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View Full Version : The Importance of Game Three



redsfaninbsg
10-09-2012, 01:32 AM
I think everyone that follows not only the Cincinnati Reds but Major League Baseball in general considers this series over. For those of us that have followed the Reds for the past two decades, we know this is not the case.

However, Game Three is a pretty big deal. Not only have the Reds never won a playoff game in Great American Ballpark, the team's best pitcher is injured and could sure use the extra days rest. A win gives the Reds four consecutive days off and five of the six prior to the start of the NLCS. While some may find this to be detrimental to a team, with the Reds, I'm not sure this is the case. In addition to Cueto, Votto is still recovering from knee surgery,we all know how day-to-day the situation with Rolen can be, add the recent injuries to Cozart and Ludwick and it couldn't hurt to give the guys a few days to rest.

As someone who has tickets to Game Four and has never attended a Reds playoff game, just go ahead and win it in three games because the thought of seeing Cain in game four doesn't sound like much fun to me. At some point, he will win.

Plus Plus
10-09-2012, 08:54 AM
Just a few things:

First off, Cain will not be pitching game four. The Giants already announced that Zito would be pitching the game. The potential matchup would be Zito and Cueto (assuming all of the positive reports are true), and that reads as a pretty clear mismatch.

Second, an effect of the playoff structure as it is now is that it is very hard for the lower seed to gain momentum. In a 2-2-1 setup, if the Reds were up 2-0 they would be going to San Francisco where the Giants would be playing in a packed stadium. However, the Reds obviously have every remaining game in the series at home. Even losing a 25-0 lead tonight would be able to be marginalized simply by the fact that Wednesday and even potentially Thursday would be in front of sold out screaming Reds fans.

I agree that the game is important (all playoff games are), but I don't see it as a clear must-win type game. I thought the Reds absolutely had to win at least one game in San Francisco, and saw game 1 as more of a must-win than this.

Just my .02!

Edskin
10-09-2012, 09:05 AM
No one wants to say it for voodoo reasons, but this series is over. We won it by the third inning of game one. I will be surprised if we don't win today. But if we don't, I fully expect to win game four. I am making NLCS plans even if that makes the superstitious among us nervous :)

thatcoolguy_22
10-09-2012, 09:06 AM
I'm with Plus Plus on this one. I feared coming back home down 0-2. Reds have best case scenario right now. Worst case, we have Cueto in game 4 and Latos in 5. It would be a huge luxury to pull off the sweep though. As far as Roles goes, I wouldn't be surprised to see Frazier start either game 3 or 4 to give Scotty a day off. Zits vs this RHH team is a recipe for success, and that's not counting Cueto. I think Lincecum pitching in what turned into a blow out, is a huge break for le redlegs.

WildcatFan
10-09-2012, 10:25 AM
The most important thing about winning today is that you get to reset your rotation for the NLCS. With St. Louis and Washington tied 1-1, they're going four, if not five, and won't have the same luxury.

Vottomatic
10-09-2012, 10:33 AM
Reds players look loose. Giants players look tight to me.

I don't want to jinx them, but I feel a sweep coming.

PuffyPig
10-09-2012, 10:57 AM
I think everyone that follows not only the Cincinnati Reds but Major League Baseball in general considers this series over. For those of us that have followed the Reds for the past two decades, we know this is not the case.



What has happened in Reds playoff history (or the last two decades) to suggest that the Reds are prone to blowing leads?

People consider it over because the odds suggest that our chances of winning is about 90%, based on the history of 5 game series, and based on ther simple odds assuming our chances of winning each game is 55%.

Look, we all know that the Giants have a chance of coming back, every team always does. But lets not make this game 3 about the pressure being on Cincy, its all on the Giants.

And BTW, while we have never won a playoff game at GABP, we've only played 1.

DGullett35
10-09-2012, 11:03 AM
Homer likes the lights. I say he pitches his heart out and our Power Stroke continues. I hope Votto goes deep so everyone outside of Cincinnati will quit talking about how the Reds are doomed because he has lost his power. I think id rather have him go 2-2 with 2 doubles and 2 walks then hit a HR and strike out the other 3 times. Thats if Luddy can drive him in:)

OldRightHander
10-09-2012, 11:06 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if Homer goes 7 strong innings and Bruce goes deep. Heck, it wouldn't really surprise me if Stubbs goes deep.

traderumor
10-09-2012, 11:15 AM
I'll bring out my disclaimer: While anything can happen in baseball, such as teams do go into another ballpark and sweep the home team, the Reds have certainly put themselves in pretty good position to win the series.

traderumor
10-09-2012, 11:16 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if Homer goes 7 strong innings and Bruce goes deep. Heck, it wouldn't really surprise me if Stubbs goes deep.Stubbs has actually looked pretty good at the plate in the first two games. Making solid contact, not taking as many clear strikes when behind in the count...

Reds/Flyers Fan
10-09-2012, 12:39 PM
A sweep would be just what the doctor ordered to get the pitching staff back on track. But ever since that long layoff between the '07 NLCS and World Series absolutely deep froze the previously scalding-hot Rockies, I'm scared of too many days off.

But win today and it's four days off, which is essentially another All-Star Break (and the Reds did pretty good coming out of that this year). The Rox in '07 had, I think, seven straight off days.

Tom Servo
10-09-2012, 12:42 PM
Just win.

SunDeck
10-09-2012, 12:49 PM
I have some confidence that Bailey will pitch well, but then again I'm not all that worried if he doesn't. He shouldn't get a very long leash with the quality bullpen backing him up. It looks to me like a sweep, either way.