What does a 6/7 game lead actually mean?

[Brisco]

Ok, its August 15th and the reds sit at 70-46 with a six game lead over the Pirates and a seven game lead over the Cards. While nothing is locked up in any way, this is what it means to the Reds going forward in terms of what the Pirates/Cards have to do to catch them:

Scenario 1 - Reds continue at their current pace. Our win percentage is around .603. If we continue at that rate for the remaining 46 games, the reds would go (rounding down) 27-19 and their final record is 97-65. To catch them, the Pirates would need to go 33-13 or a .717 winning percentage. The Cards have to go 34-12, .739 percentage. Both of these would be incredible achievements for those teams. Remember the 1990 Reds and their incredible start to the season? They started 33-12. I think it is a safe bet that if the Reds keep playing .600 ball, they win the division.

Scenario 2. The Reds revert to the mediocre. Let's assume we play only .500 ball, 23-23 the rest of the way. We end up 93-69. The Pirates would need to go 29-17 (.630) and the Cards would need to go 30-16 (.652) to catch them. Both of these would require those teams to be playing better than the Reds have up to this point. While possible, Vegas odds would be significantly against this. I think it is a solid bet that if the Reds go. .500 and win only 23 more games, they win the division.

Scenario 3 - The Reds truly regress. How much could they regress? The absolute worst two stretches for the Reds this year over any span of more than 10 games were going 4-8 from 4/9-4/21 and going 6-10 from 6/18-7/5. If we revert to the abo****e worst we have played all year (and I cherry picked these losing streaks to maximize the losing percentage), we go 17-29 and finish 87-75. To match us the Pirates would still need to play .500 ball and the cards would have to play .521 ball. So even in the the worst reasonably foreseeable circumstance, the Reds still have a chance at winning the division.

The bottom line, although not insurmountable, 6 games is a huge lead this late in the season. I am not counting chickens, but to put it in perspective, the 1983 Braves had a 6.5 game lead on August 13th. Losing the division that year caused that team to receive an honorable mention on a list of the 10 worst collapses in MLB history.

http://baseball.about.com/od/majorleaguehistory/tp/pennantcollapses.htm

[BungleBengals]

Being 6 games up is awesome! We are tied with the Yanks as the most games up on the 2nd team in the division.

[boiseheidleberg]

Just have to go back to last year's Braves and Red Sox collapse to realize that until that magic number is 0 anything can happen.

[MrRedLegger]

A 6-7 game lead could mean anything.

Our 6 game lead means a whole lot. This team has come together without Votto and recently without Rolen. Guys like Xavier Paul, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez have stepped it up. Yes, you can dissect their statistical production and point out flaws, But these guys who would otherwise get no starts are stepping it up relative to their previous role.

Cozart and Frazier's contributions have been nothing but huge and spectacular. Rookies are asked for much less of what they're doing right now, in the field and at the plate.

Phillips and Ludwick. 'Nuff said about those two.

Pitching. (redundant at this point)

Hanigan has gone under the radar as one of if not the best catcher in the NL. And he still brings a decent bat.

Before his sore back and after the AS break, Rolen was playing like an All Star. He, among others on this team, have been amazing to watch to say the least.

Stubbs and Bruce have caused some headaches but have shown their true potential countless times. Enough times, that is, to win ballgames.

This team isn't handing the bat to one person and saying, "make us win" as a lot of us took for granted when Votto was healthy. When he returns just think what this team can and will do.

This 6 game (and hopefully rising) lead is the fruit of the labors of a team that has really come together, and is starting to congeal. I hope we can keep it up, which really isn't too outlandish to assume.

[CrosleyField]

I rather be 6 games up than 6 games down right now.

[Trajinous]

Great breakdown of scenarios. Red's need to keep taking care of business and stay healthy.

[Red Raindog]

What it means?

Magic Number is 41!

Let the countdown begin.......

[bigredmechanism]

Excellent unintentional typo.

[jhiller21]

It means if we lose six games, and the Pirates win six, we'll be tied ;)

Edit: well, seven now!

[Red Raindog]

magic # = 39 now

:)

[Mush]

I rather be 6 games up than 6 games down right now.

Exactly. Or even 7!

Of course we can get caught by either St Louis or Pittsburgh but this requires quite a swing in fortunes. The Reds could lose 7 in a row but during that time will either of those win all 7? Doubtful.

Long way to go though - but a 7 game lead at this point in the season is a pretty strong position to be in...

[IABucFan]

I said this in another thread, but I agree that you guys have all but locked up the division. I'm holding out hope that the Pirates can hold off St. Louis and LA/SF for the second WC spot.

I know that anything can happen, but I just don't see the Pirates or Cards. Aching you guys right now. The reds have had a terrific season, and considering that much of it has been done sans Votto, I'm seriously impressed.

[Brisco]

Ok, its August 15th and the reds sit at 70-46 with a six game lead over the Pirates and a seven game lead over the Cards. While nothing is locked up in any way, this is what it means to the Reds going forward in terms of what the Pirates/Cards have to do to catch them:

Scenario 1 - Reds continue at their current pace. Our win percentage is around .603. If we continue at that rate for the remaining 46 games, the reds would go (rounding down) 27-19 and their final record is 97-65. To catch them, the Pirates would need to go 33-13 or a .717 winning percentage. The Cards have to go 34-12, .739 percentage. Both of these would be incredible achievements for those teams. Remember the 1990 Reds and their incredible start to the season? They started 33-12. I think it is a safe bet that if the Reds keep playing .600 ball, they win the division.

Scenario 2. The Reds revert to the mediocre. Let's assume we play only .500 ball, 23-23 the rest of the way. We end up 93-69. The Pirates would need to go 29-17 (.630) and the Cards would need to go 30-16 (.652) to catch them. Both of these would require those teams to be playing better than the Reds have up to this point. While possible, Vegas odds would be significantly against this. I think it is a solid bet that if the Reds go. .500 and win only 23 more games, they win the division.

Scenario 3 - The Reds truly regress. How much could they regress? The absolute worst two stretches for the Reds this year over any span of more than 10 games were going 4-8 from 4/9-4/21 and going 6-10 from 6/18-7/5. If we revert to the abo****e worst we have played all year (and I cherry picked these losing streaks to maximize the losing percentage), we go 17-29 and finish 87-75. To match us the Pirates would still need to play .500 ball and the cards would have to play .521 ball. So even in the the worst reasonably foreseeable circumstance, the Reds still have a chance at winning the division.

The bottom line, although not insurmountable, 6 games is a huge lead this late in the season. I am not counting chickens, but to put it in perspective, the 1983 Braves had a 6.5 game lead on August 13th. Losing the division that year caused that team to receive an honorable mention on a list of the 10 worst collapses in MLB history.

http://baseball.about.com/od/majorleaguehistory/tp/pennantcollapses.htm

Two games later we are in exactly the same position being 6/7 games up on the Pirates/Cards. However, now there are only 44 games left.

[IamRV]

nm

[Brisco]

Ok, its August 15th and the reds sit at 70-46 with a six game lead over the Pirates and a seven game lead over the Cards. While nothing is locked up in any way, this is what it means to the Reds going forward in terms of what the Pirates/Cards have to do to catch them:

Scenario 1 - Reds continue at their current pace. Our win percentage is around .603. If we continue at that rate for the remaining 46 games, the reds would go (rounding down) 27-19 and their final record is 97-65. To catch them, the Pirates would need to go 33-13 or a .717 winning percentage. The Cards have to go 34-12, .739 percentage. Both of these would be incredible achievements for those teams. Remember the 1990 Reds and their incredible start to the season? They started 33-12. I think it is a safe bet that if the Reds keep playing .600 ball, they win the division.

Scenario 2. The Reds revert to the mediocre. Let's assume we play only .500 ball, 23-23 the rest of the way. We end up 93-69. The Pirates would need to go 29-17 (.630) and the Cards would need to go 30-16 (.652) to catch them. Both of these would require those teams to be playing better than the Reds have up to this point. While possible, Vegas odds would be significantly against this. I think it is a solid bet that if the Reds go. .500 and win only 23 more games, they win the division.

Scenario 3 - The Reds truly regress. How much could they regress? The absolute worst two stretches for the Reds this year over any span of more than 10 games were going 4-8 from 4/9-4/21 and going 6-10 from 6/18-7/5. If we revert to the abo****e worst we have played all year (and I cherry picked these losing streaks to maximize the losing percentage), we go 17-29 and finish 87-75. To match us the Pirates would still need to play .500 ball and the cards would have to play .521 ball. So even in the the worst reasonably foreseeable circumstance, the Reds still have a chance at winning the division.

The bottom line, although not insurmountable, 6 games is a huge lead this late in the season. I am not counting chickens, but to put it in perspective, the 1983 Braves had a 6.5 game lead on August 13th. Losing the division that year caused that team to receive an honorable mention on a list of the 10 worst collapses in MLB history.

http://baseball.about.com/od/majorleaguehistory/tp/pennantcollapses.htm

End of the week update. Reds are now 74-48, Pirates are 67-54 and Cards are 65-56. The lead is 6.5 and 8.5 respectively. That means:

Scenario 1 - Reds continue at current clip and finish with 98 wins. Pirates would have to go 31-10 and the Cards would need to go 33-8. Either would be historic.

Scenario 2 - Reds revert to mediocre. Go 20-20 and end up 94-68. (Think about that... we need only go .500 the rest of the way to win 94 games!) Pirates need to go 27-14 and Cards would need to go 29-12. Again, these would be pretty stellar finishes for either team.

Scenario 3 - Reds regress to the worst they played all year. Finish 13-27. That leaves them at 87-75. Pirates would still need to go 20-21 to match and Cards need to go 22-19.

Again... NOTHING IS FINAL... but the odds sure favor the Reds and time is running our for the Pirates & Cards.

[Maker_84]

it means unless they epically choke they will be in the playoffs

[BungleBengals]

Magic Numbers

Pirates - 35

Cardinals - 33

[IABucFan]

Personally, I would say that I, and most Pirates fans, have conceded the division to the Reds. Statistically, it just isn't likely that we catch you guys. I think Bucco nation has turned our sights towards the WC.

[BluegrassRedleg]

All it takes is one bad series in Philly by the Reds and one great series in San Diego by the Bucs to render all of this meaningless.

[Mr Larkin]

All it takes is one bad series in Philly by the Reds and one great series in San Diego by the Bucs to render all of this meaningless.

Both teams lost today, so that does not seem like it is likely.

[Brisco]

All it takes is one bad series in Philly by the Reds and one great series in San Diego by the Bucs to render all of this meaningless.

I disagree. Baseball is a sport where things level out over time and folks eventually play "...to the back of their baseball card" as Dusty once said i believe.

If we were two weeks into the season and Votto was hitting .150 and Cairo was hitting .450 in equal at bats, would you argue that Cairo will finish ahead of Votto? Of course not. Votto will catch him within a month and maybe within two weeks.

If the Pirates swept 3 from the Padres and the Reds were swept all 4 by the Phillies, the lead would be down to 3, but this does not make the current lead any less significant. The fact is that the Pirates are not a 1.000 winning percentage team and the Reds are not a 0.00 winning percentage team. They will both win some and lose some games. If you believe that the Reds are a .500 team the rest of the year, then they will win 20 of the last 40 games... they may lose 4 to the phillies but then will win four against the Cubs. Unless you believe that the Pirates are capable of being a .650 team over the last 41 games after winning the first three, then the Reds 6.5 lead secures them the division.

[BungleBengals]

I disagree. Baseball is a sport where things level out over time and folks eventually play "...to the back of their baseball card" as Dusty once said i believe.

If we were two weeks into the season and Votto was hitting .150 and Cairo was hitting .450 in equal at bats, would you argue that Cairo will finish ahead of Votto? Of course not. Votto will catch him within a month and maybe within two weeks.

If the Pirates swept 3 from the Padres and the Reds were swept all 4 by the Phillies, the lead would be down to 3, but this does not make the current lead any less significant. The fact is that the Pirates are not a 1.000 winning percentage team and the Reds are not a 0.00 winning percentage team. They will both win some and lose some games. If you believe that the Reds are a .500 team the rest of the year, then they will win 20 of the last 40 games... they may lose 4 to the phillies but then will win four against the Cubs. Unless you believe that the Pirates are capable of being a .650 team over the last 41 games after winning the first three, then the Reds 6.5 lead secures them the division.

Anything is possible. Look at last year, in the beginning of September, the Red Sox were up 9 games and the Braves were up 8 1/2 and both were caught and passed up in the WC, so 6 1/2 up in August is no gimme.

[jback76]

I just want the Reds to be playing good baseball. Cut out the excess errors and sloppy base running, get good pitching. Play like they have the last couple of months. I don't want playoff time to arrive with the Reds not playing well. If the Reds are playing good ball and go 21-18 the rest of the way I'll be happy. Last nights performance did not make me happy!

[Brisco]

Ok, its August 15th and the reds sit at 70-46 with a six game lead over the Pirates and a seven game lead over the Cards. While nothing is locked up in any way, this is what it means to the Reds going forward in terms of what the Pirates/Cards have to do to catch them:

Scenario 1 - Reds continue at their current pace. Our win percentage is around .603. If we continue at that rate for the remaining 46 games, the reds would go (rounding down) 27-19 and their final record is 97-65. To catch them, the Pirates would need to go 33-13 or a .717 winning percentage. The Cards have to go 34-12, .739 percentage. Both of these would be incredible achievements for those teams. Remember the 1990 Reds and their incredible start to the season? They started 33-12. I think it is a safe bet that if the Reds keep playing .600 ball, they win the division.

Scenario 2. The Reds revert to the mediocre. Let's assume we play only .500 ball, 23-23 the rest of the way. We end up 93-69. The Pirates would need to go 29-17 (.630) and the Cards would need to go 30-16 (.652) to catch them. Both of these would require those teams to be playing better than the Reds have up to this point. While possible, Vegas odds would be significantly against this. I think it is a solid bet that if the Reds go. .500 and win only 23 more games, they win the division.

Scenario 3 - The Reds truly regress. How much could they regress? The absolute worst two stretches for the Reds this year over any span of more than 10 games were going 4-8 from 4/9-4/21 and going 6-10 from 6/18-7/5. If we revert to the abo****e worst we have played all year (and I cherry picked these losing streaks to maximize the losing percentage), we go 17-29 and finish 87-75. To match us the Pirates would still need to play .500 ball and the cards would have to play .521 ball. So even in the the worst reasonably foreseeable circumstance, the Reds still have a chance at winning the division.

The bottom line, although not insurmountable, 6 games is a huge lead this late in the season. I am not counting chickens, but to put it in perspective, the 1983 Braves had a 6.5 game lead on August 13th. Losing the division that year caused that team to receive an honorable mention on a list of the 10 worst collapses in MLB history.

http://baseball.about.com/od/majorleaguehistory/tp/pennantcollapses.htm


Now that the Cards series is over, this looks like a good time for an update. I started this thread with46 games remaining and the Reds were 70-46. They had a 6/7 game lead over the Pirates/Cards respectively.

Since then the Reds have gone 7-6 and now sit at 77-52. The Cards have played very good ball and gone 7-4. The Pirates have faded, going 4-7 (assuming MIL holds onto their 7-0 lead) So the Reds played two more games than either of them. The lead remains almost identical but the teams have switched places (Cards at 6 and Pirates at 8). The Reds have 33 games remaining.

Scenario 1: Reds go 20-13 ( slightly better than .600 ball). Cards need to go 27-8, Pirates need to go 29-6. Simply put, Reds keep at current pace, division is ours.

Scenario 2: Reds go 17-18 (odd # of games remaining... Erring on the side of caution.). Cards need to go 24-11, Pirates would need to go 26-9. I suppose the Cards could do that, but it would pretty epic.

Scenario 3: Reds go 11-22. Even then, the Cards need to go 18-17 to match and the Pirates 20-15.

Nothing is locked up... But 13 games later the Reds still hold a 6 game lead and the contenders are running out of time.

[chuck6660]

I have made a projection based on the Reds remaining 33 game schedule, current meltdown of the Reds pitching staff and several other intangibles; the Reds will go 18-15 for a 95-67 record. to tie the Reds for the NL Central crown the "dirty birds" will need to finish with a 25-10 record. While it's possible that St. Louis wins 25 of their remaining 35 games, I think it's more probable that th eReds will exceed by projection...my fingers are crossed!

[Old NDN]

It means the Reds better have more than a 3 game lead before that last weekend series.

[jback76]

It means the Reds better have more than a 3 game lead before that last weekend series.
Yes, this. Couldn't ask for a better setup, the Reds can go into that last series not having to worry.

[HometownHero]

That sweep last time against the Cardinals was massive, its the only series we won against them in 4 tries this year. If we just went 2 of 3 it we would been up 4 games and if we lost it 2 to 3 it would be 2 games and we would be even if they swept us.

[Phoenix2]

Seems to me the Cards are hot and if they keep it up its pretty simple: they chip away at the lead to get it to 3 games over the next month then sweep the Reds at home in the last series of the season. Now hopefully the Reds get Votto back and play well while the Cards cool off.

[IamRV]

Headline in the paper day before yesterday after the Cards took the final game of the series was "Reds are only 8-6 in last 14 games".

OMG - hide the women and children!

Cheese and rice people, that's a .571 clip which is exactly the percentage a team that finishes with 92 wins has over the course of an entire season. Sign me up!

The reality is, the Reds have 78 wins with 32 games remaining while the Cards have 71 wins with 34 games left to play.

If the Reds continue at their current .600 pace they will end the season at 97 wins and the Cards would have to go 26-8 to tie, a .765 rocket ship.

If the Reds drop to .500 they will finish with 94 wins and the Cards have to win more than 2 of every 3 to go 23-11 to tie, a heady .676 clip.

If the Reds were to limp home at .400 winning only 13 of the remaining 32 games they would still finish at 91 wins and the Cards would still have to raise their play to .588 (20 wins) again just to tie.

Barring the wheels completely falling off the machine, the Reds are in really good shape to take the Central crown.

[Brisco]

Time for another update as we have finished a couple series and have a day off tomorrow. Its September 5th and after today's games we have an 8.5 lead on the Cards and either a 10 or 11 game lead on the pirates.

Rather than cover all the scenarios, I will only address the worst case scenario, since the other two are basically locks.

I am going to address this in a slightly different way, however.

The Reds have 8 three game series left. If they go 1-2 in every one of those series, 8-16 overall, the Cards would have to go 17-8 just to tie them. 17-8 is much better than the Cards have played this year, BTW. That is a .680 winning percentage. The Cards currently have a .540 winning percentage.

Think about it... the Reds could lose every single one of their remaining series and still lock up the Division.

[NOTE: This thread is about winning the central division... please do not co-opt it into a discussion of what seed you want in the playoffs or how welll you think they will do... there are plenty of other threads already discussing those issues.]

Again... nothing is certain until the magic number (currently 17) hits zero, but things are looking pretty good for Cincy. :thumbup:

[jback76]

Of course just as likely if the Reds go 16-8 the Cards can do no better then tie. I like this better.

[krm1580]

After the St Louis series when the Reds hit the road with a 6 game lead I said Reds had to increase their lead between then and September 17th because they had a much easier schedule than St. Louis over that stretch and after the 17th the Cardinals have it very easy, closing out with games against the Astros and Cubs.

Well halfway through the stretch, mission accomplished. The lead has been pushed to 8.5. With Votto back and the Reds playing the Astros, Pirates and @Cubs while the Cardinals have a very hot Milwaukee team then @SD and @LA there is no reason the Reds should be less than +8.5 on 9/17. Anything can happen but I am feeling pretty good right now.

[texasdave]

Milwaukee is on a roll. 13-3 in their last 16 games. With series coming up against St. Louis and Atlanta they could seriously tighten up that Wild Card race.
Personally, I want the Pirates to sneak in there. Simply because they have not gone in forever. If the Brewers do stay hot against the Cards and the Braves then people will just start posting about another team the Reds don't want to possibly face in the playoffs.

As far as I can tell, reading Sun Deck, the Reds don't want to face anyone. And they don't want to start either at home or on the road. It's gonna be tough to make it to the World Series with those stipulations.

IMO, the Reds will win it all. It feels like their year. My big toe throbs and my left elbow is creaking again. Just like back in '90. :)

[P.E.R#14]

I think it's time to start thinking beyond the regular season!! 2012 could be EPIC!


Go Reds!!

[smixsell]

As far as I can tell, reading Sun Deck, the Reds don't want to face anyone. And they don't want to start either at home or on the road. It's gonna be tough to make it to the World Series with those stipulations.

IMO, the Reds will win it all. It feels like their year. My big toe throbs and my left elbow is creaking again. Just like back in '90. :)

I'm not sure I would say WILL, but they certainly COULD. :)

They are a legitimate World Championship contender IMO.

My biggest concern is Dusty as a short series manager. I real understanding of logic and probability are at a premium in the post season, and although I think Dusty hasd performed much better this year, I'm still far from comfortable with him making the BIG calls.

My big hope for a WS title is that our pitching and hitting will peak in the post season (a distinct possibility IMO) and Dusty will not be the deciding factor. :beerme:

Go Reds! :)

[P.E.R#14]

I'm not sure I would say WILL, but they certainly COULD. :)

They are a legitimate World Championship contender IMO.

My biggest concern is Dusty as a short series manager. I real understanding of logic and probability are at a premium in the post season, and although I think Dusty hasd performed much better this year, I'm still far from comfortable with him making the BIG calls.

My big hope for a WS title is that our pitching and hitting will peak in the post season (a distinct possibility IMO) and Dusty will not be the deciding factor. :beerme:

Go Reds! :)


Random Question. I almost moved to Fremont earlier this year. If the Reds wind up playing SF in the post-season, how much are tickets to AT&T running? I know regular season are pretty high compared to Cincy. Just wondering.

[muethibp]

Random Question. I almost moved to Fremont earlier this year. If the Reds wind up playing SF in the post-season, how much are tickets to AT&T running? I know regular season are pretty high compared to Cincy. Just wondering.

Stubhub has a couple thousand tickets, I looked yesterday. You can get a nosebleed seat for $100, tickets running up from there.

[goreds2]

I hope along with everyone else we can clinch ASAP. Give the regulars a rest then play them the last 3 games against STL. to knock them out of the playoff picture. ;)