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Kc61
08-18-2012, 07:39 PM
This post is mid-way between two doubleheader games v. Cubs. Will add stats tomorrow, but to keep on the every 10 game track, am posting some things now.

Reds go 7-3 now 73-47, +81 run differential with 520 RS, 439 RA. Reds with big home field advantage now, 40-21 at home, best home record in baseball. Reds 33-26 on road. Reds 6.5 games up over the Pirates and 8.5 games over the Cardinals. Reds gained three on the second place Bucs during this stretch. Mes returns from DL, Navarro down. Redmond being called up for second game of DH tonight under special double header rule Votto still out, return not imminent due to second procedure.

Offense - Reds now with a .747 OPS, fourth best in the NL. It was .737 last time so the Reds with major offensive splurge in last ten games. BA is .254, OBP is .319, SLG is .429. All of these are improvements from last time especially SLG which went from .421 to .429. Reds now tied for first place in HRs with Brewers at 142. Reds had 125 last time so hit 17 homers in the last ten games.

Reds are 7th in runs scored, ninth in base hits, but now lead the NL in extra base hits with 400.

Ludwick, Frazier and XPaul (limited at bats) all now with slightly above .900 OPS. Bruce at .846. In last 30 days, Ludwick with 1.136 OPS in 9 at bats. Rolen 1.118 over that time frame. Frazier had slumped but in last 7 days hitting .455 with 1.273 OPS. Bruce with four homers and 1.579 OPS in last seven days.

Reds not a big OBP team, but Paul with .400 OBP in limited play, Frazier up to .345 overall, Ludwick .338, Bruce .330, Phillips .330. Frazier up to .290 BA overall in 300 official at bats. Phillips despite recent slump, still at .288 BA, Hanigan .279, Ludwick .270.

Pitching - Reds with ERA of 3.36 as a team, second best in NL. Slight improvement from 3.38 last time. Starters at 3.65, fifth best in league, improved from 3.77 last time. Relievers at 2.64, lead league, were 2.49 last time so a drop back there. Bullpen has a won-lost record of 23-16, starters50-31.

Reds bullpen has allowed fewest home runs in the NL, kind of an amazing stat given that they play in GABP. 24 homers altogether. Starters have allowed 89 homers fourth most in NL. Starters WHIP is 1.25, fifth best in NL. Bullpen WHIP is 1.23, second best in NL.

Chapman now at 1.37 ERA with 29 saves in 33 tries with league hitting .132 against him BA. WHIP 0.71. In terms of ERA, highest in Reds pen is 3.12, Ondrusek, not counting Bray and Broxton who have higher ERAs but very few innings as Reds.

Chapman leads relievers with 59 innings pitched, no other reliever is above 48 (Arredondo). Four Reds relievers with fifty plus outings, Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, and Ondrusek, the highest is Aroldis with 55. These are not among league highest usage numbers, with Roenicke of Rockies at 72.2 innings, Camp of Cubs with 59 outings, and many other relievers with more outings and innings than Reds main guys.

Cueto now with 16-6 record, Cy Young candidate, 2.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Highest ERA among starters is 4.29, Leake. I remember years ago when 4.29 would be team best. Cueto and Latos lead starters in Ks with 135 and 134 respectively. Latos and Bailey with 10 wins, Arroyo with 9, Leake with 5.

Fielding - Reds with 66 errors, Braves only team better in NL with 61. Reds had 59 last time, so they made a bunch this time around. Reds DER (MLB.com) is 7th in the NL at .698. Reds still near bottom in DPs with 80. Stolen base percentage against Reds is .670, fourth best percentage in NL.

Will add some more stats tomorrow, after all the sites are in with today's results.

WildcatFan
08-18-2012, 08:53 PM
You did it! I was all ready for that 11-game capsule.

Kc61
08-18-2012, 10:49 PM
You did it! I was all ready for that 11-game capsule.

LOL, didn't want to mess up the pattern. Thankfully, MLB.com had a very prompt update of the stats after the Reds' afternoon game. Will work in the Fangraphs stuff tomorrow.

Kc61
08-19-2012, 10:28 AM
A few more stats after 121 games, Reds 6.5 ahead of Pirates, 7.5 ahead of Cards. Reds lost high scoring game in 121st outing. ESPN has Reds at 96.6% chance of making playoffs, only Nats and Yankees higher in MLB.

Offense - Reds with 405 extra base hits to lead NL, but with 632 singles, fewest in NL. Giants with 777 singles (320 extra base hits) and Cards with 761 singles (376 extra base hits) to lead league in singles. Overall result is that Cards have 583 runs, Reds 527, Giants 519.

Reds wOBA now .322, fifth in NL, was .317 after 110 games, big jump for this time of year. Reds wRC+ now 98, fourth in NL, was 96, so offense continues to get stronger overall. Reds ISO power now .175 tops in NL. Reds now league leader in ISO, extra base hits, tied for lead in homers, so at top of NL in power numbers while lagging in OBP and singles.

For players over 200 PAs, Votto remains first in NL wOBA at .444. Ludwick now 14th in wOBA for NL at .386, Frazier 21st .375, again for over 200 PA group. NL league average wOBA is .313 according to Fangraphs, Reds with over 200 PAs below that are Hanigan .310, Stubbs .309, Heisey .308, Cozart .306. Mes well below but has fewer PAs as do some of the other bench guys.

Pitching - Reds FIP is 3.75, same as last time, fourth in NL. xFIP is 3.82, fifth in NL, a big higher than last time. Reds WAR on the pitching side is 15.7 second best in NL. Reds with 41 saves, just behind Bucs with 42 and tied with Nats. Cards with 28 saves. Reds team pitching BABIP (batting average against on balls in play) is .291, NL BABIP as a whole is .294, so Reds pitchers doing a tad better. Nats pitching BABIP against is .277, Pirates .280, Cards .294.

In NL, Cueto with best WAR of any pitcher at 4.3. Kershaw, 4.2, Gonzalez 4.1, Strasburg 4.0, Dickey 3.9. On Reds, low WAR numbers are Arredondo, Broxton, and Hoover (now at AAA) at 0.1, Ondrusek at -0.5. Bray and Redmond lower with few outings.

Reds starters FIP are Cueto 3.04, Leake 4.04, Latos 4.12, Arroyo 4.23, Bailey 4.42. xFIP Cueto 3.63, Leake 3.71, Latos 3.85, Arroyo and Bailey both 4.29.

Fielding - Reds with -5 UZR rating, tenth in the NL. Braves at +37.9, Pirates +17.3, Cards -15.6. Using UZR/150, Reds are ninth at -1. Braves still lead at 9.5, Pirates at .2 just ahead of Reds, Cards -3.8. Somebody can explain how Pirates go from near top in UZR to 8th place in UZR/150.

Reds UZR held down by three outfielders. Stubbs -2.6, Ludwick -3.7, Bruce -4.3. Phillips at +4.4, Votto 4.0, Cozart 3.9 lead Reds. Using UZR/150, Ludwick is lower than Bruce, -8.3 for Ludwick, -5.8 for Bruce.

Cooper
08-19-2012, 01:10 PM
I am going to show my ignorance (not hard for me to do), is UZR/150 have a park context to it? I would be interested in knowing the visiting teams UZR/150.

Cooper
08-19-2012, 01:17 PM
and my solid english strucks again.

Kc61
08-19-2012, 01:54 PM
I don't know much about UZR/150 so I'll let someone else answer. However, I would note that the current issue of Baseball America has the "best tools" section which asks every major league manager to break down the best big leaguers by category.

In the NL, best defensive outfielder, Drew Stubbs finished third in that poll, behind Bourn and McCutchen. In the best outfield arm, Jay Bruce finished third behind Cargo and Rick Ankiel.

Stubbs and Bruce have negative UZR ratings. While Bruce hasn't had a great year defensively, it's hard for me to see Stubbs with such a poor UZR rating. His RZR rating and OOZ ratings appear better than average for NL center fielders. RZR is revised zone rating, OOZ is out of zone rating.

I'm not an expert in these defensive stats and I report them as relevant, but just considering the Reds outfield they seem kind of debatable.

Cooper
08-19-2012, 02:12 PM
Stubbs is hard to judge with the eyes cause he does everything with easy effort. I just wonder if he played in bigger park -would that translate to something different.