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View Full Version : Reds-Phils series 8/20



Kc61
08-20-2012, 09:57 AM
Here's a preview of the next series in the pennant race.

Reds play in Philadelphia four games. Leake-Halladay, Bailey-Lee, Arroyo-Worley, Cueto-Hamels. All night games. Reds and Phils haven't played this season as yet, have seven games from here on out. Thursday game could be big pitching duel with Cueto and Hamels both below 3.00 ERA.

Phils are nine games below .500, seven below at home. They are 6-4 over their last ten games. Phils with a .709 team OPS, eleventh in NL. Phils with 4.03 team ERA, tenth in NL. Post ASB, Phils hitting is even worse, .685 team OPS, but pitching is much improved, 3.51. Obviously, Pence and Victorino have been moved.

Pirates at SD. Pirates starter tonight unknown, followed by Burnett and McDonald. SD with Volquez, Marquis, and unknown. Pirates are off Thursday, then go home to face Mike Fiers and Brewers. Padres are not bad at home, 28-32. Padres are 4-6 over last ten games.

Cards off tonight and then face Astros at St. Louis. Astros road record is 12-48. Astros have won 3 of last 10. Harrell v. Wainright Tuesday. Harrell 10-8 with 3.81 should win Cy Young award playing with Astros. Then Norris v. Lohse. Then lefty Dallas Keuchel v. Westbrook.

traderumor
08-20-2012, 10:08 AM
I have predicted a split for this series. In the big picture, losing 3 of 4 and winning the Cards series at home will probably be enough to keep this vessel on course. Philly has had our number recently, so I'm not expecting much even though we have an overall better team. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised, but honestly, I'll just take one in this series.

SirFelixCat
08-20-2012, 10:12 AM
I am thrilled with a split in Philly. The pitching is tough. I'll worry about St.Louis next series.

cumberlandreds
08-20-2012, 10:13 AM
Tough four games series. The Phils are reseaonably healthy now. Its never been easy for the Reds to go to Philly and win. A split in this series would be huge. The next 10 games may determine if the Reds will have fairly easy September and will be be gearing up for the playoffs or it may be a dogfight. Win 6 or more and you will have the former. Just two or three wins and September will be a tough month.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-20-2012, 10:18 AM
I'll take a split right now, no questions asked. The first two games of this series scare me the most.

traderumor
08-20-2012, 10:54 AM
Hopefully the Reds hitters aren't as intimidated by the names as we are. I just looked at numbers and feel like we should be able to have a normal series here this season. Halladay may be tough, been pitching well of late. Lee, not so much, Worley is giving up runs, 4 in each of his last three starts. Hamels is a Reds killer, maybe Cueto can match him for 7 innings and see which bullpen wins. A split seems like a reasonable estimate here. Of course, we need Leake, Bailey and Arroyo to have good games, which they have been a real mixed bag of late.

mdccclxix
08-20-2012, 10:57 AM
I'd love the Reds to exercise some demons in this series and take 3 of 4. I'll be watching closely to see how the team plays defensively after Dusty's comments. It's been a little sloppy. If the pitching can hold up, they should be playing for the win on Thursday.

Kc61
08-20-2012, 11:02 AM
Another way to look at this is Reds play 7 with Philly over next few weeks.

Altogether, I'd love 5-2, but realistically would be satisfied with 4-3.

3-4 wouldn't be disastrous either. Worse than that is not good.

Tom Servo
08-20-2012, 11:59 AM
Just can't let their starting pitchers have easy innings. The Philadelphia bullpen is down there with the Cubs, Mets, Brewers, and Astros.

RedsMan3203
08-20-2012, 12:22 PM
With this team... Anything is possible.... and sweeping the Phils isn't out of the question...

But, with the Law of Averages... I see a 4 game split with an outside chance of 3 out of 4.

Tadasimha
08-20-2012, 12:38 PM
What I want to see in this series is the team continuing with the confidence and swagger they've been playing with the past couple of months. I don't want to see them up there at the plate waiting for Hallady and Hamels to get a 0-2 count. I do want to see the starting rotation continue solid pitching (or get back to solid pitching) and no bullpen meltdowns. They need to show to themselves and the rest of the league that they can compete against anyone and can beat any time anywhere, home or on the road.

A split with four close games would be great, imho. Taking three games would not be out of the question, though.

MikeThierry
08-20-2012, 12:49 PM
Halladay has a 2.25 ERA in the last 28 days. When he faced the Cards, he was a bad, bad, bad dude. What ever struggles he had early, he's money right now.

redsmetz
08-20-2012, 12:53 PM
I'd love the Reds to exercise some demons in this series and take 3 of 4. I'll be watching closely to see how the team plays defensively after Dusty's comments. It's been a little sloppy. If the pitching can hold up, they should be playing for the win on Thursday.

Why take all that time exercising them? Let's save the time and just exorcise them. :D

P.S. I agree though and I'm hoping to see much better defense too.

mdccclxix
08-20-2012, 02:09 PM
Why take all that time exercising them? Let's save the time and just exorcise them. :D

P.S. I agree though and I'm hoping to see much better defense too.

Hahaha, good one, thank you!

Jamz
08-20-2012, 02:55 PM
I'm not too keen on those pitching match ups -- but it also really depends on which version of each pitcher shows up. Halladay, though great recently, has definitely had his struggles this year. Leake and Bailey both have the ability to shut down other teams when their focus is on. Worley has really seemed to have a hard time as the season has gotten longer -- maybe he's tiring?

I would really be happy with splitting with Philly, but I see the potential for there to be more. They don't exactly have a frightening line-up, but again ours can be stagnant at times as well. I expect this series will be decided by the pitchers (sounds weird, because if you want to be a stickler every game is decided by the pitcher but yeah.)

PuffyPig
08-20-2012, 04:07 PM
I expect this series will be decided by the pitchers (sounds weird, because if you want to be a stickler every game is decided by the pitcher but yeah.)

Couldn't you just as easily say that it will be decided by the hitters?

REDREAD
08-20-2012, 04:18 PM
Another way to look at this is Reds play 7 with Philly over next few weeks.

Altogether, I'd love 5-2, but realistically would be satisfied with 4-3.

3-4 wouldn't be disastrous either. Worse than that is not good.

That's what I'm hoping for: 4-3.. Anything better would be awesome.
3-4 would not be devastating, but I'd like to see the Reds keep rolling.

Patrick Bateman
08-20-2012, 04:21 PM
Couldn't you just as easily say that it will be decided by the hitters?

I expect the series to be decided by a combination of hitting, fielding, pitching, ballpark effects, managerial decisions and random variation.

WildcatFan
08-20-2012, 04:35 PM
Just can't let their starting pitchers have easy innings. The Philadelphia bullpen is down there with the Cubs, Mets, Brewers, and Astros.

And this time, we have Wilson Valdez.

_Sir_Charles_
08-20-2012, 06:36 PM
Harrell 10-8 with 3.81 should win Cy Young award playing with Astros.

Love this line. :O)

Brutus
08-20-2012, 06:41 PM
Halladay has a 2.25 ERA in the last 28 days. When he faced the Cards, he was a bad, bad, bad dude. What ever struggles he had early, he's money right now.

Did you use 28 days because 29 days ago he gave up 6 runs in six innings?

klw
08-20-2012, 10:01 PM
Goals for series
1. do not be no hit
2. do not be swept
3. win series


goals for game 1
1. do not be no hit- check
2. score at least 5 runs check
3. do not give up 12 runs oops

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-20-2012, 11:44 PM
As poor as the Phillies record is this year, they're more the kind of team the Reds are going to face in the playoffs as opposed to the rif-raf they've been pounding the past month. There won't be any Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Mets or Padres in the post-season.

Color me slightly discouraged by tonight and the Reds' record vs. Philadelphia. It's like they get stage fright in Citizens Bank - from Heisey's boneheaded base running to Leake's batting practice pitches to the relentless doubles off of Phillies bats, tonight seemed like a complete overmatch. I know Mike Leake and Sam Lecure won't exactly be the ones to stare down the Ryan Howard-type hitters in October, but good god ... what a trip behind the woodshed and a reality check this was.

Win tomorrow and it'll be forgotten. Lose and ... yuck.

Tom Servo
08-20-2012, 11:49 PM
As poor as the Phillies record is this year, they're more the kind of team the Reds are going to face in the playoffs as opposed to the rif-raf they've been pounding the past month. There won't be any Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Mets or Padres in the post-season.

Color me slightly discouraged by tonight and the Reds' record vs. Philadelphia. It's like they get stage fright in Citizens Banks. I know Mike Leake and Sam Lecure won't exactly be the ones to stare down the Ryan Howards in October, but good god ... what a trip behind the woodshed and a reality check for this team.
While I think there's some merit to what you're saying, it's not like the Reds haven't beaten good teams. They've beaten the Yankees, the Braves, the Pirates, the Giants, and the Cardinals. Let's not act like one game in Philly so far is indicative of anything more than just that: one game.

mdccclxix
08-21-2012, 09:02 AM
Philly will relish the spoiler role this year. They're embarrassed about the result but also know it was all injury related. They're going to be tuning up the rest of the year and getting their new pieces acclimated as best they can. It's going to be a dogfight to get 2 of 3 from these guys. They've got chips on their shoulders about a wasted year where they all got another year older. All that combined with the fact that they realize they just torment the Reds. Just like the Reds torment the Brewers, as was said in the game thread. I guess you can't let it get in your head, just play your game and the results should pan out.

cumberlandreds
08-21-2012, 09:15 AM
I'm afraid the Reds are catching the Phils at a bad time. They are relatively healthy for the first time this season and seemed to be hitting well now. The Reds are going to need really good starting pitching the rest of this series to have a chance to win. With Bailey and Arroyo going the next two games I'm not too optimistic. Bailey's last 4 starts haven't been good at all and that ballpark just isn't suited for the type of pitching Arroyo delivers.

REDREAD
08-21-2012, 09:25 AM
Wow, that was a whipping last night.
I hope we can split the last 2 games...

cumberlandreds
08-21-2012, 09:27 AM
Wow, that was a whipping last night.
I hope we can split the last 2 games...

Three more games. This is a 4 game series.

CarolinaRedleg
08-21-2012, 04:12 PM
Personally, I'm just glad we play the Philadelphia Castellinis a maximum of seven times a year.

WebScorpion
08-22-2012, 01:59 AM
This team has had a 'no way we can beat Philly' vibe since 2010. They had several opportunities to succumb to that feeling again tonight, but they didn't give in. There was a definite air of confidence that no matter how many times Philly came back, the Reds would always top them. Hopefully, this will be the end of that Philly monkey on our backs...let's take 2 more!! :thumbup:

klw
08-22-2012, 08:55 AM
Goals for series
1. do not be no hit
2. do not be swept
3. win series


goals for game 1
1. do not be no hit- check
2. score at least 5 runs check
3. do not give up 12 runs oops

goals for game 2
1. do not be no hit- check
2. score at least 5 runs- check
3. do not give up 12 runs- Check
4. win- yeah!

traderumor
08-22-2012, 09:22 AM
This team has had a 'no way we can beat Philly' vibe since 2010. They had several opportunities to succumb to that feeling again tonight, but they didn't give in. There was a definite air of confidence that no matter how many times Philly came back, the Reds would always top them. Hopefully, this will be the end of that Philly monkey on our backs...let's take 2 more!! :thumbup:I'm glad the players got that vibe. I kept on teasing with my boys that there was absolutely no way the Reds win that game.

traderumor
08-22-2012, 10:02 AM
Halladay has a 2.25 ERA in the last 28 days. When he faced the Cards, he was a bad, bad, bad dude. What ever struggles he had early, he's money right now.So much for that. Reds must be better than the Cards.

Tom Servo
08-23-2012, 01:58 AM
I'm curious to see what Dusty's strategy is for tomorrow. Usually the end of a series means a day game and a 'Sunday/getaway day special', but in Philly it's a 7:05 start for the finale. By my count Rolen has started 6 games in the last 8 days, and I think we all get the impression BP has been pressing a bit and could use a day off. But one gets the impression with Cueto on the mound, Dusty would love to take the series from the Phillies.

11larkin11
08-23-2012, 02:12 AM
I'm curious to see what Dusty's strategy is for tomorrow. Usually the end of a series means a day game and a 'Sunday/getaway day special', but in Philly it's a 7:05 start for the finale. By my count Rolen has started 6 games in the last 8 days, and I think we all get the impression BP has been pressing a bit and could use a day off. But one gets the impression with Cueto on the mound, Dusty would love to take the series from the Phillies.

It seems lately Dusty trusts Johnny enough that he usually gets the Sunday Special lineup behind him. And as we all know, our Sunday Special lineups usually produce more than our regular lineup does.

PuffyPig
08-23-2012, 07:02 AM
It seems lately Dusty trusts Johnny enough that he usually gets the Sunday Special lineup behind him. And as we all know, our Sunday Special lineups usually produce more than our regular lineup does.

The "Sunday special" is based on our older players getting the day off after a night game.

Rolen and Ludwick generally sit on a day game after a night game.

It wouldn't surpise me if Rolen sits to rest for the Cards series coming up.

Bruce and Ludwick have both hit Hamels fairly well. So has Cairo in limited AB's so he's likley in.

Phillips has hit him extremely poorly.

I'm guessing Heisey in for Stubbs in CF, Frazier at 3B, Cairo at 1B, and perhaps Valdez in for Philips.

hebroncougar
08-23-2012, 08:07 AM
The "Sunday special" is based on our older players getting the day off after a night game.

Rolen and Ludwick generally sit on a day game after a night game.

It wouldn't surpise me if Rolen sits to rest for the Cards series coming up.

Bruce and Ludwick have both hit Hamels fairly well. So has Cairo in limited AB's so he's likley in.

Phillips has hit him extremely poorly.

I'm guessing Heisey in for Stubbs in CF, Frazier at 3B, Cairo at 1B, and perhaps Valdez in for Philips.

I'm guessing Heisey in right, and Valdez at 3b. I'm also guessing a DL stint for Cairo in the next few days, and a Hamilton call up.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

Kc61
08-23-2012, 10:22 AM
The only thing I care about for tonight's game is that Aroldis Chapman rests. He's worked five of six days. Enough.

I wouldn't use him tonight under any circumstances.

Brutus
08-23-2012, 12:10 PM
The only thing I care about for tonight's game is that Aroldis Chapman rests. He's worked five of six days. Enough.

I wouldn't use him tonight under any circumstances.

I'd use him if he's needed and not think twice about it. It's getting to the point in the season now where you secure wins when you can. He's shown he can pitch three days in a row, so I do it if necessary.

That said, if Cueto is able to give 7 strong, Marshall and Broxton might be able to get the job done without needing Chapman.

mth123
08-23-2012, 08:25 PM
I'd use him if he's needed and not think twice about it. It's getting to the point in the season now where you secure wins when you can. He's shown he can pitch three days in a row, so I do it if necessary.

That said, if Cueto is able to give 7 strong, Marshall and Broxton might be able to get the job done without needing Chapman.

The Reds have an 8 game lead. "Securing wins when you can" this time of year is for a close race. Keeping Aroldis rolling is more important. He was shakey last night with some hard hit balls.

Actually, if the penant race is your primary concern (shouldn't be with an 8 game lead), then having Chapman rested and ready for the Cardinals is the right play anyway.

I wouldn't even let him come to the park just to avoid any temptation.

Brutus
08-23-2012, 08:29 PM
The Reds have an 8 game lead. "Securing wins when you can" this time of year is for a close race. Keeping Aroldis rolling is more important. He was shakey last night with some hard hit balls.

Actually, if the penant race is your primary concern (shouldn't be with an 8 game lead), then having Chapman rested and ready for the Cardinals is the right play anyway.

I wouldn't even let him come to the park just to avoid any temptation.

Until the division is clinched, you treat it like it's not.

mth123
08-23-2012, 10:24 PM
Until the division is clinched, you treat it like it's not.

Depleting your forces winning a minor battle is the quickest way to lose the war.

Brutus
08-23-2012, 10:28 PM
Depleting your forces winning a minor battle is the quickest way to lose the war.

It's not like Chapman has never pitched three days in a row before or is incapable of it.

If the Reds clinch the division early enough, he'll have a lot of time to rest up before the playoffs. No reason to make any assumptions until then.

He was popping 102 last night to end the game. That's showing no signs of depletion.

mth123
08-23-2012, 10:45 PM
It's not like Chapman has never pitched three days in a row before or is incapable of it.

If the Reds clinch the division early enough, he'll have a lot of time to rest up before the playoffs. No reason to make any assumptions until then.

He was popping 102 last night to end the game. That's showing no signs of depletion.

Nope. Its like he just pitched 3 games in a row. Then took one off and pitched 2 more.

3 with the second place team starting tomorrow.If he has to pitch 3 in a row with an 8 game lead, I'd make it those three.

Brutus
08-23-2012, 10:47 PM
Nope. Its like he just pitched 3 games in a row. Then took one off and pitched 2 more.

3 with the second place team starting tomorrow.If he has to pitch 3 in a row with an 8 game lead, I'd make it those three.

You can't guarantee he's going to get opportunities in those three. If you have an opportunity in this given game, you have to seize it. You never know if he'll even be needed in the next game.

fearofpopvol1
08-24-2012, 04:16 AM
It's a shame the Reds didn't pull out the last game, seeing as they went up 3-1 against Hamels, but it's hard to be to upset with a split. Hoover also looked good in some tough spots.

I know it's getting late in the season and players need rest, but I'd really like to see Dusty not resting Phillips and Rolen on the same days. Starting both Valdez and Cairo is no bueno and really unnecessary IMO.

PuffyPig
08-24-2012, 07:14 AM
It's not like Chapman has never pitched three days in a row before or is incapable of it.



The problem wasn't that he had already pitched twice in a row, but had pitched 5 of 6 games.

Having him pitch 6 of 7 games going into the Cards series wouldn't be wise..

Chip R
08-24-2012, 09:03 AM
I'm just glad that last game didn't end up in some crazy 19 inning game like what happened with StL and PIT Sunday.

REDREAD
08-24-2012, 09:38 AM
Three more games. This is a 4 game series.

Oops, I forgot that.. At least we split the 4. I'm happy.

Last night.. just wasn't our night.. I just had the feeling the defense eventually wouldn't be able to bail out the pen.. oh well, not bad to get the split.

Raisor
08-24-2012, 10:44 AM
Time to step on the Cardinals' necks and make them beg for mercy.

That won't help them though.

Strike first strike hard no mercy sir!

I want to eat their children.

George Anderson
08-24-2012, 11:44 AM
Time to step on the Cardinals' necks and make them beg for mercy.

That won't help them though.

Strike first strike hard no mercy sir!

I want to eat their children.

I think of all the things Chris needs to explain to this son, this will be the hardest.

"Uh son, a reds fan is wanting to eat you"