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cinreds21
10-11-2012, 06:38 PM
Under Contract:
Hanigan, Ryan: $2,050,000
Masset, Nick: $3,100,000
Cueto, Johnny: $7,400,000
Arroyo, Bronson: $11,500,000
Chapman, Aroldis: $2,00,000
Phillips, Brandon: $10,000,000
Votto, Joey: $17,000,000
Bruce, Jay: $7,500,000
Marshall, Sean: $4,500,000

Pre-Aribtration;
Frazier, Todd
Mesoraco, Devin
Cozart, Zack
Paul, Xavier
Heisey, Chris
LeCure, Sam
Hoover, J.J.
Cingrani, Tony
Ondrusek, Logan
Redmond, Todd
Gregorius, Didi
Lutz, Donald
Rodriguez, Henry
Soto, Neftali
Negron, Kris
Phipps, Denis

Arbitration-Eligible:
Valdez, Wilson
Bailey, Homer
Leake, Mike
Latos, Mat
Simon, Alfredo
Arredondo, Josť
Bray, Bill
Stubbs, Drew

Option:
Madson, Ryan: $11,000,000 Team Option, $2,500,000 buyout
Ludwick, Ryan: $5,000,000 Team Option, $500,000 buyout

Free Agent:
Broxton, Jonathan
Rolen, Scott
Cairo, Miguel
Navarro, Dioner

edabbs44
10-11-2012, 07:06 PM
Isn't Ludwick on a mutual option?

Either way, looking good.

klw
10-11-2012, 07:08 PM
I really hope they are able to bring back Ludwick. He is a great fit for the team and has really been a great bat this year. He struggled early when his BABIP was so low but he was so clutch for so long. I wonder if he had not been hurt that last two weeks if the Reds would have ended up with the #1 seed. So many if's.

Caveat Emperor
10-11-2012, 08:04 PM
As long as I never see Mike Leake in a Reds uniform again, I'll be happy.

dsmith421
10-11-2012, 08:25 PM
As long as I never see Mike Leake in a Reds uniform again, I'll be happy.

Add Cairo and Stubbs.

camisadelgolf
10-11-2012, 08:27 PM
I believe Ondrusek will likely be a Super Two.

camisadelgolf
10-11-2012, 08:28 PM
Rolen is expected to retire.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/scott-rolen-expected-to-retire.html

Vottomatic
10-11-2012, 08:52 PM
I wish they could re-sign Broxton, Madson, and Navarro.
Move Chapman into the rotation if they re-sign Madson to be closer. I know the jury is still out on him coming back to his normal. I feel the starting rotation desperately needs a lefty.
Make a trade for a cleanup hitter. If not, re-sign Ludwick.
Make a trade for a true tablesetter. The 1 and 2 holes have been empty for too long.

dsmith421
10-11-2012, 09:02 PM
I think an upgrade at SS should also be on the table. Not convinced Cozart will ever be anything more than a .310 OBP guy, and that's just not good enough.

Wonderful Monds
10-11-2012, 09:20 PM
I think an upgrade at SS should also be on the table. Not convinced Cozart will ever be anything more than a .310 OBP guy, and that's just not good enough.

Sometimes it has to be good enough. Can't have above average OBP or offense from every position. Zack is lower on the list of spots that need to be upgraded.

Lower than CF, 3B, and depending on what Ryan Ludwick does, LF.

alloverjr
10-11-2012, 09:33 PM
Sometimes it has to be good enough. Can't have above average OBP or offense from every position. Zack is lower on the list of spots that need to be upgraded.

Lower than CF, 3B, and depending on what Ryan Ludwick does, LF.

Yeah, I'm fine with Cozart at SS provided he can hit 7/8 in the lineup. A real leadoff hitter to play either LF or CF and then move Phillips to the 2 hole. I'd prefer higher OB guys for both position at the sacrifice of power. This team this year was WAY too dependent on the long ball to win. They have enough power, especially in GABP, without needing to replace Ludwick with a power guy.

Somewhat concerned about 3B. Not sure Frazier's defense can be stomached an entire season.

Wonderful Monds
10-11-2012, 09:36 PM
Yeah, I'm fine with Cozart at SS provided he can hit 7/8 in the lineup. A real leadoff hitter to play either LF or CF and then move Phillips to the 2 hole. I'd prefer higher OB guys for both position at the sacrifice of power. This team this year was WAY too dependent on the long ball to win. They have enough power, especially in GABP, without needing to replace Ludwick with a power guy.

Somewhat concerned about 3B. Not sure Frazier's defense can be stomached an entire season.

I am too in regards to Frazier, and I don't think he is a starting caliber player offensively either. I like Frazier and don't want to be right about this. But after his tear in July/early August he kind of scuffled. Didn't hit but one HR for the rest of the year either.

dsmith421
10-11-2012, 10:02 PM
I am too in regards to Frazier, and I don't think he is a starting caliber player offensively either. I like Frazier and don't want to be right about this. But after his tear in July/early August he kind of scuffled. Didn't hit but one HR for the rest of the year either.

I tend to concur. I think Frazier is a nice guy to have around because of his versatility, but if there's a 3B solution out there, you take it and find a place for Todd.

By the way, I'm not saying cut bait on Cozart, I just think SS ought to be worth a look this offseason if there is a potential deal.

steig
10-11-2012, 10:09 PM
I tend to concur. I think Frazier is a nice guy to have around because of his versatility, but if there's a 3B solution out there, you take it and find a place for Todd.

By the way, I'm not saying cut bait on Cozart, I just think SS ought to be worth a look this offseason if there is a potential deal.

I agree on the 3rd base solution. I don't think it will happen because finding solutions at 3rd base is very difficult. But if it can be done I'll take my chances with Frazier in left.

Gallen5862
10-11-2012, 10:11 PM
I would try to resign Jonathan Broxton and Dioner Navarro. I would try to rework Ryan Madson's contract and do a deal with Ryan Ludwick.

alloverjr
10-11-2012, 10:19 PM
I would try to resign Jonathan Broxton and Dioner Navarro. I would try to rework Ryan Madson's contract and do a deal with Ryan Ludwick.

Broxton has to have a clause in his contract that states his pay is a direct inverse of his weight. That dude is obese. But, they are going to be shy in the bullpen next year (hoping Chapman moves to the rotation). Navarro, no thanks. Ludwick, depends on CF option. I say get that settled first, then address LF/Ludwick.

mth123
10-11-2012, 10:42 PM
I've seen a few people wanting to bring back Madsen. I've even seen some saying the Reds should exercise the $11 Million option. Madsen had his surgery on April 11, 2012. Chances are pretty good that he won't even be ready for opening day. He's probably more likely to start in extended spring training somewhere. then a rehab for a while with a June 1 or so return date. He's too big of a question mark for my taste. I certainly wouldn't go much more than $1 Million with incentives for the guy. I'm guessing Boras will be after a bigger payday and the Reds should probably move on. I'd just as soon give a bigger role to Lecure and add Hoover to the mix.

Non-Tender Arredondo, Ondrusek and Bray. Bing back Broxton. I'd look to add another lefty somehow. Masset is under contract so he may start out as the 12th man on the staff and see how it goes.

Broxton CL
Marshall LHSU
Hoover RHSU
Lecure RHMR
Acquisition LHMR
Masset Mop-up
Leake 6th starter

Latos
Cueto
Chapman
Bailey
Arroyo

If Chapman proves incapable of starting, he goes back to the closer role with the others pushed down a spot and Leake as the 5th starter. Corcino, Cingrani and Villareal provide decent rotation depth at AAA.

On the position side, one of Stubbs or Heisey needs to go with a lefty hitting lead-off type CF (maybe a platoon guy) in his place. I'd try to bring Ludwick back and plan on Didi as a LH IF option. Valdez should be non-tendered and a journeyman minor league SS with a steady glove pursued for depth at AAA..

LH CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Ludwick LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Mesoraco C

Heisey 4th OF
Paul LHPH/OF
Didi IF
Vet Corner Bench Bat

PuffyPig
10-11-2012, 11:17 PM
As long as I never see Mike Leake in a Reds uniform again, I'll be happy.

So, if Leake is traded with Chapman, Latos and Cueto to the Cards for Carpenter and Descalso, you're the tops?

dsmith421
10-11-2012, 11:21 PM
So, if Leake is traded with Chapman, Latos and Cueto to the Cards for Carpenter and Descalso, you're the tops?

Is this supposed to be funny?

alloverjr
10-11-2012, 11:23 PM
So, if Leake is traded with Chapman, Latos and Cueto to the Cards for Carpenter and Descalso, you're the tops?

Anything to make the Cards better, I'm good with.

kbrake
10-11-2012, 11:49 PM
Am I the only one who thinks bringing Ludwick back could be a bad idea? I feel like we might have just gotten the last good season he'll have and would regret bringing him back.

*BaseClogger*
10-12-2012, 12:09 AM
I don't necessarily think this will be Ludwick's last productive season, but I wouldn't go above 2/$12MM with him either.

My top priority would be CF. Ship off Stubbs for whatever you can get--surely he still has enough value to garner a decent prospect. I'd be willing to unload a package of Mesoraco and Leake to get a true impact player. Dexter Fowler and Jacoby Ellsbury seem like possible fits. For a guy like Ellsbury who is expensive, I would insist they eat Masset's contract.

If Ludwick isn't coming back, Frazier can man either LF or 3B. There's lots of LF out there. If we get that great CF, I wouldn't be opposed to somebody like Jack Hannahan for 3B. He's LHH who's good defensively and adequate offensively.

I'd non-tender Bray and possibly Ondrusek. Not sure how much to expect him to earn--maybe like ~$800M? Looks like Arredondo is already under contract for 2013. I don't see Madson or Broxton returning. I would start Cingrani as a SP in AAA, but he could be a weapon out of the bullpen in the second half of 2013.

You try to bring Navarro back if you trade Mesoraco, but it's no that big of a deal. Backup catchers are backup catchers. I imagine Cairo won't be back, whether he retires or is simply not offered a contract. You don't tender Valdez, which means we'll need two new utility IF. One should be a veteran brought in from the outside, the other the youngster who performs the best in the Spring. Heisey and Paul make a great tandem of backup OF and pinch-hitters.

Whadaya think?

redsfaninbsg
10-12-2012, 12:12 AM
Am I the only one who thinks bringing Ludwick back could be a bad idea? I feel like we might have just gotten the last good season he'll have and would regret bringing him back.

I'd bring Ludwick back on a 1-2 year deal, nothing long-term. I would feel disappointed if they let him go, he was the only consistent power threat they had in the playoffs. (Granted Votto's power was zapped)

Caveat Emperor
10-12-2012, 12:17 AM
Rotation depth will be a big need this offseason. I highly doubt they'll get another year where all 5 starters make 161 of the 162 starts.

Superdude
10-12-2012, 12:29 AM
Rotation depth will be a big need this offseason. I highly doubt they'll get another year where all 5 starters make 161 of the 162 starts.

Maybe pick up another Dontrelle or Jeff Francis type. I'd say the guaranteed weaknesses like center should be a much bigger priority than starter depth.

kbrake
10-12-2012, 01:18 AM
Rotation depth will be a big need this offseason. I highly doubt they'll get another year where all 5 starters make 161 of the 162 starts.

Corcino/Cingrani? Not sure what else there is. Not like they can spend a ton of money on SP. Some much bigger needs on this team. Once we find a decent 1 on the depth chart for CF I'll be more interested in finding a 6 and 7 SP.

vic715
10-12-2012, 04:11 AM
First of all I would keep Chapman right where he is.I hope they can sign Broxton and Ludwick.Trade for Span and sign Kevin Youkilis to play third.Frazier and Gregorous can take Cairo and Valdez's place on the bench.

RedEye
10-12-2012, 08:27 AM
As long as I never see Mike Leake in a Reds uniform again, I'll be happy.

Really? This seems a bit extreme, don't you think?

oneupper
10-12-2012, 08:45 AM
Am I the only one who thinks bringing Ludwick back could be a bad idea? I feel like we might have just gotten the last good season he'll have and would regret bringing him back.

I hated the Ludwick signing and he proved me wrong. That said, we may have caught lightning in a bottle with him in 2012.
The point is probably moot. Someone will give him 3/22 or even 4/30 and he's gone.

oneupper
10-12-2012, 08:46 AM
Rotation depth will be a big need this offseason. I highly doubt they'll get another year where all 5 starters make 161 of the 162 starts.

Can't LeCure be the spot starter as he was previously? Or is he now too engrained in the BP?

Caveat Emperor
10-12-2012, 09:23 AM
Really? This seems a bit extreme, don't you think?

I've disliked the draft pick since go. He doesn't throw hard enough and isn't deceptive enough to consistently retire major league hitters. He's one of those guys who can look very good when he's on, but his margin for error (due to low velocity) is so slim that it's tough to rely on him to be anything.

corkedbat
10-12-2012, 01:20 PM
I've disliked the draft pick since go. He doesn't throw hard enough and isn't deceptive enough to consistently retire major league hitters. He's one of those guys who can look very good when he's on, but his margin for error (due to low velocity) is so slim that it's tough to rely on him to be anything.

Never been that bullish on Leake. Always seen him as a high floor/low ceiling guy. Fourth starter (maybe third on a bad team) tops. Might turn into a Bronson-type with age, but I'm not interested in waiting if he will bring a solid bat in a package.

If the Reds would feel comfortable with David DeJesus as a semi-regular CF, I could see them revisiting the rumored Garza/DeJesus deal this offseason. Leake, Stubbs, Ondrusek and a youngster I probably wouldn't want to part with (Corcino?) maybe. Not sure a DeJesus/Heisey combo in CF is what we would want though.

REDREAD
10-12-2012, 02:45 PM
I've seen a few people wanting to bring back Madsen. I've even seen some saying the Reds should exercise the $11 Million option. Madsen had his surgery on April 11, 2012.

I concur. I would be willing to bring back Madsen on a rehab contract (with an option for next year), but realistically, if he pitches at all next year, it's unlikely he'll even be reliable.
I have no interest in rehabbing him for one year, and then he goes to another team in 2014..
I'd much rather invest money in Broxton, Ludwick or another player.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2012, 02:47 PM
I hated the Ludwick signing and he proved me wrong. That said, we may have caught lightning in a bottle with him in 2012.
The point is probably moot. Someone will give him 3/22 or even 4/30 and he's gone.
That's pretty optimistic for Ludwick. He's 34 years old and OPSed over .775 for the first time since 2008. Plus I think we all know GABP had a lot to do with that. I could see him getting a 2-year deal with an option, but there's no way he's getting a 4-year deal imho.

reds44
10-12-2012, 04:02 PM
I'm not going any longer than 2 years with Ludwick. He was great this year, but there's no chance I give him 3/22. I was thinking something like 2/14 or 2/16 seems fair.

I imagine you'll see Madson and Broxton brought back. Broxton as an insurance policy as Madson comes back from Tommy John. Chapman will be a starter for the first 3/4 months before they move him back to the pen to limit his innings. Leake starts the year in AAA. They might bring in another mariginal starter they can stash in AAA or in the bullpen too.

I doubt you'll see a major chance in CF because Hamilton will probably be up in September. They may try to go after a DeJesus type player. Hopefully they bring in a bench guy or two. With Rolen being gone and Frazier starting, the bench is even more depleted than it was all year.

Really, this is all I can see coming in from outside the organziation:
Maybe a CFer on a short deal
SP depth
Bench

oneupper
10-12-2012, 05:08 PM
That's pretty optimistic for Ludwick. He's 34 years old and OPSed over .775 for the first time since 2008. Plus I think we all know GABP had a lot to do with that. I could see him getting a 2-year deal with an option, but there's no way he's getting a 4-year deal imho.

Wishful thinking. Ludwick had a great year. He out-hit a good 75%or more of his peers. Guys like Ibanez, Ross, Werth and Carlos Lee are still getting paychecks and playing time.
Dude is going to get paid by someone. He'd be foolish not to cash in. My estimates will wind up being conservative.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2012, 05:41 PM
Over the past 4 seasons, he has an OPS+ of 106 i.e. slightly above average. His defense is below average. I agree that now is the time for him to cash in, but I really don't think Ludwick's going to get an offer that will carry him into his age-38 season.

Raul Ibanez - He's currently on a 1-year contract. The contract he signed before that--a 3-year deal for a 36-year-old--was considered by many to be ridiculous. On top of that, he had much better numbers Ludwick's leading up to the deal.

Carlos Lee - In hindsight, it was a horrible contract. He was 30 years old and coming off 4 straight 30-homer seasons when he signed it. He far exceeded what Ludwick has ever done.

Cody Ross - He has never signed a multi-year deal in his life, so I'm not sure how that helps your point.

Jayson Werth - I don't even know how you can compare Ludwick to Werth. Granted, it's considered to be one of dumbest contracts in baseball, but I don't think Ludwick will get offered 25% of the amount of Werth's contract.

TOBTTReds
10-13-2012, 12:02 PM
Gotta balance the lineup a bit with another LH bat, whether it's at 3B or LF. We were not good vs. RHP, and Stubbs was the biggest culprit.

Brutus
10-13-2012, 12:17 PM
This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

TOBTTReds
10-13-2012, 12:29 PM
This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

IIRC, he's a 1.0 WAR batter too.

Brutus
10-13-2012, 12:33 PM
IIRC, he's a 1.0 WAR batter too.

Yep. He can hit, run the bases and field his position on top of being a 200-inning fifth starter putting up league-average production.

But there are people that don't want that?

Kc61
10-13-2012, 12:42 PM
Yep. He can hit, run the bases and field his position on top of being a 200-inning fifth starter putting up league-average production.

But there are people that don't want that?

Of all the qualified pitchers in the NL, Leake allowed the highest line drive rate at 24.5%. Leake allowed a higher home run rate per nine innings than any Reds pitcher except for Ondrusek, Cingrani, Bray, and Redmond.

I like Leake. He is very competitive and can be a good ground ball type pitcher.

But he was hit hard this year and mostly allowed way too many homers for a pitcher of his type. And again he allowed homers in his playoff appearance.

IMO, Bailey has surpassed Leake right now and Mike really needs to step it up next year, if he's still a Red.

I'm no longer as high on him as you are. If the Reds convert Chapman to starting, I have no trouble dealing Leake or using him in relief.

On the other hand - and this showed in the playoffs - Leake and Latos are both now 24 years old. They are babies in terms of high end MLB pitchers. So they certainly both have lots of time to improve. And talent and determination. And will learn from the playoffs this year.

Watching CC last night, I realized how tough things were in the fourth and fifth games for the Reds, with such young pitchers throwing such big games.

TOBTTReds
10-13-2012, 01:32 PM
This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

IIRC, he's a 1.0 WAR batter too.

corkedbat
10-13-2012, 02:02 PM
This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

Not hatin' on him, just think he can (and should) be improved upon.

corkedbat
10-13-2012, 02:18 PM
I'm not going any longer than 2 years with Ludwick. He was great this year, but there's no chance I give him 3/22. I was thinking something like 2/14 or 2/16 seems fair.

I imagine you'll see Madson and Broxton brought back. Broxton as an insurance policy as Madson comes back from Tommy John. Chapman will be a starter for the first 3/4 months before they move him back to the pen to limit his innings. Leake starts the year in AAA. They might bring in another mariginal starter they can stash in AAA or in the bullpen too.

I doubt you'll see a major chance in CF because Hamilton will probably be up in September. They may try to go after a DeJesus type player. Hopefully they bring in a bench guy or two. With Rolen being gone and Frazier starting, the bench is even more depleted than it was all year.

Really, this is all I can see coming in from outside the organziation:
Maybe a CFer on a short deal
SP depth
Bench

I don't buy the "Chapman to the Pen" talk anymore. not after his dominant performance in the Closer role this year. Yeah, closer is mostly an over-rated position, but not necessarily when you get someone someone of Aroldis' caliber.

Anyone who thinks simply moving AC to the rotation gives you a slamdunk ACE is wildly optomistic. Part of his dominance in the pen is he world class velocity. Move him to the rotation and that becomes a more "pedestrian" 94-95 on the top end (not to mention how starting would affect his control and other factors). The other question is stamina. He needed to be "mini-strassberg'd" as it was this season. When would he need to be shutdown if asked to throw starters innings?

I could see them under-going a to-the-rotation experiment on a team that is not yet a contender, but the dominant bullpen was a large factor in the Reds success this year and no one was bigger than Aroldis. Will Walt risk that on an experiment? I don't see it. I think it is much move likely that he keeps aroldis where his is, instead of possibly weakening two spots that don't need to be risked by moving him.

I believe it is much more feasible and likely Jocketty keeps him right where he is and look outside the organization if he chooses to seek an upgrade over Leake.