PDA

View Full Version : What would it take to get Justin Upton?



SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 12:00 PM
I think the Dbacks are going to start by talking Homer, Gregorious, and Soto with a throw in or two. I leave out Hamilton, because I think the Reds have made him untouchable. Would you do it?

jhu1321
11-08-2012, 12:05 PM
Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

REDREAD
11-08-2012, 12:07 PM
If it costs Homer, I think I'll pass.

We can dig up an acceptable OF (although probably not as good as Upton) without blowing a hole in the rotation.

Even if Chapman moves into the rotation, I think we're going to need Homer and Leake to make it through the season..

If I'm Walt, none of the current starters get traded (unless another SP comes from somewhere else).

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 12:11 PM
If it costs Homer, I think I'll pass.

We can dig up an acceptable OF (although probably not as good as Upton) without blowing a hole in the rotation.

Even if Chapman moves into the rotation, I think we're going to need Homer and Leake to make it through the season..

If I'm Walt, none of the current starters get traded (unless another SP comes from somewhere else).

Yeah I just don't see them doing it without at least 1 young player who's had success at the major league level, and the Reds minor league system simply isn't good enough to blow any team away for a Upton like player.

Plus Plus
11-08-2012, 12:12 PM
I think it depends on which Justin Upton you are trading for, and if his season this year (a relatively average one) is going to be representative of his performance going forward or if he will be able to play as he did in 2011 going forward.

For 2011-level Justin Upton, that's probably a reasonable package. Maybe I would try and substitute Cozart in for Gregorious, but I think it would have to include a "sure thing" pitcher like Bailey (I don't think that Corcino or Cingrani would get it done, although they might- especially Cingrani after his season and his limited stay in MLB).

For 2012-level Justin Upton, I think that's an overpay. Maybe Leake, HRod, and Duran or something might be more at the level that I would give up for this player.

It really would take some deep analysis on the Reds' part because of Upton's age, his inconsistency in his young career so far, and the inconsistency of his brother BJ's performance in Tampa Bay, especially when considered relative to his projections that many had for BJ in 2008 at the beginning of his career.

Justin Upton can be a real game-changer if he plays to his potential, but trading real-life players and prospects for a .785 OPS corner outfield bat is a pretty bad proposition for any team.

REDREAD
11-08-2012, 12:15 PM
Yeah I just don't see them doing it without at least 1 young player who's had success at the major league level, and the Reds minor league system simply isn't good enough to blow any team away for a Upton like player.

Yea, I agree from the Dbax point of view.
You're proposal was reasonable, I just wouldn't do it from the Reds' point of view.
Might be a difficult match .. In fact any trade this winter might be difficult. The Reds really only have two guys (Hamilton and Cingrani) on the cusp of ML ready. Maybe I am forgetting someone, but not a big surplus there.

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 12:17 PM
Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

Agree on the Homer trade high theory. Unlike many I like Chapman in the Closer role. I think maybe people are overvaluing Chapman's ability to contribute this season as a starter. I wonder how much he would be able to contribute this season in the rotation, because it will take time to develop the arm strength and the 2nd and 3 pitches he'll need to start in the majors. imo. I could be wrong though.

I'd look at converting JJ Hoover over to fill in if Bailey were to be traded.

Plus Plus
11-08-2012, 12:31 PM
Yea, I agree from the Dbax point of view.
You're proposal was reasonable, I just wouldn't do it from the Reds' point of view.
Might be a difficult match .. In fact any trade this winter might be difficult. The Reds really only have two guys (Hamilton and Cingrani) on the cusp of ML ready. Maybe I am forgetting someone, but not a big surplus there.

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 12:40 PM
Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

I agree to an extent. It's all about knowing your minor leaguers better than anyone else and being able to sell other gm's on them.

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 01:12 PM
Reds trade - Bailey, Corcino, Stubbs, Heisey, Lutz (future 1B to replace Helton)
Rockies trade - Fowler, CarGo

Chapman moves into Reds rotation. Reds re-sign Madson and Broxton. Cingrani in the hunt for starter position if Leake fails.

CF Fowler
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF CarGo
RF Bruce
3B Frazier
SS Cozart
C Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Arroyo
SP Chapman
SP Leake or Cingrani

CL Madson
RP Broxton
RP Marshall
RP Hoover
RP Ondrusek
RP Arredondo
RP LeCure

OF Paul /Frazier
IF Valdez
IF HRod
C Navarro
OF Phipps or Felix Perez or someone

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 01:39 PM
Reds trade - Bailey, Corcino, Stubbs, Heisey, Lutz (future 1B to replace Helton)
Rockies trade - Fowler, CarGo

Chapman moves into Reds rotation. Reds re-sign Madson and Broxton. Cingrani in the hunt for starter position if Leake fails.

CF Fowler
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF CarGo
RF Bruce
3B Frazier
SS Cozart
C Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Arroyo
SP Chapman
SP Leake or Cingrani

CL Madson
RP Broxton
RP Marshall
RP Hoover
RP Ondrusek
RP Arredondo
RP LeCure

OF Paul /Frazier
IF Valdez
IF HRod
C Navarro
OF Phipps or Felix Perez or someone

Pretty sure you wouldn't get Cargo for all of those players you mentioned, let alone him and Dexter Fowler. Cargo is probably a top 10 offensive player in the league and Fowler is solid. If the Colorado Rockies did that deal their GM should be fired immediately.

Stubbs is not a very good major league player, Heisey's a mediocre player at best. I like Lutz, but he's still relatively unknown and probably 2 years away from the Majors. So basically they'd be doing that deal for Bailey (a flyball pitcher who'd play at coors field for 81 games) and Corcino who i do like a lot, but is also probably at least a year away)

Dan
11-08-2012, 01:54 PM
Justin Upton can be a real game-changer if he plays to his potential, but trading real-life players and prospects for a .785 OPS corner outfield bat is a pretty bad proposition for any team.

That's the real kicker here. He'd definitely fit in LF or maybe CF in a pinch. But really what price do the Reds pay in terms of players going forward?

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 02:26 PM
That's the real kicker here. He'd definitely fit in LF or maybe CF in a pinch. But really what price do the Reds pay in terms of players going forward?

It's all about where the players fit in to your organization. Players like SS Didi Gregorious and 1st Basmeman Neftali Soto are presumably blocked in the Reds organization. So their main value is as trade pieces, but as you said it's predecated on what you feel the player you bring in can do for you.

I think Upton would be a huge upgrade in this offense and from a value standpoing is a pretty cost effective.

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 02:28 PM
Pretty sure you wouldn't get Cargo for all of those players you mentioned, let alone him and Dexter Fowler. Cargo is probably a top 10 offensive player in the league and Fowler is solid. If the Colorado Rockies did that deal their GM should be fired immediately.

Stubbs is not a very good major league player, Heisey's a mediocre player at best. I like Lutz, but he's still relatively unknown and probably 2 years away from the Majors. So basically they'd be doing that deal for Bailey (a flyball pitcher who'd play at coors field for 81 games) and Corcino who i do like a lot, but is also probably at least a year away)

Okay. What would it take then to get Fowler and CarGo?

I view a leadoff hitter/CFer and power hitting cleanup hitter/LFer as the last 2 pieces of the offensive puzzle. I'm just trying to come up with ideas to solve the problem.

I'm tired of older retreads in LF and Stubbs in CF. Ludwick had a killer season. I don't think he can duplicate it. Fowler and CarGo are both only 26 with probably their best years ahead of them. The Reds have nearly every key position locked up long term or filled by players under control for awhile. Other than Billy Hamilton, and probably Corcino/Cingrani.......there is little to no room for anyone currently in the farm system to even reach the majors, as they would be blocked. Time to make some deals for the last pieces of the puzzle and win this thing.

PuffyPig
11-08-2012, 02:59 PM
Reds trade - Bailey, Corcino, Stubbs, Heisey, Lutz (future 1B to replace Helton)
Rockies trade - Fowler, CarGo

Chapman moves into Reds rotation. Reds re-sign Madson and Broxton. Cingrani in the hunt for starter position if Leake fails.


That's a ton of money to add. CarGo, Fowler, Broxton and Madson add probably close to $30M to the payroll, and CarGo is still relatively cheap with huge increases coming.

And that's assuming Colorado would even do that trade.

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 03:01 PM
Okay. What would it take then to get Fowler and CarGo?

I view a leadoff hitter/CFer and power hitting cleanup hitter/LFer as the last 2 pieces of the offensive puzzle. I'm just trying to come up with ideas to solve the problem.

I'm tired of older retreads in LF and Stubbs in CF. Ludwick had a killer season. I don't think he can duplicate it. Fowler and CarGo are both only 26 with probably their best years ahead of them. The Reds have nearly every key position locked up long term or filled by players under control for awhile. Other than Billy Hamilton, and probably Corcino/Cingrani.......there is little to no room for anyone currently in the farm system to even reach the majors, as they would be blocked. Time to make some deals for the last pieces of the puzzle and win this thing.

I don't really know what needs the Rockies have to make guesses here. Cargo is an untouchable. He's unquestionably their best player and a league mvp level player who's only 27. Also if he begins any kind of decline his contract is going to becom an albatross around his team's neck. Here's his remaining figures and it's a backloaded contract
YR Age Salary
2013 (27) $7,500,000
2014 (28) $10,500,000
2015 (29) $16,000,000
2016 (30) $17,000,000
2017 (31) $20,000,000

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 03:02 PM
That's a ton of money to add. CarGo, Fowler, Broxton and Madson add probably close to $30M to the payroll, and CarGo is still relatively cheap with huge increases coming.

And that's assuming Colorado would even do that trade.

That big new TV contract for MLB and locally for the Reds, including increased ticket prices, increased season ticket sales, and overall increased attendance will pay for that $30M. :thumbup: :p ;) :eek: :laugh:

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 03:04 PM
I don't really know what needs the Rockies have to make guesses here. Cargo is an untouchable. He's unquestionably their best player and a league mvp level player who's only 27. Also if he begins any kind of decline his contract is going to becom an albatross around his team's neck. Here's his remaining figures and it's a backloaded contract
YR Age Salary
2013 (27) $7,500,000
2014 (28) $10,500,000
2015 (29) $16,000,000
2016 (30) $17,000,000
2017 (31) $20,000,000

$71M total, if I used my calculator correctly. Why not rewrite the contract and frontload it? Or make it an even $14.2M per season.

lidspinner
11-08-2012, 03:07 PM
Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........


in no way shape or form do I include one of the double C's.....those 2 have a very bright future and that future is going to start very soon for the Reds....I think you will see big things from both of those guys...be it starting or out of the pen, we are in great shape with those 2 and cheap doesnt hurt at all.....

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 03:10 PM
$71M total, if I used my calculator correctly. Why not rewrite the contract and frontload it? Or make it an even $14.2M per season.

That could be done. Don't get me wrong I'd be all for it. I just don't see it happening. He's their best player. It would be like the Reds trading Joey Votto. I just don't see them doing it. To get an all star, mvp level player you need to give up a player that is viewed as that or has the potential as having that same type of talent. They'd start talks with a Latos or if the Reds were lucky, Bailey, Billy Hamilton. and probably 2 other of the Reds top 10 prospects. That's just a guess.

PuffyPig
11-08-2012, 03:11 PM
$71M total, if I used my calculator correctly. Why not rewrite the contract and frontload it? Or make it an even $14.2M per season.


You do realize that "frontloading" a contract actually makes it more expensive.

jhu1321
11-08-2012, 03:12 PM
in no way shape or form do I include one of the double C's.....those 2 have a very bright future and that future is going to start very soon for the Reds....I think you will see big things from both of those guys...be it starting or out of the pen, we are in great shape with those 2 and cheap doesnt hurt at all.....


I agree they have bright future(s) but it's clear we need another bat (preferably one that could protect Votto). Losing ONE of them would not be bad if it helped return another bat....... especially with the core of our rotation locked up through 2015.

CySeymour
11-08-2012, 03:13 PM
You do realize that "frontloading" a contract actually makes it more expensive.

And players generally don't go for it, either.

Patrick Bateman
11-08-2012, 03:15 PM
And players generally don't go for it, either.

They would prefer it.

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 03:15 PM
I agree they have bright future(s) but it's clear we need another bat (preferably one that could protect Votto). Losing ONE of them would not be bad if it helped return another bat....... especially with the core of our rotation locked up through 2015.

This is where I'm at right now. They need to upgrade this offense, and or nothing is going to change. They need a big bat.

SidneySlicker
11-08-2012, 03:20 PM
Upton is the sexy player that's "allegedly" available. The more reasonable and probably more consistant player in my mind would be Shin Soo Choo. Even though Choo has Boras as his agent, I think he'd still be a cheaper resign then what you'd be paying for Upton. This would be my preference. I merely started this thread because I saw that talks had occured at the Gm's meetings reguarding Upton being traded.

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 03:32 PM
You do realize that "frontloading" a contract actually makes it more expensive.

How does it make it more expensive? It's guaranteed. The total is $71M. If he gets more at the backend of it, he gets a total of $71M. If he gets more at the frontend of it, he gets a total of $71M.

We already have contracts that escalate/increase over the timeframe of the contract. Why not pay most of his sooner than later to even things out later in relation to Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto's, and others to come.

Patrick Bateman
11-08-2012, 03:33 PM
How does it make it more expensive? It's guaranteed. The total is $71M. If he gets more at the backend of it, he gets a total of $71M. If he gets more at the frontend of it, he gets a total of $71M.

We already have contracts that escalate/increase over the timeframe of the contract. Why not pay most of his sooner than later to even things out later in relation to Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto's, and others to come.

Time value of money.

M2
11-08-2012, 03:45 PM
1. If the plan is to move Chapman to the rotation, then it makes sense to see if Homer can land a big fish. I'm not in favor of shopping Homer to all 29 other teams, but I wouldn't mind the Reds putting him on the table for Upton.

2. Moving Cozart might be the wiser course of action to moving Gregorius. Cozart obviously has more pop, but it wouldn't be stunning if Gregorius could improve Cozart's OB from last year. And Gregorius is younger with higher end defensive skills. If it gets you a thumper like Upton, it might make sense to move a year early on handing the SS job to Gregorius.

3. CarGo should not be untouchable. The Rockies are a mess, nearly bereft of pitching throughout the organization. If CarGo can fetch some arms they really like, then they have to consider moving him. I'm not saying Bailey and Corcino are those arms, just that the Rox ought to have a price for CarGo (whose market value might drop when he gets more expensive in the future).

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 03:46 PM
This is where I'm at right now. They need to upgrade this offense, and or nothing is going to change. They need a big bat.

Brace yourself. The way it's looking, you're gonna have Gomes or Ludwick back in the cleanup spot or maybe Jason Bay and management crossing their fingers. Cheap, cheap, and did I say cheap will be the answer at cleanup. :laugh:

PuffyPig
11-08-2012, 03:49 PM
How does it make it more expensive? It's guaranteed. The total is $71M. If he gets more at the backend of it, he gets a total of $71M. If he gets more at the frontend of it, he gets a total of $71M.



A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorow.

Wonderful Monds
11-08-2012, 03:50 PM
Brace yourself. The way it's looking, you're gonna have Gomes or Ludwick back in the cleanup spot or maybe Jason Bay and management crossing their fingers. Cheap, cheap, and did I say cheap will be the answer at cleanup. :laugh:

You say that like Ludwick was some kind of chump last year.

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 03:55 PM
You say that like Ludwick was some kind of chump last year.

Well, I already stated earlier that Ludwick had a killer season, but I don't think he can duplicate it next season.

And I don't think Ludwick puts any fear into opposing pitchers. I'd rather have an upgrade, but I know the Reds can't afford it.

UKFlounder
11-08-2012, 03:55 PM
So the faxt that they have gone the first 2 weeks of the offseaosn without a move means they will do nothing for remaining 3 months or so? Really?

Maybe time will prove you right, but it seems a bit early to be accusing this front office & owner of being cheap and unwilling to make moves.





Brace yourself. The way it's looking, you're gonna have Gomes or Ludwick back in the cleanup spot or maybe Jason Bay and management crossing their fingers. Cheap, cheap, and did I say cheap will be the answer at cleanup. :laugh:

UKFlounder
11-08-2012, 03:56 PM
Know? Or think?


Well, I already stated earlier that Ludwick had a killer season, but I don't think he can duplicate it next season.

And I don't think Ludwick puts any fear into opposing pitchers. I'd rather have an upgrade, but I know the Reds can't afford it.

Vottomatic
11-08-2012, 04:04 PM
So the faxt that they have gone the first 2 weeks of the offseaosn without a move means they will do nothing for remaining 3 months or so? Really?

Maybe time will prove you right, but it seems a bit early to be accusing this front office & owner of being cheap and unwilling to make moves.

I've applauded ownership/management for all their good moves, which are many.

But my obvious long term gripe (probably 3 years) is the obvious need for a legit cleanup bat and leadoff hitter. And management typically tools around with scrap heap filler types such as Corey Patterson, Willy Taveras, Gomes, Ludwick (which worked out).

Now, to give them the benefit of the doubt. We've all been longing for a TOR arm for a long time, and they went out and surprised us all and got Latos last season. Sooooooooooo, maybe this offseason they will surprise us and fill these obvious other needs (LF/CF/cleanup hitter/leadoff hitter).

Track record for LF/CF isn't that great. But maybe this is the offseason they address it.

Jocketty is clothed in secrety.

REDREAD
11-08-2012, 04:36 PM
Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

Point taken.. Gregorious is probably a coveted prospect by other teams.
The other guys would probably draw interest as well.

Benihana
11-08-2012, 04:42 PM
Justin Upton has always been my #1 target for the Reds (going back to last offseason).

Assuming, as Jocketty's comments yesterday indicate, that the Reds plan to move Chapman into the rotation at some point, I'd do a deal centered around one each of Homer/Leake* and Cozart/Gregorius.

My first offer would be Leake and Gregorius, but if it required the other two instead, I'd swallow hard and pull the trigger. Especially if Ludwick wants more than 2 years or $15MM.

Then sign a closer and Sizemore to platoon/play CF until Hamilton is ready, and boom- the Reds are the favorite for the pennant.



*I'd also gauge if they were willing to take one of Cingrani/Corcino along with a guy like Lotzkar instead of Bailey as the only pitcher in the deal.

cinreds21
11-08-2012, 06:00 PM
To get Justin Upton you'd have to do this:

Bailey/Leake, Cozart/Didi, Cingrani/Corcino, and Henry Rodriguez. That could be close to getting it done. You may would also have to throw in Yorman Rodriguez as well. If the deal was Bailey/Leake, Didi, Cingrani, Henry and Yoman, I'd do it in a heartbeat and not think twice.

Benihana
11-08-2012, 06:03 PM
To get Justin Upton you'd have to do this:

Bailey/Leake, Cozart/Didi, Cingrani/Corcino, and Henry Rodriguez. That could be close to getting it done. You may would also have to throw in Yorman Rodriguez as well. If the deal was Bailey/Leake, Didi, Cingrani, Henry and Yoman, I'd do it in a heartbeat and not think twice.

Leake, DiDi, Cingrani, and the Rodriguezes I would do as well in a heartbeat. Outside of Hamilton and Stephenson, I'd happily trade any 2+ minor leaguers in the system in a deal for Upton.

Sub Bailey for Leake and I might think twice.

Leake is an Arizona guy of course, hopefully that means something to them.

cinreds21
11-08-2012, 06:12 PM
I still don't think at this point trading Bailey should be a deal breaker. Yes, Bailey for the most part, had a really good season, and maybe he is turning the corner to be the Ace that everyone envisioned, but I wouldn't bet on it yet and I think you trade him now to fill a huge hole that the Reds have. If he does become that number one or number two, oh well, at least you have Justin Upton.

Benihana
11-08-2012, 06:30 PM
I still don't think at this point trading Bailey should be a deal breaker. Yes, Bailey for the most part, had a really good season, and maybe he is turning the corner to be the Ace that everyone envisioned, but I wouldn't bet on it yet and I think you trade him now to fill a huge hole that the Reds have. If he does become that number one or number two, oh well, at least you have Justin Upton.

Bailey is not a dealbreaker for me- would trade him and DiDi/Cozart for Upton. Once you add 2-3 additional minor leaguers (including Cingrani) to the mix, it would give me pause and I'd MUCH rather include Leake than Bailey.

RED VAN HOT
11-08-2012, 06:43 PM
I am not a big Justin Upton fan. He is at best, an average defender at a corner OF position. My sense is that he is a good offensive player who will never quite live up to the greatness one expects of a #1 overall pick. Kevin Towers is a very smart GM. Upton's name would not be out there over the last year if Towers saw him as a future elite hitter around which a team could be built. My guess is that Towers is willing to sell high on Upton if someone will pay up in premium prospects.

For me it comes down to Ludwick vs Upton in LF. Is the difference in production worth the extra money and premium players it would cost to bring in Upton? For me, it is not. The Reds are a 97 win team. Sign Ludwick. Put the resources into strengthening the pen and solving the lead off hitter problem.

It is not clear to me that Chapman will work out as a starter (though I would give it a try). If he does work out, I think Leake could benefit from a year at AAA and capable backup should a ML pitcher go to the DL. The Reds are not in a position to trade a starter. Keeping that rotation intact makes them competitive even if they do nothing else.

Benihana
11-08-2012, 07:31 PM
I am not a big Justin Upton fan. He is at best, an average defender at a corner OF position. My sense is that he is a good offensive player who will never quite live up to the greatness one expects of a #1 overall pick. Kevin Towers is a very smart GM. Upton's name would not be out there over the last year if Towers saw him as a future elite hitter around which a team could be built. My guess is that Towers is willing to sell high on Upton if someone will pay up in premium prospects.

For me it comes down to Ludwick vs Upton in LF. Is the difference in production worth the extra money and premium players it would cost to bring in Upton? For me, it is not. The Reds are a 97 win team. Sign Ludwick. Put the resources into strengthening the pen and solving the lead off hitter problem.

It is not clear to me that Chapman will work out as a starter (though I would give it a try). If he does work out, I think Leake could benefit from a year at AAA and capable backup should a ML pitcher go to the DL. The Reds are not in a position to trade a starter. Keeping that rotation intact makes them competitive even if they do nothing else.

If you can get Ludwick for 2 years and less than $15MM, and if he continues to produce at 2012 levels for the next 2 years, then I would agree that the trade-up to Upton is not worth the cost in salary + players.

However, if Ludwick wants more than $15MM, and/or if you think there is a decent chance he could begin to decline off of his 2012 numbers to the point where he looks more like the 2011 Ludwick, then I would disagree and say that Upton is worth it,

Scrap Irony
11-08-2012, 08:02 PM
I could see a Bailey/ Cozart/ Stubbs for Upton/ Gerardo Parra deal working out for both teams. But I'd sure prefer to see Leake substituted for Bailey.

Benihana
11-09-2012, 08:52 AM
The more I read about the Upton situation, the more I believe he could be had for Bailey and Cozart/Gregorius + a minor leaguer. If the Reds can convince Arizona to take Leake instead of Bailey, this would be an amazing move.

Alternatively and much less realistically, if the Reds could somehow get Bauer included in the deal, I'd do Bailey, either SS, one of Stubbs/Heisey and any three prospects not named Hamilton or Stephenson.

M2
11-09-2012, 01:03 PM
I could see a Bailey/ Cozart/ Stubbs for Upton/ Gerardo Parra deal working out for both teams. But I'd sure prefer to see Leake substituted for Bailey.

Whether it's Bailey or Leake, I'd be able to make instant peace with that deal. The teams match up really well in terms of making a trade. Got a feeling both could emerge quite happy with their haul.

Benihana
11-09-2012, 01:55 PM
Whether it's Bailey or Leake, I'd be able to make instant peace with that deal. The teams match up really well in terms of making a trade. Got a feeling both could emerge quite happy with their haul.

Agreed, although I'd prefer Bauer to Parra in that deal. Can't really see the Dbacks trading Upton and Parra, let alone in the same deal.

Bailey/Leake, Cozart, Stubbs, and a prospect or two for Upton and Bauer? YES! (Marv Albert voice)

LoganBuck
11-09-2012, 02:22 PM
Justin Upton would just slot so well in between Votto and Bruce. They would provide the protection he needs and really wasn't getting in Arizona, no disrespect to Goldschmidt and Kubel who had good years in their own right.

Down the stretch Bailey was just phenomenal. I just think that if you can maximize the sell high, it is time to do it. This isn't about giving up on him. It is about taking a volatile, sometimes injury prone, pitcher who is about to get expensive, and getting a potential impact bat. This assumes that a Chapman goes to the rotation, and that you are comfortable with Leake.

Bailey/Leake, Didi/Cozart, Hrod, and Corcino/Cingrani for Upton and Bauer. Bryan Price knows how to work with wacky guys like Bauer.

M2
11-09-2012, 03:00 PM
Agreed, although I'd prefer Bauer to Parra in that deal. Can't really see the Dbacks trading Upton and Parra, let alone in the same deal.

Bailey/Leake, Cozart, Stubbs, and a prospect or two for Upton and Bauer? YES! (Marv Albert voice)

I get the feeling the DBacks view Parra as a 4th OF. And that might be a correct assessment, but the Reds probably want a 4th OF type to hold down CF until Hamilton is ready (either that or a CF who can shift to LF). With Eaton, Wheeler and Pollock in the queue and Kubel in the majors, I wouldn't be shocked if Arizona was willing to move Parra too, especially if Stubbs' defense, speed and HR threat was coming back.

I suspect Bauer's as untouchable as Stephenson.

LegallyMinded
11-09-2012, 03:56 PM
Mike Newman addressed the Upton situation in a Fangraphs prospect chat today:




Comment From Tom :
Is DiDi a good enough SS prospect to be the centerpiece of a Justin Upton deal?

Mike Newman:
I'm a DiDi fan, but he's not enough. Off the top of my head, I don't think the Reds have the horses to make a deal like this happen unless Upton's value has truly dropped that much within the industry. I have spoken with contacts who do not think Upton is a franchise player, but more of a 2nd or 3rd guy on a championship ball club.

A 2nd or 3rd guy on a championship team sounds like exactly what Upton could be on the Reds (behind Votto/Bruce). It's disappointing to hear he may be out of reach for the Reds.

Benihana
11-09-2012, 03:59 PM
Mike Newman addressed the Upton situation in a Fangraphs prospect chat today:



A 2nd or 3rd guy on a championship team sounds like exactly what Upton could be on the Reds (behind Votto/Bruce). It's disappointing to hear he may be out of reach for the Reds.

I agree that DiDi wouldn't be enough, but I can't imagine Bailey isn't enough of a "horse" to headline a deal.

lollipopcurve
11-09-2012, 04:00 PM
Off the top of my head, I don't think the Reds have the horses to make a deal like this happen unless Upton's value has truly dropped that much within the industry.

Newman's wrong about this -- the Reds definitely do have the horses to deal for Upton. Whether they want to sacrifice all that AZ would want is another matter.

Benihana
11-09-2012, 04:01 PM
I suspect Bauer's as untouchable as Stephenson.

Actually according to a lot of published reports, Bauer is available. He really had an odd falling out with the Arizona brass towards the end of last year.

M2
11-09-2012, 04:13 PM
Actually according to a lot of published reports, Bauer is available. He really had an odd falling out with the Arizona brass towards the end of last year.

My inclination on that is to treat it like "Tom and Giselle are having marital problems." Given what Arizona has invested in Bauer, I'm highly skeptical anything short of Code Red Milotude would cause the organization to part with him.

Rojo
11-09-2012, 05:36 PM
Would subbing Cozart over DiDi mean we could sub Leake for Bailey? Or is it the other way around?

Rojo
11-09-2012, 05:41 PM
I get the feeling the DBacks view Parra as a 4th OF. And that might be a correct assessment, but the Reds probably want a 4th OF type to hold down CF until Hamilton is ready (either that or a CF who can shift to LF).

I'm thinking Dave Martinez-ey. But we could use a Dave Martinez.

dougdirt
11-09-2012, 07:03 PM
Actually according to a lot of published reports, Bauer is available. He really had an odd falling out with the Arizona brass towards the end of last year.

Yeah, I recall hearing things that were similar to what we heard here about Homer Bailey.... regardless of how true they were or not. That he didn't really want to listen to his coaches and that he knew the best way to get hitters out.

LegallyMinded
11-09-2012, 08:48 PM
Actually according to a lot of published reports, Bauer is available. He really had an odd falling out with the Arizona brass towards the end of last year.

The fangraphs chat also addressed Trevor Bauer:



Comment From Johnsy
Was Bauer reported to have character issues in the minors?

Marc Hulet:
I've never heard of anything specific... Scouts, from my general feeling in speaking with them, don't tend to get too worried if a guy has "questions about his makeup" because we're talking about such young kids (with rare exceptions). On the other hand, they get pretty excited about plus make-up because it's pretty rare.

Mike Newman:
I do wonder if the sentiment on Bauer is related to some of the statements he has made on Twitter. To my understanding, the DBacks have mostly left him alone and allowed him to continue his routine. I said this after seeing him and will reiterate, he was working up in the zone with a flat baseball way too much against Double-A hitters. I'd feel more comfortable if he worked more on pounding the lower half.

Sounds like there's something to the rumors of a conflict with management, but perhaps not enough to make Arizona give up on him (yet).

_Sir_Charles_
11-09-2012, 09:23 PM
I'm not a big fan of Upton's, but I think he's a pretty good target. Especially when you consider he's not a one year rental like some (signed through 2015 IIRC).

But, and this is a big "but", I do NOT deal one of the starting pitchers. Period. Whether you move Aroldis to the rotation or not, I keep all 5 of the starters from last year without a doubt. If the D-Backs are wanting a starting pitcher in the deal, then deal one of the highly touted kids (Corcino/Cingrani).

If Chapman makes the transition smoothly, simply move Leake to Louisville as insurance and further seasoning for a highly touted kid in his own right.

It just seems to me that people are awfully fast to want to trade away starting pitching here to add a big bopper. It's like we've forgotten what it was like to have hitting and no pitching. The strength of this team is pitching and defense. Don't give away that advantage so easily. Not when you've got kids in the minors who are blocked by starters who are viewed as very valuable by other teams. Follow the mold of the Latos trade. Deal excellent prospects who are blocked on the parent club.

Wonderful Monds
11-09-2012, 09:41 PM
I'm not a big fan of Upton's, but I think he's a pretty good target. Especially when you consider he's not a one year rental like some (signed through 2015 IIRC).

But, and this is a big "but", I do NOT deal one of the starting pitchers. Period. Whether you move Aroldis to the rotation or not, I keep all 5 of the starters from last year without a doubt. If the D-Backs are wanting a starting pitcher in the deal, then deal one of the highly touted kids (Corcino/Cingrani).

If Chapman makes the transition smoothly, simply move Leake to Louisville as insurance and further seasoning for a highly touted kid in his own right.

It just seems to me that people are awfully fast to want to trade away starting pitching here to add a big bopper. It's like we've forgotten what it was like to have hitting and no pitching. The strength of this team is pitching and defense. Don't give away that advantage so easily. Not when you've got kids in the minors who are blocked by starters who are viewed as very valuable by other teams. Follow the mold of the Latos trade. Deal excellent prospects who are blocked on the parent club.

Except for Leake, trade Leake ASAP. Aside from that, yeah.

_Sir_Charles_
11-09-2012, 09:48 PM
Why? Why are you wanting to deal Leake? He's young with great upside. He's a perfect foil to the current staff in the same way Bronson has been. He's got a solid K rate and BB rate. The HR rate could just be a fluke. Or it might not be. But go back and look at his season(s). He's a VERY solid pitcher. Compare him to the other #5 starters in the bigs. He's got to be a top 5 in that group. Heck, he'd probably be a middle of the pack #4 starter. Add in his ability to hit and field his position and I've got ZERO problem with having Leake on the staff. Corcino/Cingrani...we have no idea what they'll do against big league pitching. I just don't get the constant hot-stove desire to deal away either Leake or Bailey. At all.

Wonderful Monds
11-09-2012, 10:30 PM
Why? Why are you wanting to deal Leake? He's young with great upside. He's a perfect foil to the current staff in the same way Bronson has been. He's got a solid K rate and BB rate. The HR rate could just be a fluke. Or it might not be. But go back and look at his season(s). He's a VERY solid pitcher. Compare him to the other #5 starters in the bigs. He's got to be a top 5 in that group. Heck, he'd probably be a middle of the pack #4 starter. Add in his ability to hit and field his position and I've got ZERO problem with having Leake on the staff. Corcino/Cingrani...we have no idea what they'll do against big league pitching. I just don't get the constant hot-stove desire to deal away either Leake or Bailey. At all.

I'm just advocating trading him for good value. If he could be the centerpiece for a slugging LF/starting CF, I would do that ASAP.

RedsManRick
11-09-2012, 10:55 PM
The fangraphs chat also addressed Trevor Bauer:



Sounds like there's something to the rumors of a conflict with management, but perhaps not enough to make Arizona give up on him (yet).

From what I understand Bauer is a lot like Tim Lincecum. He's a very smart guy who has developed his own way of doing things, particularly in regards to his his extreme use of long tossing and assortment of pitches. They've tried to get him to fall in line and he's been fairly headstrong. I'm guessing they just don't want to deal with him and/or are concerned about his health and would prefer a more standard guy.

Superdude
11-09-2012, 11:12 PM
From what I understand Bauer is a lot like Tim Lincecum. He's a very smart guy who has developed his own way of doing things, particularly in regards to his his extreme use of long tossing and assortment of pitches. They've tried to get him to fall in line and he's been fairly headstrong. I'm guessing they just don't want to deal with him and/or are concerned about his health and would prefer a more standard guy.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121109&content_id=40225606&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

I think this article says all I need to know. We've been hearing Upton rumors for years and now Bauer's getting thrown around after 16 innings in the majors. They can be had at the right price, but no way are either of them headed back to Cincy in a deal headlined by Leake and Gregorius.

M2
11-10-2012, 01:05 AM
I'm thinking Dave Martinez-ey. But we could use a Dave Martinez.

I spent close to a decade hoping the Reds would go after Dave Martinez. And you're right, Parra's a similar player.

corkedbat
11-10-2012, 01:43 AM
Homer Bailey/Mike Leake, Zack Cozart/Didi Gregorious, Drew Stubbs/Chris Heisey, Logan Ondrusek and Chad Rogers/Kyle Lotzkar for Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer?

HokieRed
11-10-2012, 09:32 AM
Why? Why are you wanting to deal Leake? He's young with great upside. He's a perfect foil to the current staff in the same way Bronson has been. He's got a solid K rate and BB rate. The HR rate could just be a fluke. Or it might not be. But go back and look at his season(s). He's a VERY solid pitcher. Compare him to the other #5 starters in the bigs. He's got to be a top 5 in that group. Heck, he'd probably be a middle of the pack #4 starter. Add in his ability to hit and field his position and I've got ZERO problem with having Leake on the staff. Corcino/Cingrani...we have no idea what they'll do against big league pitching. I just don't get the constant hot-stove desire to deal away either Leake or Bailey. At all.

I'd like to second this, except to say I find it even more incomprehensible that there's constant mention of trading Bailey. The strength of the 2012 team was starting pitching and particularly its remarkable consistency. I like the move of Chapman to the rotation but we are a long way from knowing how successful it's going to be. That said, I hope we go to spring training with all 5 of this year's guys and Chapman. I'd deal Leake only in the most perfect of deals and I wouldn't even consider trading Bailey.

Scrap Irony
11-10-2012, 11:10 AM
From the article above:


According to reports, the D-backs would need an everyday position player or top-of-the-rotation pitcher in return as part of a deal for Upton.

"It's not about Justin. It's not like we are shopping him," Hall continued. "We are willing to listen to anybody, and we've always said that. I think what happens is that if opposing GMs talk to Kevin or anybody on our staff and say, 'Hey, are you willing to talk about Justin?' and we say 'Yes,' -- to the media it's, 'Hey, they are willing to talk Justin,' and there it goes and it spirals out of control."


Stubbs, Cozart, and Leake for Upton?

I'm guessing that might get it done.

Phillips 2B
Upton LF
Votto 1B
Frazier 3B
Bruce RF
Heisey/ Paul/ FA CF
Hanigan C
Gregorius SS

Cueto
Latos
Chapman
Bailey
Arroyo

They'd need to find a closer and another bullpen arm. A good bench bat, maybe two.

mth123
11-10-2012, 12:52 PM
From the article above:



Stubbs, Cozart, and Leake for Upton?

I'm guessing that might get it done.

Phillips 2B
Upton LF
Votto 1B
Frazier 3B
Bruce RF
Heisey/ Paul/ FA CF
Hanigan C
Gregorius SS

Cueto
Latos
Chapman
Bailey
Arroyo

They'd need to find a closer and another bullpen arm. A good bench bat, maybe two.

No way that gets it done. Leake is not a top of the rotation picther, Cozart is a non-star level position player and Stubbs is spot player/interchangeable part. Would you trade Jay Bruce for that? If you wouldn't be willing to deal Bruce for whatever package being proposed, chances are that the D-Backs wouldn't deal Upton for the same package,

Scrap Irony
11-10-2012, 01:13 PM
No way that gets it done. Leake is not a top of the rotation picther, Cozart is a non-star level position player and Stubbs is spot player/interchangeable part. Would you trade Jay Bruce for that? If you wouldn't be willing to deal Bruce for whatever package being proposed, chances are that the D-Backs wouldn't deal Upton for the same package,

They weren't asking for a top offensive starter according to the link. They were simply asking for a starting offensive player.

And I'd argue that Cozart is above average as a SS (12th in WAR in mlb), fills their biggest hole with plus production, and is as cheap as any starter in the game.

The WAR actually works in Cozart's favor, 2.7 - 2.5 for 2012.

If you add Leake and Stubbs on top (not to mention the $9 million + owed next season, and you see plenty of reason why the DBacks might bite.

(That said, I fully expect Upton to go to Texas for Andrus, which would pave the way for Profar.)

mth123
11-10-2012, 01:19 PM
They weren't asking for a top offensive starter according to the link. They were simply asking for a starting offensive player.

And I'd argue that Cozart is above average as a SS (12th in WAR in mlb), fills their biggest hole with plus production, and is as cheap as any starter in the game.

The WAR actually works in Cozart's favor, 2.7 - 2.5 for 2012.

If you add Leake and Stubbs on top (not to mention the $9 million + owed next season, and you see plenty of reason why the DBacks might bite.

(That said, I fully expect Upton to go to Texas for Andrus, which would pave the way for Profar.)

Sub Cueto for Leake and they might do it. You could probably leave Stubbs out. I can't imagine they'd have much interest in him. The Article said TOR starter and an every day position player as a part of a deal. Cueto, Cozart and something else, maybe Marshall.

I agree on Texas. I'm guessing Andrus, Olt and Martin Perez.

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 01:25 PM
If you add Leake and Stubbs on top (not to mention the $9 million + owed next season, and you see plenty of reason why the DBacks might bite.

(That said, I fully expect Upton to go to Texas for Andrus, which would pave the way for Profar.)

First of all, kudos for the snake pun.

Secondly, I gotta think a combination of Bailey/Cozart is more enticing than just Andrus. Cozart is cheaper and has two more years of control than Andrus, and you get a solid starting pitcher. And yes, I would make that trade...

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 01:30 PM
Sub Cueto for Leake and they might do it. You could probably leave Stubbs out. I can't imagine they'd have much interest in him. The Article said TOR starter and an every day position player as a part of a deal. Cueto, Cozart and something else, maybe Marshall.

I agree on Texas. I'm guessing Andrus, Olt and Martin Perez.

Meh, if he's viewed as more of a second or third player on a championship team he isn't fetching an ace +. Bailey, Cozart, and a couple of prospects should be enough. Anything more is overpay and it is their prerogative if they'd rather hold onto Upton...

mth123
11-10-2012, 01:30 PM
I just don't see dealing a 25 year old star who is under reasonable control for three years unless its a deal that makes over the entire franchise. Andrus, Olt. Perez would do that. Leake,Cozart. and Stubbs wouldn't. They'd probably be interested in Leake or Cozart, but not as a primary piece of a deal for Upton. One of the SS for Gerardo Parra may work. Or Leake for Parra, but I wouldn't unless the Reds had another arm to play swingman/5th starter.

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 01:34 PM
Andrus, Olt. Perez would do that.

That tops anything the Reds can offer--but would the Rangers do that?

mth123
11-10-2012, 01:37 PM
That tops anything the Reds can offer--but would the Rangers do that?

If I was the Rangers, I wouldn't. OTOH, if I was the D-Backs I wouldn't take much less and certainly wouldn't drop as far as a 5th starter who we want to replace and a SS who we want to deal to make way for a kid who had never topped a .750 OPS in the minor leagues. I'd just keep Upton.

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 01:40 PM
If I was the Rangers, I wouldn't. OTOH, if I was the D-Backs I wouldn't take much less and certainly wouldn't drop as far as a 5th starter who we want to replace and a SS who we want to deal to make way for a kid who had never topped a .750 OPS in the minor leagues. I'd just keep Upton.

I don't think the Rangers would part with Olt AND Perez.

I get that you don't think they'd take Leake--but what about Bailey/Cozart/Cingrani/Rodriguez?

corkedbat
11-10-2012, 01:44 PM
Reports say that the Rangers said neither Profar or Andrus would be included and talks with the D'Back were over. Things can change though.

mth123
11-10-2012, 01:49 PM
I don't think the Rangers would part with Olt AND Perez.

I get that you don't think they'd take Leake--but what about Bailey/Cozart/Cingrani/Rodriguez?

If they think Cingrani is for real maybe.

Even for Olt, Andrus and Perez, Upton is still the best player in the deal by far. Olt looks like a six hole hitter or maybe a 5 hole on a bad team. He plays a scarce position at the moment so that gives him a little more value. Andrus is very good lead-off/role player who excels at a premium position. Perez is still a question mark. His AAA ERA is 4.86 in 176 IP. He's young and very prominsing and would be the reason the D-Backs would do it IMO, but he's not a sure thing or an established TOR starter as the article states.

Upton is still pretty young himself.

Kc61
11-10-2012, 02:27 PM
I've really come around on the Upton idea. The more I think about it, the more I hope the Reds go for him.

I think the deal would require Cozart, Leake, and Corcino. Maybe Heisey too. I think I would do it if that's the ballpark compensation for Upton in a trade.

Reds won't drop a wad of money or prospects for CF. Hamilton is the CFer of the future. So the guy they get for CF is a stopgap. Maybe a Victorino or a Crisp or someone like that. Trash them if you want, but this is Billy Hamilton's position, so any acquisition is a one-year fix.

A legitimate RH power hitter is a need. Ludwick is an acceptable answer IMO. But Upton is a better one and the Reds do have the young players to get him. If they can afford to pay him, he would upgrade the offense. He is not only a power hitter but he is a well rounded hitter who has, among other things, a good BA most years.

If the Reds make this deal they will either give Chapman a starting spot, or Cingrani, or they will acquire somebody for the rotation. A fifth starter. If Chappy starts, they will need to get a closer.

It would also mean Didi becomes the Reds SS. It's worth it, even if doesn't hit too much, because Upton compensates in the batting order.

So, I'm on the bandwagon. Let's get Upton, and we can fill in the open spots with other solid additions.

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 02:35 PM
One thing to consider: by including Bailey instead of Leake, the Reds don't devour all of their budget. Bailey is set to to make a few million bucks in 2013, and if it helps the team keep a prospect out of the trade and correspondingly sign a free agent or two, it might be worth it...

757690
11-10-2012, 03:12 PM
One thing to consider: by including Bailey instead of Leake, the Reds don't devour all of their budget. Bailey is set to to make a few million bucks in 2013, and if it helps the team keep a prospect out of the trade and correspondingly sign a free agent or two, it might be worth it...

I imagine any trade for Justin Upton would have to include Bailey, not just because it makes the most sense for the Reds, but because it's who the D-Backs would demand.

mth123
11-10-2012, 03:31 PM
I imagine any trade for Justin Upton would have to include Bailey, not just because it makes the most sense for the Reds, but because it's who the D-Backs would demand.

Here is what I think the D-Backs would need to deal Upton to the Reds:

1. Latos and Cozart

2. Cueto, Cozart and Marshall

3. Bailey, Cozart and Hamilton

They might take Didi instead of Cozart. I don't think deals for other guys are even anything they'd consider (except possibly for Todd Frazier or Aroldis Chapman instead of one of the others). They aren't going to deal Upton for cast-offs like Stubbs, Heisey or Leake. Acquiring Upton will probably hurt.

jhu1321
11-10-2012, 04:00 PM
Here is what I think the D-Backs would need to deal Upton to the Reds:

1. Latos and Cozart

2. Cueto, Cozart and Marshall

3. Bailey, Cozart and Hamilton

They might take Didi instead of Cozart. I don't think deals for other guys are even anything they'd consider (except possibly for Todd Frazier or Aroldis Chapman instead of one of the others). They aren't going to deal Upton for cast-offs like Stubbs, Heisey or Leake. Acquiring Upton will probably hurt.

Well then Upton will be in their team next year. Nobody is going to give that kind of a package.

mth123
11-10-2012, 04:02 PM
Well then Upton will be in their team next year. Nobody is going to give that kind of a package.

I think so too. They don't have to deal him, but they will if it remakes the franchise. Otherwise, he stays put.

757690
11-10-2012, 04:55 PM
I think so too. They don't have to deal him, but they will if it remakes the franchise. Otherwise, he stays put.

I think that they think they do, if that makes any sense, lol. They have been trying to trade him for awhile now, surrounded by rumors of then not being happy with his attitude and clubhouse effect. He also is due to make $40M over the next three years, which lowers his trade value.

It will be a solid middle of the rotation starter, a shortstop ready to start in 2013, and filler.

Bailey, Cozart, and Yorman should do it. No one will offer more, nor should they.

mth123
11-10-2012, 05:07 PM
I think that they think they do, if that makes any sense, lol. They have been trying to trade him for awhile now, surrounded by rumors of then not being happy with his attitude and clubhouse effect. He also is due to make $40M over the next three years, which lowers his trade value.

It will be a solid middle of the rotation starter, a shortstop ready to start in 2013, and filler.

Bailey, Cozart, and Yorman should do it. No one will offer more, nor should they.

I love how the article says it will take a TOR starter and an everyday player and everybody thinks we can get him for Mike Leake or Homer Bailey. Which Rotation are they the top of? I'm a big Bailey fan and was telling this board they were wrong when the groupthink wanted to deal him for very little. He has two years of control left. Is he the centerpiece in a deal to acquire a franchise player?

As for Upton's contract, its pretty reasonable for a 25 year old with his resume.

I repeat, if you, as a Reds' fan, would not deal Jay Bruce for any proposed package, I highly doubt the D-Backs would spend much time thinking about it for Upton. It could be Bailey if the other players are pretty high caliber. It won't be Leake, Stubbs, Heisey, etc. I think Cozart or Didi would be a solid part of a deal for them. Maybe Frazier instead if they are content with a 3B instead of a SS. Bailey is a cut below what they'd be looking for and doesn't really have enough years of control left. If they take him as the arm, they'll need to add a third name of significance. You won't be able to tack on a throw in.

I wouldn't deal Bruce for Bailey, Cozart and Yorman.

757690
11-10-2012, 05:29 PM
I love how the article says it will take a TOR starter and an everyday player and everybody thinks we can get him for Mike Leake or Homer Bailey. Which Rotation are they the top of? I'm a big Bailey fan and was telling this board they were wrong when the groupthink wanted to deal him for very little. He has two years of control left. Is he the centerpiece in a deal to acquire a franchise player?

As for Upton's contract, its pretty reasonable for a 25 year old with his resume.

I repeat, if you, as a Reds' fan, would not deal Jay Bruce for any proposed package, I highly doubt the D-Backs would spend much time thinking about it for Upton. It could be Bailey if the other players are pretty high caliber. It won't be Leake, Stubbs, Heisey, etc. I think Cozart or Didi would be a solid part of a deal for them. Maybe Frazier instead if they are content with a 3B instead of a SS. Bailey is a cut below what they'd be looking for and doesn't really have enough years of control left. If they take him as the arm, they'll need to add a third name of significance. You won't be able to tack on a throw in.

I wouldn't deal Bruce for Bailey, Cozart and Yorman.

First, the article said a TOR pitcher or an everyday position player, not both.

Second, Reds aren't unhappy with Bruce, and haven't been trying to trade him for the last few years. There have been a lot of stories about Upton not being dedicated to the game. True or not, it seems like the D-Baxks believe them. That significantly lowers his value.

The fact that the Rangers won't give up one of their two SS for him says it all. His value has dropped.

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 05:38 PM
First, the article said a TOR pitcher or an everyday position player, not both.

Second, Reds aren't unhappy with Bruce, and haven't been trying to trade him for the last few years. There have been a lot of stories about Upton not being dedicated to the game. True or not, it seems like the D-Baxks believe them. That significantly lowers his value.

The fact that the Rangers won't give up one of their two SS for him says it all. His value has dropped.

Not to mention Bruce has a more reasonable contract. Bruce still has four years with an average salary of $10.5MM left, while Upton has three years at an average of $12.75MM...

mth123
11-10-2012, 05:45 PM
First, the article said a TOR pitcher or an everyday position player, not both.

Second, Reds aren't unhappy with Bruce, and haven't been trying to trade him for the last few years. There have been a lot of stories about Upton not being dedicated to the game. True or not, it seems like the D-Baxks believe them. That significantly lowers his value.

The fact that the Rangers won't give up one of their two SS for him says it all. His value has dropped.

I stand corrected on the story. I still don't see then dealing Upton in any deal that the Reds wouldn't also consider for Bruce. We have heard these stories before, but nobody has dealt him. If they stories were true and they really were sour on him why wouldn't they have dealt him before? Maybe the stories of his availability are hogwash. Maybe he is available, but I don't think a team is going to be able to steal him. That's what these proposals are IMO.

Actually, if I was the Rangers, I'd move Profar to CF and keep my studs up the middle intact. I coud see them dealing Olt, but they really need a starter. Dempster is gone. So is Feldman. Feliz had TJ and Colby Lewis had surgery on his flexor tendon. They are probably fine with Murphy and Cruz on the OF corners and Leonys Martin coming. It would be pretty easy to find a platoon partner for Murphy (Jonny Gomes anyone). They should be looking for an arm in any deal, not Upton. If they can't get a good free agent, the should package Olt, with OF guys like Engel Beltre and maybe a Cody Buckel and go after some one like Garza.

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 05:49 PM
It depends on what Upton the Diamondbacks think they are trading, mth. The 2012 Upton had a lower WAR than Cozart, a rookie who will make the league minimum for two more seasons. In my proposal they would also get a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Bailey, and a top prospect, Cingrani...

mth123
11-10-2012, 05:59 PM
It depends on what Upton the Diamondbacks think they are trading, mth. The 2012 Upton had a lower WAR than Cozart, a rookie who will make the league minimum for two more seasons. In my proposal they would also get a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Bailey, and a top prospect, Cingrani...

Would you trade Jay Bruce for that?

*BaseClogger*
11-10-2012, 06:18 PM
Would you trade Jay Bruce for that?

No, because the Reds have different (and less) needs than the Diamondbacks. Would I consider trading Jay Bruce? If we didn't have Billy Hamilton waiting in the wings then yes, I would consider trading him. I think him getting elected to the all-star game and then winning the Silver Slugger award may be pointing to him being an overrated player whose defense has been in decline...

Plus Plus
11-11-2012, 01:13 AM
Would you trade Jay Bruce for that?

Bruce isn't coming off of a .785 OPS season.

If Justin Upton is a .785 bat going forward rather than a .900 bat, then just about anything is an overpay.

mth123
11-11-2012, 02:00 AM
Bruce isn't coming off of a .785 OPS season.

If Justin Upton is a .785 bat going forward rather than a .900 bat, then just about anything is an overpay.

Upton is 4 months younger than Bruce with a Career OPS 19 points higher than Jay. Upton's Career OBP is .357 with a .355 in 2012. Bruce has more power, but the two are pretty similar valuewise.

Vottomatic
11-11-2012, 08:57 AM
I'd offer Gregorius for Upton straight up. If they say they want more, I'd offer to include one of the following - HRod, Sharky Rogers, Lotzkar, or Villareal. If they still balk, I'd walk away.

The Reds are in the drivers seat and don't have to do anything to be good again next year.

Plus Plus
11-11-2012, 09:25 AM
Upton is 4 months younger than Bruce with a Career OPS 19 points higher than Jay. Upton's Career OBP is .357 with a .355 in 2012. Bruce has more power, but the two are pretty similar valuewise.

You're absolutely right and I agree with you.

I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.

It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.

This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.


If you think 2011 is the real Justin Upton, then this probably a deal Texas should make, as they’d be buying low on a potential superstar. However, he showed just average power in both 2010 and 2012, and average power from a corner outfielder who strikes out a decent amount isn’t usually the foundation for a true superstar. The flashes of greatness are tempting, and his ceiling is higher than Andrus’, but his floor is also lower and he comes with a higher price tag.

Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-for-andrus-who-wins/

While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.

lollipopcurve
11-11-2012, 09:53 AM
While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.

Well said. However, consider that the Reds have a legitimate surplus at SS. So, they have to make a deal there. The question becomes, could you do better than Upton? A 4-hole RH hitter is without a doubt the biggest need the organization has that does not appear to have an in-house solution anywhere close to the majors (if at all). If you take the position that the SS surplus should be used to fill that need, then I think Upton is on a very short list (Headley being the other guy, but it seems he's going to stay in SD).

But the surplus does not have to be dealt off this offseason. If Jocketty doesn't like what's out there in the trade market, he should wait. It won't hurt to keep Didi in AAA in 2013.

mth123
11-11-2012, 10:18 AM
You're absolutely right and I agree with you.

I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.

It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.

This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.



Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-for-andrus-who-wins/

While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.

When I listed what I think it would take to get Upton, there is no way I would actually make any of those deals from the Reds point of view. My point is that I think the idea that Arizona is going to move Upton for the best offer is wrong. I don't cae if no one else is bidding, you won't steal Upton for Leake, Stubbs and Cozart. Arizona can just keep him and I think they will unless they get a kings ransom that solves 2 or 3 organizational needs.

I think the desire to move Upton is exaggerated and can be chalked up to a news hungry media in an off-season with little going on so far. They have to write something, but it doesn't mean they are going to deal Upton just to deal him no matter how poor the offers are. Mike Leake as a centepiece won't get it done. Neither will Cozart.

PuffyPig
11-11-2012, 12:51 PM
Actually, if I was the Rangers, I'd move Profar to CF and keep my studs up the middle intact.

I'd never move a player off SS who actually profiles as a plus defender there, as he simply have too much value as a SS. I'd trade him first.

_Sir_Charles_
11-11-2012, 01:45 PM
Well said. However, consider that the Reds have a legitimate surplus at SS.

A legitimate surplus? This is the part I'm not getting. We've got a starter and we've got a starter in AAA on the cusp of being ready. How is THAT a surplus? After Didi, the pickings are VERY slim. I'm sorry, that's not a surplus. That's the bare minimum that every team should strive for.

mth123
11-11-2012, 02:31 PM
A legitimate surplus? This is the part I'm not getting. We've got a starter and we've got a starter in AAA on the cusp of being ready. How is THAT a surplus? After Didi, the pickings are VERY slim. I'm sorry, that's not a surplus. That's the bare minimum that every team should strive for.

Yep, good teams have good players. I don't see any need to deal Didi so we can go with a Valdez or Janish on the bench. Nothing wrong with a team having depth. Unless the Reds can solve a problem that they can't solve otherwise, I'd hold on to both of these guys. They complement each other well.

I don't think the Reds need to deal Didi or Cozart to solve LF. CF may be a little more dicey, but it would need to be an upgrade over Heisey and I'm not sure they could get that for Didi and the team would get more value by Didi spelling Cozart against a percentage of the RHP that he struggles against so much. That may actually provide more improvement compared to what you could get fo Didi vs. what the Reds could get from within.

Guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith would provide what is needed in the OF and could probably be had w/o dealing Didi.

Rojo
11-11-2012, 02:53 PM
My comp for Upton is Reggie Sanders -- a plus corner defender with medium power and speed. Sanders was always underrated because he was never what many thought he could've been -- a franchise player. Yet at the end of a long career Sanders was pretty good journeyman.

I'll take that, but I wouldn't get illusions about Upton's career because he was impactful at 20. The age calculus becomes less compelling once a player starts to acquire playing time and doesn't budge much beyond the first full season.

mth123
11-11-2012, 03:09 PM
My comp for Upton is Reggie Sanders -- a plus corner defender with medium power and speed. Sanders was always underrated because he was never what many thought he could've been -- a franchise player. Yet at the end of a long career Sanders was pretty good journeyman.

I'll take that, but I wouldn't get illusions about Upton's career because he was impactful at 20. The age calculus becomes less compelling once a player starts to acquire playing time and doesn't budge much beyond the first full season.

Good call.

Career OPS+

Reggie Sanders 115
Jay Bruce 113
Justin Upton 117

lollipopcurve
11-11-2012, 03:31 PM
After Didi, the pickings are VERY slim. I'm sorry, that's not a surplus. That's the bare minimum that every team should strive for.

It is a surplus.

Cozart/Didi + utility guy backup < Cozart/Didi + what you can get for Cozart/Didi

The deal doesn't have to happen this offseason, but it could. It could also happen a year from now. Having two starting-quality young shortstops, and keeping one on the bench, is a waste of resources.

_Sir_Charles_
11-11-2012, 07:56 PM
It is a surplus.

Cozart/Didi + utility guy backup < Cozart/Didi + what you can get for Cozart/Didi

The deal doesn't have to happen this offseason, but it could. It could also happen a year from now. Having two starting-quality young shortstops, and keeping one on the bench, is a waste of resources.

But there's the incorrect assumption. We don't know that Didi is a starting quality shortstop yet. Heck, we're still not completely sure about Zack. The glove is there for both guys, but the offense is the question. I think Zack has the better bat. But Didi is still young enough that his bat could develop more...or he could turn into Janish. Regardless on how people feel about dealing one of these guys, Gregorious needs more time in AAA most likely. But I'd be fine with him being Zack's caddy this year. The thing he needs is AB's versus quality pitching. A utility role this year seems just the ticket to see what we've got.

And your equation...you don't know that. You don't know who that utility backup guy would be and we certainly don't know what or who we could get in dealing one of them off.

lollipopcurve
11-11-2012, 08:13 PM
We don't know that Didi is a starting quality shortstop yet.

Defensively, he is plus. He'd have to be an awful hitter not to be starting quality. I'm comfortable with the assumption.


Heck, we're still not completely sure about Zack.

Yes we are.


The thing he needs is AB's versus quality pitching.

Didi needs to play everyday. Sitting on the bench would slow his development, IMO.


And your equation...you don't know that. You don't know who that utility backup guy would be and we certainly don't know what or who we could get in dealing one of them off.

Utility backups are your Wilson Valdezes and Paul Janishes. Role players. As far as what we could get in a deal that includes Cozart or Didi, it seems obvious that player would offer more than a backup SS.

Let's see how it plays out. I don't expect you to agree with me now.

PuffyPig
11-11-2012, 09:05 PM
A surplus is when you have more than you can comfortably use over an extended period of 2-3 years.

We do not have a surplus at SS.

It's not like Cozart is a "Larkin" quality SS.

corkedbat
11-11-2012, 09:07 PM
* If Chapman does move to the rotation (which now seems a good bet), then a starter seems expendable in a deal (possibly two if a starter comes in return in a deal).

* A Chapman move also makes Cingrani a prime candidate for the second lefty in the bull pen (for a season)

* While I'd rather move Leake over Bailey and Gregorious over Cozart, I would not hesitate to move Homer or Zack for the right return. Stubbs, Heisey, Ondrusek and any minor leaguer not named Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino or Stephenson are readily available too.

* I want two solid bats added to the lineup this offseason. A bat with some pop for left (I'm fine witrh Luddy) and a leadoff hitter for CF (Fowler, Span, Victorino, Pagan, Dejesus, Gardner, Ellsbury, Crisp, etc.).

corkedbat
11-11-2012, 09:18 PM
A surplus is when you have more than you can comfortably use over an extended period of 2-3 years.

We do not have a surplus at SS.

It's not like Cozart is a "Larkin" quality SS.

Juan Perez started to impress me with his bat the second half of last year. He's not exactly knocking on the door, but he did make it to Pensacola the end of last year and may well start the year there. He's played a lot of 2B, but he's also played SS. With BP in place until 2017, it wouldn't surprise me to see them use him at SS more (especially if Cozart or Didi is dealt this offseason).

lollipopcurve
11-11-2012, 09:24 PM
A surplus is when you have more than you can comfortably use over an extended period of 2-3 years.

That's your definition. Mine is when you have more than one starting-quality players, or players who can be reasonably projected to be starting quality soon, at the same position.


We do not have a surplus at SS.


I think we do. Others agree -- why else would it be reported nationally that Jocketty is willing to trade "a shortstop"?


It's not like Cozart is a "Larkin" quality SS.


Doesn't have to be to fill the position admirably. Larkin is a Hall of Famer. Cozart is a proven young starting SS who will be under control for 5 more years -- a valuable commodity.

dougdirt
11-11-2012, 10:23 PM
Cozart isn't young. He isn't old, but he isn't young.

kaldaniels
11-11-2012, 10:30 PM
Granted you can sneak a pretty weak bat into the lineup if you are a good fielding SS. But lets not act like Cozart will surely have the bat to sustain the starting job for 5 more years. Look what happened to Stubbs over 2 years. Hitting ability has been known to be diminished after a few years in the majors.

Tom Servo
11-11-2012, 10:36 PM
Cozart is like the poor man's J.J. Hardy, and even Hardy got dealt around quite a bit. The Cozart's of the baseball world have value, but they are replaceable.

Steve4192
11-11-2012, 10:46 PM
* While I'd rather move Leake over Bailey and Gregorious over Cozart, I would not hesitate to move Homer or Zack for the right return. Stubbs, Heisey, Ondrusek and any minor leaguer not named Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino or Stephenson are readily available too.


None of those guys are off limits as far as I am concerned. You have to give quality to get quality. No one is going to trade the Reds a legit contributor for a package of fringe prospects and guys at the bottom on of the MLB roster. If you want to get a big-time contributor, you are going to have to give up quality in return. I'd be stoked if the Reds gave up some of those prospect to land another Latos-caliber player. The Reds gave up three recent first-round draft picks to land Latos and I couldn't be happier.

Vottomatic
11-11-2012, 11:29 PM
Geez. I thought Cozart did pretty well for a rookie SS. I know he needs to improve, but geez. Tough crowd. Tough crowd.

dougdirt
11-12-2012, 01:52 AM
Geez. I thought Cozart did pretty well for a rookie SS. I know he needs to improve, but geez. Tough crowd. Tough crowd.

That is the thing though, he is already at an age where guys usually don't really improve.

kaldaniels
11-12-2012, 01:58 AM
That is the thing though, he is already at an age where guys usually don't really improve.

What do you make of Cozarts 2.7 WAR last year Doug? That seems a bit high to me. (For a guy with a .288 obp)

gilpdawg
11-12-2012, 02:58 AM
I spent close to a decade hoping the Reds would go after Dave Martinez. And you're right, Parra's a similar player.

So you were really happy in 1992?

Of course he had a down year that year.

M2
11-12-2012, 11:22 AM
So you were really happy in 1992?

Of course he had a down year that year.

I was pretty ecstatic. That was a fun team. Too bad the wild card was still a few years away.

dunner13
11-12-2012, 11:28 AM
Cozart isn't barry larkin but theres not a lot of starting SS's in the league right now that are. Look around, I would say Cozart is at least average if not slightly above average then add in that hes cheap and he has some decent trade value.

Benihana
11-12-2012, 11:42 AM
I think JJ Hardy is a good comp for Cozart.

I fear that Janish could be a comp for DiDi. Pokey Reese is probably the upside case.

M2
11-12-2012, 12:16 PM
I fear that Janish could be a comp for DiDi. Pokey Reese is probably the upside case.

I'd say Erick Aybar (with less speed) is his upside. The gloves are comparable. The difference is Aybar had some juicy minor league numbers that he hasn't been able to duplicate in the majors. Minor league Gregorius hits like major league Aybar. No idea if that will translate. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.

Obviously any offensive cipher at SS would be a potential downside comp.

One guy who might be a decent offensive comparison point is Bill Spiers from his Milwaukee days (Gregorius has more glove). Spiers never could hit a lefty and didn't add much value on the bases, but he delivered the bare minimum. Spiers had a flourish in the late '90s after he turned 30, which really looks like a successful application of chemistry given what we now know about baseball history.

Puffy
11-12-2012, 03:48 PM
I love how the article says it will take a TOR starter and an everyday player

That is the second time you have stated that. That would be relevant to this discussion if the article actually said what you keep misstating. From article:

" Addressing another trade rumor, Hall said that it's too early to tell if outfielder Justin Upton will be moved this offseason. Upton is due to make $9.75 million next year, $14.25 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in '15.

"The great thing about Justin is that he's been through this a couple of years, so he really expects it," Hall said. "If nothing happens and he's still in a D-backs' uniform, we will be fine. It's all part of the game. I think he's so mature now to when he first entered the league. If this had happened back then, maybe he would react differently, but he handles it so well and it's not an issue."

According to reports, the D-backs would need an everyday position player or top-of-the-rotation pitcher in return as part of a deal for Upton."


An everyday position player OR a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. There is a big difference between and/or.

Puffy
11-12-2012, 03:49 PM
Whoops - sorry!! The and/or has already been discussed and addressed.

I will go back to being quiet now!

lollipopcurve
11-12-2012, 03:56 PM
The thing about Didi is that he is very athletic, even for a SS, with good instincts. Along with Profar and Simmons, he is in this first wave of shortstops out of Curacao -- you might count Bogaerts too, but it's unclear if he can stay at SS -- and these guys are all going to be jockeying with one another in friendly competition. In other words, there is healthy upside here, and while I am a Cozart fan, I have to think Didi is probably favored, both by teams looking to trade for a shortstop, and by the Reds themselves. I know Baker likes him a lot.

Rojo
11-12-2012, 05:29 PM
I'm having a hard time comping Gregorius. He's shown a smidge of power that might grow as he fills out. He's not an OB machine but he's not alergic to walks either. By all accounts he's got atheleticism to spare but has been unremarkable on the base paths. He's contact-y.

IDK, Mike Bordick?

westofyou
11-12-2012, 05:38 PM
I'm having a hard time comping Gregorius. He's shown a smidge of power that might grow as he fills out. He's not an OB machine but he's not alergic to walks either. By all accounts he's got atheleticism to spare but has been unremarkable on the base paths. He's contact-y.

IDK, Mike Bordick?

Sounds an awful lot like Leo Cardenas

HokieRed
11-12-2012, 07:09 PM
Sounds an awful lot like Leo Cardenas

That would be very acceptable.

Vottomatic
11-12-2012, 11:13 PM
A TOR starter and an everyday player?

No thanks. And I think 'Zona will be sorry if they don't trade Upton. Clearly it's a bad marriage that will continue to deteriorate. And I'd bet his value diminishes with his unhappiness, and theirs.

I'd trade Gregorius and another minor leaguer straight up, and throw in Stubbs. That's the most I'd do.

M2
11-12-2012, 11:34 PM
The thing about Didi is that he is very athletic, even for a SS, with good instincts.

He is athletic, but I ask again "Why doesn't he run?"

lollipopcurve
11-13-2012, 07:59 AM
He is athletic, but I ask again "Why doesn't he run?"

It's a good question.

_Sir_Charles_
11-13-2012, 11:39 AM
That would be very acceptable.

Quite the understatement. I'd be doing backflips if he turned into a Cardenas. And I'm nearly 50, so a backflip would be pretty impressive. :O)

Reds/Flyers Fan
11-13-2012, 12:17 PM
The Rangers are hot on the trail of Justin Upton, per mlbtraderumors, and they're willing to part with top prospect Mike Olt to get him.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/braves-turned-down-simmons-for-olt-swap.html

Benihana
11-13-2012, 12:35 PM
The Rangers are hot on the trail of Justin Upton, per mlbtraderumors, and they're willing to part with top prospect Mike Olt to get him.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/braves-turned-down-simmons-for-olt-swap.html

Braves turned down Simmons for Olt. D'backs want a young SS but Rangers won't deal Andrus or Profar, so they're trying to acquire a SS to flip for Upton.

Obviously I've made my preferences clear that I'd love for the Reds to trade for Justin Upton.

However, this gave me a "backup" idea: assuming the Reds for whatever reason can't agree on a deal for Upton, how about offering Gregorius to the Rangers for Olt? Move Frazier to LF, and use our budget to sign a CF to a one or two year deal.

CF Free Agent (Torii Hunter?)
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF Frazier
RF Bruce
3B Olt
C Mesoraco/Hanigan
SS Cozart

If/when Hamilton forces his way to Cincy, Reds will then have flexibility to deal one of Hunter/Frazier/Olt to fill another need.

Rojo
11-13-2012, 02:14 PM
He is athletic, but I ask again "Why doesn't he run?"

He's .500 on the basepaths since he hit AA. So not running has been a wise choice. But if he's quick, then he must just not read pitchers or get horrible jumps. Some clever coaching should be on tap.

M2
11-13-2012, 02:41 PM
The D-Backs have a kid 3B named Matt Davidson, who projects as a big-time power hitter. He'll be in AAA in 2013 at age 22. I'd be surprised if they figure the difference him and Olt is worth Upton.

Benihana
11-13-2012, 02:56 PM
The D-Backs have a kid 3B named Matt Davidson, who projects as a big-time power hitter. He'll be in AAA in 2013 at age 22. I'd be surprised if they figure the difference him and Olt is worth Upton.

I agree and wasn't implying the D'backs had any interest in Olt.

The Rangers offered Olt to Atlanta to acquire a young SS that they could package in a deal for Upton. My first choice would be for the Reds to get Upton. As a backup in case they couldn't agree to a deal, would be for the Reds to ship one of our young SS to Texas for Olt. Reds could keep Olt (moving Frazier to LF), and the Rangers could in turn package the young SS along with whatever other pieces they could to get Upton.

M2
11-13-2012, 03:14 PM
I agree and wasn't implying the D'backs had any interest in Olt.

The Rangers offered Olt to Atlanta to acquire a young SS that they could package in a deal for Upton. My first choice would be for the Reds to get Upton. As a backup in case they couldn't agree to a deal, would be for the Reds to ship one of our young SS to Texas for Olt. Reds could keep Olt (moving Frazier to LF), and the Rangers could in turn package the young SS along with whatever other pieces they could to get Upton.

My cursory reading skills are in serious decline. It's not a bad idea you've got there. Olt's got a sweet glove on top of his power and patience, though his bird timer may not pop for another year or so. It would also be nice to see him play closer to sea level just to make sure he doesn't have Dallas McPherson Syndrome.

The more I look at what the D-Backs have, the more stunned I am the team is even considering moving Upton. The organization has pitchers stacked like cord wood. What is needs is star offensive talent, and it's not going to find a more likely candidate than Upton.