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View Full Version : Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"



Caveat Emperor
10-09-2012, 03:57 PM
per John Fay.

https://twitter.com/johnfayman/status/255743040109555712

cumberlandreds
10-09-2012, 03:58 PM
I was afraid of that.

OldRightHander
10-09-2012, 04:03 PM
So how does that bode for the NLCS if they close this series out without him?

Sea Ray
10-09-2012, 04:03 PM
When exactly did he injure it?

RedsManRick
10-09-2012, 04:03 PM
Sounds to me like he'll be on the DL. With his delivery, you just can't chance it. As DatDude would say, "No bueno".

mattfeet
10-09-2012, 04:07 PM
Crap.

LawFive
10-09-2012, 04:09 PM
Fearless predictions for the next round: Leake for Cueto, Cingrani for Simon. Leake b/c they'll need a #4SP and Cingrani to be a long/emergency guy.

Time for Bailey to be a man, Latos and Arroyo need to keep on keepin' on.

OldRightHander
10-09-2012, 04:10 PM
Been reading on oblique strains. If that's what it is, they'll have to win the whole thing without him.

757690
10-09-2012, 04:11 PM
Curt Schilling laughs at this diagnosis.

LawFive
10-09-2012, 04:13 PM
If they don't DL him but rather just don't activate him as eligible for the next round, would he be eligible for the Series (if he was able to go)? I know if you are DL'ed you have to skip a round, but not sure how it works if a player simply isn't rostered to begin with.

Caveat Emperor
10-09-2012, 04:14 PM
So how does that bode for the NLCS if they close this series out without him?

I'd be surprised if he pitches again this season.

757690
10-09-2012, 04:16 PM
If the Reds win tonight, they can wait awhile to decide.

OldRightHander
10-09-2012, 04:17 PM
I've been reading that guys take 6 weeks to recover fully from an oblique strain, but I'm not sure about the "mild" part.

klw
10-09-2012, 04:18 PM
I thought that the word "Oblique" might be forthcoming when the reports from game one talked about a "rib cage issue."

Sea Ray
10-09-2012, 04:22 PM
I've been reading that guys take 6 weeks to recover fully from an oblique strain, but I'm not sure about the "mild" part.

Yes, that's the operative word indeed

medford
10-09-2012, 04:24 PM
Nothing a little dirt can't fix :)

Seriously, hope he's OK to go again this year, would be a shame for both him and the team to have to sit out the postseason after challenging for the Cy Young all season long.

Does the team have any of Rijo's snake oil sitting around on a shelf somewhere? (which in hindsight, anyone wonder if Rijo's snake oil was perhaps the prior formulation of Bond's "the cream and the clear"?)

lollipopcurve
10-09-2012, 04:24 PM
Bad news, but I have faith in Leake.

George Anderson
10-09-2012, 04:28 PM
So if Cueto is out for the year the rotation is Latos, Arroyo, Bailey and Leake.

Hardly the end of the world.

Tom Servo
10-09-2012, 04:28 PM
:(

Johnny Footstool
10-09-2012, 04:30 PM
On the list of instantly awful things to happen to the Reds this season, I'd rate this behind Madson's ligament tear and Votto's knee injury.

This team has been laughing in the face of adversity all year. Why stop now?

Go get 'em, guys.

kbrake
10-09-2012, 04:33 PM
Maybe it's just me but the drop off from Cueto to Leake seems pretty significant to me. Certainty not the end of the world but it will definitely make this much more difficult.

sivman17
10-09-2012, 04:34 PM
Some previous abdominal strains and recovery period:

1. Austin Jackson - missed about 3 weeks this season
2. Jose Altuve - left game against Reds on Sept 7, 2012 with "left lower abdominal strain" and returned Sept 11.
3. Angel Pagan - missed only 2 games in June this year with abdominal strain
4. Matt Moore (Pitcher) - missed about a week in spring training this year with a mild abdominal strain
5. Chipper Jones - injured in WBC on March 15, 2009 and returned in time for Opening Day on April 5, although he had been playing through pain in his side for a week.

What all this means is anyone's guess, especially since most of these guys are hitters and aren't providing the same torque as Cueto. It sounds like recovery time is highly variable and mostly depends on the pain experienced by the player.

My guess would be they drop Cueto for Leake and hope for a return in the WS. I think that's the best-case scenario.

Cyclone792
10-09-2012, 04:35 PM
Really depends on what "mild" really means.

In the short term, this means that it is all the more reason that the Reds have to win tonight and avoid the immediate decision of whether to DL him or not. If they win, they don't have to make a decision for several more days. And if they think he might be able to go in the NLCS, they could also save him for game 3 or 4 which is well over a week away.

Benihana
10-09-2012, 04:38 PM
We saw the Cards' Garcia and raised them a Cueto. Now let's go win this game tonight and start the NLCS with Latos-Arroyo-Bailey.

Homer Bailey just became the most important player on this team.

Kc61
10-09-2012, 04:39 PM
I would only DL Cueto this series if Leake is going to start Game 4. Otherwise, leave the roster as it is. Then decide on Cueto as we go forward.

Hope Game 4 isn't an issue because there IS no Game 4. But if there is, it could be Latos, it could be Leake.

In other words, don't DL Cueto until absolutely necessary.

cincrazy
10-09-2012, 04:48 PM
It's not good news. But this team has dealt with adversity all season. This is nothing new for them. If ANYONE can overcome this, it's this team. I doubt Cueto is ready to go before the World Series. The rest of the guys are just going to have to pick him up until he's ready.

PuffyPig
10-09-2012, 04:50 PM
In other words, don't DL Cueto until absolutely necessary.

Why would they?

Though there is some thought (according to the Reds) that you can't wait too long or they may deny it.

sivman17
10-09-2012, 04:50 PM
Cueto was injured on October 6 and the WS runs from Oct 24-Nov 1. Maybe I'm just being optimistic but I think if the Reds made it that he could stand a decent chance of pitching in at at least one game. But really it's all conjecture.

Kc61
10-09-2012, 04:56 PM
Why would they?

Though there is some thought (according to the Reds) that you can't wait too long or they may deny it.

Cards acted very promptly in DL'ing Garcia. My guess is Reds will wait until after tonight and if they lose will make the decision then.

I guess the main issue is whether to start Leake in Game 4 (if necessary, let's hope it's not necessary) or whether to start Latos on three days' rest.

IMO, I would go with Bailey, Latos and Arroyo. I like Latos v. Zito tomorrow, even with the three days' rest.

Go Reds.

mattfeet
10-09-2012, 04:59 PM
Cueto doesn't need to be DL'd before NLCS. They can change roster between series. Theyll just simply leave him off NLCS roster and add him back to WS roster.

-Matt

kaldaniels
10-09-2012, 05:00 PM
I guess I'm mildly concerned.

mattfeet
10-09-2012, 05:00 PM
RT @jtrentman on 700 wlw jocketty just told Seg it was a minor spasm and hope he can be back in a couple days//Not what trainer, Dusty said.

PuffyPig
10-09-2012, 05:01 PM
Cueto doesn't need to be DL'd before NLCS. They can change roster between series. Theyll just simply leave him off NLCS roster and add him back to WS roster.

-Matt

He would be if they need to use Leake this series.

mattfeet
10-09-2012, 05:01 PM
He would be if they need to use Leake this series.

Fair point.

reds44
10-09-2012, 05:02 PM
Cueto doesn't need to be DL'd before NLCS. They can change roster between series. Theyll just simply leave him off NLCS roster and add him back to WS roster.

-Matt
Unless they lose today and need Leake tomorrow.

Here's the "best case scenario" right now. Win tonight, end the series. Cueto comes back in time for the World Series.

Set the NLCS rotation like this:
Latos
Arroyo
(off day)
Bailey
Leake
Latos (normal rest)
(off day)
Arroyo (5 days rest)
Bailey (normal rest)

Leake only pitches one game if all goes to plan. Now obviously losing tonight or Cueto not being back for the World Series changes that.

Captain Hook
10-09-2012, 05:03 PM
RT @jtrentman on 700 wlw jocketty just told Seg it was a minor spasm and hope he can be back in a couple days//Not what trainer, Dusty said.

I heard the interview. Jocketty said the injury was nothing like what Cozart had and that he'd be available as early as tomorrow.

mattfeet
10-09-2012, 05:03 PM
Interesting for sure. I didnt head it - just copying from Fay's twitter.

Captain Hook
10-09-2012, 05:06 PM
Interesting for sure. I didnt head it - just copying from Fay's twitter.

It was very short. Walt really made it sound as if there's nothing to worry about and then bailed out quickly as if he had a playoff game to watch.

Benihana
10-09-2012, 05:06 PM
Wait so Cueto might be back for the NLCS???

PuffyPig
10-09-2012, 05:09 PM
Wait so Cueto might be back for the NLCS???


According to Walt he might be available tomorrow, if needed.

It's anyone's guess right now.

cincrazy
10-09-2012, 05:09 PM
Glad they're all on the same page lol.

dougdirt
10-09-2012, 05:10 PM
@MoEgger1530: Walt still saying spasm. Dusty/trainer saying oblique strain. Feels like 2011.

reds44
10-09-2012, 05:10 PM
I'm going to assume Walt didn't get word from the trainer until after that interview.

cincrazy
10-09-2012, 05:11 PM
If the interview was live, I have a hard time believing Walt hasn't already spoken with the trainer. If the interview was taped, it would sure be nice for Seg or WLW to clarify that.

smith288
10-09-2012, 05:12 PM
I think Cozart's injury was worse because of how he follows through after a swing. Much more violent than Cueto's motion which I can imagine is intense motion but far less damaging to the oblique.

Im not a doctor (or a GM apparently) though.

Captain Hook
10-09-2012, 05:12 PM
If the interview was live, I have a hard time believing Walt hasn't already spoken with the trainer. If the interview was taped, it would sure be nice for Seg or WLW to clarify that.

The interview was live. About 15 min. ago.

RedsManRick
10-09-2012, 05:13 PM
If Cueto can't go tomorrow, could Latos? While it's only 3 days rest, he only threw 57 pitches on Saturday.

RedsManRick
10-09-2012, 05:14 PM
Are strain and spasm mutually exclusive? Could it be a very mild sprain that triggered a spasm?

cincrazy
10-09-2012, 05:15 PM
Are strain and spasm mutually exclusive? Could it be a very mild sprain that triggered a spasm?

That's what I was thinking. Maybe it was more like an oblique spasm than an oblique strain. Either way, this is all making my brain hurt, and my blood pressure rise.

Sea Ray
10-09-2012, 05:16 PM
Maybe it's just me but the drop off from Cueto to Leake seems pretty significant to me. Certainty not the end of the world but it will definitely make this much more difficult.

In a vacuum, no question but Leake's not a bad option to have sitting around. In fact Johnny hasn't been Cy Young lately. In looking at the past 28 days Leake has arguably been better. His ERA was 3.32 and 1.316 WHIP. Cueto's: 4.13 and 1.482

kaldaniels
10-09-2012, 05:20 PM
If Cueto can't go tomorrow, could Latos? While it's only 3 days rest, he only threw 57 pitches on Saturday.

I wondered the same after game 1.

Caveat Emperor
10-09-2012, 05:23 PM
Are strain and spasm mutually exclusive? Could it be a very mild sprain that triggered a spasm?

Or it could be gamesmanship -- why tip the Giants off that Mike Leake might be the G4 starter any sooner than absolutely necessary.

PuffyPig
10-09-2012, 05:23 PM
I wondered the same after game 1.

He probably could, but I wonder if they question if it would affect his effectiveness. Plus, it makes no sense to do so unless you want to bring Arroyo back on 3 days rest.

I think I'd rather go with Leake and make sure that Latos is properly rested for the final game if needed.

I think a rested Leake is as good as a risk as Arroyo on 3 days rest. I don't think Arroyo improves the longer that batters have a second chance at.

medford
10-09-2012, 05:23 PM
Knowing Latos' hatred of the Giants, he'd probably happily pitch the next 3 nights if Dusty would let him.

Caveat Emperor
10-09-2012, 05:25 PM
I think a rested Leake is as good as a risk as Arroyo on 3 days rest. I don't think Arroyo improves the longer that batters have a second chance at.

Leake is a 5.54 ERA guy at home. I'll take Arroyo once through on 3 days rest (2-3 IP) and let LeCure, Simon, and the bullpen take the rest.

I'd avoid pitching Leake at all costs, IMO.

wheels
10-09-2012, 05:29 PM
If Walt says he can tomorrow if need be, that's what I'm going to believe. He's dealt with the media long enough to know the facts before making a statement.

The interview was live as well.

Sea Ray
10-09-2012, 05:32 PM
I wonder if the Nats would let us borrow Strasberg? I hear he's not doing anything these days

RedsfaninMT
10-09-2012, 05:33 PM
More detail on reds.com

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121009&content_id=39636770&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

PuffyPig
10-09-2012, 05:39 PM
Leake is a 5.54 ERA guy at home. I'll take Arroyo once through on 3 days rest (2-3 IP) and let LeCure, Simon, and the bullpen take the rest.

I'd avoid pitching Leake at all costs, IMO.

You could do the same thing with Leake, have him go 2-3 innings.

But I think having Latos pitching on normal rest trumps everything.

He pitched 4 innings last game on 3 days rest, and certainly didn't look as sharp as he has been looking lately.

RedsfaninMT
10-09-2012, 05:47 PM
You could do the same thing with Leake, have him go 2-3 innings.

But I think having Latos pitching on normal rest trumps everything.

He pitched 4 innings last game on 3 days rest, and certainly didn't look as sharp as he has been looking lately.

Some of Mat's lack of sharpness should be attributed to lifting weights/long-tossing before the game. Given all that, I find it remarkable he did as well as he did.

This would be short rest, but without those other probable detrimental affects.

Go Homer! Make this all irrelevant. I was skeptical of Bronson on Sunday, and I am not real positive in attitude about Homer given his road/home splits, but I was wrong two days ago. Would be thrilled to be wrong again.

Kc61
10-09-2012, 06:20 PM
I would pitch Latos tomorrow. He only worked four innings last time and didn't follow his usual starting routine.

Give me Bailey tonight, Latos tomorrow, Arroyo on Thursday, and I'm pretty confident.

I can't be confident with Leake, he hasn't pitched well at GABP.

If Latos can't go too long tomorrow the team has a deep bullpen to finish for him.

wheels
10-09-2012, 06:25 PM
I would pitch Latos tomorrow. He only worked four innings last time and didn't follow his usual starting routine.

Give me Bailey tonight, Latos tomorrow, Arroyo on Thursday, and I'm pretty confident.

I can't be confident with Leake, he hasn't pitched well at GABP.

If Latos can't go too long tomorrow the team has a deep bullpen to finish for him.

If they win tonight, I too will be very confident about tomorrow and Thursday.

Tom Servo
10-09-2012, 06:37 PM
Whatever Fay says, I believe the opposite.

Brutus
10-09-2012, 06:47 PM
The Reds could do themselves a huge solid by winning today. If they win, they can make the decision the next few days what to do with Cueto. They could start by simply leaving him off the LCS roster and have Leake make a start or what have you, then they could "DL" Leake for some phantom injury in the middle of the series if Cueto gets healthy. If not, they could play to win the LCS without him and then simply put him back on the roster before the World Series. So the options are much better if they simply win today.

mth123
10-09-2012, 08:54 PM
Another option, if they lose tonight, would be to DL somebody else (say Simon) so they can activate Leake without burning the option of having Cueto available in the NLCS.

Brutus
10-09-2012, 08:55 PM
By the way, it occurred to me that perhaps Fay thought they said "mild oblique strain" when they actually said "mild back strain." Perhaps that's a source of the confusion? Maybe it really is an oblique strain, but it would explain why Jocketty didn't mention it.

RedsManRick
10-09-2012, 10:21 PM
Unfortunately, we're going to find out what Dusty and Walt have in mind.

SirFelixCat
10-09-2012, 10:23 PM
IMO, if Johnny is hurt, DL him, pitch Leake tomorrow and Mat game 5 (if nec.).

Big Klu
10-09-2012, 10:25 PM
Another option, if they lose tonight, would be to DL somebody else (say Simon) so they can activate Leake without burning the option of having Cueto available in the NLCS.

MLB would likely investigate if Simon mysteriously came up with an injury after Cueto's injury has been so well-documented.

mth123
10-09-2012, 10:30 PM
MLB would likely investigate if Simon mysteriously came up with an injury after Cueto's injury has been so well-documented.

Let 'em. If Simon says he's hurting, there is nothing they can find to refute it.

Brutus
10-09-2012, 10:31 PM
Let 'em. If Simon says he's hurting, there is nothing they can find to refute it.

To be technical, they have to fill out a form signed by a doctor. But that's obviously not stopped teams from pulling it off in the past.

vaticanplum
10-09-2012, 10:38 PM
Leake is a 5.54 ERA guy at home. I'll take Arroyo once through on 3 days rest (2-3 IP) and let LeCure, Simon, and the bullpen take the rest.

I'd avoid pitching Leake at all costs, IMO.

Me too. No question. Pitch Leake tomorrow, let the game get away, and by Game 5 we are in an entirely different series.

Dusty and co. have been managing the pitchers pretty cautiously, seems to me; probably aware of the high inning counts and long-term investments on all of them. If they say Latos can go, I trust them. And Latos is a hoss, physically and mentally. Keep him on a short leash and have as much of the bullpen ready to go as possible. I know we've got a cushion still, but IMHO they've got to wrap this up tomorrow, let everybody get some rest and regroup.

Brutus
10-09-2012, 10:42 PM
Me too. No question. Pitch Leake tomorrow, let the game get away, and by Game 5 we are in an entirely different series.

Dusty and co. have been managing the pitchers pretty cautiously, seems to me; probably aware of the high inning counts and long-term investments on all of them. If they say Latos can go, I trust them. And Latos is a hoss, physically and mentally. Keep him on a short leash and have as much of the bullpen ready to go as possible. I know we've got a cushion still, but IMHO they've got to wrap this up tomorrow, let everybody get some rest and regroup.

That's a bit of hyperbole. Leake is better than probably 95% of the fifth starters teams would have the luxury of throwing out there in an emergency.

His home ERA is not much worse than Homer Bailey's home ERA. It didn't stop Homer from pitching well tonight. Further, Leake is a groundball pitcher (almost 2-1 groundball to flyball this season). Unfortunately for him, he was snake bit by a very unsustainable HR/FB rate. I don't think that should at all be a consideration. If the Reds feel Cueto can't go and they aren't ready to pitch Latos, then Leake should get the call.

That said, there are other ways to do this without putting Cueto out, so I would go one of those routes not because of Leake but because of not wanting to eliminate Cueto from the LCS.

vaticanplum
10-09-2012, 10:46 PM
That's a bit of hyperbole. Leake is better than probably 95% of the fifth starters teams would have the luxury of throwing out there in an emergency.

His home ERA is not much worse than Homer Bailey's home ERA. It didn't stop Homer from pitching well tonight. Further, Leake is a groundball pitcher (almost 2-1 groundball to flyball this season). Unfortunately for him, he was snake bit by a very unsustainable HR/FB rate. I don't think that should at all be a consideration. If the Reds feel Cueto can't go and they aren't ready to pitch Latos, then Leake should get the call.

That said, there are other ways to do this without putting Cueto out, so I would go one of those routes not because of Leake but because of not wanting to eliminate Cueto from the LCS.

He's a great #5, but teams don't pitch #5 pitchers in the postseason for a reason. I don't trust Leake mentally, in GABP, in a game that high pressure. Or at least I don't trust him as much as I do Latos. It's as simple as that. If Latos can handle it physically, that's who I trust.

Brutus
10-09-2012, 10:50 PM
I don't trust Leake mentally, in GABP, in a game that high pressure. Or at least I don't trust him as much as I do Latos. It's as simple as that. If Latos can handle it physically, that's who I trust.

Leake's psyche is one of his strong points. This is a kid that skipped the minors entirely and came up attacking big league hitters. I think mentally should be the last worry about putting Leake out there. If he's called on, he'll handle it just fine.

Latos would be pitching on short rest for a second consecutive time. I'm not sure that's a good idea when you can simply let him wait one more day and pitch on full rest. And the great news is that if Leake wins it, Latos will be able to go game one if Cueto still isn't ready.

I really don't think Leake is given enough credit here. He may not have dominant stuff, but the kid is a pitcher and a battler.

REDREAD
10-09-2012, 11:40 PM
IMO, if Cueto can't pitch tommorrow, you just bite the bullet and DL him and add Leake.

In hindsight, it's a real shame they chose Simon over Leake on the postseason roster. Simon hasn't appeared in a game yet, and with Arrondondo, he was kind of a duplicate mop up man anyhow.
I realize that it's easy for me to say this in hindsight.. it's just if Leake was already on the postseason roster, this would be much less stressful.

paulrichjr
10-10-2012, 12:00 AM
IMO, if Cueto can't pitch tommorrow, you just bite the bullet and DL him and add Leake.

In hindsight, it's a real shame they chose Simon over Leake on the postseason roster. Simon hasn't appeared in a game yet, and with Arrondondo, he was kind of a duplicate mop up man anyhow.
I realize that it's easy for me to say this in hindsight.. it's just if Leake was already on the postseason roster, this would be much less stressful.

If Leake had made the roster I would bet a lot of money he would have pitched game 1 instead of Latos.

REDREAD
10-10-2012, 12:03 AM
If Leake had made the roster I would bet a lot of money he would have pitched game 1 instead of Latos.

Could've been.. that would not have been a bad idea either.

reds44
10-10-2012, 12:11 AM
You don't pitch Latos on 3 days rest, again. You just don't. I know everybody is crapping in their pants at the thought of going 5 games, but you can't treat game 4 like a must win, because it's not. If you throw Latos on 3 day rest and lose, you're looking at Arroyo on 3 days in game 5. That's absurd.

Yes, Latos "only" threw 57 pitches on Saturday, but that was 4 days after he "only" threw 80 pitches in St. Louis. He's not going to be at full strength, he's just not.

Pitch Leake. Hope you can get 5 out of him, then worst case have fully rested Latos there for Game 5.

fearofpopvol1
10-10-2012, 12:24 AM
That's a bit of hyperbole. Leake is better than probably 95% of the fifth starters teams would have the luxury of throwing out there in an emergency.

His home ERA is not much worse than Homer Bailey's home ERA. It didn't stop Homer from pitching well tonight. Further, Leake is a groundball pitcher (almost 2-1 groundball to flyball this season). Unfortunately for him, he was snake bit by a very unsustainable HR/FB rate. I don't think that should at all be a consideration. If the Reds feel Cueto can't go and they aren't ready to pitch Latos, then Leake should get the call.

That said, there are other ways to do this without putting Cueto out, so I would go one of those routes not because of Leake but because of not wanting to eliminate Cueto from the LCS.

Leake has also not had Sept/Oct numbers like Bailey's at any point in his career. They're not really comparable pitchers at this juncture.

Caveat Emperor
10-10-2012, 12:31 AM
I really don't think Leake is given enough credit here. He may not have dominant stuff, but the kid is a pitcher and a battler.

Leake has been a mediocre pitcher with middling stuff his entire career. He's not a good post-season option at all.

Tom Servo
10-10-2012, 12:32 AM
I like Mike, but I am firmly in the camp that does not want him making a post season start.

Brutus
10-10-2012, 12:51 AM
Leake has also not had Sept/Oct numbers like Bailey's at any point in his career. They're not really comparable pitchers at this juncture.

2012:

Player (K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, HR/FB, FIP, xFIP, SIERA)

Leake (15.3%, 5.4%, 48.9%, 26.6%, 24.5%, 16.7%, 4.42, 3.82, 4.01)
Bailey (19.2%, 6.0%, 44.9%, 34.4%, 19.7%, 11.5%, 3.97, 3.94, 3.84)

I really think people are letting a couple of excellent starts the last two weeks otherwise taint how similar these two pitchers were for much of the year. Other than an unsustainable rate of homers to flyballs allowed, Leake and Bailey weren't very different pitchers this season.

I love what Homer has done the last few starts as much as anyone. He's been stellar. But I think cherry-picking a few starts and acting like suddenly he and Leake were otherwise wholly different pitchers is completely ignoring over 5 months of data. And that aside, this isn't even about whether or not he and Bailey are similar. It is more about Leake not getting enough credit regardless of what anyone thinks of Homer.

Brutus
10-10-2012, 12:54 AM
Leake has been a mediocre pitcher with middling stuff his entire career. He's not a good post-season option at all.

If a career 3.87 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA is your version of a mediocre pitcher... I'd love to see what kind of staff is acceptable to you. It must be a darn good one.

Edskin
10-10-2012, 01:22 AM
You don't pitch Latos on 3 days rest, again. You just don't. I know everybody is crapping in their pants at the thought of going 5 games, but you can't treat game 4 like a must win, because it's not. If you throw Latos on 3 day rest and lose, you're looking at Arroyo on 3 days in game 5. That's absurd.

Yes, Latos "only" threw 57 pitches on Saturday, but that was 4 days after he "only" threw 80 pitches in St. Louis. He's not going to be at full strength, he's just not.

Pitch Leake. Hope you can get 5 out of him, then worst case have fully rested Latos there for Game 5.

This. If you pitch Latos tomorrow it is a little bit of a panic move and then if there is a game 5 you have the Giants with Cain, and all the momentum, facing Leake or Arroyo on short rest.

Just pitch Leake and hope he can match Zito... That isn't absurdly far fetched. We need the bats to do their job.

And I'll be honest... I talked to a buddy of mine who pitched the in minors and he said it.... If Cueto misses a playoff start with a midly strained oblique? I try really hard not to judge players' injuries/toughness because we just don't know, but I'd be lying if I said I'm not a little disappointed in him if he can't go

fearofpopvol1
10-10-2012, 01:25 AM
2012:

Player (K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, HR/FB, FIP, xFIP, SIERA)

Leake (15.3%, 5.4%, 48.9%, 26.6%, 24.5%, 16.7%, 4.42, 3.82, 4.01)
Bailey (19.2%, 6.0%, 44.9%, 34.4%, 19.7%, 11.5%, 3.97, 3.94, 3.84)

I really think people are letting a couple of excellent starts the last two weeks otherwise taint how similar these two pitchers were for much of the year. Other than an unsustainable rate of homers to flyballs allowed, Leake and Bailey weren't very different pitchers this season.

I love what Homer has done the last few starts as much as anyone. He's been stellar. But I think cherry-picking a few starts and acting like suddenly he and Leake were otherwise wholly different pitchers is completely ignoring over 5 months of data. And that aside, this isn't even about whether or not he and Bailey are similar. It is more about Leake not getting enough credit regardless of what anyone thinks of Homer.

You're right, they're not the same pitchers this season. Take Leake's bat out of the equation, and Bailey has been worth about a full win more than Leake. Bailey has also been pitching in a way Leake has never pitched before for September/October. Bailey > Leake

I like Leake. I think for a #5 guy, he's good. I think he can continue to improve in the future. But Leake at GAB during the 2012 playoffs scare the living daylights out of me and apparently most of RZ.

Slyder
10-10-2012, 01:34 AM
This is all IMO. If there's ANY chance of Cueto being good for game 5 you go for the knockout punch and run Latos out there in Game 4. Short rest or not, I think after his game 1 appearance he's in the Giants heads. To be able to come in and perform like he did with no notice... imagine a full day of preparation! Have Cueto go game 5 and see if he can wake the echos of Curt Schilling or Willis Reed with the kitchen sink ready to go in the pen (read EVERYBODY) if Cueto can only go a couple.

Reds Fanatic
10-10-2012, 01:40 AM
I don't see any way Cueto would be close to ready. There is no way he can pitch with an oblique no matter how mild especially with his motion.

I just hate the idea of using Leake in this situation. He had not pitched in 12 days (September 29th was his last start) and I am not sure how much he had been working being off the roster for this series.

If they do have to end up using Leake then I would have LeCure ready because he may have to save the day again.

redsfaninbsg
10-10-2012, 01:48 AM
My biggest concern is the Giants blow it open early. There offense has been terrible for three games, not only are they due for a little luck/progression to the norm but, they shell Leake. The objective tomorrow has to be to keep it even through five.

Reds Fanatic
10-10-2012, 01:51 AM
Another thing that might factor in is there are some reports that Latos is having some flu like symptoms today.

Brutus
10-10-2012, 02:20 AM
You're right, they're not the same pitchers this season. Take Leake's bat out of the equation, and Bailey has been worth about a full win more than Leake. Bailey has also been pitching in a way Leake has never pitched before for September/October. Bailey > Leake

I like Leake. I think for a #5 guy, he's good. I think he can continue to improve in the future. But Leake at GAB during the 2012 playoffs scare the living daylights out of me and apparently most of RZ.

I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude they weren't about the same pitcher. Bailey had a better strikeout rate, Leake a better walk rate, Bailey fewer homers and Leake kept the ball on the ground more often overall. Their SIERA and xFIP was very similar.

fearofpopvol1
10-10-2012, 06:26 AM
I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude they weren't about the same pitcher. Bailey had a better strikeout rate, Leake a better walk rate, Bailey fewer homers and Leake kept the ball on the ground more often overall. Their SIERA and xFIP was very similar.

Bailey pitched 208 innings to Leake's 179. 30 innings is more is significant IMO. There's certainly more value in those extra innings.

Further, let's not pretend that the gap in their BB/9 is much different (2.25 to 2.06). Bailey's K rate was noticeably better than Leake's K numbers. Bailey's ERA+ is 115 to Leake's 93.

Bailey > Leake

kaldaniels
10-10-2012, 12:07 PM
I don't know how you can look at those numbers and conclude they weren't about the same pitcher. Bailey had a better strikeout rate, Leake a better walk rate, Bailey fewer homers and Leake kept the ball on the ground more often overall. Their SIERA and xFIP was very similar.

Only because you championed this stat.

Mike Leake OPS against .805
Bailey .718

PuffyPig
10-10-2012, 02:07 PM
Only because you championed this stat.

Mike Leake OPS against .805
Bailey .718

To be fair, no one is suggesting that Leake's actually results are as good as Bailey, only that if you are believer of things like xFIP, he compares favourably.

Brutus
10-10-2012, 05:08 PM
Bailey pitched 208 innings to Leake's 179. 30 innings is more is significant IMO. There's certainly more value in those extra innings.

Further, let's not pretend that the gap in their BB/9 is much different (2.25 to 2.06). Bailey's K rate was noticeably better than Leake's K numbers. Bailey's ERA+ is 115 to Leake's 93.

Bailey > Leake

That's almost exclusively only because Bailey made three extra starts because of how the rotations were changed, not because he was pitching deeper into games.

fearofpopvol1
10-10-2012, 05:13 PM
That's almost exclusively only because Bailey made three extra starts because of how the rotations were changed, not because he was pitching deeper into games.

You think Leake would've gone 30 innings in 3 starts? We can't reasonably conclude that Leake would've performed the same in those 3 starts either. When he was called upon for those extra starts, he performed very well.

The K numbers are noticeably better as is the ERA+ for Bailey.

Sea Ray
10-10-2012, 05:17 PM
The truth of the matter is the Reds have to score some runs today. They can't count on winning a 1-0, 2-1 game and I think that's (scoring runs) possible with Zito. The offense has to come to the park thinking that they'll have to pick up the pitching today. This is a game for the O to win

Brutus
10-10-2012, 05:34 PM
You think Leake would've gone 30 innings in 3 starts? We can't reasonably conclude that Leake would've performed the same in those 3 starts either. When he was called upon for those extra starts, he performed very well.

The K numbers are noticeably better as is the ERA+ for Bailey.

The point is that of the 29 innings more pitched by Bailey, based only on Bailey's average of 6.3 innings per start, 19 of those 29 innings were only because of pitching more starts based on how the rotation was re-shuffled at a few points in the year.

So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.

Kc61
10-10-2012, 05:37 PM
The point is that of the 29 innings more pitched by Bailey, based only on Bailey's average of 6.3 innings per start, 19 of those 29 innings were only because of pitching more starts based on how the rotation was re-shuffled at a few points in the year.

So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.

I know this stems from the Leake v. Bailey debate we've had all year.

I've been on the Leake side of things until recently. But Bailey has become a dominant pitcher of late.

Yes, Homer has been inconsistent and may revert. But right now, I don't see a comparison between the two.

fearofpopvol1
10-10-2012, 05:48 PM
The point is that of the 29 innings more pitched by Bailey, based only on Bailey's average of 6.3 innings per start, 19 of those 29 innings were only because of pitching more starts based on how the rotation was re-shuffled at a few points in the year.

So you're only talking about a difference of 10 innings through the course of the season because of lasting longer in games. Not a big difference at all.

Let's compare their starts yesterday and today.

Bailey > Leake. By a lot.

corkedbat
10-10-2012, 08:13 PM
I'm hoping they sign Homer to a "reasonable" extension this offseason, find someone who will give us a starting CFer for Leake and move to upgrade his spot in the rotation - either a signing, a deal or Aroldis (but I'm thinking that ship has sailed).

camisadelgolf
10-11-2012, 02:20 AM
Leake has been a mediocre pitcher with middling stuff his entire career. He's not a good post-season option at all.
He's no Barry Zito.

Brutus
10-11-2012, 03:12 AM
Let's compare their starts yesterday and today.

Bailey > Leake. By a lot.

So the whole premise of my post was that looking too much at the last few starts of the year out of 30 starts over the course of the season was essentially cherry-picking, and your response is to over-simplify it further by focusing on one start each out of 31 and 34 respectively? Respectfully, that's exactly what I'm trying to avoid. Of course it goes without saying these last starts weren't remotely comparable... but on the whole, their performances this season weren't indicative of looking only at the last few starts.

Look, the way Homer pitched the last few games of the year was nothing short of sensational. I absolutely hope he continues because if he does, not only will he be as good or possibly better than any Reds' pitcher, but he'd be as good as most pitchers in the entire league. Sans Justin Verlander, Homer pitched as well as anyone in the majors his last few times through.

But the point is doing it for 3-4 starts is not the same as doing for a season. He still hasn't done it for a whole season and his seasonal stats are pretty darn similar to Leake. I also don't think that's the bad thing that people are making it sound, as I think Leake doesn't get enough credit. But all I'm saying is that people need to stop acting like Bailey has suddenly turned the corner because he's turned in a phenomenal three starts in a row.

Let him do it for a full season and then we'll have something to talk about. I like Homer. He's a good pitcher. And if he continues to pitch like this, he'll be a GREAT pitcher. But again... let's stop carving out 3-4 starts and representing those starts as a whole evolution of something he wasn't for the previous 29-30. If this Homer is the one we'll see going forward, there's not a comparison (as if it really matters anyhow. Not sure why Leake has to be torn down to build up Homer). I hope this is the one we see going forward.

My whole thing has been trade Homer or Leake for a starting LF or CF so that Chapman can be put in the rotation. Homer is making it easier to trade, not because I think Leake is better but because Homer's trade value is skyrocketing if he keeps this up.

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2012, 03:57 AM
So the whole premise of my post was that looking too much at the last few starts of the year out of 30 starts over the course of the season was essentially cherry-picking, and your response is to over-simplify it further by focusing on one start each out of 31 and 34 respectively? Respectfully, that's exactly what I'm trying to avoid. Of course it goes without saying these last starts weren't remotely comparable... but on the whole, their performances this season weren't indicative of looking only at the last few starts.

Look, the way Homer pitched the last few games of the year was nothing short of sensational. I absolutely hope he continues because if he does, not only will he be as good or possibly better than any Reds' pitcher, but he'd be as good as most pitchers in the entire league. Sans Justin Verlander, Homer pitched as well as anyone in the majors his last few times through.

But the point is doing it for 3-4 starts is not the same as doing for a season. He still hasn't done it for a whole season and his seasonal stats are pretty darn similar to Leake. I also don't think that's the bad thing that people are making it sound, as I think Leake doesn't get enough credit. But all I'm saying is that people need to stop acting like Bailey has suddenly turned the corner because he's turned in a phenomenal three starts in a row.

Let him do it for a full season and then we'll have something to talk about. I like Homer. He's a good pitcher. And if he continues to pitch like this, he'll be a GREAT pitcher. But again... let's stop carving out 3-4 starts and representing those starts as a whole evolution of something he wasn't for the previous 29-30. If this Homer is the one we'll see going forward, there's not a comparison (as if it really matters anyhow. Not sure why Leake has to be torn down to build up Homer). I hope this is the one we see going forward.

My whole thing has been trade Homer or Leake for a starting LF or CF so that Chapman can be put in the rotation. Homer is making it easier to trade, not because I think Leake is better but because Homer's trade value is skyrocketing if he keeps this up.

It's been more than 3-4 starts. I originally quoted since the beginning of September, which is actually 8 starts (half at home and half on the road). Dang near all (in fact, all but 1) have been great. Homer K's more batters and has a near equal walk rate. His ERA+ is better as well.

You can claim "cherrypicking" or "small sample size" all you want, but the reality of is that it's not unreasonable to assume that Homer is a better bet than Leake now and moving forward.

Brutus
10-11-2012, 04:06 AM
It's been more than 3-4 starts. I originally quoted since the beginning of September, which is actually 8 starts (half at home and half on the road). Dang near all (in fact, all but 1) have been great. Homer K's more batters and has a near equal walk rate. His ERA+ is better as well.

You can claim "cherrypicking" or "small sample size" all you want, but the reality of is that it's not unreasonable to assume that Homer is a better bet than Leake now and moving forward.

In the start immediately preceding the no-hitter, he gave up 5 runs on a pair of homers. In the two starts prior to that, he only gave up one run apiece in a combined 14 innings, but he only struck out eight, and gave up almost as many fly balls as he did grounders. Those two starts were certainly not great.

The two starts before those three were great but they were also against the worst team in baseball.

Really now, the last three starts are clouding peoples' recollection of what he was doing prior to that point. Before the no-hitter, people were still talking about the inconsistency and all of a sudden now those September starts are being revised to indicate the start of a trend. That isn't consistent with how people were viewing those games after they happened.

I still don't know why you're so concerned with being "better than Leake moving forward." Does it really matter that much?

fearofpopvol1
10-11-2012, 05:38 AM
In the start immediately preceding the no-hitter, he gave up 5 runs on a pair of homers. In the two starts prior to that, he only gave up one run apiece in a combined 14 innings, but he only struck out eight, and gave up almost as many fly balls as he did grounders. Those two starts were certainly not great.

The two starts before those three were great but they were also against the worst team in baseball.

Really now, the last three starts are clouding peoples' recollection of what he was doing prior to that point. Before the no-hitter, people were still talking about the inconsistency and all of a sudden now those September starts are being revised to indicate the start of a trend. That isn't consistent with how people were viewing those games after they happened.

I still don't know why you're so concerned with being "better than Leake moving forward." Does it really matter that much?

I would say Homer has been pitching great since the beginning of September. You can argue differently and cherrypick all the stats you want, but that's my opinion. It's indisputable that Bailey has pitched better than Leake during that timeframe. By a lot.

Yes, Leake matters. Maybe he doesn't matter for the rest of the playoffs, but he certainly matters next year and beyond. Chapman is a possible guy for the rotation and Cingrani is knocking on the door.