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View Full Version : If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......



Vottomatic
08-17-2012, 10:32 AM
.....who would you keep?

reds1869
08-17-2012, 10:42 AM
Leake, and I wouldn't think about it very hard.

dfs
08-17-2012, 11:02 AM
Leake, and I wouldn't think about it very hard.

bird in the hand and all that.

SirFelixCat
08-17-2012, 11:04 AM
Leake, as he hasn't had the shoulder issues.

RedsManRick
08-17-2012, 11:17 AM
Leake for two reasons:

1. More than a year less service time
2. Adds value at the plate

REDREAD
08-17-2012, 11:18 AM
Leake..
Less injury worries, club has control of him for longer period of time.
I like his makeup better too. Seems like he will have a long career like Arroyo.

I have been impressed with how Homer has taken a huge step forward this year however. Impressed that he had such a rigorous offseason workout to get in good shape, and glad it paid off for him.

edabbs44
08-17-2012, 11:33 AM
If you are talking about a trade, the return would be involved in my decision. All things being equal, Leake.

cumberlandreds
08-17-2012, 11:36 AM
Leake; I think he will soon become an innings eater much like Arroyo. Every team can use durable pitchers like this.
Bailey just doesn't seem to be able to be consisent for a whole season. He's been better this season. But lately he's reverted back to Bad Bailey. Also like others have pointed out he has had shoulder issues. I'm wondering if that shoulder isn't barking a little now and he's not saying anything.

Homer Bailey
08-17-2012, 11:39 AM
I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.

Dan
08-17-2012, 11:41 AM
I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.

Are you suggesting that RedsZone fans are a fickle lot? :eek:

/Leake, but by a hair and like someone said above, the return would have to be known too

dougdirt
08-17-2012, 11:47 AM
Bailey and I wouldn't have to think about it. His stuff is just much better. When he is on his game, he can dominate the other team. When Mike Leake is on his game, he can get a bunch of groundouts.

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2012, 11:55 AM
Homer. And I love Leake too. Personally, I don't deal ANY of the starters. Once Bronson leaves, that's when I move Chapman into the rotation.

cincrazy
08-17-2012, 12:08 PM
Leake. Homer has better velocity, but I wouldn't say his "stuff" is necessarily better. Leake can really move the ball around and hit his spots. He's also more athletic. It's not a slam-dunk case, I can see a case for Homer. Personally, I take Leake and don't think twice about it.

Raisor
08-17-2012, 12:16 PM
Homer has had multiple shoulder issues, therefore I pick the crafty cat burgler.

757690
08-17-2012, 12:20 PM
I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.

The issue with with Bailey has always been his inconsistency. He has better stuff, but can't put it together for an extended period of time.

I think it's funny that people a month ago were touting how consistant Bailey had been, since the season was only halfway over.

For me, it's Leake, but only because of the reasons RMR gave. If they had the same controllable years, it's a toss up, imo, both are solid #4-5 starters.

CySeymour
08-17-2012, 12:24 PM
I'd say Homer, but wouldn't be upset if it were Leake who got kept. There just seems to be that one thing off from Homer, that one thing that keeps it from clicking in. Sometimes with pitchers, it takes a bit longer for them to figure it out then hitters. I'd like to maybe get him a couple of starts with Hannigan catching, just for kicks and grins.

Homer Bailey
08-17-2012, 01:03 PM
The issue with with Bailey has always been his inconsistency. He has better stuff, but can't put it together for an extended period of time.

I think it's funny that people a month ago were touting how consistant Bailey had been, since the season was only halfway over.

For me, it's Leake, but only because of the reasons RMR gave. If they had the same controllable years, it's a toss up, imo, both are solid #4-5 starters.

My point was that if this thread was started in late July, not nearly as many people would have said they'd rather hold on to Leake. Coming off several bad starts in a row can cause people to be quite reactionary, IMO.

Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.

Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.

Caveman Techie
08-17-2012, 01:09 PM
I would keep Leake, for many of the reasons stated already. Homer has a higher ceiling, but I think Leake is more likely to reach his ceiling.

Now with that said, I don't dump on Homer yet either. He is still a very young pitcher and is just now coming in to his prime where I would expect him to take that next step forward, if he ever will. Once Arroyo is out of the rotation and Chapman is in it, I would be more than happy to give Homer more time to take that next step.

MWM
08-17-2012, 01:52 PM
Leake in a no-brainer for me, and I would have said the same at any point in the season. I think Leake is a better pitcher and will be a better pitcher. Even when Homer was in his really good stretch this year, I knew a big drop off was coming. I don't think Homer is a great competitor and Leake is. I think Leake is going to continue to get better while we've seen what Homer is. If I had to win one game right now, I know I'd much rather have Leake on the mound than Homer.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 01:54 PM
My point was that if this thread was started in late July, not nearly as many people would have said they'd rather hold on to Leake. Coming off several bad starts in a row can cause people to be quite reactionary, IMO.

Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.

Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.

I think Homer has done some good things this year and look forward to another hot streak from him. This has been Homer's best year IMO and overall I think he has contributed a bit more than Leake. I wouldn't mind if the Reds keep Bailey next year.

But if forced to take one of them for the future, I'd take Leake. I think Homer's high ceiling is questionable at this point.

Homer as a power pitcher and bat misser isn't working out. His K rate is 6.80 per nine innings and has gotten lower over the last three years. Fangraphs rates his fastball below average. I don't see the big upside at this point.

Leake never was held out as a power pitcher, is a bit younger and less experienced, but is very competitive and shows a feel for pitching. Good ground ball rate of 47.7%. Many of his numbers are similar to or slightly better than Homer's this year (FIP, xFIP, WAR for example).

Given his modest K rate and fastball rating, I don't see Bailey's path to sustaining excellence. I can see Leake's as a ground ball guy, although it's certainly not a lock.

RedsManRick
08-17-2012, 02:19 PM
Bailey and I wouldn't have to think about it. His stuff is just much better. When he is on his game, he can dominate the other team. When Mike Leake is on his game, he can get a bunch of groundouts.

Doug, I've made the same argument at times. However, that simply hasn't translated. He's got a career 6.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. The walks are down this year, but the K's are right in line with that. By contrast, Leake is at 6.1 and 2.4 respective.

0.8 strikeouts per nine is nothing to scoff at, but neither is 0.9 walks. At what point does Homer need to translate that stuff in to being more than a back of the rotation guy?

Or is your point simply that Homer still has untapped upside whereas Leake is basically who he is.

Vottomatic
08-17-2012, 02:31 PM
Tallying comments, it's the better stuff/high ceiling argument vs. the results argument.

I'm a results guy. I also consider injury history.

Nor do I think missing bats is the end all. I've seen too many guys with good offspeed stuff and breaking balls put many power pitchers to shame.

I also knew the timing of this question would come into question after Bailey's bad outing.

Brutus
08-17-2012, 02:35 PM
I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.

Leake, and for the record, I would have answered the same a few weeks ago.

Bailey has just not won me over. Even when he was pitching well, I felt it was somewhat smoke & mirrors. He too often gets the ball up in the zone for my liking. His stuff is a little better than Leake's when it's on, but I like Leake because of the age, the contract, the control and being able to induce more grounders.

I don't dislike Bailey, but I'd rather have Leake going forward.

Brutus
08-17-2012, 02:37 PM
Bailey and I wouldn't have to think about it. His stuff is just much better. When he is on his game, he can dominate the other team. When Mike Leake is on his game, he can get a bunch of groundouts.

While I don't disagree Homer has better stuff, it's worth noting that Bailey only has a minimally better K-rate and the past two years combined, Leake's FIP is actually better than Homer's.

For a guy you "wouldn't have to think about it," that's a compelling case to the contrary.

dougdirt
08-17-2012, 03:16 PM
Or is your point simply that Homer still has untapped upside whereas Leake is basically who he is.

This. I don't see Mike Leake being able to do much beyond what he is right now. Homer Bailey, when he is on at least, has an above average fastball, split finger, curve and slider. With control. Mike Leake when he is on top of his game simply can't match that.

dougdirt
08-17-2012, 03:17 PM
While I don't disagree Homer has better stuff, it's worth noting that Bailey only has a minimally better K-rate and the past two years combined, Leake's FIP is actually better than Homer's.

For a guy you "wouldn't have to think about it," that's a compelling case to the contrary.

Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

Vottomatic
08-17-2012, 03:25 PM
Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

I don't see how anyone knows what either guys ceiling is.

Brutus
08-17-2012, 03:25 PM
Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

Bailey has been around for eight professional seasons and pitched over 1,000 innings. Isn't it time to accept that he probably isn't going to be "a whole lot more than he currently is?"

For goodness sake, Doug, he's 26 years old and has 1,000 innings under his belt. I think it's time to accept this is probably what he is. I'm really not sure there's much more upside left for Homer. He is who he is. Good pitcher, but I think it's time to eliminate the word "potential" from the vocabulary in Homer discussions.

dougdirt
08-17-2012, 03:47 PM
Bailey has been around for eight professional seasons and pitched over 1,000 innings. Isn't it time to accept that he probably isn't going to be "a whole lot more than he currently is?"

For goodness sake, Doug, he's 26 years old and has 1,000 innings under his belt. I think it's time to accept this is probably what he is. I'm really not sure there's much more upside left for Homer. He is who he is. Good pitcher, but I think it's time to eliminate the word "potential" from the vocabulary in Homer discussions.

I strongly disagree with you here. I really don't feel like arguing about it anymore. I addressed how and why I feel about it in this thread already. You disagree with me. That is fine, we disagree.

REDREAD
08-17-2012, 03:51 PM
I actually think both Homer and Leake could improve somewhat.

Really, all either of them has to do is gain some consistency and reduce the number of horrible starts and they are a solid #3. Hard to say which was is going to actually do that (maybe neither will). Both have their share of "off nights", which really keeps them in the BOR catagory.

I'm guessing most of us wouldn't mind either Leake or Homer starting a playoff game if we knew in advance that they would have a good night.. both are capable, just need to reduce the number of stinkers.

Kc61
08-17-2012, 04:01 PM
I think the argument for Homer is that his best performances are more dominant. He has pitched some great games this year, games in which he got stronger in the late innings, looked like a top end pitcher. Leake hasn't been so dominant even in his better games.

I'd vote for Leake, but I think that's the theory for Homer and it's a fair point.

Vottomatic
08-17-2012, 04:05 PM
Homer would do better and look better pitching in Petco or someone other large park. He's scared to death of giving up the HR ball.

I agree with Brutus. Homer is what he is. He's had enough innings and time to establish who is he.

I think fans have a tendency to latch onto or invest wayyy too much allegience to certain prospects. When they don't quite pan out, there's always that clinging hope that they will, instead of acknowledging that they didn't quite meet all the hype and huge expectations. Bailey is one of these guys. And Bruce is quickly becoming one. But the blame, maybe should simply be on the fans ridiculous expectations and not these players.

Patrick Bateman
08-17-2012, 04:43 PM
I mostly agree with Brutus, but we also have to remember that Bailey came up to MLB fairly young. He would hardly be the first 28-30 year old starting pitcher to make another jump.

Unfortunately, it would be an expensive gamble to see if he does it (ie. Darren Dreifort - whom never made that extra jump and got an injured). The problem with Baiely is that the Reds will have to essentialyl pay him dollar for dollar what he deserves based on what he prdocues. From here, he wont be cheap regardless of what he does, and for that reason, I'd rather have Leake whom is a pretty good starter, and has the extra cheap year which gives him more controllable value before having to pay for whatever perceived upside there is.

kaldaniels
08-17-2012, 05:23 PM
I don't know the answer to this question, it's a tough one for me.

But it's probably the most important question for the front office to answer in the year ahead.

IslandRed
08-17-2012, 05:52 PM
I mostly agree with Brutus, but we also have to remember that Bailey came up to MLB fairly young. He would hardly be the first 28-30 year old starting pitcher to make another jump.

Very true. Pitchers tend to improve less linearly than hitters do, or at least that's my impression. Bailey probably is what he is for now, but it's not out of the question he couldn't figure something out later that takes him to another level.

As for Leake, I don't really buy the "this is all there is" argument some have made. It's easy to forget he's 18 months younger than Bailey and had enough talent to get major-league hitters out without even touching the minor leagues. Granting he doesn't have the top-end velocity many other guys do, he's the guy I'd bet on to keep coming up with tweaks and adjustments to get better.

757690
08-17-2012, 05:55 PM
Bailey has made meaningful improvements this season, so he absolutely can improve more. Change is usually gradual.

And Leake never really spent time in the minors, so he's been learning on the job for the past few years. It seems like he's still learning how to pitch in the bigs, so he also can amd should improve.

RedlegJake
08-17-2012, 05:57 PM
It's tough for me too. Bailey really is the more dominant in a single game when he's on but he really isn't any more dominant than Leake over a season. I'd say if it was a trade it would be about the return and also about the payroll and its impact - Leake is going to be cheap for another year or two after Homer gets expensive. Don't mind the payroll if I know Bailey is going to keep getting better but I don't know that. Seems to me that both pitchers have progressed each year a bit, with Bailey hampered by health issues. I'd say Homer isn't done progressing - heck he's made strides each year - now it's mostly about eliminating or reducing the bad games.

You know what I think I just talked myself into keeping Bailey, after all.

mace
08-17-2012, 06:18 PM
The most consistent argument for Bailey seems to be that when he's on his game, he's more dominant. Admittedly, I'm a Leake guy--I prefer the way he goes about his business--but I just don't see the dominance argument.

I charted the top 15 performances for each guy for the past three seasons, averaging five performances a year. I listed them chronologically. Here's how they break down:

Homer Bailey (5-3-86)

5-12-10 vs Pit: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K, GS 85
8-15-10 vs. Fla: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, GS 70
8-20-10 vs. LA: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K, GS 69
9-10-10 v. Pit: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K, GS 72
9-26-10 vs. SD: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 64
5-10-11 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, GS 72
5-21-11 vs. Cle: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K, GS 65
7-17-11 vs. StL: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, GS 69
8-2-11 vs. Hou: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, GS 69
8-13-11 vs. SD: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K, GS 67
9-9-11 vs. StL: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 68
6-16-12 vs. NYM: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K, GS 68
7-2-12 vs. LA: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K, GS 70
7-20-12 vs. Mil: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K, GS 76
7-25-12 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 7 K, GS 69

Mike Leake (11-12-87)

4-28-10 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K, GS 66
5-9-10 vs. Chi: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 62
6-5-10 vs. Wash: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 5 K, GS 66
6-11-11 vs. SF: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K, GS 81
6-27-11 vs. TB: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, GS 65
7-19-11 vs. Pit: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K, GS 66
9-6-11 vs. Chi: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K, GS 79
9-13-11 vs. Chi: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K, GS 66
5-21-12 vs. Atl: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 77
6-1-12 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K, GS 69
6-19-12 vs. Cle: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, GS 64
6-24-12 vs. Min: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K, GS 69
6-29-12 vs. SF: 9 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, GS 68
7-24-12 vs. Hou: 8 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 65
8-15-12 vs. NYM: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K, GS 79

As you can see, they're very similar. Bailey shows the top game score, an 85 in his first top-15 outing of 2010. Leake's best is an 81. But the next three highest scores (four of the top five, that is) go to Leake. Taking just their top five outings, Leake averages a game score of 77, Bailey a 75. Bailey's lowest listed score, a 64, is slightly higher than Leake's 62.

In total, Leake's top 15 games embrace 114 innings; Bailey's 110.1. Their walks are almost identical, 17 for Leake and 18 for Bailey (very good numbers in both cases). Bailey does produce more strikeouts by a fairly modest margin, 88-75.

Will M
08-17-2012, 08:57 PM
the Reds can't give long term deals to every decent player. when stars get expensive then keep them. when ok guys get expensive move on. hopefully when Bailey & Leake become free agents the good prospects we have will be ready to take over. i wouldn't bet on either of these guys being a Red once their six years of service time are up.

on the other hand despite his struggles I'd lock up Latos now.

KittyDuran
08-17-2012, 09:02 PM
Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

Awww Doug you're just sore because you couldn't follow Leake up thru the minors. ;)

mth123
08-17-2012, 10:08 PM
I think 10 years from now we're going to look back at Homer as the better pitcher. But with his shoulder history and Leake's longer time under control, I think he's the answer. I think they are both gone by 2015 anyway. The Reds spent their money elsewhere. The money left needs to go toward Latos and, if he's still healthy, extending Cueto. Stephenson, Corcino, Lotzkar, Cingrani, Rogers, Travieso and Chapman will be the guys to choose from to fill out the rotation come 2015.

oregonred
08-18-2012, 01:32 AM
Reds need to try and lock up Latos and Leake for a couple FA years in the offseason - assuming Leake can be extended at a reasonable contract. Leake seems less injury prone, and someone who could be a solid #3 type for years. The bat and great defense is a bonus.

Homer is likely good trade bait to a bigger park team, but is getting too expensive for the duration of his service time. The foolish organization use of his service time in his early years is a shame since he is starting to get better (and will get prohibitively expensive if he gets much better).

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-18-2012, 02:22 AM
Leake. Easily.

HokieRed
08-20-2012, 09:50 PM
Bailey.

Vottomatic
08-20-2012, 09:58 PM
Bailey.

Timing is everything. :laugh:

Matt700wlw
08-20-2012, 10:14 PM
The problem is total innings pitched...

TOBTTReds
08-20-2012, 10:23 PM
IMO, anyone who says it's "easy" is completely biased or not paying attention.

Wonderful Monds
08-20-2012, 10:26 PM
IMO, anyone who says it's "easy" is completely biased or not paying attention.

To be honest, it's pretty easy for me, and I would take Homer. This has nothing to do with tonight or even that I don't like Mike Leake. But they're pretty much the same pitcher right now, results wise. But Homer has a higher ceiling, and I think Mike basically is what he is. I don't think Mike Leake has the ability to be a pitcher like Homer was in July this year, and I think Homer has the potential to be closer to that than what he is now.

Brutus
08-20-2012, 10:32 PM
To be honest, it's pretty easy for me, and I would take Homer. This has nothing to do with tonight or even that I don't like Mike Leake. But they're pretty much the same pitcher right now, results wise. But Homer has a higher ceiling, and I think Mike basically is what he is. I don't think Mike Leake has the ability to be a pitcher like Homer was in July this year, and I think Homer has the potential to be closer to that than what he is now.

Mike Leake is what he is, but yet Homer Bailey, after 1,000 innings and three years of regression/static pitching, isn't?

Bailey also is what he is. It's not impossible he improves, but it's time to start facing the reality this is who he is too. Good pitcher, decent strikeout rate, improved control, but sometimes erratic.

reds44
08-20-2012, 10:37 PM
I don't like either.

kaldaniels
08-20-2012, 10:47 PM
I don't like either.

Then you may want to go find another team to cheer for or resign yourself to the fact that you will never be happy with a rotation the Reds put forward.

_Sir_Charles_
08-20-2012, 10:49 PM
Even after tonight performance, I keep both. No question. People forget just how young these two guys are. Homer has a much higher ceiling IMO, but Leake has a much wider variety which fits into the rotation well (especially after Bronson leaves).

klw
08-20-2012, 10:57 PM
Didn't Leake throw a complete game just 5 days ago?

KittyDuran
08-20-2012, 11:02 PM
Didn't Leake throw a complete game just 5 days ago?

Don't bring up facts to confuse people! ;) The answer is yes, but as someone pointed out (in the game thread?) it was against the Mets-the same team that Homer lost to the next game. By that reasoning Homer should have a good game tomorrow.

KittyDuran
08-20-2012, 11:12 PM
Even after tonight performance, I keep both. No question. People forget just how young these two guys are. Homer has a much higher ceiling IMO, but Leake has a much wider variety which fits into the rotation well (especially after Bronson leaves).

I don't know about a higher ceiling but IMHO a power pitcher like Homer (and Cueto, Latos, Chapman) are the equivalent to thoroughbreds in horse racing. Just more "sexier". Whereas Leake and Arroyo are draft horses or mules - capable for getting the job done just not pretty or exciting.

KittyDuran
08-20-2012, 11:34 PM
Just caught the last part of the post game show w/Marty and Jeff. In effect they believe Leake is the odd man out especially in the post season. You know what you're going to get with Cueto, Latos and even Arroyo. Tomorrow's start will be huge for Homer.

CrackerJack
08-21-2012, 01:49 AM
Isn't there something to be said about Leake's age and shorter time in the majors, and need to build-up arm strength for this time of year still? (considering the fact he, as well as Homer, are in never-before territory with # of innings pitched)

Or is that not a factor at all for him? I want to keep both, frankly, they have everything to do with why the Reds are where they are. I know the question is "one or the other," but I wouldn't want to give up either of them.

Wonderful Monds
08-21-2012, 03:17 AM
Mike Leake is what he is, but yet Homer Bailey, after 1,000 innings and three years of regression/static pitching, isn't?

Bailey also is what he is. It's not impossible he improves, but it's time to start facing the reality this is who he is too. Good pitcher, decent strikeout rate, improved control, but sometimes erratic.

The idea is that whichever one you keep, at bare minimum you're going to get the same pitcher, but Bailey has more to offer potentially.

As to why, I think just think Mike's stuff is going to keep his ceiling in the middle of the pack, and he's pretty much hit it. He's a softer tosser in a game where pitchers are throwing harder than ever and will continue to throw harder. Guys like him that rely so heavily on fine control will pretty much always be prone to getting blown up more often than other pitchers. He's a fine piece to have, he's basically an exactly average pitcher to have and that's pretty useful. But so is Homer, and his stuff raises his ceiling just a bit higher.

Brutus
08-21-2012, 03:20 AM
The idea is that whichever one you keep, at bare minimum you're going to get the same pitcher, but Bailey has more to offer potentially.

As to why, I think just think Mike's stuff is going to keep his ceiling in the middle of the pack, and he's pretty much hit it. He's a softer tosser in a game where pitchers are throwing harder than ever and will continue to throw harder. Guys like him that rely so heavily on fine control will pretty much always be prone to getting blown up more often than other pitchers. He's a fine piece to have, he's basically an exactly average pitcher to have and that's pretty useful. But so is Homer, and his stuff raises his ceiling just a bit higher.

Leake's career k/9 is 6.13, Homer's is 6.93. Not really that big of a difference.

I think the most interesting post in this thread was the one showing the game scores this year. People seem to have the perception that Homer, at his best, has a much higher ceiling than Leake. Interestingly, though, Leake has four of the top five game scores by either pitcher this season. In fact, Homer only has one game of more than eight strikeouts this year, so his best hasn't really been all that much better.

Wonderful Monds
08-21-2012, 03:29 AM
Leake's career k/9 is 6.13, Homer's is 6.93. Not really that big of a difference.

I think the most interesting post in this thread was the one showing the game scores this year. People seem to have the perception that Homer, at his best, has a much higher ceiling than Leake. Interestingly, though, Leake has four of the top five game scores by either pitcher this season. In fact, Homer only has one game of more than eight strikeouts this year, so his best hasn't really been all that much better.

The key on that last part is "this year."

As far as Homer's career K rate goes, I really don't care about anything but his past 3 years, and in that time it's been 7.4. Almost a K and half better than Leake.

If we're talking about his ceiling, I don't necessarily consider game scores and all that to factor too heavily in that equation. It's not about what he's done, but what can he do in the future. And from a scouting perspective, I have to give the edge to Bailey. He just has better pitches than Leake. Mike is going to be the Bronson Arroyo type, surviving on guts and guile, and with those guys there are going to be times when that just isn't enough.

reds44
08-21-2012, 03:38 AM
The key on that last part is "this year."

As far as Homer's career K rate goes, I really don't care about anything but his past 3 years, and in that time it's been 7.4. Almost a K and half better than Leake.

If we're talking about his ceiling, I don't necessarily consider game scores and all that to factor too heavily in that equation. It's not about what he's done, but what can he do in the future. And from a scouting perspective, I have to give the edge to Bailey. He just has better pitches than Leake. Mike is going to be the Bronson Arroyo type, surviving on guts and guile, and with those guys there are going to be times when that just isn't enough.
8.3
7.2
6.8

It keeps going south.

reds44
08-21-2012, 03:39 AM
Then you may want to go find another team to cheer for or resign yourself to the fact that you will never be happy with a rotation the Reds put forward.
Where did I say I wasn't happy with the Reds rotation? I don't think either of them will be anything more than a "guy" moving forward.

Brutus
08-21-2012, 03:40 AM
The key on that last part is "this year."

As far as Homer's career K rate goes, I really don't care about anything but his past 3 years, and in that time it's been 7.4. Almost a K and half better than Leake.

If we're talking about his ceiling, I don't necessarily consider game scores and all that to factor too heavily in that equation. It's not about what he's done, but what can he do in the future. And from a scouting perspective, I have to give the edge to Bailey. He just has better pitches than Leake. Mike is going to be the Bronson Arroyo type, surviving on guts and guile, and with those guys there are going to be times when that just isn't enough.

As reds44 already beat me to the punch in saying, Bailey's k-rate has gone down about 1.5 in the past two years. It's going the wrong direction to support the argument that he's more trustworthy striking guys out.

Wonderful Monds
08-21-2012, 03:55 AM
As reds44 already beat me to the punch in saying, Bailey's k-rate has gone down about 1.5 in the past two years. It's going the wrong direction to support the argument that he's more trustworthy striking guys out.

Thing is, Homer still has done it before, and recently. He hasn't appeared to lose any velocity, so I think if I had to speculate, it's because Homer still had times where he doesn't know what to do or how to pitch. You can teach a thrower how to pitch. You can't teach a guy who's a soft tosser how to throw harder.

Homer has displayed the ability to strike people out in the reasonably recent past and hasnt displayed any physical reason why he should not be able to anymore, so I don't think it's all that far fetched to suggest he can still do it.

reds44
08-21-2012, 04:07 AM
Thing is, Homer still has done it before, and recently. He hasn't appeared to lose any velocity, so I think if I had to speculate, it's because Homer still had times where he doesn't know what to do or how to pitch. You can teach a thrower how to pitch. You can't teach a guy who's a soft tosser how to throw harder.

Homer has displayed the ability to strike people out in the reasonably recent past and hasnt displayed any physical reason why he should not be able to anymore, so I don't think it's all that far fetched to suggest he can still do it.
His K/9 by year:

5.6 (less than 50 innings)
4.5 (less than 40 innings)
6.8
8.3
7.2
6.8

His 6.8 this year is pretty much right at his career average (6.9).

Leake's is 6.1.

kaldaniels
08-21-2012, 09:43 AM
Where did I say I wasn't happy with the Reds rotation? I don't think either of them will be anything more than a "guy" moving forward.

Ok I can get that. I took the quote that you didn't like 40% of the starting rotation at face value, nothing more.

Vottomatic
08-21-2012, 10:05 AM
But Leake has 2 HR's. :thumbup: :beerme: :p

Kc61
08-21-2012, 10:08 AM
As many are aware, Fangraphs has "pitch value" stats. Homer's fastball is not very effective this season by this measure.

wFB uses linear weights to determine how many runs are saved by the use of the pitcher's fastball. Chapman, for example has saved 17.8 runs, Cueto 17.6 using the fastball.

Bailey's fastball, by this measure, has saved -14.1 runs.

Now, that stat may not be entirely fair because Homer has probably thrown many fastballs this year and it is a counting stat. So there's also a wFB/C stat which standardizes the results per 100 pitches. Chapman is +2.02 by that measure and Cueto is +1.20, again focused on the fastball.

Bailey's fastball, by this standardized measure, has saved -.95 runs.

Others may understand these stats better, but it seems to me that a power pitcher needs a more effective fastball and this could correlate to the relatively low K rate so far for Homer. I was surprised Homer's fastball did not grade out higher.

REDREAD
08-21-2012, 10:20 AM
Just caught the last part of the post game show w/Marty and Jeff. In effect they believe Leake is the odd man out especially in the post season. You know what you're going to get with Cueto, Latos and even Arroyo. Tomorrow's start will be huge for Homer.

Yea, I caught part of them talking about it during the game.
Of course, I don't put a lot of stock into Marty's thoughts.. Marty was annoyed Leake could not hold the lead.. I'm sure Marty will say Homer will be left off the roster after his next rough start. :laugh: Marty doesn't think much of either guy.

But it raises an interesting question.. The broadcasters claimed Leake couldn't pitch out of the pen.. I'm not sure that's accurate, but let's assume it is.. They say Homer can't pitch out of the pen either. Would it make sense to drop one of Leake/Homer off the playoff roster? I'm not sure it does.. I think they'd have to replace them with a pitcher that is on the DL on Aug 31. (I'm assuming neither Homer or Leake will be injured before then).. So that just means replacing them with Bray or Masset.. Not really sure that's an upgrade. Bray has been ineffective all year, and I think Masset is a lost cause for this year..

If they could replace one of Homer/Leake with a position player, maybe that makes sense.. who would you guys pick? Cairo, Billy Hamilton? Not really sure there's anyone in the organization worth considering (I'm assuming Cairo is the odd man out when Votto is healthy). I'm guessing if the Reds really wanted to, they could DL LeCure at the end of August and bring up a position player to replace him and then have the flexibility to replace Homer/Leake with a position player through roster juggling, but I'm not 100% sure..

PickOff
08-21-2012, 10:38 AM
Leake. I'm already on record advocating a trade of Bailey in the offseason. His splits suggest he would be worth more to teams that don't play half their games in GAPB.

_Sir_Charles_
08-21-2012, 12:38 PM
8.3
7.2
6.8

It keeps going south.

That's because he's learning from Cueto's example. He's not trying to punch everyone out. He's learning to trust that defense behind him and just pound the zone. Check out his BB rates.

5.6
4.2
4.1
3.3
2.3
2.6

I can live with a lower K rate as long as the BB's go down with them. What's hurt Homer this year (and last) are his HR's allowed. He seems to be going to his breaking balls quite a bit more of late, mixing things up like that should correct that HR rate some I'd think. I'm not worried about Homer in the least.

Kc61
08-21-2012, 01:31 PM
That's because he's learning from Cueto's example. He's not trying to punch everyone out. He's learning to trust that defense behind him and just pound the zone. Check out his BB rates.

5.6
4.2
4.1
3.3
2.3
2.6

I can live with a lower K rate as long as the BB's go down with them. What's hurt Homer this year (and last) are his HR's allowed. He seems to be going to his breaking balls quite a bit more of late, mixing things up like that should correct that HR rate some I'd think. I'm not worried about Homer in the least.

Homer's strikeout rate is nothing special. His walk rate per nine innings of 2.63 is good, but far from the leaders. (Cueto's is 1.96 and he's 12th in the NL among pitchers with 100 innings.)

Unlike Cueto, Homer doesn't throw ground balls at a high rate. Cueto is 18th in ground ball percentage among NL pitchers with 100 innings, Homer is 47th.

So the question is this - what is Homer's path to success? Not strikeouts apparently. Not ground balls apparently.

Low walk rate? A 2.63/9 walk rate is good, but it's not special, it's not enough to make you a winner absent some other superior ability.

Homer has pitched some great games this year, but based on current numbers I'm struggling to see how it all turns out for the better. I always thought he would be a power pitcher, but if not he needs to find some other path to success, which I don't yet see in his numbers.

He's still young and has a great arm, maybe something will click in the near future.

Tadasimha
08-21-2012, 05:06 PM
I actually think both Homer and Leake could improve somewhat.

Really, all either of them has to do is gain some consistency and reduce the number of horrible starts and they are a solid #3. Hard to say which was is going to actually do that (maybe neither will). Both have their share of "off nights", which really keeps them in the BOR catagory.

I'm guessing most of us wouldn't mind either Leake or Homer starting a playoff game if we knew in advance that they would have a good night.. both are capable, just need to reduce the number of stinkers.

This. Consistency has been the bane of both guys. When they're on, they both have the ability to control a game and dominate another team (in different ways). Both guys have the ability to be 15 game winners in the next couple of seasons.

I'd keep both of them, personally. I'd also keep Chapman as the closer and plan to move either Corinco or Cingrani (which ever develops faster) into the starting rotation in 2014 once Arroyo's contract is done.

Tom Servo
08-22-2012, 12:00 AM
So if I'm following this thread correctly we're all going to say Homer now, right? :)

Brutus
08-22-2012, 12:09 AM
So if I'm following this thread correctly we're all going to say Homer now, right? :)

I get the impression most people already have their own preference, it's just a matter of how vocal they are depending on the latest start(s).

oregonred
08-22-2012, 12:10 AM
Homer is a year closer to FA so the decision needs to be made quickly on trying to extend him now. He is getting expensive, very quickly...

I'm on record of being on board with Leake if the Reds can get him to a very reasonable contract to buy out years 1-2 of FA in 2016 and/or 2017. Probably a year early on this decision for Leake, but thinking they might be able to get a club friendly deal for '16 and '17 in exchange for guaranteed money. Poor roster management last year when he went to Louisville and was called up early caused Leake's FA year to move up from 2017 to 2016. I just think he will be a solid #3 kind of guy, durable, great D and offense, efficient PA/IP with occassional (but not unrealistic) upside to outduel a Matt Cain or RA Dickey when needed with a gem.

Leake as a #5 going forward for the Reds staff (worst case) would not be a bad floor for the rotation. Assuming Cueto, Latos anchor the top.

REDREAD
08-22-2012, 01:07 AM
I guess I'm really not that worried about Homer's salary.
His inconsistent performance doesn't really give him a lot of ammo for arbitration.
Career: 4.71 ERA. This year, 4.18..
This isn't putting Homer down, but I can't see him getting more than 1 or 1.5 million raise next year.

HokieRed
08-22-2012, 08:32 AM
Actually I expect to see both of them back next year. The interesting question still will be where Chapman is used, rotation or pen. I don't see either Bailey or Leake--especially Leake--being valuable enough to be the center of a package for a real offensive difference maker. And I think Walt's far too aware of the value of starting pitching to deal either one of them for anything less.

cumberlandreds
08-22-2012, 11:17 AM
So if I'm following this thread correctly we're all going to say Homer now, right? :)

Hey! I'm a fan and I reserve the right to change my vote on a daily basis. ;)

CySeymour
08-22-2012, 11:43 AM
How much of a help was it for Homer having Hannigan catching him for a game?

cumberlandreds
08-22-2012, 12:20 PM
How much of a help was it for Homer having Hannigan catching him for a game?

I wondered that too. I noticed last year the few times Hanigan caught Volquez he seemed better. Maybe just a coincidence?

Degenerate39
08-22-2012, 12:44 PM
How much of a help was it for Homer having Hannigan catching him for a game?

I was thinking the same thing. Is Hanigan THAT much better at handling pitchers than Mes?

nemesis
08-22-2012, 01:00 PM
I haven't read the whole thread, and maybe it's been brought up before, but to me Homer has Kyle Loshe syndrome.

Great arm, good arsenal of pitches but something isn't quite clicking...

I just know one day, just like Loshe, it will. So I have to place my chips on him.

I like Leake alot also. But IMO he is Arroyo at best in his prime. Which would be great. But he could Scott Scudder in Leake clothing at his worst.

There is great value in moving him to a prospect rich Mid Market team, with limited payroll for a couple really good prospects when you have Chapman, Corcino, Cingrani and Stephenson in the wings.

WebScorpion
08-23-2012, 12:28 AM
How much of a help was it for Homer having Hannigan catching him for a game?Both Homer and Price said they'd corrected a problem in his delivery. Although I think Hanigan calls a better game than Mesoraco at this point in their careers, I don't think that was responsible for the difference in Homer's performance.

11larkin11
08-23-2012, 01:30 AM
I haven't read the whole thread, and maybe it's been brought up before, but to me Homer has Kyle Loshe syndrome.

Great arm, good arsenal of pitches but something isn't quite clicking...

I just know one day, just like Loshe, it will. So I have to place my chips on him.

I like Leake alot also. But IMO he is Arroyo at best in his prime. Which would be great. But he could Scott Scudder in Leake clothing at his worst.

There is great value in moving him to a prospect rich Mid Market team, with limited payroll for a couple really good prospects when you have Chapman, Corcino, Cingrani and Stephenson in the wings.

I'd be careful with that phrase...

CySeymour
08-23-2012, 10:20 AM
Both Homer and Price said they'd corrected a problem in his delivery. Although I think Hanigan calls a better game than Mesoraco at this point in their careers, I don't think that was responsible for the difference in Homer's performance.

Yeah, I heard that as well. I agree, the work with Price had more to do with it then anything. But I also feel he may have benefited from having Hanny back there for a game.

dougdirt
08-23-2012, 12:34 PM
Both Homer and Price said they'd corrected a problem in his delivery. Although I think Hanigan calls a better game than Mesoraco at this point in their careers, I don't think that was responsible for the difference in Homer's performance.

Right. Homer has multiple starts just like the last one, or better, with Mesoraco behind the plate this season.

nemesis
08-23-2012, 01:04 PM
I'd be careful with that phrase...

Lol...

:beerme:

CrackerJack
08-26-2012, 02:02 AM
2 great starts by Leake out of 3 late in the season at a very young age, he's an enigma, or another Arroyo, and I like Arroyo types...rotation cement that can give you an 8 inning gem twice a month, and bounce back from a bad start with flying colors 5 days later routinely.

It is nice having Homer and Leake at the back end of the rotation right now.

Yet I get the feeling Leake is capable of frustrating just about any team's lineup in the post season on a good night, and do it without a lot of stress.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 03:13 AM
The unfortunate thing is the debate about "Leake or Homer" is a pointless, polarizing exercise. It's truthfully not even one that's necessary at this time (although it might be next season if Chapman goes back to the rotation). It's really a dividing topic, and I think it stems from the fact that, for some reason, we feel the need to tear someone else down in order to build someone up.

Funniest part about it is that 90% of Major League teams would be thrilled to have Leake/Homer as their 4/5 starters (or 5/4 depending on your viewpoint). That we're even having this debate says a lot about where the Reds have come. It sure beats the heck out of Jimmy Haynes and Jeff Austin, Seth Etherton, Elizardo Ramirez, etc.

fearofpopvol1
08-26-2012, 05:33 AM
In a perfect world, I'd like to see Chapman go to the rotation next year and Arroyo dealt and Bailey/Leake at the backend of the rotation. Arroyo is having a pretty nice season. A bounceback one in which none of us expected I think, but he's getting paid too much for what he provides. A team needing pitching (if he'd accept the trade) may be willing to take him on a 1 year deal after this season. Walt seems to be high on Arroyo though so that may not be an option. Leake has essentially provided the exact same production this year as Arroyo (if looking at WAR) and costs a lot less.

One possible option...what about trading both Bailey and Leake for a pitcher that is an upgrade who may be under control for a few years to shore up the rotation? You could plug Chapman in and let Arroyo play out his contract and then let Corcino or Cingrani step in after next season.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 08:35 AM
Bailey pitched better last time because Hanigan was behind the plate.

I'm glad Mez is in Louisville, so we know we get Hanigan today. Mez wasn't cutting it.

Hopefully we see good Bailey today and bad Wainwright.

RANDY IN INDY
08-26-2012, 11:20 AM
After watching Leake in person yesterday, I will say that he is one heck of an athlete. The kid is a baseball player.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 01:23 PM
Bailey pitched better last time because Hanigan was behind the plate.

I'm glad Mez is in Louisville, so we know we get Hanigan today. Mez wasn't cutting it.

Hopefully we see good Bailey today and bad Wainwright.

No, he didn't. Bailey was better than he has ever been before for the first 4 months of this season with Mesoraco behind the plate, and then he hits some struggles and it is Mesoraco's fault?

Pitchers are good because of them. Not because of the catcher.

VR
08-26-2012, 01:51 PM
Hanigan has great value to this pitching staff. Mes is still a work in progress, which is where most expected him to be.

I think Leake still has a lot of potential if he can improve his control slightly. He's a fearless pitcher much like Maddux. Maddux enjoyed seasons w/ high K rates early in his career, but had great success even when they fell dramatically thanks to his fantastic walk rates.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 02:57 PM
No, he didn't. Bailey was better than he has ever been before for the first 4 months of this season with Mesoraco behind the plate, and then he hits some struggles and it is Mesoraco's fault?

Pitchers are good because of them. Not because of the catcher.

That's your opinion.

There's a reason Mez is in Louisville.

nate
08-26-2012, 03:00 PM
That's your opinion.

There's a reason Mez is in Louisville.

I doubt it's primarily due to how he handles the pitching staff.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 03:01 PM
That's your opinion.

There's a reason Mez is in Louisville.

Yeah, because good catchers just follow good pitchers around the league regardless of free agency or trades, or injuries to those catchers.... Oh, they don't? And good pitchers still keep pitching like good pitchers? Hmm, very strange.

Wonderful Monds
08-26-2012, 03:03 PM
Yeah, because good catchers just follow good pitchers around the league regardless of free agency or trades, or injuries to those catchers.... Oh, they don't? And good pitchers still keep pitching like good pitchers? Hmm, very strange.

It's not that black and white. Hanigan likely has the ability to make a good pitcher even better.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 03:06 PM
It's not that black and white. Hanigan likely has the ability to make a good pitcher even better.

I agree.... but we are talking about an insanely small amount over a 1 game sample. Over 35 games, yeah, we will probably see a small difference (say 10% in ERA). In 1 game? You probably aren't going to see it.

Wonderful Monds
08-26-2012, 03:07 PM
I agree.... but we are talking about an insanely small amount over a 1 game sample. Over 35 games, yeah, we will probably see a small difference (say 10% in ERA). In 1 game? You probably aren't going to see it.

Oh yeah, I'll agree with that.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 03:07 PM
Yeah, because good catchers just follow good pitchers around the league regardless of free agency or trades, or injuries to those catchers.... Oh, they don't? And good pitchers still keep pitching like good pitchers? Hmm, very strange.

Reds management sent him to Louisville. That's the reason.

And I'll take their opinions over yours, sorry.

And the way Homer is pitching today, it obviously doesn't matter who's catching. I'll take Leake over him. Homer has no out pitch and as Welsh or Brantley have said on many occasions, pitches scared in GABP.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 03:07 PM
I agree.... but we are talking about an insanely small amount over a 1 game sample. Over 35 games, yeah, we will probably see a small difference (say 10% in ERA). In 1 game? You probably aren't going to see it.

You could see it, but it would be next to impossible to differentiate.

On Mesoraco, I think the Reds basically said they sent him down because of his hitting and lack of confidence more than anything.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 03:15 PM
Reds management sent him to Louisville. That's the reason.

And I'll take their opinions over yours, sorry.

And the way Homer is pitching today, it obviously doesn't matter who's catching. I'll take Leake over him. Homer has no out pitch and as Welsh or Brantley have said on many occasions, pitches scared in GABP.

Homer Baileys slider continues to be one of the best sliders in the game over the last two years. The idea that he doesn't have an out pitch continues to befuddle me. The problem is, his fastball simply isn't a good pitch anymore.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 05:00 PM
Homer Baileys slider continues to be one of the best sliders in the game over the last two years. The idea that he doesn't have an out pitch continues to befuddle me. The problem is, his fastball simply isn't a good pitch anymore.

So we've got a 26 year old pitcher who's lost his fastball. Great.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 06:48 PM
So we've got a 26 year old pitcher who's lost his fastball. Great.

Bailey's fastball hasn't been good since 2010. I honestly don't know why that is though.

jojo
08-26-2012, 11:03 PM
By the end of the season, Homer will have accumulated about 4 years service time and roughly 650 IP. As a home grown arm, that's a success story and we should probably always remember that context.

But so far his performance has not come close to matching his projection. From that standpoint, he's been a disappointment. Unless he turns into King Felix over September and the playoffs, he'll be roughly 4 years in with a track record of a below average starting pitcher.

REDREAD
08-27-2012, 02:36 PM
In a perfect world, I'd like to see Chapman go to the rotation next year and Arroyo dealt and Bailey/Leake at the backend of the rotation. Arroyo is having a pretty nice season. A bounceback one in which none of us expected I think, but he's getting paid too much for what he provides. .

IMO, Bronson has earned every penny of his contract this year.
3.87 ERA.. on pace for about 200 IP.. Pitched great in the beginning of the year when the other guys were struggling.

Now granted, a team like the Reds can't afford to have 5 Arroyos in their rotation, but they can keep one.

If the playoffs started tommorrow, I'd really be tempted to put Arroyo in the #3 slot now, mainly because I think he's a safer bet not to get blown out of the water.. Leake and Homer are both bigger risks at this point, IMO.

If Arroyo can give us this level of production next year (not a given), this was a great extension, IMO. Yep, he stunk last year due to mono, other injuries, and perhaps not realizing his FB lost some zip.. but he turned it around this year, when we really needed him to ..

REDREAD
08-27-2012, 02:40 PM
Homer Baileys slider continues to be one of the best sliders in the game over the last two years. The idea that he doesn't have an out pitch continues to befuddle me. The problem is, his fastball simply isn't a good pitch anymore.

I'm not disagreeing with you.
How often does Homer use the slider on a 2 strike count to attempt to put the batter away? (Is there even a way to figure that out).
I think people have the perception that Homer gets to 2 strike counts and can't put the batter away. I'm not saying that I think that way.. I know with all pitchers, the mistakes are easier to remember.. I'm just curious.. do you think he's utilizing that great slider often enough.. (Anyone else is welcome to comment). I have listened to most of Homer's starts on the radio, so I really have no idea how often he uses his slider (the radio guys really don't call the pitch the way Welsh does on TV).

fearofpopvol1
08-27-2012, 04:22 PM
IMO, Bronson has earned every penny of his contract this year.
3.87 ERA.. on pace for about 200 IP.. Pitched great in the beginning of the year when the other guys were struggling.

Now granted, a team like the Reds can't afford to have 5 Arroyos in their rotation, but they can keep one.

If the playoffs started tommorrow, I'd really be tempted to put Arroyo in the #3 slot now, mainly because I think he's a safer bet not to get blown out of the water.. Leake and Homer are both bigger risks at this point, IMO.

If Arroyo can give us this level of production next year (not a given), this was a great extension, IMO. Yep, he stunk last year due to mono, other injuries, and perhaps not realizing his FB lost some zip.. but he turned it around this year, when we really needed him to ..

Arroyo is benefiting from a career low in walks it appears. Can he sustain that for the rest of the year? It's not that he's being vastly overpaid, it's that putting Chapman in his place, who is already paid for, makes a lot of sense. The money being used to pay Arroyo could free up salary to go out and get a better CF, improve the bullpen or buy a better utility infielder. Or a combination.

traderumor
08-27-2012, 04:25 PM
Bailey gave up a blast to Craig. The rest was random, hole finding singles. That continued off Marshall. Wasn't our day. The most random game in the universe also makes it the most loveable and unpredictable. The Cardinals offense is good, but I'm not sure how much of it is gained off bouncers between the 3/4 and 5/6 holes. Cueto probably would have had a similar day.

cincrazy
08-27-2012, 06:18 PM
I remember a time not too long ago when we didn't have a single pitcher as good as either Leake or Bailey. I'm more than ok with the fact that those are our 4 and 5 starters. We've come a long way, I'd say.

REDREAD
08-27-2012, 06:35 PM
Arroyo is benefiting from a career low in walks it appears. Can he sustain that for the rest of the year? It's not that he's being vastly overpaid, it's that putting Chapman in his place, who is already paid for, makes a lot of sense. The money being used to pay Arroyo could free up salary to go out and get a better CF, improve the bullpen or buy a better utility infielder. Or a combination.

Well hypothetically, if Arroyo could be traded at any time during this season, I wouldn't do it.
He's far too valuable, plus the Reds aren't exactly in a budget crunch, so why even worry about it?

If Chapman was moved to the rotation, we'd have Marshall and Broxton closing now. And then we'd have Arrondo or Hoover as a setup guy.

How many innings could Chapman gone as a starter this year? Surely not 200 as Bronson is on pace for.. Is it worth it, if we have to get significant innings out of Redmond to bail out Chapman?

The starters have been able to keep the bullpen from being overworked this year. Arroyo was a big part of it..

Again, since the team isn't in a budget crunch, I see no reason to worry about Arroyo's salary at this point, since he's been a solid contributor.

I'd rather have Arroyo than Span too (Span seems to have been the most popular CF upgrade).

fearofpopvol1
08-27-2012, 09:37 PM
Well hypothetically, if Arroyo could be traded at any time during this season, I wouldn't do it.
He's far too valuable, plus the Reds aren't exactly in a budget crunch, so why even worry about it?

If Chapman was moved to the rotation, we'd have Marshall and Broxton closing now. And then we'd have Arrondo or Hoover as a setup guy.

How many innings could Chapman gone as a starter this year? Surely not 200 as Bronson is on pace for.. Is it worth it, if we have to get significant innings out of Redmond to bail out Chapman?

The starters have been able to keep the bullpen from being overworked this year. Arroyo was a big part of it..

Again, since the team isn't in a budget crunch, I see no reason to worry about Arroyo's salary at this point, since he's been a solid contributor.

I'd rather have Arroyo than Span too (Span seems to have been the most popular CF upgrade).

I would not trade Arroyo trade Arroyo in the 2012 season (there's only a few days left anyway). If that wasn't clear before, then let me clear the air now. I'm talking about for next season.

As for Chapman and innings, make him the 5th starter. Chapman will be 25 next season, so he should be durable enough for the 5th starter spot. Give him rests or breaks when need be. Let LeCure or Simon pitch a game if necessary here and there.

We also have an option for Madson next year, which may be picked up. The money that would come off the books for Arroyo could be used to pluck another bullpen arm or two, which I think will be needed. Or it could be used to go out and get a better utility infielder and/or a CFer possibly. Even though the Reds have money coming off the books next year, you have a lot of players due raises as well. Money at some point does become an issue, and if the Reds can improve the team in other areas with that extra money, it sounds like a good plan to me.

REDREAD
08-28-2012, 11:06 AM
I would not trade Arroyo trade Arroyo in the 2012 season (there's only a few days left anyway). If that wasn't clear before, then let me clear the air now. I'm talking about for next season.

We also have an option for Madson next year, which may be picked up. The money that would come off the books for Arroyo could be used to pluck another bullpen arm or two, which I think will be needed..

Ok, sorry I misunderstood you.
I guess that plan makes sense if you think Arroyo is going to be less effective next year, but since he's a junkball pitcher, I think he can maintain this level of production next year.

If we pick up Madson's option next year and subtract Arroyo's salary, I don't think there's much financial gain.. Madson's option is about 11 million, if I remember. That seems like a huge gamble for a guy coming off arm surgery.
I really only want Madson for much less money. We just don't know how he'll recover..

I guess it's just a matter of comfort level. Maybe this is blasphemy, but there's no guarantee that Chapman will be as good of a starter as Arroyo next year. Chapman is free agent eligible in 2017 .. 4 seasons left.. Why waste 1-2 of those years grooming him to be a starter for another team? Let's just enjoy him as the most dominant closer in the game.

Sure, we could move Chapman into the pen and sign a few bullpen arms, which maybe saves 4-5 million at the most, but it causes more uncertainty.
I want to keep this rotation intact next year. Keep Chapman in the pen too.
Why tamper with the winning formula, unless Walt is somehow able to get Cole Hammels or someone like that to upgrade Arroyo's slot.

Vottomatic
08-28-2012, 11:10 AM
I look at results, and Arroyo has been surprisingly good. Obviously, last season was a blip.

cumberlandreds
09-29-2012, 12:57 AM
Leake; I think he will soon become an innings eater much like Arroyo. Every team can use durable pitchers like this.
Bailey just doesn't seem to be able to be consisent for a whole season. He's been better this season. But lately he's reverted back to Bad Bailey. Also like others have pointed out he has had shoulder issues. I'm wondering if that shoulder isn't barking a little now and he's not saying anything.


Can I change my vote? :laugh:

Vottomatic
09-29-2012, 06:12 AM
Damn. I became a Homer fan over the last month and he rewarded me with tonight.

On the postseason starter thread I've consistently wanted him to start game 2.

I don't want to trade Bailey or Leake. They should only get better. This starting rotation is young and good. All Walt needs to do is tweak the starting position lineup and this could be a dynasty. Seriously.

Re-sign Broxton and Madson. The bullpen is sound.

For a small market team, this is really impressive as an organization.

wlf WV
09-29-2012, 01:52 PM
It seems Homer has found an effective fastball.I believe it was always there,just needed to know when and where to throw it.I still think Hanigan is vastly underrated by most,although Homer's success is mostly his own doing.
The unfortunate thing is the debate about "Leake or Homer" is a pointless, polarizing exercise. It's truthfully not even one that's necessary at this time (although it might be next season if Chapman goes back to the rotation). It's really a dividing topic, and I think it stems from the fact that, for some reason, we feel the need to tear someone else down in order to build someone up.

Funniest part about it is that 90% of Major League teams would be thrilled to have Leake/Homer as their 4/5 starters (or 5/4 depending on your viewpoint). That we're even having this debate says a lot about where the Reds have come. It sure beats the heck out of Jimmy Haynes and Jeff Austin, Seth Etherton, Elizardo Ramirez, etc.

I agree Brutus,we're blessed to even be having this conversation.It's like weather forecasters;if we have the same weather 3 days in a row(regardless of what it is),they will find controversy to stir up the audience.

jojo
09-29-2012, 10:15 PM
Dump Leake. Not because Homer has taken a dramatic step forward (though 200 IP is significant). But because Leake is a HR tee who has yet to have an above average season as a major leaguer.

kaldaniels
09-29-2012, 10:31 PM
Dump Leake. Not because Homer has taken a dramatic step forward (though 200 IP is significant). But because Leake is a HR tee who has yet to have an above average season as a major leaguer.

You'll probably inflame some on here with that choice of words, but you have a point. 3 full seasons under Leake's belt, with this being his worst if I'm not mistaken, he kinda is what he is, though as a fan I love to watch his non-pitching skills.

That said I'm 100% fine with him as my #5 guy when you look around the rest of the league.

Brutus
09-29-2012, 10:55 PM
Leake has a GB:FB ratio of 2:1. If you believe that Leake has the ability to get "teed" for homers more often on flyballs than every other pitcher in the history of baseball, more power to you.

His career road ERA, which seems to be a pretty good measure of a pitcher lifetime as it's theoretically environment-neutral, is 3.90. His FIP mostly agrees with that (4.03).

Not bad for a tee.

Scrap Irony
09-29-2012, 11:13 PM
He's tied for 94th in WAR (at 1.5) among 156 starters with the most IP.

In the National League, he's tied for 50th.

Interestingly, according to WAR, he's been more valuable than Edison Volquez and Aaron Harang, both of whom are immediately below him on the WAR list.

As a fifth starter, that's some serious value.

757690
09-29-2012, 11:17 PM
Dump Leake. Not because Homer has taken a dramatic step forward (though 200 IP is significant). But because Leake is a HR tee who has yet to have an above average season as a major leaguer.

Leake is two years you get than Bailey. At the same point in his career, Bailey nada 5.09 ERA and everyone was asking his detractors to be patient. Leake, except for a 2 game minor league stint in 2011, has been learning on the job his entire professional career.

Any reason not to be patient with Leake?

Tom Servo
09-29-2012, 11:30 PM
I think Leake has more trade value, therefore he is the one I would trade.

KittyDuran
09-29-2012, 11:30 PM
Leake is two years you get than Bailey. At the same point in his career, Bailey nada 5.09 ERA and everyone was asking his detractors to be patient. Leake, except for a 2 game minor league stint in 2011, has been learning on the job his entire professional career.

Any reason not to be patient with Leake?Leake doesn't blow anyone away with his pitches? ;) IMHO, and I've mentioned this before, despite both Bailey and Leake being first round draft choices, Homer was more anticipated - Leake just had a great ST in 2010 and got into the majors and there was no build-up and not much was really expected of him. I remember not only watching Homer in Dayton, but getting excited about him getting to the bigs (pretty much like Dunn). Heck, they even had t-shirts out the first week IIRC (saw a few last Sunday). There is also the Leake t-shirt incident and what some think is a major character flaw and immaturity issue. Plus I get a feeling that some have met Mike and maybe he's comes across as a big jerk... :confused:

Just my .02 cents...

757690
09-30-2012, 12:03 AM
Leake doesn't blow anyone away with his pitches? ;) IMHO, and I've mentioned this before, despite both Bailey and Leake being first round draft choices, Homer was more anticipated - Leake just had a great ST in 2010 and got into the majors and there was no build-up and not much was really expected of him. I remember not only watching Homer in Dayton, but getting excited about him getting to the bigs (pretty much like Dunn). Heck, they even had t-shirts out the first week IIRC (saw a few last Sunday). There is also the Leake t-shirt incident and what some think is a major character flaw and immaturity issue. Plus I get a feeling that some have met Mike and maybe he's comes across as a big jerk... :confused:

Just my .02 cents...

That's a great psychological analysis of why people have been more patient with Homer, and it makes sense. But it's not that logical, lol. And if the Reds trade Leake, what are you going to do with your lucky t-shirt? ;)

Jefferson24
09-30-2012, 12:11 AM
thankfully neither have to go and will hopefully they only get better next year, and that is a real good thing.

KittyDuran
09-30-2012, 12:27 AM
That's a great psychological analysis of why people have been more patient with Homer, and it makes sense. But it's not that logical, lol. And if the Reds trade Leake, what are you going to do with your lucky t-shirt? ;)That t-shirt has been lucky about 50% of the time! ;) No, the analysis is not logical more of a gut feeling - all players have haters. I don't mean in a sense of poor performance they get the hate, it's something more vague... I personally have a hard time accepting that only because I just want whoever is wearing the wishbone "C" to do a good job and help the team win.

KittyDuran
09-30-2012, 12:28 AM
thankfully neither have to go and will hopefully they only get better next year, and that is a real good thing.Are they both up for arbitration at the end of the year?

Brutus
09-30-2012, 12:31 AM
thankfully neither have to go and will hopefully they only get better next year, and that is a real good thing.

Neither have to, but if you accept, like I do, that Aroldis is and should be a starter going forward, it makes sense to capitalize on their value and trade one of them. I think you could get a starting LF or CF for either one.

KittyDuran
09-30-2012, 12:35 AM
Neither have to, but if you accept, like I do, that Aroldis is and should be a starter going forward, it makes sense to capitalize on their value and trade one of them. I think you could get a starting LF or CF for either one.Then I would think you'll get more for Bailey than Leake. Also, will they wait until after ST next year to trade - after seeing if Chapman can be effective as a starter?

Brutus
09-30-2012, 01:03 AM
Then I would think you'll get more for Bailey than Leake. Also, will they wait until after ST next year to trade - after seeing if Chapman can be effective as a starter?

I agree with Bailey having slightly more trade value, probably.

That said, Homer doesn't have options and Leake would have to be optioned in the spring as his option clock expires the first week of April 2013 or he'd be exposed to waivers. And I don't see them optioning him anyhow.

I just don't see the Reds keeping either guy in the bullpen, as that would seem redundant and not that great a value. So I think they're better off just trading them. Worst case scenario, barring injury, it's not really likely Chapman will give them any less production as a starter than either of the other two, so the Reds aren't really gambling much by trading one of them. In the event something catastrophic happens, they'd only need to go out and get a fifth starter.

KittyDuran
09-30-2012, 01:08 AM
I agree with Bailey having slightly more trade value, probably.

That said, Homer doesn't have options and Leake would have to be optioned in the spring as his option clock expires the first week of April 2013 or he'd be exposed to waivers. And I don't see them optioning him anyhow.

I just don't see the Reds keeping either guy in the bullpen, as that would seem redundant and not that great a value. So I think they're better off just trading them. Worst case scenario, barring injury, it's not really likely Chapman will give them any less production as a starter than either of the other two, so the Reds aren't really gambling much by trading one of them. In the event something catastrophic happens, they'd only need to go out and get a fifth starter.So you're also eluding to Madson coming back as a closer (maybe even Broxton in that role)?

Jefferson24
09-30-2012, 01:10 AM
Neither have to, but if you accept, like I do, that Aroldis is and should be a starter going forward, it makes sense to capitalize on their value and trade one of them. I think you could get a starting LF or CF for either one.

I'm not so sure you get the quality OF starter that would be such an improvement that it would be worth trading. I am also not convinced that Chapman will be that effective as a starter. The more exposed he gets the more pedestrian he becomes.

Jefferson24
09-30-2012, 01:23 AM
if you have to trade one of them it should be Bailey to the Pirates. He owns that ball park and they should pay a premium to get him given that fact.

Brutus
09-30-2012, 01:24 AM
So you're also eluding to Madson coming back as a closer (maybe even Broxton in that role)?

I think with Madson, Broxton and Masset all as possible options next season, along with Marshall and Hoover being back in the fray, I like the odds of finding someone to be closer.

Even if they only sign one of Broxton or Madson, I think they'll be in good shape.

Brutus
09-30-2012, 01:32 AM
I'm not so sure you get the quality OF starter that would be such an improvement that it would be worth trading. I am also not convinced that Chapman will be that effective as a starter. The more exposed he gets the more pedestrian he becomes.

Exposed? Pedestrian? Dude has a 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. I don't see where those terms should even be in the vocabulary.

There are no secrets. Teams know he's throwing a fastball 90% of the time. Yet he had a career-best 18.2% swinging strike rate this year -- second best only to Kimbrel. That's not pedestrian, that's flat out dominant.

Literally, if he only were half as effective as a starter, you're talking a 4:10 strikeout to walk ratio. That's amazing for a starting pitcher. That puts him in such company as: Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, Stephen Strasburg, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander and Madison Bumgarner who all own a rate right around 4.0. Again, pedestrian?

But that ignores the possibility of him using his changeup, which the Reds say he has (and used a few times later in the year) and it becomes a plus third pitch.

I just don't see the downside here. Aroldis could lose so much production and still be a better starter than Bailey or Leake. There is so much margin for error there. And let's not forget, he signed with the Reds as a starter. He pitched most of 2010 as a starter. This isn't much of an experiment.

The Reds could throw him in winter ball, as they intended to do last year, and be able to gauge his progress by spring. So they won't have to make a decision without having some sort of knowledge how it will turn out. Nonetheless, I think you're underestimating the value of Bailey. His stats, on the whole, are OK but most parks, Bailey would play pretty well (as his road ERA suggests). I find it hard to believe they couldn't get a decent starter in return for him.

757690
09-30-2012, 01:43 AM
I agree with Bailey having slightly more trade value, probably.

That said, Homer doesn't have options and Leake would have to be optioned in the spring as his option clock expires the first week of April 2013 or he'd be exposed to waivers. And I don't see them optioning him anyhow.

I just don't see the Reds keeping either guy in the bullpen, as that would seem redundant and not that great a value. So I think they're better off just trading them. Worst case scenario, barring injury, it's not really likely Chapman will give them any less production as a starter than either of the other two, so the Reds aren't really gambling much by trading one of them. In the event something catastrophic happens, they'd only need to go out and get a fifth starter.

I tonight Leake has most of his options left. He's only been sent down once.

And the Reds were lucky this year in only needing 5 (plus one) starters all year. Very few teams start the season with the five starters they penciled in at the start of spring training.

I'm guessing the Reds keep all their starters, try Chapman as a starter in spring training, and worry about a glut if and when it happens before opening day.

Brutus
09-30-2012, 01:45 AM
I tonight Leake has most of his options left. He's only been sent down once.

And the Reds were lucky this year in only needing 5 (plus one) starters all year. Very few teams start the season with the five starters they penciled in at the start of spring training.

I'm guessing the Reds keep all their starters, try Chapman as a starter in spring training, and worry about a glut if and when it happens before opening day.

It's not about how many options he has, it's that his 3-year option clock expires in the first week of April. That means to use one of his options, the Reds would have to clear waivers before optioning him.

757690
09-30-2012, 02:01 AM
It's not about how many options he has, it's that his 3-year option clock expires in the first week of April. That means to use one of his options, the Reds would have to clear waivers before optioning him.

Never heard of that. Where is that in the rule book? Not questioning you, just would like to have it for reference.

Brutus
09-30-2012, 02:15 AM
Never heard of that. Where is that in the rule book? Not questioning you, just would like to have it for reference.

No problem at all. It comes from the Major League Rules;

Rule 10 Waivers
10(b) When Waivers Are Required For Assignment


(3) Optional assignment waivers. Optional assignment waivers are required for an optional assignment from a Major League Club to a Minor League Club only if the date of assignment is three or more years after the date the player first reported to a Major League Club during a championship season. One year shall be deducted from the above three-year period for each season in which the player may have been charged with an option prior to the championship season in which the player first reports to a Major League Club.

Leake first reported, if memory serves me correctly, on April 10, 2010. So his clock would expire April 11, 2013. Since he did not burn an option in any prior season, no seasons would be deducted from that date as mentioned in the rule.

There have been rumors that while this is done out of procedure, there is a 'gentlemen's agreement' that other GMs don't make claims on option waivers. I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know the rule itself is strictly enforced.

757690
09-30-2012, 02:30 AM
No problem at all. It comes from the Major League Rules;

Rule 10 Waivers
10(b) When Waivers Are Required For Assignment



Leake first reported, if memory serves me correctly, on April 10, 2010. So his clock would expire April 11, 2013. Since he did not spend a whole season on optional assignment in any given year, no seasons would be deducted from that date as mentioned in the rule.

There have been rumors that while this is done out of procedure, there is a 'gentlemen's agreement' that other GMs don't make claims on option waivers. I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know the rule itself is strictly enforced.

Thanks. :)