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corkedbat
10-08-2012, 04:16 PM
Who's next?

I'd like to see one or both of Bailey and Latos extended? Anyone else?

mattfeet
10-08-2012, 04:18 PM
Id agree with both of those. I could also see Ludwick getting a 2 or 3yr deal.

corkedbat
10-08-2012, 04:28 PM
Id agree with both of those. I could also see Ludwick getting a 2 or 3yr deal.

I'd like to have Ludwick back for a couple of year's but if he hits the open market, I'm afraid his value will inflate. After Hamilton and maybe Swisher, there's not much in the way of offense or OFers out there. I think the best hope might be to approach him within days of the Reds final postseason game and hope he's feeling charitable toward the Reds/Jocketty.

Benihana
10-08-2012, 04:45 PM
Bailey Latos Ludwick in that order. Wouldn't go more than 2 years (or $10-$12MM) with Ludwick.

If Bailey can perform in the postseason like he has the rest of the year, he may finally be the pitcher we always hoped he could be, and I'd get him locked up for the next 3 years. Latos will likely be an even better pitcher but we have more time with him already and his maturity issues could pose a risk under a long term deal. Still though, wouldn't mind keeping him in Cincy for the better part of the next decade. We know he'll be here at least the next three years.

Leake might be worth considering if we could "buy low" here, although he seems more replaceable- especially with Cingrani and Corcino knocking on the door.

RedsManRick
10-08-2012, 05:06 PM
Latos.

I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.

If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?

Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?


IP K% BB% HR/9 FIP xFIP ERA
2010 66 19.4 7.6 1.23 4.22 3.90 3.95
2011 186 21.0 6.6 1.31 4.04 3.67 4.55
2012 198 19.8 6.6 1.13 3.95 3.97 3.72

I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?

The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?

Benihana
10-08-2012, 05:48 PM
Latos.

I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.

If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?

Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?


IP K% BB% HR/9 FIP xFIP ERA
2010 66 19.4 7.6 1.23 4.22 3.90 3.95
2011 186 21.0 6.6 1.31 4.04 3.67 4.55
2012 198 19.8 6.6 1.13 3.95 3.97 3.72

I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?

The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?

To be clear, I wouldn't give Bailey a lot. I'd take him for less than we extended Johnny Cueto for. If he wants Cueto's money or more, I'd pass, especially given his inconsistency and injury risk.

I love Latos. But given his maturity issues, I worry about what he might do/turn into if suddenly given 5+ years and $50MM of security.

The Reds got it exactly right in deciding who to lock up over the long term. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Phillips are the four best people to commit several years and several (hundred) million dollars to. With these next cast of characters, there is certainly more to debate.

Superdude
10-08-2012, 07:16 PM
To be clear, I wouldn't give Bailey a lot. I'd take him for less than we extended Johnny Cueto for. If he wants Cueto's money or more, I'd pass, especially given his inconsistency and injury risk.

I love Latos. But given his maturity issues, I worry about what he might do/turn into if suddenly given 5+ years and $50MM of security.

The Reds got it exactly right in deciding who to lock up over the long term. Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Phillips are the four best people to commit several years and several (hundred) million dollars to. With these next cast of characters, there is certainly more to debate.

Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.

Scrap Irony
10-08-2012, 07:18 PM
Latos































Bailey
























































Ludwick

The Operator
10-08-2012, 07:18 PM
Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.I'm with you there. Latos obviously has a temper but he's nowhere near a Carlos Zambrano type. And him jumping up saying "Me, me!" when Cueto went down earned him a ton of respect from me.

I think you absolutely lock Latos up and if the right deal can be done I'd have no problem locking up homer.

PuffyPig
10-08-2012, 07:20 PM
Since the Reds are on abudget, it's unlikely we should try and afford Bailey on a long term deal. It's a question of managing our budget.

Better to cash in this year and trade him for some young talent. If he has a decent playoff, he'll bring very good value. We can likely get a cheaper, younger replacement in the deal.

Bailey's main difference this year is health. I have little interest in paying him $10M+ to cover some FA years.

It may depend on whether the Reds want to make Chapman a stater. And if Bailey will sign a 3 year plus an option deal (our option), I'd considir that deal if it didn't include a no trade clause. Wew could then flip him after next year if uit made sense and we had a young pitcher to take his place.

Scrap Irony
10-08-2012, 07:27 PM
Since the Reds are on abudget, it's unlikely we should try and afford Bailey on a long term deal. It's a question of managing our budget.

I'd argue that the money given to Madson, Massett, and Bray would more than cover the LTC cash of Latos and Bailey this season.

(Having said that, I understand fully well that money may have already been spent. I am assuming the playoff monies will off-set much of the budget concerns.)

klw
10-08-2012, 07:44 PM
Well when it comes to budget setting don't forget the extra national tv money is 25 to 30 million per year, IIRC.

Discussed here I think:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98116&highlight=deal+espn

RedsMan3203
10-08-2012, 07:48 PM
I wouldn't have any issues getting Latos locked up.... This year or next....

Him and Dallas seem to love the Cincinnati area...

Degenerate39
10-08-2012, 08:09 PM
I wouldn't have any issues getting Latos locked up.... This year or next....

Him and Dallas seem to love the Cincinnati area...

It might cost more to lock up Dallas than Mat

AmarilloRed
10-08-2012, 08:16 PM
Broxton and Rolen will be entering FA after the year-that's about 12 million in payflex if not signed. The question is-how much will the arbitration raises be and how much will the Reds raise payroll?

Benihana
10-08-2012, 08:19 PM
Maturity issues is kind of stretching things isn't it? I don't know the guy, but outside of some tattoos and a fiery attitude, he seems pretty down to earth. I'd be way more wary of Bailey's health history than Latos' maturity when it came to handing out contracts.

Agree with the last part. There are some other things relating to the former (which I won't get into here). The only reason I put Bailey ahead of Latos is the fact that we already have Latos under team control for the next 3 (4?) seasons.

I'll reiterate that I would not go more than 3/$27MM with Homer Bailey. He would still be quite tradeable with that contract, barring a major injury.

dougdirt
10-08-2012, 08:20 PM
Agree with the last part. There are some other things relating to the former (which I won't get into here). The only reason I put Bailey ahead of Latos is the fact that we already have Latos under team control for the next 3 (4?) seasons.

I'll reiterate that I would not go more than 3/$27MM with Homer Bailey. He would still be quite tradeable with that contract, barring a major injury.

I would be very surprised if the Reds offered that kind of contract to Bailey. I don't think he is going to get more than $5M this year in arbitration. That means you are probably paying him quite a bit more than he is going to get in arbitration unless he goes ahead and turns into a Cy Young contender.

klw
10-08-2012, 08:41 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/10/08/homer-bailey-no-excuses-right/#comments

Q. Itís been a good year for you as a team and individually for you. Anything that clicked this year versus previous years?

HOMER BAILEY: It didnít hurt to throw. That was the big one, that helps.
I think just staying healthy, being able to stay on keeping that turn going. There are always those bumps during the season where you donít feel quite as good but there is a difference in not feeling quite as good and having problems going on.

Superdude
10-08-2012, 09:17 PM
There are some other things relating to the former (which I won't get into here)

Honestly? Does this board really need more open ended cryptic messages?

mattfeet
10-08-2012, 10:01 PM
Honestly? Does this board really need more open ended cryptic messages?

For real.

Mario-Rijo
10-09-2012, 10:22 AM
I'd like to have Ludwick back for a couple of year's but if he hits the open market, I'm afraid his value will inflate. After Hamilton and maybe Swisher, there's not much in the way of offense or OFers out there. I think the best hope might be to approach him within days of the Reds final postseason game and hope he's feeling charitable toward the Reds/Jocketty.

Isn't Michael Bourn a FA? Would be a perfect addition for us. Not that it should preclude us from re-signing Ludwick to a reasonable deal. I'd wait on the pitchers for one more season at least.

Benihana
10-09-2012, 10:32 AM
Honestly? Does this board really need more open ended cryptic messages?

I wasn't going that route. I called it maturity issues and left it at that. You prodded and challenged the statement. There are real concerns about maturity issues. That is all.

No need to focus on the negatives during the postseason especially when he is performing so well.

Benihana
10-09-2012, 10:34 AM
Isn't Michael Bourn a FA? Would be a perfect addition for us. Not that it should preclude us from re-signing Ludwick to a reasonable deal. I'd wait on the pitchers for one more season at least.

Not with the money Bourn is going to want. CF is open for Billy Hamilton. Maybe we'll need a one year stopgap if the FO decides current in-house options like Stubbs and/or Heisey can't fill that role. For 1 year (and maybe less), I think they can.

If we're going to acquire a LF because Ludwick signs elsewhere, Justin Upton is my target.

medford
10-09-2012, 11:28 AM
Another thing to consider is what is coming up thru the pipeline. While the old adage of there is no thing as a pitching prospect, only pitching suspects holds some truth, the Reds should have a pretty solid staff in AAA next year made up of the solid young staff they had in AA this season. Can they find at least 1 back of the rotation starter or better out of that group? Can Stephenson become a back of the rotation starter or better in the next 2-3 seasons?

Additionally, Arroyo is in his final season, do they let him walk, do they work out an extension? Arroyo may be a middle of the rotation guy closer to 40 than 30, but he's about as conistant as they get in terms of pitching.

I'd have no problem extending Latos this offseason, buying out his arbitration seasons for an extra year or 2 (team option) beyond. They "gave up the farm" to acquire him, I'd hope they're attempting to lock him up as long as possible. As far as Bailey, the reports of his offseason conditioning to strengthen up his shoulders and upper body paid off this season; it shows the kind of maturity Bailey was often critized (fair or not I don't know) for in the past. I wouldn't be oppossed to rewarding him with an extension; I'm not sure if Bailey wants to be locked up long term in this ball park though. I'd make an offer, but if you're no where close, I'd see what I could get for Bailey on the trade market, especially if you can lock up Latos in the offseason.

As far as Ludwick goes, I'd go w/ the same plan I propossed in another thread a month or 2 back. The option is for $5 mil next season, I'd offer him a 2 year deal w/ a team option for a 3rd season, $6 mil per season w/ a decent buy out in 3 seasons. Worst case scenerio he's a solid 4th outfielder than can play both LF and RF. He seems to like here, talks about growing up a Reds fan, I know this offseason is his last chance to get a decent sized contract, I just have my doubts there are going to be many offers out there significanly higher than what I've propossed above from other teams. At the end of the day, he's still a 35ish outfielder w/ 1 great season, 1 solid season and whatever you call this season, encased with some terrible seasons in San Diego and Pittsburgh.

mth123
10-09-2012, 11:32 AM
I think a lot of what may happen in LF depends on both Rolen and Ludwick. If Rolen decides to come back and seems OK with a 300 PA role at 3B, I'd guess that Frazier may get the nod in LF. The Reds might try to add a lefty hitter who could play LF or maybe 3B when Rolen sits with Frazier playing the other spot. I'd guess Xavier Paul might be in the mix along with Heisey, but I'd hope they bring another player in as well. It doesn't need to be a star, but somebody who could get 200 PAs off the bench and play for weeks at a time if Rolen goes down.

As far as extensions go, Latos is the guy they should lock-up. I'd try to do a Cueto style deal buying out Arb and a year of FA with an option for another. I'd see if Ludwick would be open to coming back at his option price if they add another year, if not, I'd try to squeeze another year from Rolen and move on to Frazier and other options. Not sure what I'd do on Bailey. I'd love to lock him up, but wouldn't go higher than 3 years, $15 Million. Might add a $1` Million more as an option buy-out if he'd agree to a 4th year option for below $7 Million for that fourth year. If he seems intent on going for bigger money, I might explore trade options with Homer. His value is probably as high as it will get.

Benihana
10-09-2012, 12:03 PM
I think a lot of what may happen in LF depends on both Rolen and Ludwick. If Rolen decides to come back and seems OK with a 300 PA role at 3B, I'd guess that Frazier may get the nod in LF. The Reds might try to add a lefty hitter who could play LF or maybe 3B when Rolen sits with Frazier playing the other spot. I'd guess Xavier Paul might be in the mix along with Heisey, but I'd hope they bring another player in as well. It doesn't need to be a star, but somebody who could get 200 PAs off the bench and play for weeks at a time if Rolen goes down.

As far as extensions go, Latos is the guy they should lock-up. I'd try to do a Cueto style deal buying out Arb and a year of FA with an option for another. I'd see if Ludwick would be open to coming back at his option price if they add another year, if not, I'd try to squeeze another year from Rolen and move on to Frazier and other options. Not sure what I'd do on Bailey. I'd love to lock him up, but wouldn't go higher than 3 years, $15 Million. Might add a $1` Million more as an option buy-out if he'd agree to a 4th year option for below $7 Million for that fourth year. If he seems intent on going for bigger money, I might explore trade options with Homer. His value is probably as high as it will get.

Agree with both although I don't think we should bring back Rolen at this point. Offer him a position on the coaching staff. It's time to make Frazier the everyday guy at 3B- he's certainly earned it.

Maybe a James Shields or Ubaldo Jimenez style deal should be the model for Latos- buy out arb years and a year of FA with options for the next 2 years. The more options, the better IMO.

Vottomatic
10-09-2012, 12:46 PM
The Reds have a ton of options for this offseason.

They currently have 5 starters that each started 30+ games this past season. All of them are still under control. They have 2 quality starters in the wings, Corcino and Cingrani, that aren't quite ready for primetime, but should be in triple A next season.

Reds infield is completely locked up for awhile - 1B Votto (long term contract), 2B Phillips (long term contract), SS Cozart (rookie under control for awhile), 3B Frazier (rookie under control for awhile).

RF Bruce (under contract for awhile), CF ??? Hopefully Hamilton down the road, but not sure about next season, LF ??? Ludwick or another option?

Bullpen -
Chapman is signed for awhile.
Marshall was extended.
Hoover under control for awhile.
LeCure under control for awhile still, I think.

Broxton - I hope they re-sign him.
Madson - I hope they re-sign him.
If Madson can return to form, Broxton keeps improving, and the rest of the bullpen remains to form, this bullpen is one of the best, if not THE BEST in MLB.

If Madson can return to form as your Closer, I'd consider trading Chapman this offseason while his value is high.
I'd also consider trading Bailey this offseason while his value is high.
I'd go after a Latos-type situation, where a player is young and under control for awhile. Needs? Cleanup hitter and tablesetter. If the right deal came along, I'd consider Chapman and Bailey being traded.

AtomicDumpling
10-09-2012, 12:55 PM
Bryan Price. Make him the highest paid pitching coach in the league and get him locked up for at least 5 years. His job performance has been simply fantastic. The Reds have their best pitching staff in decades -- one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball despite pitching in a hitters' park. I am sure Bryan Price could name his price (pun intended) on the open market and lots of teams would line up to pay him to lead their pitching staffs.

Benihana
10-11-2012, 06:38 PM
Still think Latos doesn't have maturity issues?