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View Full Version : W/L Stat used here in 2010 (eg: if the reds do this the pirates/cardinals need to..)



mroby85
08-12-2012, 09:12 PM
I just remember seeing this stat in 2010 and it made me feel better about the Reds odds of winning the division, I wonder if anyone knew those numbers for this season?

Back then it was something like
If the Reds go 20-15 the Cardinals have to go 26-9 or something like that.

jback76
08-12-2012, 09:25 PM
Just some quick calculations, if the Reds go 25-22 the rest of the way that would make them 94-68 which should be possible. The Pirates would have to go 30-18 to tie. The Cards would have to go 32-15 to tie. Do you feel any better?

HometownHero
08-12-2012, 09:58 PM
Remaining Games 47, Magic #'s 41 for Cardinals and 44 for Pirates

Projecting the Record
20-27 for 89 Wins to tie 27-20 for STL, 25-23 for PIT
21-26 for 90 Wins to tie 28-19 for STL, 26-22 for PIT
22-25 for 91 Wins to tie 29-18 for STL, 27-21 for PIT
23-24 for 92 Wins to tie 30-17 for STL, 28-20 for PIT
24-23 for 93 Wins to tie 31-16 for STL, 29-19 for PIT
25-22 for 94 Wins to tie 32-15 for STL, 30-18 for PIT
26-21 for 95 Wins to tie 33-14 for STL, 31-17 for PIT
27-20 for 96 Wins to tie 34-13 for STL, 32-16 for PIT
28-19 for 97 Wins to tie 35-12 for STL, 33-15 for PIT
29-18 for 98 Wins to tie 36-11 for STL, 34-14 for PIT
30-17 for 99 Wins to tie 37-10 for STL, 35-13 for PIT

mroby85
08-12-2012, 10:15 PM
Just some quick calculations, if the Reds go 25-22 the rest of the way that would make them 94-68 which should be possible. The Pirates would have to go 30-18 to tie. The Cards would have to go 32-15 to tie. Do you feel any better?

It does make me feel better, thank you lol.
I just remember seeing this stat a couple years ago and thought it seemed even more difficult than you would expect for a comeback with a 7 game lead.

Its tough for even a good team to go 32-15, and 25-22 is very doable, they could possibly even exceed that.

WDE
08-12-2012, 10:28 PM
I don't know if it's just me, but I really believe the Pirates and Cardinals will not just stop winning. I believe that going .500 or a bit over that the rest of the way will not get the division for us. We have to continue to play well because the Pirates and Cardinals have great teams this year, not to mention some easy schedules the rest of the way. Also, with the playoff format changing this year, winning a divison is a lot different than winning the Wild Card, so we would be in a lot better position for a playoff race if we could win the division.

webbbj
08-13-2012, 10:00 AM
i want to see the reds play well enough to get te best recod in the NL for home field advantaqge throughout.

texasdave
08-13-2012, 10:37 AM
Pittsburgh is 64-50 (.561). That makes them on pace to win 91 games.
St. Louis is 62-53 (.539). That makes them on pace to win 87 games.

The Reds are 69-46. To get to 92 wins they would have to go 23-24.

Who Dey Time
08-13-2012, 12:14 PM
i want to see the reds play well enough to get te best recod in the NL for home field advantaqge throughout.

Agreed but it stinks that they are utilizing a 2-3 format for the divisional round. To me, it gives the "better" team a disadvantage.

adampad
08-13-2012, 03:05 PM
That is a weird divisional format and you can argue that it gives the lower seed team a advantage. However one lucky team will get to play a wild card team that just used their best pitcher.

Captain13
08-13-2012, 03:15 PM
That is a weird divisional format and you can argue that it gives the lower seed team a advantage. However one lucky team will get to play a wild card team that just used their best pitcher.

That's what everyone is saying, but I don't think it's true. With the wildcard game being the day after the season, I think the teams will be forced to use the pitcher next in their rotation, as they will be competing for a spot in the playoffs and not able to set their rotation for a single playoff game.