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View Full Version : Beltran vs. Ludwick



redssince75
08-17-2012, 11:03 PM
Who has turned out to be the better pick up? Through the first 3 months of the season no doubt it was Beltran. He was probably the MVP of the first 2 months alone.

But counting July and August....man I don't know. Ludwick has been the man while Beltran has really cooled.

I'd say whoever has the better September comes out on top.

kaldaniels
08-17-2012, 11:11 PM
If I'm Ludwick, I'm pointing to Beltran's contract after the season is over.

Don't get me wrong, Beltran has the more impressive resume, but if I'm Ludwick, that is the starting point to begin negotiations.

nate
08-17-2012, 11:21 PM
Beltran
PA: 467
wOBA: .368

Ludwick
PA: 348
wOBA: .375

So far, I think Beltran has contributed more: over 100 more PAs with pretty much the same wOBA.

However, cost per win probably gives Ludwick the advantage.

The question is, who will do what going forward.

Brutus
08-17-2012, 11:31 PM
Beltran
PA: 467
wOBA: .368

Ludwick
PA: 348
wOBA: .375

So far, I think Beltran has contributed more: over 100 more PAs with pretty much the same wOBA.

However, cost per win probably gives Ludwick the advantage.

The question is, who will do what going forward.

Good post, Nate.

I would say that if money were no object, Beltran is the better pickup. But in a situation the Reds are in, there's no question whatsoever Ludwick is the better fit. To put up the same production level for a fifth of the cost is the kind of thing that puts a club like Cincinnati in position to compete with higher payrolls.

RedlegJake
08-18-2012, 02:55 AM
I'd say Ludwick clearly. He's much more cost effective for essentially the same production. I can't fault him for having 100 fewer PAs as that was due to platooning early on. Given a fulltime job from the start he may have hit better much sooner (conjecture - I know) and have better overall numbers.

wlf WV
08-18-2012, 09:54 AM
I'm just glad we're having this conversation.I do hope the Reds don't go overboard on a contract extension with Beltran's contact as a mirror.

traderumor
08-18-2012, 10:02 AM
I'm just glad we're having this conversation.I do hope the Reds don't go overboard on a contract extension with Beltran's contact as a mirror.
I don't think that's likely. Ludwick doesn't have the pedigree of Beltran. I think the Reds FO understands the distinction. The conversation is interesting though considering my montra when Ludwick came to the plate in April and May was "do something, quit being the most boring player on the team."

RedsManRick
08-18-2012, 11:08 AM
Good post, Nate.

I would say that if money were no object, Beltran is the better pickup. But in a situation the Reds are in, there's no question whatsoever Ludwick is the better fit. To put up the same production level for a fifth of the cost is the kind of thing that puts a club like Cincinnati in position to compete with higher payrolls.

Agreed. We didn't have $13MM to spend on Beltran. As it stands, Ludwick has given us great bang for the buck.

757690
08-18-2012, 04:16 PM
I'm thinking that $5M option is a no brainer at this point.

Raisor
08-18-2012, 04:28 PM
I'm thinking that $5M option is a no brainer at this point.

It's a mutual option.

Ludwick will want more.

WildcatFan
08-18-2012, 04:54 PM
It's a mutual option.

Ludwick will want more.

I'm not so sure he'll ask for more from Cincinnati. He's made several comments this year about how appreciative he's been to the Reds for taking a chance on him. I could see him taking the 5 mil in order to be the starting left fielder on a team built to win big again in 2013. Maybe he'll ask them for a year extension if he agrees to the option. Call it a hunch.

mth123
08-18-2012, 05:12 PM
I'm not so sure he'll ask for more from Cincinnati. He's made several comments this year about how appreciative he's been to the Reds for taking a chance on him. I could see him taking the 5 mil in order to be the starting left fielder on a team built to win big again in 2013. Maybe he'll ask them for a year extension if he agrees to the option. Call it a hunch.

I think this is possible.

dfs
08-18-2012, 05:17 PM
Ludwick will want more.

5 million is a pretty decent payday. It wouldn't be Ludwick's biggest seasonal contract, but it would be pretty close.

If he comes back, he gets to hit half his games at GAB again and play with what has been a pretty good set of teammates.

I'll say it....if he comes back he gets to play for Dusty Baker and there will be enough talent that he won't be overexposed. If he starts to slip, Dusty will give him some time off and spot him where he can succeed.

I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, but I don't know if I would want to squeeze another 2 million out of the free agent market and then get stuck hitting in a cavernous ballpark or playing for the lAstros.

....

Looking at Ludwick's line at baseballreference is interesting. We all know about the big season he put up for the Cardinals forever ago, but what in the heck happened to him before that? He got to the majors as a 23 year old and then it was another 6 years before he got a clear shot at being a major league regular. He yo-yoed between the major league bench and AAA and didn't get 600 at bats in the majors in all that time. Was released as a 27 year old and spent his whole age 27 season in the minors and then got released again! ....

Cautionary tale about options and such.

It would not shock me if Ludwick decides that he's found a home with Bob and Dusty and GAB and picks up that option.

Vottomatic
08-18-2012, 05:28 PM
Ludwick, Frazier, Chapman, the recent Latos, Cueto, Arroyo (been good this year) are the team MVP's this season.

Before the season, I wasn't expecting much out of Ludwick or Frazier. I did expect more from Latos. After a rough start, he has been what I thought he would be. Arroyo is back to keeping us in games with the occasional blip. Cueto has repeated last season beautifully.

Razor Shines
08-18-2012, 05:30 PM
5 million is a pretty decent payday. It wouldn't be Ludwick's biggest seasonal contract, but it would be pretty close.

If he comes back, he gets to hit half his games at GAB again and play with what has been a pretty good set of teammates.

I'll say it....if he comes back he gets to play for Dusty Baker and there will be enough talent that he won't be overexposed. If he starts to slip, Dusty will give him some time off and spot him where he can succeed.

I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, but I don't know if I would want to squeeze another 2 million out of the free agent market and then get stuck hitting in a cavernous ballpark or playing for the lAstros.

....

Looking at Ludwick's line at baseballreference is interesting. We all know about the big season he put up for the Cardinals forever ago, but what in the heck happened to him before that? He got to the majors as a 23 year old and then it was another 6 years before he got a clear shot at being a major league regular. He yo-yoed between the major league bench and AAA and didn't get 600 at bats in the majors in all that time. Was released as a 27 year old and spent his whole age 27 season in the minors and then got released again! ....

Cautionary tale about options and such.

It would not shock me if Ludwick decides that he's found a home with Bob and Dusty and GAB and picks up that option.

I could be wrong but I think you're underestimating the ego required to be a MLBer. Playing for Dusty may bring him back but there is no way I can believe he's thinking about that other stuff. Being overexposed? Put in spots where he can succeed? You're absolutely right but I doubt very much that Ludwick knows it. He may never express it outwardly but I'd bet a ton of money he thinks he's turned it around and is a full time player and an all star.

Raisor
08-18-2012, 05:35 PM
I would guess he would want to stay a Red, I'm just doubting he'll want to stay a Red for the amount of the option.

dfs
08-18-2012, 06:24 PM
I could be wrong but I think you're underestimating the ego required to be a MLBer. Playing for Dusty may bring him back but there is no way I can believe he's thinking about that other stuff. Being overexposed? Put in spots where he can succeed? You're absolutely right but I doubt very much that Ludwick knows it. He may never express it outwardly but I'd bet a ton of money he thinks he's turned it around and is a full time player and an all star.

I hear what you're saying, but his career line isn't exactly one of prosperity.
Texas traded him in order to give Shance Spencer playing time.
The 06 Tigers found playing time for the husk of Sean Casey but kept Ludwick in the minors.
Even after his good year with the Cardinals they traded him to put John Jay in the field.
The Padres....The Pirates? Ouch.
It might be nice to be wanted someplace.
And 5 Million in the hand for a first place team keeps you smiling on your way to the bank!

klw
08-18-2012, 08:44 PM
If the Reds had signed Beltran it would not have made much sense to mistype his name as Ludwig. Therefore, Ludwick was the better sign.

Wonderful Monds
08-19-2012, 02:00 AM
Ryan Ludwick is the best Reds OF since.....?

Tom Servo
08-19-2012, 02:16 AM
Ryan Ludwick is the best Reds OF since.....?
I'd say his current production is comparable to 1996 Eric Davis or 1999 Greg Vaughn.

powersackers
08-19-2012, 03:46 AM
Johnny Gomes mid summer 2010 streak.

mth123
08-19-2012, 07:11 AM
Ryan Ludwick is the best Reds OF since.....?

Jay Bruce