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View Full Version : Buster Posey wins NL MVP



RedsManRick
11-15-2012, 06:34 PM
http://bbwaa.com/12-nl-mvp/

Reds finish 10th (Bruce), 12th (Chapman), 13th (Phillips) and 14th (Votto).

mattfeet
11-15-2012, 08:05 PM
Wow. Honestly that's a pretty impressive showing by the Reds.

oneupper
11-16-2012, 08:55 AM
Votto, despite being out with injuries so much, actually led all MLB hitters in WPA. He just doesn't make that many outs.

_Sir_Charles_
11-16-2012, 09:27 AM
Votto, despite being out with injuries so much, actually led all MLB hitters in WPA. He just doesn't make that many outs.

*busts out his English-to-Sabrespeak dictionary*

WPA means Wins Probability Added. Knowing the acronym helps some, but for the most part I remain in the dark.

nate
11-16-2012, 09:40 AM
*busts out his English-to-Sabrespeak dictionary*

WPA means Wins Probability Added. Knowing the acronym helps some, but for the most part I remain in the dark.

Read about it here (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/), it's very interesting.

Key point:


For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Rays’ win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobrist’s WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his team’s win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 – .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.

_Sir_Charles_
11-16-2012, 09:46 AM
I actually was reading about it Nate. Thanks though. I only posted because it might be a good idea to not just throw in acronyms that aren't that commonly known outside the sabre-circle. Just a suggestion.

And upon a cursory glance thus far, it's quite impressive that Joey led the league in this stat especially since it's a counting stat basically.

oneupper
11-16-2012, 10:36 AM
I actually was reading about it Nate. Thanks though. I only posted because it might be a good idea to not just throw in acronyms that aren't that commonly known outside the sabre-circle. Just a suggestion.

And upon a cursory glance thus far, it's quite impressive that Joey led the league in this stat especially since it's a counting stat basically.

Sorry. Guilty as charged. Yeah, its a counting stat and the MVP candidates in a given year are normally at the top of the leader board.

FWIW Trout was top in the AL, but Cabrera wasn't far back.

RedsManRick
11-16-2012, 11:53 AM
From a simple raw counting standpoint, Joey Votto reached base 243 times last year, 23rd in MLB. He did that in 475 plate appearances. Of the people above him on the list, the next lowest PA total was Buster Posey, with 610 -- 135 more plate appearances than Votto. More than half of the people who reached base more times had at least 200 more plate appearances than Votto did. It's hard to overstate how impressive his OBP was.

If Votto kept up his production over the ~200 PA that he missed because of the injury, he would have have led the NL in WAR (8.4 fWAR compared to Posey's 8.0, 8.0 brWAR to Posey's 7.2). When he played, Votto was the best player in the NL in 2012. He just didn't play enough.

PuffyPig
11-16-2012, 03:51 PM
When he played, Votto was the best player in the NL in 2012.

I assume you are excluding all the Cardinals from that statement, especially "Mr. Clutch", Dan Descalso?.

Rojo
11-16-2012, 04:32 PM
2 first place votes for Yadier. What were those votes based on: the lower BA? the fewer HR's and RBI? the lack of a ring?

westofyou
11-16-2012, 04:33 PM
2 first place votes for Yadier. What were those votes based on: the lower BA? the fewer HR's and RBI? the lack of a ring?

Votes are before the playoffs, thus he had a ring

I bet it was the awesome neck tat

Rojo
11-16-2012, 05:47 PM
Votes are before the playoffs, thus he had a ring

I bet it was the awesome neck tat

Or the pitch-framing Magick!

GADawg
11-16-2012, 07:00 PM
i wish i could like Buster Posey but all the to do from Sabean and the Giants(and Posey I suppose as well) over him getting run over at the plate(like real catchers do from time to time)has turned me against him.....did I say "to do"? I meant whining

nate
11-16-2012, 08:07 PM
From a simple raw counting standpoint, Joey Votto reached base 243 times last year, 23rd in MLB. He did that in 475 plate appearances. Of the people above him on the list, the next lowest PA total was Buster Posey, with 610 -- 135 more plate appearances than Votto. More than half of the people who reached base more times had at least 200 more plate appearances than Votto did. It's hard to overstate how impressive his OBP was.

If Votto kept up his production over the ~200 PA that he missed because of the injury, he would have have led the NL in WAR (8.4 fWAR compared to Posey's 8.0, 8.0 brWAR to Posey's 7.2). When he played, Votto was the best player in the NL in 2012. He just didn't play enough.

Wow.

PuffyPig
11-16-2012, 08:28 PM
If|Votto had played 150 games at thew same level of production as he did in his other games, he would have been a shoe in for the MVP.

Once McCutheon fell off the table and the Brewers failed to contend, there went Votto's only competition.

Posey was a deserving winner, but he was 4th until the other events happened.

MikeThierry
11-19-2012, 03:46 PM
2 first place votes for Yadier. What were those votes based on: the lower BA? the fewer HR's and RBI? the lack of a ring?

Epically amazing defense maybe? By no means should Molina been the MVP. Posey deserved it. However, to overlook how Molina changes the game on defense is missing the mark in my opinion. I find it odd how some who have argued Trout being MVP in other threads on here for being a complete player now have a different opinion or want to minimize what Yadi did on both offense and defense. I know he's a Cardinal but objectivity is the best medicine in this discussion.

dougdirt
11-19-2012, 04:00 PM
It hurts me to say this, but I think you probably could make a solid argument that Molina could have been the MVP.

I am going to go shower for an hour and a half now. I feel dirty.

MikeThierry
11-19-2012, 04:05 PM
It hurts me to say this, but I think you probably could make a solid argument that Molina could have been the MVP.

I am going to go shower for an hour and a half now. I feel dirty.

I think the only feather Molina has in his cap over Posey is that Posey started 32 games at positions other than catcher where as Molina played catcher the whole year. Other than that, I can't think of any legit argument to say he had a better year than Posey. Posey having the best OPS+ in the league really puts him above everyone else in the NL.

PuffyPig
11-19-2012, 04:07 PM
It hurts me to say this, but I think you probably could make a solid argument that Molina could have been the MVP.

I am going to go shower for an hour and a half now. I feel dirty.


But he clearly wasn't the best player?

He had only the 6th best WAR in the NL.

dougdirt
11-19-2012, 04:12 PM
But he clearly wasn't the best player?

He had only the 6th best WAR in the NL.

WAR has nothing to do with it. I don't believe the NL had a "clear" best player this year. It had a rather large group of guys in the same range.

Mike, Posey spending time at first base and Molina being quite a bit better as a defender is the argument I would make that would draw the two together.

MikeThierry
11-19-2012, 04:21 PM
But he clearly wasn't the best player?

He had only the 6th best WAR in the NL.

Even fangraphs admits that the catcher position is one of the toughest positions to calculate. This is from the Fangraphs writeup on how they evaluate WAR:

"The other important point to make here is that you’ll notice that catchers have no values entered in the Fielding portion of their Win Values. Evaluating catcher defense is something we’re simply not very good at right now, and while there are strides being made (including a great article by Tom Tango in the 2009 Hardball Times Annual), there’s a lot of things that we haven’t figured out how to quantify yet. So, we’ve just left catchers alone, ranking them all as league average, and will let you all adjust their final win value however you’d like to reflect their defensive value relative to other catchers.

If you think Joe Mauer‘s catching abilities and leadership are worth one win, just add one win to what we display as his win value here. Quantifying catching defense is something that we just haven’t figured out yet, and so we’re not pretending that we have. Consider it an opportunity to fill in the blanks. "

Since fangraphs calculates it's fielding WAR based on UZR and there is no such thing as UZR for catchers, I tend to give catchers more lattitude in the WAR area (at least on fangraphs). It's simply a difficult position to see what kind of value they add to their team. That's why I find what Buster Posey did this season amazing. He lead the NL in WAR at a position that WAR has a hard time determining with full accuracy.

westofyou
11-19-2012, 04:25 PM
WAR has nothing to do with it. I don't believe the NL had a "clear" best player this year. It had a rather large group of guys in the same range.

Mike, Posey spending time at first base and Molina being quite a bit better as a defender is the argument I would make that would draw the two together.

You need to outline your arguments so we can keep up with the rules for determining the best, these moving goal posts are killing my feet

MikeThierry
11-19-2012, 04:38 PM
You need to outline your arguments so we can keep up with the rules for determining the best, these moving goal posts are killing my feet

Isn't that kind of evidence that determining the best player is actually very difficult and that one single metric cannot be used?

dougdirt
11-19-2012, 04:47 PM
You need to outline your arguments so we can keep up with the rules for determining the best, these moving goal posts are killing my feet

I don't think I have discussed WAR as any reasoning to vote for anyone as the MVP, except when I broke down how much the Tigers and Angels each had as a team to show roughly how much each player had in terms of team WAR. I don't really use WAR that often to compare players. I think WAR is a decent guide at times, but needs to be used as a bit of a guide, then you go further into value from there.

MikeThierry
11-19-2012, 04:52 PM
I don't think I have discussed WAR as any reasoning to vote for anyone as the MVP, except when I broke down how much the Tigers and Angels each had as a team to show roughly how much each player had in terms of team WAR. I don't really use WAR that often to compare players. I think WAR is a decent guide at times, but needs to be used as a bit of a guide, then you go further into value from there.

That's sort of how I use WAR. I love using WAR when it comes to free agency. It's a good metric to use as to what general level of production you will get from gaining a player in a trade or free agency. However, on a micro level, I don't know if it's an effecitve tool to use. Obviously a 5 WAR player is going to be significantly better than a 1 WAR player but it's harder to tell how a 5 WAR player will be better than a 4.0 or 4.5 WAR player.

PuffyPig
11-19-2012, 05:34 PM
You could convince me that Molina was extremely valuable to his team (maybe even the most valuable), but he certrainly wasn't the best player in the NL last year.

dougdirt
11-19-2012, 05:36 PM
You could convince me that Molina was extremely valuable to his team (maybe even the most valuable), but he certrainly wasn't the best player in the NL last year.

That depends on how much emphasis you want to place on pitch framing/getting balls turned into strikes.

MikeThierry
11-19-2012, 06:01 PM
You could convince me that Molina was extremely valuable to his team (maybe even the most valuable), but he certrainly wasn't the best player in the NL last year.

I agree with that. My point in this discussion is that people shouldn't minimize the season Molina had, if people want to remain objective on the matter. There is a good reason why Molina got some first place votes. That's all I'm really saying.

Patrick Bateman
11-19-2012, 07:55 PM
I know he's a Cardinal but objectivity is the best medicine in this discussion.

I've seen you use the word "objective" on this board a few times now when it comes to you defending Cardinals players.

Do you not see the irony in that?

Wonderful Monds
11-19-2012, 10:00 PM
I've seen you use the word "objective" on this board a few times now when it comes to you defending Cardinals players.

Do you not see the irony in that?

I think that I personally am being blinded from the factual greatness of everything St. Louis Cardinal related due to my own massive amount of butthurt.

Just to speak for myself.

PuffyPig
11-20-2012, 09:01 AM
That depends on how much emphasis you want to place on pitch framing/getting balls turned into strikes.

And you are measuring that how?

Rojo
11-20-2012, 12:41 PM
There is a good reason why Molina got some first place votes.

Like, say, you write for a St. Louis newspaper.

Yes, Molina gives good glove. I'd vote for him, just not first place when I have a choice of another catcher who put up way better numbers and became the first catcher to win a batting title since Lombardi. And Posey isn't Ted Simmons behind the dish.

dougdirt
11-20-2012, 12:43 PM
And you are measuring that how?

check out the "why we need computers calling balls and strikes" thread.

MikeThierry
11-20-2012, 12:52 PM
Like, say, you write for a St. Louis newspaper.

Yes, Molina gives good glove. I'd vote for him, just not first place when I have a choice of another catcher who put up way better numbers and became the first catcher to win a batting title since Lombardi. And Posey isn't Ted Simmons behind the dish.

That's fine except for the fact that the two voters who voted for him don't work for a STL Newspaper. Both of the writers who voted for Molina oddly enough worked in the NY region. Joe Strauss and Rick Hummel from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch both voted for Posey.

MikeThierry
11-20-2012, 12:57 PM
I've seen you use the word "objective" on this board a few times now when it comes to you defending Cardinals players.

Do you not see the irony in that?

Why is it ironic to ask for objectivity with Cardinals players on here? You never see me make fun of Reds players on here. In fact, I'm generally objective when it comes to Reds players. My only real criticism for the Reds have been using Scott Rolen. Other than that, I think I've been more than complimentary to Reds players. I don't hate Reds players simply because their Reds players like many posters do for Cardinals players.

Now, my objectivity goes out the window when we talk about Cubs players and there's a good reason why I'm not involved with those despicable forums from Chicago.

Patrick Bateman
11-20-2012, 01:39 PM
Why is it ironic to ask for objectivity with Cardinals players on here? You never see me make fun of Reds players on here. In fact, I'm generally objective when it comes to Reds players. My only real criticism for the Reds have been using Scott Rolen. Other than that, I think I've been more than complimentary to Reds players. I don't hate Reds players simply because their Reds players like many posters do for Cardinals players.

Now, my objectivity goes out the window when we talk about Cubs players and there's a good reason why I'm not involved with those despicable forums from Chicago.

It's ironic because I think it would be fair to say that neither you nor Redszone is particularly objective when it comes to the Cards.

I can say that you more than anyone, most certainly, is not. And that's not a bad thing. You are a Cards fan after all. I certainly can't blame you for being as optimistic as possible when it comes to the Cards.

MikeThierry
11-20-2012, 01:47 PM
It's ironic because I think it would be fair to say that neither you nor Redszone is particularly objective when it comes to the Cards.

I can say that you more than anyone, most certainly, is not. And that's not a bad thing. You are a Cards fan after all. I certainly can't blame you for being as optimistic as possible when it comes to the Cards.

I know that. My point was to be objective to opposing teams. I don't blame Reds fans for hyping their players. I do it with the Cardinals. All fans do it with their favorite teams. All I'm asking is objectivity when it comes to rivals. Like I said, I try to be as objective as possible to Reds players on here. I don't expect you to love Chris Carpenter but when discussing awards and things like that, I think it's kind of a different type of discussion. For example, Darwin Barney fully deserved the Gold Glove at second but he is still the player I like the least. I gave him props for his play. It still doesn't change the fact he plays for an abortion of a baseball team that deserves to be contracted.