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OGB
09-13-2012, 08:09 PM
The following are Home/Road splits for the Reds starters. Assuming the Reds will be traveling for 2 games and then home for 3, how should the rotation be set? Cueto is the obvious #1, and Arroyo and Latos both look like competent 2's, but with his numbers the way they are, don't you have to let Bailey pitch game 2 on the road?


ERA WHIP K/BB HRs Starts

Cueto 2.80/2.61, 1.096/1.198, 5.36/2.86, 8/4, 13/16
Latos 3.53/4.00, 1.185/1.222, 2.51/3.13, 17/7, 17/12
Arroyo 4.13/3.34, 1.431/1.029, 2.94/4.33, 9/14, 12/16
Bailey 5.05/2.75, 1.532/1.109, 2.81/3.29, 19/5, 16/13
Leake 5.54/3.74, 1.426/1.286, 3.87/2.57, 17/8, 16/12

My playoff rotation would be Cueto, Bailey, Latos, Arroyo.

Maker_84
09-13-2012, 08:11 PM
agreed with the rotation, but does Baker actually do that??

BluegrassRedleg
09-13-2012, 08:49 PM
Don't know if I completely trust Homer to do that, and I'm about 99.9% sure Dusty would never do it, but those stats sure seem to suggest it could be a good idea. I think they'd lean more toward Arroyo, which may also be good.

The Rage
09-13-2012, 09:16 PM
My guess the divisional series: Cueto,Latos,Arroyo,Bailey
My guess if they advance to the NLCS:
If Washington: Cueto,Bailey,Latos,Arroyo
If Atlanta,St.Louis,Philly ete: same as divisional series

Bailey shouldn't probably pitch in the playoffs with the rotation but Bailey is Dusty's pet ala Stubbs and has outpitched Mike Leake recently.

smixsell
09-13-2012, 09:41 PM
If curent form holds then Latos is my #1 no matter who we face.

Tuff Nut
09-13-2012, 10:34 PM
IMHO, I hope they go with a 3 man rotation. Cueto, Latos, and Arroyo. In a 7 game series, I would prefer any of these 3 being the #1, and pitching 3 games(if needed), than having to rely on Bailey or Leake, to win a deciding game.

The Rage
09-14-2012, 01:04 AM
IMHO, I hope they go with a 3 man rotation. Cueto, Latos, and Arroyo. In a 7 game series, I would prefer any of these 3 being the #1, and pitching 3 games(if needed), than having to rely on Bailey or Leake, to win a deciding game.

They have to go with 4 because the off day has been eliminated. By the NLCS, it will be required.

OGB
09-14-2012, 01:08 AM
IMHO, I hope they go with a 3 man rotation. Cueto, Latos, and Arroyo. In a 7 game series, I would prefer any of these 3 being the #1, and pitching 3 games(if needed), than having to rely on Bailey or Leake, to win a deciding game.

I feel confident in Homer on the road. I'd certainly prefer to get as many starts out of Bbronson and Latos as possible, though, because I ddon't have as many concerns about innings totals with them.

HometownHero
09-14-2012, 05:44 AM
Still POed about having the first two games in the DS on the road, if they were at home like normal years it would set us up perfectly.

Biff Pocoroba
09-14-2012, 09:54 AM
Agree Hometown Hero. I hate the notion that after our great regular season, we could be starting out the playoffs in San Francisco against Matt Cain.

Carin4Narron
09-14-2012, 10:26 AM
The following are Home/Road splits for the Reds starters. Assuming the Reds will be traveling for 2 games and then home for 3, how should the rotation be set? Cueto is the obvious #1, and Arroyo and Latos both look like competent 2's, but with his numbers the way they are, don't you have to let Bailey pitch game 2 on the road?


ERA WHIP K/BB HRs Starts

Cueto 2.80/2.61, 1.096/1.198, 5.36/2.86, 8/4, 13/16
Latos 3.53/4.00, 1.185/1.222, 2.51/3.13, 17/7, 17/12
Arroyo 4.13/3.34, 1.431/1.029, 2.94/4.33, 9/14, 12/16
Bailey 5.05/2.75, 1.532/1.109, 2.81/3.29, 19/5, 16/13
Leake 5.54/3.74, 1.426/1.286, 3.87/2.57, 17/8, 16/12

My playoff rotation would be Cueto, Bailey, Latos, Arroyo.

Don't assume. You know what happens when you assume. You are assuming the Reds get the number one seed and that's probably not the case. Washington mostly likely will get the wildcard game winner. The Reds probably open at home with 2 games with SF. Your playoff rotation is nuts. Bailey for a game 2 is insane. You are asking for a 1-1 split and the pressure is on going to SF. Why not go for the throat with the big 3 in Cueto,Latos, and Arroyo?

justincredible
09-14-2012, 10:51 AM
Don't assume. You know what happens when you assume. You are assuming the Reds get the number one seed and that's probably not the case. Washington mostly likely will get the wildcard game winner. The Reds probably open at home with 2 games with SF. Your playoff rotation is nuts. Bailey for a game 2 is insane. You are asking for a 1-1 split and the pressure is on going to SF. Why not go for the throat with the big 3 in Cueto,Latos, and Arroyo?

Unless the Reds fall to a #3 seed they will open with 2 games on the road. I love the addition of the 2nd wildcard but this is completely asinine.


For the 2012 Postseason only, the five-game Division Series will begin with two home games for lower seeds, followed by up to three home games for higher seeds. This one-year change, which eliminates a travel day prior to a decisive Game Five of the Division Series, was necessary because the 2012 regular season schedule was established before the agreement on the new Postseason format was reached. Next year, the Division Series will return to the 2-2-1 format used in previous years.

Carin4Narron
09-14-2012, 11:24 AM
Unless the Reds fall to a #3 seed they will open with 2 games on the road. I love the addition of the 2nd wildcard but this is completely asinine.

I stand corrected. I still wouldn't use Homer in Game 2 although he has improved a lot this year.

OGB
09-14-2012, 01:36 PM
I stand corrected. I still wouldn't use Homer in Game 2 although he has improved a lot this year.

So you pitch him at home where he's been abysmal at times? I don't follow your logic. You're going to need four starters provided it goes four games.

buffalo
09-14-2012, 03:45 PM
Don't assume. You know what happens when you assume. You are assuming the Reds get the number one seed and that's probably not the case. Washington mostly likely will get the wildcard game winner. The Reds probably open at home with 2 games with SF. Your playoff rotation is nuts. Bailey for a game 2 is insane. You are asking for a 1-1 split and the pressure is on going to SF. Why not go for the throat with the big 3 in Cueto,Latos, and Arroyo?

This is incorrect. Even if Reds play Giants in division series, Reds will open at SF, not at home.

swaisuc
09-14-2012, 03:55 PM
I think I want Latos pitching on the west coast above all else. It works just as well to start Cueto/Latos, which is the most logical anyway.

Trajinous
09-14-2012, 04:27 PM
I think I want Latos pitching on the west coast above all else. It works just as well to start Cueto/Latos, which is the most logical anyway.

I agree. Latos did pretty good pitching in southern Cal for a few years. Also has a 1.85 ERA w/ .195 opp AVG in 35 innings. He's the obvious choice.

I don't mind the new format. As long as the Reds split, they have 3 chances at home to win 2 out of 3. It also guarantees the team with home field advantage clinches in front of the home crowd which is great. Sounds good to me.

JayBruceFan
09-14-2012, 04:37 PM
Looking at these projected rotations make me wish that we had a strong left handed starter to balance things out a bit

buffalo
09-14-2012, 04:43 PM
Latos has a great history against Giants, in last 3 years, his stats against Giants are

2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 58 INN, 45K, 10 BB, .222 BAA


His numbers in AT&T park are even better:

1.85 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 34 INN, 29K, 5 BB, .192 BAA

Trajinous
09-14-2012, 07:00 PM
Latos has a great history against Giants, in last 3 years, his stats against Giants are

2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 58 INN, 45K, 10 BB, .222 BAA


His numbers in AT&T park are even better:

1.85 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 34 INN, 29K, 5 BB, .192 BAA

Ha, I forgot to say "at ATT park"

Carin4Narron
09-14-2012, 07:51 PM
So you pitch him at home where he's been abysmal at times? I don't follow your logic. You're going to need four starters provided it goes four games.

Isn't there a day off between games 2 and 3? Why not go for the throat and use your strongest pitchers Cueto,Arroyo, and Latos? And use Homer in middle relief where he did well in the 2010 playoffs.

R_Webb18
09-14-2012, 08:39 PM
of couse you don't trust bailey with game 2. you just have to hope with the weather cooling down he can pitch fine at home