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View Full Version : What is the Reds "Showgirl" number?



Brisco
08-20-2012, 05:23 PM
During the film "Major League" the manager tells the team that they need to win a certain number of games to win the division and with each win they peel off part of the clothing of the team owner, who used to be a Vegas showgirl. Sure enough, they win exactly that number of games and finish in a tie for first.

I always wondered how they got to that number, since it also depends on how the other teams are playing, but let's just say it was their best guess. Given that scenario, the Reds are 74-48 with 40 games remaining and they have a 6.5 lead on the Pirates and 8.5 lead on the Cards. What is our Vegas showgirl number? In other words, how many more games must we win in order to be reasonably assured the division title? I am not looking for the mathematical certainty here.... that the magic number. (and that's 35 and 33 right now), but what is our showgirl number where reason says the division is probably ours.

I think that number is 20. 20 more wins and we have the division. We will finish 94-68. To tie that record, the Pirates would have to go 27-14 and the Cards need to go 29-12. I don't see either as probable or even a reasonable forseeability. To put that in perspective, the best record in baseball is the nationals who have a .620 win percentage. To catch a Reds team with 94 wins, the Priates would need to play .658 ball the rest of the year and the Cards would need to play .707 ball. Possible? yes. Probable? I would very comfortably bet against that.

Ok, my number is 20... whats yours?

Larkin88
08-20-2012, 05:39 PM
During the film "Major League" the manager tells the team that they need to win a certain number of games to win the division and with each win they peel off part of the clothing of the team owner, who used to be a Vegas showgirl. Sure enough, they win exactly that number of games and finish in a tie for first.

I always wondered how they got to that number, since it also depends on how the other teams are playing, but let's just say it was their best guess. Given that scenario, the Reds are 74-48 with 40 games remaining and they have a 6.5 lead on the Pirates and 8.5 lead on the Cards. What is our Vegas showgirl number? In other words, how many more games must we win in order to be reasonably assured the division title? I am not looking for the mathematical certainty here.... that the magic number. (and that's 35 and 33 right now), but what is our showgirl number where reason says the division is probably ours.

I think that number is 20. 20 more wins and we have the division. We will finish 94-68. To tie that record, the Pirates would have to go 27-14 and the Cards need to go 29-12. I don't see either as probable or even a reasonable forseeability. To put that in perspective, the best record in baseball is the nationals who have a .620 win percentage. To catch a Reds team with 94 wins, the Priates would need to play .658 ball the rest of the year and the Cards would need to play .707 ball. Possible? yes. Probable? I would very comfortably bet against that.

Ok, my number is 20... whats yours?

So this is a subjective number that is NOT the often referred to "magic number" (which currently sits at 35 and is calculated thusly (http://baseball.about.com/od/termstatglossar1/a/magicnumber.htm))?

In terms of straight wins, anything around 20 oughta do it, I agree. At least in putting it out of reach for certain. It may even take fewer. As for me, though? I want that home field, baby.

WDE
08-20-2012, 11:29 PM
I voted more than 23. I really am expecting for the Pirates and Cards to get hot come September.

texasdave
08-20-2012, 11:32 PM
I voted more than 23 also. But that is just because I tend to be a worrier until things are actually clinched.

DaytonFlyer
08-21-2012, 05:25 PM
22. This is such a HAVE vs. HAVE NOT year in the NL. 96 wins and I will feel very safe. Other than that, I am not writing off Pittsburgh.

Considering we would just need to go something like 22-17 to make that happen, I think it is pretty do-able.