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Krusty
10-20-2012, 08:13 PM
With Oakland acquiring Chris Young to play center next season, Crisp could be available in a deal. He will be in the second year of a two year deal with an option for 2014. He could make a decent stopgap in center till Hamilton is ready to take over.

Do you think he is a better option in center and leading off than Stubbs?

Johnny Footstool
10-20-2012, 08:18 PM
Yes. I thought the Reds should have acquired him last year.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 08:21 PM
The Reds could stick Chris Heisey in center next year and do most of what Coco Crisp does but for cheaper. So that kind of acquisition seems redundant to me.

mattfeet
10-20-2012, 08:25 PM
The Reds could stick Chris Heisey in center next year and do most of what Coco Crisp does but for cheaper. So that kind of acquisition seems redundant to me.

Can Chris Heisey SERIOUSLY sustain a .349 OBP* and steal 30+ bags? I think Crisp would be a HUGE upgrade for this team.


*June - Sept 2012 for Crisp

RedsManRick
10-20-2012, 08:46 PM
I'm interested, but it depends on the cost.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 08:55 PM
Can Chris Heisey SERIOUSLY sustain a .349 OBP* and steal 30+ bags? I think Crisp would be a HUGE upgrade for this team.


*June - Sept 2012 for Crisp

I didn't realize doing it for half a year is "sustaining" it. Regardless, here is what the two players have sustained so far in their careers:

Career wOBA:

Crisp (.322)
Heisey (.327)

Obviously Heisey's sample is much smaller, but not radically different results. Crisp had a .324 wOBA this year, Heisey a .313. Plucking out half a year for Crisp is a radically misleading narrative.

757690
10-20-2012, 08:55 PM
Many A's fans thought he was the team MVP last season. He's a very strong defensive CF, who can get on base much better than any Reds current outfielder.

The way the A's like to constantly get younger and cheaper, they'd probably take a package centered around Heisey.

757690
10-20-2012, 08:57 PM
I didn't realize doing it for half a year is "sustaining" it.

Career wOBA:

Crisp (.322)
Heisey (.327)

Even if they're even offensively, Crisp blows Heisey away on defense.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 08:57 PM
Many A's fans thought he was the team MVP last season. He's a very strong defensive CF, who can get on base much better than any Reds current outfielder.

The way the A's like to constantly get younger and cheaper, they'd probably take a package centered around Heisey.

OBP this year:

Crisp .325, Heisey .315. Not much of a difference, really.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 08:59 PM
Even if they're even offensively, Crisp blows Heisey away on defense.

WAR calculations beg to differ, which I realize you'll dismiss out of hand. Nonetheless, Crisp has been barely an average outfielder over the past four seasons.

757690
10-20-2012, 09:17 PM
WAR calculations beg to differ, which I realize you'll dismiss out of hand. Nonetheless, Crisp has been barely an average outfielder over the past four seasons.

Heisey's never been a starter, and most of his starts have been in LF. His numbers aren't going to be an accurate reflection of what he would do as an everyday CF.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 09:25 PM
Heisey's never been a starter, and most of his starts have been in LF. His numbers aren't going to be an accurate reflection of what he would do as an everyday CF.

It's kind of a moot point because whether or not Heisey is as good a CF as Crisp or only close to as good, I don't think the minimal upgrade is worth paying $7 million a year and investing resources into acquiring him to begin with.

I'd rather save the $7 million and prospects and run out a guy that is going to produce most of the same production offensively and defensively.

I'm all for upgrading the position, but I don't see Crisp as much of one nor is it worth the cost of upgrading marginally.

757690
10-20-2012, 09:32 PM
It's kind of a moot point because whether or not Heisey is as good a CF as Crisp or only close to as good, I don't think the minimal upgrade is worth paying $7 million a year and investing resources into acquiring him to begin with.

I'd rather save the $7 million and prospects and run out a guy that is going to produce most of the same production offensively and defensively.

I'm all for upgrading the position, but I don't see Crisp as much of one nor is it worth the cost of upgrading marginally.

I think as a starter in CF, Chris Heisey could be Willie Taveras bad, at least interns of overall production.

He's really not a starter. He's been matched up smartly by Dusty to maximize his value. Start him everyday and he'll likely underproduced Stubbs offensively, and be below average defensively.

I like him as a fourth outfielder, but never want to see him be the Reds starting center fielder.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 09:45 PM
I think as a starter in CF, Chris Heisey could be Willie Taveras bad, at least interns of overall production.

He's really not a starter. He's been matched up smartly by Dusty to maximize his value. Start him everyday and he'll likely underproduced Stubbs offensively, and be below average defensively.

I like him as a fourth outfielder, but never want to see him be the Reds starting center fielder.

The guy has over 900 plate appearances now. I think it's time to put to bed the notion that we'd see something less out of Heisey than we've already seen if that were the case.

For the record, of his 900+ plate appearances, 650 of them have been against right-handed pitching. So he hasn't even really been utilized in a traditional platoon fashion as people suggest.

There's no evidence to suggest that Heisey would be any different as a starter than he's been in his nearly 1,000 plate appearances thus far. At that point, talent level is talent level. There are no secrets. Teams already know who he is through scouting reports. We've already seen what we should expect of him. Starting Heisey might not be ideal, but it's a lot more ideal to start him for league minimum than paying someone $7 million to put up the same production. And thus far, that's all Crisp has done.

757690
10-20-2012, 10:01 PM
The guy has over 900 plate appearances now. I think it's time to put to bed the notion that we'd see something less out of Heisey than we've already seen if that were the case.

For the record, of his 900+ plate appearances, 650 of them have been against right-handed pitching. So he hasn't even really been utilized in a traditional platoon fashion as people suggest.

There's no evidence to suggest that Heisey would be any different as a starter than he's been in his nearly 1,000 plate appearances thus far. At that point, talent level is talent level. There are no secrets. Teams already know who he is through scouting reports. We've already seen what we should expect of him. Starting Heisey might not be ideal, but it's a lot more ideal to start him for league minimum than paying someone $7 million to put up the same production. And thus far, that's all Crisp has done.

The reason why you need around 1000 AB's to know what a player's true skill level is because usually around then, he will have faced every type of pitcher, and every type of situation multiple times.

Heisey has mostly played against fastball pitchers, because he struggles against most off-speed stuff, especially from RH pitching. Play him everyday, against everyone, and his numbers will likely plummet.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 10:15 PM
The reason why you need around 1000 AB's to know what a player's true skill level is because usually around then, he will have faced every type of pitcher, and every type of situation multiple times.

Heisey has mostly played against fastball pitchers, because he struggles against most off-speed stuff, especially from RH pitching. Play him everyday, against everyone, and his numbers will likely plummet.

Funny thing is, his career splits suggest exactly the opposite.

B-Ref's career splits show that only 221 of his career plate appearances have come against pitchers considered "power" pitchers (with a .657 OPS). Against finesse pitchers, he's had an .856 OPS among 334 PAs.

That's roughly one quarter of his career plate appearances against power pitchers. Know what's interesting? The NL total splits this year profiles just shy of one quarter of all plate appearances being against "power" pitchers.

So that means not only is the perception of Heisey's struggles not backed up by stats, but his proportion of who he's been facing is right in line with the rest of the league -- meaning he's not benefiting from being utilized any special way according to his strengths.

mth123
10-20-2012, 10:22 PM
I'd be interested in Crisp if the price is right and if the A's would take some dead money back. The main reason he'd be an upgrade is his ability against RHP. The Reds really don't have many good alternatives at very many positions that can get on base against RHP. In 2012, in in 336 PAs against RHP, Crisp went .259/.337/.436/.774. in 2011, in 386 PA, it was .293/.335/.414/.749. The Reds don't have any CF candidates that can do that. I'd imagine those numbers would improve in GABP as opposed to Oakland. Throw in his defense and he'd be a nice upgrade.

He's not my top choice, but he's better than anything on the roster.

757690
10-20-2012, 10:32 PM
Funny thing is, his career splits suggest exactly the opposite.

B-Ref's career splits show that only 221 of his career plate appearances have come against pitchers considered "power" pitchers (with a .657 OPS). Against finesse pitchers, he's had an .856 OPS among 334 PAs.

That's roughly one quarter of his career plate appearances against power pitchers. Know what's interesting? The NL total splits this year profiles just shy of one quarter of all plate appearances being against "power" pitchers.

So that means not only is the perception of Heisey's struggles not backed up by stats, but his proportion of who he's been facing is right in line with the rest of the league -- meaning he's not benefiting from being utilized any special way according to his strengths.

Maybe I had it backwards, or maybe it has nothing to do with power pitchers vs. finesse pitchers, but the Reds had a book on Heisey and said at the beginning of the season that they would play him mostly against pitchers he does well against, and they did.

The fact remains that Heisey has never been a starter in the majors, so you really can't assume his stats would translate the same if he were to start. And that's not even getting into his defense.

Brutus
10-20-2012, 11:26 PM
Maybe I had it backwards, or maybe it has nothing to do with power pitchers vs. finesse pitchers, but the Reds had a book on Heisey and said at the beginning of the season that they would play him mostly against pitchers he does well against, and they did.

The fact remains that Heisey has never been a starter in the majors, so you really can't assume his stats would translate the same if he were to start. And that's not even getting into his defense.

No they really didn't. It was about 25% against power pitchers, about 30% against finesse pitchers and 45% against everyone in between. Again, that is actually almost exactly the same splits as the entire league, meaning he wasn't treated much differently than most other hitters. I find it amusing that you can't even be sure what type of pitcher he struggles against, yet you're making the claim "said at the beginning of the season that they would play him mostly against pitchers he does well against, and they did." How can you know they played him against the pitchers he did the best against when you don't even recall what type of pitcher it is he does best against? Yes, he does best, statistically, against finesse pitchers. But so does the rest of the league and the rest of the league has more finesses pitchers than starters. So if he started everyday, he'd be facing more finesse pitchers anyhow.

As far as never being a starter, I think you have it backwards. You can't assume his production than it's already been after three years of teams having advanced scouting reports on him; getting nearly 1,000 plate appearances and being used in a multitude of roles. There is absolutely no evidence at this point that we'd see a side of Chris Heisey we haven't already seen or a lesser talent level than has already been exposed. The only way that narrative works is if it were shown that Heisey were facing a certain type of pitcher an inordinate amount. But again as I have already shown, his proportion of facing power vs. finesse pitchers is almost identical to the rest of the league. So he's absolutely not being used in a way that differs from his talents or the rest of the league as a whole.

This just seems like a situation where the stats don't jive with what people want to believe about a guy, so they have to rely on an untested, unsubstantiated and unproven narrative to make a case that isn't otherwise supported by the evidence.

If you don't like Chris Heisey on the basis of what he is... fine. That's understandable. But after nearly a grand in trips to the plate, it's time to stop throwing out the fictional narrative that teams will figure him out with more playing time. These teams have dozens of pages of reports on him already. They know everything there is to know on him. He's a known commodity by now. His weaknesses have been exposed and he is who he is.

It's not really a matter of what he'll do, largely, it's simply a matter of whether that's good enough. Relative to some other players that might be on the market, it's probably not. Relative to Drew Stubbs in 2012... it should have been. Relative to Coco Crisp? It's pretty much one in the same statistically but unlike Crisp, Heisey doesn't cost $7 million.

Kc61
10-20-2012, 11:29 PM
I would like to see Stubbs and Heisey both elsewhere next season. Both talented guys, but their on base and contact skills are quite poor.

Heisey strikes out 23.8% of the time. He walks 5.8% of the time. Lifetime stats. Lifetime .315 OBP. 909 PAs.

On another team, Heisey's power and hustle might fit well. The Reds need more contact, more OBP, and can live without whatever power is supplied by Heisey and Stubbs.

Crisp is a contact hitter with a .329 OBP. He's a better fit than the current CFers, but not ideal and he makes a lot of money. Frankly, I doubt the Reds will sign him, kind of expensive. I think the Reds will go for someone cheaper like Eric Young as a starter and aggressively promote Billy Hamilton.

When the Reds drafted the kid Winker this year, one of their scouting guys said that the organization can use more contact hitters. Boy, was he right.

757690
10-20-2012, 11:49 PM
No they really didn't. It was about 25% against power pitchers, about 30% against finesse pitchers and 45% against everyone in between. Again, that is actually almost exactly the same splits as the entire league, meaning he wasn't treated much differently than most other hitters. I find it amusing that you can't even be sure what type of pitcher he struggles against, yet you're making the claim "said at the beginning of the season that they would play him mostly against pitchers he does well against, and they did." How can you know they played him against the pitchers he did the best against when you don't even recall what type of pitcher it is he does best against? Yes, he does best, statistically, against finesse pitchers. But so does the rest of the league and the rest of the league has more finesses pitchers than starters. So if he started everyday, he'd be facing more finesse pitchers anyhow.

As far as never being a starter, I think you have it backwards. You can't assume his production than it's already been after three years of teams having advanced scouting reports on him; getting nearly 1,000 plate appearances and being used in a multitude of roles. There is absolutely no evidence at this point that we'd see a side of Chris Heisey we haven't already seen or a lesser talent level than has already been exposed. The only way that narrative works is if it were shown that Heisey were facing a certain type of pitcher an inordinate amount. But again as I have already shown, his proportion of facing power vs. finesse pitchers is almost identical to the rest of the league. So he's absolutely not being used in a way that differs from his talents or the rest of the league as a whole.

This just seems like a situation where the stats don't jive with what people want to believe about a guy, so they have to rely on an untested, unsubstantiated and unproven narrative to make a case that isn't otherwise supported by the evidence.

If you don't like Chris Heisey on the basis of what he is... fine. That's understandable. But after nearly a grand in trips to the plate, it's time to stop throwing out the fictional narrative that teams will figure him out with more playing time. These teams have dozens of pages of reports on him already. They know everything there is to know on him. He's a known commodity by now. His weaknesses have been exposed and he is who he is.

It's not really a matter of what he'll do, largely, it's simply a matter of whether that's good enough. Relative to some other players that might be on the market, it's probably not. Relative to Drew Stubbs in 2012... it should have been. Relative to Coco Crisp? It's pretty much one in the same statistically but unlike Crisp, Heisey doesn't cost $7 million.

It has little to do with wither or not teams have figured him out. It has much more to do with against whom Heisey has played and what he has figured out.

The Reds said they were going to play him against pitchers he does well against. I take them for their word. The pitchers he does well against might not be based at all on whether they are power, or finesse pitchers, it might be pitchers who don't throw a slider, who have a great cut fastball, or who are from states that entered the union before the Civil War.

I simply don't trust the stats of any player who has t played a full season as a started, no matter how many AB's they have, to tell me what they can do as a starter.

corkedbat
10-21-2012, 12:03 AM
It has little to do with wither or not teams have figured him out. It has much more to do with against whom Heisey has played and what he has figured out.

The Reds said they were going to play him against pitchers he does well against. I take them for their word. The pitchers he does well against might not be based at all on whether they are power, or finesse pitchers, it might be pitchers who don't throw a slider, who have a great cut fastball, or who are from states that entered the union before the Civil War.

I simply don't trust the stats of any player who has t played a full season as a started, no matter how many AB's they have, to tell me what they can do as a starter.

Crisp wouldn't be my first choice (second or third either), but I'd take him if I could get him cheap and pair him with someone else. Not a Heisey fan. OK as a fourth OF I guess, but never been as high on him as some here seem to have been. I was really disappointed that they didn't sell high on him last offseason. I believe the missed a real opportunity. I believe he's easily replaceable.

marcshoe
10-21-2012, 12:39 AM
Beane says Crisp is sticking around. He would be a good fit, though. Go after Parra.


Was that a haiku?

Phhhl
10-21-2012, 02:39 AM
Beane says Crisp is sticking around. He would be a good fit, though. Go after Parra.


Was that a haiku?

Haiku ingenious or not, Parra would be an excellent stopgap centerfielder for this ballclub while we wait for Hamilton to develop. How about Leake for Parra and plug Cingrani/Chapman or Corcino into the number five starter spot? Arizona's fascination with Micah Owings suggests they fall for pitchers that hit. Re-sign Ludwick and Broxton and go to war?

Krusty
10-21-2012, 08:34 AM
I don't believe Parra was a leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks. For 7 million for one season, the Reds could afford Crisp. They would options if Hamilton isn't ready to go in 2014 by picking up Crisp's 2014 option.

Make this a three-way deal where you send Stubbs elsewhere. Essentially you replace Stubbs with Crisp. You get your leadoff hitter while keeping your major league roster pretty much intact.

Benihana
10-21-2012, 08:56 AM
Wouldn't DeJesus be a better alternative to Crisp?

Can't see any reason why the Cubs would need a $5M CF next year on a 1 year deal.

If Garza is healthy, I wonder if Leake (and Stubbs?) for Garza and DeJesus would work? Both are in the last year of their deals, and the Cubs need to build assets for 2014 and beyond.

Reds could then make Garza a qualifying offer after next year to regain a draft pick, an replace him in the rotation with Corcino or Cingrani for 2014.

PuffyPig
10-21-2012, 09:09 AM
Wouldn't DeJesus be a better alternative to Crisp?

Can't see any reason why the Cubs would need a $5M CF next year on a 1 year deal.



Deesus hsn't been a regular CF since 2007.

He'll be 33 when the seaon starts, and is a poor bet to play CF full time at any kind of acceptable level.

mth123
10-21-2012, 09:40 AM
Wouldn't DeJesus be a better alternative to Crisp?

Can't see any reason why the Cubs would need a $5M CF next year on a 1 year deal.

If Garza is healthy, I wonder if Leake (and Stubbs?) for Garza and DeJesus would work? Both are in the last year of their deals, and the Cubs need to build assets for 2014 and beyond.

Reds could then make Garza a qualifying offer after next year to regain a draft pick, an replace him in the rotation with Corcino or Cingrani for 2014.

The Cubs are looking for core players. Garza is the Cubs last real chance to cash in for some high value talent. I can't see them agreeing to a deal for guys who are in a downward spiral where value is concerned. I could see them being interested in Leake, but he wouldn't be a main component of a deal. He'd be more like how Volquez was involved in the deal for Latos. He'd be part of it to fill the spot, but the main return would be the long term players who come with him. I'd be prepared to part with at least one of Cingrani or Corcino and some other prospects as well, maybe H-Rod or Vidal would interest them. I'd pass on Garza and just try to pick up Dejesus on the cheap.

I agree that I like Dejesus better than Crisp. Assuming major deals for guys like Ellsbury and Fowler are out of the question, my CF hit list, in order, would be Parra, Pagan, Dejesus, Crisp and Span. It shouldn't require major latent to get any of those (Pagan as a possible free agent, but that looks less likely given his post season).

LegallyMinded
10-21-2012, 11:37 AM
Forget about Coco Crisp-- the Chris Young deal makes Jonny Gomes available (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/athletics-notes-gomes-crisp-young.html)!

All kidding aside, Gomes actually had a good year in Oakland: 2.1 WAR in only a half season of at bats. Now, I don't want to see the Reds go after him, by any stretch of the imagination, but he can be a pretty useful player, at least when a team takes advantage of his platoon splits, as Oakland did.

Tadasimha
10-21-2012, 10:19 PM
Why not make a run at Angel Pagan - he's a free agent, will only be 31 at the start of next season, better OBP than Crisp and is a switch hiitter who leads off. He'll be more expensive than Crisp but give him a 3 year deal and after 2013 bring up Hamilton as the LFer and than move Billy to CF after Pagan is gone.

Spitball
10-21-2012, 10:57 PM
Why not make a run at Angel Pagan ...

Because his name is an oxymoron. I don't know if the Reds really need oxymorons. :)

Edd Roush
10-22-2012, 09:47 AM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-most-underrated-player-in-baseball-2/

Here is a cool article about Pagan. I would really be for the Reds making a run for him in the off-season.

Edd Roush
10-22-2012, 09:47 AM
By the way, I know Billy Hamilton is knocking at the door, but if he does prove that he can play centerfield at a high level and hit at the AAA level consistently, Pagan would still be a valuable trade piece when Billy is ready.

Brutus
10-22-2012, 09:54 AM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-most-underrated-player-in-baseball-2/

Here is a cool article about Pagan. I would really be for the Reds making a run for him in the off-season.

Pagan would be a great fit but many do I dislike the guy so much.

REDREAD
10-22-2012, 09:58 AM
Crisp would be an upgrade, no doubt.

I just have a hard time trading talent for him, and paying 7 million/year.
The budget is probably getting kind of tight.
I'd rather spend the money on a LF or 3b solution (Frasier filling the other slot).
Or perhaps even spend the money on pitching.

It does make sense to upgrade CF, but not at any cost.. Heisey/Stubbs is not the production we want, but they are still inexpensive, which provides value.

Johnny Footstool
10-22-2012, 10:22 AM
Why not make a run at Angel Pagan - he's a free agent, will only be 31 at the start of next season, better OBP than Crisp and is a switch hiitter who leads off. He'll be more expensive than Crisp but give him a 3 year deal and after 2013 bring up Hamilton as the LFer and than move Billy to CF after Pagan is gone.

Good suggestion!

757690
10-22-2012, 10:24 AM
Crisp would be an upgrade, no doubt.

I just have a hard time trading talent for him, and paying 7 million/year.
The budget is probably getting kind of tight.
I'd rather spend the money on a LF or 3b solution (Frasier filling the other slot).
Or perhaps even spend the money on pitching.

It does make sense to upgrade CF, but not at any cost.. Heisey/Stubbs is not the production we want, but they are still inexpensive, which provides value.

My guess is the Reds get a cheap platoon partner for Stubbs, and focus their time and money on getting a replacement middle of the order bat for Ludwick in LF.

Brutus
10-22-2012, 11:35 AM
Crisp would be an upgrade, no doubt.

I just have a hard time trading talent for him, and paying 7 million/year.
The budget is probably getting kind of tight.
I'd rather spend the money on a LF or 3b solution (Frasier filling the other slot).
Or perhaps even spend the money on pitching.

It does make sense to upgrade CF, but not at any cost.. Heisey/Stubbs is not the production we want, but they are still inexpensive, which provides value.


2012

Chris Heisey (.315/.401/.715; .313 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.325/.418/.742; .324 wOBA)

Career

Chris Heisey (.315/.438/.753; .327 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.329/.407/.736; .322 wOBA)

Seems like some doubt to me. Crisp gets the benefit of having played in a pitcher's park, but Heisey is also five years younger. So I don't think it's so obvious that it's an upgrade, if it's even one at all. And again, factor-in the money and it seems like a pointless move.

757690
10-22-2012, 12:16 PM
2012

Chris Heisey (.315/.401/.715; .313 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.325/.418/.742; .324 wOBA)

Career

Chris Heisey (.315/.438/.753; .327 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.329/.407/.736; .322 wOBA)

Seems like some doubt to me. Crisp gets the benefit of having played in a pitcher's park, but Heisey is also five years younger. So I don't think it's so obvious that it's an upgrade, if it's even one at all. And again, factor-in the money and it seems like a pointless move.

Heisey isn't a CF. He can fill in there, but I don't think any team would want him as their starting CF.

Factor in defense, and there is no doubt.

AtomicDumpling
10-22-2012, 12:40 PM
2012

Chris Heisey (.315/.401/.715; .313 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.325/.418/.742; .324 wOBA)

Career

Chris Heisey (.315/.438/.753; .327 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.329/.407/.736; .322 wOBA)

Seems like some doubt to me. Crisp gets the benefit of having played in a pitcher's park, but Heisey is also five years younger. So I don't think it's so obvious that it's an upgrade, if it's even one at all. And again, factor-in the money and it seems like a pointless move.

Crisp actually had a .806 OPS at home in the pitchers' park, and a .667 OPS on the road. It wasn't a fluke either as his home OPS has been much higher than his road OPS all three of his years in Oakland. I think his performance would be negatively affected by coming to the small outfield in Cincinnati.

Some players actually hit better in pitchers' parks. Usually the reason a park is considered a pitchers' park is because it has a vast outfield that suppresses home runs. A vast outfield where the outfielders have to play very deep can actually be a huge advantage for slap hitters like Coco Crisp because he is not going to hit home runs anyway.

Like Brutus, I have mixed feelings about Coco Crisp. He could be a slight upgrade from Heisey and Stubbs, but given what it would cost the Reds in prospects and money to acquire him he might not be worth it. I think the Reds can do better elsewhere.

I have been a big proponent of Gerardo Parra in the past. It seems less likely than ever the DBacks will trade him now that they have already dealt away Chris Young.

I would be thrilled if the Reds snagged Justin Upton somehow, although he would be very expensive. Dexter Fowler would be a solid upgrade. DeJesus or Span seem more likely, but are less enticing. If the Reds settle for Eric Young or Juan Pierre I will be upset. BJ Upton is another potential addition, but I don't like his game and his cost would greatly outweigh his value in my opinion.

If Billy Hamilton starts off the year in AAA with his OBP over .400 for a couple months while Stubbs/Heisey continue to underwhelm, I would bring up Hamilton and live with his rookie ups and downs. I don't even care too much about the stolen bases, it is Hamilton's OBP I am drooling over.

Kc61
10-22-2012, 12:47 PM
Using Heisey with his .315 OBP as the starter in CF is a good way to avoid offensive improvement on the Reds.

The team finished 12th in NL OBP with .315. If you are replacing a starting player, you probably ought to look at someone who can boost the .315 OBP. Not Heisey.

My problem with Crisp as the full time CFer is that he provides only a small OBP boost. If used as a platoon guy against RHP, however, he adds more. His lifetime OBP v. RHP is .333, last year .337.

I doubt the Reds would acquire Crisp for $7 million to platoon. So he probably isn't the one for the team this off-season.

mdccclxix
10-22-2012, 01:23 PM
Using Heisey with his .315 OBP as the starter in CF is a good way to avoid offensive improvement on the Reds.

The team finished 12th in NL OBP with .315. If you are replacing a starting player, you probably ought to look at someone who can boost the .315 OBP. Not Heisey.

My problem with Crisp as the full time CFer is that he provides only a small OBP boost. If used as a platoon guy against RHP, however, he adds more. His lifetime OBP v. RHP is .333, last year .337.

I doubt the Reds would acquire Crisp for $7 million to platoon. So he probably isn't the one for the team this off-season.


Still, Stubbs was the worst hitter in baseball against RHP, so I think Heisey would be a decent upgrade if that's what they do until Hamilton is ready. Not my favorite idea, but at least Stubbs isn't sinking the boat. I'd like a strict platoon with Stubbs only vs LHP, but I just don't see it occurring that way, so I'd just as soon see him shipped out. If they got a CF they liked and was the clear starter, probably like a Coco Crisp, then perhaps Stubbs would see that beneficial platoon, but who knows.

bucksfan2
10-22-2012, 01:39 PM
Going into the season with Heisey or Stubbs in CF is a losing proposition. The Reds need to make a move in order to improve CF and I don't think Heisey is the answer. I think/hope that Drew Stubbs has taken his last swings with a Red and they move on. If they don't bring Ludwick back I would like to see a Pagan or Victorino brought in to play CF on a 1-3 year deal. The Reds could move either of those players to LF when/if Hamilton comes up.

The Reds are built to contend for a WS over the next number of years. Standing put like they did in 2011 would be an utter failure. They need to make a move, need to improve the leadoff spot. They need to get production out of CF. The Reds attendance should see a boost coming off of a playoff run. The FO needs to step up and keep building on 2012.

mdccclxix
10-22-2012, 01:55 PM
Going into the season with Heisey or Stubbs in CF is a losing proposition. The Reds need to make a move in order to improve CF and I don't think Heisey is the answer. I think/hope that Drew Stubbs has taken his last swings with a Red and they move on. If they don't bring Ludwick back I would like to see a Pagan or Victorino brought in to play CF on a 1-3 year deal. The Reds could move either of those players to LF when/if Hamilton comes up.

The Reds are built to contend for a WS over the next number of years. Standing put like they did in 2011 would be an utter failure. They need to make a move, need to improve the leadoff spot. They need to get production out of CF. The Reds attendance should see a boost coming off of a playoff run. The FO needs to step up and keep building on 2012.

Totally agree. I think each year they need to consider how much more they could expect out of the team. After a 97 win season, it would be hard to ask the same group to do it again. A few smart upgrades are in order.

REDREAD
10-22-2012, 03:36 PM
2012
Seems like some doubt to me. Crisp gets the benefit of having played in a pitcher's park, but Heisey is also five years younger. So I don't think it's so obvious that it's an upgrade, if it's even one at all. And again, factor-in the money and it seems like a pointless move.

I hear you.. when I heard about the contract Crisp got from Oakland, I'm glad we didn't sign him at that price.
I'm certainly not excited about giving up a prospect to take on that contract now.
Really, unless it's a clear impact upgrade, I don't want to blow a bunch of money on CF, especially with Billy Ham on the horizon.
Getting a LF or 3b is a higher priority for me.. If need be, we can do Stubbs/Heisey until Billy Ham is ready (even if he's not ready until 2014)

Brutus
10-22-2012, 07:15 PM
Using Heisey with his .315 OBP as the starter in CF is a good way to avoid offensive improvement on the Reds.

The team finished 12th in NL OBP with .315. If you are replacing a starting player, you probably ought to look at someone who can boost the .315 OBP. Not Heisey.

My problem with Crisp as the full time CFer is that he provides only a small OBP boost. If used as a platoon guy against RHP, however, he adds more. His lifetime OBP v. RHP is .333, last year .337.

I doubt the Reds would acquire Crisp for $7 million to platoon. So he probably isn't the one for the team this off-season.

I'm not arguing to start Heisey. I'm saying Coco Crisp is not an upgrade over Heisey.

Crisp, based on 2012, would only have gotten on base six more times than Heisey over 600 plate appearances. That's not really an upgrade.

So I'm not advocating that the Reds start Heisey every day, I'm saying that Heisey might as well be thrown out there over the cost of obtaining (and paying) Crisp.

M2
10-22-2012, 09:04 PM
I suspect all CF decisions line up behind whether the Reds go after Michael Bourn. He wouldn't be my first choice, but they're going to want speed and defense and he's got both in abundance.

Crisp, Fowler and Parra are all possibilities if the Reds hit the trade market. Fowler would be my favorite from that group, followed by Parra. Yet I suspect the Reds will look to fill the CF hole without moving a starting pitcher. Plus, with the fat new TV contract it makes it a lot more easier to spend on a free agent.

Gizmo
10-22-2012, 09:48 PM
I'd much prefer Fowler, or Bourne to a lesser extent. I am not sure I'd want to chase Crisp, when there are bigger fish in the sea. If we're going to chase someone like Crisp, I agree we've already got similar people in the organization so might as well not waste the money/effort.

Benihana
10-23-2012, 11:23 AM
My offseason OF priority targets:

1. Re-sign Ludwick only if he'll take 2 years at <$7MM per. Otherwise let him walk.
2. Justin Upton (if Ludwick walks, play Upton in LF and Stubbs/Heisey until Hamilton is ready in CF)
3. David DeJesus
4. Dexter Fowler
5. Sin Soo-Choo (see #2)

I do not want Michael Bourn. Why lock someone in (expensively) at CF when Hamilton should be ready by 2014 at the latest? I don't see Crisp as a big enough upgrade to justify the $7MM + talent in a trade. I'd prefer DeJesus because he'd presumably come much cheaper than Fowler in a trade (and he's only a one-year stopgap to Hamilton), although Fowler is clearly a much better player. If they'd give up Fowler for Leake and a minor leaguer (not Hamilton or Stephenson), I'd pull the trigger. I don't really know enough about Parra but I guess I could live with that if he came inexpensively. Choo could be an interesting option for LF in his walk year.

mdccclxix
10-23-2012, 11:31 AM
I really advocate two players that never come up here:

Michael Brantley &
Emilio Bonifacio

Both guys could help the team at lead off and CF next year, then move around the OF or INF (Bonifacio) when Hamilton is ready. It also gives Hamilton until 2014-15 if needed.

Kc61
10-23-2012, 11:56 AM
I'm not arguing to start Heisey. I'm saying Coco Crisp is not an upgrade over Heisey.

Crisp, based on 2012, would only have gotten on base six more times than Heisey over 600 plate appearances. That's not really an upgrade.

So I'm not advocating that the Reds start Heisey every day, I'm saying that Heisey might as well be thrown out there over the cost of obtaining (and paying) Crisp.

I'm guessing the Reds will go cheaper than Coco Crisp. I think Eric Young, Jr. is a more likely candidate for CF.

Heisey as a backup? I think he's the wrong kind of hitter, but as long as he's not playing every day it's no big deal.

Just hopefully they will do something to upgrade the OBP output in that position.

Scrap Irony
10-23-2012, 12:15 PM
Like M2, I'd prefer Fowler, but suspect the Reds will overpay (Leake, Corcino, or Cingrani) for Eric Young, Jr.

At least he can also play some 2B. Roster flexibility is an undervalued trait.

REDREAD
10-23-2012, 04:07 PM
I really advocate two players that never come up here:

Michael Brantley &
Emilio Bonifacio
.

Brantley would be a great addition if we didn't have to sell the farm to get him.

Edd Roush
10-23-2012, 04:21 PM
If we are talking about the trade market, I will throw Denard Span back out there. I would love that .342 2012 OBP and .357 career OBP at the top of the lineup with plus baserunning and plus defense. I think the difference between him and Stubbs may have cost us in the playoffs.

M2
10-23-2012, 09:18 PM
If we are talking about the trade market, I will throw Denard Span back out there. I would love that .342 2012 OBP and .357 career OBP at the top of the lineup with plus baserunning and plus defense. I think the difference between him and Stubbs may have cost us in the playoffs.

Agreed. Span should definitely be in the mix. One of the nice things for the Reds is technically there should be a lot of leadoff CF types available either on the open market or via trade.