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reds44
08-14-2012, 01:52 AM
Pirates have lost 7 of 11. Uh oh time in Yarrburgh?

Tom Servo
08-14-2012, 01:56 AM
Nationals with a modest 14 runs on 20 hits against the Giants tonight...and they still have runners on as well as another inning to go.

Screwball
08-14-2012, 02:13 AM
Nationals with a modest 14 runs on 20 hits against the Giants tonight...and they still have runners on as well as another inning to go.

Wow. And Vogelsong started this game too. His line:

2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER... ERA bumped up to 2.72. He was at 2.27 when the game started.

Including tonight, Nationals will have won 9 of 10, and sit at 72-44 overall. It'd be a tough series if the Reds ran into them in the playoffs (should they make it there, of course).

Nathan
08-14-2012, 05:41 AM
LOL.. The National League's ERA title is kryptonite this year. Every time someone gets it, they want to give it away. Sights set on Zimmermann now.

Wonderful Monds
08-14-2012, 05:52 AM
Wow. And Vogelsong started this game too. His line:

2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER... ERA bumped up to 2.72. He was at 2.27 when the game started.

Including tonight, Nationals will have won 9 of 10, and sit at 72-44 overall. It'd be a tough series if the Reds ran into them in the playoffs (should they make it there, of course).

Thank god they're shutting down Strasburg by then.



I mean I do like the move for the Reds sake, but now that I've brought it up, I hate it for baseball in general. That franchise hasn't had success in decades, and they're going to get rid of their hammer for the post season. Really a slap in the face to Nats fans and the game overall.

Gizmo
08-14-2012, 06:23 AM
Strasburg will pitch in the playoffs. They'd be silly not to. They should skip a start or 2 in the regular season if they're worried, there's cushion in the standings.

PuffyPig
08-14-2012, 06:24 AM
Thank god they're shutting down Strasburg by then.



I mean I do like the move for the Reds sake, but now that I've brought it up, I hate it for baseball in general. That franchise hasn't had success in decades, and they're going to get rid of their hammer for the post season. Really a slap in the face to Nats fans and the game overall.

IIRC, they are shutting him down now, so he will be available for the post season.

redsmetz
08-14-2012, 06:29 AM
Thank god they're shutting down Strasburg by then.

I mean I do like the move for the Reds sake, but now that I've brought it up, I hate it for baseball in general. That franchise hasn't had success in decades, and they're going to get rid of their hammer for the post season. Really a slap in the face to Nats fans and the game overall.

I was in DC over the weekend helping my son move to his new apartment. I had lunch with an acquaintance who is a huge baseball fan. He was of the mind that Strasburg will be shut down, period, play-offs or not. It's a long haul move that he perfectly understood. In his thinking, the Nats are a year ahead of where they expected to be, so this season is pure gravy. So he didn't see it that way at all. He was very much of the mind that you protect your investment for the long term. This season will handle itself.

cumberlandreds
08-14-2012, 08:15 AM
The last I heard about Strasburg is that they may extend him to 180 innings. I expect them to cut him back if they keep extending the lead. But in the end he will pitch in the playoffs.

traderumor
08-14-2012, 09:47 AM
I think the Strasburg shut down is chasing after the wind. It is just as likely that no matter what they do, he is going to have arm issues. It is a hard place for a franchise to be in, no doubt, a tough decision, but they're already waffling and increasing the limit as the season wears on. Also, if they shut him down, how is that going to affect his performance in the playoffs? He could be rusty, lacking command, and it could create more strain than if they had just spread out the innings more over the course of the season, which seems to be the more logical gameplan than what they have done. They could have skipped a start, given him more rest in the rotation, etc., rather than just using up the budget and having nothing left to spend.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-14-2012, 01:43 PM
Wow. And Vogelsong started this game too. His line:

2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER... ERA bumped up to 2.72. He was at 2.27 when the game started.

Including tonight, Nationals will have won 9 of 10, and sit at 72-44 overall. It'd be a tough series if the Reds ran into them in the playoffs (should they make it there, of course).

Unlike in 2010, the Reds should do everything possible to gain home field and avoid matching up with the Nats early in the post-season. And that means no vacations for starters after clinching the division.

Big Klu
08-14-2012, 01:53 PM
Unlike in 2010, the Reds should do everything possible to gain home field and avoid matching up with the Nats early in the post-season. And that means no vacations for starters after clinching the division.

If the Reds and Nationals both win their respective divisions, the only way they will play each other in the NLDS is if the NL West champion finishes with the best record in the NL.

traderumor
08-14-2012, 01:56 PM
I was in DC over the weekend helping my son move to his new apartment. I had lunch with an acquaintance who is a huge baseball fan. He was of the mind that Strasburg will be shut down, period, play-offs or not. It's a long haul move that he perfectly understood. In his thinking, the Nats are a year ahead of where they expected to be, so this season is pure gravy. So he didn't see it that way at all. He was very much of the mind that you protect your investment for the long term. This season will handle itself.A lot of presumption that you will win when you expect to. A bit of arrogance also. "Man, this is only the beginning." See Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Cubs, set for years core, cupboard now bare. I'd say the Nats are negligent for not putting the brakes on "spending" of innings earlier in the season. Also the waffling on the innings limit when the rubber meets the road shows a possible inability to stick to a gameplan.

Are they the 1991 Braves, on the cusp of a decade of greatness with a stable of starting pitchers, or are they the 21st Century Cubs as alluded to above?

Dan
08-14-2012, 02:01 PM
Unlike in 2010, the Reds should do everything possible to gain home field and avoid matching up with the Nats early in the post-season. And that means no vacations for starters after clinching the division.

I've been thinking about matchups too, and you're right. But the Reds would then likely face San Fran or LA. They don't play well in big ballparks, so again, the home field advantage is really needed. Best scenario has the Reds finishing with the best record and playing the Braves in the NLDS. Let Washington make the trip out west.

Brutus
08-14-2012, 04:18 PM
Strasburg will pitch in the playoffs. They'd be silly not to. They should skip a start or 2 in the regular season if they're worried, there's cushion in the standings.

They and everyone close to them have said repeatedly and since the beginning of the season he will be shut down at some point. It's just a matter of when.

I don't think it's any longer a matter of if. It's more a matter of when. He won't make it to the playoffs. It's hard to say if he'll make it through September.

oneupper
08-14-2012, 04:30 PM
I've been thinking about matchups too, and you're right. But the Reds would then likely face San Fran or LA. They don't play well in big ballparks, so again, the home field advantage is really needed. Best scenario has the Reds finishing with the best record and playing the Braves in the NLDS. Let Washington make the trip out west.

Playoffs??

Playoffs??? The Sound Byte - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk)

Brutus
08-14-2012, 11:39 PM
Dodgers up 9-0 on the Pirates in the 9th.

Vottomatic
08-14-2012, 11:40 PM
Beat me to it. Dodgers were up 6-0 going into the 9th. Kemp knocks in one run and Ethier knocks in 2 more runs. Second and third, still only 1 out.

oregonred
08-14-2012, 11:41 PM
The newly bought Dodgers are getting a bit scary again.

6 up with 46 left.

Vottomatic
08-14-2012, 11:52 PM
Cards pouring it on in the 8th. 8-2 now.

Homer Bailey
08-15-2012, 01:31 AM
Nats trail 2-1 in the 8th against SF.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 10:12 AM
The newly bought Dodgers are getting a bit scary again.

6 up with 46 left.

We are currently 7 up on the 2nd place Cards.

The Pirates no longer matter.

_Sir_Charles_
08-15-2012, 10:21 AM
We are currently 7 up on the 2nd place Cards.

The Pirates no longer matter.

Why? Because they're slumping? They were due for a slump. So were we (5 game losing streak) So are the Cards (hasn't hit them yet). I've heard people say "if the cards get hot...watch out"...but what they're not realizing is that they've BEEN hot. And lost ground. The only team I'm worried about even a little...are the Reds. If we take care of business, it's wrapped up. It's a big "if" though.

dougdirt
08-15-2012, 10:30 AM
We are currently 7 up on the 2nd place Cards.

The Pirates no longer matter.

The Pirates have a better record than the Cardinals. If they don't matter, then neither do the Cardinals. For now, since our magic number isn't 0, I say that both matter.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 11:06 AM
The Pirates have a better record than the Cardinals. If they don't matter, then neither do the Cardinals. For now, since our magic number isn't 0, I say that both matter.


The Cards are light years better than the Pirates.

The Pirates don't matter for that reason.

Sea Ray
08-15-2012, 11:23 AM
The last I heard about Strasburg is that they may extend him to 180 innings. I expect them to cut him back if they keep extending the lead. But in the end he will pitch in the playoffs.

The Nats have been clear. It's not just innings; it's length of time, thus they will not back his innings off now so he can pitch in the playoffs. They don't want his season extending into a 7th month regardless of innings

Kc61
08-15-2012, 11:24 AM
The Cards are light years better than the Pirates.

The Pirates don't matter for that reason.

Pirates play Brewers, Mets, Cubs, Astros in September. And Reds. That's it.

If they make it to September in striking distance, they'll matter. However, they may not make it to September in striking distance. Tough schedule for them in late August.

dougdirt
08-15-2012, 11:29 AM
The Cards are light years better than the Pirates.

The Pirates don't matter for that reason.

Having better talent doesn't always lead to more wins. It should, but it doesn't always work out that way. Until the Cardinals have a better record than the Pirates do, it is silly to suggest that the team with the worse record of the two matters while the one with the better record doesn't. This isn't April, it is August. At this point the record speaks for itself.

bucksfan2
08-15-2012, 11:39 AM
Pirates play Brewers, Mets, Cubs, Astros in September. And Reds. That's it.

If they make it to September in striking distance, they'll matter. However, they may not make it to September in striking distance. Tough schedule for them in late August.

Cubs and the AAAstros are awful. But as we saw the Brewers can beat you as well as the Mets. The problem becomes in September if your pressing the game gets more and more difficult.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 11:39 AM
Having better talent doesn't always lead to more wins. It should, but it doesn't always work out that way. Until the Cardinals have a better record than the Pirates do, it is silly to suggest that the team with the worse record of the two matters while the one with the better record doesn't. This isn't April, it is August. At this point the record speaks for itself.


The Pirates have gone as far as good luck will take them.

They are a fairly good team, with a +21 run differential, but not an elite team.

Their starting pitching is regressing badly.

I expect they will end up with about 87 wins.

When the Pirates play the Cards this weekend, I'm hoping for the Pirates, even if they are closer in the standings. I truly believe the Cards are the real threat.

WildcatFan
08-15-2012, 12:05 PM
When the Pirates play the Cards this weekend, I'm hoping for the Pirates, even if they are closer in the standings. I truly believe the Cards are the real threat.

I think I'm with you here. Pittsburgh taking 2 games would be ideal.

Kc61
08-15-2012, 04:03 PM
Cubs and the AAAstros are awful. But as we saw the Brewers can beat you as well as the Mets. The problem becomes in September if your pressing the game gets more and more difficult.

Brewers have huge home/road differential, they can beat you at home, they are bad on the road. Pirates have 6 with Brewers in Pitt, 3 in Mil.

Pirates play Mets four in NYC, although Mets are pretty much the same home and road.

We can debate anything here, but on paper the Pirates have the easiest possible schedule for September one could expect - in terms of teams they play. Excluding six with the Reds.

Pirates do have 16 road games in September, 12 home games. That helps matters for the Reds since the Bucs don't win as often on the road. Reds, on the other hand, while playing some tougher teams, have 15 home games in Sept. and only 11 road games.

Reds also have four open days in September, very helpful. Pirates have only two open days relatively early in the month. From September 14 on out, the Pirates play every day.

Big thing with Cards is that they have seven with the Nats from late August through September and they also have seven on the west coast (3 Pads, 4 L.A.).

WildcatFan
08-15-2012, 04:08 PM
Brewers have huge home/road differential, they can beat you at home, they are bad on the road. Pirates have 6 with Brewers in Pitt, 3 in Mil.

Pirates play Mets four in NYC, although Mets are pretty much the same home and road.

We can debate anything here, but on paper the Pirates have the easiest possible schedule for September one could expect - in terms of teams they play. Excluding six with the Reds.

Pirates do have 16 road games in September, 12 home games. That helps matters for the Reds since the Bucs don't win as often on the road. Reds, on the other hand, while playing some tougher teams, have 15 home games in Sept. and only 11 road games.

Reds also have four open days in September, very helpful. Pirates have only two open days relatively early in the month. From September 14 on out, the Pirates play every day.

Big thing with Cards is that they have seven with the Nats from late August through September and they also have seven on the west coast (3 Pads, 4 L.A.).

Getting an early start on your 10-game capsule?

Seriously, you're the king at summarizing.

Kc61
08-15-2012, 04:09 PM
Getting an early start on your 10-game capsule?

Seriously, you're the king at summarizing.

It will be 11 games this time. LOL, the Reds and the league messed me up with that doubleheader Saturday.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 08:37 PM
Pirates down 1-0 early, Walker went down , looked like a jammed (or even a broken) wrist. Potentially a huge blow.

Edit: Rotoworld is saying a dislocated finger. And it's 1-1 now.

Homer Bailey
08-15-2012, 10:15 PM
Pirates down 7-2. Cardinals down 1-0.

Matt700wlw
08-15-2012, 10:31 PM
Fade away Buccos....fade away....

Homer Bailey
08-15-2012, 10:33 PM
http://luekensliquors.com/store/images/7upLogo.jpg

Tom Servo
08-15-2012, 10:49 PM
D'Backs had 1st and 3rd with no outs, and Goldschmidt GIDP. 3-2 game.

WVRedsFan
08-15-2012, 11:58 PM
Cardinals now tied with the Pirates for second place - 7 games out. Cardinals have won 6 of then and the Pirates have lost 7 of 10. It may all come down to that last two weeks when the Reds play both teams at season's end.

MikeThierry
08-16-2012, 12:11 AM
Cardinals now tied with the Pirates for second place - 7 games out. Cardinals have won 6 of then and the Pirates have lost 7 of 10. It may all come down to that last two weeks when the Reds play both teams at season's end.

Also there's a three teams that qualify for a Wild Card spot. It may have been covered here but what happens if the Braves, Cards, and Pirates are all tied at the end of the year for the wild card spots? Does it go off of record or is there a one game playoff to see who gets the second wild card spot?

vaticanplum
08-16-2012, 12:53 AM
Also there's a three teams that qualify for a Wild Card spot. It may have been covered here but what happens if the Braves, Cards, and Pirates are all tied at the end of the year for the wild card spots? Does it go off of record or is there a one game playoff to see who gets the second wild card spot?

Oh my lord. I don't have an answer for that but I just want to reiterate that I absolutely hate this new wild card setup.

MikeThierry
08-16-2012, 12:58 AM
Oh my lord. I don't have an answer for that but I just want to reiterate that I absolutely hate this new wild card setup.

I love it because until this rule was put in place, Wild Card teams did not have a distinct disadvantage going into the Divisional Series. The Wild Card team could theoretically match their ace up with the ace of the team who has the best record in the league. Now, the two wild card teams will be forced to burn their best pitcher (theoretically speaking of course). Not to mention if it's a long, protracted game it will force the Wild Card team to burn their bullpen. This will put the eventual Wild Card winner at a disadvantage when they play in the Divisional Series. I would love to see this expanded to a regular, 3 game season series but at least it's a start.

Plus Plus
08-16-2012, 01:03 AM
I'm not a fan of the new playoff system, and the biggest reason is that the new 2-3 format in the first round kind of puts the better team at a disadvantage in the first round. Potentially going on the road to Los Angeles (if the season ended today) for the first two games of a first-to-three series seems really ill-conceived.

vaticanplum
08-16-2012, 01:04 AM
I love it because until this rule was put in place, Wild Card teams did not have a distinct disadvantage going into the Divisional Series. The Wild Card team could theoretically match their ace up with the ace of the team who has the best record in the league. Now, the two wild card teams will be forced to burn their best pitcher (theoretically speaking of course). Not to mention if it's a long, protracted game it will force the Wild Card team to burn their bullpen. This will put the eventual Wild Card winner at a disadvantage when they play in the Divisional Series. I would love to see this expanded to a regular, 3 game season series but at least it's a start.

That's a good point. I hadn't thought of it from that angle. I have traditionally thought that matching up with the team with the best record was competition enough...but actually, with the "can't play a team in your own division" rule now apparently disposed of, this too may be more of a factor now than it used to be.

I have just been feeling like the WC team is being deprived of the position it has earned. But I guess if you're coming from the perspective that, having not won the division, it has to work that much harder to earn it, this does make sense. Ok. I am reversing my position and withholding judgment. If I see a lot of boring baseball in the first round due to burned-out teams, though, this new setup and I are through.

vaticanplum
08-16-2012, 01:05 AM
I'm not a fan of the new playoff system, and the biggest reason is that the new 2-3 format in the first round kind of puts the better team at a disadvantage in the first round. Potentially going on the road to Los Angeles (if the season ended today) for the first two games of a first-to-three series seems really ill-conceived.

But that is a fluke for just this year, right?

I'm sorry; I haven't quite wrapped my head around this new system yet.

MikeThierry
08-16-2012, 01:12 AM
I think we're going to have to wait and see how it really plays out. I theoretically like the new system but it could turn out completely different when the game is actually played.

Wonderful Monds
08-16-2012, 02:58 AM
I think we're going to have to wait and see how it really plays out. I theoretically like the new system but it could turn out completely different when the game is actually played.
It really needed to be a series. No major outcome in baseball should be decided by a single game. Best of 3 series, at the bare minimum.

fearofpopvol1
08-16-2012, 03:18 AM
It really needed to be a series. No major outcome in baseball should be decided by a single game. Best of 3 series, at the bare minimum.

I agree 100% with this.

Brutus
08-16-2012, 03:36 AM
It really needed to be a series. No major outcome in baseball should be decided by a single game. Best of 3 series, at the bare minimum.

Making it only one game is what makes winning the division of the utmost importance to begin with. That was the intent... to create an extra spot but simultaneously increase the reward for winning your division.

I love this format. Absolutely love it... provided they go back to the best teams hosting the opening game and then I'd still like to see fewer days off during the playoffs to force teams to use at least four guys in a rotation.

mth123
08-16-2012, 06:27 AM
Why? Because they're slumping? They were due for a slump. So were we (5 game losing streak) So are the Cards (hasn't hit them yet). I've heard people say "if the cards get hot...watch out"...but what they're not realizing is that they've BEEN hot. And lost ground. The only team I'm worried about even a little...are the Reds. If we take care of business, it's wrapped up. It's a big "if" though.

I'm generally considered a pessimist on here, but I like to think of it as realizing that what is realistically likely to happen is different than what we hope will happen. That said, consider the following:

The Reds have won 71 games with 45 to play. If the Reds go a ho hum 23 and 22 the rest of the way, they'll finish with 94 wins. For the Cards or Bucs to catch them, they would need to go 30 and 15. Not impossible and its not wrapped up, but, as far as the Division goes, the Reds only need to worry about keeping it going at a reasonable pace and staying healthy. Winning 2 of 3 for nearly a 3rd of the season is a pretty tall order for a Pirate team that has some arms fading and just lost a key player (with no obvious depth at his spot) or the Cards without Carpenter and Berkman and Garcia a big question mark at this point. If the Reds go 24 and 21 (a reasonable .533 winning percentage) even winning 2 of 3 the rest of the year won't be enough for the Pirates or Cards to catch them.

The Reds will be getting Votto, Masset and Bray back in the next couple of weeks. More PT for Frazier at 3B should help to keep Rolen healthy and more productive. What is realistically likely to happen is that the Reds can play their game without worrying too much about the scoreboard. They'd be better off concerning themsleves with how to add a guy who can help against a team that lines up some pretty good RH starters against them in the play-offs. I'm still hoping they can land a LH guy to share CF and hit at the top of the order between now and August 31.

Chip R
08-16-2012, 10:18 AM
Also there's a three teams that qualify for a Wild Card spot. It may have been covered here but what happens if the Braves, Cards, and Pirates are all tied at the end of the year for the wild card spots? Does it go off of record or is there a one game playoff to see who gets the second wild card spot?

Wiki says it would be a two game playoff between the three teams.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_tie-breaking_procedures

WildcatFan
08-16-2012, 11:42 AM
But that is a fluke for just this year, right?

I'm sorry; I haven't quite wrapped my head around this new system yet.

That's how I understand it, because the season ends later this year than usual. Pretty sure it goes to a 2-2-1 format beginning next year. Although I'd take a couple extra November games to get rid of that 2-3 this year. There's a chance it's gonna affect Cincinnati.

Does anybody know of a definitive guide to the new playoffs?

traderumor
08-16-2012, 05:41 PM
Angel Campos latest ump under fire. Kemp and Mattingly tossed in the second after a bunch of dugout grumbling, both freaking out.

Pirates up 3-0, looks like they might have things going their way today (all jinx intended).

marcshoe
08-16-2012, 06:16 PM
Dodgers up 4-3 over Pirates on a 2 run Homer by Hanley in the 4th.

traderumor
08-16-2012, 06:17 PM
Dodgers up 4-3 over Pirates on a 2 run Homer by Hamlet in the fourth.My jinx worked.

marcshoe
08-16-2012, 06:18 PM
My jinx worked.

First Shakespearean character to hit one out this year. So says autocorrect.

marcshoe
08-16-2012, 06:29 PM
Barmes triples home Barajas. 4-4. Rooting for the Dodgers just feels wrong.

Tom Servo
08-16-2012, 06:29 PM
Blanton walks Barajas on 4 pitches and then gives up a triple to Barmes.


Blanton sucks. :(

Homer Bailey
08-16-2012, 06:43 PM
First Shakespearean character to hit one out this year. So says autocorrect.

I laughed out loud.

(I didn't think LOL would do this post justice).

Homer Bailey
08-16-2012, 06:53 PM
Wow. It's 8-4 now.

Tom Servo
08-16-2012, 06:53 PM
Blanton sucks. :(

PuffyPig
08-16-2012, 07:28 PM
8-6 now, Burnett leaves with 2 outs and the bases loaded, top of 7.

Homer Bailey
08-16-2012, 07:42 PM
10-6.

Kc61
08-16-2012, 10:49 PM
DBacks and Cards underway. Will Kyle Lohse continue his fabulous year, or will he regress to the mean? Nothing for Arizona in the first.

Cards up 1-0 heading for the 8th. Lohse continued his fabulous year, but is out of the game now.

DBacks go down quietly in the eighth. So far, Arizona hasn't brough its A game to Busch Stadium this week, to the Reds' detriment.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 01:14 AM
Ninth inning back to back homers for the DBacks put them ahead of the Cards. Goldschmidt and Young.

vaticanplum
08-17-2012, 01:23 AM
I did not realize we have FOUR games with the Cubs this weekend. Let's win all of them. This could be a fun (significant) few days with St. Louis and Pittsburgh duking it out.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 01:32 AM
Cards blow a ninth inning lead to the DBacks who win 2-1. Big loss for the Cards who fall to third place, 7 out, and lose opportunity to gain a game on Reds.

Now the Cards play the Bucs three games and the Reds play four with the Cubs.

Cards have a very tough schedule the rest of the way, this one hurts them. I'll be rooting for the Cards to take two of three from the Pirates. And rooting for the Reds to sweep the Cubs this weekend.

WVRedsFan
08-17-2012, 01:33 AM
DBacks lead Cards going into the bottom of the 9th:
J.J. Putz pitching for Arizona

Freese fans.
Descalso lines to left. Two out
Furcal flies to center. DBacks win

Cards fall 7 behind the Reds.

PuffyPig
08-17-2012, 01:41 AM
Cards blow a ninth inning lead to the DBacks who win 2-1. Big loss for the Cards who fall to third place, 7 out, and lose opportunity to gain a game on Reds.

Now the Cards play the Bucs three games and the Reds play four with the Cubs.

Cards have a very tough schedule the rest of the way, this one hurts them. I'll be rooting for the Cards to take two of three from the Pirates. And rooting for the Reds to sweep the Cubs this weekend.

I'm hoping the Pirates sweep the Cards.

WVRedsFan
08-17-2012, 01:42 AM
Cards blow a ninth inning lead to the DBacks who win 2-1. Big loss for the Cards who fall to third place, 7 out, and lose opportunity to gain a game on Reds.

Now the Cards play the Bucs three games and the Reds play four with the Cubs.

Cards have a very tough schedule the rest of the way, this one hurts them. I'll be rooting for the Cards to take two of three from the Pirates. And rooting for the Reds to sweep the Cubs this weekend.I doubt we'll sweep, but we might win 3 of 4, which is good enough. I expect the Cardinals to abuse McDonald tomorrow night and take two of three. If my scenario happens, the Reds will lead the Bucs and (insert Mike Shannon voice here) Redbirds by 8 games. Just a little slice of heaven.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 01:49 AM
I'm hoping the Pirates sweep the Cards.

I suggest you re-consider. Reds fans should root for the Cards to win two of three.

The Cards loss tonight is crushing. The Cards chances are dwindling when you consider the schedule.

The Cards have a murderous schedule. They play the Nats seven times in August and September. Four in DC. They play four in LA and seven on the coast altogether. They play six with the Reds.

The Pirates have the easiest schedule of any contender beginning September 1. They play no contenders in September except six with Cincinnati.

The Pirates are not as good a team as the Cards, but they have a much more favorable schedule of opponents in September. So I'll be rooting for the Cards to win two of three this weekend.

vaticanplum
08-17-2012, 01:55 AM
The Pirates have the easiest schedule of any contender beginning September 1. They play no contenders in September except six with Cincinnati.

Well, they close the season against the Braves. But your point is well taken regardless.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 02:05 AM
Well, they close the season against the Braves. But your point is well taken regardless.

Cards finish with Nats and Reds.
Bucs finish with the Reds and Braves.
Reds finish with Bucs and Cards on the road.

All the teams finish with tough games.

But the Pirates do have a September advantage, although many of the games are on the road for them.

Reds have a tough stretch coming up after this weekend series with the Cubbies.

Cards have soms Astros games left, but overall have the toughest schedule of opponents from here on out.

WVRedsFan
08-17-2012, 02:09 AM
I suggest you re-consider. Reds fans should root for the Cards to win two of three.

The Cards loss tonight is crushing. The Cards chances are dwindling when you consider the schedule.

The Cards have a murderous schedule. They play the Nats seven times in August and September. Four in DC. They play four in LA and seven on the coast altogether. They play six with the Reds.

The Pirates have the easiest schedule of any contender beginning September 1. They play no contenders in September except six with Cincinnati.

The Pirates are not as good a team as the Cards, but they have a much more favorable schedule of opponents in September. So I'll be rooting for the Cards to win two of three this weekend.Two of us. Everyone is waiting for the Pirates to self destruct. It's not going to happen. They will be decent the rest of the season. If the Cardinals win two of three and we win three of four, the net gain is two over the Pirates and one over the Cardinals. Only if we split the Cubs series, will we see minimal gain in theis scenario--7 games over each.

Boss-Hog
08-17-2012, 07:06 AM
Two of us. Everyone is waiting for the Pirates to self destruct. It's not going to happen. They will be decent the rest of the season. If the Cardinals win two of three and we win three of four, the net gain is two over the Pirates and one over the Cardinals. Only if we split the Cubs series, will we see minimal gain in theis scenario--7 games over each.

That would be 1.5 over Pittsburgh and 0.5 over St. Louis.

PuffyPig
08-17-2012, 08:00 AM
Everyone is waiting for the Pirates to self destruct. It's not going to happen. They will be decent the rest of the season.

I think the Pirates have already begun to self destruct. It wasn't that long ago they were laeding us by 2 or so games, now they are 6 behind.

Time will tell I guess.

One thing I'm absolutely sure about. If one of the Pirates or the Cards is capable of running off a 16-4 stretch, it's not the Pirates.

WVRedsFan
08-17-2012, 10:19 AM
That would be 1.5 over Pittsburgh and 0.5 over St. Louis.Ah, math. My downfall

cumberlandreds
08-17-2012, 10:27 AM
Ah, math. My downfall

I take Chris Welsh's advice;Never do math in public. :)

MikeThierry
08-17-2012, 01:11 PM
I doubt we'll sweep, but we might win 3 of 4, which is good enough. I expect the Cardinals to abuse McDonald tomorrow night and take two of three. If my scenario happens, the Reds will lead the Bucs and (insert Mike Shannon voice here) Redbirds by 8 games. Just a little slice of heaven.

hehe thanks for showing Old Irish some love here. I love that dude. No, he's not the most polished voice on the air but always a good time to listen to him.

traderumor
08-17-2012, 02:04 PM
I might join Pete in betting on baseball. The Reds only have to split with the Cubs this weekend for me to have nailed my prediction on where the Reds would be as of Sunday. I think the Pirates will be a game or two off the pace due to the bad homestand, whereas if the Cards take 2 of 3, I think I'm right on them as well.

BTW, as of Wednesday, with 46 to play, I calculated the Reds at 24-22. That's probably a little conservative, did not include any sweep and a few home series losses. That will get them to 95 wins and the Pirates or Cards would have to be smoking the rest of the way to catch us even at that modest pace. And I think that is very modest with the consideration of having Votto for all of September.

cincrazy
08-17-2012, 05:30 PM
I might join Pete in betting on baseball. The Reds only have to split with the Cubs this weekend for me to have nailed my prediction on where the Reds would be as of Sunday. I think the Pirates will be a game or two off the pace due to the bad homestand, whereas if the Cards take 2 of 3, I think I'm right on them as well.

BTW, as of Wednesday, with 46 to play, I calculated the Reds at 24-22. That's probably a little conservative, did not include any sweep and a few home series losses. That will get them to 95 wins and the Pirates or Cards would have to be smoking the rest of the way to catch us even at that modest pace. And I think that is very modest with the consideration of having Votto for all of September.

Wow. Under that scenario, the Cards would need to go 31-14 to catch us, the Pirates 30-15.

traderumor
08-17-2012, 06:00 PM
There has been much hand wringing about the last two series on the road against our rivals. That is the bad news. The good news is that those rivals are playing the top 2 dogs in the East when they're not playing us that week.

But anyhow, I projected out the standings with one week to go based on predictions of the remaining schedule.


Reds 94-62 after 23-15 stretch
Cards 88-68, going 24-14 despite a tough schedule, but still 6 out with 6 to play. That the final weekend series could be the Reds chance to boot them out of the WC is more likely than being meaningful for the division crown. The Reds should have clinched by then, at Pittsburgh.
Pirates 85-71 after 20-18 run, nine out, will be playing for their playoff life when we roll into town.


After we go 2-4 that last two series, we end up 96-66.
The Cards win their last two series for 92-70 and a WC spot.
The Pirates split their last six, end up 88-74, finish 4 games behind the Cards for the last playoff spot. The Braves go 27-17 and tie the Reds with a 96-66 record to take the first WC spot.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 11:06 PM
Pirates 2-0 over Cards bottom seven, Cards man on first no outs.

David Freese doubles. Second and third, no outs, for the Cards.

One out, fly ball, runners hold.

Tony Cruz up. Resop pitching. RBI grounder. 2-1 ballgame.

Pitching change. Furcal due.

So, 2-1 Bucs bottom seven Cards still batting with a man on third.

2-1 Bucs headed to the 8th.

2-1 Bucs final.

cumberlandreds
08-18-2012, 12:03 AM
Down go the Cardinals. 2-1 Pirate win. Reds stay 6 up on the Bucs. Now 8 up on the Cards.
If the Reds sweep tomorrow they would gain on both teams and could really stretch out the lead.

Kc61
08-18-2012, 05:31 PM
Cards lead Pirates 1-0 bottom two in the Saturday game.

Chip R
08-18-2012, 06:16 PM
Seems a lot quieter in StL this year. More playing and less whining. Wonder why that is? :D

Kc61
08-18-2012, 06:22 PM
1-1 Pirates and Cards mid-4 as Lance Lynn pitches out of bases loaded difficulty in the fourth.

Vottomatic
08-18-2012, 06:25 PM
1-1 Pirates and Cards mid-4 as Lance Lynn pitches out of bases loaded difficulty in the fourth.

Ah Lance Lynn. Fred must be proud. :p

Kc61
08-18-2012, 06:29 PM
Molina doubles, second and third, no outs for the Cards in the fourth. Bottom of order coming up though.

Double by Robinson results in two Cards runs. 3-1 Cards, man on second. 3-1 after four.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:09 PM
Tied up in St. Louis, 2-2 at the bottom of the seventh.

Degenerate39
08-19-2012, 05:10 PM
Let's go Pirates

Kc61
08-19-2012, 05:18 PM
Let's go Pirates

No, no, no. Let's get up 7.5 games. Go Cards.

Well, to each his own, but I'm rooting Cards today.

Vottomatic
08-19-2012, 05:20 PM
I'd rather the Pirates win today. I want the Cards to go away.

Vottomatic
08-19-2012, 05:20 PM
Headed to the bottom of the 8th and the Cardinals batting. Tied 2-2.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:22 PM
I'm just happy nobody's going to sweep that series. Let them duke it out and maintain an even-ish distance back. The Reds are still winning; that's the most important thing.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 05:22 PM
The Pirates are a good team, but I don't think they have enough in them to catch the Reds. I still think the Cardinals could. So I'm passively rooting for Pittsburgh today. I'm not sure I can ever actively root for the Cardinals even with a gun to my head, so it probably wouldn't matter. But I think I prefer Pittsburgh winning.

Kc61
08-19-2012, 05:29 PM
The Pirates are a good team, but I don't think they have enough in them to catch the Reds. I still think the Cardinals could. So I'm passively rooting for Pittsburgh today. I'm not sure I can ever actively root for the Cardinals even with a gun to my head, so it probably wouldn't matter. But I think I prefer Pittsburgh winning.

Tired of arguing why the schedule indicates Reds fans should favor Cards today. Thankfully the Pitt-StL series is over today.

After this, the Reds play three tough series. At Philly, home with Cards, at DBacks. Then at Houston.

After today, the Cards play three at home with Houston. Then three at Cincy, three at Pittsburgh, four at Washington DC.

After today, the Pirates play three in San Diego. Then they play three home with Milwaukee, three home with Cards, three road at Milwaukee.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 05:30 PM
I didn't feel like starting a thread for this, but does anyone else think that the Rays are going to wind up catching the Yankees? They're 10-2 since Longoria returned and with that pitching, they are now a totally different team with him in the lineup.

If I'm the Yankees, I would be feeling a little nervous right now.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 05:31 PM
Tired of arguing why the schedule indicates Reds fans should favor Cards today. Thankfully the Pitt-StL series is over today.

After this, the Reds play three tough series. At Philly, home with Cards, at DBacks. Then at Houston.

After today, the Cards play three at home with Houston. Then three at Cincy, three at Pittsburgh, four at Washington DC.

After today, the Pirates play three in San Diego. Then they play three home with Milwaukee, three home with Cards, three road at Milwaukee.

The schedule matters, but it isn't everything. If someone feels St. Louis is simply a better team than Pittsburgh, then the difference in schedules might be negligible. I'd rather root against the team I feel is simply better, schedules aside. I think the Cards are a better team than Pittsburgh, so the schedule doesn't concern me.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:33 PM
Tired of arguing why the schedule indicates Reds fans should favor Cards today. Thankfully the Pitt-StL series is over today.

After this, the Reds play three tough series. At Philly, home with Cards, at DBacks. Then at Houston.

After today, the Cards play three at home with Houston. Then three at Cincy, three at Pittsburgh, four at Washington DC.

After today, the Pirates play three in San Diego. Then they play three home with Milwaukee, three home with Cards, three road at Milwaukee.

We've been over the schedules quite a bit. People can be scared of things other than the schedule as well. In truth, either of these teams has a lot of work to do to catch the Reds, as long as the Reds don't fall apart. That's the most important thing, that they keep it together.

Kc61
08-19-2012, 05:33 PM
The schedule matters, but it isn't everything. If someone feels St. Louis is simply a better team than Pittsburgh, then the difference in schedules might be negligible. I'd rather root against the team I feel is simply better, schedules aside. I think the Cards are a better team than Pittsburgh, so the schedule doesn't concern me.

Like I said, to each his own. Tired of arguing about this. I see a huge scheduling difference, I think the Cards chances are very remote, but others disagree, so be it.

Bottom nine, Cards coming up in a 2-2 tie with Bucs.

Gizmo
08-19-2012, 05:35 PM
I'm rooting for whatever helps the Reds. Today that would be a Cardinals win, next time they play that could be the Pirates. Would love to see the division wrapped up mid September and only be playing for home field throughout than playing for our lives the last weekend.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:35 PM
I didn't feel like starting a thread for this, but does anyone else think that the Rays are going to wind up catching the Yankees? They're 10-2 since Longoria returned and with that pitching, they are now a totally different team with him in the lineup.

If I'm the Yankees, I would be feeling a little nervous right now.

I don't think the Yankees should get comfortable (they never do), but I doubt the Rays can catch them. I don't think the Rays will keep up that pace, and the Yankees tend to get stronger in September.

The one thing that could shake things up is that fact that they have six more games against each other. If Tampa sweeps even once, things could get interesting.

Tom Servo
08-19-2012, 05:37 PM
I didn't feel like starting a thread for this, but does anyone else think that the Rays are going to wind up catching the Yankees? They're 10-2 since Longoria returned and with that pitching, they are now a totally different team with him in the lineup.

If I'm the Yankees, I would be feeling a little nervous right now.
It's certainly possible. Boy would it be nice to see the Rays win that division and the A's to sneak up and win the West, just to mess with people. :D

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:37 PM
Bottom of the ninth and Correia is still pitching, btw. If I were a Pirates fan, the hot and cold of their pitching staff would have driven me to mood stabilizers by now.

Vottomatic
08-19-2012, 05:38 PM
Uh......update on the Pirates score????

Kc61
08-19-2012, 05:38 PM
Uh......update on the Pirates score????

2-2 bottom nine man on first no outs for Cards.

Holliday pops out.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 05:39 PM
I don't think the Yankees should get comfortable (they never do), but I doubt the Rays can catch them. I don't think the Rays will keep up that pace, and the Yankees tend to get stronger in September.

The one thing that could shake things up is that fact that they have six more games against each other. If Tampa sweeps even once, things could get interesting.

They might not have to keep up that pace, at least completely. They're up 4-0 today against the Angels, and could get to within four games. The Yankees haven't been playing that well lately (15-15 in their last 30 games). If the lead is cut to four games tonight, that would put Tampa Bay firmly within striking distance.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:41 PM
They might not have to keep up that pace, at least completely. They're up 4-0 today against the Angels, and could get to within four games. The Yankees haven't been playing that well lately (15-15 in their last 30 games). If the lead is cut to four games tonight, that would put Tampa Bay firmly within striking distance.

Sure. I'm not saying the Yankees shouldn't be scared. I'm just saying they traditionally do very well holding off challenges in September, and they have a pretty healthy strong team right now.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 05:41 PM
It's certainly possible. Boy would it be nice to see the Rays win that division and the A's to sneak up and win the West, just to mess with people. :D

It's amazing that no one nationally is talking about the A's. They have quietly been a solid baseball club.

I don't want them to win the West, though. I want the Rays to catch the Yankees and the A's to beat the Yankees in a 1-game wild card round :)

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 05:47 PM
They might not have to keep up that pace, at least completely. They're up 4-0 today against the Angels, and could get to within four games. The Yankees haven't been playing that well lately (15-15 in their last 30 games). If the lead is cut to four games tonight, that would put Tampa Bay firmly within striking distance.

They are doing it with some crazy bench work from a guy who could barely move for 3 years (Chavez).....which I am sure OAK fans are wondering what the heck he is on all of a sudden. Granderson is literally only hitting homers....nothing much else. That ballpark down the LF area is more of a joke than GABP.

Bullpen is full of nobodies in the middle and a guy (Robertson) who really does not throw strikes but throws so hard hitters have a hard time laying off.

Tom Servo
08-19-2012, 05:51 PM
Mike Trout hit his 24th HR.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 05:56 PM
Bottom of the ninth and Correia is still pitching, btw. If I were a Pirates fan, the hot and cold of their pitching staff would have driven me to mood stabilizers by now.

I'm a moron. Karstens started; Correia came out of the pen. I'd be on mood stabilizers if I were a Pirates fan regardless, though.

GoReds
08-19-2012, 05:58 PM
Nice to see some extra innings for the Cards and Pirates...

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 06:00 PM
Nice to see some extra innings for the Cards and Pirates...

Hoping for eight or nine more at least. Cards have a day off tomorrow, but Pirates fly to the West Coast for a night game.

Degenerate39
08-19-2012, 06:07 PM
On to the 11th inning

Brutus
08-19-2012, 06:09 PM
The Diamondbacks have outscored lowly Houston 23-6 this series thus far. Get well, get well soon, Arizona.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 06:11 PM
Josh Harrison triples for Pittsburgh with one out in the 11th. The Cardinals are walking McCutchen intentionally. First & third, one down.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 06:13 PM
Cardinals get out of the jam inducing Neil Walker into a DP.

OldXOhio
08-19-2012, 06:16 PM
Obviously extends our lead if PIT loses, but I just want to see STL as far back in the rear view mirror as possible. Do not under any circumstances want to see them in the playoffs.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 06:44 PM
Pirates and Cards are still tied at 2 in the 13th inning.

Tom Servo
08-19-2012, 06:47 PM
Pirates and Cards are still tied at 2 in the 13th inning.
http://x.vukajlija.com/var/uploads/reactions/201208/17485/8339_original_yesjacknicholson.gif

Brutus
08-19-2012, 06:49 PM
I hope to see the "13" become a "19" here in a couple of hours.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:07 PM
On to the 14th in Saint Loo.

The Voice of IH
08-19-2012, 07:18 PM
this could not have worked out better for our Redlegs ;)

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 07:23 PM
St. Louis announcers just called Hanrahan "the best closer in the National League". I beg your pardon?

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:25 PM
First & third for St. Louis in the bottom of the 14th, two outs with Skippy up.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 07:26 PM
Onto the 15th!

RedsfaninMT
08-19-2012, 07:27 PM
I think the Pirates should bring Hanrahan back out for the bottom of the inning, then have him pitch 20 more pitches.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:27 PM
TB leads the Angels 6-2 in the 9th. About to be 11-2 with Longoria back.

On a related note, Greinke and Dempster have been less than stellar with their new AL West clubs.

Screwball
08-19-2012, 07:27 PM
St. Louis announcers just called Hanrahan "the best closer in the National League". I beg your pardon?

He's not even the 2nd best.

Screwball
08-19-2012, 07:29 PM
TB leads the Angels 6-2 in the 9th. About to be 11-2 with Longoria back.

On a related note, Greinke and Dempster have been less than stellar with their new AL West clubs.

I really like that Angels club but man, they just can't seem to put it all together.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:32 PM
I really like that Angels club but man, they just can't seem to put it all together.

Agreed. I'm a big fan of the way the Angels run their club, and this one is a good team on paper, but that rotation has woefully under-performed.

Screwball
08-19-2012, 07:36 PM
Pirates-Cards still 2-2 middle of 15.

Pirates have been held scoreless in their last 9 innings, Cards in their last 10.

mbgrayson
08-19-2012, 07:41 PM
Pirates-Cards still 2-2 middle of 15.

Pirates have been held scoreless in their last 9 innings, Cards in their last 10.

Pirates have to fly to San Diego after the game for a late game tomorrow, but the Cardinals have tomorrow off, then play three against the AAA Astros.

This long game is good for the Reds, since the Cardinals sure look to have a much easier week leading up to the Reds-Cards series next weekend.

On to the 16th....

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:41 PM
Let's play 16, shall we?

kaldaniels
08-19-2012, 07:43 PM
If I didn't know any better I'd think some of you guy are hoping ligaments are being frayed as we speak. :D

BCubb2003
08-19-2012, 07:43 PM
It's not even a regular 8-hour workday yet.

OldXOhio
08-19-2012, 07:44 PM
St. Louis announcers just called Hanrahan "the best closer in the National League". I beg your pardon?

First rule of listening to a Cardinals broadcast.....the Mad Hungarian will offer a pro STL slant on everything. You see, Hanrahan is the best in the NL b/c he contained the mighty Cardinal offense.

westofyou
08-19-2012, 07:45 PM
Attrition is the enemy, and in this case the Reds friend

westofyou
08-19-2012, 07:46 PM
First rule of listening to a Cardinals broadcast.....the Mad Hungarian will offer a pro STL slant on everything. You see, Hanrahan is the best in the NL b/c he contained the mighty Cardinal offense.

Once he spent half the game trying to convince the listeners that Chris Duncan was the equal of Adam Dunn

Hurdles team is playing stupid this inning though

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:46 PM
Garrett Jones leads off the 16th with a double, but is promptly thrown out at third on a fielder's choice. Then, the baserunner is thrown out trying to steal. Two outs, no one on base.

Edit: after a single, the Cards get out McCutchen. On to the bottom of 16 and PiratesZone is furious.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 07:57 PM
Middle of the Cards' order goes 1-2-3 in the 16th.

Let's play 17.

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 07:58 PM
Thoroughly enjoying this game today, heh.

CTA513
08-19-2012, 08:06 PM
both starting catchers have caught every inning so far.

BCubb2003
08-19-2012, 08:10 PM
Cardinals' Kelly comes up just short of a quality start.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 08:12 PM
Hoping for eight or nine more at least. Cards have a day off tomorrow, but Pirates fly to the West Coast for a night game.

Thought I was reaching here.

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 08:13 PM
Garrett Jones leads off the 16th with a double, but is promptly thrown out at third on a fielder's choice. Then, the baserunner is thrown out trying to steal. Two outs, no one on base.

Edit: after a single, the Cards get out McCutchen. On to the bottom of 16 and PiratesZone is furious.

Jones is a ballplayer one brick short of whatever it is.....you are short of...basically he is dense.
Yesterday... 3-0 and he swings at a pitch at his neck......then swings at a good pitcher's pitch and then again at ball 5.....with runners on 1st and 3rd and 1 out.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 08:13 PM
Cardinals' Kelly comes up just short of a quality start.

:lol:

Brutus
08-19-2012, 08:14 PM
The Pirates take the lead in the 17th on a bases-loaded single by Jones.

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 08:15 PM
Yes....take back what I said... you are a genius!

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 08:18 PM
I thought ump missed ball 4 to Tabata......then a line drive caught by the 2012 Cards version of the gritty grinder at 2B. I thought the Pirates would break it open there.

OldXOhio
08-19-2012, 08:21 PM
This game is too good to end this early. Hopefully the Cards score 1 here.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:24 PM
This game is too good to end this early. Hopefully the Cards score 1 here.

Molina lead off the bottom of the 17th with a single and the Cards pinch ran Ryan Jackson for him.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:29 PM
Schumaker singled to right centerfield, McCutchen came in and tried to make a sliding catch, but couldn't get to it. The Cards have runners on first and third with no outs.

RedsfaninMT
08-19-2012, 08:30 PM
McCuthen can't keep a single in front of him. Runner advances to 3rd. Runners on the corners, no outs.

RedsfaninMT
08-19-2012, 08:31 PM
Loooong meeting on the mound.

RedsfaninMT
08-19-2012, 08:32 PM
Liner caught by Walker. Runners hold.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:32 PM
Sac fly by Cruz. 3-3

Tom Servo
08-19-2012, 08:33 PM
lol

RedsfaninMT
08-19-2012, 08:33 PM
Sac Fly. Game Tied. :beerme:

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 08:33 PM
Sac Fly. Game Tied. :beerme:

:beerme:

Brutus
08-19-2012, 08:34 PM
Single by Jay puts two runners on with two outs.

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 08:35 PM
good grief talk about a choke job......which goes to show that it's not easy to close games.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 08:36 PM
LOL. I popped onto the scores and saw this. First thing that came to mind was "dreams really do come true". This is EXACTLY what I was hoping for at the beginning of this series. Split and a huge extra inning game that depletes their pens. Perfection. Who cares who wins. It's already a win for the Reds.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 08:37 PM
Let's play....

18.

OldXOhio
08-19-2012, 08:38 PM
Meanwhile, the Reds players are taking naps

RedsfaninMT
08-19-2012, 08:38 PM
Whew. Liner to LF caught. To heck with 18! I want an MLB record set tonight.

BCubb2003
08-19-2012, 08:39 PM
The Reds had to play a doubleheader so why not these guys?

klw
08-19-2012, 08:39 PM
1 non starter left in Pitt's pen and two in ST. L's.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:40 PM
The Pirates have Barajas left on their bench and Watson in their bullpen. The Cards are out of bench players and have Salas and Browning left in the pen. Salas is coming in to pitch the 18th.

Degenerate39
08-19-2012, 08:46 PM
I am loving this game

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:49 PM
Wandy is in to pitch for the Pirates.

Degenerate39
08-19-2012, 08:49 PM
Wandy is in to pitch for the Pirates.

Harang

RichRed
08-19-2012, 08:50 PM
Has Oquendo pitched yet?

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2012, 08:55 PM
In fairness, this is a much more important game than the Harang one ever was. But it's still crazy to throw out a starter.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:56 PM
Beltran is at second with two outs in the bottom of the 18th. Adam Wainwright is pinch hitting for Fernando Salas.

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 08:57 PM
In fairness, this is a much more important game than the Harang one ever was. But it's still crazy to throw out a starter.

He was starting tomorrow. You just move him back and bring someone else up. If you need the game that bad.... You can do it.

Tom Servo
08-19-2012, 08:58 PM
I bet they wish they had Wilson Valdez. Or even Paul Janish.

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 08:58 PM
Wandy walks Wainwright on 5 pitches as Beltran steals third.

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 08:59 PM
Kinda surprised they didn't argue interference w/ Freese striking out and falling out of the box, in front of the throw.

cincrazy
08-19-2012, 08:59 PM
I'm just rooting for both teams not to score. That way I feel like I'm rooting for neither of them lol.

Kc61
08-19-2012, 09:00 PM
I'm just rooting for both teams not to score. That way I feel like I'm rooting for neither of them lol.

Although I've been rooting for the Cards, I think your analysis is the best one.

Let this game just keep going and going and going. . . .

Onto the nineteenth.

BCubb2003
08-19-2012, 09:00 PM
Kinda surprised they didn't argue interference w/ Freese striking out and falling out of the box, in front of the throw.

It sure looked like it got in the way of the throw.

cincrazy
08-19-2012, 09:00 PM
Schumaker out on strikes, going 19!

Degenerate39
08-19-2012, 09:01 PM
This is crazy

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 09:02 PM
Barret Browning is in to pitch for the Cards.

BCubb2003
08-19-2012, 09:05 PM
"Elizabeth" Barrett Browning.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:05 PM
In fairness, this is a much more important game than the Harang one ever was. But it's still crazy to throw out a starter.

I disagree. It's not crazy, and it wasn't crazy to have Aaron pitch either. The crazy part was not pushing back his next start. And it'll be crazy if they don't do the same for Wandy. I think they'd be smart to bring up someone to pitch his next start and skip him entirely (which is what they should've done for Aaron).

Gizmo
08-19-2012, 09:05 PM
That place is looking pretty barren for being such a "great baseball town".

klw
08-19-2012, 09:05 PM
Looking ahead the Pirates have to travel and will face San Diego, The Cardinals have tomorrow off before staying at home to face the Astros on Tuesday.

cincrazy
08-19-2012, 09:05 PM
Before the game, I wanted the Cards to win. Then the game just kept going and going, and every time I even thought of rooting for the Cards to do well, I would projectile vomit all over the place.

So now I'm thinking, who cares if the Pirates win. We are still 6.5 up, AND they're going out West immediately after this game for a grueling series against a hot and rested Padres team. So even IF the Pirates win this game, they're probably screwed due to this game. Whatever the ending, it's really a best-case scenario for the Reds.

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 09:06 PM
And yet, the beer vendors stopped selling 12 innings ago. :snicker:

cincrazy
08-19-2012, 09:06 PM
However, my other "fear" is that the Cards will win this game, regain their mojo and confidence, and rip off one of their patented late season streaks. Boy I'm conflicted.

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 09:06 PM
HR Alvarez

klw
08-19-2012, 09:07 PM
HR for Alvarez, Pirates retake lead

cincrazy
08-19-2012, 09:07 PM
Alvarez homer!

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:07 PM
Alvarez dinger

Virginia Beach Reds
08-19-2012, 09:08 PM
This is a critical week for the Reds. Going to Philly where we never play well, while Cards have the lowly Astros.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 09:09 PM
I'm glad the Pirates will probably win this game, but I'm even more glad it will take them 19 innings to do it.

RedsMan3203
08-19-2012, 09:10 PM
This is a critical week for the Reds. Going to Philly where we never play well, while Cards have the lowly Astros.

But, they haven't had a team like this the past 10 years either.....

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 09:11 PM
Wandy struggled in the 18th, it will be interesting to see if he can hold the Cards scoreless in the 19th.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:12 PM
Too funny. One lone guy shouting "lets go cardinals". Just sounds pitiful. :O)

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 09:12 PM
WTF? How do you not send him w/ 2 outs in the freaking 19th inning?!?!

VottoFan54
08-19-2012, 09:15 PM
Browning walked Harrison to load the bases in front of Andrew McCutchen.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:15 PM
Grand slam to cement his MVP award?

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 09:17 PM
The Cardinals have the depth in all areas to make havoc in the playoffs...plus the fact I dislike them like the Yankees and Steelers....and a Cards loss is always a good loss.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 09:18 PM
Well, this is about the best possible scenario. More distance in front of the Cardinals and it took 19 innings of baseball before the Pirates pulled out the win -- on the eve of going to the West Coast. Nice.

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 09:18 PM
19innings and Cards gonna lose? We ALL win with that outcome :thumbup:

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:18 PM
I'd say that'll wrap it up. 2 run single from McCutchen.

paintmered
08-19-2012, 09:18 PM
Why only play 19 innings when you can play 26 of them? Cards need to get through this inning and plate three to do it, though.

klw
08-19-2012, 09:18 PM
McClutchen with the two run single to open it up. 6-3

Virginia Beach Reds
08-19-2012, 09:19 PM
But, they haven't had a team like this the past 10 years either.....

Philly starting staff is strong, leading off with Halladay tomorrow. Crossing my fingers the Cards don't make up 3 games real quick.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:19 PM
LOL. ground out to short...and again, that one lone fan..."yeah!" It just makes me smile. :O)

paintmered
08-19-2012, 09:20 PM
They've collectively used 16 pitches so far. :thumbup:

SirFelixCat
08-19-2012, 09:24 PM
Again, we all win today :)

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2012, 09:24 PM
I disagree. It's not crazy, and it wasn't crazy to have Aaron pitch either. The crazy part was not pushing back his next start. And it'll be crazy if they don't do the same for Wandy. I think they'd be smart to bring up someone to pitch his next start and skip him entirely (which is what they should've done for Aaron).

Do you honestly believe the Reds were in contention to win the division when that game with Harang took place?

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2012, 09:26 PM
Do you honestly believe the Reds were in contention to win the division when that game with Harang took place?

No. But I also don't think it matters. You play to win. Period. Pitching Aaron was the right move. He was due to pitch the next day so they only moved him up a few hours. Pitching him again so quickly after that extra inning game, THAT is where the screw up was.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 09:27 PM
That was fun.

Tony Cloninger
08-19-2012, 09:29 PM
I love the smell of a Cardinal loss in the morning. Smells like....victory.

PuffyPig
08-19-2012, 09:35 PM
No. But I also don't think it matters. You play to win. Period. Pitching Aaron was the right move. He was due to pitch the next day so they only moved him up a few hours. Pitching him again so quickly after that extra inning game, THAT is where the screw up was.



IIRC, Harang pitched in SD on his throwing day, which would have been on 2 days rest. I don't beleive he was due to pitch the next day.

And, in any event, whe is 24 ours a "few hours".

mbgrayson
08-19-2012, 09:37 PM
No. But I also don't think it matters. You play to win. Period. Pitching Aaron was the right move. He was due to pitch the next day so they only moved him up a few hours. Pitching him again so quickly after that extra inning game, THAT is where the screw up was.

I beleive that your memory of the 5/25/08 San Diego game where Harang was used for 4 innings (15th thru 18th) is wrong. He was already on short rest (only 2 days), he threw 63 pitches, AND then he started three days later. The GameDay for that game is HERE (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2008_05_25_cinmlb_sdnmlb_1).

cumberlandreds
08-19-2012, 09:40 PM
When the Cards/Pirates game went to the 10th I thought it would be nice if they would play 18 or 20 innings. They really burnt up everything in that one. The Pirates are really in bad shape with using Wandy for two innings. Now they have no idea who they will use tomorrow. The Cards do have tomorrow off and most of week too since they play the Astros for three starting Tuesday.

Kc61
08-19-2012, 09:43 PM
Big series for the Pirates beating the Cards at Busch two of three. Some people on here are underestimating Pittsburgh, particularly given their cupcake schedule.

Maybe the long game, the use of all those pitchers, followed by a trip to San Diego will set the Pirates back. Would like to see the Padres play them tough while Reds are in Philly. Volquez tomorrow I believe.

Cards are in rough shape, they do get the Stros now, but then it's ten tough road games against Cin, Pitt, and Nats and they are already 8.5 games back with two teams ahead of them.

I see this as a two team race for the division title with the Cards vying for the wild card at this point. Anything can happen, but Cards road to the division title is long and winding.

redsmetz
08-19-2012, 09:48 PM
When the Cards/Pirates game went to the 10th I thought it would be nice if they would play 18 or 20 innings. They really burnt up everything in that one. The Pirates are really in bad shape with using Wandy for two innings. Now they have no idea who they will use tomorrow. The Cards do have tomorrow off and most of week too since they play the Astros for three starting Tuesday.

This was my thought when I saw the Pirates finally pulled out the win; that I was glad they had to go so many innings. I wasn't sure what their schedule was, so I'm glad to hear they don't have an off day.

Hoosier Red
08-19-2012, 09:50 PM
Meh. Even if the Reds get swept and the Cards sweep, they're still 5.5 games back. I've gone from being concerned about one of the team's catching the Reds to wanting to make sure the Cards don't get into the playoffs at all.

vaticanplum
08-19-2012, 10:00 PM
Big series for the Pirates beating the Cards at Busch two of three. Some people on here are underestimating Pittsburgh, particularly given their cupcake schedule.

Again, it's possible we're fully aware of the schedule and just have a different opinion on the Pirates' ability to handle it. By no means do I think we've escaped the Pirates. I won't rest easy until the Reds have flat-out clinched, and I still expect them to have a historic collapse at any time.

But I'm much more concerned with my own team than with the Pirates. I just don't think the rest of their season is the cakewalk that you do. Their pitching is starting to flatline, and it's not flatlining to unforeseeably bad levels -- it's just evening off to where a lot of intelligence said it should have been all season. It's going to affect their starting pitching the most; their bullpen will hold up better, though Hanrahan is still also due for some evening out, especially with his K/BB ratio.

The W-L records of their opponents do not tell the whole story. There are other things to consider, and the Pirates' pitching is just one of them. They are playing a lot of subpar teams still capable of putting runs on the board, starting tomorrow with San Diego. Again, by no means do I think the Pirates are not a threat at this point. But I resent the constant implication that differing opinions must be borne from ignorance of facts. There may not be a person on this board who follows the Pirates' schedule more closely than I do. It's just that facts and knowledge of them can still breed differing opinions.

kaldaniels
08-19-2012, 10:37 PM
Again, it's possible we're fully aware of the schedule and just have a different opinion on the Pirates' ability to handle it. By no means do I think we've escaped the Pirates. I won't rest easy until the Reds have flat-out clinched, and I still expect them to have a historic collapse at any time.

But I'm much more concerned with my own team than with the Pirates. I just don't think the rest of their season is the cakewalk that you do. Their pitching is starting to flatline, and it's not flatlining to unforeseeably bad levels -- it's just evening off to where a lot of intelligence said it should have been all season. It's going to affect their starting pitching the most; their bullpen will hold up better, though Hanrahan is still also due for some evening out, especially with his K/BB ratio.

The W-L records of their opponents do not tell the whole story. There are other things to consider, and the Pirates' pitching is just one of them. They are playing a lot of subpar teams still capable of putting runs on the board, starting tomorrow with San Diego. Again, by no means do I think the Pirates are not a threat at this point. But I resent the constant implication that differing opinions must be borne from ignorance of facts. There may not be a person on this board who follows the Pirates' schedule more closely than I do. It's just that facts and knowledge of them can still breed differing opinions.

Pardon me for asking but I'm not sure I follow the English here...are you saying you expect the Reds to have a historic collapse, or the Pirates? (I'm thinking Pirates)

Sea Ray
08-19-2012, 10:51 PM
Let's hope the Astros get a little shot in the arm from their shuffling the coaching staff and getting rid of their manager. Sure can't hurt

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2012, 11:08 PM
No. But I also don't think it matters. You play to win. Period. Pitching Aaron was the right move. He was due to pitch the next day so they only moved him up a few hours. Pitching him again so quickly after that extra inning game, THAT is where the screw up was.

Disagree completely. In a regular season game where you're not going to win the division, you throw out a position player to pitch (a la Janish).

traderumor
08-19-2012, 11:25 PM
Again, it's possible we're fully aware of the schedule and just have a different opinion on the Pirates' ability to handle it. By no means do I think we've escaped the Pirates. I won't rest easy until the Reds have flat-out clinched, and I still expect them to have a historic collapse at any time.

But I'm much more concerned with my own team than with the Pirates. I just don't think the rest of their season is the cakewalk that you do. Their pitching is starting to flatline, and it's not flatlining to unforeseeably bad levels -- it's just evening off to where a lot of intelligence said it should have been all season. It's going to affect their starting pitching the most; their bullpen will hold up better, though Hanrahan is still also due for some evening out, especially with his K/BB ratio.

The W-L records of their opponents do not tell the whole story. There are other things to consider, and the Pirates' pitching is just one of them. They are playing a lot of subpar teams still capable of putting runs on the board, starting tomorrow with San Diego. Again, by no means do I think the Pirates are not a threat at this point. But I resent the constant implication that differing opinions must be borne from ignorance of facts. There may not be a person on this board who follows the Pirates' schedule more closely than I do. It's just that facts and knowledge of them can still breed differing opinions.:thumbup:

WVRedsFan
08-19-2012, 11:31 PM
Big series for the Pirates beating the Cards at Busch two of three. Some people on here are underestimating Pittsburgh, particularly given their cupcake schedule.

Maybe the long game, the use of all those pitchers, followed by a trip to San Diego will set the Pirates back. Would like to see the Padres play them tough while Reds are in Philly. Volquez tomorrow I believe.

Cards are in rough shape, they do get the Stros now, but then it's ten tough road games against Cin, Pitt, and Nats and they are already 8.5 games back with two teams ahead of them.

I see this as a two team race for the division title with the Cards vying for the wild card at this point. Anything can happen, but Cards road to the division title is long and winding.Mostly agree. People are underestimating Pittsburgh. When you go into StL and take two of three, no matter who you are, you are legitimate. When your pitchers hold StL to 3 or fewer runs, you have good pitching and isn't that's what it's all about :)?

Buccos play a horrible Padres team and we play a team that can shut our offense down. Not good. StL plays a horrible team also. We will probably lose ground this week. That's why this Cubs series was important. Wish could take back that second DH game and have a 7.5 game lead instead of 6.5.

The Cardinals will not do what they did last year IMHO.

kaldaniels
08-19-2012, 11:39 PM
Mostly agree. People are underestimating Pittsburgh. When you go into StL and take two of three, no matter who you are, you are legitimate. When your pitchers hold StL to 3 or fewer runs, you have good pitching and isn't that's what it's all about :)?

Buccos play a horrible Padres team and we play a team that can shut our offense down. Not good. StL plays a horrible team also. We will probably lose ground this week. That's why this Cubs series was important. Wish could take back that second DH game and have a 7.5 game lead instead of 6.5.

The Cardinals will not do what they did last year IMHO.

Couple things.

I don't think it is ever fair to argue a team should have swept another in a four-game series.

Don't give too much creedence to the series in STL this weekend. KC and Clev took 2 of 3 in Busch this year, but by your logic are legitimate...nah.

Screwball
08-19-2012, 11:48 PM
And the Padres aren't "horrible," at least not at home. They're just a touch under .500 there, and that offense is legit. This won't be an easy series for the Pirates, especially after today's marathon.

Tom Servo
08-20-2012, 12:31 AM
I think very few of us are underestimating Pittsburgh as much as we may be overestimating St. Louis. But I think St. Louis has earned that overestimation by us given their history.

Brutus
08-20-2012, 12:38 AM
I think very few of us are underestimating Pittsburgh as much as we may be overestimating St. Louis. But I think St. Louis has earned that overestimation by us given their history.

There may be some truth to that, but I'll admit to now being guilty of underestimating Pitt. Their offense relies too heavily on two guys. Their starting staff has been coming down to earth. And since trading Brad Lincoln, their bullpen has become extremely vulnerable as well.

I just think this is a good team, but not very likely one that can make up such ground with roughly 5-6 weeks remaining.

Scrap Irony
08-20-2012, 12:53 AM
I think it'd take a pretty big collapse on Cincinnati's part for either team to make up enough games to become a major factor in winning the NL Central Pennant this season. Teams have certainly coughed up leads like this in the past. However, because of schedules (not only do the Reds play a fairly weak one, but St. Louis has to play a bunch of tough games and Pittsburgh has a West Coast trip with few days off), injuries, and ineffectiveness, the climb is hard. It's not quite Everest yet, but they're nearing Kilamanjaro levels.

757690
08-20-2012, 01:09 AM
I think it'd take a pretty big collapse on Cincinnati's part for either team to make up enough games to become a major factor in winning the NL Central Pennant this season. Teams have certainly coughed up leads like this in the past. However, because of schedules (not only do the Reds play a fairly weak one, but St. Louis has to play a bunch of tough games and Pittsburgh has a West Coast trip with few days off), injuries, and ineffectiveness, the climb is hard. It's not quite Everest yet, but they're nearing Kilamanjaro levels.

Not jinx it, but Baker also has a history of getting his teams to have good if not great Septembers. I can't see the Reds playing below .500 the rest of the way, and that's what it would take for them to lose the division.

fearofpopvol1
08-20-2012, 01:43 AM
I think it'd take a pretty big collapse on Cincinnati's part for either team to make up enough games to become a major factor in winning the NL Central Pennant this season. Teams have certainly coughed up leads like this in the past. However, because of schedules (not only do the Reds play a fairly weak one, but St. Louis has to play a bunch of tough games and Pittsburgh has a West Coast trip with few days off), injuries, and ineffectiveness, the climb is hard. It's not quite Everest yet, but they're nearing Kilamanjaro levels.

The Reds have played the easier part of their remaining schedule. The rest of the season for the Reds isn't as easy as it appears. From here on out...

4 @ Philly
3 vs St. Louis
3 @ Arizona
3 @ Houston
3 vs Philly
3 vs Houston
3 vs Pittsburgh
3 @ Florida
3 @ Chicago
3 vs Los Angeles
3 vs Milwaukee
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 @ St. Louis

Outside of the Houston and Chicago series', I don't see any potential gimmes here. Florida and Milwaukee are formidable opponents and we all know that Philly is much better than their record shows (and we get the privilege in this series starting today of facing Halladay, Lee, and Hamels).

That's not to say that Pitt and St. Louis don't have tough opponents as well, because they do. Just that it's still a tough road ahead. In looking at it, Pittsburgh by far has the easiest remaining schedule.

3 @ San Diego
3 vs Milwaukee
3 vs St. Louis
3 @ Milwaukee
3 vs Houston
3 vs Chicago
3 @ Cincinnati
4 @ Chicago
3 vs Milwaukee
3 @ Houston
4 @ New York Mets
3 vs Cincinnati
3 vs Atlanta

St. Louis appears to have the toughest remaining schedule I'd say, but they do have more "gimme" type series' too, that balance things out.

3 vs Houston
3 @ Reds
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 @ Washington
3 vs New York Mets
3 vs Milwaukee
3 @ Padres
4 @ Los Angeles
3 vs Houston
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Houston
3 vs Nationals
3 vs Reds

I still have faith in the Reds, but they need to avoid being swept at all costs, especially against St. Louis and Pitt. And they need Votto back. Since Rolen is always a question mark, having Cairo or Valdez in the lineup everyday starts to be a drag on the offense.

Kc61
08-20-2012, 02:16 AM
The W-L records of their opponents do not tell the whole story. There are other things to consider, and the Pirates' pitching is just one of them. They are playing a lot of subpar teams still capable of putting runs on the board, starting tomorrow with San Diego. Again, by no means do I think the Pirates are not a threat at this point. But I resent the constant implication that differing opinions must be borne from ignorance of facts. There may not be a person on this board who follows the Pirates' schedule more closely than I do. It's just that facts and knowledge of them can still breed differing opinions.

I'm not implying any such thing. But I do think there has been a tendency to underestimate the Pirates. They are certainly in better position than I expected. And even if the Pirates are flawed, their competition in September is so weak they may roll over it anyway. For example, the Astros and Cubs are among the weakest NL teams I've seen in awhile, it's too bad the Pirates play them so many times.

On the other hand, the Pirates do play many games on the road. That's not the Bucs' strong suit, so maybe things will even out.

Right now, the main concern for Reds fans has to be the Reds' own tough schedule over the next ten games. I'm hopeful the Reds still lead by 4 or 5 games - or more - after the DBacks series next week. And I'm also hopeful Votto will be back around then.

Scrap Irony
08-20-2012, 02:20 AM
I disagree with your schedule assessment, fop. Barring a callapse, both Pittsburgh and St. Louis are going to have to go off on at least a .650 clip the rest of the season to catch the Reds for the pennant. That's really, really hard to do, especially since they have already had one huge run wherein they've done so and they're showing cracks in their starting armor. The Pirates will be lucky to finish their next 12 games at 6-6. (Tomorrow's game is going to be tough, as they just played a marathon, exhausting their pitching. They have problems on the west coast and with San Diego in particular. They suit up against the Cardinals again and six games with Milwaukee, who can slug with anyone. They also face Wainwright, Lohse, and both Gallardo and Fiers twice in that span, none of which are easy games.)

That means they'd have to win three of four the rest of the way to win the NL pennant.

St. Louis' math is even worse. The next 13 games, they'll have to win each series and hope both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh stumble. A record of less than 8-5 will pretty much doom them to a Wild Card berth at best. (Which is what I believe will happen, btw.)

Brutus
08-20-2012, 02:26 AM
I'm not implying any such thing. But I do think there has been a tendency to underestimate the Pirates. They are certainly in better position than I expected. And even if the Pirates are flawed, their competition in September is so weak they may roll over it anyway. For example, the Astros and Cubs are among the weakest NL teams I've seen in awhile, it's too bad the Pirates play them so many times.

On the other hand, the Pirates do play many games on the road. That's not the Bucs' strong suit, so maybe things will even out.

Right now, the main concern for Reds fans has to be the Reds' own tough schedule over the next ten games. I'm hopeful the Reds still lead by 4 or 5 games - or more - after the DBacks series next week. And I'm also hopeful Votto will be back around then.

Put it this way...

The Reds have 40 games left. On the season, they've played .600 baseball (.607 to be exact). But let's just say the Reds finish at 20-20 to end the regular season with 94 wins.

In order for the Pirates to tie, they'd have to go 27-14 (.659) over their last 41 games. By my math, if they did that, it would be a game better than their previous best stretch of that same number of games (26-15).

So for Pittsburgh to catch up, they need the Reds to play .500 over 40 games and still play their best baseball they've played over any rolling quarter of a season yet. Given their pitching coming down to earth recently, schedule or no schedule, I'm not sure that's very likely.

ESPN has the Reds with a 97% chance of making the playoffs. I think that shows what the odds are of those things happening. Obviously as last year showed, they're not impossible. But getting more and more improbable by the day.

Kc61
08-20-2012, 02:38 AM
Put it this way...

The Reds have 40 games left. On the season, they've played .600 baseball (.607 to be exact). But let's just say the Reds finish at 20-20 to end the regular season with 94 wins.

In order for the Pirates to tie, they'd have to go 27-14 (.659) over their last 41 games. By my math, if they did that, it would be a game better than their previous best stretch of that same number of games (26-15).

So for Pittsburgh to catch up, they need the Reds to play .500 over 40 games and still play their best baseball they've played over any rolling quarter of a season yet. Given their pitching coming down to earth recently, schedule or no schedule, I'm not sure that's very likely.

ESPN has the Reds with a 97% chance of making the playoffs. I think that shows what the odds are of those things happening. Obviously as last year showed, they're not impossible. But getting more and more improbable by the day.

The ESPN odds include the wild card. I would agree that the Reds are in excellent position to get a wild card spot even if they miss out on the division.

Really, my only concern in all this is the possibility of the Bucs going on a roll against the weak competition in September. Very confident the Reds will play pretty well - very confident in Cueto and Latos - and also confident that the Cards won't challenge for the division.

Thankfully, the Reds have a nice cushion going into this tougher stretch of games.

Brutus
08-20-2012, 02:45 AM
The ESPN odds include the wild card. I would agree that the Reds are in excellent position to get a wild card spot even if they miss out on the division.

Really, my only concern in all this is the possibility of the Bucs going on a roll against the weak competition in September. Very confident the Reds will play pretty well - very confident in Cueto and Latos - and also confident that the Cards won't challenge for the division.

Thankfully, the Reds have a nice cushion going into this tougher stretch of games.

The odds aren't much different for the division. A friend of mine is a *gasp* professional gambler and he is always calculating probability for various prop bets and such. In any event, I think he told me the other day the Reds had about a 90% chance of winning the division. So we're still talking a strong statistical probability that the Reds hold on.

Kc61
08-20-2012, 02:47 AM
The odds aren't much different for the division. A friend of mine is a *gasp* professional gambler and he is always calculating probability for various prop bets and such. In any event, I think he told me the other day the Reds had about a 90% chance of winning the division. So we're still talking a strong statistical probability that the Reds hold on.

Hope your friend is correct.

Brutus
08-20-2012, 02:52 AM
Hope your friend is correct.

He's from Chicago and is a Cubs fan, though, so while I too hope he's correct, that may seem like an oxymoron seeing that he roots for the Cubbies.

OldXOhio
08-20-2012, 09:28 AM
My concern is it what is it going to take in the final 34 games to make the final two series of the year (@ PIT, @ STL) meaningless?

redsmetz
08-20-2012, 10:17 AM
My concern is it what is it going to take in the final 34 games to make the final two series of the year (@ PIT, @ STL) meaningless?

Basically we need to just continue to take it one game at a time. I'd love for the next 34 games (not the final 34 games) allow us to have sufficient breathing room that we've clinched before the last two series. Of course, the math gets funky if Pittsburgh and St. Louis trade spots for 2nd place, but even there, Pittsburgh is the important one to have lose unless they fall into 3rd place, then it'll be St. Louis. Can we finish out at the .600+ clip we've have? Can't say, but each win drops the magic number by one. Whatever losses PGH or STL has, just drops it also. I agree, I'd like to clinch before those final six games. I remember 1999, although looking at that season, I now see we never had more than a one game lead at anytime in the season, so I like our current position better than that team's. That said, history has seen collapses of an epic proportion, so let's win as many as we can.

Dan
08-20-2012, 10:21 AM
My concern is it what is it going to take in the final 34 games to make the final two series of the year (@ PIT, @ STL) meaningless?

Twenty-eight wins in a row would do it. :eek:

Realistically, if they take the series from St. Louis and Pittsburgh in Cincinnati, that would go a long way toward securing the division. If the Reds swept the Cardinals (a tall order, I know) next weekend, that would put them 11.5 games back with 27 to play.