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View Full Version : How much "FREE" money do the Reds have for the offseason?



RedTruck
10-18-2012, 11:20 PM
Broxton I'm assuming is gone??
Madson gone as well??
Ryan Ludwick potentially gone??
Scott Rolen gone?
Miguel Ciaro gone?

how much potential "spending" money do the reds have if all the free agents are not signed?

Would this give the reds the potential to have enough money to sign Micheal Bourne for CF, and Melky Cabrera for the outfield?

I would think Micheal Bourne will get a contract of roughly 5 years 50/60 million?
Melky Cabrera will probably recieve a 1 year contract for 3/4 million

Not sure if that leaves any pennies in the reds piggy bank though

I assume
Chapman resumes Madson closing role
Hoover takes over Broxton role

Have Didi Gregorious as a bench player, sign someone else on the cheap.

Because, lets be honest- a outfield of Melky, Bourne, and Bruce is something that would truly be special-defensive, and offensive wise.

HometownHero
10-19-2012, 01:01 AM
We don't really have any free money, most of the money coming off the books is going to go to guys who's contracts escalate next year and to our young guys heading into arbitration.

dMaus14
10-19-2012, 01:37 AM
Phillips - 10
Arroyo - 6.5
Votto - 17
Madson - 2.5
Cueto - 7.4
Bruce - 7.5
Chapman - 4.8
Marshall - 4.5
Bailey - Arb 2
Masset - 3.1
Ludwick - 0.5
Bray - Arb 3
Hanigan - 2.15
Valdez - Arb 2
Arredondo - 1.2
Latos - Arb 1
Stubbs - Arb 1
Leake - Arb 1
Heisey - 0.5
Ondrusek - 0.5
LeCure - 0.5
Simon - 0.5
Cozart - 0.5
Mesoraco - 0.5
Frazier - 0.5
Hoover - 0.5
Gregorius - 0.5

71.65 (2012 payroll was $87M)

Broxton made $4M in '12

HometownHero
10-19-2012, 02:15 AM
The Mat Latos arbitration is likely to get steep quick, Walt needs to explore signing him to a long term deal paying him early but buying out a couple years of his FA time and saving money in the long term.

Captain13
10-19-2012, 11:05 AM
The Mat Latos arbitration is likely to get steep quick, Walt needs to explore signing him to a long term deal paying him early but buying out a couple years of his FA time and saving money in the long term.

And Bailey too, if he can.

subnuke78
10-22-2012, 04:08 AM
Hey all! First time poster so take it easy on me! :)

These are the numbers I have scraped together and I'm not sure where the Reds are going to come up with any additional money..hope Bob will dig deep!

Starters
Arroyo - 7.666
Cueto - 7.400
Latos - Arb 1 (3.500?)
Bailey - Arb 2 (4.500?)
Leake - Arb 1 (2.000?)

Relievers
LeCure - 0.490
Simon - Arb 1 (0.800?)
Arredondo - 1.200
Marshall - 4.500
Masset - 3.100
Hoover - 0.490
Chapman - 4.708
Madson - 2.500 (buyout)

Infield
Cozart - 0.490
Frazier - 0.490
Phillips - 10.000
Votto - 19.000

Catcher
Hanigan - 2.150
Mesoroco - 0.490

Outfield
Bruce - 7.541
Heisey - Arb 1 (1.000?)
Ludwick - 0.500 (buyout) or 13.000/2?
Paul - Arb 1 (1.000?)

Those numbers come out to almost 92MM

Obviously the Arb numbers are a guess on my part..not sure how accurate those will be, but maybe we could strike for contracts with Latos and Bailey and back load them?

Additionally, I only have 4 infielders and 4 outfielders listed so are the others in-house? If we don't resign Ludwick..now we are down to 3 (sorry..I'm not a big Stubbs fan although he may be a cheaper option through arbitration than what he would bring us in a trade).

Any thoughts back to Pierre or Victorino? I also like Angel Pagan..not sure what his going rate as a FA will be though.

RedTruck
10-22-2012, 04:31 AM
Any thoughts back to Pierre or Victorino? I also like Angel Pagan..not sure what his going rate as a FA will be though.

Welcome to our humble abode:beerme:

An thanks for doing the research btw, much appreciated.

As for those players you mentioned. Pierre is decent, but is probably better fit as a off the bench type of player rather than a regular. His arm is shot, but still has good speed, and still can smack the ball on a regular basis.

But, if somehow jocketty does pursue Pierre I'd prefer it to be in a platoon situation, since Pierre can't hit lefties.

As for Victorino. He's overpriced, and is coming off an incredibly disappointing 2012. That said, he's an interesting name, albeit an overpriced one.

I prefer the other idea's brought by other users. I know in the other reds section they continously talk about a potential trade for Eric Young Jr. (apperantly it was a player that jocketty was targeting during the trade dead line) and have him platoon with say like Coco Crisp .

But so far the most realistic list I've seen for potential CF (to replace stubbs):

Eric Young Jr.
Juan Pierre
Shane Victorino
Dexter Fowler
Gurrado Parra
Coco Crisp

and few others that i probably forget.

The pickings are slim, and the demand for a top notch CF like Denard Span will probably require Billy Hamilton and than some.

That said, any of the above will probably make a huge difference in the CF position compared to Stubby

Todd Gack
10-22-2012, 07:36 AM
The Reds have committed 85 million for next year already including the raises due to Phillips, Arroyo, etc. Any major moves are likely to come via Free Agency or a bump in payroll.

sdwagers
10-22-2012, 08:53 AM
this.... and no thanks on Melky "PEDs" Cabera




But so far the most realistic list I've seen for potential CF (to replace stubbs):

Eric Young Jr.
Juan Pierre
Shane Victorino
Dexter Fowler
Gurrado Parra
Coco Crisp

muethibp
10-22-2012, 08:57 AM
For my own benefit I put this together last week - obviously it includes arbitration guesses and various assumptions (Homer extension, a Ludwick deal, that Chapman closes). Similar to the list above.


Cueto 7.4
Latos 3.2 (assuming arbitration)
Leake 1.3 (assuming arbitration)
Arroyo 12
Bailey 6 (assuming new deal)


Chapman 4.7
Masset 3.1
Hoover 0.5
Ondrusek 0.5
Marsall 4.5
Lecure 0.5
Bray 1 (assuming arbitration)


Votto 19
Phillips 10
Cozart 0.5
Frazier 0.5
BENCH 1.5
BENCH 1.5

Bruce 7.5
Stubbs 1.5 (assuming arbitration)
Ludwick 5 (assuming new deal)
Heisey 1.2 (assuming arbitration)
Paul 0.5

Hanigan 2.1
Mesoraco 0.5

Other - Madson buyout 2.5



Total: 98.5

subnuke78
10-22-2012, 08:44 PM
Bruce 7.5
Stubbs 1.5 (assuming arbitration)
Ludwick 5 (assuming new deal)
Heisey 1.2 (assuming arbitration)
Paul 0.5



I think our numbers are similar...I just don't want to think about the Stubbs/Heisey arrangement for next year. I think you keep one or the other. I don't think Heisey will ever be more than a 4th OF. I think he provides great value as a PH/give a regular a rest kind of guy.

Heisey (starter) .251/.308/.421 (.709)
Heisey (sub) .294/.350/.517 (.867) (obviously a smaller sample size)

Stubbs on the other hand just hasn't shown any consistency at the plate. I think his defense is above average and his speed is excellent, so he could be used in late innings for his defense...but I don't think that is worth the 1MM+ he gets through arbitration.

I think the bigger question is what kind of value does the rest of the league give for Stubbs...do they look at his numbers or his potential? I think if you sign him for one more year and he has similar results to '12, then you are really going to have a hard time getting a return for him.

alett12
10-23-2012, 09:25 AM
Broxton I'm assuming is gone??
Madson gone as well??
Ryan Ludwick potentially gone??
Scott Rolen gone?
Miguel Ciaro gone?

how much potential "spending" money do the reds have if all the free agents are not signed?

Would this give the reds the potential to have enough money to sign Micheal Bourne for CF, and Melky Cabrera for the outfield?

I would think Micheal Bourne will get a contract of roughly 5 years 50/60 million?
Melky Cabrera will probably recieve a 1 year contract for 3/4 million

Not sure if that leaves any pennies in the reds piggy bank though

I assume
Chapman resumes Madson closing role
Hoover takes over Broxton role

Have Didi Gregorious as a bench player, sign someone else on the cheap.

Because, lets be honest- a outfield of Melky, Bourne, and Bruce is something that would truly be special-defensive, and offensive wise.

I have the feeling all of them will be gone and good riddance, Ludwick won't have a season anywhere close to what he had this year and he'll be looking for a Josh Willingham type deal. I don't want to see Micheal Bourn in Cincinnati when Billy Hamilton could be one year away from playing in CF. I have never been a fan of Melky nor do I want to see him in a Reds uniform. Paul can handle LF and Heisey could easily control CF if given the chance. Gregorious should spend next year in louisville and should not be on the bench at all that would be the role Cozart shifts into when Gregorious is ready to play at a big league level.

muethibp
10-23-2012, 10:42 AM
I think our numbers are similar...I just don't want to think about the Stubbs/Heisey arrangement for next year. I think you keep one or the other. I don't think Heisey will ever be more than a 4th OF. I think he provides great value as a PH/give a regular a rest kind of guy.

Heisey (starter) .251/.308/.421 (.709)
Heisey (sub) .294/.350/.517 (.867) (obviously a smaller sample size)

Stubbs on the other hand just hasn't shown any consistency at the plate. I think his defense is above average and his speed is excellent, so he could be used in late innings for his defense...but I don't think that is worth the 1MM+ he gets through arbitration.

I think the bigger question is what kind of value does the rest of the league give for Stubbs...do they look at his numbers or his potential? I think if you sign him for one more year and he has similar results to '12, then you are really going to have a hard time getting a return for him.

The third fourth and fifth outfield spots are going to be filled by someone. I have Stubbs, Heisey, and Paul in there. If you want to put someone else in that spot, fine, but who? There are no realistic organizational candidates (I suppose you could call Frazier the LF but there's no organizational candidate to play 3B so that plugs one hole only to see another spring open). So then you're out in the market where you're either going to spend more than Heisey/Stubbs are set to make or end up with replacement level type production for the same cost as Heisey/Stubbs and likely without the high ceilings that Heisey/Stubbs still arguably have.

So, because there are no other candidates and outside options don't save money and keeping the team intact provides for consistency and chemistry, I am fairly confident that Stubbs, Heisey, Bruce, and Paul are all on the opening day roster.

alett12
10-23-2012, 11:35 AM
The third fourth and fifth outfield spots are going to be filled by someone. I have Stubbs, Heisey, and Paul in there. If you want to put someone else in that spot, fine, but who? There are no realistic organizational candidates (I suppose you could call Frazier the LF but there's no organizational candidate to play 3B so that plugs one hole only to see another spring open). So then you're out in the market where you're either going to spend more than Heisey/Stubbs are set to make or end up with replacement level type production for the same cost as Heisey/Stubbs and likely without the high ceilings that Heisey/Stubbs still arguably have.

So, because there are no other candidates and outside options don't save money and keeping the team intact provides for consistency and chemistry, I am fairly confident that Stubbs, Heisey, Bruce, and Paul are all on the opening day roster.

I agree with you but there is an organizational candidate for 3B, Henry Rodriguez, if he has an astounding spring training would give him a good shot at the 3B spot because he is a switch hitter.

subnuke78
10-23-2012, 10:12 PM
So, because there are no other candidates and outside options don't save money and keeping the team intact provides for consistency and chemistry, I am fairly confident that Stubbs, Heisey, Bruce, and Paul are all on the opening day roster.

The reason I don't like it is because we aren't solving our OBP issues. Maybe I'm being ridiculous for trying to "look for answers" because we did have 97 wins last year LOL, but I think if we are looking for a fix then the most glaring hole is the OBP. As good as Hamilton is, I'm not ready to say he's our CF come the All Star Break.

If we could get Luddy back for 13MM/2 with a team option for the third year, then we can look for that fill. I like Angel Pagan, but I don't think we will be able to compete with the amount he will be offered, but maybe Dexter Fowler at around 4MM? Then we are aligned with Luddy, new CF, Bruce, Paul, Heisey. Like I said originally, Bob is going to have to dig a little deeper, but we have already increased our payroll about 30MM over the past six years...whats a few more! :thumbup:

All that being said...you are probably right and no moves will be made..if I only had 100MM to play with! :D

scott91575
10-24-2012, 07:05 AM
For my own benefit I put this together last week - obviously it includes arbitration guesses and various assumptions (Homer extension, a Ludwick deal, that Chapman closes). Similar to the list above.


Cueto 7.4
Latos 3.2 (assuming arbitration)
Leake 1.3 (assuming arbitration)
Arroyo 12
Bailey 6 (assuming new deal)


Chapman 4.7
Masset 3.1
Hoover 0.5
Ondrusek 0.5
Marsall 4.5
Lecure 0.5
Bray 1 (assuming arbitration)


Votto 19
Phillips 10
Cozart 0.5
Frazier 0.5
BENCH 1.5
BENCH 1.5

Bruce 7.5
Stubbs 1.5 (assuming arbitration)
Ludwick 5 (assuming new deal)
Heisey 1.2 (assuming arbitration)
Paul 0.5

Hanigan 2.1
Mesoraco 0.5

Other - Madson buyout 2.5



Total: 98.5

Arroyo has a deferred deal. His contract for next year is for $3 million. The rest of the money if for future years. He will get something close to $2 million per year after next year until 2021. Of course, IIRC, Rolen also has some deferred money. Not sure how much there.

Oh, and Joey Votto is making $17 million next year. So you can subtract $11 million from your total. Of course I bet Ludwick makes more than $5 million unless they defer some of that money, although I am not sure Bailey gets $6 million unless they somehow sign him for more than a 1 or 2 year deal (I don't think Bailey wants to stay in Cincy). I hate to say it, but they should deal Bailey. His stock is high, and he doesn't want to pitch in GABP. Yet that is a different discussion.

muethibp
10-24-2012, 01:32 PM
Arroyo has a deferred deal. His contract for next year is for $3 million. The rest of the money if for future years. He will get something close to $2 million per year after next year until 2021. Of course, IIRC, Rolen also has some deferred money. Not sure how much there.

Oh, and Joey Votto is making $17 million next year. So you can subtract $11 million from your total. Of course I bet Ludwick makes more than $5 million unless they defer some of that money, although I am not sure Bailey gets $6 million unless they somehow sign him for more than a 1 or 2 year deal (I don't think Bailey wants to stay in Cincy). I hate to say it, but they should deal Bailey. His stock is high, and he doesn't want to pitch in GABP. Yet that is a different discussion.

Cots has Votto making $19 next year ($17 in salary, $2 as part of the signing bonus). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=109

I also suspect that the Reds set aside the deferred money owed to Arroyo out of next year's budget. That has generally been their approach. Even if not, Cots has Arroyo at $6.5 owed next year, not the $3 you say.

alett12
10-25-2012, 10:03 AM
I feel like the sooner the Reds get Arroyo off the books the better no matter how much he is making.

texasdave
10-25-2012, 10:40 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#LsKqOQpiZfy62Lqi.99

Arb numbers per MLBTraderumors.com. Some folks are gonna be making a lot more than one might think if these are anywhere close to being correct.

UK Reds Fan
10-25-2012, 10:59 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#LsKqOQpiZfy62Lqi.99

Arb numbers per MLBTraderumors.com. Some folks are gonna be making a lot more than one might think if these are anywhere close to being correct.

If those are accurate to some degree...I have a hard time keeping Stubbs on the roster at 2.9M. Moving him and a Cingrani (or Leake at 2M) for a higher priced and legit LF is not a bad idea vs. the worst hitting CF in baseball.

alett12
10-25-2012, 11:05 AM
If those are accurate to some degree...I have a hard time keeping Stubbs on the roster at 2.9M. Moving him and a Cingrani (or Leake at 2M) for a higher priced and legit LF is not a bad idea vs. the worst hitting CF in baseball.

I do not touch Cingrani or Leake, I would deal Corcino first. And I would rather see Heisey and Paul in the outfield screw high priced outfielders just give them the chance. As for Stubbs I see 2.9 as what he'll be shooting for but I see no way an arbitrator goes with his side unless the Reds offer like 500k which I don't see as an unfair offer considering his bat.

dMaus14
10-25-2012, 12:56 PM
I think the problem with our team this past year was OBP and the bench. Our bullpen was outstanding as was our starting pitching. Defense was amazing and all three of those facets led us to 97 wins. But I think the difference between the Giants/Cards this postseason and the Reds was their bench. Look how the Giants are performing after losing Melky. Look at how the Cards lose Beltran for a game and Holliday for a game and the subs produce.

I defended Stubbs last off season but he needs to go. What about trading him to Houston for Jed Lowrie. You save money, he's a switch hitter with some pop and can play all infield positions. That kills so many birds with one stone. LH bench bat, young experienced INF back up, we don't have Cairo and Stubbs is gone. I think Houston would go for it because Stubbs has always played well in Houston.

OneManBand
10-25-2012, 08:58 PM
I'd be ok with a roster next year that didn't have the names Bray, Stubbs, Heisey, or Leake. Weather they trade or non tender them. This team can spend $7.5-8 Million dollars else where. All MLB teams are receiving $14 Million dollars from ESPN as part of their agreement with the MLB. Making moves is probably what we will see this offseason as ways to improve.

vottofan4life
10-27-2012, 11:45 AM
With mention that Mike Moustakas might be available at the right price why not trade Leake, Stubbs, and say Ondrusek over to the Royals for Moustakas and then sign Victorino or Pagan to man center field along with Heisey.

alett12
10-27-2012, 02:18 PM
I'd be ok with a roster next year that didn't have the names Bray, Stubbs, Heisey, or Leake. Weather they trade or non tender them. This team can spend $7.5-8 Million dollars else where. All MLB teams are receiving $14 Million dollars from ESPN as part of their agreement with the MLB. Making moves is probably what we will see this offseason as ways to improve.

What is wrong with Heisey and Leake? They aren't that expensive, and they are both worth much more than Stubbs

muethibp
10-28-2012, 08:54 PM
What is wrong with Heisey and Leake? They aren't that expensive, and they are both worth much more than Stubbs


I agree, particularly as to Leake. Lumping him in with Stubbs -who I defend as much as I can - is plain silly and shows how spoiled with pitching we all must have become. Leake is solid, particularly in his role. And if he had been on the 2005 team, he probably would have started opening day (certainly would have pitched in the first series).

alett12
10-29-2012, 02:11 PM
I agree, particularly as to Leake. Lumping him in with Stubbs -who I defend as much as I can - is plain silly and shows how spoiled with pitching we all must have become. Leake is solid, particularly in his role. And if he had been on the 2005 team, he probably would have started opening day (certainly would have pitched in the first series).

I can how ever see Leake starting next year in the pen with Cingrani in the rotation if Cingrani has a great spring and Leake has a poor one.