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Phhhl
08-26-2012, 01:17 AM
It is debatable how important Sunday's game is against the Cardinals. Saturday's ballgame was mandatory in that the Reds could not afford to have St. Louis sweep this series and give them reason to believe that they could take the Central. But, for Homer Bailey, beating Wainright in a game that would essentially cripple the Cardinals' chances of catching us would be the seminal moment in his young career. At least, I would have to think so...

There are a couple of things that I like about the matchup. First, after a string of bad starts, Homer was excellent in his last start against the Phillies. It almost seems he got a second wind, and his stuff was so good that night that he did not seem to be laboring physically from all the logged innings at all.

Second, while Wainright has really started to string together a series of good starts to prove he is recovered from TJ surgery, you have to wonder how much of a toll the workload may have on him at this point. All one has to do is look at how Johann Santanna self-destructed after his no-hitter, or to how poor AJ Burnett has been since shutting down the Reds a couple of weeks ago, to understand how much of a ripple effect these complete game efforts can have on a starting pitcher in today's game. It would not surprise me at all if we will not get the superlative version of Wainright on Sunday.

But, even if we do, I am most excited about what Homer might do. This is his time to shine, if he is ever going to. A win on Sunday may not determine the Reds' fate for the remainder of the season, but it could go a LONG way to determine the Reds' pitching options in the postseason. Personally, I can't wait to see what Bailey brings to the party Sunday.

vic715
08-26-2012, 02:10 AM
I believe Homer is capable of getting it done but my biggest fear is Dusty putting Valdez and Cairo in the lineup against Wainright today.

Phhhl
08-26-2012, 02:27 AM
That is a legitimate concern. Dusty seems to have a schedule for his lineups that is oblivious to the importance of the games, and that drives a lot of us crazy. Logically, you would think he would be able to manage off days for certain guys better, and make better in-game decisions. But, at the same time, I do believe that people underestimate his psychological influence on this ballclub. I am as big a critic of Dusty as anybody, but I have also come to realize that these guys would run through a brick wall for him. Contrast that with Boston Red Sox players, who would prefer to bludgeon their manager's brains against a brick wall...

I believe that the Reds will win today even if Cairo and Valdez are playing, so long as Homer realizes his destiny.

hebroncougar
08-26-2012, 08:05 AM
I believe Homer is capable of getting it done but my biggest fear is Dusty putting Valdez and Cairo in the lineup against Wainright today.

I'm afraid of that exact thing. And you can get Freese and Molina will be playing today.

traderumor
08-26-2012, 08:20 AM
Homer already had a defining moment. He did his job against the Phillies the night after they pounded our staff. That was a very important positive performance for him.

Today's game is gravy, we only needed one in this series. In the big picture, if we're going to lose a 6 game lead in the last month, we're probably going to lose an 8 game lead as well.

Of course, I always hate losing to the smug Birds. Maybe Wainwright won't have his stuff today.

mth123
08-26-2012, 09:25 AM
That is a legitimate concern. Dusty seems to have a schedule for his lineups that is oblivious to the importance of the games, and that drives a lot of us crazy. Logically, you would think he would be able to manage off days for certain guys better, and make better in-game decisions. But, at the same time, I do believe that people underestimate his psychological influence on this ballclub. I am as big a critic of Dusty as anybody, but I have also come to realize that these guys would run through a brick wall for him. Contrast that with Boston Red Sox players, who would prefer to bludgeon their manager's brains against a brick wall...

I believe that the Reds will win today even if Cairo and Valdez are playing, so long as Homer realizes his destiny.

I'm hoping Rolen gets his rest today because the Reds activate Votto and move Frazier to 3B. The Reds usually don't do stuff like this in the middle of a series for some reason, but I'm hoping anyway.

RedsMan3203
08-26-2012, 10:57 AM
I think you'll see changes in the lineup today, but it won't be Rolen/Cario/Valdez in the lineup....

If there are any changes, you'll see Heisey getting the start in CF.

RedsMan3203
08-26-2012, 10:58 AM
Lineup was just posted, and confirmed.

Lineup the same, Heisey in CF for Stubbs.

Tadasimha
08-26-2012, 11:27 AM
Lineup was just posted, and confirmed.

Lineup the same, Heisey in CF for Stubbs.

Good lineup - has the potential to get to Wainwright and deliver runs the way they did against Lynn and Garcia. Just need Homer to be on his game.

Stubbs needed the break - he looked so frustrated and down on hiimself in the dugout. A couple of days rest to refocus might be just what he needs - plus his speed as a pinch runner could come in handy if a games is tight.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 11:36 AM
I think Dusty understands that some of his player "rest" days may seem odd to the fans. But he doesn't seem to feel that most individual games are critical. Dusty manages for the long haul and has enough confidence in his bench to substitute anyone most days.

If I were a manager I would micromanage these off days much more, but it's a matter of style, and it's hard to say the replacements have really cost the Reds overall.

Dusty did seem to target this series as important. He rested Rolen and Phillips on Thursday. He's playing Rolen all three days. I'd guess Scott will sit in Arizona tomorrow, even against the tough lefty, Miley.

As for Homer, after watching lately, I've concluded that Homer and Leake are two talented pitchers who are just not consistent at this point. So you never know what you will get. But hopefully today Homer will be on after looking good last time.

Wainright has been tough lately, but the pressure should be relieved for the Reds after yesterday. They have Chapman well rested, which could come into play. Hoping it's a victory.

cincrazy
08-26-2012, 11:57 AM
I like our chances today. Whatever change Homer made mechanically worked wonders against the Phillies. His stuff was great, and it was down, down, down. I think he's going to have a big game today.

RedsMan3203
08-26-2012, 12:05 PM
If needed, I'd pitch Chapman 1+ innings today...

If Homer goes 7.... Let Chapman finish out the 8 and 9 today....

hebroncougar
08-26-2012, 01:01 PM
Alright............. I like it. An A lineup for today. Bailey has pitched well against the Cards. Let's kick the you know what out of Wainwright today and send the Cards outta here in style.

mth123
08-26-2012, 01:14 PM
Nice start for Homer. 1-2-3.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 01:45 PM
He looks terrible here in the third inning. Nearly walked Wainwright but gave up a clean single to him. One out so far and a run in.

If this is his defining moment, I don't like the definition he's making so far.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:02 PM
He looks terrible here in the third inning. Nearly walked Wainwright but gave up a clean single to him. One out so far and a run in.

If this is his defining moment, I don't like the definition he's making so far.

What did he get, 7 grounders that inning and one of them turned into an out?

reds44
08-26-2012, 02:03 PM
No start in August is a defining moment for anybody.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 02:07 PM
What did he get, 7 grounders that inning and one of them turned into an out?

Many of those grounders were hard hit balls that would go through many infields.

In the fourth, Homer just gave up medium grounders, not hard hit, routine outs.

The ones hit in the third were very different, several of them were shots through the infield.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 02:09 PM
What did he get, 7 grounders that inning and one of them turned into an out?

Geez, he went to full count on Wainwright, and then grooved a fastball.

Those were all solidly hit. Doesn't matter if they went through the infield. If they're hit hard, and they were, your infielders aren't going to get to them.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 02:10 PM
What did he get, 7 grounders that inning and one of them turned into an out?

Yes, and fortunately he could have given up far more damage if they weren't all grounders.

That said, it could easily be argued the reason he gave up hits, even on grounders, is because he was grooving fastballs right down the middle, allowing batters to better square up on the ball. They were obviously on top of it, given they were grounders, but it's easier to hit the ball hard when it's down the middle.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:17 PM
Yes, and fortunately he could have given up far more damage if they weren't all grounders.

That said, it could easily be argued the reason he gave up hits, even on grounders, is because he was grooving fastballs right down the middle, allowing batters to better square up on the ball. They were obviously on top of it, given they were grounders, but it's easier to hit the ball hard when it's down the middle.

Two of those were seeing eye singles that just happened to be hit into the right spot. But that was kind of the point. Sometimes they hit them where they aren't. Homer gave up a bunch of singles on groundballs in that inning. They weren't exactly teeing him up and hitting double after double. But the reaction certainly seemed that way by a few.

Again though, evaluating things on a game basis, or even worse, on an inning basis is a little silly. I know that we all do it because we live by each game, particularly when you are in first place, but we should know better than to do it.

Patrick Bateman
08-26-2012, 02:22 PM
Look, Bailey's not a control ace. He needs to miss more bats in the grand scheme of things to be more than a #4/5 guy.

I don't think evaluating one particular inning is very useful. But in this case, although he gave up lots of groundballs which is generally a good thing, it is going to happen from time to time when the other team, including the pitcher, have zero difficulty in getting the ball in play. You can't always chalk all of that stuff up to luck (nor can we say he's "dominating" when he cruises through a shutout against the Pirates). Both fluctuations are largely out of his control when he's reliant on oppositing hitters to dictate results with balls in play.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 02:22 PM
Two of those were seeing eye singles that just happened to be hit into the right spot. But that was kind of the point. Sometimes they hit them where they aren't. Homer gave up a bunch of singles on groundballs in that inning. They weren't exactly teeing him up and hitting double after double. But the reaction certainly seemed that way by a few.

Again though, evaluating things on a game basis, or even worse, on an inning basis is a little silly. I know that we all do it because we live by each game, particularly when you are in first place, but we should know better than to do it.

His command and pitch location was horrible. I don't agree with the characterization of seeing-eye singles on most of those, but regardless, when you groove a fastball down the middle, the results should not be expected to be very good. Sometimes it might only be bloop hits or seeing-eye singles. Other times it might mean the ball leaves the park. Either way, you shouldn't expect good results when grooving balls down the middle. That's not being BABIP-unlucky.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 02:25 PM
I just have to chuckle and move on. Doug, it's clear you and I will always be of very different opinions. Not sure of the reason, but you are strongly opinionated.

I'm guessing since you cover the minor leagues that you have a strong connection to the major leaguers you followed for years in the minors, like Homer and Mez. I can appreciate and respect that. I wonder if it affects your opinion on some topics though.

I'll agree to simply disagree.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:37 PM
I just have to chuckle and move on. Doug, it's clear you and I will always be of very different opinions. Not sure of the reason, but you are strongly opinionated.

I'm guessing since you cover the minor leagues that you have a strong connection to the major leaguers you followed for years in the minors, like Homer and Mez. I can appreciate and respect that. I wonder if it affects your opinion on some topics though.

I'll agree to simply disagree.

Has nothing to do with it.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:42 PM
Can I blame this on Hanigan?

reds44
08-26-2012, 02:42 PM
No you can blame it on Bailey being a mediocre pitcher.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:44 PM
No you can blame it on Bailey being a mediocre pitcher.

I was kidding. I always blame the pitcher or always give the pitcher the credit. You know, unless it was literally a Bull Durham moment where the catcher tells the guy what is coming.

reds44
08-26-2012, 02:45 PM
I was kidding. I always blame the pitcher or always give the pitcher the credit. You know, unless it was literally a Bull Durham moment where the catcher tells the guy what is coming.
I know you were but that was too easy to pass up.

757690
08-26-2012, 02:48 PM
It's fascinating how consistently inconsistent Homer is.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-26-2012, 02:50 PM
I really hope Walt is ready to move Homer this offseason. You just can't ever rely on him. Sure, he'll surprise occasionally like last week in Philly, but just when you think he's turned the corner he reverts to this.

And I'm sure at this point he loathes pitching in GABP. If you have a starter who can't win in his home park, it's time for a change.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 02:53 PM
It's fascinating how consistently inconsistent Homer is.

I blame it on Ryan Hanigan, Devin Mesoraco, Ramon Hernandez, Corky Miller, Craig Tatum, David Ross, Javy Valentin and Chad Moeller.

Tom Servo
08-26-2012, 03:09 PM
I blame it on Ryan Hanigan, Devin Mesoraco, Ramon Hernandez, Corky Miller, Craig Tatum, David Ross, Javy Valentin and Chad Moeller.
Paul Bako is blameless :lol:

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 03:12 PM
Paul Bako is blameless :lol:

Did Bako catch him? I am currently without Excel, so I was just doing a quick browsing.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 03:19 PM
Did Bako catch him? I am currently without Excel, so I was just doing a quick browsing.

I blame the ghost of Benito Santiago.

dougdirt
08-26-2012, 03:21 PM
I blame the ghost of Benito Santiago.

He is dead?!

marcshoe
08-26-2012, 03:43 PM
He is dead?!

When he went off the juice he became a ghost of his former self.

RedsManRick
08-26-2012, 04:26 PM
If anybody thinks Homero can control his groundballs going through holes where as Mike Leake can make them right at his infielders, they're nuts. Homer wasn't good today, but some days the balls have eyes and this was one of those days.

Wonderful Monds
08-26-2012, 04:31 PM
If anybody thinks Homero can control his groundballs going through holes where as Mike Leake can make them right at his infielders, they're nuts. Homer wasn't good today, but some days the balls have eyes and this was one of those days.

I'm now waiting anxiously for the (hopefully) incoming Homero Baíley photoshop.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 04:33 PM
If anybody thinks Homero can control his groundballs going through holes where as Mike Leake can make them right at his infielders, they're nuts. Homer wasn't good today, but some days the balls have eyes and this was one of those days.

Pitchers have some control over how hard those grounders are hit, Rick. Hit F/X, in its very early stages, has shown significant evidence of that. And it's also shown, as reason would suggest, that harder hit grounders are more likely to go for hits.

Therefore, relying on basic algebra, A=B+C

cumberlandreds
08-26-2012, 04:37 PM
I blame it on Ryan Hanigan, Devin Mesoraco, Ramon Hernandez, Corky Miller, Craig Tatum, David Ross, Javy Valentin and Chad Moeller.


:laugh: That's crazy.

kaldaniels
08-26-2012, 05:05 PM
Pitchers have some control over how hard those grounders are hit, Rick. Hit F/X, in its very early stages, has shown significant evidence of that. And it's also shown, as reason would suggest, that harder hit grounders are more likely to go for hits.

Therefore, relying on basic algebra, A=B+C

Is there evidence that the Cards hit the balls off Bailey harder than Leake? I will concede that some of today's balls were hit hard, but there was certainly a large element of luck involved allowing those balls to all go thru the infield.

What is the A,B,and C in the equation you cited?

jojo
08-26-2012, 05:15 PM
If anybody thinks Homero can control his groundballs going through holes where as Mike Leake can make them right at his infielders, they're nuts. Homer wasn't good today, but some days the balls have eyes and this was one of those days.

Quoted for truth.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 05:20 PM
Is there evidence that the Cards hit the balls off Bailey harder than Leake? I will concede that some of today's balls were hit hard, but there was certainly a large element of luck involved allowing those balls to all go thru the infield.

What is the A,B,and C in the equation you cited?

There's nothing one can definitively point to regarding yesterday or today, no. My response was more in general that Hit F/X returns have already proven that there is a difference in how often harder-hit grounders go for hits, and there are some pitchers able to control how hard they're hit over a period of time.

Some pitchers can control how hard they're hit and harder hit grounders are hits more often, therefore, some pitchers have influence on how many hits they give up on grounders. That's what I meant by A, B and C. I suspect Homer's hits allowed were hit harder, but I don't have anything concrete to base that on other than observation.

cincrazy
08-26-2012, 05:23 PM
I've been very critical of Homer in the past, but I didn't think he was bad today. The Cards hit four straight singles in the 3rd, and were just finding holes. I thought outside of that one inning where he was hit with some bad luck, he pitched really well. The way Wainwright was pitching today, especially early on, it just wasn't our day.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 05:37 PM
I've been very critical of Homer in the past, but I didn't think he was bad today. The Cards hit four straight singles in the 3rd, and were just finding holes. I thought outside of that one inning where he was hit with some bad luck, he pitched really well. The way Wainwright was pitching today, especially early on, it just wasn't our day.

He allowed five runs on nine hits in six innings. He grooved pitches at 3-2 and while ahead in the count in the three run inning. He topped that off by allowing a two run homer while his team was behind in the ballgame.

Homer did all this in an important game facing a tough pitcher on the other side, a situation calling for a good performance.

Sometimes I get BABIP'd to death by this board.

If Homer wasn't bad today, then I don't want to see him when he is.

jojo
08-26-2012, 05:38 PM
Is there evidence that the Cards hit the balls off Bailey harder than Leake?

No.

CrackerJack
08-26-2012, 05:40 PM
If anybody thinks Homero can control his groundballs going through holes where as Mike Leake can make them right at his infielders, they're nuts. Homer wasn't good today, but some days the balls have eyes and this was one of those days.


One of them had an eye into the bleachers unfortunately, as well.

Phhhl
08-26-2012, 05:41 PM
Well, it may have been defining. But not in a good way.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 05:47 PM
Is there evidence that the Cards hit the balls off Bailey harder than Leake? I will concede that some of today's balls were hit hard, but there was certainly a large element of luck involved allowing those balls to all go thru the infield.

What is the A,B,and C in the equation you cited?

An argument that Homer and Leake pitched similar games would be fine, except Leake didn't allow the Cards to open up the lead with a two run homer. Bailey did.

And while it is only one pitch, sometimes one pitch makes the difference.

hebroncougar
08-26-2012, 06:19 PM
An argument that Homer and Leake pitched similar games would be fine, except Leake didn't allow the Cards to open up the lead with a two run homer. Bailey did.

And while it is only one pitch, sometimes one pitch makes the difference.

It's one game. And Bailey, for the most part, has been a reason why they were 7 games up going into today. He didn't have ideal command inside the strike zone today. It happens. It's baseball. There are 162 of these every year. Breathe.

757690
08-26-2012, 07:23 PM
No.

There also is no evidence at this time that we are privy to that the Cards didn't hit the ball harder off of Bailey than they did Leake. There just is no evidence at this time on the that subject that we have access to.

WVRedsFan
08-26-2012, 07:24 PM
Food for thought, and only that:

In his last six starts going back to July 31st, Homer has the following record:

IP 32
H 51
R 28
ER 25
HR 3
BB 8
SO 25
ERA 7.03

Reds record when he has statrted in those games is 3-3
Homer's record is 1-2
Reds home record when he starts 0-3
Reds away record when he starts 3-0
ERA at home when he starts 8.69
ERA away when he starts 4.50

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 07:32 PM
I hope for both the Reds and Homer's sake that he gets traded to a team with a big park, like Harang chose to do. It's not working out when he pitches at GABP.

Send he and Stubbs in a package deal.

cincrazy
08-26-2012, 07:56 PM
I'm not saying that Homer pitched great. I just get tired of the hyperbole in regards to him. And Stubbs. And Bruce. Every good game they have, it's "OH MY GOD THEY'VE TURNED A CORNER, LOOK OUT!" And every bad game or stretch of games and people are ready to ship them out for a package of rice and some milk. There's no in-between when it comes to these guys. If you're #5 starter is Homer Bailey or Mike Leake, your a pretty damn good team.

cincrazy
08-26-2012, 07:57 PM
Food for thought, and only that:

In his last six starts going back to July 31st, Homer has the following record:

IP 32
H 51
R 28
ER 25
HR 3
BB 8
SO 25
ERA 7.03

Reds record when he has statrted in those games is 3-3
Homer's record is 1-2
Reds home record when he starts 0-3
Reds away record when he starts 3-0
ERA at home when he starts 8.69
ERA away when he starts 4.50

He also had a stretch where he had an ERA under 2.00 and was absolutely dominating, which was critical in saving the bullpen and lengthening our lead in the division.

jojo
08-26-2012, 08:02 PM
There also is no evidence at this time that we are privy to that the Cards didn't hit the ball harder off of Bailey than they did Leake. There just is no evidence at this time on the that subject that we have access to.

Leake and Homer have almost identical BABIP for the season so it's probably safe to assume that neither is better than the other at controlling how hard batters hit their pitches in general.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 08:35 PM
It's one game. And Bailey, for the most part, has been a reason why they were 7 games up going into today. He didn't have ideal command inside the strike zone today. It happens. It's baseball. There are 162 of these every year. Breathe.

So Bailey had "one game' where he didn't have "ideal" command which "happens" every so often in baseball.

Give me a break. It's a dream.

Bailey has been repeatedly awful down the stretch this year with a 7.03 ERA over the last six games, as WV's post makes clear.

Maybe you find that not "ideal." I have a different adjective for it.

Good players come up big in big games down the stretch. In all sports. For a starting pitcher, being consistently subpar in August during a pennant race is unacceptable.

Homer had some good games earlier, but the Reds don't need guys who fade down the stretch.

Maybe he'll do better in September. He still has time to turn it around.

757690
08-26-2012, 08:54 PM
Leake and Homer have almost identical BABIP for the season so it's probably safe to assume that neither is better than the other at controlling how hard batters hit their pitches in general.

Maybe, but that doesn't answer the question at hand, which is who got hit harder in their latest Cardinal series. Somewhere there is pitch FX info that answers that question, but we don't have access to it... yet.

757690
08-26-2012, 08:56 PM
An argument that Homer and Leake pitched similar games would be fine, except Leake didn't allow the Cards to open up the lead with a two run homer. Bailey did.

And while it is only one pitch, sometimes one pitch makes the difference.

Exactly. At some point, peripherals need to take a back seat to actual production.

WVRedsFan
08-26-2012, 09:12 PM
So Bailey had "one game' where he didn't have "ideal" command which "happens" every so often in baseball.

Give me a break. It's a dream.

Bailey has been repeatedly awful down the stretch this year with a 7.03 ERA over the last six games, as WV's post makes clear.

Maybe you find that not "ideal." I have a different adjective for it.

Good players come up big in big games down the stretch. In all sports. For a starting pitcher, being consistently subpar in August during a pennant race is unacceptable.

Homer had some good games earlier, but the Reds don't need guys who fade down the stretch.

Maybe he'll do better in September. He still has time to turn it around.

I think it's easy to get enamoured with guys who have good stuff. Almost all of us have no faith in soft tossers and want the guy with the blazing fastball and mean curve pitching. Sometimes it falls in the face of common sense. That was always the line about Edinson Volquez. He's nasty, filthy and all that, but he couldn't pitch and still can't. I think Bailey has more upside than Edinson, but like KC said, if we are to get into the playoffs, as I believe we will, we need guys who can pitch because the competition gets tougher. Homer is fading. I don't think six starts is a small sample size especially when it's been lately and over about 30 days. Maybe he'll turn it around and do better, but there is no evidence to support that right now.

Ghosts of 1990
08-26-2012, 09:15 PM
I'm still not sure it gets much better than watching Bailey warm up to Ted Nugent's Fred Bear at home at GABP in the top of the 1st..... when I hear that song blaring over the loud speakers I get pumped.

Brutus
08-26-2012, 09:19 PM
FWIW, BABIP since 2010, Leake's debut:

Leake (.297)
Homer (.308)

hebroncougar
08-26-2012, 09:20 PM
So Bailey had "one game' where he didn't have "ideal" command which "happens" every so often in baseball.

Give me a break. It's a dream.

Bailey has been repeatedly awful down the stretch this year with a 7.03 ERA over the last six games, as WV's post makes clear.

Maybe you find that not "ideal." I have a different adjective for it.

Good players come up big in big games down the stretch. In all sports. For a starting pitcher, being consistently subpar in August during a pennant race is unacceptable.

Homer had some good games earlier, but the Reds don't need guys who fade down the stretch.

Maybe he'll do better in September. He still has time to turn it around.

Yet, we are quick to dismiss his 4-0 July, when Votto goes down, and the Reds needed everyone to step up. I get it, he's been bad his last 6 starts. He was good in April and May, bad in June, great in July, and bad in August. He is what he is, and #3-4 type of starter at this point. Look across the league, that's what 3's 4's and 5's do for the most part. And that's what you get.

Kc61
08-26-2012, 09:48 PM
Yet, we are quick to dismiss his 4-0 July, when Votto goes down, and the Reds needed everyone to step up. I get it, he's been bad his last 6 starts. He was good in April and May, bad in June, great in July, and bad in August. He is what he is, and #3-4 type of starter at this point. Look across the league, that's what 3's 4's and 5's do for the most part. And that's what you get.

I guess it's a matter of goals. You point to the fact that Homer is similar to 3,4 and 5 pitchers across the league. I'm not interested in having a pitching staff that mirrors those across the league.

To compete with the major contenders you have to do better than that. The best starting staffs in the NL are the Nats, the Dodgers, the Cards. I want those kinds of numbers, not the semi-average across the league results.

And if a pitcher is going to go hot and cold, I certainly don't want the cold stretch to come in August in a pennant race.

The most important assets a team can have are its starting pitchers. If they fail in the big spots, generally you lose. So while I don't deny Homer's good games and his talent, I find his last month to be a big problem for the ballclub.

He will still have ample opportunities for another hot streak.

kaldaniels
08-26-2012, 11:22 PM
FWIW, BABIP since 2010, Leake's debut:

Leake (.297)
Homer (.308)

Am I mistaken or does BR have Leake at .301 for his career?

Brutus
08-26-2012, 11:51 PM
Am I mistaken or does BR have Leake at .301 for his career?

I dunno but Fangraphs shows .297 and that's what I got when I did it manually.

hebroncougar
08-27-2012, 08:50 AM
I guess it's a matter of goals. You point to the fact that Homer is similar to 3,4 and 5 pitchers across the league. I'm not interested in having a pitching staff that mirrors those across the league.

To compete with the major contenders you have to do better than that. The best starting staffs in the NL are the Nats, the Dodgers, the Cards. I want those kinds of numbers, not the semi-average across the league results.

And if a pitcher is going to go hot and cold, I certainly don't want the cold stretch to come in August in a pennant race.

The most important assets a team can have are its starting pitchers. If they fail in the big spots, generally you lose. So while I don't deny Homer's good games and his talent, I find his last month to be a big problem for the ballclub.

He will still have ample opportunities for another hot streak.

I agree. I guess I've just resigned to the fact that he'll never be a 1 or a 2. At this point, honestly, my playoff rotation is Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Leake. I like Leake for his bat as well. I'm not sure if Bailey is an option out of the pen or not. I don't think he'd handle that well myself.

Boss-Hog
08-27-2012, 10:41 AM
I agree. I guess I've just resigned to the fact that he'll never be a 1 or a 2. At this point, honestly, my playoff rotation is Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Leake. I like Leake for his bat as well. I'm not sure if Bailey is an option out of the pen or not. I don't think he'd handle that well myself.

He handled it OK in the 2010 playoffs.