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Captain Hook
08-14-2012, 10:40 PM
I know there's going to be some people that will look at this as getting ahead of ourselves but I don't think it hurts to talk about it.

1.Cueto

2.Latos

3.Arroyo

I put Bailey in the pen and I use him.Maybe even as my setup man if he does well his first couple outings.I like Leake but unless there's an injury I don't see him as being very useful in the playoffs.

redsfan30
08-14-2012, 10:43 PM
My guess is Dusty gives Arroyo the game two start in order to break up the hard throwers in Cueto and Latos.

Captain Hook
08-14-2012, 10:44 PM
My guess is Dusty gives Arroyo the game two start in order to break up the hard throwers in Cueto and Latos.

That probably right.Probably not a bad idea either but if it means Arroyo get one more start in a series I wouldn't do it.

TOBTTReds
08-14-2012, 10:44 PM
I'm guessing Cueto, Latos, Homer

Brutus
08-14-2012, 10:46 PM
I'm guessing Cueto, Latos, Homer

I'll be very surprised if Arroyo isn't the third starter.

Captain Hook
08-14-2012, 10:47 PM
I'm guessing Cueto, Latos, Homer

Obviously there's still time for things to change but unless he gets hot again Arroyo gets the edge.If it's close I think Homer is much more useful out of then BP then Bronson would be.

wheels
08-15-2012, 12:10 AM
Jinx!

Captain Hook
08-15-2012, 12:18 AM
Jinx!

Well since I've started the thread the Reds are undefeated and the Pirates haven't won a game.;)

reds44
08-15-2012, 12:24 AM
Cueto, Latos, Arroyo is a no brainer unless Homer randomly goes off again. Assuming they go with a 4 man in the playoffs, I'd have Homer as the 4.

Caveat Emperor
08-15-2012, 02:59 AM
Dumb Johnny Cueto fact (since there's really no place else to post it):

Johnny Cueto's last No Decision was May 9th.

AtomicDumpling
08-15-2012, 04:49 AM
I would go with Cueto, Latos and Leake. The Reds have two studs and then some mediocrity after that. I think Arroyo is the worst member of the rotation. Leake is 3rd best due to his peripherals being better than Bailey's and Arroyo's despite his ERA currently being higher. If they are playing in a giant ballpark on a chilly day like in San Francisco maybe I let the fly ball king Arroyo make a start but I don't trust him at all. Leake is an extreme ground ball pitcher so if the game is in GABP I would go with him. Leake, Arroyo and Bailey have all performed much worse in GABP than they have on the road during their careers as Reds. I would have a short leash on any of them, you don't need to save the bullpen when you have so many off days during the playoffs.

Brutus
08-15-2012, 06:31 AM
I would go with Cueto, Latos and Leake. The Reds have two studs and then some mediocrity after that. I think Arroyo is the worst member of the rotation. Leake is 3rd best due to his peripherals being better than Bailey's and Arroyo's despite his ERA currently being higher. If they are playing in a giant ballpark on a chilly day like in San Francisco maybe I let the fly ball king Arroyo make a start but I don't trust him at all. Leake is an extreme ground ball pitcher so if the game is in GABP I would go with him. Leake, Arroyo and Bailey have all performed much worse in GABP than they have on the road during their careers as Reds. I would have a short leash on any of them, you don't need to save the bullpen when you have so many off days during the playoffs.

This is my preference as well, though I would, as noted earlier, expect Arroyo to get the nod due to his experience.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 07:42 AM
Right now it would be:

Cueto
Latos
Arroyo
Bailey

Especially since leake is better suited to relieving than the other 4.

I think Baker would love to break up Cueto and Latos with Arroyo, but won't do so if it meant that Arroyo, and not Latos, would get the 5th game start in a 5 game series.

Boss-Hog
08-15-2012, 08:29 AM
I would go with Cueto, Latos and Leake. The Reds have two studs and then some mediocrity after that. I think Arroyo is the worst member of the rotation. Leake is 3rd best due to his peripherals being better than Bailey's and Arroyo's despite his ERA currently being higher. If they are playing in a giant ballpark on a chilly day like in San Francisco maybe I let the fly ball king Arroyo make a start but I don't trust him at all. Leake is an extreme ground ball pitcher so if the game is in GABP I would go with him. Leake, Arroyo and Bailey have all performed much worse in GABP than they have on the road during their careers as Reds. I would have a short leash on any of them, you don't need to save the bullpen when you have so many off days during the playoffs.
Without looking it up, I believe Leake has significantly worse numbers this year at home vs. on the road (unless you're strictly talking about him making a road start, of course, but then that would put Arroyo or Bailey in the conversation).

dougdirt
08-15-2012, 08:41 AM
The Reds went with Volquez in 2010 as their #1 because of his ability to shut other teams down. With that in mind, I can't see them not going with Bailey as the #3 in favor of Arroyo or Leake. When it comes to the ability to be a shut down guy, Bailey is more likely to be able to do that than either of those other two guys.

kbrake
08-15-2012, 08:57 AM
I'd be pretty surprised if it were anything other than Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey.

WildcatFan
08-15-2012, 12:25 PM
I think Leake is excluded right away because of the amount of innings he's on track to throw this year. So the third spot (and breaking up the hard-throwers would be a travesty, so I'm talking the Game 3 spot) is between Arroyo and Bailey for me.

This matters to me, and before the small sample size shouts come out, all playoff stats are small sample sizes.

Arroyo in the playoffs from the bullpen:
8 games, 9 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 5 BB

Bailey in the playoffs from the bullpen:
1 game, 2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB

I think, from admittedly not much evidence but all the evidence we have, that Bailey would be more effective from the bullpen against baseball's best teams. He's got a more prototypical bullpen arm, and Bailey would be able to take the place of Ondrusek or Arredondo in the seventh inning.

PuffyPig
08-15-2012, 02:14 PM
The Reds went with Volquez in 2010 as their #1 because of his ability to shut other teams down. With that in mind, I can't see them not going with Bailey as the #3 in favor of Arroyo or Leake. When it comes to the ability to be a shut down guy, Bailey is more likely to be able to do that than either of those other two guys.

But they went with Arroyo as the #2 guy.

reds44
08-15-2012, 02:19 PM
The Reds pitching staff was nowhere near as good in 2010 as it is now. The Reds 3rd best pitcher in 2010 heading into the playoffs was Travis Wood. Just bad. This version of Cueto and Latos are better than any pitcher on that staff.

bucksfan2
08-15-2012, 03:09 PM
What consideration do you give park factors? Lets say the Reds play the Giants or Dodgers in the first series. If the Reds have home field you would want Cueto to pitch game one but wouldn't you want Latos pitching game 3 in the bigger park? My top 3 are Cueto, Latos and Arroyo with Bailey a slight nod to be the 4th.

RedsManRick
08-15-2012, 03:50 PM
The Reds went with Volquez in 2010 as their #1 because of his ability to shut other teams down. With that in mind, I can't see them not going with Bailey as the #3 in favor of Arroyo or Leake. When it comes to the ability to be a shut down guy, Bailey is more likely to be able to do that than either of those other two guys.

I think that was true because of the lack of a better shutdown option against the Phillies aces. But assuming Arroyo finishes the season with a better ERA than Bailey, I don't think there's any chance Bailey moves ahead of him in the rotation.

WildcatFan
08-15-2012, 03:59 PM
What consideration do you give park factors? Lets say the Reds play the Giants or Dodgers in the first series. If the Reds have home field you would want Cueto to pitch game one but wouldn't you want Latos pitching game 3 in the bigger park? My top 3 are Cueto, Latos and Arroyo with Bailey a slight nod to be the 4th.

Probably pretty serious consideration. But the new Division Series, as I understand it, and correct me if I'm wrong, actually has the first two games at the lower seed's park. So it's two in LA or SF then three in GABP.

reds44
08-15-2012, 04:01 PM
Zero consideration in the first round. You throw Cueto first so you can bring him back in game 5 if needed. It's all about getting Cueto and Latos as many starts as possible for me.

WildcatFan
08-15-2012, 04:04 PM
Zero consideration in the first round. You throw Cueto first so you can bring him back in game 5 if needed. It's all about getting Cueto and Latos as many starts as possible for me.

This.

I think the only debate should be Game 3.

lidspinner
08-15-2012, 09:10 PM
jC and ML are 1-2 fo sho.....after that I think we have to play the odds and go with the either the hot hand or the pitcher with the best numbers against who we are playing....we have 3 capable #3 pitchers....cannot go wrong with any of them and you can go wrong with all of them....so wait it out and see who fits the role at the time.

If Bronson gets the nod then I am a fan of giving him 2 innings....if they are busting his pitches hard and deep then yank him and get Bailey or Leake in there....when BA is off, he is clearly off and 9/10 times you can tell by the 1st few batters. Bronson has even been quoted as saying the same thing....

WebScorpion
08-16-2012, 06:37 AM
Cueto
Chapman
Latos
Arroyo

:beerme:

AtomicDumpling
08-16-2012, 06:40 AM
Cueto
Chapman
Latos
Arroyo

:beerme:

... in 2013! :thumbup:

edabbs44
08-16-2012, 08:47 AM
The Reds went with Volquez in 2010 as their #1 because of his ability to shut other teams down. With that in mind, I can't see them not going with Bailey as the #3 in favor of Arroyo or Leake. When it comes to the ability to be a shut down guy, Bailey is more likely to be able to do that than either of those other two guys.

Re: Arroyo vs Homer, I wonder if the opposing lineup will factor into the equation. For example, what if the opponent is RHH heavy?

REDREAD
08-17-2012, 04:54 PM
I would go with Cueto, Latos and Leake. The Reds have two studs and then some mediocrity after that. I think Arroyo is the worst member of the rotation. Leake is 3rd best due to his peripherals being better than Bailey's and Arroyo's despite his ERA currently being higher. If they are playing in a giant ballpark on a chilly day like in San Francisco maybe I let the fly ball king Arroyo make a start but I don't trust him at all. Leake is an extreme ground ball pitcher so if the game is in GABP I would go with him. Leake, Arroyo and Bailey have all performed much worse in GABP than they have on the road during their careers as Reds. I would have a short leash on any of them, you don't need to save the bullpen when you have so many off days during the playoffs.

I could get behind that, especially if you arrange the rotation so Leake pitches on the road. If Homer makes the playoff rotation, pitch him in a road game if possible as well.

traderumor
08-17-2012, 05:20 PM
I would imagine the toss up guys between Arroyo, Leake, and Bailey will come down to opponent, series status (down 2, up 2, even), and who is performing best in their last few starts leading up to the playoffs.

Honestly, any of those three is a toss up and there is no clear cut choice at this stage in the season. I'd say it will be a test for the Reds advanced scouts and the coaching team to choose the guy who gives us the best chance to win that particular game.

RedlegJake
08-17-2012, 06:24 PM
I would imagine the toss up guys between Arroyo, Leake, and Bailey will come down to opponent, series status (down 2, up 2, even), and who is performing best in their last few starts leading up to the playoffs.

Honestly, any of those three is a toss up and there is no clear cut choice at this stage in the season. I'd say it will be a test for the Reds advanced scouts and the coaching team to choose the guy who gives us the best chance to win that particular game.

Probably a lot of truth here but I think that Arroyo has a big edge going in. I just think Baker likes his experience and the likelihood he knows what he'll get from Bronson more so than he does with Leake or Bailey. I'd be inclined to toss the dice with Homer just because he can be dominating when he is on. It's time to hand him that torch if Dusty really believes is own mantra about building confidence by handing the ball over. By talent and pedigree Bailey should be #3. My own opinion, though, is that he'll play the safe hand and go with Bronson.