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BungleBengals
08-28-2012, 01:50 PM
Everyone is talking about how good the Cardinals offense is, but I think our offense could be just as good if Dusty would change the lineup. Look the Cards offense, they have what used to be their leadoff guys batting 7th and 8th. If we did something like that our offensive production would be a lot better. Instead we have a rookie and K-king batting 1 and 2. While I like Cozart and think he is a decent batter, he also has games where he goes 0-5 and Stubbs usually has games where he goes 0-5 with 3 to 4 K's. They would do a whole lot better batting 7th and 8th where they will be pressured and they will see better pitches from a tired pitcher too. Not to mention you can have 2 speedy guys on base for a pitcher to bunt over and leave them in scoring position for Phillips or Frazier to bat in.

If we had Phillips leadoff followed by Frazier, then we have 2 guys who could get on base in front of Ludwick now and Votto later. Plus you have Bruce, Rolen, and Hanigan still to bat as the heart of the lineup. I think any change where we move Cozart and Stubbs out of the top of the order could produce the runs needed to run with high powered offenses like the Cards.

Now:
1. Phillips 2B
2. Frazier 1B
3. Ludwick LF
4. Bruce RF
5. Rolen 3B
6. Hanigan C
7. Cozart SS
8. Stubbs CF
9. Pitcher

Later:
1. Phillips 2B
2. Frazier RF/CF
3. Votto 1B
4. Ludwick LF
5. Bruce RF/CF
6. Rolen 3B
7. Cozart SS
8. Hanigan C
9. Pitcher

I moved Hanigan back to 8 here because if Cozart does get on base, you know Hanigan can bat him in.

Stray
08-28-2012, 01:55 PM
Frazier can't play CF for us, Bruce could.

1. Phillips 2B
2. Cozart SS
3. Votto 1B
4. Ludwick LF/RF
5. Frazier 3B/1B/LF
6. Bruce RF/CF
7. Rolen 3B
8. Hanigan C
9. Pitcher

When Stubbs plays you can drop him down and bump others up.

Krawhitham
08-28-2012, 02:10 PM
I moved Hanigan back to 8 here because if Cozart does get on base, you know Hanigan can bat him in.

He has 17 RBI this season, yeah he is really raking

His season average is .287
His average with runners in scoring position is .231


I'm not so sure he can bat him in

Trajinous
08-28-2012, 02:12 PM
He has 17 RBI this season, yeah he is really raking

His season average is .287
His average with runners in scoring position is .231


I'm not so sure he can bat him in

Which would make him a perfect 2-hole hitter.

Krawhitham
08-28-2012, 02:14 PM
Which would make him a perfect 2-hole hitter.

If he was not so slow I would agree, he is slow even for a catcher

BungleBengals
08-28-2012, 02:30 PM
The reason Hanigan has 17 RBIs is because no one gets on base in front of him. Rolen is too slow to bat in from second base and Frazier usually clears the bases anways. Not to mention that Hanigan gets walked a ton so they can get to the pitcher. He is slow, I will give you that, but you cannot say he sucks because he doesn't have a lot of RBIs. He is batting in the 8 hole and has a lot things going against him for him to produce a lot of RBIs.

I think he is a very disciplined batter. He is no Votto, but he knows the strike zone very well which helps him draw walks, and he does not strikeout a whole lot either.

BurgervilleBuck
08-28-2012, 02:49 PM
If he was not so slow I would agree, he is slow even for a catcher
But he gets on base more than the supposed fastest player on the team.

OldCat
08-28-2012, 05:13 PM
The reason Hanigan has 17 RBIs is because no one gets on base in front of him. Rolen is too slow to bat in from second base and Frazier usually clears the bases anways. Not to mention that Hanigan gets walked a ton so they can get to the pitcher. He is slow, I will give you that, but you cannot say he sucks because he doesn't have a lot of RBIs. He is batting in the 8 hole and has a lot things going against him for him to produce a lot of RBIs.

I think he is a very disciplined batter. He is no Votto, but he knows the strike zone very well which helps him draw walks, and he does not strikeout a whole lot either.

The question is how much of that discipline is a result of the 8 hole. When the pitcher is often of the verge of giving you an IBB to get to a guy batting .067 with no power you see a different set of pitches than you would when the guy wants to get you out to avoid seeing Joey Votto.

IamRV
08-28-2012, 06:08 PM
Since it's a given that the first 3 or four guys in the lineup will see one more AB on average each game, wouldn't the best lineup have your best 3 or 4 hitters at the top of the order? Riddle me that Dusty.

Trajinous
08-28-2012, 06:09 PM
But he gets on base more than the supposed fastest player on the team.

Exactly! Stubbs can't steal second from the dugout....

Even an average speed Hanigan can score from first off a Votto double. Stubbs can't do that while sitting on a bench.

jback76
08-28-2012, 06:53 PM
No manager is going to hit someone as slow as Hanigan any higher up in the lineup then Dusty has been. Hanigan is a good hitter right where Dusty has him, 8th. Phillips should be batting leadoff when Votto comes back, and I believe Dusty is going to make that change.

EMAW
08-28-2012, 07:08 PM
Hanigan gets walks because the pitcher is hitting behind him. If Stubbs hits 8th his OBP would be much higher. Hanigan hitting 2nd is a 6-4-3 special against ground ball pitchers. If Dusty had Rickey Henderson in his prime and had him leading off the Baker Haters would be critical of the move.

texasdave
08-28-2012, 07:23 PM
It is simply untrue that Ryan Hanigan's on-base percentage is a by-product of batting 8th in the lineup and that his OBP is so high because he walks a lot in front of the pitcher. Hanigan's OBP is .380 this year. It is .373 for his career. Explain this to me then. Why aren't other 8-hole hitters producing similar OBP numbers? Mesoraco's OBP in the 8 hole is .299. Wilson Valdez has almost 600 career at-bats in the 8 spot and his OBP there is .296. (I am confused by the number of at-bats he has in the 8 spot too. He is not a catcher. It has me non-plussed.) The OBP for all N.L. hitters who have hit 8th this season is .307. And that just happens to be lowest OBP for any spot in the lineup aside from 9th, the domain of pitchers.
The fact is that Ryan Hanigan is a professional hitter. He almost always has a professional at-bat. If you take him out of the 8-hole, he is still gonna get on base regularly.

IamRV
08-28-2012, 07:36 PM
It is simply untrue that Ryan Hanigan's on-base percentage is a by-product of batting 8th in the lineup and that his OBP is so high because he walks a lot in front of the pitcher. Hanigan's OBP is .380 this year. It is .373 for his career. Explain this to me then. Why aren't other 8-hole hitters producing similar OBP numbers? Mesoraco's OBP in the 8 hole is .299. Wilson Valdez has almost 600 career at-bats in the 8 spot and his OBP there is .296. (I am confused by the number of at-bats he has in the 8 spot too. He is not a catcher. It has me non-plussed.) The OBP for all N.L. hitters who have hit 8th this season is .307. And that just happens to be lowest OBP for any spot in the lineup aside from 9th, the domain of pitchers.
The fact is that Ryan Hanigan is a professional hitter. He almost always has a professional at-bat. If you take him out of the 8-hole, he is still gonna get on base regularly.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Krawhitham
08-28-2012, 07:38 PM
But he gets on base more than the supposed fastest player on the team.

and when Votto hits his double he will be sitting on 3rd when anyone else would have scored. It will take and extra hit it get a run scored

IamRV
08-28-2012, 07:46 PM
2B Phillips
1B Votto
3B Frazier
LF Ludwick
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
C Hanoraco
Pitcher
SS Cozart

EMAW
08-28-2012, 08:12 PM
Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

I guess it is impossible for us to know until next season when you are managing the Reds and Dusty is in Anaheim

Tuff Nut
08-28-2012, 09:41 PM
Frazier can't play CF for us,
Why not? I'd rather his bat be in the lineup than Drew's, and I'd agrue he could play it as well as Valdez. Give Stubbs a couple of games against lefties, and when Frazier is filling in elsewhere. Anything to get Todd his PT(and Stubbs less) when Joey returns.

Ironman92
08-28-2012, 10:53 PM
Hanigan gets walks because the pitcher is hitting behind him. If Stubbs hits 8th his OBP would be much higher. Hanigan hitting 2nd is a 6-4-3 special against ground ball pitchers. If Dusty had Rickey Henderson in his prime and had him leading off the Baker Haters would be critical of the move.

If Stubbs hit 8th he'd be forced to catch.

CALIREDSFAN72
08-29-2012, 12:09 AM
Make this happen Walt!

1 - Hamilton CF (MOVE HIM TO CENTER AND BRING HIM UP!!!)
2 - BP 2B
3 - Votto - 1B
4 - Ludwick/Frazier - LF
5 - Frazier/Rolen - 3B
6 - Bruce - RF
7 - Hanigan - C
8 - Cozart - SS
9 - Leake - P (Dude can hit for a pitcher!)

PumpFak3First
08-29-2012, 12:16 AM
and when Votto hits his double he will be sitting on 3rd when anyone else would have scored. It will take and extra hit it get a run scored

Don't use logic

PumpFak3First
08-29-2012, 12:18 AM
Make this happen Walt!

1 - Hamilton CF (MOVE HIM TO CENTER AND BRING HIM UP!!!)
2 - BP 2B
3 - Votto - 1B
4 - Ludwick/Frazier - LF
5 - Frazier/Rolen - 3B
6 - Bruce - RF
7 - Hanigan - C
8 - Cozart - SS
9 - Leake - P (Dude can hit for a pitcher!)

Hamilton won't be brought up to play center until he learns to play the position. Why do people think you can plug any old person into CF? It's an entirely different position. Arm strength is a problem with Hamilton. You can't have a weak gun in CF. Plus that kid is a ways away from playing legit starting time. Might bring him up for playoff push because when you need someone to steal, call that speedsters number.

EMAW
08-29-2012, 12:28 AM
As long as this team gets rid of the crappy manager that is on the verge of leading them to their second division title in three seasons they will be o.k.

Stray
08-29-2012, 12:28 AM
Why not? I'd rather his bat be in the lineup than Drew's, and I'd agrue he could play it as well as Valdez. Give Stubbs a couple of games against lefties, and when Frazier is filling in elsewhere. Anything to get Todd his PT(and Stubbs less) when Joey returns.

You can get Frazier's bat in the lineup easily without playing him in CF. Votto will get days off, Rolen will get days off, Ludwick will get days off, Bruce can play CF when a ground ball pitcher is going, etc.

There's no reason for Frazier to ever be there because Bruce is a better option at that same position.

texasdave
08-29-2012, 08:17 AM
and when Votto hits his double he will be sitting on 3rd when anyone else would have scored. It will take and extra hit it get a run scored

Of course this is not true. But for the sake of discussion let's just assume it is. Let's see what happens.

Hanigan has a .380 OPB. He will reach base 38 out of 100 times.
Stubbs has a .291 OPB. He will reach base 29 out of 100 times.

Let's assume Joey Votto hits a double every time someone is standing on first.
Let's further assume that Drew Stubbs scores every time and Ryan Hanigan ends up on third every time.

To help Drew along we will also give Joey Votto a double the nine extra times for each of the nine times he is sitting on the pines while Ryan is standing on first. Just to be fair.

Using the 2011 run-expectancy matrix listed here, how many runs should each scenario be expected to produce? http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/run_expectancy_matrix_2011_is_1969_1992/

Using these assumptions, giving Stubbs every advantage, Drew's scenario will score about .4 more total runs.


Stubbs
1st to Home 29 1.671 48.459
Out 9 0.311 2.799
Total 51.258

Hanigan
1st to 3rd 38 1.338 50.844
Total 50.844


Now let's figure out what will really happen based on 2012 statistics. Because, believe it or not, Drew Stubbs does not score from first on every double. In 2012, he scores 58% of the time (7 out of 12). And Ryan Hanigan does score from first on a double now and then, 33% of the time (1 out of 3).

Using data based upon what has actually happened, instead of weighing every possible assumption in Stubbs' favor yields a quite different result. Now the Hanigan scenario would yield about 7.9 additional runs.


Stubbs
1st to Home 17 1.671 28.407
1st to 3rd 12 1.338 16.056
Out 9 0.311 2.799
Total 47.262

Hanigan

1st to Home 13 1.671 21.723
1st to 3rd 25 1.338 33.45
Total 55.173


Now let's look at a third scenario. Let's assume the people out there that say Ryan Hanigan will get on base less often if he bats second are correct. Let's drop his OBP by a more-than-generous 50 points and assume his OBP in the two hole is just .330. What happens then?



Stubbs
1st to Home 17 1.671 28.407
1st to 3rd 12 1.338 16.056
Out 4 0.311 2.799
Total 45.707

Hanigan

1st to Home 11 1.671 18.381
1st to 3rd 22 1.338 29.436
Total 47.817


Even assuming Hanigan's OBP drops all the way down to .330 when batting second, his scenario will produce a total of about 2.1 more runs total.

jback76
08-29-2012, 09:01 AM
Even with all your numbers texasdave are you really in favor of Hanigan batting second? I think you would still want someone who you could move along the bases a little easier. As soon as people started actually seeing the bases getting clogged with Hanny, Dusty haters would have a field day with that as well.

texasdave
08-29-2012, 09:04 AM
Even with all your numbers texasdave are you really in favor of Hanigan batting second? I think you would still want someone who you could move along the bases a little easier. As soon as people started actually seeing the bases getting clogged with Hanny, Dusty haters would have a field day with that as well.

You can't clog the bases if you don't get on. If the net result is more runs scored, I could live with a little base-clogging.

Biff Pocoroba
08-29-2012, 10:41 AM
Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier/Rolen
Stubbs
Hanigan

IamRV
08-29-2012, 01:14 PM
Not necessarily advocating Hanigan batting second but you can do something else with him there as opposed to Stubbs which is hit and run.

Who Dey Time
08-29-2012, 01:24 PM
Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier/Rolen
Stubbs
Hanigan

I'm guessing this will be Saturday's lineup if Votto is activated.

OldCat
08-29-2012, 03:39 PM
Even assuming Hanigan's OBP drops all the way down to .330 when batting second, his scenario will produce a total of about 2.1 more runs total.


Two runs in a season? Wow, sign me up!

What does it look like when Hanigan is resting 2 out of 5 days, do we shuffle everything around then?

texasdave
08-29-2012, 03:44 PM
NM.

rgslone
08-30-2012, 12:48 PM
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Ludwig/Frazier
Fraizer/Rolen
Stubbs/Heisey
Cozart
Pitcher
Hannigan

Ironman92
08-30-2012, 09:44 PM
Stubbs can't clog the bases for two reasons...one he's fast and the other is the same reason I haven't clogged the bases this year.

Ironman92
08-30-2012, 09:46 PM
I'm guessing this will be Saturday's lineup if Votto is activated.

I'll be Stubbs bats 2nd and Cozy 7th.

I will bet you two excellent condition 1986 Dusty Baker Topps cards.