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Vottomatic
08-20-2012, 04:08 PM
Stretch run math

The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining.
The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games
The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games
What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds?

If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64):
Pirates must go 31-10 to tie
Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie

If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68):
Pirates must go 27-14 to tie
Cards must go 29-12 to tie

If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73):
Pirates must go 22-19 to tie
Cards must go 24-17 to tie

Kc61
08-20-2012, 04:24 PM
Stretch run math

The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining.
The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games
The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games
What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds?

If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64):
Pirates must go 31-10 to tie
Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie

If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68):
Pirates must go 27-14 to tie
Cards must go 29-12 to tie

If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73):
Pirates must go 22-19 to tie
Cards must go 24-17 to tie

Nice breakdown.

On the Bucs, here are the questions.

1- How will they do in their 23 "easy" games? 13 against Astros and Cubs. 6 against Brewers at Pitt. (Brewers bad on road.) Four against Mets late in September.

2- How will they do in their 12 more "difficult" non-Reds games? Three each with Cards (in Pitt), Brewers (in Mil.), Padres (at SD), Braves (to end season).

3- How will they do in six head to head with Reds?

One could argue whether the Pads and Mets are easier series or more difficult. I put the Pads as more difficult because of the circumstances now. I put the Mets as easy because their season will be long over when the games happen.

Reds Fanatic
08-20-2012, 04:25 PM
Looking at the remaining schedules of the 3 teams the Cardinals appear to have the toughest schedule remaining.

They not only play the Reds 6 more times and Pirates 3 more times they still have 7 games left against the Nationals and a west coast road trip in mid September including 4 games in LA.

The Reds have the next toughest schedule left. 6 games left against both the Cardinals and Pirates. Also 3 games against the Dodgers at home and 3 games left against Arizona who is still in the wild card race and 7 against the Phillies starting tonight.

The Pirates appear to have the easiest remaining schedule as they still play the Cubs 7 times and the Astros 6 times. The Pirates still have 6 games left against the Reds, 3 games against the Cardinals and finish with 3 games against the Braves

cincrazy
08-20-2012, 04:40 PM
The Mets aren't a good team, but depending on who they're pitching in that series, it could be a tough one. I don't care how good you are, facing Dickey, Niese and Harvey in the same series would be one hell of a challenge. The Pirates certainly have an easy slate. But we ARE 6.5 games up, and have given ourselves a huge advantage by building this lead... mostly without Joey Votto.

WildcatFan
08-20-2012, 04:43 PM
I'm just glad the Reds don't have to play the Reds. With Votto on his way back, I would have no interest in stepping in front of this freight train.

Kc61
08-20-2012, 04:44 PM
The Mets aren't a good team, but depending on who they're pitching in that series, it could be a tough one. I don't care how good you are, facing Dickey, Niese and Harvey in the same series would be one hell of a challenge. The Pirates certainly have an easy slate. But we ARE 6.5 games up, and have given ourselves a huge advantage by building this lead... mostly without Joey Votto.

Yes, there are variables by pitchers, etc. On the other hand, Mets could play a AAA squad for that series, it's very late in September. They could shut down guys with slight injuries. Hard to tell, which is why I hedged as to how to classify it.

Right now, though, I'm hoping our old friend Volquez helps the Reds out tonight. Pirates could be in pitching disarray after yesterday. And Pads recently gave Bucs a tough time in Pitt.

Would like to see Pads take two of three over the Bucs, taking advantage of home field and the Pirates overhang from the nineteen inning game.

jhu1321
08-20-2012, 05:21 PM
I'm just glad the Reds don't have to play the Reds. With Votto on his way back, I would have no interest in stepping in front of this freight train.

YES! :beerme:

Big Klu
08-20-2012, 05:57 PM
Nice breakdown.

On the Bucs, here are the questions.

1- How will they do in their 23 "easy" games? 13 against Astros and Cubs. 6 against Brewers at Pitt. (Brewers bad on road.) Four against Mets late in September.

2- How will they do in their 12 more "difficult" non-Reds games? Three each with Cards (in Pitt), Brewers (in Mil.), Padres (at SD), Braves (to end season).

3- How will they do in six head to head with Reds?

One could argue whether the Pads and Mets are easier series or more difficult. I put the Pads as more difficult because of the circumstances now. I put the Mets as easy because their season will be long over when the games happen.

I was assured by RedsZone that the Pirates are a non-factor.

I'm holding RZ to that.

Homer Bailey
08-20-2012, 06:13 PM
I was assured by RedsZone that the Pirates are a non-factor.

I'm holding RZ to that.

If the Cards were 2 games back of the Reds, would anyone even really be considering the Pirates? It's the fact that their the closest of any team that makes them seem threatening, but in reality, they are pretty darn far back, and not playing great baseball. Obviously the division race isn't over, but the Reds are in a great, great position.

_Sir_Charles_
08-20-2012, 06:23 PM
Stretch run math

The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining.
The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games
The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games
What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds?

If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64):
Pirates must go 31-10 to tie
Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie

If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68):
Pirates must go 27-14 to tie
Cards must go 29-12 to tie

If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73):
Pirates must go 22-19 to tie
Cards must go 24-17 to tie

How does the math look if the Reds go 40-0 the rest of the way? :O)