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View Full Version : Adding productive leadoff man is Reds' top priority



GAC
10-26-2012, 06:01 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121025&content_id=40039652&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

I didn't see where this was posted anywhere on here yet, but IMO, and with out question, this has to be this FO's #1 priority in the off-season.

Regardless of the fact we won 97 games.....


This past season, the Reds had seven different players bat first -- Zack Cozart, Drew Stubbs, Brandon Phillips and Chris Heisey saw the most time there, with Willie Harris, Xavier Paul and Wilson Valdez also getting cameo appearances.

The result? Reds leadoff hitters combined to bat .208 with a .254 on-base percentage -- both ranked last in the Major Leagues. The No. 1 hitters scored 83 runs, tied for the second-worst among the 30 big league teams.

For the last few years we've basically been trying to fit a square peg in a round hole in this area.

We're all excited and dreaming of Billy Hamilton. But the earliest we'll see him is the 2014 season. He's not only learning a new position (CF), but he also has to be allowed to progress through the system and show he can hit, consistently get on base, at this level. So he's not going to be rushed.

So what does this FO do in the meantime?

Bourn would be nice. Two words though.... Scott Boras. He will be a coveted prize this off-season by a lot of teams. Boras is licking his chops, and IMO, no way you'll see him a Red.

The Giant's Pagan, who will be a FA after the WS, would be nice. My guess is he'll stay a Giant because they will throw the money at him.

So what's left? I realize that anything, when looking at who may be available in the market, is better then what we had. So do we settle for that, treat it as a stop-gap move, while keeping our fingers crossed on Hamilton?

I really want no part of Coco Crisp. Not at $7M/yr, and a career .329 OB%. I guess if I had to choose anyone from this article it would be Juan Pierre... he will rack up the singles and walks, batted .307 with a .351 OBP and 37 steals for the Phillies this past season, and earned $800,000 doing it. He's in our price range.

It's just sad what has happened to Grady Sizemore. Always liked him, but the guy has been wrecked with injuries (back, knees).

Raisor
10-26-2012, 06:55 AM
I'd just keep BP there for the whole season.

Reds need a big bat, not another little one.

RedsManRick
10-26-2012, 09:42 AM
If I had to bet on one guy the Reds pick up, I think it's Denard Span (for young pitching).

Tadasimha
10-26-2012, 09:43 AM
They should bat Votto at lead-off. Phillips has been a better hitter in the 3rd or 4th spot than leading off for the past several seasons. Votto is an on-base machine and hitting doubles the way he does from the lead-off spot would put a runner in scoring position immediately.

Let Cozart bat 2nd (he hit 100 points higher from that spot than from leadoff) then follow with Bruce, Phillips, Frazier, LF, CF (whomever that is), Hannigan/Mes, pitcher.

Another advantage of moving Votto up is that the Reds wouldn't be at a disadvantage negotiating a trade or signing a FA since what they need (a left handed outfielder with high OBP) wouldn't be as specific.

RedEye
10-26-2012, 09:52 AM
They should bat Votto at lead-off. Phillips has been a better hitter in the 3rd or 4th spot than leading off for the past several seasons. Votto is an on-base machine and hitting doubles the way he does from the lead-off spot would put a runner in scoring position immediately.

Let Cozart bat 2nd (he hit 100 points higher from that spot than from leadoff) then follow with Bruce, Phillips, Frazier, LF, CF (whomever that is), Hannigan/Mes, pitcher.

Another advantage of moving Votto up is that the Reds wouldn't be at a disadvantage negotiating a trade or signing a FA since what they need (a left handed outfielder with high OBP) wouldn't be as specific.

I'm told that ultimately batting order doesn't matter that much -- as long as your best hitters are somewhere at the top, you are doing something right, which is why Dusty's lineups are sometimes so frustrating. I think batting Joey leadoff would make sense given his propensity for getting on-base. Certainly, the version of Votto we saw post-knee this season could be a dynamite leadoff hitter. Think Tony Gwynn.

But if we get the Joey we all know and love -- the one with the 1.000+ OPS, the doubles machine who hits 30 HR by accident with his "process swing" -- then I think leadoff is a mistake. He's the guy you want hitting with other people on the basepaths; that's how you maximize the value of his XBH.

Superdude
10-26-2012, 09:58 AM
I'm told that ultimately batting order doesn't matter that much -- as long as your best hitters are somewhere at the top, you are doing something right, which is why Dusty's lineups are sometimes so frustrating. I think batting Joey leadoff would make sense given his propensity for getting on-base. Certainly, the version of Votto we saw post-knee this season could be a dynamite leadoff hitter. Think Tony Gwynn.

If Votto still isn't pre-surgery Votto, we've got a lot bigger problems than just figuring out where to bat him in the lineup.

_Sir_Charles_
10-26-2012, 11:04 AM
I'd just keep BP there for the whole season.

Reds need a big bat, not another little one.

Spot on. Get a big LH bat for LF who can actually PLAY left field.

But, if the Reds are insistent on getting a leadoff hitter, then trading for Shin Soo Choo is my number 1 target and plop him down in left.

Raisor
10-26-2012, 11:20 AM
I think we can all agree that as long as Dusty is managing the team, Brandon is going to hit in one of the top four spots in the lineup.

Career numbers in those spots

1 265/325/426 751
2 279/322/427 749
3 277/323/428 750
4 282/331/454 785

IMO 750 and 785 are not acceptable numbers for the 3rd and 4th spots
That leaves leadoff or second.

I'd keep him at leadoff.

Blitz Dorsey
10-26-2012, 11:27 AM
If I had to bet on one guy the Reds pick up, I think it's Denard Span (for young pitching).

Winner! (I hope.)

Benihana
10-26-2012, 11:46 AM
Spot on. Get a big LH bat for LF who can actually PLAY left field.

But, if the Reds are insistent on getting a leadoff hitter, then trading for Shin Soo Choo is my number 1 target and plop him down in left.

Agree with this. My priorities:

1. Justin Upton
2. Dexter Fowler
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
4. Shin Soo-Choo
5. Re-sign Ryan Ludwick to a 2 year deal and get a one year stop-gap in CF.

Edd Roush
10-26-2012, 12:01 PM
Winner! (I hope.)

If the Reds get Denard Span this off-season, I will be very happy. Then, I will wonder, if the Reds liked him, why didn't we get him at the trade deadline. I really think Denard Span could have been the difference between an NLDS heartbreaker and something more in the post-season.

Span just makes so much sense for a team like the Reds. Let's hope Walt gets it done.

M2
10-26-2012, 01:46 PM
The Reds need OB. If it comes attached to power great. If it comes attached to speed, that's fine too. And Phillips' main offensive value is putting the ball in play with runners on base. He's a better #2 hitter than a #1 hitter.

Plus, it's time the Reds gave Dusty what he wants. He wants a CF who can hit leadoff. Stubbs can't do it, at least not vs. RHPs. Time to get someone who can.

Benihana
10-26-2012, 02:01 PM
The Reds need OB. If it comes attached to power great. If it comes attached to speed, that's fine too. And Phillips' main offensive value is putting the ball in play with runners on base. He's a better #2 hitter than a #1 hitter.

Plus, it's time the Reds gave Dusty what he wants. He wants a CF who can hit leadoff. Stubbs can't do it, at least not vs. RHPs. Time to get someone who can.

Reds need a CF and a LF. Reds need a leadoff hitter and a power hitter. Hopefully both can get on base. Seems pretty simple to me.

dougdirt
10-26-2012, 02:47 PM
Reds need a CF and a LF. Reds need a leadoff hitter and a power hitter. Hopefully both can get on base. Seems pretty simple to me.

It seems simple.... until we see how little money they will likely have.

Benihana
10-26-2012, 03:00 PM
It seems simple.... until we see how little money they will likely have.

I'm not entirely convinced that will be the case. They are preparing for a much bigger windfall than has previously been reported.

RedEye
10-26-2012, 03:03 PM
If Votto still isn't pre-surgery Votto, we've got a lot bigger problems than just figuring out where to bat him in the lineup.

We are agreed on that, sir. But I think he will be.

mace
10-26-2012, 03:15 PM
The Reds need OB. If it comes attached to power great. If it comes attached to speed, that's fine too. And Phillips' main offensive value is putting the ball in play with runners on base. He's a better #2 hitter than a #1 hitter.

Plus, it's time the Reds gave Dusty what he wants. He wants a CF who can hit leadoff. Stubbs can't do it, at least not vs. RHPs. Time to get someone who can.

I think this is an excellent point. Jocketty, for the most part, pays attention to and does well in the area of synergy, chemistry, etc. He pursues players who work well with other players. I don't believe the Reds were at all deficient in that area, and I think that aspect of the roster served them well. But the same dynamic operates in the manager-GM relationship. The manager and GM have to complement each other. As M2 said, Dusty is absolutely a champion of the CF/leadoff type. To make him the best manager he can be, it's incumbent upon Jocketty to supply that player. He tried with Patterson and Taveras, but not hard or effectively enough. Dusty attempted to force the issue with Stubbs, and it was an unsightly mismatch. Given the job Dusty did this year, and the contract extension, it's absolutely time that he is afforded the type of player he prefers to work with at the top of the lineup.

dougdirt
10-26-2012, 05:03 PM
I'm not entirely convinced that will be the case. They are preparing for a much bigger windfall than has previously been reported.

Fay reported just yesterday that the Reds won't be big players in free agency. Has something come out since yesterday afternoon that says otherwise?

westofyou
10-26-2012, 05:17 PM
Fay reported just yesterday that the Reds won't be big players in free agency. Has something come out since yesterday afternoon that says otherwise?

When have they ever been players, much alone big players?

There is no way this team dumps cash on a big name FA or a long term contract for a guy who has never played for the Reds.

They already have the big cogs, I look for them to fill in spaces with under the radar guys or ones that need another chance

DGullett35
10-26-2012, 05:17 PM
When I read the article on Reds.com they sounded like that the Reds are going to keep Stubbs. If stubbs is back I would think hes our starting CF(Im guessing what the front office brass is thinking). That means if they really are looking for a leadoff hitter than that guy will have to play LF. This also means no Luddy. With that situation we may end up with a decent leadoff hitter but then we wont have the middle of the order bat to protect our 2 LH hitters. Basically what Im saying is that we still need Luddy if the money is right to hit 4th and Id love to pick up a Crisp or even Span to play the CF position and bat leadoff. If the Reds really want to keep Stubbs he would have to be our 4th OF because if he starts this team will be without either a good leadoff hitter or a middle of the order bat. I also think that with the extensions 2 of our pitchers need and the money we have already spent in the lineup paying for Luddy and a good leadoff hitter may be pushing it. Hopefully Castellini can push the budget up just a little. IMO I look for Pierre to be signed and Phillips to bat 4th all year. Just my 2 cents

REDREAD
10-26-2012, 05:23 PM
Spot on. Get a big LH bat for LF who can actually PLAY left field.

But, if the Reds are insistent on getting a leadoff hitter, then trading for Shin Soo Choo is my number 1 target and plop him down in left.

Yes, I agree.
It sure would be nice to get a CF with a high OBP, but supposedly they were asking a king's ransom for Span.. If we are going to pay through the nose, I'd rather do it on a guy like Choo. Hopefully the Indians are in tear down mode this winter.

And yes, I'm also more worried about replacing Ludwick's production than I am in upgrading CF.

Wonderful Monds
10-26-2012, 05:29 PM
I don't see any urgency to acquire a leadoff hitter. We already have one in Brandon Phillips. Just get a good CF period. If he just so happens to fit the profile of a leadoff man, fine. But the front office should lock themselves into certain requirements and pass on other available productive guys just because they aren't fast.

Luckily, I don't see them as the type to do that.

Kc61
10-26-2012, 05:47 PM
Fay reported just yesterday that the Reds won't be big players in free agency. Has something come out since yesterday afternoon that says otherwise?

LOL, I like Fay and the beat writers, they perform a great service for Reds fans, but they report virtually EVERY year that the Reds won't be players for free agents.

I haven't fully researched it but I was waiting for yesterday's statement in Fay's blog -- and, as expected, it came.

On November 19, 2011 Fay's blog was entitled "Reds unlikely to do much as far as free agency."

On November 16, 2010, Fay wrote "Jocketty: Reds may not sign outside FAs."

On November 19, 2009, MLB.com (Sheldon) had a piece "Reds won't be busy in free agency. General Manager Jocketty doesn't expect to be active."

Maybe it all comes from Walt, I don't know. I'm sure the beat writers and Jocketty fully believe the statements. But I just can't take these as ironclad, they are just routine statements that show up every year.

We'll see.

REDREAD
10-26-2012, 06:26 PM
LOL, I like Fay, he performs a great service for Reds fans, but he reports virtually EVERY year that the Reds won't be players for free agents.

.

Yep, last year, the word on the street was that the Reds had no money.
Yet they pulled in Madson, surprising everyone.
Marshall was acquired and extended (another expensive add)
Ludwick wasn't super pricey, but also a notable signing.

I don't expect a huge spending spree, but I think there's some budget room to add talent (maybe through a trade, but money there).. I have faith in Cast.

jojo
10-26-2012, 06:40 PM
The Dbacks are shopping outfielders this offseason.

fearofpopvol1
10-27-2012, 02:02 AM
Based on all the facts, I would try to sign Pierre to a 1 year deal if he'll bite. I think it's the best option for next season and pray that Hamilton is ready by 2014.

Span is sort of intriguing, but what would it take to get him? He may only truly be needed be needed for 1 year of his 3 years left on his deal. The last year of his deal (2015), he starts to get pretty expensive comparatively speaking and I don't think anyone would trade much for him at that point. He obviously does get on base well and plays good defense, but he had a breakout year in 2012 with all the doubles he had. Can he keep that up?

GAC
10-27-2012, 09:38 AM
If I had to bet on one guy the Reds pick up, I think it's Denard Span (for young pitching).

Wow! I didn't know the Reds had, at one point earlier this year, talked with the Twins about Span

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/scott-miller/19695766/sources-reds-talking-denard-span-with-twins

Another interesting article on Span (and the Twins)....

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_21636768/denard-span-willing-swallow-my-pride-stay-minnesota

He's signed through 2014 (13:$4.75M, 14:$6.5M), with a club option for 2015 ($9M).

The Twins have depth in the OF position within their system. They're hurting for starting pitching. What could we offer them that may be appealing to them?

A deal like this would be great IMO. You've got him signed through 2014, which coincides with Hamilton's projected entrance. It fills a need, and buys you some time at no great cost. And if nothing else, could he be moved to LF?

Raisor
10-27-2012, 09:49 AM
Pierre can't play CF. Replacing Ludwick's OPS in 2012 with Pierre is a step down for the offense, even if the leadoff spot improves.

PuffyPig
10-27-2012, 10:22 AM
Yes, I agree.
It sure would be nice to get a CF with a high OBP, but supposedly they were asking a king's ransom for Span.. If we are going to pay through the nose, I'd rather do it on a guy like Choo. Hopefully the Indians are in tear down mode this winter.



You'd rather pay through the nose for one year of a corner OF (Choo) rather than 3 years of a CF?

_Sir_Charles_
10-27-2012, 10:29 AM
Fay reported just yesterday that the Reds won't be big players in free agency. Has something come out since yesterday afternoon that says otherwise?

I agree that we won't dabble much in FA as usual, but for what it's worth...Fay say that exact same thing every single year and he's always stunned when we DO get a guy.

~edit~ Oh well, I see that others have already pounced on this. *grin* I really should read the WHOLE thread before posting. NAH!

Griffey012
10-27-2012, 11:02 AM
I'd just keep BP there for the whole season.

Reds need a big bat, not another little one.

I have been on board with acquiring Span in the off-season to bat lead-off and play LF or CF depending on who we trade and who else we pick up. Unless we pick up a big time bat in left field, which will be hard to do due to financial constraints, this probably puts BP back in the 4 hole or potentially Frazier.

While BP isn't the best 4-hole option in baseball, he is solid and consistent, and has done a respectable job in the 4-hole previously. Also, if Frazier continues to perform like he did this year, he could easily take over the 4-hole and push BP up to number 2.

Assuming we can find a cheap LF option to provide a steady but not great bat in the lineup .800 ops type. Acquiring Span would improve the lineup quite a bit. I just do not want the black hole that has been CF and lead-off to continue, and I feel BP's bat is more valuable elsewhere in the lineup.

Now if we can pull of a trade for a young cheap clean-up type...I would be all on board, I just think a Span type move would add a lot as well.

RedsManRick
10-27-2012, 07:27 PM
Wow! I didn't know the Reds had, at one point earlier this year, talked with the Twins about Span

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/scott-miller/19695766/sources-reds-talking-denard-span-with-twins

Another interesting article on Span (and the Twins)....

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_21636768/denard-span-willing-swallow-my-pride-stay-minnesota

He's signed through 2014 (13:$4.75M, 14:$6.5M), with a club option for 2015 ($9M).

The Twins have depth in the OF position within their system. They're hurting for starting pitching. What could we offer them that may be appealing to them?

A deal like this would be great IMO. You've got him signed through 2014, which coincides with Hamilton's projected entrance. It fills a need, and buys you some time at no great cost. And if nothing else, could he be moved to LF?

I agree that he's pretty much a perfect fit. The Twins are a long ways from winning, so Span's nice contract is an asset that they'd be smart to capitalize on. It seems there's a deal to be had there and given where we stand, knowing Dusty's inability/unwillingness to think outside the box with his lineups, I think it's a move Jocketty would make.

I think it would take Cigrani/Corcino + another top 10 guy like Soto or LaMarre -- unless they wanted only pitching in which case I'm not sure who else it would be. The Reds have 4 really solid pitching prospects in Stephenson, Cigrani, Corcino and Travieso, but it doesn't seem like there's very much behind them. Lotzkar or Cisco maybe?

I'd be curious to see what Doug thinks about that price though; not really sure how the Reds prospects are regarded.

Vottomatic
10-27-2012, 10:14 PM
I'm a Dexter Fowler fan. I know, I know.......the Coors effect.

But off the top of my head, I think he's a switch hitter and he's only 26 with his best years ahead of him. Increasing OBP too.

Vottomatic
10-27-2012, 10:19 PM
OK. I quit being lazy and pulled up his career numbers.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fowlede01.shtml

Switch hitter. 26 years old. (good memory by me)
OBP of .389 last year (career high)
Batting average of .300 last year (career high)
Lead the league in triples back in 2010 and has had double figures in triples each of the last 4 years.

Again, I know Coors inflates numbers, but he's only 26 and under control through 2016. His best years are ahead of him.

Phhhl
10-28-2012, 03:25 AM
Put me down in favor of Pagan on a two year deal. He had a nice season, but I don't see the Giants rolling the brinks truck up for him with a substantial prospect like Brown on the cusp. Additionally, I don't see other teams knocking down the door for him, either. Pagan is a good defender, especially in a cozy of like GABP. He is a smart player, who does not get caught stealing often, and has enough power to exploit GABP for 10-15 home runs over the course of a season. Investing in him gives the Reds leverage with Ludwick. If Ludwick doesn't sign for a reasonable deal, all they have to do is drop Phillips down in the order to compensate. Assuming Votto is going to return to his pre-injury form, a modest investment in a player like Pagan could really provide value at a number of spots in the lineup. While he might not offer the type of discipline an elite leadoff hitter might provide, I consider him at least equal to guys like Victorino and Crisp, and a substantial improvement over the Juan Pierre's of the world.

If the Reds could sign a guy fitting Pagan's profile, they could live with either Ludwick or a platoon of Heisey/Paul in left field and be a much better offense in 2013. I would go with Victorino is a secondary target, and after that spend anything left on strengthening the bullpen.

There are no ifs, ands or buts... when you are paying a guy the money Joey is going to be making in Cincinnati there is NO QUESTION about him returning to who he was before the knee injury or else you are screwed, rendering all other considerations irrelavent. To even bring it up as a possibility is the depths of pessimism.

Griffey012
10-28-2012, 04:16 AM
I'm a Dexter Fowler fan. I know, I know.......the Coors effect.

But off the top of my head, I think he's a switch hitter and he's only 26 with his best years ahead of him. Increasing OBP too.

Ditto, if I wasn't so lazy, I could dig up a post from last off-season or early this season in which I suggested targeting him. He could probably be had for cheaper than Span as well, and provide as good/better numbers. Glad you brought him up because I had basically forgotten about him.

And with that type of hitter, I don't think the Coors effect is a thing really.

camisadelgolf
10-28-2012, 06:27 AM
The Twins were 66-96 and last place in a weak AL Central. On the surface, it seems like they're far from the playoffs, but I'm not entirely convinced they can't turn it around fast. Although their lineup's not great, it's not awful either. And their bullpen is somewhat respectable. But when Baker went down, so did their season.

If they can get a decent rotation together, we might be talking about a winning team. What I'm getting at is that there's a decent chance they're not looking to rebuild just yet. Between Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks, they have some outfield depth they're excited about, which could make Span expendable.

They announced that re-signing Baker to an incentive-laden deal is their top priority. I'm sure some high-ceiling starters looking to make a comeback would love to go to the Twin Cities because A.) Target Field is supposedly pitcher-friendly, and B.) they know there'll be plenty of opportunity. That means they could go into 2013 with this rotation:
1. Baker
2. Diamond
3. free agent on a reasonable contract (e.g. Erik Bedard, Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Carlos Zambrano, et al)
4. Blackburn
5. De Vries/Hermsen/Hernandez

If they were to pull off a Span-for-Bailey (+ a prospect) deal, it would greatly improve their rotation and make room for Aaron Hicks. It makes a lot of sense for them. Does it make sense for the Reds? I don't know. But if the Reds think so, they need to make it happen.

mth123
10-28-2012, 08:13 AM
The Twins were 66-96 and last place in a weak AL Central. On the surface, it seems like they're far from the playoffs, but I'm not entirely convinced they can't turn it around fast. Although their lineup's not great, it's not awful either. And their bullpen is somewhat respectable. But when Baker went down, so did their season.

If they can get a decent rotation together, we might be talking about a winning team. What I'm getting at is that there's a decent chance they're not looking to rebuild just yet. Between Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks, they have some outfield depth they're excited about, which could make Span expendable.

They announced that re-signing Baker to an incentive-laden deal is their top priority. I'm sure some high-ceiling starters looking to make a comeback would love to go to the Twin Cities because A.) Target Field is supposedly pitcher-friendly, and B.) they know there'll be plenty of opportunity. That means they could go into 2013 with this rotation:
1. Baker
2. Diamond
3. free agent on a reasonable contract (e.g. Erik Bedard, Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Carlos Zambrano, et al)
4. Blackburn
5. De Vries/Hermsen/Hernandez

If they were to pull off a Span-for-Bailey (+ a prospect) deal, it would greatly improve their rotation and make room for Aaron Hicks. It makes a lot of sense for them. Does it make sense for the Reds? I don't know. But if the Reds think so, they need to make it happen.

If the Reds are dealing Bailey for Span, the Twins should be the ones throwing in the prospect IMO (and a pretty good prospect at that). Leake for Span seems more reasonable, and I'd still want an arm back to be a long reliever/6th starter type. Somebody like Hendricks, Duensing or Swarzak. I'd throw in a spare part if need be. Say Ondrusek.

GAC
10-28-2012, 09:48 AM
Leake for Span seems more reasonable, and I'd still want an arm back to be a long reliever/6th starter type. Somebody like Hendricks, Duensing or Swarzak. I'd throw in a spare part if need be. Say Ondrusek.

Span is a pretty solid OFer who is now reaching his prime. If I was the Twins, you'd have to sweeten the pot more, other then a Leake/Ondrusek, to get me to bite.

mth123
10-28-2012, 10:44 AM
Span is a pretty solid OFer who is now reaching his prime. If I was the Twins, you'd have to sweeten the pot more, other then a Leake/Ondrusek, to get me to bite.

Then they can keep him. He's an improvement, but had 2 bad years prior to this year and doesn't really addess the Reds need against RHP. There are other options who are better fits if Homer is the price.

jojo
10-28-2012, 12:08 PM
Leake has basically very little trade value.

traderumor
10-28-2012, 07:50 PM
I would not have imagined that anyone would make Travis Wood the cornerstone of a deal for an above average setup man, but that happened. I could see Leake being a part of a deal that meets a need if packaged with a prospect, or maybe one of our expendable relievers with a decent contract like Arredondo (crosses fingers).

jojo
10-28-2012, 07:56 PM
How does everyone feel about Gerardo Parra? He could probably suit the lead off role at least against righties forcing Phillips to the two hole (or lower) against Phillips' kryptonite.

The Dbacks seem intent upon trading an outfielder.

traderumor
10-28-2012, 08:06 PM
How does everyone feel about Gerardo Parra? He could probably suit the lead off role at least against righties forcing Phillips to the two hole (or lower) against Phillips' kryptonite.

The Dbacks seem intent upon trading an outfielder.I like Parra, send 'em Leake and Arredondo.

mth123
10-28-2012, 08:14 PM
How does everyone feel about Gerardo Parra? He could probably suit the lead off role at least against righties forcing Phillips to the two hole (or lower) against Phillips' kryptonite.

The Dbacks seem intent upon trading an outfielder.

Love the idea. A Parra/Stubbs platoon would be pretty darned good IMO.

Not sure how intent they still are though. They dealt Young and acquired a SS in Cliff Pennington. They were rumored to be interested in Didi. Not sure if the deal involving Young and Pennington kills the desire for Didi or to deal an OF.

lollipopcurve
10-28-2012, 08:31 PM
How does everyone feel about Gerardo Parra?

I like Parra. Excellent defender, can play all 3 spots. Solid if unspectacular LH bat with still some room to grow.

camisadelgolf
10-29-2012, 03:12 AM
I like Parra, too, but the Diamondbacks just traded away Chris Young, which clears up some room for him. But if Adam Eaton proves he's more deserving at some point next year (he's off to a good start), Parra might be the next one on the block. Then again, we keep hearing Upton's name come up in rumors, and since Upton would pull in a bigger haul, he might be the next one to go.

Rojo
10-29-2012, 01:46 PM
I like Parra. Excellent defender, can play all 3 spots. Solid if unspectacular LH bat with still some room to grow.

Also, he's Venezuelan. Apparently that's key.

REDREAD
10-29-2012, 02:57 PM
Then they can keep him. He's an improvement, but had 2 bad years prior to this year and doesn't really addess the Reds need against RHP. There are other options who are better fits if Homer is the price.

Yep, I agree. I'm not selling the farm for Span.
It seems the Twins were asking the moon for him at the trade dealine.
If they continue to overvalue him this winter, time to find a different target.

M2
10-29-2012, 03:26 PM
At some juncture you have to believe that teams as bereft of pitching at the Twins and Rockies will figure out that Span or Fowler for a minor league package is the general direction they need to go.

I'd be fine with Parra, but what do the D-Backs want? SS maybe. They don't have a lot of holes, at least not gaping ones.

Wonderful Monds
10-29-2012, 05:13 PM
I don't understand the logic behind putting a lot resources towards a long term CF. there's one in our own system that will need a chance soon.

Go short term, get a stop gap. Don't trade the bulk of our remaining good minor leaguers for a position that might not be a hole much longer.

lollipopcurve
10-29-2012, 05:28 PM
I'd be fine with Parra, but what do the D-Backs want? SS maybe. They don't have a lot of holes, at least not gaping ones.

Per mlb.com today, they're looking for a starter (innings-eater), a lefty out of the pen and maybe a 3B.

Blitz Dorsey
10-29-2012, 06:23 PM
The reason the Reds didn't trade for Span at the deadline was because the Twins were demanding Cingrani (per MLBTradeRumors, I believe). That's too high of a price. If the Twins' demands have come down, the Reds should jump all over the chance at getting him. If not, I don't expect a deal will get done. Cingrani's stock has only risen since then (and it was plenty high to begin with). No way the Reds trade Cingrani for Span, but hopefully they can find a way to put a package of lesser players together for Span. I agree Leake/Ondrusek wouldn't be enough. Maybe Gregorius & Lotzkar? I wouldn't like to deal Didi, but I think Cozart is the long-term answer at SS even though he struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs. Have to remember the kid was a rookie, despite his age. He'll get better for sure, and was very solid as a rookie.

Whatever happens, the Reds need to address the CF/leadoff hitter situation. I can't stomach any more of Drew Stubbs in the starting lineup, even batting 7th or 8th.

dougdirt
10-29-2012, 06:28 PM
The reason the Reds didn't trade for Span at the deadline was because the Twins were demanding Cingrani (per MLBTradeRumors, I believe). That's too high of a price. If the Twins' demands have come down, the Reds should jump all over the chance at getting him. If not, I don't expect a deal will get done. Cingrani's stock has only risen since then (and it was plenty high to begin with). No way the Reds trade Cingrani for Span, but hopefully they can find a way to put a package of lesser players together for Span. I agree Leake/Ondrusek wouldn't be enough. Maybe Gregorius & Lotzkar? I wouldn't like to deal Didi, but I think Cozart is the long-term answer at SS even though he struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs. Have to remember the kid was a rookie, despite his age. He'll get better for sure, and was very solid as a rookie.

Whatever happens, the Reds need to address the CF/leadoff hitter situation. I can't stomach any more of Drew Stubbs in the starting lineup, even batting 7th or 8th.

Zach Cozart will be 27 years old next season (he actually turned 27 during last season). He posted a .288 OBP. To expect much growth from that is probably not a good plan. If he were 22 or 23, or had a really low BABIP, then maybe. But he isn't and he didn't.

PuffyPig
10-29-2012, 07:00 PM
Cozart is an acceptable answer until he gets expensive. Hopefully we'll have a cheaper option avaialble at that time. This years Cozart is likely what you will get, which is OK as long as he's cheap.

Kc61
10-29-2012, 07:07 PM
Cozart had 33 doubles and 15 homers this year. He is one of four shortstops nominated for the NL Gold Glove award.

I'm sure he'll focus on trying to boost the OBP, but Zack is a pretty fair shortstop for this team. Of course, he should hit lower in the batting order. But I wouldn't be so fast to get rid of him.

lollipopcurve
10-29-2012, 07:16 PM
Hold Cozart and Didi for 2013. 500+ ABs for both, Didi in AAA. They need to make the right call with these two. There's nobody behind them in the system.

dougdirt
10-29-2012, 07:28 PM
Cozart had 33 doubles and 15 homers this year. He is one of four shortstops nominated for the NL Gold Glove award.

I'm sure he'll focus on trying to boost the OBP, but Zack is a pretty fair shortstop for this team. Of course, he should hit lower in the batting order. But I wouldn't be so fast to get rid of him.

I am not saying get rid of him, but I wouldn't settle on him being the answer either. He is an offensively challenged player, despite good power.

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 07:31 PM
I'm a Dexter Fowler fan. I know, I know.......the Coors effect.



And with that type of hitter, I don't think the Coors effect is a thing really.

His splits would argue otherwise.

2012: 984 OPS at Coors, 720 OPS on the road
2009-2011: 910 OPS at Coors, 701 OPS on the road

Fowler is a pretty darn extreme example of the Coors effect.

Wonderful Monds
10-29-2012, 07:33 PM
His splits would argue otherwise.

2012: 984 OPS at Coors, 720 OPS on the road
2009-2011: 910 OPS at Coors, 701 OPS on the road

Fowler is a pretty darn extreme example of the Coors effect.

Agreed. No thanks on Fowler.

Sabo Fan
10-29-2012, 08:17 PM
The reason the Reds didn't trade for Span at the deadline was because the Twins were demanding Cingrani (per MLBTradeRumors, I believe). That's too high of a price. If the Twins' demands have come down, the Reds should jump all over the chance at getting him. If not, I don't expect a deal will get done. Cingrani's stock has only risen since then (and it was plenty high to begin with). No way the Reds trade Cingrani for Span, but hopefully they can find a way to put a package of lesser players together for Span. I agree Leake/Ondrusek wouldn't be enough. Maybe Gregorius & Lotzkar? I wouldn't like to deal Didi, but I think Cozart is the long-term answer at SS even though he struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs. Have to remember the kid was a rookie, despite his age. He'll get better for sure, and was very solid as a rookie.

Whatever happens, the Reds need to address the CF/leadoff hitter situation. I can't stomach any more of Drew Stubbs in the starting lineup, even batting 7th or 8th.

If it was just Cingrani for Span, I couldn't sign the paperwork fast enough. Heck, they could even have their choice of Heisey or Stubbs. Productive, affordable, contract isn't outrageous, under club control for I believe two more seasons. I'll take what Span is over what Cingrani could be any day.

Slot him in at leadoff or #2, find some cheap power in LF or 3B, let Frazier play the other spot and away we go.

M2
10-29-2012, 10:13 PM
His splits would argue otherwise.

2012: 984 OPS at Coors, 720 OPS on the road
2009-2011: 910 OPS at Coors, 701 OPS on the road

Fowler is a pretty darn extreme example of the Coors effect.

Almost every hitter who does well for the Rockies winds up with some lopsided home/road splits. Matt Holliday had them. Larry Walker had them. To me the key is whether the guy has the ability to readjust if he moves. Fowler is not a Vinny Castilla type, looking to hook the ball into the thin Colorado air. He's a gap-to-gap hitter with a good eye at the plate and I'd be mildly stunned if that didn't translate with a move closer to sea level.

Steve4192
10-29-2012, 10:31 PM
Almost every hitter who does well for the Rockies winds up with some lopsided home/road splits. Matt Holliday had them. Larry Walker had them. To me the key is whether the guy has the ability to readjust if he moves. Fowler is not a Vinny Castilla type, looking to hook the ball into the thin Colorado air. He's a gap-to-gap hitter with a good eye at the plate and I'd be mildly stunned if that didn't translate with a move closer to sea level.

Walker and Holliday were both good hitters on the road. They weren't the absolute monsters that they were at home, but they were still solidly above average. Fowler is downright Stubbsian on the road.

Cooper
10-29-2012, 11:25 PM
Is there a way to see if Fowler's Babip is low on the road?

Griffey012
10-29-2012, 11:46 PM
His splits would argue otherwise.

2012: 984 OPS at Coors, 720 OPS on the road
2009-2011: 910 OPS at Coors, 701 OPS on the road

Fowler is a pretty darn extreme example of the Coors effect.

Wow, pretty sharp splits. I clearly didn't look up any numbers and just made an assumption...a wrong assumption.

M2
10-30-2012, 12:18 AM
Is there a way to see if Fowler's Babip is low on the road?

.367 home BABIP, .339 road BABIP (baseball-reference rules)

GAC
10-30-2012, 05:57 AM
Then they can keep him. He's an improvement, but had 2 bad years prior to this year and doesn't really addess the Reds need against RHP. There are other options who are better fits if Homer is the price.

I wasn't suggesting that Homer be part of the deal. I was thinking more in-line of other pitchers on the roster (LeCure for example), along with prospects.

mth123
10-30-2012, 07:31 AM
It really needs to come from CF. The easiest to acquire would be a platoon guy who can share time with Stubbs until Hamilton is ready for his shot. None should require any of the Reds' starting pitchers, core relievers or major position players. Chris Heisey, Jose Arredondo, Kyle Lotzkar, H-Rod, Ryan Lamarre, Neftali Soto, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, Pedro Villareal and other spare parts would be my trade bait. I'd try to hold on to Didi, but he could go in the right deal.

1. Gerardo Parra
2. David Dejesus
3. Brett Gardner if the Yankees are giving him away to make room for a "name" (Josh Hamilton? Ichiro?).
4. Angel Pagan is probably out of the Reds' price range now.
5. Coco Crisp but they need to take Masset to even the money a bit.
6. Denard Span but he'd probably require more talent than I'd pay and doesn't really improve the team against RHP much.
7. Shane Victorino if the price drops to a reasonable deal similar to the one the Reds gave Ludwick last year.
8. Wil Venable if they think 80 to 100 starts in CF is doable with his defensive ability.

Given what I'd be willing to pay, I'd guess Dejesus is the most realistic target, but there are enough of these guys out there (behind the bigger CF prizes like Hamilton and Bourn) that the Reds should not need to wreck the pitching staff to upgrade CF against RHP. The bar is so low, even a flawed, marginal player could provide meaningful improvement IMO.

Cooper
10-30-2012, 10:51 AM
Bill James mentioned he'd like to see someone who is failing with the whip it (28oz bat) strategy -try a 40 oz bat and see what would happen. He reports that the heavier bat leads to more bat control and a bigger zone on the bat to get good wood on it.

I would like to nominate Drew Stubbs as a fella who should think about trying it. A larger bat would slow down his swing and also mean he would have a bigger hitting zone - the whip it strategy does not work for him (excepting his low babip). Why do i feel like he's resistant to change? Maybe it was him not wanting to go to the minors after his injury -idk. The guy needs a complete over haul. Him hitting a ball 425ft 2 times a month isn't getting it done.

One more thing, I have this theory that GABP hurts a CFer's defensive numbers. There's not a lot of gap room to chase balls down. Can someone find out what Stubbs numbers are as a fielder on the road? Maybe some of his talent doesn't get to shine based on him playing CF in a park the size of a living room (keep in mind, all players defensive numbers tend to go down on the road based on not knowing the park as well). I wonder if you put Drew in a bigger park, if his numbers wouldn't increase.

jhu1321
10-30-2012, 12:54 PM
If it was just Cingrani for Span, I couldn't sign the paperwork fast enough. Heck, they could even have their choice of Heisey or Stubbs. Productive, affordable, contract isn't outrageous, under club control for I believe two more seasons. I'll take what Span is over what Cingrani could be any day.

Slot him in at leadoff or #2, find some cheap power in LF or 3B, let Frazier play the other spot and away we go.

I agree with everything in this post. However, I suspect they were asking for much more than just Cingrani..... Walt would have been all over it if that was all they were asking for.

Scrap Irony
10-30-2012, 01:22 PM
Per mlb.com today, they're looking for a starter (innings-eater), a lefty out of the pen and maybe a 3B.

A Leake-Parra deal would work for both teams, IMO. (Or, if you prefer, Leake and Stubbs for Parra and a middling prospect.)

If you really wanted to make a splash, the following blockbuster would do just that:
Mike Leake
Todd Frazier
Sean Marshall

Justin Upton
Chris Johnson


Reds grab an elite talent to plug in LF and cleanup. They also get a solid, dependable 3B who may blossom into an above average bat and glove.

D'Backs get an innings eater who's still young and cheap, a young (cheap) 3B with upside, and an elite set-up guy.

Lots of risk, but the payoff could be huge.

traderumor
10-30-2012, 01:30 PM
A Leake-Parra deal would work for both teams, IMO. (Or, if you prefer, Leake and Stubbs for Parra and a middling prospect.)

If you really wanted to make a splash, the following blockbuster would do just that:
Mike Leake
Todd Frazier
Sean Marshall

Justin Upton
Chris Johnson


Reds grab an elite talent to plug in LF and cleanup. They also get a solid, dependable 3B who may blossom into an above average bat and glove.

D'Backs get an innings eater who's still young and cheap, a young (cheap) 3B with upside, and an elite set-up guy.

Lots of risk, but the payoff could be huge.I wouldn't do this deal until I had resigned Madson or acquired an above average reliever, and even then, I'm not sure that Marshall is the right guy to put in an Upton deal. Taking out our two best lefties from the pen is surely going to have an impact without some other big moves happening.

Kc61
10-30-2012, 03:54 PM
It really needs to come from CF. The easiest to acquire would be a platoon guy who can share time with Stubbs until Hamilton is ready for his shot. None should require any of the Reds' starting pitchers, core relievers or major position players. Chris Heisey, Jose Arredondo, Kyle Lotzkar, H-Rod, Ryan Lamarre, Neftali Soto, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, Pedro Villareal and other spare parts would be my trade bait. I'd try to hold on to Didi, but he could go in the right deal.

1. Gerardo Parra
2. David Dejesus
3. Brett Gardner if the Yankees are giving him away to make room for a "name" (Josh Hamilton? Ichiro?).
4. Angel Pagan is probably out of the Reds' price range now.
5. Coco Crisp but they need to take Masset to even the money a bit.
6. Denard Span but he'd probably require more talent than I'd pay and doesn't really improve the team against RHP much.
7. Shane Victorino if the price drops to a reasonable deal similar to the one the Reds gave Ludwick last year.
8. Wil Venable if they think 80 to 100 starts in CF is doable with his defensive ability.

Given what I'd be willing to pay, I'd guess Dejesus is the most realistic target, but there are enough of these guys out there (behind the bigger CF prizes like Hamilton and Bourn) that the Reds should not need to wreck the pitching staff to upgrade CF against RHP. The bar is so low, even a flawed, marginal player could provide meaningful improvement IMO.

I think Victorino will sign with the Reds. Not my choice, but I'm guessing he's the Red's choice.

Reds may value defense too much to go with DeJesus, who is increasingly becoming a corner outfielder.

With Hamilton on the way up, I don't think the Reds will trade very much for a young CFer. Nor do I think they will spend a lot of cash on CF.

Victorino is at the stage in his career where he shouldn't command too much money. He didn't have a good year last season.

Again, he's not my choice. I prefer someone who is a better left handed hitter. But with Hamilton on the way, I'd guess it's Shane.

REDREAD
10-31-2012, 03:39 PM
I agree with everything in this post. However, I suspect they were asking for much more than just Cingrani..... Walt would have been all over it if that was all they were asking for.

Yea, I don't remember specifics (or even if specifics were named).
I do remember the Twins saying that since Span was signed to such a club friendly contract, they were in no hurry to trade him and the trade price was going to be through the roof. With that attitude, they are probably going to have him for the duration of his contract. He's a nice player, not an impact guy.
I think they wanted 3 prospects for Span.. Maybe my memory is wrong though..

You got to think that if the Twins were being reasonable, Walt would've gotten the trade done. I think Walt would've given them Cingrani plus (Heisey or Stubbs) at bare minium.

REDREAD
10-31-2012, 03:47 PM
Again, he's not my choice. I prefer someone who is a better left handed hitter. But with Hamilton on the way, I'd guess it's Shane.

Victorino on a cheap 1 year reclamation contract isn't that bad of an idea.
The guy was 31 last year, and OPSed 847 in 2011. Plus he's a switch hitter.

Ludwick's uncertain status makes me warm up to the idea more.. although I don't expect Shane to expect a team friendly deal until around Jan-Feb.. (Although that may work to our favor, as it gives us time to explore other OF options).