PDA

View Full Version : 2013: Looking ahead



cinreds21
08-23-2012, 08:37 PM
You guys know I love to look ahead. Since the minor league season ends in two weeks I thought we could start looking into next year.

First off, fringe guys who will be out of options:
Todd Redmond
Jordan Smith
Chris Valaika

Players eligible for Rule V draft:
Daniel Corcino
Yorman Rodriguez
Nick Christiani
Juan Duran
Mark Fleury
Josh Fellhauer
Tim Crabbe
Mark Serrano
Ismael Guillon
Brian Pearl

Then upcoming Free Agents:

AAA
Carlos Fisher
Sean Gallagher
Tim Gustafson
Chad Reineke
Tanekoa Texeira
Travis Webb
Corky Miller
Brian Peacock
Mike Costanzo
Willie Harris

Double-A
Wilkin De La Rosa
Michael Griffin
Wirfin Obispo
Josh Ravin
Beau Mills
PJ Phillips
Miguel Rojas



I would not be surprised if Bray or Masset were non-tendered. If they come back and deal in September than maybe not, but I don't think they "need" them at what they would cost.

So, from there:

Louisville:
SP Pedro Villarreal
SP Daniel Corcino
SP Tony Cingrani
SP FA
SP FA

RP-Manno
RP-Freeman
RP-Hayes
RP-Christiani
RP-Josh Judy
RP-Andrew Brackman
RP- FA (LH?)
RP- FA

C-FA/Corky
1B-Soto
2B-Negron (will be ready for spring training)
3B-Rodriguez
SS-Didi
LF-LaMarre
CF-Phipps
RF-Perez

Bench
Fellhauer
Puckett
FA OF
FA C


I haven't followed Double-A or lower as much this year so I wouldn't feel confident predicting them as much so feel free to continue it. Go!

dougdirt
08-23-2012, 08:47 PM
Ismael Guillon is also eligible for the Rule 5.

cinreds21
08-23-2012, 08:58 PM
Thanks Doug. An intersting thing about Guillon:

His original contract with Cincinnati was voided due to an injury so:

"Because he signed a second contract with his original team, Guillon will be eligible for the Rule V draft every year until he's added to the 40-man roster."

mth123
08-23-2012, 11:12 PM
40 Man Spots that should come open

1. Rolen
2. Cairo
3. Navarro
4. Negron
5. Smith
6. Valaika

Potential Non-Tenders
1. Bill Bray
2. Wilson Valdez

40 Man Adds
1. Masset
2. Corcino
3. Y-Rod
4. Duran
5. Christiani

Plenty of room on the 40 man.

Kc61
08-24-2012, 12:37 AM
Pretty sure Massett signed a two year contract. He's signed for next year. Not a non-tender candidate.

mth123
08-24-2012, 12:49 AM
Pretty sure Massett signed a two year contract. He's signed for next year. Not a non-tender candidate.

Correct.

camisadelgolf
08-24-2012, 12:59 AM
Free agent/non-tendered/declined option/out of options:
Luis Atilano
Drew Brackman
(?)Bill Bray
Jonathan Broxton
Miguel Cairo
Mike Costanzo
Wilkin De La Rosa
James Ewing
Carlos Fisher
Sean Gallagher
Mike Griffin
Tim Gustafson
Willie Harris
Josh Judy
(?)Ryan Ludwick
Ryan Madson
Corky Miller
Dioner Navarro
Wirfin Obispo
Will Ohman
Brian Peacock
P.J. Phillips
Josh Ravin
Todd Redmond
Chad Reineke
Miguel Rojas
Scott Rolen
Jordan Smith
Kanekoa Texeira
Chris Valaika
(?)Wilson Valdez
Niko Vasquez
Travis Webb

Eligible for the rule 5 draft:
Jesus Adames
Junior Arias
Theo Bowe
Nick Christiani
Carlos Contreras
Dan Corcino
Jonathan Correa
Tim Crabbe
Juan Duran
Wilfrel Estevez
Josh Fellhauer
Mark Fleury
Justin Freeman
Stalin Gerson
Yovan Gonzalez
Ismael Guillon
Blaine Howell
Travis Mattair
Andrew Means
Beau Mills
Curt Partch
Brian Pearl
Cody Puckett
Radhames Quezada
Yorman Rodriguez
Mark Serrano
Jefry Sierra
Danny Vicioso
Jamie Walczak

JaxRed
08-24-2012, 04:00 AM
I'd be very surprised if Christiani was added to 40 man roster

klw
08-24-2012, 08:35 AM
As much potential as they have, I don't know that I see anyone being able to stash Y-rod or Duran on their 25 man roster for long enough to keep them. (Unless Houston is going for 130 losses next year)

RedsManRick
08-24-2012, 11:24 AM
So who are the guys who are legit options to be lost due to Rule V?

(e.g. we all know Corcino will be protected and Guillon, Duran and YRod are too far off to be drafted and held on to for a whole season)

A few guys that seem like possibilities to me:
- Serrano
- Fellhauer
- Puckett
- Mills (not a minor league FA?)

Benihana
08-24-2012, 12:56 PM
So who are the guys who are legit options to be lost due to Rule V?

(e.g. we all know Corcino will be protected and Guillon, Duran and YRod are too far off to be drafted and held on to for a whole season)

A few guys that seem like possibilities to me:
- Serrano
- Fellhauer
- Puckett
- Mills (not a minor league FA?)

Maybe Brian Pearl? Despite his 7 ERA in AA.

I won't do lineups for now but here is my best guess of the moment as how the top of the minor league rotations could look next year:

Louisville
1. Corcino
2. Cingrani
3. Redmond
4. Villareal
5. Obispo

Pensacola
1. Lotzkar
2. Rogers
3. J.Smith
4. ?
5. ?

Bakersfield
1. Stephenson
2. J.Johnson
3. Quezada
4. Gerson
5. Allen

Dayton
1. Langfield (could also jump to A+ especially if Travieso and/or Garrett start in Dayton)
2. Guillon
3. Cisco
4. Moscot

Billings
1. Travieso? (could be in Dayton)
2. Garrett? (could be in Dayton)
3. P.Diaz
4. Felt

Kc61
08-24-2012, 01:28 PM
So who are the guys who are legit options to be lost due to Rule V?

(e.g. we all know Corcino will be protected and Guillon, Duran and YRod are too far off to be drafted and held on to for a whole season)

A few guys that seem like possibilities to me:
- Serrano
- Fellhauer
- Puckett
- Mills (not a minor league FA?)

Would hate to lose Fellhauer. Looks like a good lefty BA hitter who could make the Reds in 2014 as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Type of bat the Reds could use.

FWIW, next season will be the year of Corcino and Cingrani. Can see spots opening up in Reds rotation by 2014 the latest. These two will be at AAA and will have an opportunity to become Reds starters depending on how they do.

cinreds21
08-24-2012, 01:38 PM
Even though Yorman is so far off, I really don't see them leaving him off. Teams rarely do that to a "top" prospect.

To be honest, I think it'll be:
Corcino
Yorman
Christiani
Fellhauer
and the two maybes are Guillon and Pearl.

19braves77
08-24-2012, 02:04 PM
Pensacola turn over should be high.

dougdirt
08-24-2012, 02:27 PM
Even though Yorman is so far off, I really don't see them leaving him off. Teams rarely do that to a "top" prospect.

To be honest, I think it'll be:
Corcino
Yorman
Christiani
Fellhauer
and the two maybes are Guillon and Pearl.

I would be surprised if they protected Christiani. 26 walks and 30 strikeouts in 65 innings simply doesn't do it for me. The ERA is good, but it is smoke and mirrors. I don't see them protecting Pearl either. If they can bring back Obispo and or Ravin, I could see both being protected. Both have strong arms and can hit 96 (or in Ravin's case, 99).

Benihana
08-24-2012, 03:26 PM
Similar to my earlier rotation projections, here is my best guess at the top 4 positional prospects at each projected 2013 starting level:

Louisville
1. Hamilton SS/CF
2. Gregorius SS
3. H.Rodriguez 3B/2B (although I actually believe he has a good shot to make Cincy's OD roster)
4. LaMarre CF

Pensacola
1. Lutz LF
2. Vidal 3B
3. Barnhart C
4. Wright 2B

Bakersfield
1. Y.Rodriguez OF
2. Waldrop OF
3. Mejias-Brean 3B (could likely skip Dayton to make room for Rahier/Rosa)
4. J.Perez 2B

Dayton
1. Winker OF
2. Gelalich OF
3. Rahier/Rosa 3B (one will start in Billings, the other in Dayton)
4. Vincej SS

Hillsdale87
08-24-2012, 04:03 PM
Why push Rahier or Rosa to Dayton when they've been struggling mightily against lesser competition? I don't see how they've proven ready for a jump

camisadelgolf
08-24-2012, 04:46 PM
So who are the guys who are legit options to be lost due to Rule V?

(e.g. we all know Corcino will be protected and Guillon, Duran and YRod are too far off to be drafted and held on to for a whole season)

A few guys that seem like possibilities to me:
- Serrano
- Fellhauer
- Puckett
- Mills (not a minor league FA?)
Mills isn't eligible because he doesn't have six full years of service time. Also, he was obtained in a trade--not on a 1-year free agent contract.

Here are the top-15 options with Dan Corcino being the only guarantee.
Theo Bowe
Nick Christiani
Carlos Contreras
Dan Corcino
Jonathan Correa
Tim Crabbe
Juan Duran
Josh Fellhauer
Justin Freeman
Ismael Guillon
Blaine Howell
Brian Pearl
Cody Puckett
Yorman Rodriguez
Mark Serrano

mace
08-24-2012, 05:49 PM
Here are the top-15 options with Dan Corcino being the only guarantee.
Theo Bowe
Nick Christiani
Carlos Contreras
Dan Corcino
Jonathan Correa
Tim Crabbe
Juan Duran
Josh Fellhauer
Justin Freeman
Ismael Guillon
Blaine Howell
Brian Pearl
Cody Puckett
Yorman Rodriguez
Mark Serrano

With the performance that Guillon has put up over the past month or so, in conjunction with the talent that has been ascribed to him all along, I'd be leery of exposing him. I might consider him more at risk than Yorman.

Blaine Howell is another who gives me pause. Lefty who's had some success. This year has been uneven for him, but that could conceivably be written off to injuries and Bakersfield.

I really don't see Duran being in jeopardy if he's not protected. I guess Bowe, Christiani and Puckett are worth considering for the 40-man, but certainly not at the expense of somebody who really needs a spot.

Of course, a scout might have an entirely different take.

Scrap Irony
08-24-2012, 06:54 PM
If Guillon's exposed and I'm Houston, he's my LOOGY for a year.

IMO, he's got to be protected.

bellhead
08-24-2012, 07:44 PM
Louisville
1. Corcino
2. Cingrani
3. Redmond
4. Villareal
5. Obispo

Pensacola
1. Lotzkar
2. Rogers
3. J.Smith

If Redmond doesn't come back who could you see at AAA Lotzkar or Rogers???

Also who do you guys seeing having the better pitching coach AAA or AA????

lollipopcurve
08-25-2012, 10:46 AM
With the performance that Guillon has put up over the past month or so, in conjunction with the talent that has been ascribed to him all along, I'd be leery of exposing him. I might consider him more at risk than Yorman.

Agreed. Both should be protected, IMO. You've got teams like Houston and the Cubs who are completely stripping down in favor of youth. Reds should be wary.

redsof72
08-25-2012, 04:28 PM
Likely some position changes to sort out in instructional league. As I said several times this season, half the team in Dayton was playing out of position. Some guys that you may have penciled in somewhere may be at a different position. If you look at the Dayton infield this year that was the most commonly-used lineup (including players no longer there), I would say that all four guys may be playing a different position next year.

Vottomatic
08-25-2012, 07:08 PM
I'd expose Yorman. A team would have to be nuts to take him and keep him on their roster all year. He's not ready.

camisadelgolf
08-25-2012, 07:15 PM
I'd expose Yorman. A team would have to be nuts to take him and keep him on their roster all year. He's not ready.
A team has to weigh the pros and cons. If they're okay with no production from a 25-man roster spot for one season, they wouldn't need any of these players to be ready for the majors full-time until 2017.

cinreds21
08-26-2012, 02:54 AM
Teams can be creative. The Pirates were when they took Donnie Veal from the Cubs a few years ago. They stashed him on the DL for most of the season. I don't think it's worth the risk. At worse he gets traded for a good player by next off-season at the lastest.

camisadelgolf
08-26-2012, 03:08 AM
In case anyone doesn't know, a player must be on the active roster for at least 90 days to satisfy the rule 5 requirements. If he isn't, then the time must carry over to the next season. So if your plan is to stash someone on the dl all year, he has to be active for about half a season before he can be optioned.

cinreds21
08-26-2012, 03:31 AM
I didn't mean all year, I'm just saying that it has been done before.

camisadelgolf
08-26-2012, 03:37 AM
I didn't mean all year, I'm just saying that it has been done before.
It's okay, d00d. No one said you meant that. :)

Brutus
08-26-2012, 05:39 AM
I'd expose Yorman. A team would have to be nuts to take him and keep him on their roster all year. He's not ready.

Keep in mind, too, that there are three phases of the Rule-5 Draft. Players not reserved are not only eligible for the Major League phase, but if a player isn't reserved at Triple-A, they are eligible for the Triple-A phase and if players aren't reserved above Single-A, they're also eligible for the Double-A phase.

mth123
08-26-2012, 08:18 AM
In case anyone doesn't know, a player must be on the active roster for at least 90 days to satisfy the rule 5 requirements. If he isn't, then the time must carry over to the next season. So if your plan is to stash someone on the dl all year, he has to be active for about half a season before he can be optioned.

As long as you don't need the 40 man roster spot for somebody else, its not hard to sneak him by. Stash him on the DL to open the year, send him to extended spring for a month or so, give him month on rehab at the appropriate level, activate him for a while to play defense and pinch run late in games, back to the DL, more rehab, a couple more weeks active, and repeat the process until you add him when rosters expand in September. Send him to winter ball to get the ABs he missed during the season and repeat the process next year. With a kid as young as Yorman, he'd be 22 and still have all his options after a couple of seasons accumulating his 90 days. Even if he'd need to go back to High A in 2015 (or more likely mid 2014 when his 90 days are up) with all his options, he could still be a pretty decent player by age 24 or 25. If I was the Astros, I'd absolutely take him unless some other team left somebody even better available. It's even easier for an AL team (the Astros next season) that has no need to PH for the pitcher or double switch. The 25th men are much less important in the AL and many times are defensive replacements and pinch runners anyway.

This can work with a kid this young. You wouldn't try it with a 25 year old in high A, but it would be a no brainer with a guy like Yorman IMO.

camisadelgolf
08-26-2012, 08:27 AM
The Reds tend to go with the 'better safe than sorry' method when it comes to protecting players. They protected Juan Francisco after despite not playing above A+, and he had a .303 OBP and .799 OPS that season (combined with terrible defense). They protected Donald Lutz despite never playing above A. They gave Kris Negron a roster spot. So and so forth. I think there's a very good chance the Reds protect Yorman Rodriguez, especially considering all the roster room they're going to have.

Steve4192
08-26-2012, 08:32 AM
The Reds tend to go with the 'better safe than sorry' method when it comes to protecting players. They protected Juan Francisco after despite not playing above A+, and he had a .303 OBP and .799 OPS that season (combined with terrible defense). They protected Donald Lutz despite never playing above A. They gave Kris Negron a roster spot. So and so forth. I think there's a very good chance the Reds protect Yorman Rodriguez, especially considering all the roster room they're going to have.

Agreed.

They also have a big investment in Rodriguez, and teams tend to be extra careful when bonus babies are involved. IMO he is a lock for the 40 man roster. They don't want to see that seven-figure bonus they paid him get flushed down the crapper.

Degenerate39
08-26-2012, 08:46 AM
Any chance we'll see Duran or Yorman in the bigs any time soon?

mth123
08-26-2012, 09:20 AM
Any chance we'll see Duran or Yorman in the bigs any time soon?

Not unless they get drafted in Rule 5. I'd say 2014 at the earliest for either. Duran may need to make a move to 1B.

19braves77
08-26-2012, 01:31 PM
My wish list for 2013 Wahoos coaching staff:

Manager: Delino Deshields
HC: Eli Marreo
PC : Ted Power

camisadelgolf
08-26-2012, 01:46 PM
There's a pretty good chance Riggleman could be managing the Astros next year.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:03 PM
There's a pretty good chance Riggleman could be managing the Astros next year.

But how will he double switch if they are in the AL?:laugh:

19braves77
08-26-2012, 03:16 PM
Houston would be the perfect place for Riggleman. Expectations would be low and no games vs the Nationals.

My point view on his time in Pensacola is that it took him about 2 months to adjust to being a Minor League manager again.

Tony Cloninger
08-26-2012, 10:25 PM
As much potential as they have, I don't know that I see anyone being able to stash Y-rod or Duran on their 25 man roster for long enough to keep them. (Unless Houston is going for 130 losses next year)


I thought that in 1983 too....until Danny Tartabull was taken by The Mariners off the Reds hands in the Rule 5 draft.

camisadelgolf
08-26-2012, 10:47 PM
I thought that in 1983 too....until Danny Tartabull was taken by The Mariners off the Reds hands in the Rule 5 draft.
That wasn't the rule five draft; it was the short-lived free agent compensation draft. It was a terrible concept that came into play as a result of a compromise from the 1981 strike.

Tony Cloninger
08-27-2012, 09:08 AM
That wasn't the rule five draft; it was the short-lived free agent compensation draft. It was a terrible concept that came into play as a result of a compromise from the 1981 strike.

OK. I forgot about that thing. That 1981 strike just kept on giving for the Reds.

OGB
08-28-2012, 06:30 AM
As long as you don't need the 40 man roster spot for somebody else, its not hard to sneak him by. Stash him on the DL to open the year, send him to extended spring for a month or so, give him month on rehab at the appropriate level, activate him for a while to play defense and pinch run late in games, back to the DL, more rehab, a couple more weeks active, and repeat the process until you add him when rosters expand in September. Send him to winter ball to get the ABs he missed during the season and repeat the process next year. With a kid as young as Yorman, he'd be 22 and still have all his options after a couple of seasons accumulating his 90 days. Even if he'd need to go back to High A in 2015 (or more likely mid 2014 when his 90 days are up) with all his options, he could still be a pretty decent player by age 24 or 25. If I was the Astros, I'd absolutely take him unless some other team left somebody even better available. It's even easier for an AL team (the Astros next season) that has no need to PH for the pitcher or double switch. The 25th men are much less important in the AL and many times are defensive replacements and pinch runners anyway.

This can work with a kid this young. You wouldn't try it with a 25 year old in high A, but it would be a no brainer with a guy like Yorman IMO.
I totally follow the logic here, but I'm just curious if anyone is aware of any precedent for this. I would think, at best, that Duran or Yorman are three full years aaway from being major league ready.

JaxRed
08-28-2012, 08:47 AM
I think the process as mth123 described it would not work. Bottom line is he has to be on active roster 90 days. Or roughly half the season. Sure, one of the months (Sep) is easier.

But even with that easy month than he has to be on 2 months of the other 5.

mth123
08-28-2012, 07:38 PM
I think the process as mth123 described it would not work. Bottom line is he has to be on active roster 90 days. Or roughly half the season. Sure, one of the months (Sep) is easier.

But even with that easy month than he has to be on 2 months of the other 5.

So finish the following season. Once his 90 days are up, I believe he can be sent down.

cinreds21
11-05-2012, 01:09 PM
Right-handed pitcher Wirfin Obispo has signed with the Atlanta Braves.

dougdirt
11-05-2012, 02:57 PM
Right-handed pitcher Wirfin Obispo has signed with the Atlanta Braves.

Disappointing, but I can understand why he would want out of ours. There isn't a ton of room to move up for him to the Majors here with a slew of guys ahead of him.

cjtenn28
11-06-2012, 09:08 AM
•The Braves have signed Wirfin Obispo to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The 28-year-old right-hander pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 96 innings between the Reds' Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#v51da4jdpmEffF99.99


I hate to see them let him walk. Could develop into something for the Braves.

coachrond
11-06-2012, 09:20 PM
Maybe Brian Pearl? Despite his 7 ERA in AA.

I won't do lineups for now but here is my best guess of the moment as how the top of the minor league rotations could look next year:

Louisville
1. Corcino
2. Cingrani
3. Redmond
4. Villareal
5. Obispo

Pensacola
1. Lotzkar
2. Rogers
3. J.Smith
4. ?
5. ?

Bakersfield
1. Stephenson
2. J.Johnson
3. Quezada
4. Gerson
5. Allen

Dayton
1. Langfield (could also jump to A+ especially if Travieso and/or Garrett start in Dayton)
2. Guillon
3. Cisco
4. Moscot

Billings
1. Travieso? (could be in Dayton)
2. Garrett? (could be in Dayton)
3. P.Diaz
4. Felt

HokieRed
11-06-2012, 09:57 PM
What's the option situation with Redmond?

cinreds21
11-06-2012, 10:42 PM
What's the option situation with Redmond?

He is currently on the 40-man roster, but will be out of options come March.

camisadelgolf
11-06-2012, 11:53 PM
He is currently on the 40-man roster, but will be out of options come March.
Unless he makes the team out of spring training. ;)

*BaseClogger*
11-07-2012, 09:20 AM
Any chance Stephenson starts in Dayton? I still want a chance to see him pitch...

Mario-Rijo
11-21-2012, 04:32 AM
So who are the guys who are legit options to be lost due to Rule V?

(e.g. we all know Corcino will be protected and Guillon, Duran and YRod are too far off to be drafted and held on to for a whole season)

A few guys that seem like possibilities to me:
- Serrano
- Fellhauer
- Puckett
- Mills (not a minor league FA?)

Serrano & Puckett sounds about right.


Sent from my MB865 using Tapatalk 2

camisadelgolf
11-21-2012, 07:14 AM
Puckett was eligible after 2011 and wasn't drafted. Granted, it was at a higher level, but seeing as how his 2012 was worse than his 2011, I really doubt he gets drafted. His defensive limitations don't really make him much of an appealing pick either.

cinreds21
01-02-2013, 11:11 PM
The Rockies have signed former Reds minor league pitcher Tim Gustafson.