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View Full Version : bring up billy hamilton on september 1



ol'Sparky
08-17-2012, 05:34 PM
advantages and disadvantages ?

i'd love to see that little son of a gun run all over them major league cathchers !!

:beerme:

Ironman92
08-17-2012, 05:47 PM
There are zero disadvantages on the fans' side....on the Reds side only getting his time in the bigs would be a negative...but nothing IMO.

Tuff Nut
08-17-2012, 07:13 PM
There are zero disadvantages on the fans' side....on the Reds side only getting his time in the bigs would be a negative...but nothing IMO.
There is ZERO negative. IF, Pensacola has no chance at capturing the 2nd half title, by Aug, 29th, it should be a no brainer that this kid is brought up............ NOW.....I'm by no means saying he will take a starting positon, but his base running skills, and the experienced gained, can and should go a long way.

Trajinous
08-17-2012, 07:52 PM
Hamilton should be called up. He would instantly be the best bench pinch runner in the league. That could help the Reds win a game or two. I don't see a downside especially with Valdez/Cairo being overwhelmingly below-average.

DocRed
08-17-2012, 11:29 PM
The one thing this team lacks is overall speed.

Ironman92
08-17-2012, 11:40 PM
The one thing this team lacks is overall speed.

I think Heisey/Paul/Chapman/Stubbs could take most teams best 4x100 team.

dougflynn23
08-19-2012, 06:36 PM
:) Bring him up on August 31st. If Rolen can't go or any other player gets injured, you have just made Hamilton post-season eligible.

scott91575
08-20-2012, 05:56 AM
:) Bring him up on August 31st. If Rolen can't go or any other player gets injured, you have just made Hamilton post-season eligible.

If you bring him up on the 31st, someone needs to go from the 25 man and then that person would not be eligible for the playoffs (plus most would have to go on waivers). If someone gets injured for the playoffs you still have the ability to replace them. They don't force you to play with 24 if someone gets hurt from the August 31st roster. Now, the replacement must play the same position and the commissioner needs to approve it. Yet no need to add Hamilton to the 25 man playoff roster for injury concerns.

Now, to the thought Hamilton should replace someone on the playoff roster...Hamilton is simply not ready to play defense at the major league level, and more than likely not ready with his bat. Heck, he may not be ready with his legs either. His caught stealing rate jumped when he went to AA (from 17% to about 24%). He is insanely aggressive and needs to learn a little more patience before he goes up against MLB catchers and pitchers. His caught stealing could easily jump over 30% where stealing becomes a negative. A team simply cannot take up a playoff roster spot with someone who can't play defense, may not be able to hit, and might not even be able to steal at a high rate. He is too much of an unknown.

Now, for the September call up, the only negatives are he needs to be added to the 40 man (so someone would need to be exposed to waivers) and service time issues. Both are somewhat minor, although with Masset coming back makes the 40 man issue a little tougher. Yet even with those being fairly minor concerns, the team still may not want to use up some of his super 2 time or expose a player to waivers simply for a 1 month pinch runner.

jback76
08-20-2012, 09:41 AM
I agree with scott, I don't believe he's ready to help the Reds in the playoffs with his glove or bat. Do you take up a playoff roster spot with a pinch runner? I would love to see him up in September though. But I don't think we see him till next year sometime.

IamRV
08-20-2012, 02:05 PM
He's not on the 40 man - ain't happenin'.

Biff Pocoroba
08-20-2012, 02:13 PM
the advantage is obvious - in that he gets to experience a taste of the majors and we get a guy who could be used as a pinch-runner.

But can someone really explain the negative? What would it likely cost us in terms of opening a spot on the 40-man roster? And how much of an impact does one month have in terms of MLB service and what that means for arbitration and free agency way down the road?

Larkin88
08-20-2012, 03:27 PM
Do you want him on the playoff roster?

Then just bringing him up in September doesn't make sense, as he needs to be on the 25-man roster before September to qualify. You would need to add him to the 25-man roster by August 31st if you wanted to go in this direction. While I know fan opinion on the bench is split, knowing what we know about this organization, who do you really think they would get rid of at this point to make that happen?

Keep in mind, we're going to have one Joey Votto coming back and needing a spot soon as well. I'd argue that Xavier Paul as a lefty has given the team a much harder decision to make on who will go down than Costanzo or Negron ever did earlier in the year.

Also, if I'm not mistaken (and let me know if I am), you start his arbitration clock which likely will impact the team going forward. Assuming he truly is the dynamic talent in development that he has been pegged as, you'd be trading arbitration time for about a month of baseball where he will be relegated to about the most limited role there is.

If the Reds choose to extend him beyond his arbitration years, that's one less arbitration year to buy out, meaning one more year that you are paying the free agent premium. Depending on how quickly he takes once he gets here, that could literally mean millions of dollars for the club.


Do you just want him to help win games in September/get a taste of the Majors?

Then call him up, but understand that his at-bats are taking away from guys who are probably going to be on the playoff roster. Granted, that would happen selectively, but it's still a consideration. And keep in mind that you'd pretty much be reserving a roster spot just for a guy who can pinch run.

Especially at the MLB level, Hamilton has no natural defensive position yet to be starting asset. Not saying that is good or bad necessarily if you think the rest of the roster is set. But having watched his development very closely, he is not ready to be a starter in this league. (And boy do I hope he transitions to the outfield soon to fix that)

You would also need to add him to the 40-man for that to happen. Wouldn't be hard to do as there's a lot of dead weight on the 40, but assuming he doesn't stick at the MLB level to start the year next season, you need to burn an option you otherwise wouldn't in 2013 to start him in the minors.

Ultimately, I don't think that's a huge deal because I doubt it will take three years of options for Billy to be ready for the show as this point. But you're sort of stuck if he does (like if he struggles adjusting to OF or something).


Do you just want to sell tickets down the stretch?

Then disregard the rest of the implications, call him up, and start printing your money.

Net net, my position is that I have my reservations about him on the playoff roster because I don't think he fills a complete enough role to be valuable. There aren't a ton of negatives if the Reds do decide to promote him in September just for a cup of coffee, but ultimately think it'd be much ado about nothing and wouldn't gamble what small, marginal risks there are.

My position might be different if the Reds were in a tooth and nail playoff battle with .5 game margins to close the year. In those instances, being able to sneak one more run across in a game in September is crucial. Knocking on a big old piece of wood, though... if the Reds keep playing at close to the pace they've been on, I'm not sure that marginal speed becomes quite so helpful.

I know runs are at a premium in the postseason, but I'm not convinced that pinch running margin alone is reason enough to keep him on a playoff roster.

Jefferson24
08-20-2012, 04:14 PM
There is a case not to start his clock too early and that case is he will need time to learn a new position. I believe the Reds would be better served with him as a center fielder if he is capable of making that transition. It will take time to figure out if center field is doable. I like Cozart where he is and don't want to pick between them.

I would rather pick between Stubbs and Hamilton. Let Hamilton spend next year at AAA in center and lets see what we got. It also gives Stubbs another year to learn how to not strike out as much. Whichever one of them finds success, that's who they should go with.

Larkin88
08-20-2012, 04:53 PM
There is a case not to start his clock too early and that case is he will need time to learn a new position. I believe the Reds would be better served with him as a center fielder if he is capable of making that transition. It will take time to figure out if center field is doable. I like Cozart where he is and don't want to pick between them.

I would rather pick between Stubbs and Hamilton. Let Hamilton spend next year at AAA in center and lets see what we got. It also gives Stubbs another year to learn how to not strike out as much. Whichever one of them finds success, that's who they should go with.

I'll add to your first point. I too, love Cozart. But even if I didn't, I've watched Billy play enough SS in the minors to know that he isn't much of a shortstop. I'd be calling Didi if I needed someone at short sooner than I would Billy.

I've heard that some question his arm strength even in center, but think like you do that he is ultimately destined for one of the outfield positions (center of left) when he comes to stay.

I understand and credit the Reds organization for not trying to force that move mid-season this year, especially after all the growth he's shown at the plate. Want him to find his legs defensively before we start reserving roster spots for him on a playoff roster.

malcontent
08-28-2012, 03:05 PM
Joel Luckhaupt, statistician for Reds telecasts on Fox Sports Ohio, said on-base percentage is key for Hamilton. Hamilton’s 2012 on-base of .418 projects well to the next levels.

“The good sign for him is that his minor league walk rate is 10 percent, which is solid,” Luckhaupt said. “Even better is that his walk rate this year is nearly 14 percent. Couple that with an 18 percent and dropping strikeout rate, and you’ve got the makings of a guy that knows his job is to get on base however he can.”

In other words, he won't remind anyone of Drew Stubbs.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120827/SPT04/308270051/Billy-Hamilton-fast-track-majors?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|

smixsell
08-28-2012, 03:21 PM
:) Bring him up on August 31st. If Rolen can't go or any other player gets injured, you have just made Hamilton post-season eligible.

Spot on.

PS If he is able to steal with a high success rate at the ML level, he would be a VERY valuable post season asset as a pinch runner/designated late inning base-stealer.

smixsell
08-28-2012, 03:26 PM
I agree with scott, I don't believe he's ready to help the Reds in the playoffs with his glove or bat. Do you take up a playoff roster spot with a pinch runner? I would love to see him up in September though. But I don't think we see him till next year sometime.

I do.

A late inning stolen base is often the difference between winning a series and losing a series (Just ask the "Jinx breaking" Red Sox World Series Champion team). I also think he might be able to help us with bat and/or glove in the post season. A decent slap hitter with blazing speed can be a nightmare in short series. The question is, is Billy a "decent" slap hitter yet. We may well find out in September that he is. :)

Krawhitham
08-28-2012, 03:32 PM
Do you want him on the playoff roster?

Then just bringing him up in September doesn't make sense, as he needs to be on the 25-man roster before September to qualify. You would need to add him to the 25-man roster by August 31st if you wanted to go in this direction. While I know fan opinion on the bench is split, knowing what we know about this organization, who do you really think they would get rid of at this point to make that happen?.


They Reds have 3 Roster spots anybody can use to be on the playoff roster
Ryan Madson, Nick Masset, & Bill Bray. They do not need to be on the 25 man roster before Sept 1st

Krawhitham
08-28-2012, 03:34 PM
Do you take up a playoff roster spot with a pinch runner?


Yes, more so that during the regular season. Most playoff games are close, if you can steal a run late in each game it would mean a lot

Remember Billy Bates?

BungleBengals
08-28-2012, 03:40 PM
I think Hamilton should be on the playoff roster as well. He adds so much more than Cairo does. Cairo is expendable at this point, he can only play first and third and after the Phillies game I think playing anywhere in the field is a waste. His batting is practically done too so using him as a DH in out (for WS).

I just think Billy Hamilton adds an extra weapon that this team needs to be that much more dangerous in the post season. Heck, just putting him in as a pinch runner is more than Cairo can do for the team. Hamilton just being on first will get into the heads of the opposing team and pitcher, thus making them lose focus. Hamilton's presense would be huge for this team in the playoffs, not to mention you are getting experience for him for the future as well.

Just drop someone to get Hamilton on the 40 man and then say Cairo is hurt so you can take Billy to the playoffs with you. Cairo will still get his ring too so thats good for everyone. :)

The Rage
08-28-2012, 09:41 PM
I bet Hamilton and Phillips could put on a show in the middle of the field.....even when they are just out there waiting.

Tuff Nut
08-28-2012, 10:23 PM
As to the 40 man..Costanzo was waived, so wouldn't that take him off the 40 man?(I know he was claimed back, and reassigned, but that shouldn't be an issue).
So is there not an opening?

ol'Sparky
08-28-2012, 10:31 PM
thanks reds fan .. i like where this thread has gone .. i read here a ton and post here and there .. i wish i had access to the big boy board .. i can only read ..

i think billy could be a huge asset to the team down the road this year and give some other fellas a rest ..

go reds ..:thumbup: