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Benihana
10-24-2012, 11:45 AM
What would it take to trade for him?

He is a FA after 2013. He is likely to make about $10MM in arbitration this year. He is also coming off of an injury plagued down year. The Red Sox don't seem primed to contend in 2013 although they are an organization that looks to contend every year.

They seem to have a hole at 1B and LF. In addition their SP is aging quickly.

I wonder if something like Tony Cingrani (or Corcino if they prefer), Donald Lutz, and Drew Stubbs would work? My guess is they'd demand Frazier, which I probably wouldn't do.

Ellsbury would be a perfect fit for the 2013 Reds. He bats LH, is a great leadoff hitter who could keep things warm for Billy Hamilton in 2014. Worst case if Hamilton is forcing his way to Cincy, we could move Ellsbury to LF for the second half of the season, or trade him at the deadline if we were out of contention.

Otherwise, give him a qualifying offer next offseason, thank him, and collect the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Coming back to the original question, what would it take to pry him from Boston?

lollipopcurve
10-24-2012, 11:56 AM
trade him at the deadline if we were out of contention.

Otherwise, give him a qualifying offer next offseason, thank him, and collect the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Coming back to the original question, what would it take to pry him from Boston?

Boston's looking at it the same way. It would take a whole lot to get him this offseason.

There will be good, less expensive options available.

Kc61
10-24-2012, 11:56 AM
I'd be surprised if the Reds threw that much money at CF. I think they will move Billy Hamilton up very quickly and will try to go cheaper with the position until that happens.

I'm guessing Hamilton is very heavily in their plans. I wouldn't be shocked if he starts next season at AAA.

I could see them throwing a few million at a stopgap centerfielder for 2013. But $10 million for Ellsbury with an injury risk? Don't see it, but only a guess of course.

I'm expecting an acquisition like Eric Young, Jr.

Benihana
10-24-2012, 11:59 AM
Don't disagree with either of you in terms of what the Reds will do. I think it may be what the Reds should do. They could move Ellsbury to LF once Hamilton is ready. Either way, the CF job is Hamilton's as soon as he's ready, and the decks are cleared come 2014.

I'd much rather spend $10MM for one season of Ellsbury than $20MM for 3 years of Ludwick at this point. Also moving Stubbs would help offset some of that.

lollipop, what do you think it would hypothetically cost the Reds for Boston to give him up?

mdccclxix
10-24-2012, 12:08 PM
It's hard to say, there aren't many injured stars that are moved with a year left on their deal. It's a big potential loss for either team.

Benihana
10-24-2012, 12:13 PM
It's hard to say, there aren't many injured stars that are moved with a year left on their deal. It's a big potential loss for either team.

Agreed. However I do think Cingrani, Lutz and Stubbs does potentially address three need areas for them. I guess a lot of it depends on how much they think they'll contend in 2013, and how likely they think they are to re-sign Ellsbury. If they have doubts about either or both, a trade like that could make a lot of sense for them.

Vottomatic
10-24-2012, 02:50 PM
Every team would like to have Ellsbury. BUT......

1. His tools and production, WHEN HEALTHY, require a big salary. He is a free agent after next season. Not sure I would risk trading a boatload for him and risking that he'll only play 50 or 80 games, and then walk in 2014.

2. Billy Hamilton is on the verge. And he comes cheaper than Ellsbury.

REDREAD
10-24-2012, 03:35 PM
Here's an interesting rumor story about Ellsbury

http://www.bosoxbanter.com/2012/10/ellsbury-for-holland-trade-rumor-is-appealing-for-red-sox/



The Red Sox would like to upgrade their rotation, and while the 26-year-old Holland is not the ace starter they desperately need, he does represent a durable and effective left-hander who is under affordable team control through as long as 2018.

Holland, who was 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 2011 before slipping to 12-7 with a 4.67 ERA this year, signed a five-year, $28.5 million deal in 2012 that will pay him $3.25 million in 2013 and increase his annual salary to $5.4 million in 2014, $7.4 million in 2015 and $10 million in 2016. He has team options of $11 million and $11.5 million in 2017 and 2018 respectively.



If that's all it takes to get Ellsbury, you'd think the Reds could be in on the action. I'm not sure how healthy Ellsbury projects to be next year though.
Someone made an excellent point that acquiring Ellsbury would relieve some pressure to resign Ludwick. With Ellsbury healthy, the Reds could possibly go cheap/reclamation at 3b or LF (Frasier plays the other position).

Walt supposedly talked to the Red Sox about Ellsbury at the trade deadline, so I imagine he'll talk more to them in the offseason.

IMO, the Red Sox will get more for trading him now than at the 2013 deadline.

*BaseClogger*
10-24-2012, 03:47 PM
IMO, the Red Sox will get more for trading him now than at the 2013 deadline.

A heck of a lot more if he's hurt again by the deadline. Then again, if he is healthy and producing, they could likely get more. It's a gamble...

WildcatFan
10-24-2012, 03:56 PM
2. Billy Hamilton is on the verge. And he comes cheaper than Ellsbury.

That's why the remaining year would be perfect. We'll see Billy in September.

crazybob60
10-24-2012, 04:31 PM
I don't understand the fascination of even entertaining the idea of trading away Corcino and/or Cingrani at this point. We need SP depth and they are the depth and youth we need at that spot. Ellsbury would be nice, but it stops at nice. Especially if parting with one of those two is the asking price.

Benihana
10-24-2012, 04:59 PM
I don't understand the fascination of even entertaining the idea of trading away Corcino and/or Cingrani at this point. We need SP depth and they are the depth and youth we need at that spot. Ellsbury would be nice, but it stops at nice. Especially if parting with one of those two is the asking price.

TINSTAAPP

The Reds have 2-3 years to really contend for a World Series before some of their pitching gets really expensive and leaves town (and Brandon Phillips gets old). Cingrani and Corcino are luxuries on a team with 5 and possibly 6 proven major league starting pitchers (if you include Chapman) signed for multiple years. Robert Stephenson is the best pitching prospect in the organization, and his arrival timeline lines up perfectly with the above stated window. While I would be very hesitant to trade both Cingrani and Corcino, I would definitely trade one of them if it meant filling a major hole right now, which our OF certainly qualifies as such.

If I were the GM and the Sox accepted my proposed deal (Cingrani, Lutz and Stubbs) for Ellsbury, I would try to sign Kevin Youkilis to a 1 year, $5MM deal.

Go to war with:

CF Ellsbury
3B Youkilis
1B Votto
LF Frazier
RF Bruce
2B Phillips (could swap spots with Youk)
SS Cozart
C Hanigan/Mez

If/when Youkilis gets hurt and/or Hamilton is ready, you go with:

CF Hamilton
LF Ellsbury
1B Votto
3B Frazier
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Cozart
C Hanigan/Mez

If Ellsbury can't stay healthy, you have Heisey as a backup plan, and you can always trade for a rental LF bopper at the deadline if need be. (I'm thinking Carlos Beltran in 2011 or Hunter Pence in 2012)

It is the exact kind of calculated risk I'd be willing to take. Much more preferable than taking a calculated risk on 3 years and $20MM+ of Ryan Ludwick maintaining his 2012 productivity. Of course my other preferred choice would be trading for Justin Upton.

As an added bonus for whatever it's worth and whatever value you assign to this (including 0), Ellsbury and Youkilis are both seasoned playoff vets that have a history of performing in clutch moments- something this team unfortunately lacked earlier this month.

lollipopcurve
10-24-2012, 06:28 PM
lollipop, what do you think it would hypothetically cost the Reds for Boston to give him up?

pitching, for sure, although they may have interest in Didi (they are short at SS and may want another prospect from Curacao to pair with Bogaerts)

Leake plus Didi, something like that -- they may throw something back the Reds way in a deal like that

to me, you don't do a deal like that for a rental, especially a guy with that injury history

the CF market is shaping up as a buyer's market, I think

Benihana
10-24-2012, 07:01 PM
pitching, for sure, although they may have interest in Didi (they are short at SS and may want another prospect from Curacao to pair with Bogaerts)

Leake plus Didi, something like that -- they may throw something back the Reds way in a deal like that

to me, you don't do a deal like that for a rental, especially a guy with that injury history

the CF market is shaping up as a buyer's market, I think

I would first offer that exact deal to Arizona for Upton.
Then I would offer a derivation of it to Colorado for Fowler (sub another propsect in for DiDi because they don't need SS)
If neither of those avenues worked, I would likely pull the trigger on that deal for Ellsbury.

After the season Ellsbury turns into a first round pick that can easily replicate DiDi (although on a friendlier timeline that is more complementary to Cozart) and you can replace Leake in the rotation with a combo of Chapman and Cingrani. The offense is much improved and I don't know how much the pitching really suffers- you replace Leake with a power lefty and you don't have to worry about innings stress because you have both of them to complement each other. If they both look good, they both stay in the permanent rotation for 2014, replacing Arroyo. If not, you move the less effective one back to the bullpen and have Corcino to replace Arroyo in 2014.

What's wrong with that?

mdccclxix
10-25-2012, 10:28 AM
Looking at Boston's roster, it's u-g-l-y. I'd probably take a flyer on Ellsbury if I were them. They'd need his production and he won't get a big raise in arb this year. I wonder how long Boston could be down at this point? They have a lot of money for FA's, but the best one's (Hamilton and Greike) are headcases. I don't know if they can reload fast enough. It might be nice to see them go the way of Baltimore or Toronto. It's not always easy to get back on top.

M2
10-25-2012, 12:37 PM
My guess is the Red Sox will spend a big chunk of their newfound PayFlex on Ellsbury and that they suffer severe buyer's remorse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Ellsbury has never been able to sustain success in his career. I wouldn't want to be the team that paid him for a lot of years or that moved a lot of talent to get him.

If he's on the market, I'd let teams fight over him and Josh Hamilton and go after other options.

mdccclxix
10-25-2012, 12:42 PM
My guess is the Red Sox will spend a big chunk of their newfound PayFlex on Ellsbury and that they suffer severe buyer's remorse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Ellsbury has never been able to sustain success in his career. I wouldn't want to be the team that paid him for a lot of years or that moved a lot of talent to get him.

If he's on the market, I'd let teams fight over him and Josh Hamilton and go after other options.

Do you think they can contend next year?

Benihana
10-25-2012, 12:54 PM
My guess is the Red Sox will spend a big chunk of their newfound PayFlex on Ellsbury and that they suffer severe buyer's remorse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Ellsbury has never been able to sustain success in his career. I wouldn't want to be the team that paid him for a lot of years or that moved a lot of talent to get him.

If he's on the market, I'd let teams fight over him and Josh Hamilton and go after other options.

Agree on Ellsbury as a FA. However I'd pay the price mentioned for him as a one year rental.

M2
10-25-2012, 12:57 PM
Do you think they can contend next year?

The Red Sox?

I'm not sure. It would take huge rebounds from Lester and Buchholz. Add in a step forward for Doubront and a new SP from somewhere else. Then remake the bullpen (possibly with Daniel Bard making a return and Andrew Bailey bouncing back). Then sort out the lineup with Ellsbury coming back strong, a new 1B, a new SS and at least one new OF corner. If all of that happens that team could contend.

The upside for Boston is it has cash. It can buy a lot of talent on the open market, though we saw with the Marlins this year that spending does not equate to winning.

If the core is rotten then it doesn't matter what they add. And if they don't add the right pieces then it doesn't matter if the core rebounds. Basically, a lot can go wrong with the Sox.

mdccclxix
10-25-2012, 01:17 PM
Yeah, they seem to be still in toppling mode. I'm not sure if I'd rather be the Cubs or Red Sox right now. At least the Cubs are a year ahead in the rebuilding process.

Benihana
10-25-2012, 01:27 PM
Yeah, they seem to be still in toppling mode. I'm not sure if I'd rather be the Cubs or Red Sox right now. At least the Cubs are a year ahead in the rebuilding process.

I'd rather be the Cubs.

Theo > Cherington and I'm not a big Theo fan.
A year ahead in the rebuilding process.
Some key pieces locked up for the long term. (Castro, Rizzo, Smardzjia)
Less spoiled fan base.
Nowhere to go but up.

By comparison, the Sox basically have had nowhere to go but down.

marcshoe
10-25-2012, 01:29 PM
I hate to say it, but the Cubs have more of an idea what they're doing now. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a legitimate shot at a World Series in the next decade.

As for Ellsbury, I don't know what direction the Reds will go, but I'm betting they add some offense somewhere. In truth, they need to add a consistent hitter to the lineup as much as they need a leadoff guy. This team's entered new territory now. Look for them to start (or continue) making moves like a contender.

Spitball
10-25-2012, 10:42 PM
The Ellsbury injuries, Scott Boros, the Sox having a center fielder (Jackie Bradley) as a top prospect, the Carl Crawford experience, and the need for pitching create a dilemma for Ben Cherington and the Reds Sox.

The Sox don't need one year of Ellsbury. They are unlikely to rebuild and recover enough to contend in the AL East next season. They don't need to gamble a big long term contract on a player who has a history of injuries. Crawford, Lackey, and Matsuzaka should show them that.

They have Jackie Bradley coming and need to get something for Ellsbury...but they probably won't due to injuries and Boras.

Unless Cherington totally drops the ball and offers Ellsbury at pennies on the dollar, the Reds should probably stay clear of the Ellsbury uncertainty.

Spitball
10-25-2012, 11:23 PM
Also, I would not be surprised to see the Red Sox hold onto Ellsbury until the trade deadline. Right now his trade value is down, and the Sox will want to show their fans they intend to be competitive.

blumj
10-26-2012, 05:12 AM
Also, I would not be surprised to see the Red Sox hold onto Ellsbury until the trade deadline. Right now his trade value is down, and the Sox will want to show their fans they intend to be competitive.
This, I really think they're more likely to try to trade for other teams' 1 year left of fairly expensive contract types, unless they get an offer that's too good to pass up. The last thing they want to do is sign free agents to huge long term contracts, but there's a big gulf between their current payroll obligations and their expected budget.