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View Full Version : 3 things that should be done before our postseason



George Foster
08-19-2012, 11:06 PM
I know we are 26 games above .500. We are in 1st place. We have also feasted on some bad teams...which we should.

What concerns me is our run production against good and just plain OK starting pitching. If we make the playoffs,(we will know how good we are against the Phillies and Cards) we will face good if not great starting pitching every game.

This is what should be done in my opinion, to help this line-up get more runners on base in more crucial times.

1) Hannigan should be moved up to bat 2nd. The dude is batting .284 with a 368 on base percentage. Do you know how hard this is batting 8th...with the pitcher hitting behind you? Absolutely no protection. What would be his average with Phillips hitting behind him or Votto when he returns? How many more RBI's would Phillips or Votto have? Stubbs in comparison, has a horrible .295 OBP with 116 STRIKEOUTS.. Hannigan has only 30 K's..Stubbs has 140 more AB's. If we make the playoff's...Hannigan should start every game...I don't remember Molina taking off any days last year in October.

2) Frazier has to play over Rolan. I'm a huge Scotty fan, but Frazier is an everyday player. Scotty plays on Sunday and pinch hits. Start Frazier. He has to be in the everyday lineup.

3) When Votto comes back, Paul has to stay on this team. Cairo has to be released. I'm assuming Dusty want's to keep the same number in the bullpen. Heisey has a lot more pop in his bat and can play all OF positions...you keep him too. I love ya Cairo but Paul has taken your spot.

Do you agree?

cincrazy
08-19-2012, 11:12 PM
I think the Reds wait to bring Votto back until September for this very reason. They won't have to release anyone when he comes back, the rosters will expand to 40. Cairo can stay, Paul can stay. All is right in the world.

I agree, Hanigan should be moved up. But I think most of us know that won't happen. I'd like to see BP hit leadoff and Luddy cleanup, but I don't think that's happening either.

I actually don't mind Scotty playing in the playoffs if he feels fresh. When he's been healthy this season, he's been stellar. He still has enough in the tank when it counts. And Frazier will get some playing time in the postseason depending on matchups. I think Dusty will handle it well.

VR
08-19-2012, 11:16 PM
Rolen's OPS (1.040) is .170 higher than Frazier's post all-star break.

A lot of us haven't been paying attention.


Hanny at #2 doesn't work for me. Give me Cozart at 2, Stubbs at 7, life is good.

Brutus
08-19-2012, 11:17 PM
I know we are 26 games above .500. We are in 1st place. We have also feasted on some bad teams...which we should.

What concerns me is our run production against good and just plain OK starting pitching. If we make the playoffs,(we will know how good we are against the Phillies and Cards) we will face good if not great starting pitching every game.

This is what should be done in my opinion, to help this line-up get more runners on base in more crucial times.

1) Hannigan should be moved up to bat 2nd. The dude is batting .284 with a 368 on base percentage. Do you know how hard this is batting 8th...with the pitcher hitting behind you? Absolutely no protection. What would be his average with Phillips hitting behind him or Votto when he returns? How many more RBI's would Phillips or Votto have? Stubbs in comparison, has a horrible .295 OBP with 116 STRIKEOUTS.. Hannigan has only 30 K's..Stubbs has 140 more AB's. If we make the playoff's...Hannigan should start every game...I don't remember Molina taking off any days last year in October.

2) Frazier has to play over Rolan. I'm a huge Scotty fan, but Frazier is an everyday player. Scotty plays on Sunday and pinch hits. Start Frazier. He has to be in the everyday lineup.

3) When Votto comes back, Paul has to stay on this team. Cairo has to be released. I'm assuming Dusty want's to keep the same number in the bullpen. Heisey has a lot more pop in his bat and can play all OF positions...you keep him too. I love ya Cairo but Paul has taken your spot.

Do you agree?

Regarding 1., I'm not opposed to having Hanigan near the top of the order, but I think this move isn't quite as attractive as people make it out to be simply because of his dearth of running ability. Nonetheless, the Reds do need to get guys on base in front of Votto-Ludwick, etc. so it's probably an improvement.

Regarding 2, who's Rolan? :)

As far as 3, I'd rather have Cairo than Valdez, but I know that's probably not going to fly simply because Cairo isn't the most graceful of fielders to be playing shortstop at this point in his career.

kaldaniels
08-19-2012, 11:20 PM
It would all be roses if Hanny hit second right up until the day he gets thrown at at home trying to score from third on a base hit.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-19-2012, 11:26 PM
I know we are 26 games above .500. We are in 1st place. We have also feasted on some bad teams...which we should.

What concerns me is our run production against good and just plain OK starting pitching. If we make the playoffs,(we will know how good we are against the Phillies and Cards) we will face good if not great starting pitching every game.

This is what should be done in my opinion, to help this line-up get more runners on base in more crucial times.

1) Hannigan should be moved up to bat 2nd. The dude is batting .284 with a 368 on base percentage. Do you know how hard this is batting 8th...with the pitcher hitting behind you? Absolutely no protection. What would be his average with Phillips hitting behind him or Votto when he returns? How many more RBI's would Phillips or Votto have? Stubbs in comparison, has a horrible .295 OBP with 116 STRIKEOUTS.. Hannigan has only 30 K's..Stubbs has 140 more AB's. If we make the playoff's...Hannigan should start every game...I don't remember Molina taking off any days last year in October.

2) Frazier has to play over Rolan. I'm a huge Scotty fan, but Frazier is an everyday player. Scotty plays on Sunday and pinch hits. Start Frazier. He has to be in the everyday lineup.

3) When Votto comes back, Paul has to stay on this team. Cairo has to be released. I'm assuming Dusty want's to keep the same number in the bullpen. Heisey has a lot more pop in his bat and can play all OF positions...you keep him too. I love ya Cairo but Paul has taken your spot.

Do you agree?

Cairo is absolutely not getting released mid-season by the Reds. That's just not how this team operates. Not to mention the fact that Dusty loves veterans and he's not ditching a playoff-experience vet during the stretch drive in favor of a bunch of unknowns.

Just not gonna happen.

I think Miguel Cairo makes the playoff roster. I think XP does too.

George Foster
08-19-2012, 11:28 PM
I think the Reds wait to bring Votto back until September for this very reason. They won't have to release anyone when he comes back, the rosters will expand to 40. Cairo can stay, Paul can stay. All is right in the world.

Who makes your playoff roster? You can't have 40..

Sea Ray
08-19-2012, 11:28 PM
We've got less than 2 wks 'till rosters expand. There's no sense in releasing anyone. If we're talking about not including Cairo on our playoff roster, I'll listen

The Voice of IH
08-19-2012, 11:33 PM
I think the Reds wait to bring Votto back until September for this very reason. They won't have to release anyone when he comes back, the rosters will expand to 40. Cairo can stay, Paul can stay. All is right in the world.


I don't think the Reds will hold back Joey Votto so they can keep Cairo. As soon as Votto is ready to comeback, be it tomorrow or August 31st, he needs to be in the line up.

Which by the way, will help this offense in the playoffs :eek:

kaldaniels
08-19-2012, 11:36 PM
Valdez is my weakest link right now. I'd be searching for an upgrade via waiver trade right now. He's the only real backup SS so he has a roster spot for now, but he just isn't producing at the plate whatsoever...like .500ish OPS the past 2 months.

Miggy seems to have been snapping out of it lately so I will go with the hot (or lukewarm) hand and not focus on upgrading him for now.

George Foster
08-19-2012, 11:40 PM
Valdez is my weakest link right now. I'd be searching for an upgrade via waiver trade right now. He's the only real backup SS so he has a roster spot for now, but he just isn't producing at the plate whatsoever...like .500ish OPS the past 2 months.

Miggy seems to have been snapping out of it lately so I will go with the hot (or lukewarm) hand and focus on upgrading him for now.

I was thinking as you but Miggy would be brutal at SS if Cozart went down in the playoffs..Valdez would be better....but at the plate? Not a good situation.

kaldaniels
08-19-2012, 11:43 PM
I was thinking as you but Miggy would be brutal at SS if Cozart went down in the playoffs..Valdez would be better....but at the plate? Not a good situation.

Oh no question about it. Until you get a new backup SS, Valdez stays. That's why I mentioned the waiver trade.

Edit - I mispoke. I would NOT focus on upgrading Miggy.

reds44
08-20-2012, 12:06 AM
Ryan Hanigan has a .720 OPS and he has been intentionally walked 10 times. If you bat him 2nd he'll have 0 IBBs and his OPS will be in the .600's and he's slower than death.

kaldaniels
08-20-2012, 12:10 AM
Ryan Hanigan has a .720 OPS and he has been intentionally walked 10 times. If you bat him 2nd he'll have 0 IBBs and his OPS will be in the .600's and he's slower than death.

Nice thought to remove the IBB from the equation...that makes sense.

Brutus
08-20-2012, 12:12 AM
Ryan Hanigan has a .720 OPS and he has been intentionally walked 10 times. If you bat him 2nd he'll have 0 IBBs and his OPS will be in the .600's and he's slower than death.

While I agree with the speed concern, he would not be batting second because of his slugging. His OBP is .368 and even without the intentional walks, it would be (probably) around .350. The idea is to get people on base in front of Votto/Ludwick/Frazier, and that would certainly do the trick.

I do agree with the speed concern, though. I think that would partially mitigate some of the OBP points.

George Foster
08-20-2012, 12:13 AM
Ryan Hanigan has a .720 OPS and he has been intentionally walked 10 times. If you bat him 2nd he'll have 0 IBBs and his OPS will be in the .600's and he's slower than death.

that's assuming that in those 10 intentional walks he would of made 10 outs if pitched too.

Your saying that Stubbs or Cozart is a better option than Hannigan batting 2nd? 70 points higher in OBP is not significant?

reds44
08-20-2012, 12:22 AM
that's assuming that in those 10 intentional walks he would of made 10 outs if pitched too.

Your saying that Stubbs or Cozart is a better option than Hannigan batting 2nd? 70 points higher in OBP is not significant?
I'd rather just leave it how it is. I don't think Hanigan is enough of an offensive improvement over either of them to warrant a change. Not to mention he only plays 60% of the time.

RED VAN HOT
08-20-2012, 01:05 AM
Regarding playoff roster...Do the Reds really need to carry 12 pitchers? One of the starters will go to the pen. I suspect that the Reds will use the DL to postpone the final roster decision beyond the 31st.

mth123
08-20-2012, 07:15 AM
Regarding playoff roster...Do the Reds really need to carry 12 pitchers? One of the starters will go to the pen. I suspect that the Reds will use the DL to postpone the final roster decision beyond the 31st.

Exactly.

My three things.

1. Acquire David Dejesus.
2. Activate Joey Votto, Nick Masset and Bill Bray and use the DL to keep options open and get guys with minor injuries healthy and ready for the post season (Cairo, Lecure, Ondrusek, Broxton, Rolen, etc,)
3. Find a Way to Use a 3 Man rotation in the post season

Play-off Roster

Pitchers

1. Cueto
2. Latos
3. Arroyo

4. Lecure/Leake/Bailey
5. Simon
6. Bray
7. Arredondo
8. Masset
9. Broxton
10. Marshall
11. Chapman

12. Hanigan
13. Mesoraco
14. Votto
15. Phillps
16. Cozart
17. Rolen
18. Frazier
19. Valdez
20. Ludwick
21. Dejesus
22. Bruce
23. Paul
24. Stubbs
25. Heisey

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 07:37 AM
1) Hannigan should be moved up to bat 2nd. The dude is batting .284 with a 368 on base percentage. Do you know how hard this is batting 8th...with the pitcher hitting behind you? Absolutely no protection. What would be his average with Phillips hitting behind him or Votto when he returns?

Even if his BA went up, his OBA would surely suffer.

His OPS is OBA (or more specifically, walk) driven. That's a refection of him being willing to allow himself to be pitched around, an impostant ingredient to hitting 8th.

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 07:41 AM
I think Miguel Cairo makes the playoff roster. I think XP does too.

That would mean one of Rolen, Valdez, Heisey or Frazier doesn't make it.

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 07:43 AM
Exactly.

My three things.

1. Acquire David Dejesus.
2. Activate Joey Votto, Nick Masset and Bill Bray and use the DL to keep options open and get guys with minor injuries healthy and ready for the post season (Cairo, Lecure, Ondrusek, Broxton, Rolen, etc,)
3. Find a Way to Use a 3 Man rotation in the post season

Play-off Roster

Pitchers

1. Cueto
2. Latos
3. Arroyo

4. Lecure/Leake/Bailey
5. Simon
6. Bray
7. Arredondo
8. Masset
9. Broxton
10. Marshall
11. Chapman

12. Hanigan
13. Mesoraco
14. Votto
15. Phillps
16. Cozart
17. Rolen
18. Frazier
19. Valdez
20. Ludwick
21. Dejesus
22. Bruce
23. Paul
24. Stubbs
25. Heisey

I can see them going with only 11 pitchers in the postseason, but they won't start using a rotation under which the starters are not getting 4 days rest.

edabbs44
08-20-2012, 07:58 AM
That would mean one of Rolen, Valdez, Heisey or Frazier doesn't make it.

Off the top of my head, wouldn't it have to be Heisey?

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 08:05 AM
Off the top of my head, wouldn't it have to be Heisey?

Heisey isn't sitting for Paul, much less Cairo.

It's gotta be Cairo or Valdez. Of course they would only do that if they felt Cozart would play every inning of every game. Any injury would force them to DL him immediately to bring in Valdez (though we'd have Cairo or Frazier playing SS for the balance of the game). That seems an unnecessary risk to simply keep Cairo around.

cumberlandreds
08-20-2012, 08:34 AM
Regarding playoff roster...Do the Reds really need to carry 12 pitchers? One of the starters will go to the pen. I suspect that the Reds will use the DL to postpone the final roster decision beyond the 31st.

I think they will go with one less pitcher. My guess would be LeCure since he has been having some shoulder problems. So they could keep Cairo,Paul and everyone else currently on the bench for the playoffs.

Vottomatic
08-20-2012, 09:34 AM
My only desire is to platoon Paul with Stubbs. Stubbs against lefties, Paul against righties.

It can't hurt to try. And it should be tried for more than just one game.

mattfeet
08-20-2012, 09:51 AM
I dont think we'll ever see a catcher hit 2nd in a Dusty lineup. While it makes sense to us, it won't really bother me if it never happens.

That said, I simply do not understand Dusty's logic on NOT putting BPhil to leadoff and have Ludwick hit cleanup. At the ASB, Jocketty was on the hunt for a cleanup hitter. We have one - it's Ryan Ludwick. I fail to see how BP is viewed as a better cleanup than Ludwick.

- Phillips
- Cozart
- Votto
- Ludwick
- Bruce
- Frazier/Rolen
- Stubbs
- HaniMes
- P

That's a GOOD lineup. If only it'd be used...

mattfeet
08-20-2012, 09:52 AM
My only desire is to platoon Paul with Stubbs. Stubbs against lefties, Paul against righties.

It can't hurt to try. And it should be tried for more than just one game.

Can Paul play an adequate CF?

westofyou
08-20-2012, 10:48 AM
Can Paul play an adequate CF?

5 starts in 77 starts at CF

I'm guessing, no he can't.

And "things" like that are tried during spring training or losing seasons, not seasons like the Reds are having.

The mantra of this team has always had an undercurrent of defense first, doubtful that will change in late August

REDREAD
08-20-2012, 11:04 AM
that's assuming that in those 10 intentional walks he would of made 10 outs if pitched too.

Your saying that Stubbs or Cozart is a better option than Hannigan batting 2nd? 70 points higher in OBP is not significant?

YEs, I agree with Dusty. I'd rather have Stubbs/Cozart at the top of the order vs Hannigan.

Both Stubbs/Cozart have more power than Hannigan, and more speed.
They can get into scoring position easier.
I also think Hannigan's OBP plummets when he's not hitting 8th.
Hannigan is the perfect #8 hitter. He will take those walks (including the "pitch arounds) when people are on base and the pitcher would rather face the pitcher.

traderumor
08-20-2012, 11:13 AM
While I agree with the speed concern, he would not be batting second because of his slugging. His OBP is .368 and even without the intentional walks, it would be (probably) around .350. The idea is to get people on base in front of Votto/Ludwick/Frazier, and that would certainly do the trick.

I do agree with the speed concern, though. I think that would partially mitigate some of the OBP points.You also have to consider pitching around walks for a #8 hitter also. Hanigan would get challenged more as a #2 hitter, and I don't think he'd be up to that challenge. The lineup when Votto returns should be Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, Rolen, Stubbs, Hanigan.

Degenerate39
08-20-2012, 11:45 AM
You also have to consider pitching around walks for a #8 hitter also. Hanigan would get challenged more as a #2 hitter, and I don't think he'd be up to that challenge. The lineup when Votto returns should be Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, Rolen, Stubbs, Hanigan.

What about having Stubbs in the 8th spot? Increase his walks and utilize his speed on the basepaths

OesterPoster
08-20-2012, 11:50 AM
I don't think Dusty wants Stubbs hitting after Hannigan. With Hannigan on base so often, Stubbs' speed would be almost useless. Stubbs in front of Hannigan is ideal, partially due to Hannigan's awesome contact rate. Allows Dusty all kinds of hit-and-run opportunities.

RedsManRick
08-20-2012, 12:14 PM
You also have to consider pitching around walks for a #8 hitter also. Hanigan would get challenged more as a #2 hitter, and I don't think he'd be up to that challenge. The lineup when Votto returns should be Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, Rolen, Stubbs, Hanigan.

Ryan Hanigan sees ~51% of pitches in the strike zone. MLB average this year is 49%.

Personally, I share your skepticism. However, we're talking about a 70 point difference in OBP. We're not talking about a minor upgrade here. That difference over the # of Stubbs has accrued would be 31 more times on base so far this year.

League average in terms of scoring when on base is about ~14%. Presumably it's higher for a guy in the 2 hole and higher for fast baserunners. In any event, the differece between Stubbs/Cozart and Hanigan would thus be in the ballpark of 5 runs. And depending on just how much of a difference speed makes, it could be less. So is the lineup a "big deal" then? No. Not really.

However, I do find think it's silly to not do something just because the effect is small. Managers constantly talk about players paying attention to detail and always giving 100% effort. You have to be ready to take advantage of the opportunities you get and so forth. Heck, the Reds team philosophy regarding taking the extra base is a perfect example of this.

And yet, when there's an opportunity to do the same in the lineup, they choose not to. But when you figure that Dusty likely thinks the effect of speed offsets the OBP difference (and could be right) and when you factor in that he places a high priority on catcher's staying focused on defense, you can see where he's coming from.

It's easy for us fans to rag on batting order because it seems so obvious and easy to "fix". But it's worth remembering that at the end of the day, what drives your offensive production is guys hitting, period. The batting order might be an annoyance because of it being a constant reminder of Dusty's priorities, but it frankly simply isn't a big enough deal to get worked up about. And if Stubbs and/or Cozart was performing at the .320-330 OBP level that one might predict is where their true talent lies then the difference is even smaller, if not non-existent.

Raisor
08-20-2012, 12:15 PM
Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Ludwick
Frazier (Rolen)
Cozart
Stubbs
Hannigan
Pitcher

Print world series t-shirts

westofyou
08-20-2012, 12:21 PM
I know that some of the ballpark philosophy of batting the catcher lower in the order involves 2 factors from the defensive side that leak into that positions offensive game in the first inning at home.

1. The catcher has to quickly remove his equipment to get ready to bat.
2. the catcher is now not available to discuss the game/pitch selection with the pitcher and coaching staff.

Small stuff... or is it?

Homer Bailey
08-20-2012, 12:23 PM
Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Ludwick
Frazier (Rolen)
Cozart
Stubbs
Hannigan
Pitcher

Print world series t-shirts

The Mayans must have been right, because this would be the end of the world, with the two lefties back to back.

dabvu2498
08-20-2012, 02:43 PM
5 starts in 77 starts at CF

I'm guessing, no he can't.



You may be correct, but he wasn't going to get much time in CF with Kemp and McCutcheon on the roster in front of him in his previous 2 stops.

Edit: 287 of 710 minor league games in CF. He may be adequate.

westofyou
08-20-2012, 02:46 PM
You may be correct, but he wasn't going to get much time in CF with Kemp and McCutcheon on the roster in front of him in his previous 2 stops.

True, very true.

Looks like they were weaning him away from there in the minors

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=paul--001xav

reds44
08-20-2012, 02:46 PM
Cairo has to be the one left off the playoff roster. He can't be on it over Paul or Heisey, and you need Valdez to back up Cozart. Frazier can back up Votto/Rolen and Valdez backs up Cozart/Phillips.

Now where things get interesting is if the Reds decide they want Hamilton on the playoff roster.

I don't see anyway Dejesus makes it to the Reds on waivers. He's affordable and a pretty decent player.

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 03:01 PM
You also have to consider pitching around walks for a #8 hitter also. Hanigan would get challenged more as a #2 hitter, and I don't think he'd be up to that challenge. The lineup when Votto returns should be Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, Rolen, Stubbs, Hanigan.


I think Bruce makes the lineup.

LoganBuck
08-20-2012, 03:04 PM
Somehow or other, I firmly believe that Billy Hamilton will be on the playoff roster. The day of reckoning is coming on Aug 31. He has to be added to the 40 man on that day to be playoff eligible.

LoganBuck
08-20-2012, 03:05 PM
I think Bruce makes the lineup.

Yep.

Wonderful Monds
08-20-2012, 03:08 PM
I think Bruce makes the lineup.

2B Phillips
LF Frazier
1B Votto
RF Ludwick
CF Bruce
3B Rolen
SS Cozart
C Hanigan

Brutus
08-20-2012, 03:10 PM
Somehow or other, I firmly believe that Billy Hamilton will be on the playoff roster. The day of reckoning is coming on Aug 31. He has to be added to the 40 man on that day to be playoff eligible.

I'd be shocked of that. Probably more shocked by that than anything else I've seen the Reds do lol

I think they'll keep the possibility open, though. They'd probably have him report for the game that day (it's in Houston) and then activate him after the game. But when push comes to shove, while I imagine he'll be with the club in September, I can't see them putting him on the playoff roster unless he's able to contribute as a hitter.

traderumor
08-20-2012, 03:14 PM
I think Bruce makes the lineup.lol, yea, forgot about the little problem we'll have with finding a place for Frazier. Really, it was just a Freudian slip from continuing to play sloppy RF.

LoganBuck
08-20-2012, 03:17 PM
I'd be shocked of that. Probably more shocked by that than anything else I've seen the Reds do lol

I think they'll keep the possibility open, though. They'd probably have him report for the game that day (it's in Houston) and then activate him after the game. But when push comes to shove, while I imagine he'll be with the club in September, I can't see them putting him on the playoff roster unless he's able to contribute as a hitter.

I don't think I would be shocked, or even have too much reaction one way or another. There is too much smoke that keeps coming from that direction. The beat writers, announcers, and Dusty himself. Someone in the front office could easily squash that talk. They could all ignore, or deny that possibility. If they weren't going to use him on the playoff roster, I would not bring him up in September. It would cost them a 40 man spot over the winter, and start his arb clock (which I don't really care about).

reds44
08-20-2012, 03:31 PM
2B Phillips
LF Frazier
1B Votto
RF Ludwick
CF Bruce
3B Rolen
SS Cozart
C Hanigan
I love this idea.

It'll never happen.

_Sir_Charles_
08-20-2012, 03:44 PM
It would all be roses if Hanny hit second right up until the day he gets thrown at at home trying to score from third on a base hit.

Simple solution really. I'm kinda surprised nobody here's thought of it.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_BDysdKuiN_0/Sq6mo9sY-JI/AAAAAAAAACg/0hUzbnKEXBQ/s320/RocketShoes1.jpg
Rocket shoes. So simple.

_Sir_Charles_
08-20-2012, 03:53 PM
I know that some of the ballpark philosophy of batting the catcher lower in the order involves 2 factors from the defensive side that leak into that positions offensive game in the first inning at home.

1. The catcher has to quickly remove his equipment to get ready to bat.
2. the catcher is now not available to discuss the game/pitch selection with the pitcher and coaching staff.

Small stuff... or is it?

It's things like this that get overlooked by the casual fan. WoY is NOT your casual fan. :thumbup:

Spitball
08-20-2012, 04:06 PM
His OBP is .368 and even without the intentional walks, it would be (probably) around .350.

We can remove the obvious/official intentional walks, but how many unofficial/intentional walks has Hanigan received? Number eight hitters in the National League will be "pitched around" in certain situations with the pitcher coming up.

Vottomatic
08-20-2012, 05:16 PM
Somehow or other, I firmly believe that Billy Hamilton will be on the playoff roster. The day of reckoning is coming on Aug 31. He has to be added to the 40 man on that day to be playoff eligible.

Hmmm. I'll be shocked if he's added.

Seems like they're already in a scramble over who gets sent down or released if they bring Joey back before September.

I think it's iffy that they bring him as a September "get your feet wet" move.

Maybe to sell more tickets. But the attendance lately says they don't need any gimmicks. And the Cardinals series will guarantee another sellout this weekend. Oops.........maybe I got it wrong........is that in St. Louis or at home this coming weekend?

The Snow Chief
08-20-2012, 06:54 PM
Hmmm. I'll be shocked if he's added.

Seems like they're already in a scramble over who gets sent down or released if they bring Joey back before September.

I think it's iffy that they bring him as a September "get your feet wet" move.

Maybe to sell more tickets. But the attendance lately says they don't need any gimmicks. And the Cardinals series will guarantee another sellout this weekend. Oops.........maybe I got it wrong........is that in St. Louis or at home this coming weekend?

Valdez is the backup SS. The only way I want to see him in the playoffs is if Cozart gets hurt. Other than the backup catcher, he would probably be the last option as a PH. If the Reds feel that Hamilton can be an adequate backup SS defensively, then I think he is valuable on the roster as a late inning pinch runner. That could swing one playoff game in the direction of the Reds. If Cozart gets hurt, then Hamilton plays the remainder of the game and you DL Cozart in favor of Valdez after the game. I don't want Hamilton starting or getting plate appearances other than in an emergency to finish out one game.

If the Reds feel Hamilton would not lose the game for them with his glove if Cozart goes down (I have never seen him play defensively) and he demonstrates that he is an intelligent base runner during September (not getting picked off), I think the idea is interesting. If Cozart is not hurt in the playoffs, he is more valuable than Valdez. In an extra inning game, Mike Leake could pinch hit and be almost as effective as Valdez IMO.

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 07:19 PM
For a team that has won all year with pitching and defense, I really doubt they will weaken themselves considerably at every OF position by going with a Frazier-Bruce-Ludwick combo out here.

REDREAD
08-20-2012, 07:40 PM
League average in terms of scoring when on base is about ~14%. Presumably it's higher for a guy in the 2 hole and higher for fast baserunners. In any event, the differece between Stubbs/Cozart and Hanigan would thus be in the ballpark of 5 runs. And depending on just how much of a difference speed makes, it could be less. So is the lineup a "big deal" then? No. Not really.
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If that is true (the average runner scores when they get on base 14% of the time), that's a compelling argument to keep Stubbs at the top of the lineup..

Career numbers.. Stubbs has 473 hits + 169 walks. He has scored 277 runs.
That's a rate of scoring of 43.1%, which is pretty darn impressive. I guess the perception is that he's benefited from hitting in front of Votto most of his career. That is true to some extent, but if you look at his career splits, he's appeared in 270 games batting #1 or #2. He's appeared in 183 games batting in other places.. So the "top of the order" benefit is not as great as it appears.

Maybe Hannigan is an upgrade at the top of the order.. I'm not discounting that.. However, I think there's more than just comparing OBP in making this decision.. Drew's power and speed leads to a lot of runs scored. With 40 games left, he's on pace to score 93 runs this year, despite being OBP challenged.