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GoReds
10-15-2012, 08:07 PM
Homer had a terrific finish this year. His stock is probably high at the moment. IF the Reds entertained the idea to trade Homer, knowing he is not likely to sign a long-term deal (doesn't like pitching at the GABP), what could they expect in return? A Latos-type return?

DGullett35
10-15-2012, 08:17 PM
IMO I wouldnt trade him. I think we need Homer and he looks to be poised for a big year in 2013. I think that him not liking GABP is more of a media/fans thought about him and is probably overblown to an extent. Hes our 3rd starter and this rotation will need him. Bronson had an extremely effective year but i dont see him repeating everything he did in 2013. With that being said I do think Leake will be a whole lot better. No way do we get a haul like the Padres got for Homer. He has good trade value but not that good. Also we need major league starting pitching. Take a look at our depth and you'll find that there is hardly any unless you think Redmond or Villareal will be good next year. We have to keep what we have until the guys we have drafted are ready to take the hill in the big leagues. It will be hard for this staff to all pitch 200 innings and make 30 or more starts again. Its only happened a handful of times. Homer is a key to 2013 and Walts postgame news conference after game 5 he was praising Homer and looking forward to him continuing that success in 2013. sounds to me like the Reds want to keep him in the wishbone C.

dougdirt
10-15-2012, 08:52 PM
Let's sell high on Cueto too.

Or not.

Homer is going to make pennies on the dollar for his production next year if he can come even close to repeating what he did this year. You don't trade guys like that.

mdccclxix
10-15-2012, 08:53 PM
I think teams in bigger parks would be interested in Bailey, for sure. How much would he bring back is another matter. There is actually a decent amount of starting pitching on the market this year, so it may be best to hold on to Homer. I like the angle, though. I think to some extent Homer is a good story and provides definition to the Reds organizational identity. We all know his story.

Always Red
10-15-2012, 08:57 PM
Homer (and maybe even Cingrani) might be the cost for a guy like Fowler, who can lead off, play CF and get on base.

Move Chapman to the rotation next year, and you fill that hole. I don't think the Rockies would want Leake pitching in that ballpark.

dougdirt
10-15-2012, 09:00 PM
Homer (and maybe even Cingrani) might be the cost for a guy like Fowler, who can lead off, play CF and get on base.

Move Chapman to the rotation next year, and you fill that hole. I don't think the Rockies would want Leake pitching in that ballpark.

You fill that hole for about 150 innings. Then what?

kaldaniels
10-15-2012, 09:07 PM
I agree with Doug. The Reds can pencil 4 or 5 legit starters in for next year (depending on your thoughts on Leake/Chapman etc.). That puts them a step ahead of most teams. Let's keep it that way.

If we can get Ludwick back, fill the Rolen vacancy with a decent backup to Todd, and marginally upgrade Cairo and Valdez...I'd be happy to head into next year with that. The foundation is laid.

An upgrade in CF would be a bonus. And no doubt always be on the lookout for affordable upgrades/trades.

corkedbat
10-15-2012, 09:13 PM
I believe that Walt will move to upgrade leake's spot in the rotation. If you then deal Homer you have to come up with two quality starters. I don't go to ST with Cingrani or Corcino in my Opening Day rotation and I believe moving Aroldis to the rotation would be very ill-advised at this point.

kbrake
10-15-2012, 09:34 PM
You fill that hole for about 150 innings. Then what?

In your opinion how far away is Hamilton? Why are people talking about unloading the strength of the team, SP, for a CF when the future can't be that far away.

Always Red
10-15-2012, 09:41 PM
You fill that hole for about 150 innings. Then what?

I agree, there is no guarantee Chapman will ever be as good a SP as he was a reliever this year, and no way does he go more than 150 IP next year, if that much.

I also keep Homer; I was just pointing out what a good young leadoff CF might cost.

One more year of Stubbs, hitting 8th, and waiting on Hamilton? I think we'll see a lot of Hamilton leading off and playing CF in Goodyear next March.

Vottomatic
10-15-2012, 09:43 PM
I've proposed some wild ideas on the other thread, but I agree. If they can get Fowler to lead off or bat second to play CF, and get rid of Stubbs low OBP and K's, I'll be tickled to death.

Sure, re-sign Ludwick. Bolster the bench. Stick with the 5 starters. Try and keep the bullpen intact with maybe a mild upgrade on Arredondo.

I can see standing pat with just upgrading CF.

Then you have Cingrani and Corcino maturing at triple A to take the place of Arroyo in 2014.

Hamilton maturing at triple A to hopefully be a factor sooner than later.

I get the patience, grasshopper way of thinking.

SunDeck
10-15-2012, 09:53 PM
While I understand the need to fill some holes, especially up the middle, I remind myself that nothing is more important up the middle of the field than pitching. The Reds have a shot at a wicked good rotation and I want to see them stick with it.

mbgrayson
10-15-2012, 10:00 PM
Homer (and maybe even Cingrani) might be the cost for a guy like Fowler, who can lead off, play CF and get on base.

Move Chapman to the rotation next year, and you fill that hole. I don't think the Rockies would want Leake pitching in that ballpark.

Nope, keep Homer. We have that guy (Fowler), only better, already. His name is Billy Hamilton, and he is playing CF in the AFL right now.

dougdirt
10-15-2012, 10:03 PM
Nope, keep Homer. We have that guy (Fowler), only better, already. His name is Billy Hamilton, and he is playing CF in the AFL right now.

Dexter Fowler has a 117 OPS+ last year. In the Majors. Billy Hamilton doesn't have 117 at bats in AAA (or any for that matter).

Kc61
10-15-2012, 10:13 PM
Now that he's good, we're going to trade Homer?

Nah.

Here are the guys to trade - Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Gregorius, and either Cingrani or Corcino.

If you want to sell high, maybe Arroyo. Will never have this kind of value again and has one year left on his deal. Won't happen though.

Sea Ray
10-15-2012, 10:48 PM
What do you think the chances are that they'll shop Mesorasco? I'd think he would still have a great deal of value

Johnny Footstool
10-16-2012, 01:19 AM
Here are the guys to trade - Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Gregorius, and either Cingrani or Corcino.

Three below-average major leaguers, and three B-level prospects. Who would want them?

757690
10-16-2012, 01:31 AM
The Reds used 5 starters for every game save one this season. What the are odds that happens again?

Never have enough pitching. Keep 'em all, unless getting another starter back.

lidspinner
10-16-2012, 11:05 AM
you do not trade Cingrani or Corcino unless you are getting proven All star talent that is cheap....those 2 guys are the future of this club. you dont find guys with their make up to oftne..Cingrani might just be the guy who comes up mid to late season and carries this team off to the playoffs.....there is always a team that brings up that young stud late in the year that teams just havent seen and he usually does welll.....why cant Cingrani and Corcino be those guys....our starting 5 needs to be rested and who better to give them late year rest than 2 young studs? Guys, this team is shaping up to be a freaking powerhouse in the next few years.....we just need a few pieces to the puzzle and we are going to to go on a 3-5 year stretch like never seen before.

hebroncougar
10-16-2012, 11:14 AM
you do not trade Cingrani or Corcino unless you are getting proven All star talent that is cheap....those 2 guys are the future of this club. you dont find guys with their make up to oftne..Cingrani might just be the guy who comes up mid to late season and carries this team off to the playoffs.....there is always a team that brings up that young stud late in the year that teams just havent seen and he usually does welll.....why cant Cingrani and Corcino be those guys....our starting 5 needs to be rested and who better to give them late year rest than 2 young studs? Guys, this team is shaping up to be a freaking powerhouse in the next few years.....we just need a few pieces to the puzzle and we are going to to go on a 3-5 year stretch like never seen before.

Ok, serious question. It's July 31st, 2012 all over again. You can get a bat that could have gotten a big hit last Thursday. You sell either one of them in hindsight? I think I do.

Kc61
10-16-2012, 11:15 AM
So in the last three posts, Cingrani/Corcino are called B prospects and also called near untouchables. That's RedsZone, an array of opinions.

I think Gregorius and one of Cingrani/Corcino with, say, Heisey, would bring a solid major league starting player back.

If the Reds add a veteran starter, say in free agency, I think Leake can get you a good prospect and a good major league bench player.

Stubbs, I find it hard to judge his value. Will a team see his potential, or will it see his current batting statistics? My guess is he isn't worth too much, he'll be viewed as all field no hit.

IMO, Rolen, Stubbs, Heisey, Cairo, and Valdez are the guys the Reds should replace this year. Rolen really can't hack another full MLB season. Stubbs is a K machine. Heisey is another righty hitter with power but bad plate discipline who keeps the team's OBP down. Cairo seems done, Valdez simply can't hit.

Add Frazier to the starting lineup, re-sign Ludwick, add a lefty CF who makes contact and walks some (Denard Span maybe), and beef up the bench with decent guys, lefties and righties, and you will have significantly upgraded the offense IMO.

lollipopcurve
10-16-2012, 11:23 AM
Three below-average major leaguers, and three B-level prospects. Who would want them?

Cingrani, Corcino and Gregorius have a lot of value. Young SP prospects proven at AA and a 22-yr old SS prospect who plays excellent defense with a pretty high offensive ceiling. A lot to like there for any team looking to build up their talent base.

PuffyPig
10-16-2012, 12:05 PM
Three below-average major leaguers, and three B-level prospects. Who would want them?

Probably most teams in the MLB.

Even if you characterize the major leaguers as below average, every team has them and needs them.

And those B-level prospects have decent value.

Cueto would have been one of those so called B-level prospects at one time.

*BaseClogger*
10-16-2012, 12:09 PM
What do you think the chances are that they'll shop Mesorasco? I'd think he would still have a great deal of value

If he'd help net a Fowler-type player, I think you have to. The Reds are fully in win-now mode...

kbrake
10-16-2012, 12:22 PM
I know there are many here who do a better job following the minor leagues. Is there any chance that Cozart is the one we should look to move and keep Gregorious? Would Cozart bring back more value?

dfs
10-16-2012, 12:24 PM
The Reds are fully in win-now mode...


Are they?

If the reds "are fully in win-now mode," then does it make sense to wait a year for Billy Hamilton? or would they be more inclined to deal him for what they need right now?

I mean...if you resign Ryan Ludwick then there really is only one slot left for a high on-base percentage leadoff hitter to play next year. He's got to play centerfield.

Do you put Billy Hamilton on the table in order to get your centerfielder for next year?

kbrake
10-16-2012, 12:37 PM
Are they?

If the reds "are fully in win-now mode," then does it make sense to wait a year for Billy Hamilton? or would they be more inclined to deal him for what they need right now?

I mean...if you resign Ryan Ludwick then there really is only one slot left for a high on-base percentage leadoff hitter to play next year. He's got to play centerfield.

Do you put Billy Hamilton on the table in order to get your centerfielder for next year?

I think there is a key and important difference between win now and win only now. The front office is putting together a very solid core. Trading Hamilton at this point might help 2013 but how much would it hurt from 2014 on?

PuffyPig
10-16-2012, 01:40 PM
If he'd help net a Fowler-type player, I think you have to. The Reds are fully in win-now mode...


While they are in win-now mode, it's not like thay have a short expiration date.

They would only include Mes in a trade for a player they control for multiple years.

westofyou
10-16-2012, 01:50 PM
Holy Frank Lane

Sell everything


http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Frank_Lane

Reds1
10-16-2012, 04:22 PM
I agree with Doug. The Reds can pencil 4 or 5 legit starters in for next year (depending on your thoughts on Leake/Chapman etc.). That puts them a step ahead of most teams. Let's keep it that way.

If we can get Ludwick back, fill the Rolen vacancy with a decent backup to Todd, and marginally upgrade Cairo and Valdez...I'd be happy to head into next year with that. The foundation is laid.

An upgrade in CF would be a bonus. And no doubt always be on the lookout for affordable upgrades/trades.

I think you nailed it right here. ONly other thing I can add is I'd like to see another starter. You just can't depend on all 5 starters not getting hurt and we are a little week. I just have this feeling Chapman is staying in the closer role and I don't think it bothers me.

RedsBaron
10-16-2012, 05:15 PM
I'd keep Homer. He pencils in as the number 3 starting pitcher next season.

*BaseClogger*
10-16-2012, 06:36 PM
While they are in win-now mode, it's not like thay have a short expiration date.

They would only include Mes in a trade for a player they control for multiple years.

And how many years of control does Fowler have left?

*BaseClogger*
10-16-2012, 06:40 PM
Am I the only person seeing the window closing after 2015? When Votto and Phillips will have aged, Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Bailey, and Marshall will no longer be under contract. I think the next three seasons should be treated as nearly a "win-now" type opportunity for the Reds. I want a World Series by golly!

Wonderful Monds
10-16-2012, 07:24 PM
Am I the only person seeing the window closing after 2015? When Votto and Phillips will have aged, Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Bailey, and Marshall will no longer be under contract. I think the next three seasons should be treated as nearly a "win-now" type opportunity for the Reds. I want a World Series by golly!

That's a pretty pessimistic view of the team. Votto will still only be 32 around then. And I wouldn't guess they'll let ALL of those players walk. I imagine they'll go all out to keep a marquee player like Chapman, and they'll probably try to work something out with at least one of Latos and Cueto. Even so we have good young pitchers in the minors. Robert Stephenson might be a top 10 prospect. Corcino could be the next Cueto. And Cingrani could probably approximate Marshall to a good degree at the very least.

RED VAN HOT
10-16-2012, 08:17 PM
Can someone clarify Chapman's contract for me? He now has two years of MLS. After 2013, he should be arbitration eligible. That means the $3M on his 2014 contract will convert to a bonus and 2014 will become his first arbitration year. In 2015 he has a player option for $5M. If he refuses the option, then would he be electing instead arbitration year 2 for 2015? Would 2016 then be arbitration year 3 with FA delayed until 2017?

PuffyPig
10-16-2012, 09:02 PM
Can someone clarify Chapman's contract for me? He now has two years of MLS. After 2013, he should be arbitration eligible. That means the $3M on his 2014 contract will convert to a bonus and 2014 will become his first arbitration year. In 2015 he has a player option for $5M. If he refuses the option, then would he be electing instead arbitration year 2 for 2015? Would 2016 then be arbitration year 3 with FA delayed until 2017?

That is correct. We still control his contract for 4 more years.

RED VAN HOT
10-16-2012, 11:09 PM
That is correct. We still control his contract for 4 more years.

Thanks, Puffy.