How will it affect the team?
WJ: Well, of course they'll be very sad to see him go. They'll miss his leadership and experience. It will help create a clubhouse of paranoia and uncertainty. It might even be a distraction. But it sends the message that they need to perform or else they'll be next on the chopping block.
BC: Okay, cool. But wasn't it your idea to extend him?
WJ: Well, yeah. We needed his experience and leadership. But unfortunately, he just stopped hitting.
BC: Oh, I see. So you want me to pay for your mistake again. Remember Willy Taveras? hahahaha
WJ: *nervous laughter*
BC: Or maybe I should say "Aaron Miles".
WJ: *sweating* So anyway, his replacement would only cost about $145,000.
BC: Oh, is that all? Okay, cool. How much better will that make us?
WJ: If everything goes much better than expected, about 1 win. Cairo hasn't even played in half the games this year, so it's not like it'd make a huge difference. And we're second-to-last in the waiver line, so all the players worth trading for won't be obtainable.
BC: Okay, so who are you replacing him with?
WJ: Well, we were thinking either Henry Rodriguez or Chris Valaika.
BC: What about the experience and leadership you needed from Cairo? Will one of those guys give you that?
WJ: Well, no. But if you don't mind spending more money, we could call up Willie Harris again.
BC: Uh, right . . . we're still in first, right?
WJ: Yup. By a few games.
BC: So you want me to pay $145,000 to replace a guy whose contract you extended?
WJ: Yup.
BC: And the team will be distraught over it?
WJ: Right.
BC: And you don't have a significant upgrade available?
WJ: Exactly.
BC: And it might not even make us better?
WJ: You got it.
BC: But you told me before the season that you could win with the budget I so graciously gave you.
WJ: Well, every little bit counts.
BC: Yeah, it counts against the pocket book, too. Get out of here, jackass.

Hey, Walt the day after the season when we don't make the playoffs what am I supposed to say when asked about Cairo popping up with the bases loaded ending our season?

Well Bob, say that I think my team is a bunch of babies that couldn't deal with the concept of dumping a player that was costing each player a chance at their playoff shares.

That should sit well with everyone.

PuffyPig
08-11-2012, 10:44 AM
Do you have data to back up that claim?

You're asking for data that proves his "locker room" ability can be replaced?

Do you have any "data" that proves he, in fact, has a positive effect on the locker room, and that the locker room would suffer greatly if he was replaced by a useful player?

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 01:32 PM
You're asking for data that proves his "locker room" ability can be replaced?

Do you have any "data" that proves he, in fact, has a positive effect on the locker room, and that the locker room would suffer greatly if he was replaced by a useful player?

Exactly. The notion that Cairo is worth more than 1 win with his savy clubhouse prescence is actually the one that should be providing some facts to back-up that claim, as it is counter intuitive to how difficult it is to gain value on the baseball field. It's a theory, that makes little sense. Who exaclty on the Reds is overachiveing so grossly that it seems likely that this conclusion should be drawn?

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 01:36 PM
If he were to be replaced right now with a similar glove that OPS'd .750 instead of Cairo's absurd .387, it would likely result in additional 4 runs over the rest of the season, less than half a win. If he was replaced the whole season by that player, it would be around 10 runs or one win.

I don't think it's crazy talk to assume that his clubhouse presence is worth at least that much.

When it comes to the 25th man, give me a good glove guy with a strong clubhouse presence every time. That's where his value lies.

Cairo's on pace to be about -1.5 WAR this year, that's just a ballpark estimate. A good bench player can be worth, say 0.5 WAR over a year. That's 2 wins, or about 10M that has been thrown out the door with the inclusion of Cairo on the team. That's not immaterial to the Reds by any means. Not to mention the fact that making the playoffs could still easily come down to 1-2 games, or at least winning the division. Throwing that away even at the bottom roster is not good roster construction, and really has the potential to be meaningful. Cairo ought not to be the primary back-up at 3 positions when Votto is out. Having a guy OPSing .400 at first base multiple times as an injury replacement is simply laughable.

FYI, from watching Cairo this season, I don't think having the reputation as a good glove man works anymore. He looks extremely slow to me, with just horrid range at both 2nd and 1st. Maybe he can play 3rd base adequately, but with Rolen and Frazier on the roster I'm not sure how that matters. Valdez at least has the ability to play multiple positions in above average fashion. His inclusion on the roster makes sense for that reason.

*BaseClogger*
08-11-2012, 01:38 PM
When it comes to the 25th man, give me a good glove guy with a strong clubhouse presence every time. That's where his value lies.

Assuming Cairo is the 25th man, does that make Valdez the 26th man?

757690
08-11-2012, 02:04 PM
Exactly. The notion that Cairo is worth more than 1 win with his savy clubhouse prescence is actually the one that should be providing some facts to back-up that claim, as it is counter intuitive to how difficult it is to gain value on the baseball field. It's a theory, that makes little sense. Who exaclty on the Reds is overachiveing so grossly that it seems likely that this conclusion should be drawn?

If you can't understand how a player can have a positive influence on a team that goes beyond stats and that leads to them winning more games, then this discussion is pointless.

Continue to follow fantasy baseball, and I'll continue to follow real baseball that is played by actual human beings. I know it's cliche' and a cheap shot, but it's accurate in this case.

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 02:12 PM
If you can't understand how a player can have a positive influence on a team that goes beyond stats and that leads to them winning more games, then this discussion is pointless.

Continue to follow fantasy baseball, and I'll continue to follow real baseball that is played by actual human beings. I know it's cliche' and a cheap shot, but it's accurate in this case.

No, I'm arguing that it's not worth 2 wins.

If he had a 2 win personality, presumably somebody would have been paying him 20M a year in his prime when he added some positive value with his bat.

The "cheapshot" is unwarranted because you failed to properly characterize my argument, and you also have not demonstrated how Miguel Cairo is providing such immense immeasuable value that it should be obvious why he is on the roster.

For as much as you think I am being the stereotypical stats guy, you are playing up the "oldschool" stereotype, perhaps even worse by saying the discussion is pointless because I don't immediately agree with you despite the fact that you have brought 0 evidence or even a hypothesis for how one should be able to determine that Miguel Cairo has a 2 win personality on say, a Lyle Overbay or whatever else would fill the roster. THAT is what makes this a pointless argument.

Roy Tucker
08-11-2012, 02:27 PM
Maybe sometime in the future there will be psychological profile or physiological tests on a player's brain waves that shows the positive personality and leadership traits. But for right now, its just a theory that clubhouse leadership shows in wins on the field.

But I know from personal experience that working for good management vs. bad management has an effect on my work. As well as the cameraderie of working with a group of smart and motivated people as opposed to a bunch of idiots.

But, it is very difficult for me to quantify how much of that effect affects my performance. Is it 1% or 5% or 10% or all in my mind? I dunno. It smells like it should but I can't come up with a stat for it.

Likewise, it's just hard to measure that quality for a ballplayer. It's an interesting topic to discuss, but if you're looking for a pure stat to show it, I just don't think it exists.

757690
08-11-2012, 02:28 PM
No, I'm arguing that it's not worth 2 wins.

If he had a 2 win personality, presumably somebody would have been paying him 20M a year in his prime when he added some positive value with his bat.

The "cheapshot" is unwarranted because you failed to properly characterize my argument, and you also have not demonstrated how Miguel Cairo is providing such immense immeasuable value that it should be obvious why he is on the roster.

For as much as you think I am being the stereotypical stats guy, you are playing up the "oldschool" stereotype, perhaps even worse by saying the discussion is pointless because I don't immediately agree with you despite the fact that you have brought 0 evidence or even a hypothesis for how one should be able to determine that Miguel Cairo has a 2 win personality on say, a Lyle Overbay or whatever else would fill the roster. THAT is what makes this a pointless argument.

First, it's not about personality. Common misconception about intangibles. Some guys can be jerks, but have a positive clubhouse influence, and visa versa.

By definition, an intangible defies evidence. The whole point is that his worth goes beyond the numbers, beyond WAR. I can't give numerical evidence, but I can bring up Scott Rolen and Milton Bradley. Anyone who follows baseball should be able to understand the positive and negative influences they each had on their teams. There are countless other examples.

It's funny, because in other professions, the idea that a person can have positive or negstive effect on their co-workers is widely excepted. I imagine you have experienced it in wherever you work. People are added to teams or offices all the time in order to boost moral or the opposite, fired or moved because they are hurting moral. But it can't happen in baseball?

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 02:37 PM
First, it's not about personality. Common misconception about intangibles. Some guys can be jerks, but have a positive clubhouse influence, and visa versa.

By definition, an intangible defies evidence. The whole point is that his worth goes beyond the numbers, beyond WAR. I can't give numerical evidence, but I can bring up Scott Rolen and Milton Bradley. Anyone who follows baseball should be able to understand the positive and negative influences they each had on their teams. There are countless other examples.

It's funny, because in other professions, the idea that a person can have positive or negstive effect on their co-workers is widely excepted. I imagine you have experienced it in wherever you work. People are added to teams or offices all the time in order to boost moral or the opposite, fired or moved because they are hurting moral. But it can't happen in baseball?

Presumably then at some point Rolen would have been paid beyond his offensive and defensive contributions if it is obvious to anyone why knows anything about baseball. Rolen was always a 20M player on the field, but he was never paid for his intangibles. I'm curious why that never happened?

If what you are saying is true, then when Cairo is a coach, he will be getting paid 10M, because, again, it is so obvious to baseball people. I anxiously await.

Can you provide some commentary on what Cairo does that say a Lyle Overbay, or another veteran that could feasibly fill that void, doesn't?

Roy Tucker
08-11-2012, 02:51 PM
Presumably then at some point Rolen would have been paid beyond his offensive and defensive contributions if it is obvious to anyone why knows anything about baseball. Rolen was always a 20M player on the field, but he was never paid for his intangibles. I'm curious why that never happened?

If what you are saying is true, then when Cairo is a coach, he will be getting paid 10M, because, again, it is so obvious to baseball people. I anxiously await.

Can you provide some commentary on what Cairo does that say a Lyle Overbay, or another veteran that could feasibly fill that void, doesn't?

I think the way you are conducting this discussion is a good example. You can rip and belittle and demean people or you can do it in a reasonable and less confrontational tone. Like my grandmother said, you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 03:04 PM
I think the way you are conducting this discussion is a good example. You can rip and belittle and demean people or you can do it in a reasonable and less confrontational tone. Like my grandmother said, you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.

For one thing, I was the one that was told to go back to my fantasy baseball (which I don't play). Excuse me for defending my position against a fellow poster who aimed to belittle my stance, simply because I wasn't willing to take his opinions as facts, without a grain of evidence.

I'm not asking for a stat that can pinpoint the worth of the intangibles, because frankly, and as you said, it does not, and never will exist. It is not a measurable thing.

But if it is "so obvious to anyone who knows anything about baseball", I would imagine that some commentary could be presented as to the ways that Cairo adds value to the team over another veteran player, and some examples of when a major league team has paid multiple millions of dollars for a guy who offers little other than intangible value. If it is that obvious I would imagine there could at minimum, be some commentary to help back that opinion and advance the discussion, rather than jumping into the normal stereotypical chides. If somebody is going to be so deadset in that opinion, it would seem logical that they would have a few bullets to make for a persuasive stance.

Overall, I have always seen the value of Cairo (nobody every asked me that though), and appreciate that he perhaps adds some value beyond the boxscore. At the same time, there comes a point where a veteran's baseball skills have deteriorated beyond the point that no sum of inangible value can allow a player to add value to a major league team, especially on one in the thick of a playoff chase where every win is crucial.

757690
08-11-2012, 03:50 PM
Presumably then at some point Rolen would have been paid beyond his offensive and defensive contributions if it is obvious to anyone why knows anything about baseball. Rolen was always a 20M player on the field, but he was never paid for his intangibles. I'm curious why that never happened?

If what you are saying is true, then when Cairo is a coach, he will be getting paid 10M, because, again, it is so obvious to baseball people. I anxiously await.

Can you provide some commentary on what Cairo does that say a Lyle Overbay, or another veteran that could feasibly fill that void, doesn't?

Since when have contracts reflected a players skill or production? The current free agent/arbritation system in MLB pretty much eliminates a direct line between a players worth and his salary.

757690
08-11-2012, 03:54 PM
Overall, I have always seen the value of Cairo (nobody every asked me that though), and appreciate that he perhaps adds some value beyond the boxscore. At the same time, there comes a point where a veteran's baseball skills have deteriorated beyond the point that no sum of inangible value can allow a player to add value to a major league team, especially on one in the thick of a playoff chase where every win is crucial.

One thing we probably agree on. I wasn't as much defending Cairo, as defending the theory that it's possible that his value as a leader is greater than his value as a hitter and fielder.

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 03:59 PM
Since when have contracts reflected a players skill or production? The current free agent/arbritation system in MLB pretty much eliminates a direct line between a players worth and his salary.

What? What are free agent contracts based on?

757690
08-11-2012, 04:04 PM
What? What are free agent contracts based on?

Usually... owners stupidity, lol.

Wonderful Monds
08-11-2012, 04:37 PM
re: Cairo off the field, I think it was said definitively last year that he does steal signs and pick up on pitchers tipping pitches from the dugout.

AtomicDumpling
08-11-2012, 04:38 PM
In my opinion Cairo's intangibles and leadership, while valuable, are not a good enough reason to keep him on the active roster. He is a liability both offensively and defensively. Yes his BABIP is likely to correct back to the norm someday, but it will have to correct to the opposite extreme to make him even a decent hitter. He is simply not getting the job done and this team is playing short handed right now. The Reds need production more than leadership while Votto is out.

It is not realistic to expect the pitchers to continue to perform as well as they did the first couple weeks of Votto's absence. This team needs to score more runs if they expect to stay in first place. The Reds are not going to continue to win 70% of their games with their superstar on the DL. If you have an opportunity to improve the team you take it.

The obvious solution here is to put Cairo on the DL until rosters expand September 1st and bring in another player that can contribute on the field for the next three weeks. A good GM should be able to find players that provide just as much leadership as Cairo or Valdez while also being able to play at a major league level on the field. The bar is low to upgrade the bench, so get it done Jocketty.

AtomicDumpling
08-11-2012, 04:39 PM
re: Cairo off the field, I think it was said definitively last year that he does steal signs and pick up on pitchers tipping pitches from the dugout.

True, and he doesn't need to be on the active roster to perform those duties. He can do those things just as well from the dugout while he is on the disabled list until September 1st.

Wonderful Monds
08-11-2012, 04:41 PM
True, but he doesn't need to be on the active roster to perform those duties. He can do those things just as well from the dugout while he is on the disabled list until September 1st.

Maybe not, but come October it would be nice to have every edge we can get on the league's best teams.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 04:43 PM
Hey, Walt the day after the season when we don't make the playoffs what am I supposed to say when asked about Cairo popping up with the bases loaded ending our season?

Well Bob, say that I think my team is a bunch of babies that couldn't deal with the concept of dumping a player that was costing each player a chance at their playoff shares.

That should sit well with everyone.
There's no doubt that wouldn't sit well. If the Reds slide to 2nd place, I'd expect to see a notable roster move. But no one has proved that Cairo is costing the team a chance at the playoffs. And even if someone has, I'd like to see who that person has in mind to replace Cairo to make the difference of a whole win or more over the rest of the year.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 04:45 PM
You're asking for data that proves his "locker room" ability can be replaced?

Do you have any "data" that proves he, in fact, has a positive effect on the locker room, and that the locker room would suffer greatly if he was replaced by a useful player?
Maybe you didn't read my post. I said his impact on the rest of the team is immeasurable. I didn't say he wasn't replaceable. I didn't say you shouldn't be replaced. I didn't say he won't be replaced.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 04:58 PM
Exactly. The notion that Cairo is worth more than 1 win with his savy clubhouse prescence is actually the one that should be providing some facts to back-up that claim, as it is counter intuitive to how difficult it is to gain value on the baseball field. It's a theory, that makes little sense. Who exaclty on the Reds is overachiveing so grossly that it seems likely that this conclusion should be drawn?
Who made that claim? It wasn't me. I only said the possibility exists.

By the way, Todd Frazier is hitting better than expected. Injury aside, Joey Votto is having a career year. Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young contender. Aroldis Chapman is better than ever. Ryan Ludwick's career is back on track. So is Jose Arredondo's. I can go on.

Is any of this because of Miguel Cairo? Well, definitely not solely. But I doubt he hurts the team with his intangibles, and he probably helps. But like I said multiple times, his value can't be measured (not now, at least). I'm not say the Reds should or shouldn't cut Cairo. I'm saying none of us know the impact he has on the team, and unless we know he brings, it makes no sense to clamor for cutting a bench guy without a replacement who would be a definite upgrade.

Patrick Bateman
08-11-2012, 05:06 PM
Who made that claim? It wasn't me. I only said the possibility exists.

There have been posters in this thread that have suggested that Cairo should be on the roster. That suggests that considering his "baseball contributions have been worth more than 1 negative win that his other contributions must be worth at minimum, the same, for that position to make sense.


By the way, Todd Frazier is hitting better than expected. Injury aside, Joey Votto is having a career year. Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young contender. Aroldis Chapman is better than ever. Ryan Ludwick's career is back on track. So is Jose Arredondo's. I can go on.

And what about the guys performing worse than expecations?


Is any of this because of Miguel Cairo? Well, definitely not solely. But I doubt he hurts the team with his intangibles, and he probably helps. But like I said multiple times, his value can't be measured (not now, at least). I'm not say the Reds should or shouldn't cut Cairo. I'm saying none of us know the impact he has on the team, and unless we know he brings, it makes no sense to clamor for cutting a bench guy without a replacement who would be a definite upgrade.

Exactly, at best, "he probably helps" with his intangibles. At this juncture, the Reds shouldn't be employing players who can't play baseball at the major league level because their intangibles "probably help" in some fashion.

PuffyPig
08-11-2012, 05:19 PM
By the way, Todd Frazier is hitting better than expected. Injury aside, Joey Votto is having a career year. Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young contender. Aroldis Chapman is better than ever. Ryan Ludwick's career is back on track. So is Jose Arredondo's. I can go on.

Is any of this because of Miguel Cairo? Well, definitely not solely. But I doubt he hurts the team with his intangibles, and he probably helps. But like I said multiple times, his value can't be measured (not now, at least). I'm not say the Reds should or shouldn't cut Cairo. I'm saying none of us know the impact he has on the team, and unless we know he brings, it makes no sense to clamor for cutting a bench guy without a replacement who would be a definite upgrade.

Based on that theory, no underachieving player should be ever cut becuase his intangible value cannot be measured.

Cairo's play this year has been as bad as I have ever seen. With Votto out aditional time, and Rolen banged up, having Cairo and Valdez as the sole options to play either 1B or 3B is embarrasing.

I can't imagine Cairo is having much fun out here. Time to do him a favour.

757690
08-11-2012, 05:43 PM
Based on that theory, no underachieving player should be ever cut becuase his intangible value cannot be measured.

Cairo's play this year has been as bad as I have ever seen. With Votto out aditional time, and Rolen banged up, having Cairo and Valdez as the sole options to play either 1B or 3B is embarrasing.

I can't imagine Cairo is having much fun out here. Time to do him a favour.

Immeasurable does not mean unknowable. It just means we can't put an exact number in it. But we can easily say this guy's intangibles are costing us games and needs to go, or is helping us win games.

I do agree that with Votto being out an additional week and Rolen injured, another bat is needed.

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 05:59 PM
Based on that theory, no underachieving player should be ever cut becuase his intangible value cannot be measured.

Cairo's play this year has been as bad as I have ever seen. With Votto out aditional time, and Rolen banged up, having Cairo and Valdez as the sole options to play either 1B or 3B is embarrasing.

I can't imagine Cairo is having much fun out here. Time to do him a favour.
Your logic is faulty. Just because a player has value as something doesn't mean he shouldn't be cut. It's not like Cairo is considered the only "intangibles" guy. Fwiw, if I were building the roster, I wouldn't touch Cairo with a 50-foot pole.

Raisor
08-11-2012, 06:33 PM
Its because he's scrappy isn't it?

marcshoe
08-11-2012, 06:45 PM
DL Cairo (it shouldn't be hard to find a reason, given his age and lack of performance) and sign Overbay or Branyan. That way you don't lose him in the clubhouse and you don't upset his teammates.

Raisor
08-11-2012, 08:38 PM
So who are the bad guys in the club house that Cairo is keeping in line by force of will?

camisadelgolf
08-11-2012, 08:52 PM
So who are the bad guys in the club house that Cairo is keeping in line by force of will?
Beats me. Maybe there's nobody like that right now. Maybe Cairo and his ability as a veteran--combined with being able to speak Spanish--helped Chapman blossom into who he is today. My argument is that we don't know, and we can't measure it right now. If Cairo's intangibles are so great, I'd rather have him as a coach. It's not feasible atm though.

marcshoe
08-11-2012, 10:06 PM
So who are the bad guys in the club house that Cairo is keeping in line by force of will?

Since I keep reading about how bad a manager Dusty is, I'm assuming that Cairo is secretly managing the team.

Seriously, though, if this is a concern (and who knows whether it really is--these guys are major leaguers and know what's what) it would be more about maintaining the best possible clubhouse environment than keeping any particular player under control. There are people whose presence tends to create a more peaceful environment.

Raisor
08-11-2012, 10:18 PM
Since I keep reading about how bad a manager Dusty is, I'm assuming that Cairo is secretly managing the team.

Seriously, though, if this is a concern (and who knows whether it really is--these guys are major leaguers and know what's what) it would be more about maintaining the best possible clubhouse environment than keeping any particular player under control. There are people whose presence tends to create a more peaceful environment.


Then it becomes an issue where you can't replace anyone on a first place team. Broxton should never have been brought in at the deadline.

PuffyPig
08-11-2012, 10:44 PM
Immeasurable does not mean unknowable. It just means we can't put an exact number in it.

If you can't measure it, how do you know it exists?

It might well be an old wives tale that Cairo is good in the locker room.

It really doesn't matter anyway, he is so bad on the field/batting that his locker room presence is pretty inconsequential.

757690
08-11-2012, 11:09 PM
If you can't measure it, how do you know it exists?

It might well be an old wives tale that Cairo is good in the locker room.

It really doesn't matter anyway, he is so bad on the field/batting that his locker room presence is pretty inconsequential.

I can't measure how beautiful Natalie Portman is, but I know she's beautiful. I can't measure how delicious Skyline is, but I know it's delicious. I can't measure how unfunny Dane Cook is, but I know he's a tool.

PuffyPig
08-11-2012, 11:16 PM
I can't measure how beautiful Natalie Portman is, but I know she's beautiful. I can't measure how delicious Skyline is, but I know it's delicious. I can't measure how unfunny Dane Cook is, but I know he's a tool.

Beauty is measured by sight.

Skyline is measured by taste.

Funny is meaured by hearing.

By defintion it is measurable by the senses.

Cairo's effect on team chemistry?

BTW, Natalie is cute, but certainly not beautiful. Skyline chili, like all chili, is disgusting. And Dane Cook is indeed funny.

Each is a matter of opinion. They are certainly not fact.

757690
08-11-2012, 11:23 PM
Beauty is measured by sight.

Skyline is measured by taste.

Funny is meaured by hearing.

By defintion it is measurable by the senses.

Cairo's effect on team chemistry?

BTW, Natalie is cute, but certainly not beautiful. Skyline chili, like all chili, is disgusting. And Dane Cook is indeed funny.

Each is a matter of opinion. They are certainly not fact.

Well, if you like Dane Cook, but not Skyline, and think Natalie Portman is just cute, no wonder you can't appreciate the intangibles of Cairo ;)

The senses don't define beauty, what tastes good or what's funny. If that were the case, then someone with 20/10 vision would understand beauty better then someone with 20/40 vision. And a deaf person wouldn't know what funny is.

The senses have nothing to do with understanding intangibles. And yes, because they are intangibles, they are not facts, but opinions. Doesn't make it any less meaningful.

PuffyPig
08-11-2012, 11:58 PM
Well, if you like Dane Cook, but not Skyline, and think Natalie Portman is just cute, no wonder you can't appreciate the intangibles of Cairo ;)

The senses don't define beauty, what tastes good or what's funny. If that were the case, then someone with 20/10 vision would understand beauty better then someone with 20/40 vision. And a deaf person wouldn't know what funny is.

The senses have nothing to do with understanding intangibles. And yes, because they are intangibles, they are not facts, but opinions. Doesn't make it any less meaningful.

It's fact that Cairo currently stinks beyond belief as a baseball player.

And I'm someone who's defended him in the past. But he no longer brings anything to the game.

Can anyone seriously suggest that Cairo should be playing 1B batting 7th in a major league lineup, much less a lineup fighting for a playoff spot?

camisadelgolf
08-12-2012, 12:06 AM
Okay, I give up. You guys are right. Team chemistry doesn't exist. Regardless of the intangibles on the team, the performance will be the same. Regardless of who's on the team, free agents will come here anyway. The players will undoubtedly be extended, too. Regardless of how the players are treated, they'll perform the same either way. Okay.

I mean seriously. I'm not saying Miguel Cairo is a good bench option. And honestly, I don't even know for sure that he's a good clubhouse guy even though it's his reputation. So how much does he help/hurt the team? I don't really know. But have you ever worked with other people to try to achieve the same goal? Chemistry matters. Is Miguel Cairo needed to finish in first? Probably not. But it's so difficult to find a worthwhile upgrade, and the bad things that could happen from releasing him just aren't worth it at the moment. A couple weeks from now, if Cairo hasn't improved with the Reds trailing in the standings, you can bet something will be done about it. But it's not like Jocketty or Castellini want to spend more money than they have to for a shot at the World Series.

He's the "25th man". How many divisions have been won because a team had a good 25th man? If they did, he probably wasn't even the 25th man. If the Reds don't win the division, it's going to be because the starting players didn't do enough. You won't point to Miguel Cairo and say, "Well, if they had just replaced Cairo with Russell Branyan or Henry Rodriguez, they would've won the division."

But I will say this: having both Miguel Cairo and Wilson Valdez on the same roster makes no sense to me.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2012, 12:18 AM
Okay, I give up. You guys are right. Team chemistry doesn't exist. Regardless of the intangibles on the team, the performance will be the same. Regardless of who's on the team, free agents will come here anyway. The players will undoubtedly be extended, too. Regardless of how the players are treated, they'll perform the same either way. Okay.

Again, we aren't arguing this.


He's the "25th man". How many divisions have been won because a team had a good 25th man? If they did, he probably wasn't even the 25th man. If the Reds don't win the division, it's going to be because the starting players didn't do enough. You won't point to Miguel Cairo and say, "Well, if they had just replaced Cairo with Russell Branyan or Henry Rodriguez, they would've won the division."

We're arguing that based on the fact we have essentially nothing to measure intangibles (unless a player is a complete mess like Elijah Dukes or Milton Bradley), that an end of the roster player like Cairo whom has essentially been the worst player in the majors this season based on measurable things, should not be gifted a roster spot because he supposedly has very good intangibles.

Look, if Cairo was performing like say, a replacement level player, maybe you could make the argument for intangibles. If he's replacement level, he's not really hurting the team from a statistical viewpoint because the alternatives are just as 'meh' as Cairo, and maybe it makes sense to have a veteran that fits the perceived mold of what the manager wants. But he's not performing like that, and it seems unreasonable to suggest that we should blindly accept intangibles for making up a 1.5 win difference in THIS specific case. As usual, I'm not completely ignoring the potential that intangibles exist, I'm just saying we shouldn't blindly assume they do, especially to the degree of production that Cairo has cost the team this season.

I'm not sure if a team has lost a season due to the 25th man, but if the Reds do this year by a game, this is one of a variety of ways that could have very easily been improved that could be the difference. The Reds aren't so elite that they shouldn't be open to the idea of improving upon a player that has displayed horrendous baseball skills.

camisadelgolf
08-12-2012, 12:22 AM
Again, we aren't arguing this.



We're arguing that based on the fact we have essentially nothing to measure intangibles (unless a player is a complete mess like Elijah Dukes or Milton Bradley), that an end of the roster player like Cairo whom has essentially been the worst player in the majors this season based on measurable things, should not be gifted a roster spot because he supposedly has very good intangibles.

Look, if Cairo was performing like say, a replacement level player, maybe you could make the argument for intangibles. If he's replacement level, he's not really hurting the team from a statistical viewpoint because the alternatives are just as 'meh' as Cairo, and maybe it makes sense to have a veteran that fits the perceived mold of what the manager wants. But he's not performing like that, and it seems unreasonable to suggest that we should blindly accept intangibles for making up a 1.5 win difference in THIS specific case. As usual, I'm not completely ignoring the potential that intangibles exist, I'm just saying we shouldn't blindly assume they do, especially to the degree of production that Cairo has cost the team this season.

I'm not sure if a team has lost a season due to the 25th man, but if the Reds do this year by a game, this is one of a variety of ways that could have very easily been improved that could be the difference. The Reds aren't so elite that they shouldn't be open to the idea of improving upon a player that has displayed horrendous baseball skills.
I agree with you. So who should the upgrade be?

PuffyPig
08-12-2012, 04:30 PM
I agree with you. So who should the upgrade be?

Votto. But until he returns, someone who can play 1B or 3B. I suggest a 1B would be the easiet to obtain. Overbay comes to mind.

I see Cairo just doubled and steals third with one out. We change our mind.......

camisadelgolf
08-12-2012, 05:59 PM
Votto. But until he returns, someone who can play 1B or 3B. I suggest a 1B would be the easiet to obtain. Overbay comes to mind.

I see Cairo just doubled and steals third with one out. We change our mind.......
Jocketty already said the Reds aren't interested in Overbay. I think Cairo is on a fairly long leash, but like I said, if his production stays as bad as it has been all year, I think they'll cut bait. If that happens, I'll throw another idea out there. What about Jose Lopez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezjo01.shtml), who was just released by the Indians?

PuffyPig
08-12-2012, 07:14 PM
Jocketty already said the Reds aren't interested in Overbay. I think Cairo is on a fairly long leash, but like I said, if his production stays as bad as it has been all year, I think they'll cut bait. If that happens, I'll throw another idea out there. What about Jose Lopez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezjo01.shtml), who was just released by the Indians?

I don't think we need another MI who can't hit much.

We need a 3B or 1B who can hit a bit.

I(heart)Freel
08-13-2012, 12:14 AM
This close to Sept roster expansion, Cairo's spot is safe. Whether he makes the (hopeful) playoff roster is another matter. I said in June that Billy Hamilton solely used as a pinch-runner serves this team more in the playoffs than Cairo or the last bullpen guy. I stand by that.