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19braves77
08-19-2012, 02:17 PM
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2012/08/usa-today-minor-league-player-of-year-vote/1#.UDEn-qOe3uw

Nuff Said.

powersackers
08-19-2012, 08:04 PM
Just voted. Will Myers of KC is up by 175 votes or so.

dougdirt
08-19-2012, 08:43 PM
Hamilton probably shouldn't be close to some of those guys. Hamilton is having a good season with a ton of steals. Those guys are all having incredible seasons.

powersackers
08-19-2012, 09:10 PM
Hamilton probably shouldn't be close to some of those guys. Hamilton is having a good season with a ton of steals. Those guys are all having incredible seasons.

They aren't setting history old records! Players have outstanding seasons every year - all those guys included but they won't be talked about years from now. Billy's season will be. Let's reward it, plus he's one of our own!

dougdirt
08-19-2012, 11:04 PM
They aren't setting history old records! Players have outstanding seasons every year - all those guys included but they won't be talked about years from now. Billy's season will be. Let's reward it, plus he's one of our own!

Doesn't matter, the award should be for the best player. The other guys on that list are having incredible all around years. Hamilton is having a good year with an incredible number of steals.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 11:10 PM
Doesn't matter, the award should be for the best player. The other guys on that list are having incredible all around years. Hamilton is having a good year with an incredible number of steals.

Ordinarily, I would agree with you in principle, but when you're about to break a 30-year old single-season record such as this, you probably deserve extra special consideration.

I'd vote Wil Myers under normal circumstances, but these aren't normal circumstances and Hamilton is about to break a pretty incredible record.

dougdirt
08-19-2012, 11:15 PM
Ordinarily, I would agree with you in principle, but when you're about to break a 30-year old single-season record such as this, you probably deserve extra special consideration.

I'd vote Wil Myers under normal circumstances, but these aren't normal circumstances and Hamilton is about to break a pretty incredible record.

So if in a few years Hamilton hits .280/.340/.390 and breaks the stolen base record in the Majors you would vote for him as an MVP over a guy who hits .320/.381/.571 as a center fielder (Oscar Taveras this year for example)? I just can't buy into that being more valuable than what a guy like Taveras is doing.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 11:29 PM
So if in a few years Hamilton hits .280/.340/.390 and breaks the stolen base record in the Majors you would vote for him as an MVP over a guy who hits .320/.381/.571 as a center fielder (Oscar Taveras this year for example)? I just can't buy into that being more valuable than what a guy like Taveras is doing.

There are a ton of hypotheticals in that question, but I'd point out that this is a different situation because the players Hamilton is being pinned against are either in another league or on another level altogether. So it's not as easy a direct comparison as an MVP award in the Majors where they're in the league and on the same level, competing against one another.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 11:30 PM
On an unrelated note, perhaps some foreshadowing: the MLB record for most steals in a game is seven. One of the players that is tied for the record: a guy named Billy Hamilton.

Perhaps history will repeat itself :)

powersackers
08-19-2012, 11:46 PM
Remember this is ML POTY not ML MVP. The difference is hard to explain but normal MVPs will still be named in leagues. Achievement over value is how I would explain the difference.

VottoFan54
08-20-2012, 12:27 AM
So if in a few years Hamilton hits .280/.340/.390 and breaks the stolen base record in the Majors you would vote for him as an MVP over a guy who hits .320/.381/.571 as a center fielder (Oscar Taveras this year for example)? I just can't buy into that being more valuable than what a guy like Taveras is doing.

Reminds me of the 1962 NL MVP vote: http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1962.shtml#NLmvp

Mays should've won it, but Wills got it because of his 104 stolen bases.

camisadelgolf
08-20-2012, 12:51 AM
I'm just voting for him for the publicity. Other guys deserve it more, but I wouldn't mind seeing Hamilton's value driven up.

19braves77
08-20-2012, 02:25 AM
I'm just voting for him for the publicity. Other guys deserve it more, but I wouldn't mind seeing Hamilton's value driven up.

Nothing wrong with over hyping your own prospects. The Braves do it very well with their pitching prospects.

scott91575
08-20-2012, 06:55 AM
So if in a few years Hamilton hits .280/.340/.390 and breaks the stolen base record in the Majors you would vote for him as an MVP over a guy who hits .320/.381/.571 as a center fielder (Oscar Taveras this year for example)? I just can't buy into that being more valuable than what a guy like Taveras is doing.

What if you had to choose between these slash lines?

.292/.349/.731

vs.

.317/.378/.594

That is what 143 stolen bases can do to a slash line if you figure in the fact 143 extra bases are added to a guys slugging percentage and caught stealing is taken from average/OBP (I did equal number walks and singles). Now, it won't be quite to that number since there are probably a couple doubles in there and a caught stealing at third. That would erase a double instead of a single or a walk like I did. Yet the numbers would still be rather similar. Maybe down to .292/.353/.700 at worst.

edit: BTW, your Hamilton numbers were short changing him to start with. Were those his AA only numbers at that point? He just went 5 for 7 in his last 2 ballgames. You can't just use his AA numbers anyway. Too small of a sample size.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 07:13 AM
What if you had to choose between these slash lines?

.292/.349/.731

vs.

.317/.378/.594

That is what 143 stolen bases can do to a slash line if you figure in the fact 143 extra bases are added to a guys slugging percentage and caught stealing is taken from average/OBP (I did equal number walks and singles). Now, it won't be quite to that number since there are probably a couple doubles in there and a caught stealing at third. That would erase a double instead of a single or a walk like I did. Yet the numbers would still be rather similar. Maybe down to .292/.353/.700 at worst.

edit: BTW, your Hamilton numbers were short changing him to start with. Were those his AA only numbers at that point? He just went 5 for 7 in his last 2 ballgames. You can't just use his AA numbers anyway. Too small of a sample size.

Problem is 1 steal does not equal 1 total base, so you can't just add it to the slugging and pretend the two things are equal, because they aren't. Steals don't advance other runners. Hits do.

Either way, Oscar Taveras has had a much stronger season than Billy Hamilton has. Again, Billy Hamilton has had a good season and a bunch of steals. The other guys on the list have had incredible seasons all around.

scott91575
08-20-2012, 07:18 AM
Problem is 1 steal does not equal 1 total base, so you can't just add it to the slugging and pretend the two things are equal, because they aren't. Steals don't advance other runners. Hits do.

Either way, Oscar Taveras has had a much stronger season than Billy Hamilton has. Again, Billy Hamilton has had a good season and a bunch of steals. The other guys on the list have had incredible seasons all around.

He is a lead off hitter with an open base in front of him in order to steal a base. Which means it is really close to adding that extra base for him. Only the times he hit a single with a man on first or second that went to third or got a walk with a man on third does that matter. Plus, with that, I reduced his BA due to caught stealing. Taking that into account I should up Hamilton's BA for moving players.

Face it, even if you eliminated 100 points to his slugging he is right up there with him (plus you would need to add to his BA in my post). It's not as much of a difference as you make it out to be.

Sorry, but you can't just take 143 stolen bases and say it's a bunch of steals. It will be an all time record number of steals when all is said and done. There is a big freaking difference.

Jamz
08-20-2012, 08:41 AM
Hitting a single and then stealing second base is, for the most part, as good as hitting a double in the same position. Obviously 2nd base is already open, and only in the extreme case where a double will score a runner from first is it going to be a big difference (most singles out of the infield score the runner from 2nd unless they're real slow.) Regardless he's moving himself into scoring position, too. Yes, a double overall is better but there is a lot of value in steals, too...especially if you are talking about advancing runners (because he's advancing himself as a runner without needing a hit to do so.)

When he's stealing 2nd and then 3rd it's just as good as hitting a triple in the same situation given that nobody would be there anyway and he's setting himself to be scored on anything that gets deeper than 15 feet past 2nd base.

I really feel like Doug just doesn't value speed as much as some other people do. That's fine. He's spent a lot of time talking about how much better other prospects are than Hamilton.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 09:32 AM
Hamilton comes up with the bases empty one time a game for sure. Most leadoff guys come up with runners on base about half of the time they step to the plate.

And Jamz, the Reds only have one guy who might be a better prospect than Hamilton is and that is Stephenson. And this is the first time I have said that. I have also said that Hamilton has MVP caliber potential, so let's please not try to suggest I think Hamilton isn't good or can't be. I am just saying that there are prospects out there who are better than he is and ones that are having far better seasons than he is.

And stealing 2nd and 3rd with no one on still isn't quite like hitting a double or a triple. If you are on 2nd base and the next batter hits a fly ball to left field, you aren't scoring. But if he steals third on the next pitch he is still on third and you are equating that to a triple. But a triple would have plated a run in that exact same scenario.

But you are probably right, I don't value speed as much as others do on this board.

End of the day a center fielder hitting .320/.380/.520 is more impressive to me, by quite a lot than a shortstop hitting .320/.420/.430 with 200 steals.

Brutus
08-20-2012, 09:42 AM
Hamilton comes up with the bases empty one time a game for sure. Most leadoff guys come up with runners on base about half of the time they step to the plate.

And Jamz, the Reds only have one guy who might be a better prospect than Hamilton is and that is Stephenson. And this is the first time I have said that. I have also said that Hamilton has MVP caliber potential, so let's please not try to suggest I think Hamilton isn't good or can't be. I am just saying that there are prospects out there who are better than he is and ones that are having far better seasons than he is.

And stealing 2nd and 3rd with no one on still isn't quite like hitting a double or a triple. If you are on 2nd base and the next batter hits a fly ball to left field, you aren't scoring. But if he steals third on the next pitch he is still on third and you are equating that to a triple. But a triple would have plated a run in that exact same scenario.

But you are probably right, I don't value speed as much as others do on this board.

End of the day a center fielder hitting .320/.380/.520 is more impressive to me, by quite a lot than a shortstop hitting .320/.420/.430 with 200 steals.

You spent time mentioning that one steal isn't equal to one single. Well that's true but you're forgetting that having the threat of a guy like Hamilton is likely to be a huge indirect impact on the hitters behind him because any pitcher will tell you it's tough to concentrate on a hitter with someone on base that can steal a base. And if ever there were a guy that can steal a base, Hamilton is it.

So Hamilton's steals may not be a 1:1 addition of total bases, but they do count and he would have a huge impact on the guys behind him. If pitchers had to pitch to Joey Votto with Hamilton in front of him, it's not at all unreasonable to expect him to wind up with a ton more pitches to hit because pitchers weren't able to concentrate nearly as well.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 09:57 AM
You also forgot to mention that some hitters don't do well with a runner trying to steal because they have to take pitches that wouldn't otherwise and fall behind in the count.

There is a whole lot of things that go into something with a player like Hamilton. Things that normally don't apply to most players.

Jamz
08-20-2012, 11:11 AM
And Jamz, the Reds only have one guy who might be a better prospect than Hamilton is and that is Stephenson. And this is the first time I have said that. I have also said that Hamilton has MVP caliber potential, so let's please not try to suggest I think Hamilton isn't good or can't be. I am just saying that there are prospects out there who are better than he is and ones that are having far better seasons than he is.

Right, I didn't say that. However, people seem to always be surprised when you aren't touting Hamilton the way that everyone else does. I only pointed out that you don't seem to value speed the way that a lot of others do, and that you've said before that you think a lot of prospects are better (or have been better) than Hamilton. I wasn't putting words in your mouth or anything.


And stealing 2nd and 3rd with no one on still isn't quite like hitting a double or a triple. If you are on 2nd base and the next batter hits a fly ball to left field, you aren't scoring. But if he steals third on the next pitch he is still on third and you are equating that to a triple. But a triple would have plated a run in that exact same scenario.

Right -- I was equating it to a triple only in one situation though. I've said that with people on base or in certain situations obviously just hitting a double or triple is better. However, steals do have value and can't be ignored when considering 'total bases' and such.


But you are probably right, I don't value speed as much as others do on this board.

End of the day a center fielder hitting .320/.380/.520 is more impressive to me, by quite a lot than a shortstop hitting .320/.420/.430 with 200 steals.

I guess that's where we differ. I would take the second line every single day. If you say that the lead-off hitter gets something like 750 PA a year you can grab this from those statlines:

Player 1: .380 OBP = 285 times on base
Player 2: .420 OBP = 315 times on base

If we assume that the 2nd player is also stealing 200 bases to the other player's 0 you're going to probably have way more opportunities to get him home than the previous. The difference in RBIs will not make up for the difference in run potential as well as passed balls, balks, and general discord.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 11:22 AM
Right, I didn't say that. However, people seem to always be surprised when you aren't touting Hamilton the way that everyone else does. I only pointed out that you don't seem to value speed the way that a lot of others do, and that you've said before that you think a lot of prospects are better (or have been better) than Hamilton. I wasn't putting words in your mouth or anything.
I am not the only one "not touting him like everyone else". I might be the only one on this board, but I am not the only one. At this point in time, Hamilton is a top 50 prospect in baseball. That makes an incredibly small amount of prospects that I think are better than him. I do think he is still a moderate risk/high reward guy though.

BungleBengals
08-20-2012, 12:19 PM
I do not care how well the or deserving the other players are in for the achievement. We are Reds fans and we should vote for Reds.

Other guys might be hitting better or might have better averages, but Hamilton is one of the most exciting prospects this year. Most exciting is sometimes what usually gets the award anyways. Look at the NFL last year, you have 3 guys throw over 5,000 yards and Drew Brees breaks Marino's record, but who gets the MVP? Aaron Rodgers does because he is a more exciting player. Same goes with LeBron winning his MVP. Kobe was just as deserving, but LeBron is the more exciting player.

So I am not saying the other players are not deserving and the MVP or POTY achievements are representative of the most deserving, but a combination of somewhat deserving and most exciting. That is Billy Hamilton IMO.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 12:34 PM
I do not care how well the or deserving the other players are in for the achievement. We are Reds fans and we should vote for Reds.

Other guys might be hitting better or might have better averages, but Hamilton is one of the most exciting prospects this year. Most exciting is sometimes what usually gets the award anyways. Look at the NFL last year, you have 3 guys throw over 5,000 yards and Drew Brees breaks Marino's record, but who gets the MVP? Aaron Rodgers does because he is a more exciting player. Same goes with LeBron winning his MVP. Kobe was just as deserving, but LeBron is the more exciting player.

So I am not saying the other players are not deserving and the MVP or POTY achievements are representative of the most deserving, but a combination of somewhat deserving and most exciting. That is Billy Hamilton IMO.

Aaron Rodgers didn't make the most exciting plays and win the MVP because of it. He won the MVP because he was the best player in the league. He had the highest QB rating in the NFL, by far. His team won the most games.

LeBron won the MVP award because he was the best player in the game. He was as good of a scorer as anyone, was a better defender than Kobe or Durant, a better rebounder and a better passer.

Maybe I am nuts, but I am not voting for inferior players in award things simply because they are 'my guy'. I don't do it for the all star games either. The point is to vote for the best, not your favorite.

REDREAD
08-20-2012, 05:11 PM
So if in a few years Hamilton hits .280/.340/.390 and breaks the stolen base record in the Majors you would vote for him as an MVP over a guy who hits .320/.381/.571 as a center fielder (Oscar Taveras this year for example)? I just can't buy into that being more valuable than what a guy like Taveras is doing.

If you are going to use Tavaras' AA numbers as an example of what he can do in the majors, why not do the same for Hamilton?

Hamliton 303/419/424 with over 130 steals. Plays SS.
Based on the Reds' team makeup right now, I don't think it's a no brainer to chose Tavaras, even at the stat line he is putting up. The Reds have plenty of power in the lineup, but could sure use an infusion of a leadoff hitter/OBP guy.

Now naturally, maybe neither prospect puts up those numbers in the majors.
Also, I've never seen Tavaras.. but just wondering why Taveras gets his AA numbers, while Billy gets MLB estimates..

mth123
08-20-2012, 08:27 PM
Here is the fact most likely to get Doug to change his opinon of Hamilton:

I agree with Doug.

If that doesn't get him re-thinking his position, nothing will.

camisadelgolf
08-20-2012, 09:49 PM
Here is the fact most likely to get Doug to change his opinon of Hamilton:

I agree with Doug.

If that doesn't get him re-thinking his position, nothing will.
Hahaha so true.

But I think a lot of people are misinterpreting Doug's motive. People around here are uberexcited about Hamilton, and for some of us, the hype has gotten out of hand. Doug's just trying to set it up so that Hamilton won't disappoint by attempting to offer more realistic expectations for Hamilton's future performance.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 09:51 PM
Hahaha so true.

But I think a lot of people are misinterpreting Doug's motive. People around here are uberexcited about Hamilton, and for some of us, the hype has gotten out of hand. Doug's just trying to set it up so that Hamilton won't disappoint by attempting to offer more realistic expectations for Hamilton's future performance.

Crazy talk. I have a personal grudge to hold against him. Or so I am told by some.

But no, you are on line pretty much with where I am sitting.

MikeS21
08-20-2012, 10:21 PM
I haven't seen Hamilton play a lot, but the few times I have seen him, I am left thinking, "He's not going to get away with that at higher levels."

Hamilton's struggle will always be getting on base. I see his OBP now, and while it is impressive, I have my doubts about his ability to get on base at the major league level. I certainly think talk of promotion to themajor leagues is premature until he has a full season of AA and a full season of AAA under his belt.

Right now I see Hamilton as another novelty carnival act - like Chapman and his 100+ mph fastball. What does he offer when he is no longer able to run?

Brutus
08-20-2012, 10:24 PM
Hahaha so true.

But I think a lot of people are misinterpreting Doug's motive. People around here are uberexcited about Hamilton, and for some of us, the hype has gotten out of hand. Doug's just trying to set it up so that Hamilton won't disappoint by attempting to offer more realistic expectations for Hamilton's future performance.

As if Doug saying so is going to keep people from being disappointed. People are going to have their own expectations. No amount of Doug trying to feel it's his job as Redszone enthusiasm manager is going to change that.

dougdirt
08-20-2012, 10:24 PM
I haven't seen Hamilton play a lot, but the few times I have seen him, I am left thinking, "He's not going to get away with that at higher levels."

Hamilton's struggle will always be getting on base. I see his OBP now, and while it is impressive, I have my doubts about his ability to get on base at the major league level. I certainly think talk of promotion to themajor leagues is premature until he has a full season of AA and a full season of AAA under his belt.

Right now I see Hamilton as another novelty carnival act - like Chapman and his 100+ mph fastball. What does he offer when he is no longer able to run?

I am not opposed to calling Hamilton up this September, to use solely as a pinch runner or a spot start once a week. But he should head back to the minors to start next season.

camisadelgolf
08-20-2012, 10:30 PM
As if Doug saying so is going to keep people from being disappointed. People are going to have their own expectations. No amount of Doug trying to feel it's his job as Redszone enthusiasm manager is going to change that.
Yeah, but it's a constant back-and-forth. Everyone involved is guilty, and it's annoying. It's just noise. I think I got too far off topic, so if I think of anything else to say about it, it'll be in a PM.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 03:32 AM
Hamilton comes up with the bases empty one time a game for sure. Most leadoff guys come up with runners on base about half of the time they step to the plate.


I would just like to point out this is untrue. Perhaps it's close to 1/2 after the first at bat, but overall leadoff guys are going to see men on base closer to 33% of the time. Let's take a guy who has a ton lead off at bats, Rickey Henderson. He batted with men on base 34.6% of the time (I chose him since his sample size would be huge and varied among different teams, plus he batted leadoff for all but 15 games in his career). Mind you he also played almost all of his career in the AL, so no pitcher hitting before him. The two Reds who bat leadoff or number 2 most of the time are Stubbs and Cozart. Stubbs - 34.5%, Cozart - 32.1%. I am sure I could go on and on, yet I in no way wanted to let something that is far from true simply slip by unnoticed.

To further the Rickey Henderson comparison, he had a .267/.398/.382 slash line in 1982 with 130 stolen bases and 42 caught stealing. That is about as close I can get to Hamilton's numbers. His oWAR (BR formula) was 5.5 that year (I use oWAR to eliminate defense for now). Tavares's numbers are in the ballpark of Votto last year, who had a 5.7 oWAR. Now, there are ballpark/position factors in there and it's a cumulative stat, so it's not the best comparison. Taking in those into account it looks better for Taveras, but I would say Votto's numbers>Tavares and Hamiltons>Henderson so it's a wash.

Anyway, talking all that into account, Hamilton's offensive numbers are similar in value to Taveras (I would need more detailed numbers not available from minor league stats to do a more exact comparison). In other words, Hamilton has a very strong case based on minor league batting numbers. This is in no way a clear cut case like you are trying to make it out to be.

edit: oh, and if you believe in wOBA, the two players are almost identical and that doesn't take into account steals. If you believe in Sabermetrics, getting on base is more important than slugging (which wOBA tries to take into account and is pretty much OPS with slugging reduced in value). That makes Hamilton's case a lot better.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 04:14 AM
I am not opposed to calling Hamilton up this September, to use solely as a pinch runner or a spot start once a week. But he should head back to the minors to start next season.

I would say that is completely up to the Reds. I am on the fence about a September call up (I stated my reasons in another thread). Yet I would be dead set against any starts unless the Reds have the division won and home field locked in. He is a defensive liability right now, and could be an offensive one too at the MLB level. I think Hamilton still needs at the very least 1 more full year in the minors, and maybe 2 before he can even be considered for any sort of starting at the MLB level in games that matter.

dougdirt
08-22-2012, 06:50 AM
Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

camisadelgolf
08-22-2012, 07:03 AM
Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.
I know what you're trying to say, but I don't think it's "crazy". They have a lot in common.

dougdirt
08-22-2012, 07:16 AM
I know what you're trying to say, but I don't think it's "crazy". They have a lot in common.

Except for that part where no one projects Hamilton to hit for any home run power at all and Henderson hit 297 career home runs, topping 15 home runs 8 different times. And Henderson struck out at a significantly lower rate in the Majors than Hamilton has in the minors.

camisadelgolf
08-22-2012, 07:19 AM
Except for that part where no one projects Hamilton to hit for any home run power at all and Henderson hit 297 career home runs, topping 15 home runs 8 different times. And Henderson struck out at a significantly lower rate in the Majors than Hamilton has in the minors.
I know.

Jamz
08-22-2012, 07:44 AM
Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

Taveras isn't Joey Votto, either. He was using comparables in the MLB to show the value that each player is contributing right now. Not what they are going to become in the future.

At least that's what I took from it.

REDREAD
08-22-2012, 01:21 PM
Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

And Taveras isn't Votto either.. I think he was just saying "what if their AA numbers held up in the majors".

Billy will never have the power that Rickey had.. I agree with that.
He might come close in OBP and steals though.. Would I bet my house on it? Nope, but that's the upside.

dougdirt
08-22-2012, 02:33 PM
I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.

Brutus
08-22-2012, 05:30 PM
Henderson didn't really exhibit any more power than Hamilton in the minors, although I wonder if the power exhibited in the majors was natural given the team he broke in with (*cough cough* McGwire, Canseco, etc.)

That said, while I don't share Doug's views on Hamilton's being unable to sustain a Henderson-like OBP at some point, it's worth noting that Henderson's strikeout rate in the minors was definitely impressive. He struck out just 12.4% of his plate appearances (16.4% walk rate). Hamilton currently sits at a 10.4% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate, although this year has been much, much better (14.5% and 18.3%, respectively).

I don't see Hamilton ever having Rickey's power, though I still think he can maintain a 12-13% walk rate in the majors. I view Hamilton as being more in the mold of Tim Raines as upside, with a basement career similar to Otis Nixon. Raines finished his career with a 12.9% walk rate despite an ISO of .131. Like Hamilton, he was only about 160 pounds soaking wet.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 05:42 PM
Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

The stats are similar. I used the comparison to put Hamilton's stats into a cumulative stats like oWAR (which I could not do with just Hamilton's stats since I don't have what I need). I in no way said Hamilton is Henderson. Yet find me another big leaguer with stats in the bigs similar to Hamilton's in the minors.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 05:50 PM
I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.

Early in Rickey's career he did not have much power, and guess what, that is one of the years I used. In fact, Hamilton has a higher slugging percentage in the minors than Rickey had the year I used.

The only career stat I used for Rickey was for men on base. That has nothing to do with Hamilton and was used to show you lead off men do not hit 50% of the time with men on base. It's not even close.

dougdirt
08-22-2012, 05:53 PM
The stats are similar. I used the comparison to put Hamilton's stats into a cumulative stats like oWAR (which I could not do with just Hamilton's stats since I don't have what I need). I in no way said Hamilton is Henderson. Yet find me another big leaguer with stats in the bigs similar to Hamilton's in the minors.

Henderson's stats aren't really like Hamilton's in the minors either. So I would have to find you one, not another one.

I don't really care to do it though. Hamilton is a unique player with a unique skillset. I don't believe that his minor league numbers are going to translate 1 to 1, particularly in the walk area. So even if I did find someone with stats that are similar, it wouldn't particularly do much good for a comparison for me.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 05:54 PM
And Taveras isn't Votto either.. I think he was just saying "what if their AA numbers held up in the majors".

Billy will never have the power that Rickey had.. I agree with that.
He might come close in OBP and steals though.. Would I bet my house on it? Nope, but that's the upside.

Exactly. I needed 2 players in the majors that had similar stats that those two have in the minors this year. That way I could look at some cumulative stats in order to compare two very different styles of ballplayers. I needed something that was a somewhat accepted metric that could turn steals into a quantifiable metric in order to compare that to Taveras style stats. That is all I was doing.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 06:00 PM
Henderson's stats aren't really like Hamilton's in the minors either. So I would have to find you one, not another one.

I don't really care to do it though. Hamilton is a unique player with a unique skillset. I don't believe that his minor league numbers are going to translate 1 to 1, particularly in the walk area. So even if I did find someone with stats that are similar, it wouldn't particularly do much good for a comparison for me.

I need to remind you this thread is about voting for minor league player of the year. Your belief in Hamilton's numbers translating to the majors don't matter (of course you assume Taveras's numbers will, but let's just ignore that).

I have been trying to show over and over again why Hamilton's numbers are either similar or in fact superior to Taveras's numbers in the minors. That is all. You started by stating how incredible the other guy's seasons are, and I have shown through countless number of stats how incredible Hamilton's season is in comparison. He is not just a bunch of steals like you wanted to think.

dougdirt
08-22-2012, 06:02 PM
I have never said he is just a bunch of steals. I said he is having a good season with a bunch of steals.

scott91575
08-22-2012, 06:24 PM
I have never said he is just a bunch of steals. I said he is having a good season with a bunch of steals.

I am laughing at this point. OK, you said he is having a good season with a bunch of steals.

The facts are, you belittled Hamilton's stats in comparison to others on the list and I have used accepted cumulative offensive stats to show he does in fact stand up to them and actually above them.

This is more for the people that actually accepted your stance but stated "we are Reds fans let's vote for the Reds." That is not even needed. Hamilton's stats stand up to the others and actually exceed them, plain and simple. His stats should in no way be considered "a good season with a bunch of steals." From a cumulative offensive value perspective, his stats are some of if not the best in the minor leagues this year.

dougdirt
08-22-2012, 06:46 PM
I will take what Oscar Taveras is doing over what Hamilton is doing. Give me power over speed any day of the week. Unfortunately he is a Cardinal and he looks like he is going to be a very, very good one at that.

REDREAD
08-24-2012, 10:50 AM
I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.

Henderson had a batting stance where he really scrunched down. The umps at time gave pitchers pitching to him a very small strike zone.
IMO, that had a bigger impact on Rickey's OBP then his power.
Rickey had nice power (297 HR in 25 seasons), but pitchers did everything they could to keep him off base. They weren't walking Henderson because they were scared of his HR power. Henderson played on several really good teams where he had guys with better power hitting behind him.. In other words, no one would give Stubbs a walk because they fear his power, with Votto hitting behind him.

If Billy becomes a 100 SB threat, teams are not going to want him on base period. The question is whether Billy will hit major league pitching well enough that he's pitched carefully. As I said, many minor league players have nice walk rates on the farm. Then they come to the big leagues, can't hit big league pitching, and the walks evaporate.

If Billy can hit .300 in the majors as his hitting coach suggests, he'll get plenty of walks to go along with it. Billy seems to have good pitch recognition in the minors. That will transfer to the bigs. Now, whether Billy can actually hit .300 remains to be seen..

dougdirt
08-24-2012, 10:53 AM
Billy seems to have good pitch recognition in the minors. That will transfer to the bigs. Now, whether Billy can actually hit .300 remains to be seen..

To me, Billy seems to have a good understanding of the zone, but not really good pitch recognition.

REDREAD
08-24-2012, 03:01 PM
To me, Billy seems to have a good understanding of the zone, but not really good pitch recognition.

Not disagreeing.. can you elaborate on what you are saying though? thanks.

dougdirt
08-24-2012, 03:04 PM
Not disagreeing.. can you elaborate on what you are saying though? thanks.

Hamilton doesn't swing at too many non strikes from what I have seen. But he often is very off balance in his swing as he starts too early and just uses a flailing arm swing to try and do something with an offspeed pitch. That suggests to me that while he can determine the strikezone pretty good, he doesn't differentiate well between pitches.

REDREAD
08-24-2012, 03:09 PM
Hamilton doesn't swing at too many non strikes from what I have seen. But he often is very off balance in his swing as he starts too early and just uses a flailing arm swing to try and do something with an offspeed pitch. That suggests to me that while he can determine the strikezone pretty good, he doesn't differentiate well between pitches.

ok, thanks.. what you say makes sense.

Jamz
08-25-2012, 07:31 AM
With that said since moving up he's cut down his strikeout rate and his walk rate has gone up again.

In 82 games at single A he had 70 strikeouts and 50 walks. His current pace at AA has him going for 64 walks and 64 strikeouts in 82 games. Doesn't seem that significant but it is.

dougdirt
08-25-2012, 11:25 AM
His strikeout rate has actually gone up. In Bakersfield he had a 17.8% K rate. In Pensacola it is 18.4%. In the grand scheme of things, that really isn't a difference. But yeah, it hasn't actually gone down.

scott91575
08-26-2012, 06:01 AM
His strikeout rate has actually gone up. In Bakersfield he had a 17.8% K rate. In Pensacola it is 18.4%. In the grand scheme of things, that really isn't a difference. But yeah, it hasn't actually gone down.

Too small of a comparison sample size to consider 0.6% an actual increase mid season. I am sure you could pick out the same amount of at bats in A+ where he has 18.4% K rate or above. That is what statisticians would call normal variance/within normal distribution. Plus, it's 0.6% at a higher level.

Yet his K rate was much higher in A and rookie ball. That is not normal variance. That is actual improvement.

If you actually want to point to something statistically relevant that is a difference it's his caught stealing rate.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 11:43 AM
Too small of a comparison sample size to consider 0.6% an actual increase mid season. I am sure you could pick out the same amount of at bats in A+ where he has 18.4% K rate or above. That is what statisticians would call normal variance/within normal distribution. Plus, it's 0.6% at a higher level.

Yet his K rate was much higher in A and rookie ball. That is not normal variance. That is actual improvement.

If you actually want to point to something statistically relevant that is a difference it's his caught stealing rate.

In Billings, his K rate was 17.7%. That is 0.1% lower than where it was in Bakersfield and 0.7% lower than where it is in Pensacola. Yes, it is better than it was in Dayton. But it isn't any better than it was the year before that.

scott91575
08-26-2012, 04:27 PM
In Billings, his K rate was 17.7%. That is 0.1% lower than where it was in Bakersfield and 0.7% lower than where it is in Pensacola. Yes, it is better than it was in Dayton. But it isn't any better than it was the year before that.

And it's high A and AA vs. rookie ball. His combined rookie ball rate was 20.7%.

BTW...a K rate of 18% is not bad. That would place him 27th in the national league.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 05:54 PM
And it's high A and AA vs. rookie ball. His combined rookie ball rate was 20.7%.

BTW...a K rate of 18% is not bad. That would place him 27th in the national league.

A k rate that high with no power to speak of, that isn't good.

Basically though, what I am saying is that Hamilton isn't really showing off some kind of contact rate that we haven't seen from him before. He was better, albeit by an insanely small amount, in Billings, than he has been at any other level.

If you lower the threshold to 300 PA's this year, 18% would rank you 114th in baseball.

Jamz
08-26-2012, 11:01 PM
It's nice to see, however, that in his last 10 games he's batting .444/.571/.519 (OPSing at 1.090.)

I think he was pressing, too, to get the stolen bases record. Now that the pressure is off he's going to do better at the plate. Just my opinion, though.

scott91575
08-27-2012, 02:06 AM
A k rate that high with no power to speak of, that isn't good.

Basically though, what I am saying is that Hamilton isn't really showing off some kind of contact rate that we haven't seen from him before. He was better, albeit by an insanely small amount, in Billings, than he has been at any other level.

If you lower the threshold to 300 PA's this year, 18% would rank you 114th in baseball.

He has made improvements by being able to keep the same K rate as his second year in rookie ball. How about that? Isn't A+ and AA better than Rookie ball? If you keep the same or better stats as you move up in the minors, isn't he getting better?

A 18% K rate is not bad. It is better than average. How does more power make a high K rate better? Just because a guy hits for more power it doesn't mean a non power hitter should go up just trying to make contact. The name of the game is hitting line drives, and that is exactly what Hamilton should be learning in the minors. Hitting the ball hard on a line. Not just making contact. Sure, he has speed but if you teach him just to make contact then MLB infields will kill him. It's fine to slip in a bunt or a contact swing here and there, yet he needs to know how to hit the ball hard even if it doesn't go over the wall.

Finally, strikeout rate is a pretty useless stat anyway. It's been proven over and over again that it's nothing more than a periphery stat for hitters. That is why it's not used in things like wOBA or WAR. The old way of thinking that a fast guy should simply try and put the ball in play is dead. He needs to learn to be a hitter, not a glorified bunter. Infields have to play in to respect his speed. Trying to get him to simply lower K rate would detrimental since he would be playing right into the defense. He need to hit the ball hard as often as he can (which can lower K rate as he gets better at it). Yet if that means a K rate at 18% so be it. Strikeout rate should never be a focus. Now, if he becomes a complete lost cause with the bat then coaches can think about teaching him simply to put the bat on the ball. Yet that is far from the case right now.

dougdirt
08-27-2012, 07:05 AM
Strikeouts matter. They do. They aren't the be all and end all, but they matter. They matter because everyone has a BABIP limit.

Hamilton can succeed with an 18% K rate. But the amount of absolutely no power hitters who can are very rare because of that BABIP limit mixed in with the fact that guys without any power at all generally don't walk.

powersackers
08-28-2012, 02:01 PM
Billy up by almost 500 votes.

REDREAD
08-30-2012, 01:38 PM
I've deleted my browser cookies and voted for Billy multiple times to make up for the pessemists :)