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mgbrown66
09-12-2012, 07:12 PM
Lord help us if the Phillies sneak in and grab the last wildcard spot. They will be an eXtemely tough out for anyone, especially the Reds.

Maker_84
09-12-2012, 07:49 PM
agreed, but unfortunately we cant control how bad the dodgers, pirates and cards have been playing

WDE
09-12-2012, 07:51 PM
Brewers as well. Very dangerous 2 teams

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 07:54 PM
Philadelphia has a 4% playoff chance right now its amazing how many people think they have a real shot at jumping so many teams and getting in.

Maker_84
09-12-2012, 08:08 PM
only 3 games back with about 3 weeks to go

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 08:36 PM
only 3 games back with about 3 weeks to go

If the Cardinals lose they will be 3 out and will get a bump in percentage but the Cardinals have a far easier schedule if they 2-2 or better in LA starting tomorrow they will be in perfect position with their next 9 against Houston, Chicago, Houston who are the worst 2 teams in the game.

If the Cardinals choke the Phillies will still need the Dodgers, D-Backs, Pirates and Brewers all to not keep pace as well. But I would love to see the Cardinals blow it to one of them preferably the Dodgers or Pirates.

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 08:54 PM
Now the Phillies are 3 back, they better pull for the Diamondbacks tonight since if the Dodgers win they will not be able to pick up ground regardless of win the Cards vs Dodgers game tomorrow since they would be tied.

R_Webb18
09-12-2012, 08:56 PM
Philadelphia has a 4% playoff chance right now its amazing how many people think they have a real shot at jumping so many teams and getting in.

its b/c the teams in front are not just losing here and there there losing like every game while they win like every game

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 09:04 PM
its b/c the teams in front are not just losing here and there there losing like every game while they win like every game

Its not going to be that way forever, one of the top two WC teams are going to win each of the next 4 nights. Plus its just externally hard to get past multiple teams in the standings without going on a historic run.

arkimadee
09-12-2012, 09:35 PM
At this point I'd much rather play the Cards than the Phillies. Chances are they will not be our problem until the second round unless Washington starts losing games which they have shown no signs of doing.

Ironman92
09-12-2012, 10:28 PM
If the Cardinals lose they will be 3 out and will get a bump in percentage but the Cardinals have a far easier schedule if they 2-2 or better in LA starting tomorrow they will be in perfect position with their next 9 against Houston, Chicago, Houston who are the worst 2 teams in the game.

If the Cardinals choke the Phillies will still need the Dodgers, D-Backs, Pirates and Brewers all to not keep pace as well. But I would love to see the Cardinals blow it to one of them preferably the Dodgers or Pirates.

Schedule doesn't matter as much as how well you are playing....Cards got swept by the Padres and Phillies are charging hard and just beat Josh Johnson.

I'm not buying the have only a 4% chance of going 15-4 while the Cards go 11-8 or worse, Dodgers 12-8 or worse, Pirates 13-7 or worse....and Brewers 14-5 or worse.

Not buying the math....the most difficult is the Phillies end of it.

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 10:32 PM
Schedule doesn't matter as much as how well you are playing....Cards got swept by the Padres and Phillies are charging hard and just beat Josh Johnson.

I'm not buying the have only a 4% chance of going 15-4 while the Cards go 11-8 or worse, Dodgers 12-8 or worse, Pirates 13-7 or worse....and Brewers 14-5 or worse.

Not buying the math....the most difficult is the Phillies end of it.

The schedule always matters no matter how bad you're playing if you get 9 games in a row with the Astros and Cubs you will get healthy quick.

Ironman92
09-12-2012, 10:39 PM
The schedule always matters no matter how bad you're playing if you get 9 games in a row with the Astros and Cubs you will get healthy quick.

The same Astros that just took 2 of 3 from the Reds....in Cincy.

We just need to enjoy these next 20 days of baseball....every night counts

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 10:48 PM
The same Astros that just took 2 of 3 from the Reds....in Cincy.

We just need to enjoy these next 20 days of baseball....every night counts

Them playing the Reds have nothing to do with the Cardinals, the last time they seen Houston they took all 3 games by a score of 24-7.

Ironman92
09-12-2012, 11:01 PM
Them playing the Reds have nothing to do with the Cardinals, the last time they seen Houston they took all 3 games by a score of 24-7.

And the last time has nothing to do with the next time.

This is going to be exciting....you post way more about this than anyone. I'm checking the scores often on every game that involves the Braves, Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates and Dbacks. If you already know it just can't be the Brewers and Phillies then don't update us on them.

Enjoy it....don't assume the Braves and Cards are locks.

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 11:28 PM
If the Cardinals are alone in the WC lead when they leave LA its over

Ironman92
09-12-2012, 11:46 PM
If the Cardinals are alone in the WC lead when they leave LA its over

So if they have a 1 game lead over the Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers with a dozen games left it's over? Lol

They'll be the favorites but this .494 winning % versus the .542 winning % is not much of a deal compared to how you are playing......I guess it would be like the Padres being under .494 winning % sweeping the over .540 Cardinals in a series.....but that is just to unlikely to actually happen.

HometownHero
09-12-2012, 11:58 PM
So if they have a 1 game lead over the Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers with a dozen games left it's over? Lol

They'll be the favorites but this .494 winning % versus the .542 winning % is not much of a deal compared to how you are playing......I guess it would be like the Padres being under .494 winning % sweeping the over .540 Cardinals in a series.....but that is just to unlikely to actually happen.

With the last 15 games being Houston, Cubs, Houston, Nats and Reds with the later two teams resting guys and not playing too hard yes it will be over.

The Padres have been one of the hottest teams in Baseball going 35-21 in their last 56 after winning just 34 over their first 88 games, the Astros and Cubs aren't anywhere close to that had as the two worst teams in the majors.

While the Cards are getting those 9 games the Phillies are getting the Mets on the road which they should win some in and then the Braves and Nats at home both wanting to clinch a playoffs spot in the Phillies park after their run over the Division.

Ironman92
09-13-2012, 05:49 AM
Lol....I know the Padres are hot, hence my example. You keep harping on "who" they play and their winning percentage the rest of the way. And I still say the games are not predictable....the cruddiest team in baseball just took 2 out of 3 from one of the best at their place....but you are so sure of the Cardinals holding a 1 game lead after the Dodgers series...over my 3 team scenario because you looked ahead at the schedule? Lol

I'm done with this.....I get your point and agree the Braves and Cardinals are easily the teams to beat....but well, my words are meaningless.

HometownHero
09-13-2012, 06:39 AM
Lol....I know the Padres are hot, hence my example. You keep harping on "who" they play and their winning percentage the rest of the way. And I still say the games are not predictable....the cruddiest team in baseball just took 2 out of 3 from one of the best at their place....but you are so sure of the Cardinals holding a 1 game lead after the Dodgers series...over my 3 team scenario because you looked ahead at the schedule? Lol

I'm done with this.....I get your point and agree the Braves and Cardinals are easily the teams to beat....but well, my words are meaningless.

So because a white hot Padres team beat the Cardinals 3 in a row at home it somehow means the two worst teams who are ice cold unless they play each other and one wins by default is going to step up and roll the Cardinals over 9 games with the playoffs on the line?


The Phillies are 26-32 against their remaining schedule while the Cardinals are 24-22 but you are so sure these teams are going to lose to the Phillies to the tune of 15-4 in their last 19 despite just 6 homes games both to Nats and Braves all while those other teams jump up and beat the Cardinals at a high rate.

HometownHero
09-13-2012, 07:09 AM
Houston is 13-55 in their last 68 games .191 with 2 of those wins to the Cubs and the Cubs are 13-29 over their last 42 .309 with 4 of those wins coming to Houston and 3 more to the free falling Pirates.

These two teams as constructed are literally two of the worst major league teams to be put on the field and the Cubs just got worse with Anthony Rizzo getting hurt in a collision in Houston.

The Cubs are 7-5 vs Houston this year if you drop those games their records would be.

49-82 .374 Cubs
40-91 .305 Astros

Houston started off 22-23 in the first 45 games and have gone 23-75 .235 since.

jback76
09-13-2012, 08:34 AM
There will be 2 wild card teams, the Braves and someone else. Let's let those other teams battle it out, and then play Atlanta. The winner of the WC will probably be playing Washinton. A more realistic problem for the Reds is facing the Giants starting pitching and then the Nationals pitching. The way the Reds have been hitting that will be a big challenge.

tedies
09-13-2012, 09:51 AM
Philadelphia has a 4% playoff chance right now its amazing how many people think they have a real shot at jumping so many teams and getting in.

Where did you get this? It is WAY more than that... They have 3 weeks to gain 3 games. They are red hot and all the teams ahead of them are stone cold. I love when people just make up % as they deem fit :laugh:

webbbj
09-13-2012, 09:53 AM
2 things I would find hilarious. The cards blowing their playoff chances in an epic collapse. And the Pirates falling under .500 for about the 20th ear in a row.

tedies
09-13-2012, 09:53 AM
There will be 2 wild card teams, the Braves and someone else. Let's let those other teams battle it out, and then play Atlanta. The winner of the WC will probably be playing Washinton. A more realistic problem for the Reds is facing the Giants starting pitching and then the Nationals pitching. The way the Reds have been hitting that will be a big challenge.

:thumbup: We won't likely see any wild card team unless we get to the NLCS(and that team somehow takes down the Nats) so lets worry about the Giants first a foremost

goreds2
09-13-2012, 11:56 AM
:thumbup: We won't likely see any wild card team unless we get to the NLCS(and that team somehow takes down the Nats) so lets worry about the Giants first a foremost UGH, if we play the Giants 1st round, those Saturday and Sunday games may not start until 10pm est. due to all the other games going on. (Hope I am wrong)

Phoenix2
09-13-2012, 12:07 PM
I agree that the Phillies are the most dangerous for the Reds. I don't know whether the Reds don't match up well, are intimidated or what. A hot Phillies team with that rotation would be the worst possible playoff matchup. At this point in the season I find myself rooting against the Phillies and for the Pirates to finish over .500.

BluegrassRedleg
09-13-2012, 01:56 PM
Where did you get this? It is WAY more than that... They have 3 weeks to gain 3 games. They are red hot and all the teams ahead of them are stone cold. I love when people just make up % as they deem fit :laugh:

Nothing is impossible until the math says otherwise, but as good as they've been lately, it took them a month to get from 8 to 3. A lot of things have to go right for them to make up 3 more in 3 weeks with so many other teams in there, too.

Fortunately for the Phils, they've got 4 against the Astros coming up.

BluegrassRedleg
09-13-2012, 01:57 PM
:thumbup: We won't likely see any wild card team unless we get to the NLCS(and that team somehow takes down the Nats) so lets worry about the Giants first a foremost

Great point.

HometownHero
09-13-2012, 02:37 PM
Where did you get this? It is WAY more than that... They have 3 weeks to gain 3 games. They are red hot and all the teams ahead of them are stone cold. I love when people just make up % as they deem fit :laugh:

Here
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

Or here
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2012&i=1

Its blows my mind how people don't understand how hard it is jump multiple teams for 3 back with no H2H games and just 6 home games which all happen to be the best two teams in their Division the same time the Cardinals are getting the Cubs and Astros.

BluegrassRedleg
09-13-2012, 02:54 PM
Interesting to see those percentages. MIL has a better chance (7) than PHI (5).

HometownHero
09-13-2012, 03:50 PM
Interesting to see those percentages. MIL has a better chance (7) than PHI (5).

9 Home games to just 6 for the Phillies with one of the leagues best home records and also have 3 with the Pirates so they can push one of the WC teams back on their own.

webbbj
09-13-2012, 04:15 PM
crazy 18 teams can claim they are still in the race this late into the season. 18 teams 4 GB or less at this point.

Maker_84
09-13-2012, 06:34 PM
god if there was one time it would be nice to see the Astros play good it would be right now!! Come on Houston!!

Ironman92
09-13-2012, 10:03 PM
I took a lot of time....checked every schedule and projected matchups.

The final series will be great with the Reds potentially killing the Cardinals playoff chances....but in doing so maybe sneaking in Philly...what do they do? Rest and set up the rotation.

Final Records (need not bother playing)

Nats 99-63
Reds 97-65
Giants 91-71

Braves 90-72
Cardinals 86-76

Phillies 85-77
Dodgers 85-77
Brewers 85-77
Pirates 83-79
Dbacks 83-79

AL

Rangers 96-66
Orioles 91-71

WC A's 94-68
Yankees 90-72

White Sox and Tigers tie at 88-74 and Tigers win the 1 game playoff.

HometownHero
09-13-2012, 10:20 PM
So after spending all this time fighting it with me you now basically agree with me that if the Cards are alone in first when they leave LA they will win the WC?

Tuff Nut
09-13-2012, 10:30 PM
Cards and dodgers are both struggling, but they play each other for 4. One or the other must sweep, to get some distance, from the others. A split, and the others have the opportunity to move up, and put more pressure on the front runners. The Phillies just got healthy, offensively, and I for one, would not relish playing them, unless we went with a 3 man rotation. The Brewers have won something like 18 of their last 22. The WC is FAR from 'wrapped up'.

Ironman92
09-13-2012, 10:41 PM
So after spending all this time fighting it with me you now basically agree with me that if the Cards are alone in first when they leave LA they will win the WC?

I've agreed on the favorites all along....the same teams you feel will make it. But ummm.....I um, can't accurately predict games for 9 teams for 18 games. I can look at everything you have and GUESS but that's it.

Until the Cards or Dodgers get hot OR the Phillies/Brewers lose a couple games they probably shouldn't it's game on.....when THAT happens and the Cards/Dodgers are up 5 games with 10 left....I'm then...where you're at now.

If the Pirates went trending down the mountain....I'd like their chances.

HometownHero
09-13-2012, 10:52 PM
When the Dodgers and Cardinals play each other teams can pick up only limited ground even in sweeping their series. Everyone is forced to win 4 in a row just to get 2 games if the Cardinals split in their last road test of the season.

If the Dodgers win tonight everyone off gets a .5 closer and Phillies have a shot at a full game, but it then makes tomorrows game must wins for everybody because there is no way to pick up ground when the two are tied since one will win by default.

LawmanRich
09-14-2012, 03:54 AM
Philadelphia has a 4% playoff chance right now its amazing how many people think they have a real shot at jumping so many teams and getting in.

The way the rest of the teams involved are playing, it's not that wild of an idea. The Phils are the only team that really worries me.

HometownHero
09-14-2012, 04:41 AM
The way the rest of the teams involved are playing, it's not that wild of an idea. The Phils are the only team that really worries me.

I don't want to play them either but I don't want any part of the Cardinals either if Carpenter comes back, they have the bats if hot to wreck anyone pitching.

Philadelphia has backed themselves into a corner again losing game one in Houston. Now they have to win all 3 games remaining in Houston before heading to NY to face R.A. Dickey, Matt Harvey and Jon Niese who can screw up a order when facing those 3 different styles or guys. The Mets are 10-5 vs the Phillies this year and 6-2 in those 3 guys starts win one of the losses a close 3-2 game.

Then if that wasn't enough pitching to see they then go home and get the Braves and Nats who are 1st and 4th in the NL in ERA, before going to Miami where they are 2-4 with a 1-0 win and then to Washington to see they Nats one last time but that series may not mean anything by then.