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19braves77
08-26-2012, 07:04 PM
Rosters to be released on the 1st. Without knowing the slots the Reds were submiitted, who you think the Reds will send ?

mth123
08-26-2012, 07:26 PM
Rosters to be released on the 1st. Without knowing the slots the Reds were submiitted, who you think the Reds will send ?

My shot at it:

Bryson Smith
Donald Lutz
Ryan Lamarre
David Vidal
Tucker Barnhart
Josh Ravin
Justin Freeman

I think Billy Hamilton may need the rest after all those steals, but he would be a good choice to boost his value and speed his progress. I don't think Corcino is eligible. I doubt that the Reds will push Cingrani's or Lotzkar's innings. Freeman and Smith might be guys the Reds want to see how they do against some top prospects. Vidal, Lamarre, Barnhart and Lutz are probably the best AA position players left outside of Hamilton and this may be a way to speed progress or boost value. Ravin missed a lot of time and needs the innings. He wouldn't be at the top of my list, but I could see them testing Beau Mills in the AFL.

JaxRed
08-26-2012, 07:35 PM
Reds are the Peoria Javelinas this year, along with Twins, Phillies, Padres and Mariners

Here's the rules:

The roster size is 30 players per team.

Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:

All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.
One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.
One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.
No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.
To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.

I looked up the Confederation and it's Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Mexico and Venezuela.

Vottomatic
08-26-2012, 07:41 PM
I could see Hamilton going there for a short stint to test playing CF. I don't see him there for an extended period of time though.

JaxRed
08-26-2012, 07:55 PM
Teams don't usually send guys more than once, in my opinion starters sent that spent full season playing are not top prospects. Last year Reds sent 3 position players and 4 pitchers, I think the year before it was 4 and 4.

Here's my guess: They'll come from this group

Billy Hamilton
Bryson Smith
Ryan Lamarre
David Vidal
Donald Lutz
Tucker Barnhart

Chris Manno
Justin Freeman
Drew Hayes
Mark Serrano

Steve4192
08-27-2012, 07:55 AM
I think Billy Hamilton may need the rest after all those steals, but he would be a good choice to boost his value and speed his progress.

I don't care about boosting his value or speeding his progress, but the AFL would be a good, low-pressure place for him to start his transition to the OF (assuming that is where the Reds feel he will end up). I agree with you that fatigue might be an issue for him, and I would put a big fat red light on him every time he is on base. I might even force him to keep a foot on the bag to save him from the wear-and-tear of pickoff attempts. Make him a station-to-station baseclogger for the rest of the season.

redsfandan
08-27-2012, 08:27 AM
I don't care about boosting his value or speeding his progress, but the AFL would be a good, low-pressure place for him to start his transition to the OF (assuming that is where the Reds feel he will end up). I agree with you that fatigue might be an issue for him, and I would put a big fat red light on him every time he is on base. I might even force him to keep a foot on the bag to save him from the wear-and-tear of pickoff attempts. Make him a station-to-station baseclogger for the rest of the season.

He would have more value at short. Give him a shot in the AFL to work on his defense/throwing mechanics.

Steve4192
08-27-2012, 10:20 AM
He would have more value at short. Give him a shot in the AFL to work on his defense/throwing mechanics.

If a position switch is not imminent, I'd rather see the guy get a well-deserved vacation. He's already put in six months of work at SS. That is more than enough. I don't want him to get burned out. Better to let him have some time off so he can be itching to go come next spring.

REDREAD
08-27-2012, 11:30 AM
If a position switch is not imminent, I'd rather see the guy get a well-deserved vacation. He's already put in six months of work at SS. That is more than enough. I don't want him to get burned out. Better to let him have some time off so he can be itching to go come next spring.

Yea, I agree. Plus, Billy can work on his SS throwing motion over the winter without being in games (I think that's the biggest criticism of his SS defense.. arm angle on SS throws).

bellhead
08-27-2012, 12:51 PM
Yea, I agree. Plus, Billy can work on his SS throwing motion over the winter without being in games (I think that's the biggest criticism of his SS defense.. arm angle on SS throws).

Go and watch Doug's video of Billy at SS... He throws sidearm/drop arm instead of throwing over the shoulder. He makes one throw over the shoulder when he is in the hole, and he has a gun, the rest of the throws he flips over there. He needs to really work on this to stick at SS and for himself, SS get paid more than CF's unless they hit 30 dingers a year.

redsmetz
08-29-2012, 02:46 PM
Per a tweet from Jamie Ramsey, here's our attendees:

Curtis Partch, Drew Hayes, Didi Gregorius and Donald Lutz and Billy Hamilton

A subsequent tweet indicates Hamilton is noted as an outfielder on the Peoria roster and adds "not a typo".

camisadelgolf
08-29-2012, 02:54 PM
I made a promise to someone I wouldn't say anything until it became public, but Walt Jocketty talked to Hamilton earlier this season about playing outfield in the AFL, and Hamilton said he's willing to play anywhere.

lollipopcurve
08-29-2012, 02:57 PM
There we go, folks. Glad to see this. I would not be surprised if Hamilton excels in CF. The question is the arm, of course, but he could become a monster flycatcher out there.

redsmetz
08-29-2012, 03:13 PM
Here's the link for the Javelinas roster

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/club.jsp?team_id=490

Interesting that it shows Hamilton as an infielder. If someone has a link for a more recent iteration of this, please add.

So who is Curtis Partch? I'm guessing he's someone they like a little bit, but need to decide whether to protect him from the Rule 5 draft? I don't recall ever seeing him mentioned in any conversations.

redsmetz
08-29-2012, 03:37 PM
Maybe this isn't appropriate in this thread, but I did find this about Partch from a Reds Farm Report earlier this summer.

http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/2012/07/13/fridays-reds-farm-report-3/

camisadelgolf
08-29-2012, 03:50 PM
Here's the link for the Javelinas roster

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/club.jsp?team_id=490

Interesting that it shows Hamilton as an infielder. If someone has a link for a more recent iteration of this, please add.

So who is Curtis Partch? I'm guessing he's someone they like a little bit, but need to decide whether to protect him from the Rule 5 draft? I don't recall ever seeing him mentioned in any conversations.
Curt Partch reminds me of Logan Ondrusek. They both have good velocity, struggle with command at times, had mediocre minor league numbers, and couldn't get lefties out to save their lives. When the Reds sent Ondrusek to the AFL, they hoped a team would be intrigued by him and offer something valuable in a trade, but no one took the bait. Next thing you know, Ondrusek learned a cutter, and the rest is history.

cinreds21
08-29-2012, 05:39 PM
It also shows two TBA pitchers from Cincinnati.

texasdave
08-29-2012, 06:40 PM
How do they decide who gets to be on an AFL rosters?

That roster has 35 players from 5 teams. You might think 7 players from each team.
But the breakdown is:
Min - 7
Phi - 7
Cin - 5
SD - 8
Sea - 8

It's no big deal to me, I was just curious. Not many outfielders. Maybe the Reds made a deal that they would send less players if Billy Hamilton got to play more often in center?

texasdave
08-29-2012, 06:41 PM
It also shows two TBA pitchers from Cincinnati.

I did not see that. So that would up the Cincy contingent to 7?

Scrap Irony
08-29-2012, 07:22 PM
If Hamilton proves adept as scouts think at CF, how good a bet is he to be Cincinnati's leadoff hitter in 2013? 2014?

Were I LaMarre, Smith, Rodriguez, or other CFers in the pipeline, I'd be bummed.

Were I Gregorius or Cozart, I'd be really happy with the news.

Benihana
08-29-2012, 07:58 PM
If Hamilton proves adept as scouts think at CF, how good a bet is he to be Cincinnati's leadoff hitter in 2013? 2014?

Were I LaMarre, Smith, Rodriguez, or other CFers in the pipeline, I'd be bummed.

Were I Gregorius or Cozart, I'd be really happy with the news.

Agreed. This will likely relegate LaMarre to future 4th OF duties where I have said all along I think he belongs (think of him as an eventual replacement for Heisey). Bryson Smith will be happy just to make it to the show. Yorman Rodriguez is much more likely to be a RF than a CF if he makes it that far.

The biggest question will be if the Reds trade (or even non-tender?) Stubbs in this offseason. I think he is as good as gone come 2014.

_Sir_Charles_
08-29-2012, 08:03 PM
There we go, folks. Glad to see this. I would not be surprised if Hamilton excels in CF. The question is the arm, of course, but he could become a monster flycatcher out there.

Agreed.

If I were Drew Stubbs, I would be paying attention to this BIG TIME. To me, this is the organizations way of saying "Billy, center is the easiest way to the bigs for you" and of saying "Drew, you're our weakest link right now...pick it up or we're finding a replacement".

cinreds21
08-29-2012, 08:34 PM
Agreed. This will likely relegate LaMarre to future 4th OF duties where I have said all along I think he belongs (think of him as an eventual replacement for Heisey). Bryson Smith will be happy just to make it to the show. Yorman Rodriguez is much more likely to be a RF than a CF if he makes it that far.

The biggest question will be if the Reds trade (or even non-tender?) Stubbs in this offseason. I think he is as good as gone come 2014.

I don't think you can non-tender him. You either deal him in the off-season and sign Juan Pierre to a one-year deal, or hope that he doesn't fully tank next year and deal him then.

Brutus
08-29-2012, 08:40 PM
I don't think you can non-tender him. You either deal him in the off-season and sign Juan Pierre to a one-year deal, or hope that he doesn't fully tank next year and deal him then.

Why couldn't they non-tender him? You can non-tender anyone under your control without a contract for the following season.

cinreds21
08-29-2012, 08:58 PM
Why couldn't they non-tender him? You can non-tender anyone under your control without a contract for the following season.

I meant it as they can't just let him go away for nothing. He still could get SOMETHING in return.

Brutus
08-29-2012, 09:07 PM
I meant it as they can't just let him go away for nothing. He still could get SOMETHING in return.

Oh I got ya.

Well, I can't imagine he has much value at this juncture. But I also don't anticipate the Reds would non-tender him. I'd say they're more likely to option him and try to let him work through his struggles. Either way, I expect the Reds to address the position in the offseason.

redsmetz
08-31-2012, 01:38 PM
Per the Fall League's Twitter feed, Josh Ravin has been added to Peoria's roster.

@MLBazFallLeague

mth123
08-31-2012, 08:14 PM
Per the Fall League's Twitter feed, Josh Ravin has been added to Peoria's roster.

@MLBazFallLeague

Makes tons of sense. He missed much time and might have a chance in the pen. Will be a nice test while getting some work in.

dougdirt
08-31-2012, 08:17 PM
I am just hoping Ravin finds himself in a game where there is Pitch F/X running.

cinreds21
08-31-2012, 08:20 PM
He is a free agent so I guess they have already re-signed him.

dougdirt
08-31-2012, 08:24 PM
He is a free agent so I guess they have already re-signed him.

He tweeted something this afternoon about his agent and a contract, so I assume you are right and that is what they were waiting on before naming him as one of the guys they were sending out there.

mth123
08-31-2012, 08:24 PM
He is a free agent so I guess they have already re-signed him.

He's not a free agent if the Reds add him to the 40 Man roster. This may be an audition.

cinreds21
08-31-2012, 08:28 PM
He's not a free agent if the Reds add him to the 40 Man roster. This may be an audition.

He'd be a free agent before the AFL audition could happen. It's like Phipps last year. They added him right after the season so he wouldn't become a free agent.

Brutus
09-01-2012, 01:08 PM
He's not a free agent if the Reds add him to the 40 Man roster. This may be an audition.

I think minor league free agency begins in late October, so the Reds would have to add him before players are reserved again for the following season in November.

j_m_t_us
09-01-2012, 05:24 PM
Agreed. This will likely relegate LaMarre to future 4th OF duties where I have said all along I think he belongs (think of him as an eventual replacement for Heisey). Bryson Smith will be happy just to make it to the show. Yorman Rodriguez is much more likely to be a RF than a CF if he makes it that far.

The biggest question will be if the Reds trade (or even non-tender?) Stubbs in this offseason. I think he is as good as gone come 2014.


LaMarre would be there playing center field if not for having surgery after the season on his foot for plantar fasciitis which will keep him out for a few weeks. He was invited to go but he's been dealing with this for a couple months and is going to get it taken care of! I heard this from a friend of his so don't jump to conclusions on what you don't know!

RED VAN HOT
10-07-2012, 08:32 PM
The season begins this Tuesday, Oct 9. I just checked the roster and it appears that Tim Crabbe has been added as the second of two pitchers to be named later.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/club.jsp?team_id=490

Kc61
10-09-2012, 04:00 PM
Didn't realize Gregorius is on the AFL roster. Interesting.

He seems a bit advanced for the AFL. My recollection is that the Reds don't usually send AAA guys.

This could indicate the Reds are thinking of keeping Didi in the major leagues next year. Sometimes the AFL is used to get prospects additional experience before a spring training tryout.

19braves77
10-09-2012, 04:11 PM
Really interesting to hear how Billy does in centerfield.

medford
10-09-2012, 04:37 PM
Do all Reds players play for the same team??

Peoria leads 2-0:

Didi is 0-2 (playing SS)
Lutz is 1-2 w/ a run and an rbi (playing 1b)

No Sliding Billy as Zach Collier gets the nod in CF

dougdirt
10-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Do all Reds players play for the same team??

Peoria leads 2-0:

Didi is 0-2 (playing SS)
Lutz is 1-2 w/ a run and an rbi (playing 1b)

No Sliding Billy as Zach Collier gets the nod in CF

Yes, all of the Reds will be on the Peoria Javelinas.

corkedbat
10-12-2012, 01:14 AM
Still no sightings of Billy yet. Donald Lutz is 5 for 8 (.625) with a 2B, 3B, RBI and three runs scored in two games. Didi's 1 for 7. Drew Hayes and Curtis Partch have each pitched an inning with three K's,

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&sid=l119&cid=490

OesterPoster
10-12-2012, 11:58 AM
Looks like Billy is in CF today:

Donald Lutz ‏@braunerhulk

Got @b_ham_3 playing next to me in cf today for his first time I guess I won't have to move at all today! #hewillcatchthemall

mace
10-12-2012, 02:18 PM
Still no sightings of Billy yet. Donald Lutz is 5 for 8 (.625) with a 2B, 3B, RBI and three runs scored in two games. Didi's 1 for 7. Drew Hayes and Curtis Partch have each pitched an inning with three K's,

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&sid=l119&cid=490

Apparently, on his triple, Lutz lost his shoe halfway between first and second.

klw
10-12-2012, 02:46 PM
Hamilton leading off today, Lutz 5th, Gregorious 8th. should be just about to get underway.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2012_10_12_perwin_pddwin_1&mode=gameday

mace
10-12-2012, 03:45 PM
Hamilton leads off with an infield single. After a couple pickoff attempts, a pitchout and a couple fouls on which he was running, he of course steals second.

I'd love to watch him play some center field. That could be very interesting.

texasdave
10-12-2012, 03:48 PM
And then promptly gets picked off of second base.

klw
10-12-2012, 04:10 PM
Hamilton leads off with an infield single. After a couple pickoff attempts, a pitchout and a couple fouls on which he was running, he of course steals second.

I'd love to watch him play some center field. That could be very interesting.
BHam was then picked off 2nd. So far he has had at least 3 balls hit his way in the 1st as the other team has put up 8 runs with only one out.

mace
10-12-2012, 04:31 PM
The bad guys score 8 in the bottom of the first. Neither a Reds pitcher nor a Hamilton error was involved.

Never mind. Failure to read all the previous posts.

klw
10-12-2012, 06:20 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2010/index.jsp?gid=2012_10_12_perwin_pddwin_1&mode=gameday

going to the 9th
hailton is 2-4 Lutz 0-3 with a HBP and Did is 0-2 with a walk

corkedbat
10-13-2012, 01:16 AM
Any info on how he looked in the field.

klw
10-13-2012, 09:01 PM
Hamilton back in center tonight, Didi at short hitting 7th, Lutz with the night off.

texasdave
10-14-2012, 12:52 AM
Hamilton 2 for 5. Now hitting .500 for the two games (5 for 10). Gregorius went 4 for 4 (a double and three singles).

VirginiaPreps
10-14-2012, 06:41 AM
Peoria Saturday recap

Ravin pitched one inning, gave up one hit, had two strikeouts
Partch pitched 1.2 innings, gave 2 hits, one earned run (a homer!), one walk, one strikeout
Hayes pitched two innings, no hits, no walks, one strikeout, was the pitcher of record (1-0)

Hamilton was 2-5, with 2 strikeouts, no stolen bases (caught stealing once!).

Didi was 4-4! with one double, and scored twice

JaxRed
10-14-2012, 03:11 PM
I'm out there 24-26th !!!

RedTruck
10-14-2012, 11:06 PM
Peoria Saturday recap

Ravin pitched one inning, gave up one hit, had two strikeouts
Partch pitched 1.2 innings, gave 2 hits, one earned run (a homer!), one walk, one strikeout
Hayes pitched two innings, no hits, no walks, one strikeout, was the pitcher of record (1-0)

Hamilton was 2-5, with 2 strikeouts, no stolen bases (caught stealing once!).

Didi was 4-4! with one double, and scored twice

How did Hamilton look in CF?

Did he look comfortable and what not?

dougdirt
10-14-2012, 11:18 PM
I am pretty sure none of the Redszone guys are out in Arizona right now watching Hamilton.

RedTruck
10-15-2012, 01:42 AM
I am pretty sure none of the Redszone guys are out in Arizona right now watching Hamilton.

there's no live feed? and i thought there were alot of reds fans who live in arizona. can none take the trek out there and watch a single game?

dougdirt
10-15-2012, 01:32 PM
there's no live feed? and i thought there were alot of reds fans who live in arizona. can none take the trek out there and watch a single game?

Absolutely no live feed. You can count the amount of people at these games on your fingers and toes.

Az. Reds Fan
10-15-2012, 06:08 PM
I am pretty sure none of the Redszone guys are out in Arizona right now watching Hamilton.

Actually I was at the game Saturday night...The only memorable play Hamilton had was running down a deep fly in right center, made the catch look really easy. Overall I thought he looked really good. He did get caught stealing, on a play I thought he looked safe...Gregorius looked smooth at short, outside of the error on the ball that went right thru the wickets. Even though Partch gave up a bomb, the Reds pitching was solid, especially Hayes, who I've never really paid much attention to, but he was very impressive.

Scrap Irony
10-15-2012, 06:56 PM
Having watched Gregorius about 15 times total in person, I've seen a guy who can make a great play, then botch an easy one. He's very young, so that may improve. But I put a lot of stock into making the play in front of you consistently. On that, IMO, Cozart trumps him. Cozart also has better power. They have equally horrid plate approaches (based on minor league numbers).

To be fair, Cozart was well above age limits, so he should have more power. He should have a better plate approach. He should be more consistent.

If they platoon them, that suits me (though I think Cozart deserves more than a strictly southpaw diet), but I'd prefer one to be dealt. At this point, I'd probably be willing to deal the more established guy, but, if other teams prefer the younger lottery ticket, I'd likely not shed a tear there either.

Sea Ray
10-15-2012, 09:57 PM
Is it just my impression or has Hamilton developed a problem getting caught/picked off stealing since being promoted to AA? What do you think is the answer? Just more coaching/experience? I'm thinking that they should coach him to be more judicious in picking and choosing when to steal. In other words I don't think he should be trying to steal 100 bases anymore. It seems to me that even if he becomes Drew Stubbs in CF tomorrow, he's still not ready to help the Reds until he improves his steal %..

dougdirt
10-15-2012, 10:08 PM
Is it just my impression or has Hamilton developed a problem getting caught/picked off stealing since being promoted to AA? What do you think is the answer? Just more coaching/experience? I'm thinking that they should coach him to be more judicious in picking and choosing when to steal. In other words I don't think he should be trying to steal 100 bases anymore. It seems to me that even if he becomes Drew Stubbs in CF tomorrow, he's still not ready to help the Reds until he improves his steal %..

You start running into more veteran types of guys. So they probably do have better moves.

VirginiaPreps
10-16-2012, 05:52 AM
Lutz was the only Red to play on Monday. He had two singles in five at bats, and scored a run (w/no strikeouts).

UKFlounder
10-16-2012, 09:07 AM
But sometimes people learn through experience. Maybe he has to go throush such a stage in order to learn to be better. At least it is happening in the minors and this fall league (maybe these systems are serving their purpose?) instead of him coasting to the majors and learning there.




Is it just my impression or has Hamilton developed a problem getting caught/picked off stealing since being promoted to AA? What do you think is the answer? Just more coaching/experience? I'm thinking that they should coach him to be more judicious in picking and choosing when to steal. In other words I don't think he should be trying to steal 100 bases anymore. It seems to me that even if he becomes Drew Stubbs in CF tomorrow, he's still not ready to help the Reds until he improves his steal %..

lollipopcurve
10-16-2012, 09:35 AM
The only memorable play Hamilton had was running down a deep fly in right center, made the catch look really easy. Overall I thought he looked really good. He did get caught stealing, on a play I thought he looked safe...Gregorius looked smooth at short, outside of the error on the ball that went right thru the wickets. Even though Partch gave up a bomb, the Reds pitching was solid, especially Hayes, who I've never really paid much attention to, but he was very impressive.

Thanks for the update -- very nice to hear Hamilton looks good so far.

19braves77
10-16-2012, 03:59 PM
Lutz with a double already.

OesterPoster
10-16-2012, 04:50 PM
Keith Law just Tweeted that Hamilton threw out a runner going to 3rd.

texasdave
10-16-2012, 04:58 PM
Keith Law just Tweeted that Hamilton threw out a runner going to 3rd.


George Springer was on first with two outs when the next batter up singled. Springer had 32 steals during the season so he must have some speed. Hamilton gunned him down at third. That's encouraging.

texasdave
10-16-2012, 04:59 PM
Lutz with a double and a single. Hamilton a walk and a run scored. Gregorius one for two with a stolen base.

11larkin11
10-17-2012, 04:28 PM
From former major leaguer Zach Day


@ctrent Billie Hamilton just walked, stole second, and scored from second on a come backer to the pitcher. Damn he's fast. #reds #AFL12

texasdave
10-17-2012, 04:35 PM
Only in the fourth inning and Hamilton has walked twice, stolen second twice and scored twice. Lutz is 2 for 2, with a stolen base and two runs scored. Gregorius is 0 for 2.

treetops
10-18-2012, 12:36 AM
Keith Law just Tweeted that Hamilton threw out a runner going to 3rd.

Law also talked about Billy on the Baseball Today podcast today http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8515923 (around 35mins).

Rough transcription of what he said:

ran a 3.78 from left side to 1b... that's insane
made a great throw from cf to get a runner trying to go 1st to 3rd on single, threw a strike and showed some arm strength
took a horrible read on a line drive to cf... broke the wrong way... got to it because of his speed but too late to make the play
you can see he's raw
I'd be shocked if they try to bring him north on opening day as a cf
he's going to need another 50-60 games out there
he's got the ability, showed some flashes, it's going to take time

gilpdawg
10-18-2012, 01:50 AM
Law also talked about Billy on the Baseball Today podcast today http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8515923 (around 35mins).

Rough transcription of what he said:

None of that is all that surprising. Going to look brilliant at times and clueless others. Anyone who was thinking he would be ready before at earliest mid 2013 are dreaming, IMO. I know a lot of folks here dislike Law but he mentioned he's seen every AFL team multiple times so he's probably seen him quite a bit.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

dougdirt
10-18-2012, 12:26 PM
Josh Ravin game up a run yesterday, but his fastball sat between 97.4 MPH and 98.9 MPH in his inning of work.

_Sir_Charles_
10-18-2012, 05:38 PM
I don't have espn insider, but if you do here's a bit on Hamilton today.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/8519701/scouting-billy-hamilton-george-springer-other-top-prospects-arizona-fall-league-mlb

mace
10-18-2012, 09:31 PM
He said the 3.78 to first base was the fastest he'd ever seen on a batted ball.

dougdirt
10-18-2012, 10:33 PM
He said the 3.78 to first base was the fastest he'd ever seen on a batted ball.

I have seen two faster. One by Hamilton and one by Theo Bowe. Bowe was a 3.72, while Hamilton was a 3.64.

Billy Hamilton runs a 3.64 to first base on a ground out - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A0Y3pobMvE)

texasdave
10-20-2012, 01:49 AM
Peoria defeated Surprise by a 3-2 margin in the AFL on Friday. Donald Lutz went 3 for 4 and is now hitting .517. He went deep off of J.C. Sulbaran with a man on in the first. In the fifth, Billy Hamilton bunted for a hit, stole second, went to third on an errant throw by the catcher and scored the eventual game-winner on a ground out to second. He was 1 for 4 with his fifth stolen base on the season. It looks as if all four Reds' pitchers threw in the game. Crabbe started and went 2.2 innings. He gave up a run on two hits. He walked two and struck out two. Josh Ravin relieved him and gave up a run in his 1.1 innings of work. He allowed a hit and neither walked nor struck out anyone. Drew Hayes followed and worked two hitless innings. He walked one and struck out three. Curtis Partch pitched the ninth and picked up the save. He gave up a single and a base on balls, while striking out a pair.

VirginiaPreps
10-20-2012, 07:52 AM
Lutz is getting talked up a lot in the AFL. Where does he project next season?

dougdirt
10-20-2012, 09:09 AM
Lutz is getting talked up a lot in the AFL. Where does he project next season?

AA for Lutz. He didn't do well in Pensacola this year, so I would expect him to return there in 2013.

Josh Ravin was throwing 100 last night. He has not had a nice start with an ERA over 10.00, but he has been sitting 96-99 so far out there.

klw
10-20-2012, 07:51 PM
Lutz is getting talked up a lot in the AFL. Where does he project next season?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99086


First base -- Donald Lutz, Pensacola (40 games), Bakersfield (63 game), AZL Reds (4 games): The 23-year-old Cal League All-Star led the Reds' system with 22 homers and ranked third with 71 RBIs while hitting .269. It was also his second straight year with at least 20 homers and 70 RBIs.

"Everybody talks about his age, but he was a soccer player in Germany for some time, so whatever it says on his birthday, take about three off that," said Buckley, stressing Lutz's development. "He's getting better and better. He's on the 40-man roster, so we'll get him going. He'll wind up in Louisville by the end of next year."

mdccclxix
10-24-2012, 09:53 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121023&content_id=39998426&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

Lutz named player of the week in the AFL. He's the best LF prospect they have, and I love that he's left handed. Big 6'3" 230 lb guy. Decent K:BB ratio (for the Reds org). I think the "hes only been playing since 16" angle is yet to be that promising, but regardless he's putting up good enough numbers that by the time he's 25-26 he could end up platooning, or possibly starting out there under a restricted budget.

Scrap Irony
10-24-2012, 10:02 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121023&content_id=39998426&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

Lutz named player of the week in the AFL. He's the best LF prospect they have, and I love that he's left handed. Big 6'3" 230 lb guy. Decent K:BB ratio (for the Reds org). I think the "hes only been playing since 16" angle is yet to be that promising, but regardless he's putting up good enough numbers that by the time he's 25-26 he could end up platooning, or possibly starting out there under a restricted budget.

Lutz may start next season in AA Pennsacola, but he'll end it in Louisville (unless he tanks, gets hurt, or gets dealt). The next season-- 2014-- he could be a starter by mid-year.

Of course, if he truly tears up the AFL, shows power, much more patience than he is currently, and a better mastery of contact issues that have plagued him his entire career, he may move to Louisville early.

mdccclxix
10-24-2012, 10:06 AM
No walks yet in 39 PA, but he's not striking out a ton either.

mdccclxix
10-24-2012, 10:07 AM
He could get Dorn'd if his defense isn't any good.

Scrap Irony
10-24-2012, 11:19 AM
He could get Dorn'd if his defense isn't any good.

Much better athlete. Better power. Better thought of by the organization.

If he struggles for three years, perhaps they pull the plug. But chicks dig the long ball, and Lutz can run pretty well for a big guy.

corkedbat
10-24-2012, 05:28 PM
If Lutz can improve his paitience at the plate and Billy can catch on fast in center, they could join Bruce as OF starters by Opening Day 2014 (if not sooner). Both would be cheap and would help in re-signing pitchers like Bailey, Latos and Chapman. A lefty to pair with them would really be nice.

nate1213
10-24-2012, 08:40 PM
Is Lutz really someone we can except expect to start though?

Scrap Irony
10-24-2012, 08:53 PM
Depends on how his hit tool progresses and how many Ks he racks up. If he can keep his Ks below 100 in AA/AAA this season, I could definitely see him as a starter. His power's for real.

mth123
10-24-2012, 09:12 PM
Is Lutz really someone we can except expect to start though?

I'd be thrilled with 300 PAs against RHP where he is pretty productive at say .275/.330/.470/.800. Sort of an Eric Hinske type.

dougdirt
10-24-2012, 09:52 PM
Is Lutz really someone we can except expect to start though?

I am not counting on it, but it isn't out the realm of possibility either. He has some tools to work with.

JaxRed
10-24-2012, 09:59 PM
I went to today's game. First.... Billy in CF. There were two balls that were hard to the wall in CF. Billy got them both with ease. It seemed to me though that rather than tracking them smoothly on his way to the wall, that Billy seemed to spot the ball, run some more, spot the ball run some more etc. And then his grab seemed like a stab.

And then late in game an easily catchable ball fell between Billy and the RF, as they looked at each other.

Billy also hit one of those line drives that did not get caught and it went for a triple.

Lutz - Fashion wise, the first time up he came up with bloused pants. Haven't seen anyone wearing their pants like that. By second at bat they were normal. He had no hard plays in OF. In fact the only thing I remember going to him was a ball hit over his head to the wall which he played well. He does look lumbering out there.....

Saw Ravin for first time ever. He looked pretty good. Big kid and threw hard.

dougdirt
10-24-2012, 10:10 PM
Ravin threw 14 fastballs today. The average speed was 99.4 MPH and he topped out at 100.7 MPH.

Superdude
10-24-2012, 11:30 PM
Ravin threw 14 fastballs today. The average speed was 99.4 MPH and he topped out at 100.7 MPH.

:eek: Did he throw this hard in the regular season? Part of me is drooling, but the fact that he's never put up a decent season is kind of a bucket of cold water over the whole thing.

dougdirt
10-24-2012, 11:46 PM
:eek: Did he throw this hard in the regular season? Part of me is drooling, but the fact that he's never put up a decent season is kind of a bucket of cold water over the whole thing.

Yes, he was throwing close to this. I didn't see him hit 100, but heard he had. I think I saw him top out at 99 this season.

He is very hit and miss. When he is on, he is really on. But when he is off, he is really off. Usually it is related to his ability to find the strikezone. He has a Major League arm with quality pitches, he just needs to find some sort of consistency.

bellhead
10-25-2012, 11:01 AM
Yes, he was throwing close to this. I didn't see him hit 100, but heard he had. I think I saw him top out at 99 this season.

He is very hit and miss. When he is on, he is really on. But when he is off, he is really off. Usually it is related to his ability to find the strikezone. He has a Major League arm with quality pitches, he just needs to find some sort of consistency.

Doug is this a mechanics issue and release point? Or is he struggeling mentally with confidence...

alett12
10-25-2012, 11:16 AM
Is it just my impression or has Hamilton developed a problem getting caught/picked off stealing since being promoted to AA? What do you think is the answer? Just more coaching/experience? I'm thinking that they should coach him to be more judicious in picking and choosing when to steal. In other words I don't think he should be trying to steal 100 bases anymore. It seems to me that even if he becomes Drew Stubbs in CF tomorrow, he's still not ready to help the Reds until he improves his steal %..

I have no problem with him running he has to learn how big of a lead he can get on different pitchers so he should keep running.

JaxRed
10-25-2012, 09:18 PM
I was at today's game also. (one more to go). Lutz played 1st but was replaced part way thru game. Didi was at SS and Billy at CF again. Billy had another ball hit over his head that he tracked down, and this time it looked smoother.

He also made the play of the day on a ball that looked like a sure single but he came in and snagged it with a diving catch. Didi was slick at SS.

texasdave
10-25-2012, 09:43 PM
Crabbe with four hitless innings. He walked one and struck out two.

texasdave
10-25-2012, 09:43 PM
If Hamilton is an 80 runner, what is Stubbs?

dougdirt
10-25-2012, 09:47 PM
I was at today's game also. (one more to go). Lutz played 1st but was replaced part way thru game.

He just tweeted that he had his hand X-Ray'd for his finger. He said he doesn't think it is broken, but maybe. I guess we will know soon enough.

Tuff Nut
10-25-2012, 10:21 PM
Is Hayes still pitching well? Haven't seen an update on him in awhile. Last I had seen on here, he was doing well. Thanks in advance

Scrap Irony
10-26-2012, 02:55 PM
If Hamilton is an 80 runner, what is Stubbs?

I'd rank him between 65 and a 75. He's definitely plus.

dougdirt
10-26-2012, 03:24 PM
He just tweeted that he had his hand X-Ray'd for his finger. He said he doesn't think it is broken, but maybe. I guess we will know soon enough.

Broken finger for Lutz.

klw
10-26-2012, 03:55 PM
Broken finger for Lutz.
Just cut it off and get back in the game kid. You have 9 others.

Scrap Irony
10-26-2012, 04:02 PM
My favorite all-time NFL story (though it involves the Steelers and may be aprochyphal):

Jack Lambert, in a pre-season contest with the Cardinals, got his finger stuck between a helmet-to-helmet lick. The finger was a mass of broken and bleeding cartilidge; the bones hadn't just been broken, but pulverized. Half his pinkie was hanging by skin.

He came to the sideline so the trainer could look at it. When told he'd have to come out, Smilin' Jack told the trainer to go ahead and cut it off-- he had nine more.

JaxRed
10-26-2012, 08:04 PM
Went to todays game. The more I see of Billy in CF the better I feel, Billy also went deep today. A real HR out of the park, Halfway up the berm.

lollipopcurve
10-27-2012, 07:32 AM
A real HR out of the park, Halfway up the berm.

Hit it righty. I think he's got a little more juice on his natural side.

Good to hear he's looking good in center.

dougdirt
10-27-2012, 11:30 AM
Hit it righty. I think he's got a little more juice on his natural side.

Good to hear he's looking good in center.

Without question he has more from the right side. More bat speed, better swing plane, better balance.

RedTruck
10-29-2012, 03:02 AM
Power wise how is he projected?

Say he's a Red in 2015, and in the next 2.5 years he bulks up (at a reasonable and expected rate) how many home runs do you reckon he will hit on average?

Ryan Hanigan numbers? 1-3?

More?

I'd like him to have a little pop, and I'm sure GABP can supply that.

Hopefully expecting 5-10 won't be to unreasonable from him.

camisadelgolf
10-29-2012, 03:50 AM
In theory, it's kind of up to him. Bulking up would slow him down, so the preference might be that he never develops 5-10 home run power.

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 08:07 AM
Power wise how is he projected?

Say he's a Red in 2015, and in the next 2.5 years he bulks up (at a reasonable and expected rate) how many home runs do you reckon he will hit on average?

Ryan Hanigan numbers? 1-3?

More?

I'd like him to have a little pop, and I'm sure GABP can supply that.

Hopefully expecting 5-10 won't be to unreasonable from him.

I don't care if Billy Hamilton ever hits a HR in the majors.

Even if he hits a few over the wall, it's going to be so rare that it is almost inconsequential. I'm much more interested in whether he can consistently put enough stank on the ball to rack up 40 or 50 extra base hits per year. I don't give a damn if none of them go over the wall. 30 doubles, 10 triples and 0 HR in conjunction with a 350 OBP would be just fine with me.

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 08:13 AM
In theory, it's kind of up to him. Bulking up would slow him down, so the preference might be that he never develops 5-10 home run power.

I don't buy that bulking up would slow him down. Have you ever seen what Olympic sprinters are built like? Those guys are jacked. As long as Billy made sure to concentrate on his lower body rather than his beach muscles, he could stand to gain a lot of size without getting so large that it would impact his speed.

Superdude
10-29-2012, 09:04 AM
I don't buy that bulking up would slow him down. Have you ever seen what Olympic sprinters are built like? Those guys are jacked. As long as Billy made sure to concentrate on his lower body rather than his beach muscles, he could stand to gain a lot of size without getting so large that it would impact his speed.

I can't imagine a little muscle slowing him down either. He still looks rail thin to me.

I think Hamilton will be a freak in center and provide plenty of value on the bases, but I'm still struggling to see him profiling as a consistently competent hitter. Without any home run power and average at best contact skills, he looks so much like, dare I say, Willy Taveras. Is his speed enough to separate him from the most scorned player in RedsZone history?

ucnum1
10-29-2012, 10:12 AM
His speed seperates him from everybody....Ive seen Deion Sanders and Eric Davis in thier prime...Hamilton is faster imo...He is also a better than average contact hitter from what I saw in Pensacola and yes he is a much better hitter from the right side of the plate...Id say a .260=.275 major league BA line will be his norm.

dougdirt
10-29-2012, 01:27 PM
Hamilton might hit 5 home runs in a season in his best year of his career. I would be more concerned with his 18% strikeout rate than his power though.

Scrap Irony
10-29-2012, 03:34 PM
He's trending in the right direction. His BB rate has blossomed. His hit tool has improved (by almost all scouting takes as well). His K rate is a little high, but has shown real improvement even while he's moving up levels. In AA, for example, he earned almost a BB for every K. A hitter like Hamilton, who's willing to work counts late in an AB, will K. That's the nature of the beast. However, his BB rate will (hopefully) keep his obp high enough (@ 350 or better) to make him a better than average starting CF most years and a difference-maker when he's BaBIP-lucky.

dougdirt
10-29-2012, 03:37 PM
He's trending in the right direction. His BB rate has blossomed. His hit tool has improved (by almost all scouting takes as well). His K rate is a little high, but has shown real improvement even while he's moving up levels. In AA, for example, he earned almost a BB for every K. A hitter like Hamilton, who's willing to work counts late in an AB, will K. That's the nature of the beast. However, his BB rate will (hopefully) keep his obp high enough (@ 350 or better) to make him a better than average starting CF most years and a difference-maker when he's BaBIP-lucky.

Yeah, I am so much more a believer in Hamilton today than I was at the same point last year that it isn't funny. I still do question his bat some, because I simply don't trust absolute no home run power guys until they actually do it in the Majors, but Hamilton has come a long way in a short period of time. Better balance (particularly from the left side), more patience and a seemingly much better overall approach at the plate.

JayBruceFan
10-29-2012, 05:07 PM
Travis Mattair was added to the AFL roster

Superdude
10-29-2012, 05:15 PM
In AA, for example, he earned almost a BB for every K. A hitter like Hamilton, who's willing to work counts late in an AB, will K. That's the nature of the beast. However, his BB rate will (hopefully) keep his obp high enough (@ 350 or better) to make him a better than average starting CF most years and a difference-maker when he's BaBIP-lucky.

Is there a precedent of any hitter with Hamilton's skill set walking a lot? I can't imagine the strategy against him at the big league level being anything other than, "throw strikes, throw strikes, and throw more strikes." I'm thoroughly intrigued by Billy Hamilton, but his numbers so far are practically interchangeable with other speed flops like Taveras and Gathright at similar points in their career.

dougdirt
10-29-2012, 05:22 PM
Is there a precedent of any hitter with Hamilton's skill set walking a lot? I can't imagine the strategy against him at the big league level being anything other than, "throw strikes, throw strikes, and throw more strikes." I'm thoroughly intrigued by Billy Hamilton, but his numbers so far are practically interchangeable with other speed flops like Taveras and Gathright at similar points in their career.

Maybe a guy like Michael Bourn.

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 05:39 PM
I'm thoroughly intrigued by Billy Hamilton, but his numbers so far are practically interchangeable with other speed flops like Taveras and Gathright at similar points in their career.

Hamilton has shown a lot more power than those guys. Both Gathright and Taveras were pathetic at driving the ball for extra base hits. Hamilton has put up back-to-back 30+ XBH seasons (neither Gathright nor Taveras could even top 20 XBH until they got older). He's got enough pop to drive the ball into gaps and make pitchers pay for pounding the strikezone against him.

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 05:49 PM
Maybe a guy like Michael Bourn.

Bourn is definitely a better comparison for Hamilton. Like Billy, Bourn can sting the ball enough to get it into the gaps. He had 39 XBH as a 21 year old in single-A, 32 XBH the following year and AA, and 29 XBH in his final year in the minors (split between AA & AAA). He's been able to consistently put up between 30 and 40 XBH since reaching the majors as well. That's enough to keep pitchers honest.

Tadasimha
10-29-2012, 08:43 PM
Hamilton has shown a lot more power than those guys. Both Gathright and Taveras were pathetic at driving the ball for extra base hits. Hamilton has put up back-to-back 30+ XBH seasons (neither Gathright nor Taveras could even top 20 XBH until they got older). He's got enough pop to drive the ball into gaps and make pitchers pay for pounding the strikezone against him.

I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 09:19 PM
I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

Gathright and Taveras also have extraordinary speed but couldn't get an extra base hit to save their lives. Gathright once posted SEVEN doubles totals for a season. That is downright pathetic. The notion that fast guys automatically rack up big doubles totals based on their speed is a fallacy.

I don't care how fast you are, you aren't going to get extra base hits unless you make outfielders turn their hips, either to chase a ball in the gaps or because it is over their head. Hamilton and Bourn consistently make outfielders turn their hips, something those other fast guys were never able to do.

redsfan1995
10-29-2012, 11:08 PM
For those interested MLB Network is showing the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game this Saturday at 8 PM.

Hoosier Red
10-31-2012, 09:00 AM
I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

I think that's where it's important to consider the comparables brought up earlier.

Whether its "just stretching a single into a double" or "knocking a ball to the wall" neither Tavares nor Gaithright could do it with the regularity that Hamilton has thus far.


Also, even stretching a single into a double shows why pitchers need to be more careful around him and can't simply throw fastball straight down the middle, thus leading to more walks.

<EDIT> Instead of reading my post, just read Steve4192's post he answers it better than I.

kpresidente
10-31-2012, 01:00 PM
I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

Isn't that good enough? If I'm going to pitch around a guy because I'm afraid he's going to hit a double, what do I care whether he hits a one-hopper to the fence or stretches a single into a double? Does that change anything about my approach as the pitcher?

dougdirt
10-31-2012, 01:57 PM
Isn't that good enough? If I'm going to pitch around a guy because I'm afraid he's going to hit a double, what do I care whether he hits a one-hopper to the fence or stretches a single into a double? Does that change anything about my approach as the pitcher?

It does, because the guy who can hit a one hopper to the fence can probably take a mistake over it with semi-regularity. The guy who is constantly stretching singles into double can't. You worry about throwing strikes more often to the first guy. Not so much the second guy. In theory at least.

M2
10-31-2012, 07:22 PM
I'm trying to think of a player who ever got any kind of SLG due to his speed. No one stretches singles into doubles with any kind of regularity. In fact, doubles leaders boards are often littered with slow players. The quality of the hit is what gets you a double. If you don't get it into a gap then even a Juan Pierre can make the throw to second.

Speed can turn a double into a triple (or a triple into a HR), and that might be what we're seeing with Hamilton. Instead of 22 doubles with 14 triples, he might be hitting more like a 30 doubles, 6 triples player who legs his way to extra triples.

dougdirt
11-01-2012, 01:56 AM
Curtis Partch and Billy Hamilton will be participating as the Reds representatives of the Rising Stars All Star Game on Saturday (MLB Network - 9pm - this Saturday).

mth123
11-01-2012, 03:08 AM
Curtis Partch and Billy Hamilton will be participating as the Reds representatives of the Rising Stars All Star Game on Saturday (MLB Network - 9pm - this Saturday).

Partch seems to have made a big step forward since his move to the pen. Could he come fast? He's one of my minor league sleepers who might have a shot at helping the Reds at some point in 2013. If the Reds cut loose or deal off some guys to save some cash (Ondrusek, Bray, Arredondo, Broxton, Madson, Masset, etc.) there may be some opportunity in the pen. I'm not suggesting that Partch would be in the mix in spring training, but if the team burns through a few options due to injury or ineffectiveness, I'm guessing Partch may put himself in position for a shot by mid-season.

camisadelgolf
11-01-2012, 03:54 AM
I hope I'm wrong about him, but until Curt Partch develops a pitch that can get lefties out, I'm not all that high on him. I felt the same way about Ondrusek, but Ondrusek developed a cutter and is now better against lefties than he is righties.

Matt700wlw
11-01-2012, 01:24 PM
MLB Network to air 3 AFL games

http://mlbnetwork.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121029&content_id=40120878&vkey=pr_mlb_network&c_id=mlb_network

19braves77
11-02-2012, 03:51 PM
Lutz AFL season is done. Broken Finger

RED VAN HOT
11-02-2012, 05:35 PM
Lutz AFL season is done. Broken Finger

Not surprising. Mattair was probably added to replace him.

jt4prez
11-03-2012, 08:26 PM
Billy Hamilton walked to begin the AFL All-Star game. He then proceeded to steal 2nd and 3rd. His steal of 3rd occurred after the pitch on a throw back from the catcher to the pitcher.

cinreds21
11-03-2012, 09:33 PM
Billy just made an amazing diving play in deep center.

mattfeet
11-03-2012, 09:33 PM
Nice diving catch in CF for Billy in the 4th inning. Got a late break but still ran it down.

dougdirt
11-03-2012, 09:39 PM
More of a running catch then fall, but he covered some ground to get there. Got worried when he kept going toward the wall head first. That is scary.

JayStubbs
11-03-2012, 09:47 PM
The announcers, Severino, Verducci and Mayo have been singing Hamilon's praises all game, and he's been proving them right so far.

cinreds21
11-03-2012, 09:49 PM
Bunt single to the first side for Billy. Wild throw, Hamilton advances to third. This kid is going to be fun to watch.

cinreds21
11-03-2012, 09:52 PM
Of course, he scored on a single up the middle.

JayStubbs
11-03-2012, 10:32 PM
Best quote from Mayo. Verducci said tonight's game had enough Billy Hamilton highlights to make a box set, to which Mayo replied, "It would only last eight seconds."

cinreds21
11-03-2012, 11:21 PM
Hamilton walked in his latest at-bat.

11larkin11
11-04-2012, 01:35 AM
Hamilton seems to have that "Brandon Phillips Factor". Seems to turn it up when the spotlight is on.

lollipopcurve
11-04-2012, 08:48 AM
I thought Partch flashed some good stuff. A couple of his sliders were filthy, and the fastball was good.

reds1869
11-04-2012, 10:30 AM
For those of you who haven't seen the great catch mentioned above, here you go. I'm drooling picturing Billy as Cincinnati's every day CF.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25471379&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_25471379&v=3

hebroncougar
11-04-2012, 04:27 PM
Here is Hamilton stealing 2nd, then stealing 3rd on the catcher's throw back to the pitcher after a pitch

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25471245&topic_id=7617858&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_25471245&v=3

redsof72
11-05-2012, 10:29 AM
The steal of third on the throw back to the pitcher is the Hamilton we saw in Dayton. He does things that no one else does. As far as the catch in center, I am surprised people are making that out to be a great play. I think it demonstrates that he has a ways to go to learn to play the position. Does not break back on the ball as hard as he needed to, going back at about 75 percent, then realizes he needs to turn it on and at the last minute, lunges, catches the ball, and falls down. Should have caught the ball without too much trouble. I have no doubt that he will become a great defensive center fielder, but that play shows that he is still a little raw (as anyone would reasonably expect considering lack of experience there). He just needs some experience learning to judge fly balls off the bat.

Thanks to those who posted the video.

Blitz Dorsey
11-07-2012, 02:11 PM
That steal of third is just sick. I love it.

It won't happen at the start of the 2013 season of course, but thank god we know Billy Hamilton is the Reds' CF/leadoff hitter of the future. Good-bye Drew Stubbs.

dougdirt
11-07-2012, 02:59 PM
That steal of third is just sick. I love it.

It won't happen at the start of the 2013 season of course, but thank god we know Billy Hamilton is the Reds' CF/leadoff hitter of the future. Good-bye Drew Stubbs.

He might be, but the assumption that he is going to be better than Stubbs seems a little premature.

camisadelgolf
11-07-2012, 03:28 PM
He might be, but the assumption that he is going to be better than Stubbs seems a little premature.
Now you're just trolling. ;)

But I'm with you. People really need to be cautious with their expectations. If I were to guess, yeah, I think Hamilton will be at least a serviceable center fielder. It's still far from a sure thing, though. I want to see him hit a MLB breaking ball before I tab him as a surefire center fielder of the future.

Cooper
11-08-2012, 09:03 AM
I'm wondering why they didn't make the change to centerfield during the season - it appears to me that getting reps would be the most important element of learning the position. I'm guessing i might be missing something from a developmental standpoint (how to call for a ball that's between zones, hitting the cut off, etc...)..what am i missing- why the wait?

Cooper
11-08-2012, 09:31 AM
Anyone know how many throwing errors Hamilton has "caused"?

Ok, my math might be off, but i trying to determine the value of those SB's....so here goes:

take the caught stealings x2- subtract from total number of bases stolen and multiply it be .66? 74-155x.66 = 57 total bases ....add that to his TB total and that appears to be 272/512= .531 slugging percentage.

I tend to think he's ready from an offensive stand point - i agree with reds of 72 - that was a poor read on the fly ball to center -stubbs would've easily caught that ball standing up.

backbencher
11-08-2012, 12:02 PM
As far as the catch in center, I am surprised people are making that out to be a great play. I think it demonstrates that he has a ways to go to learn to play the position. Does not break back on the ball as hard as he needed to, going back at about 75 percent, then realizes he needs to turn it on and at the last minute, lunges, catches the ball, and falls down. Should have caught the ball without too much trouble.

The play is known as a "Jim Edmonds." It leads to Gold Gloves.

nemesis
11-08-2012, 12:20 PM
I'm wondering why they didn't make the change to centerfield during the season - it appears to me that getting reps would be the most important element of learning the position. I'm guessing i might be missing something from a developmental standpoint (how to call for a ball that's between zones, hitting the cut off, etc...)..what am i missing- why the wait?



Reds wanted him to focus on his plate approach this season. Switching him to CF could have hindered that. Trying to learn a new position and working on his bat could have taken away from one or both...

Plus that outfield in Bakersfield is nightmare. Not the best place to learn...

dougdirt
11-08-2012, 12:52 PM
Anyone know how many throwing errors Hamilton has "caused"?

Ok, my math might be off, but i trying to determine the value of those SB's....so here goes:

take the caught stealings x2- subtract from total number of bases stolen and multiply it be .66? 74-155x.66 = 57 total bases ....add that to his TB total and that appears to be 272/512= .531 slugging percentage.

I tend to think he's ready from an offensive stand point - i agree with reds of 72 - that was a poor read on the fly ball to center -stubbs would've easily caught that ball standing up.

Doesn't work that way. SLG is not valuable because it tells us how many bases you acquire, it is also valuable because it tells us how many bases you can likely move up guys when you are at the plate with them on. Add in steals doesn't make that happen.

redsof72
11-08-2012, 04:56 PM
The play is known as a "Jim Edmonds." It leads to Gold Gloves.

Are you saying you think that was an excellent play?

If so, I would counter that if an outfielder had to go to the ground to catch a ball that he did not go after at full speed from the get-go, then he did not play it particularly well. Not to take anything away from Hamilton. That's one play. But he needs reps out there. Imagine what his range will be when he learns to read the ball instantly off the bat, the way Stubbs does.

medford
11-08-2012, 04:58 PM
Are you saying you think that was an excellent play?

If so, I would counter that if an outfielder had to go to the ground to catch a ball that he did not go after at full speed from the get-go, then he did not play it particularly well. Not to take anything away from Hamilton. That's one play. But he needs reps out there. Imagine what his range will be when he learns to read the ball instantly off the bat, the way Stubbs does.

I was going to post something similar to backbencher.

I'm pretty sure both you and he are on the exact same page and it was a subtle rip at Edmunds ability to turn the "routine" into a "gem"; at least that what I was thinking when I had that thought.

Cooper
11-08-2012, 06:24 PM
Doug ....the formula takes much of what you said into effect.....it may not take everything into effect on a one to one basis (hence the .66. % of total squired).....I got it from the bill james site, but he rarely has a clue about the value of things....that's a joke.

camisadelgolf
11-08-2012, 06:31 PM
Are you saying you think that was an excellent play?

If so, I would counter that if an outfielder had to go to the ground to catch a ball that he did not go after at full speed from the get-go, then he did not play it particularly well. Not to take anything away from Hamilton. That's one play. But he needs reps out there. Imagine what his range will be when he learns to read the ball instantly off the bat, the way Stubbs does.
Edmonds had a reputation for going soft on a drive to the outfield just so he could dive for it when it wasn't necessary. I'm pretty sure that's what he was alluding to.

Cooper
11-08-2012, 09:32 PM
Nemesis - i never thought about the bakersfield dimensions being in play -you're right ...that field is odd and would impact his learning curve --great observation.

redsof72
11-09-2012, 10:01 AM
Reds wanted to keep him at shortstop to improve his mental understanding of the overall game itself, an area they felt he needed to improve upon to be a good major leaguer, and they felt keeping him at shortstop would keep him engaged in the game mentally at all times, as opposed to standing out in the outfield. That was part of it--straight from an extremely top-level source.

Also, as stated by Nemesis, Hamilton was right on the verge of taking a big step forward as a hitter (which he did) and they wanted to let that happen without clogging up his head worrying about learning a new defensive position.

Cooper
11-09-2012, 01:02 PM
Great info. Thanks 72.

M2
11-09-2012, 02:17 PM
Reds wanted to keep him at shortstop to improve his mental understanding of the overall game itself, an area they felt he needed to improve upon to be a good major leaguer, and they felt keeping him at shortstop would keep him engaged in the game mentally at all times, as opposed to standing out in the outfield. That was part of it--straight from an extremely top-level source.

Also, as stated by Nemesis, Hamilton was right on the verge of taking a big step forward as a hitter (which he did) and they wanted to let that happen without clogging up his head worrying about learning a new defensive position.

It's also not a move you make lightly or in a vacuum. Hamilton is a dynamite athlete and I'd be surprised if the opinion inside the organization is anything other than Hamilton could have been a successful SS had he stayed there. It might have taken extra time for him to get his defense sorted out. It might not have been his optimal position. Yet in sports you usually have confidence that an athlete like Hamilton will make the leap (certainly that's what the Reds are thinking with him in CF).

So you probably don't rush into shifting a kid you fundamentally believe in. On top of that, the organizational picture at SS and CF affects the decision. It may have taken extra time to decide that Hamilton is going to be a better fit for the Reds at CF. In other words, they resisted making the shift until they were sure. Drew Stubbs and Zack Cozart's seasons might have played significant roles in this decision.

Cooper
11-10-2012, 06:04 PM
Anyone bothered by Hamilton's extremely high babip? Appears he has a high one at each level. I don't have any numbers on his line drive percentage (doug might)--he's a player at the extremes- maybe it doesn't matter....idk.

jt4prez
11-10-2012, 06:49 PM
Anyone bothered by Hamilton's extremely high babip? Appears he has a high one at each level. I don't have any numbers on his line drive percentage (doug might)--he's a player at the extremes- maybe it doesn't matter....idk.

Just my off the cuff thoughts based on my somewhat limited understanding of BABIP, but it seems almost inherent that a player with Hamilton's speed would have a higher than normal BABIP-- almost every ball that Hamilton hits on the ground results in a bang-bang play at 1st. Obviously his BABIP will regress when he gets to the majors, but I don't really have any problem with it being where it is. Usually a high BABIP doesn't correlate to anything other than "luck;" here it would seem to me, without really looking at the numbers, that it correlates to Hamilton's speed.

I guess you could even look at it as a positive, in that Hamilton isn't hitting too many flyballs, rather hitting line drives and ground balls which give him a much better chance at reaching 1st base. Interested to hear others' thoughts.

dougdirt
11-10-2012, 07:14 PM
His BABIP is going to drop off some in the Majors. Fields are better, fielders are better and first basemen are better.

He will still have a high BABIP because his speed will make a difference. But he has to cut down on the strikeouts from where they were in AA. Let's just assume a .330 BABIP is the baseline, with 3 home runs in 600 at bats, he is a .267 hitter. That isn't bad, but it isn't really good either. He needs to cut down the strikeouts.

Cooper
11-10-2012, 08:11 PM
Steve 4192 mentioned some players who were rated as high end prospects and ended up not making an effect - most of the ones mentioned had a one year major jump in their numbers and everyone (at that time) thought the improvement was real and substainable --it wasn't ....but at that time we didn't really apply the lessons of Voros Law. The application of this has helped divide wheat from chaff. Billy's numbers are really high, but i'm of the mind that doug's correct.

camisadelgolf
11-11-2012, 03:54 AM
Steve 4192 mentioned some players who were rated as high end prospects and ended up not making an effect - most of the ones mentioned had a one year major jump in their numbers and everyone (at that time) thought the improvement was real and substainable --it wasn't ....but at that time we didn't really apply the lessons of Voros Law. The application of this has helped divide wheat from chaff. Billy's numbers are really high, but i'm of the mind that doug's correct.
How dare you say something remotely negative about a Reds prospect?! RedsZone is for Reds fans, not Reds realists.

Steve4192
11-11-2012, 09:54 AM
Steve 4192 mentioned some players who were rated as high end prospects and ended up not making an effect - most of the ones mentioned had a one year major jump in their numbers and everyone (at that time) thought the improvement was real and substainable --it wasn't

How is Billy any different?

He hit like crap as an 18 year old in the GCL, hit well in the bandbox at Billings as a 19 year old (where even non-prospects hit well), got a lot of attention for racking up triple-digit steals at Dayton as a 20 year old (but didn't hit particularly well), and then busted out as a 21 year old this season at Bakersfield and Pensacola. His 2012 season was WAY better than anyone could have predicted.

I believe in Hamilton, but I also recognize that a lot of things Doug has been saying about him (walk rate might not hold up, BABIP will drop as fields/defenders improve, K rate is an issue, etc.) are legitimate concerns. He might go back to being the guy he was in Dayton rather than moving forward as the guy we saw this year.

Cooper
11-11-2012, 11:31 AM
Steve: He might be slightly different in that his speed may help increase his babip -but i do think there will be a correction coming related to babip. What we should do -if we were real stats dudes (and you guys already know this) ...is run a little comp study with an emphasis on body type, handedness, speed to first base, and approach. I kind would think it might be good to throw out post age 35 stats as players get older and lose a step. Keep in mind, I'm eyeballing this, it's not a good study and may be missing a big part of what needs to be taken into account (LD%, K and BB%, ect...).

Ichiro appears to be a good match: his babip up until age 35 looks to be in neighborhood of .360.

Brett Butler .322.
Willie Wilson .332.
Juan P. .314.
Willie McGhee .340.
Mickey Rivers .315.
Luis Polonia .323.
Lance Johnson .306.

Looks like to me that Doug's .330 babip is right in line with these fellows.
I'm not sure if all those guys fit - just an fyi- they all had better babips earlier in their careers than later except for Butler. If i remember right, his approach might have been the most extreme as he really narrowed down what he was trying to do - go the other way and not go that way unless he got a good pitch to hit- he also appeared to bunt about .600 every year. I don't remember his approach being that extreme earlier in his career (maybe manny mota and vic davilillo worked with him, idk).

One other aside: a lot of these guys ended up playing leftfield. Did their lack of overall strength keep them from being able to have enough arm strength to play centerfield? I realize that it's further along on the defensive spectrum, but it does make one wonder.

One more aside of an aside: Stubbs babip was really about 30-35 points lower than his historical rate. Makes me think he's due for a slight upward correction.

Stubbs Babips in the minors (and this was discussed ad nauseum at the time)...353 pretty high. He got a correction when he came to the majors.

Doug -do you know the babip averages for a minor leaguer? I'm guessing the rate is higher at the lower levels.

Cooper
11-11-2012, 11:33 AM
Does anyone know Billy's LD % - Doug??

dougdirt
11-11-2012, 12:03 PM
16%

mth123
11-11-2012, 01:16 PM
Steve: He might be slightly different in that his speed may help increase his babip -but i do think there will be a correction coming related to babip. What we should do -if we were real stats dudes (and you guys already know this) ...is run a little comp study with an emphasis on body type, handedness, speed to first base, and approach. I kind would think it might be good to throw out post age 35 stats as players get older and lose a step. Keep in mind, I'm eyeballing this, it's not a good study and may be missing a big part of what needs to be taken into account (LD%, K and BB%, ect...).

Ichiro appears to be a good match: his babip up until age 35 looks to be in neighborhood of .360.

Brett Butler .322.
Willie Wilson .332.
Juan P. .314.
Willie McGhee .340.
Mickey Rivers .315.
Luis Polonia .323.
Lance Johnson .306.

Looks like to me that Doug's .330 babip is right in line with these fellows.
I'm not sure if all those guys fit - just an fyi- they all had better babips earlier in their careers than later except for Butler. If i remember right, his approach might have been the most extreme as he really narrowed down what he was trying to do - go the other way and not go that way unless he got a good pitch to hit- he also appeared to bunt about .600 every year. I don't remember his approach being that extreme earlier in his career (maybe manny mota and vic davilillo worked with him, idk).

One other aside: a lot of these guys ended up playing leftfield. Did their lack of overall strength keep them from being able to have enough arm strength to play centerfield? I realize that it's further along on the defensive spectrum, but it does make one wonder.

One more aside of an aside: Stubbs babip was really about 30-35 points lower than his historical rate. Makes me think he's due for a slight upward correction.

Stubbs Babips in the minors (and this was discussed ad nauseum at the time)...353 pretty high. He got a correction when he came to the majors.

Doug -do you know the babip averages for a minor leaguer? I'm guessing the rate is higher at the lower levels.

IMO, Willie Wilson is the absolute best case offensive scenario for Hamilton. If he comes close to that, he'll be a big success. If Hamilton can be Wilson to Votto's George Brett, should be in for a lot of good times in Cincy.

Scrap Irony
11-11-2012, 02:41 PM
Brett Butler would be my ideal comp.

dougdirt
11-16-2012, 11:34 AM
Peoria won their division. They will play for the AFL championship Saturday afternoon at 3pm on MLB Network.

mth123
11-16-2012, 07:09 PM
Peoria won their division. They will play for the AFL championship Saturday afternoon at 3pm on MLB Network.

Looks like Tim Crabbe will be the starting pitcher.

mattfeet
11-17-2012, 03:11 PM
Holy cow, nice start for Hamilton in the AFL Championship game. EASY standup triple to leadoff the game. Wow dude is fast. lol

-Matt

Crumbley
11-17-2012, 03:49 PM
Hamilton is just absurd, they were bewildered trying to defend against that bunt. Then he ends up on 3rd base off a grounder.

RedTruck
11-17-2012, 03:59 PM
Can anyone comment on Hamiltons performance during the arizona fall league season?

.234 batting avg, .306 OBP

That's concerning.

Still seems like he's raw, or might never pull it together. Sigh

dougdirt
11-17-2012, 04:40 PM
Can anyone comment on Hamiltons performance during the arizona fall league season?

.234 batting avg, .306 OBP

That's concerning.

Still seems like he's raw, or might never pull it together. Sigh

Incredibly small sample size. He has had 700 plate appearances this year. He has attempted to steal 200 bases this year. Dude is probably worn down and tired at this point.

There are some concerns about Hamilton still in my opinion, but it isn't because he has hit .234 in the AFL this year.

icehole3
11-17-2012, 06:38 PM
I agree Doug, he has given the Reds everything in the tank this year, he may win minor league player of the year for the Reds, nothing to be concerned about

The DARK
11-17-2012, 07:02 PM
Learning CF and cutting down on strikeouts definitely looked like it needs to be the top priority right now. He seems to have the raw tools for CF and has a reliable enough arm, but some of the routes he's been taking have been horrible. There's a lot of work to be done there, but he's probably MLB capable right now. He just wouldn't be a particularly valuable player, and would benefit from more time learning the position.

I take it its normal for switch hitters like Billy to be naturally right-handed? If hitting from your natural tends to bee smoother with more pop, then there's good reason beyond matchups to attempt to switch hit.

JaxRed
11-17-2012, 10:04 PM
Didn't see this mentioned, but Hamilton left the game injured. Seemed to be some kind of left leg injury. He went up against the wall in a failed attempt to corral a triple. He was down on ground for 5 minutes, and left under assistance. (arms around 2 guys shoulders)

An inning later they said "lower back injury".

And after the game he was out with the guys celebrating the win, so I don't think he's seriously hurt

mattfeet
11-18-2012, 03:47 PM
All reports thus far are just saying back spasms. Given that his season is over, finally, Im sure he'll be just fine come ST.

paulrichjr
11-19-2012, 09:22 AM
Hamilton is just absurd, they were bewildered trying to defend against that bunt. Then he ends up on 3rd base off a grounder.

I thought the run from 1st to 3rd was just amazing. I don't think I have ever seen anyone make it to 3rd so easy on a ball hit like that. 99.9% of players would still be on 2nd base or in the dugout after being thrown out at 3rd.

Scrap Irony
11-19-2012, 11:31 AM
His speed is truly game-changing. No one in baseball uses it like he does. Capitalizing on it will be fun to watch as he moves into the leadoff spot in Cincinnati.

His agressiveness reminds me of Tim Raines early in his career. I always hated to see that guy on the basepaths because he almost always made life miserable for the Reds. Hopefully, Hamilton can do the same.

rgslone
11-19-2012, 02:08 PM
Of course, these reports just get me even more excited and impatient for Hamilton at the major league level (especially given the Stubbs/Cozart OBP disaster that was the top of the lineup last season). Still, I think a 2014 date of arrival for Hamilton is the most reasonable and realistic, and probably also in his best interest in regard to development. But, if it can be sooner I'll gladly take it.

paulrichjr
11-19-2012, 04:49 PM
As a Reds fan you really must go somewhere and watch the game from the other night and watch (I think it was called) the Futures Game from a month or so ago. It's just amazing watching the guy. What I am scared of is that it will not translate into the bigs. If it does Votto could hit .400 for 5 years straight. Can you even imagine how hard it would be to pitch to Votto with Hamilton standing on second or third....(yea third because you never know if he might just take off and steal home on the throw back to the pitcher)

Tuff Nut
11-21-2012, 11:25 PM
His speed is truly game-changing. No one in baseball uses it like he does. Capitalizing on it will be fun to watch as he moves into the leadoff spot in Cincinnati.

His agressiveness reminds me of Tim Raines early in his career. I always hated to see that guy on the basepaths because he almost always made life miserable for the Reds. Hopefully, Hamilton can do the same.
I know you're a big Reds' fan, but that last paragraph could lead one to wonder if you are wanting BH to make life miserable for the Reds. :D
I watched bits and pieces of the game........I was hoping Didi wasn't going to get thrown out, out home, in the 3rd, when Billie forced him. Dude was half way to 3rd, by the time Didi was touching it. Coach had no choice but to send him home.