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Benihana
08-23-2012, 10:41 AM
Here is one of my favorite Reds exercises: Rank the Reds top assets in terms of trade value.

Here are the qualifiers:
A player has to be under 30 (no BP, Ludwick, Arroyo or Rolen)
Contract counts (both salary and years under control)

I think this is probably more difficult than I can ever remember it being, mainly because there is SO MUCH TALENT. I'll start with my top 15, more to come later:

1. Votto
2. Latos
3. Cueto
4. Chapman
5. Bruce
6. Frazier
7. Cozart
8. Mesoraco (he could be lower)
9. Hamilton
10. Stephenson
11. Leake
12. Corcino
13. Cingrani
14. Hanigan (he could be higher)
15. Bailey

It's absolutely insane to think that a 26 year old SP with a 4.11 ERA and plus stuff is only this organization's FIFTEENTH best asset. Insane. Earlier this decade, someone like that could've topped this list.

RedsManRick
08-23-2012, 10:50 AM
Great idea.

I have a really hard time after the top 5, but I'd put them:

1. Cueto
2. Chapman
3. Latos
4. Votto
5. Bruce

Cueto is signed for the next three years at 13:$7.4M, 14:$10M, 15:$10M.

Here are the major league ERA leaders since the beginning of 2011:

1. Cueto, 2.38
2. Verlander, 2.45
3. Weaver, 2.53
4. Kershaw, 2.53
5. Vogelsong, 2.77
6. Hamels, 2.86
7. Cain, 2.86
8. Zimmerman, 2.86
9. Halladay, 2.89
10. Lee, 2.95
11. Price, 2.97

Everybody knows my reservations about Cueto. But you put him on the trade market with his contact and look out. The cost certainty that comes with his contract makes him extremely valuable. It's the same reason I have Chapman over Latos.

And then I think there's a massive gap after Latos. With Votto's contract, the market for his services isn't all that big.

Benihana
08-23-2012, 10:58 AM
Great idea.

I have a really hard time after the top 5, but I'd put them:

1. Cueto
2. Chapman
3. Latos
4. Votto
5. Bruce

Cueto is signed for the next three years at 13:$7.4M, 14:$10M, 15:$10M.

Here are the major league ERA leaders since the beginning of 2011:

1. Cueto, 2.38
2. Verlander, 2.45
3. Weaver, 2.53
4. Kershaw, 2.53
5. Vogelsong, 2.77
6. Hamels, 2.86
7. Cain, 2.86
8. Zimmerman, 2.86
9. Halladay, 2.89
10. Lee, 2.95
11. Price, 2.97

Everybody knows my reservations about Cueto. But you put him on the trade market with his contact and look out. The cost certainty that comes with his contract makes him extremely valuable. It's the same reason I have Chapman over Latos.

And then I think there's a massive gap after Latos. With Votto's contract, the market for his services isn't all that big.

Agree on Cueto, there is a strong case for him to be #1 and you made it.

But I disagree on Votto: If the Reds can pay him $200MM+, I'd guess almost any organization in baseball could- certainly all the big market teams would be in an absolute frenzy to acquire him. FanGraphs puts him in the top 10 for trade value in the game even with his current contract. I know we haven't seen him play in six weeks, but the guy is arguably the best and most consistent hitter in the sport- and he's only 28.

An interesting argument could be made for Bruce vs. Frazier, which is pretty crazy considering Bruce has been the darling of the organization for the better part of the last decade. If at any point in the last five years (since Frazier joined the organization) you would have told me that those two are arguably interchangeable in terms of value, I would have laughed.

edabbs44
08-23-2012, 10:58 AM
I wonder if Votto should be much lower. The contract leaves only a small amount of suitors.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2012, 11:04 AM
Trade value is mostly determined by a player's value over what he is being paid. Votto is being paid almost to the dollar (over the life of the contract) of the value he is perceived to be, meaning he's paid pretty much at market value. Someone like Cueto is being paid far less than the market value, and would have more trade value because of it.

Fangraphs does an annual exercise where they rank the 50 guys with the most trade value in baseball. The market value reason is why they eliminate guys that have just signed new contracts at market value (such as Halladay, Lee, in recent years).

All that being said, this is a really difficult exercise, and I'm afraid to try to do it myself.

mace
08-23-2012, 11:27 AM
I'd have to think that Phillips would be on the list somewhere. He, of course, has the caveat of the new contract, like Votto, but while lucrative it's not outrageous and it is secure. He seems to be at the top of his game at 31, and he's under control through 2017. Not to mention, he's a legitimate Gold Glove fielder with a versatile bat. You'd think you'd surely get more for Phillips than you would for, say, Cingrani.

top6
08-23-2012, 11:44 AM
I think Votto is pretty close to untradeable already, which does make me worry about the future of this team.

Scrap Irony
08-23-2012, 12:45 PM
1. Johnny Cueto
Comment: Cheap and remarkably valuable. If he logs 200+ IP this year (and looks to be a lead pipe cinch), he's among the top ten starters in the game. At less than $15 million per season, that's huge value.
2. Joey Votto
Comment: Best player, but his large (and long) contract, limits his value. Still, he's among the best hitters in the game. Who wouldn't sell the farm for that? Could easily be number one right now or by the end of the season.
3. Mat Latos
Comment: He's 24 and has been as adverstised for three months of the season. He's only getting better and should be a true TOR stopper as early as.... well, now. Did I mention he makes less than Ryan Hanigan? Could easily vault to number one by the end of the season.
4. Aroldis Chapman
Comment: Weird contract. Phenomenal arm and a game-changer as either a starter or a reliever (IMO). Could easily vault to number one by the end of the season.
5. Jay Bruce
Comment: He's not what I hoped he'd be, nor will he ever be that .300/.375/.550 stud he seemed to be in the minor leagues. He's still a very, very good player. Cheap, young, and an All-Star? Yes, please.
6. Todd Frazier
Comment: The possible ROY at number six? Is this team really that deep? Indeed it is. Frazier provides what looks to be a plus bat at a variety of positions, one of which (3B) where plus bats tend to be rare.
7. Zack Cozart
Comment: See Frazier, Todd. Add value for position. Subtract value for stick. Love the defense.
8. Billy Hamilton
Comment: Could be a difference-maker and will be a draw at home and on the road. (Don't underestimate that in trade value.) If he hits his ceiling, no one in baseball would be more valuable as a leadoff hitter.
9. Homer Bailey
Comment: Young, maturing into at least a MOR starter, but getting slightly expensive. Would command $10 million or more on the open market. He's number nine (!) on the Red list.
10.Mike Leake
Comment: Homer-prone and his stuff doesn't play up as much as Bailey's, but he's cheaper right now and looks like an innings eater as he matures. His bat helps his value, too.
11.Robert Stephenson
Comment: TOR stuff and youth at low A makes him a possible Top 50 prospect. If he's in AA by the time his teens are over and still dominating, he could very well be number one on this list.
12.Tony Cingrani (T)
Comment: Has completely dominated minor league baseball since becoming a professional. Only questions about his consistency keep him below top ten. Would have been number one not too many year ago. Would have also already been in the major leagues.
12.Daniel Corcino (T)
Comment: More polished than Cingrani, but effort and wildness keep them, IMO, neck and neck. Another Cueto? Yes, please.
13.Ryan Hanigan
Comment: Underrated, though he'll never be great with the bat. Cheap contract and an above average player.
14.Devin Mesoraco
Comment: Hasn't hit, but the opportunity, some insist, hasn't been there. The jury is still out.
15.JJ Hoover
Comment: He's a back of the pen arm with plus stuff that plays up. Would already be a closer on a poorer team. As is, he can be stashed in AAA while learning the craft. Could also start and, IMO, be solidly average in that role.

indy_dave00
08-23-2012, 01:45 PM
How is Ryan Hanigan even on these list? One qualification was under 30 Ryan is already 32 years old.

kaldaniels
08-23-2012, 01:51 PM
Trade value is mostly determined by a player's value over what he is being paid. Votto is being paid almost to the dollar (over the life of the contract) of the value he is perceived to be, meaning he's paid pretty much at market value. Someone like Cueto is being paid far less than the market value, and would have more trade value because of it.

Fangraphs does an annual exercise where they rank the 50 guys with the most trade value in baseball. The market value reason is why they eliminate guys that have just signed new contracts at market value (such as Halladay, Lee, in recent years).

All that being said, this is a really difficult exercise, and I'm afraid to try to do it myself.

Votto was on their list this year after signing the market value deal. I don't think they "eliminate" anyone from their rankings...nor would I eliminate the over 30 year olds in our discussion here.

Patrick Bateman
08-23-2012, 01:58 PM
1. Cueto
2. Chapman
3. Latos
4. Bruce
5. Votto
6. Frazier
7. Mesoraco
8. Hamilton
9. Cozart
10. Leake
11. Stephenson
12. Corcino
13. Bailey
14. Stubbs
15. Cingrani

I have Mesoroco higher than everyone else because I don't put stock into his current year stats, and I don't think most teams would because he hasn't had huge playing time. Way more upside than Cozart, and Cozart isn't THAT good right now that he should be a cut above IMO. Both play premium positions.

Patrick Bateman
08-23-2012, 01:59 PM
Trade value is mostly determined by a player's value over what he is being paid. Votto is being paid almost to the dollar (over the life of the contract) of the value he is perceived to be, meaning he's paid pretty much at market value. Someone like Cueto is being paid far less than the market value, and would have more trade value because of it.

Fangraphs does an annual exercise where they rank the 50 guys with the most trade value in baseball. The market value reason is why they eliminate guys that have just signed new contracts at market value (such as Halladay, Lee, in recent years).

All that being said, this is a really difficult exercise, and I'm afraid to try to do it myself.

I think having a marquee player signed at market rates has big trade value. Only so may of them to go around, and few become available through a cheaper means.

Big market teams I think would pay a ton to get Votto.

kaldaniels
08-23-2012, 02:01 PM
I don't have time now to make the list, but Fraizer might have a chance at being higher than Bruce on mine, due to his 2013-14 yrs being 500k years.

smith288
08-23-2012, 02:16 PM
Here's mine:

1. Dioner Navarro
2. Kristopher Negron
3. Bill Bray

The rest is just chaff.

Benihana
08-23-2012, 05:18 PM
How is Ryan Hanigan even on these list? One qualification was under 30 Ryan is already 32 years old.

Good point. My bad.

REDREAD
08-23-2012, 05:53 PM
1. Cueto
2. Chapman
3. Latos
4. Bruce
5. Frazier
6. Hamilton
7. Cozart
8. Votto
9. Leake
10. Bailey
11. Mesoraco
12. Stephenson
13. Corcino
14. Cingrani

I think Homer and Leake are worth more than any prospect we have, other than Billy Hamilton.. I don't necessarily think that Hamilton is a lock to be a superstar, but in terms of raw trade value, he could probably be the centerpiece for just about any acquision.. I may have him ranked too low.

I think most teams would rather have Leake/Homer than Mes, at this point, since the pitchers are producing. Mes has good pedigree, but is still a question mark. (I think he will come around though).

I really don't think other teams are that jazzed about our minor league pitchers.. they'd rather have a sure thing in one of our young ML players.

Votto gets bumped down due to contract, although maybe I have overestimated that impact.

Chapman might be #1.. I really can't argue that.