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View Full Version : Where does starting Leake in Game 4 rank on the stupidity chart?



Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:03 PM
* He was completely left off the NLDS roster -- it's evident how the team felt abot him.

* Latos only pitched four innings on Saturday. He EASILY could have pitched on 3 days rest. It's not like he had a 100+ pitch outing last time out. This would not have been the typical "3 days rest."

* Very often in playoffs, teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway.

* Playing to set yourself up well for Game 5 or setting yourself up for the NLCS is a great way to lose Game 4. You need to go for the kill when you can.

Latos was the obvious call. Ridiculous that Leake was given the start. Way to overthink this one!

reds44
10-10-2012, 10:05 PM
It wasn't stupid at all. It was still the right move. You don't treat Game 4 like a must win when it wasn't. Now you have Latos at 100% tomorrow.

Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:05 PM
See, that's where I disagree. I absolutely would have approached Game 4 as a must-win, especially with Matt Cain waiting for us in Game 5 and all the momentum on the Giants' side.

Plus Plus
10-10-2012, 10:05 PM
* He was completely left off the NLDS roster -- it's evident how the team felt abot him.

* Latos only pitched four innings on Saturday. He EASILY could have pitched on 3 days rest. It's not like he had a 100+ pitch outing last time out. This would not have been the typical "3 days rest."

* Very often in playoffs, teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway.

* Playing to set yourself up well for Game 5 or setting yourself up for the NLCS is a great way to lose Game 4. You need to go for the kill when you can.

Latos was the obvious call. Ridiculous that Leake was given the start. Way to overthink this one!

If Latos ended his night on the same pitching line as Leake, the alternative game 5 situation would be 3-days rest Arroyo or "staff day."

Leake was the right option, like it or not.

Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:06 PM
If Latos ended his night on the same pitching line as Leake, the alternative would be 3-days rest Arroyo or "staff day."

Leake was the right option, like it or not.

What's wrong with Arroyo on three days rest?

1. He has a rubber arm.

2. Most teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway in the postseason.

Plus Plus
10-10-2012, 10:07 PM
What's wrong with Arroyo on three days rest?

1. He has a rubber arm.

2. Most teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway in the postseason.

You don't see a mismatch between short rest Arroyo and Cain as opposed to full rest Latos and Cain?

I see one as being a clear Reds disadvantage and one as being a marginal Reds advantage (as the Reds have handled Cain relatively well this year).

reds44
10-10-2012, 10:07 PM
What's wrong with Arroyo on three days rest?

1. He has a rubber arm.

2. Most teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway in the postseason.
Which team in the postseason is using a 3 man rotation right now?

The correct answer: none.

Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:08 PM
You don't see a mismatch between short rest Arroyo and Cain as opposed to full rest Latos and Cain?

I see one as being a clear Reds disadvantage and one as being a marginal Reds advantage (as the Reds have handled Cain relatively well this year).

The point is, the Reds should have gone all-out to win Game 4 IMO. It's like they wanted to hold something back "just in case." Not a good strategy in the playoffs.

Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:09 PM
Which team in the postseason is using a 3 man rotation right now?

The correct answer: none.

The Yankees.

George Anderson
10-10-2012, 10:10 PM
http://tummytime.onslow.org/tummytime/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/spilled-milk1.jpg

Plus Plus
10-10-2012, 10:11 PM
The point is, the Reds should have gone all-out to win Game 4 IMO. It's like they wanted to hold something back "just in case." Not a good strategy in the playoffs.

I totally see and appreciate what you are saying, but playing game 4 like it is game 5 when it isn't game 5 is a recipe for disaster if real game 5 happens.

I'd rather have full guns (Marshall, Broxton, Chapman, and to a lesser extent Hanigan and Rolen all off for a game, Latos on full rest) than what would be in the wings if they had gone all-out in today's game.

Again, if they had lost (which they would have had like a 42% chance of doing regardless) today with Latos going, the alternative is a really poor one. Now, even though the game yesterday was lost, they are still only one win away from the NLCS and have every gun cocked and loaded, including Mat "The Giant Killer" Latos.

Plus Plus
10-10-2012, 10:12 PM
The Yankees.

They are in game 3 right now. Phil Hughes is starting tomorrow.

reds44
10-10-2012, 10:13 PM
They are in game 3 right now. Phil Hughes is starting tomorrow.
That's a 4 man rotation for you scoring at home.

Edskin
10-10-2012, 10:16 PM
It was the right move.... I agree with saving Latos for game 5 at full strength especially considering he was sick. It was also reasonable to expect Leake to maybe give us 5 innings and keep them to 4 or fewer. Also reasonable to expect our offense to do the same against Zito.

Leake was awful today unfortunately. I was hoping he'd be "eh" like he was most of the year. But if the offense keeps pace it might have been a different outcome.

Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:18 PM
That's a 4 man rotation for you scoring at home.

I take that back. I thought Girardi had said prior to the playoffs he was going with a 3-man rotation of Sabathia, Pettitte and Kuroda.

Whatever. I know most good playoffs teams have tradionally used a 3-man rotation. It doesn't change my point; especially when Latos only pitched 4 innings on Saturday in Game One. Can we all agree that wouldn't have been the typical "three days rest"?

reds44
10-10-2012, 10:20 PM
It used to be easier to use 3 man rotation's when there were more off days in the LDS.

mdccclxix
10-10-2012, 10:23 PM
SF's bats were going to wake up at some point. The Reds have had Giants hitters heads in the toilet all series until today. Reds turn to regain the upper hand tomorrow.

OldRightHander
10-10-2012, 10:27 PM
Score more than 1 run in game 3 and we're not even having this conversation. Possibly we're talking about whether or not Cueto would be able to make it back to pitch in the NLCS. Then today they left 10 runners on base. I know Leake was off, but you have to wonder how things might have turned out if a few of those stranded runners had made it home. Either way, if you had asked me during the first inning of game 1 if I would take my chances with a rested Latos at home for game 5, I think I would have taken that. I'm still cautiously optimistic about tomorrow and I think this team is just resilient enough to possibly turn some heads in the NLCS as well. Either way, it sure beats being a Cubs or Astros fan.

Blitz Dorsey
10-10-2012, 10:32 PM
Score more than 1 run in game 3 and we're not even having this conversation. Possibly we're talking about whether or not Cueto would be able to make it back to pitch in the NLCS. Then today they left 10 runners on base. I know Leake was off, but you have to wonder how things might have turned out if a few of those stranded runners had made it home. Either way, if you had asked me during the first inning of game 1 if I would take my chances with a rested Latos at home for game 5, I think I would have taken that. I'm still cautiously optimistic about tomorrow and I think this team is just resilient enough to possibly turn some heads in the NLCS as well. Either way, it sure beats being a Cubs or Astros fan.

Re: Stranded runners. That's the No. 1 reason why our beloved WAR is a flawed stat. How many managers, fans, reporters, etc. always say "They just didn't hit with men in scoring position"? Quite a bit. To ignore the ability to hit well with runners on base is foolish. The pitcher is trying harder to make pitches, the batter is pressing because he knows it's a big situation ... yet WAR completely ignores this.

RBIs are important. And I consider myself more of a sabermatrician than I do "old-school" thinker. But to completely discredit RBIs is foolish.

OldRightHander
10-10-2012, 10:50 PM
I'm somewhere in the middle. I don't frankly understand a lot of the new stats, but I understand that there is a level of understanding about the game that those metrics can provide. I'll just leave it up to those who understand them better and can expound on them to hash it out and I can come in here and read.

With that said, there are times I can watch a game and see that there is something wrong with the offense when you leave that many runners on. Even if you say that there's no difference over a large sample between hitting with runners in scoring position or not, a good offense is going to leave fewer of those guys on base over the long haul simply by virtue of being better hitters in all situations. But I also can't ignore the fact that there are some micro situations where the hits just don't seem to be there when they could do some damage, and that's pretty frustrating as a fan when a game or a series can hinge on a couple of those situations.

edabbs44
10-10-2012, 10:51 PM
It doesn't rank very high, I don't think.

Kc61
10-10-2012, 10:55 PM
Leake today was probably a necessary decision. Now Latos is rested, Arroyo is semi-rested, the good relievers are all rested. The pitching side is in good shape for this game.

It's up to the offense. I posted, as did others, in mid-April a concern about the offense. We all know the offense has been middling this year, good with power, not good with OBP and BA, and that ain't changing overnight.

So the Reds need to find a way to score four or five runs tomorrow. If they don't, then the problem is obvious and should be fixed for next year. If they do, we likely go to the NLCS.

Go Reds.

Vottomatic
10-11-2012, 12:07 AM
At what point does Jacoby get replaced as hitting instructor?

AtomicDumpling
10-11-2012, 12:45 AM
I don't think the Reds had much choice but to use Mike Leake in Game 4. The only (possibly) better option was to use a bullpen day. If they had put Cingrani on the roster instead of dead meat Cairo they could have had Cingrani make the start without having to remove Cueto from the roster and make him ineligible for the next series.

Where does using Miguel Cairo as your first pinch hitter in a critical RBI situation in a tight game rank on the stupidity scale?

GAC
10-11-2012, 07:54 AM
5 Reasons Mat Latos Will Pitch a Gem in Must-Win Game 5

Watch this slide show.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1366720-reds-vs-giants-nlds-5-reasons-mat-latos-will-pitch-a-gem-in-must-win-game-5


He reminds me a lot of a guy named Rob Dibble. Many Reds fans know him as the hot-headed, flame-throwing member of "The Nasty Boys." He thrived on the pressure, and he mowed down opponents—especially those he didn't like.

Well folks, Latos really doesn't like the Giants. No, really. He doesn't. He once signed a baseball "I hate SF!"

To sum things up, all and all it would be a wise bet to put your money on Mat Latos to come up big once again. Expect a dominant, gem of a performance.

_Sir_Charles_
10-11-2012, 09:51 AM
Totally and completely disagree with you Blitz. Sorry. Leake was the right call. Not the right outcome, but the right call. Looking at the box score and highlights I'm surprised he didn't get pulled a bit earlier, but that's the only problem I have with Leake. (using Arredondo however....:explode:)

Sea Ray
10-11-2012, 10:00 AM
The point is, the Reds should have gone all-out to win Game 4 IMO. It's like they wanted to hold something back "just in case." Not a good strategy in the playoffs.

If that's the way you feel then you must really think the Giants were stupid for not throwing Cain yesterday because it was definitely must win for them. Instead they threw a 5 inning pitcher

CySeymour
10-11-2012, 10:04 AM
Starting Leake was the right move, and really the only move. The Reds mistake was letting him try to go through the order a 3rd time. Even if they sent him out there to try, LeCure should have been warming up to start the inning and Leake pulled a lot sooner. But, it wasn't like the offense was helping out much.

PuffyPig
10-11-2012, 10:31 AM
* He was completely left off the NLDS roster -- it's evident how the team felt abot him.

* Latos only pitched four innings on Saturday. He EASILY could have pitched on 3 days rest. It's not like he had a 100+ pitch outing last time out. This would not have been the typical "3 days rest."

* Very often in playoffs, teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway.

* Playing to set yourself up well for Game 5 or setting yourself up for the NLCS is a great way to lose Game 4. You need to go for the kill when you can.

Latos was the obvious call. Ridiculous that Leake was given the start. Way to overthink this one!

1. He was left off the roster becuase it was felt we only needed 4 starters, and better to keep releivers who were used to relieving.

2. Pitching on 3 days rest is not just about how many pitches you threw the last game. It's about conditioning your arm and routine. Obviusly the Reds and Latos felt it made a difference.

3. When was the last time any team went with a 3 man rotation, pitching every starter on 3 days rest?

4. Unless the Reds felt comfortable pitching Arroyo on 3 days rest, what difference did it make? You would still be short for game 5. Better to have Latos on normal rest and go with Leake in game 4. The Reds looked at this as what was going to make them stronger for the 2 games combined. Unless they wanted Arroyo on 3 days rest, it would have been foolish to go with Latos in game 4.

PuffyPig
10-11-2012, 10:41 AM
Re: Stranded runners. That's the No. 1 reason why our beloved WAR is a flawed stat. How many managers, fans, reporters, etc. always say "They just didn't hit with men in scoring position"? Quite a bit. To ignore the ability to hit well with runners on base is foolish. The pitcher is trying harder to make pitches, the batter is pressing because he knows it's a big situation ... yet WAR completely ignores this.

RBIs are important. And I consider myself more of a sabermatrician than I do "old-school" thinker. But to completely discredit RBIs is foolish.


I beleive it's somewhat discredited because in large sample sizes RBI's tend to correlate to RBI opportunities rather than "clutch hitting".

FWIW, the Giants did not get their first hit with runners in scoring position until the 5th inning last night, when the scored their 5th run of the game, and 9th of the series.

REDREAD
10-11-2012, 10:55 AM
2. Most teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway in the postseason.

Not really. Most teams use a 4 man rotation. The Giants did.
The Giants didn't panic and start Cain on short rest.

Starting Leake was the right idea, IMO. It gave us the best chance to split the last 2 games.

Even if Cain has his "A" game, Latos has the ability to match him.

RedsManRick
10-11-2012, 11:07 AM
* He was completely left off the NLDS roster -- it's evident how the team felt abot him.

* Latos only pitched four innings on Saturday. He EASILY could have pitched on 3 days rest. It's not like he had a 100+ pitch outing last time out. This would not have been the typical "3 days rest."

* Very often in playoffs, teams go with a 3-man rotation anyway.

* Playing to set yourself up well for Game 5 or setting yourself up for the NLCS is a great way to lose Game 4. You need to go for the kill when you can.

Latos was the obvious call. Ridiculous that Leake was given the start. Way to overthink this one!

Hindsight is 20/20. If you start Latos and he struggles, then what?

I'd rather have Leake and Latos on full rest than Latos and Arroyo on short rest.

Bumstead
10-11-2012, 11:22 AM
Not sure starting him was the issue. Still having him in the 5th inning to get shelled again was just comical. Then pinch hitting with Cairo? Seriously? Why is he on the roster again? I'm just glad Ondrusek wasn't around to be put in...Navarro...sigh...is there anyone on this board that thinks Hanigan was tired? I don't care if he had only caught Leake twice. Play the best players! It's the playoffs!

Way to force game 5 Dusty by taking away our chances to keep it close and maybe have a chance to win.

Bum

westofyou
10-11-2012, 11:44 AM
Latos came down with a nasty case of allergy-related congestion, forcing Baker's hand toward Leake

steig
10-11-2012, 01:32 PM
I would have started Cueto, load him up on pain killers, icy hot what ever it takes so he doesn't feel that oblique tweak on each pitch. At worst he has a rough 5 inning outing and you are in the same spot as today.

westofyou
10-11-2012, 01:33 PM
I would have started Cueto, load him up on pain killers, icy hot what ever it takes so he doesn't feel that oblique tweak on each pitch. At worst he has a rough 5 inning outing and you are in the same spot as today.

At worse he favors it and ruins his arm.

steig
10-11-2012, 01:34 PM
At worse he favors it and ruins his arm.

One hard start on the body won't destroy his arm. It's the postseason.

westofyou
10-11-2012, 01:36 PM
One hard start on the body won't destroy his arm. It's the postseason.

Cascade injuries are real, many a pitcher has destroyed his arm favoring one.

Form is important, this isn't a movie

Also, isn't pain killers essentially performance enhancing drugs too ?

steig
10-11-2012, 01:38 PM
Cascade injuries are real, many a pitcher has destroyed his arm favoring one.

Form is important, this isn't a movie

Curt Schilling's bloody sock says "hello"

westofyou
10-11-2012, 01:38 PM
Curt Schilling's bloody sock says "hello"

Dizzy Deans big toe says hi back